and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. jon: i am jon erlichman. welcome to "bloomberg markets". sonali: and i am shelley bassett. we have green on the screen today. we needed that. we are looking at the s&p 500 up half of 1%. if it holds throughout the day, you're looking at an s&p back in the green for the week. that would be the fifth straight week in a row. the nasdaq 100 only up 0.2% and what does that mean? we are about flat on the week. a little negative, but it still has the chance. we are also looking at the two-year yield. we are watching a 13 basis point

move lower in that two-year yield. 10-year yield down 11 basis points. pretty drastic moves today. jon: let's also go under the hood within the technology sector which you referenced. we are seeing cautionary points. dell shares down over 4.5% after the outlook for the company and the financial picture is a struggle point right now. tesla shares off 0.5%. we are still getting reactions from the cyber truck launch. i also wanted to show you what is happening with shares of j&j. we are going to talk about the drug sector later in the program. in that case, bullish comments from ubs have in helping the stock to the tune of 1.3%. a lot of uncertainty around the economy but you have got all to beauty -- ulta beauty up 10.5%.

seems pretty resilient these days. sonali: markets continue to believe the fed is done hiking interest rates and is pricing in further rate cuts. here is what fed chair powell said earlier today. chair powell: the strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate up and well into restrictive territory, by which we mean tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity than inflation. monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag in the full effects of tightening have not yet been felt. jon: we want to bring in fs investments chief u.s. economist lara rhame. powell also saying it would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. the caveat is still there.

overall, what did you take away from the message today? lara: powell's message, i think, is pretty clear. the markets have priced in over four rate cuts next year and they have moved up that timing to start the first quarter. i think for the fed that probably felt like a quick about-face considering as recently as september the dot plot implied another rate hike this quarter. i thing they are backing off that last rate hike but to them the idea that they are going to quickly cut is something they want to push back against. that said, we have seen the bond market. they do not believe the fed yet, or maybe they are expecting a much worse economic outlook than the fed believes. sonali: it is kind of like rain hitting the water. you have the droplets and then the ripple effect throughout the pond. you see those rate cut expectations seeping into the market even while powell is

trying to push back. at what point does the market doing too much work for the fed? lara: i think we are kind of at that tipping point. i would argue that we kind of see the extent of the non-recessionary rally. you can easily imagine the fed surgically cutting interest rates later next year if the economy slows a little bit from here. but the idea that they are just going to come in, push rates down 100 basis points unless there is a deeper decline, to me, is a lot to ask of monetary policy makers. at a time when inflation is better. they cannot claim victory. the idea that we are not going to have a recession next year is very solid given slower growth but not a contraction. i think the bond move reflecting

that has already happened. for yields to fall you have to start pricing in a bad economic outlook. jon: let's get into the numbers surrounding inflation. the fed chair some of the progress, noting over the six months ending in october core inflation, leaving out food and energy, running at an annual rate of 2.5%. the overall goal is that 2% level. at what point do you think we are ok with seeing policy that is restrictive enough that whether you are right at 2% or thereabouts that the job and the fight against inflation has been effective? lara: i think we have to look at both inflation and the labor market. what we have seen from the unemployment rate is a slow increase from 3.4% up to 3.9%. we have seen wages decelerate. i think the whole picture of inflation, wages, and the unemployment rate all point to a

lot of progress over the last six months. i think from here you would need progress on all three fronts to really get the fed to declare victory. the reality is that some of these pieces like energy are volatile and some things like rents have fallen, but look like they may actually start to bounce again in the first or second quarter. you add it all up and inflation may not fit so easily into that 2% box. sonali: speaking of, the rent part of the story is significant. oil has been quite volatile. how much of a risk is there every acceleration of inflation? lara: i am probably off consensus in being worried about that. i want to be clear. even a bounce of core inflation to 3%, if it comes down to 2% and rises again, would be

problematic for the fed. the resting heart rate of u.s. inflation is probably already around 2.7%. we need that really severe deflation coming from goods to keep inflation below 2% or at 2%. if we do not get it, i think we still see supply chains work themselves out. we are still seeing elevated risk from trade wars, trade reallocation. i think all of those things mean inflation could be persistently higher. i think it means the fed is going to have to cut rates less next year. jon: you talked about the employment picture. one other thing we have heard over the course of this year is excess savings have kept the consumer in the game. what is that period between a change in the employment picture and the level of those savings going forward? lara: i think next year is going to be interesting.

consumers are going to be relying less on those excess savings and consumption is going to a line with income, like it does. i think the irony of this is consumers may feel a little bit better about the economy given that they have been frustrated with having to draw down their savings. as that process transitions to focusing on income the consumption may slow, but consumers may feel better about their household finances. jon: great to have you back with us. we want to turn to canada's economy because we have got news in this country today on the jobs front. 25,000 jobs added the month of november. we saw the unemployment rate on the rise at 5.8%. the highest level in almost a couple of years. it comes at a time when the population in canada has been on the rise as well. coupled with the fact we saw

weak third-quarter data published yesterday. erik hertzberg joins us from ottawa. this is kind of an interesting situation where it seems there is a heavily discounting market on the jobs creation just because the size of the labor pool has been growing in canada this year. erik: that is exactly it. before the pandemic and before these population gains we would've looked at the 25,000 job gain as quite positive news. but it does have to be tempered and the positivity has to be restrained by the fact the population is growing. the labor force grew 36,000. that pushed up the unemployment rate to 5.8%. in the last seven months, we have seen an 80-basis point increase in unemployment. that is typically something that we see only during recessions. on top of that we had the hours

worked that fell 0.7% on the month. that is another slowing sign for gdp. you couple that with the gdp report we got yesterday, that contraction of 1.1% annualized in the third quarter, and the outlook looking weak. it seems growth is starting to stall in canada. jon: we are talking about the jobs market. more broadly speaking, we are seeing some of the big banks commit to job cuts. we have seen that with td bank. on interest rate policy we are going to see the bank of canada make another decision next week. they are not anticipated to make a change for now but there are increasing expectations for rate cuts heading into next year. erik: that's exactly it. you see those bets starting to change in line with what folks are expecting in the united states. june looks like the most likely time the bank of canada is good to start cutting. i think right now they are going to continue to look at the data cautiously.

remember, core inflation is something that is still quite elevated above target and that is something they need to see getting down to 2% before they want to move. they have the stalling economy. it looks like we are headed into excess supply in canada. you see the job market loosening as we have seen evidence of today. but we need to see that translated into slower inflation before they signal anything. he does not want to take the risk like he did at the beginning of this year by declaring this is the end. he is going to keep rate hikes on the table probably until he sees inflation coming down quite rapidly. sonali: erik hertzberg, thank you for your time. news in the u.s. labor market. bny mellon plans to raise minimum wage 25% in march. it is the company's third boost in three weirs. they also expanded mental health resources for part of their new employee program.

why is this interesting? when we think about big financial companies we think about investment bankers and the multimillion dollar paychecks. but really what happens at the banks is there are tons of employees that are minimum wage. bank of america, for example, in recent years has lifted theirs to $25 or more. this $22.50 level for bank of america and bny are pretty standard. the ceo's are taking to congress next week as well. you can be sure they will be asked about things like this. jon: we will watch that closely. the inflation story something we are tracking through the wage lens, but as our last guest said, we are likely going to see americans focusing more on their income next year as opposed to savings. when we come back, shares of

pfizer have been under pressure today. the second weight loss setback this year. this is bloomberg. ♪ with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble, you're concerned that it's going to cost you money. to this day i only paid what i had to pay for the device... when i go back, everything is covered. there's so much you're missing by not having hearing aids. we'll find you a hearing aid that fits your lifestyle and budget. we've extended our black friday sale. don't miss out on our best deal of the year! call 1-800-miracle now.

jon: this is "bloomberg markets" . i am jon erlichman with sonali basak. we've been tracking shares of pfizer. they have fallen the most on an intraday basis and more than three years after dropping the development of a twice daily weight loss pill. results from mid-stage trials showing a high rate of side effects. pfizer and others struggling to break into the lucrative obesity market, which is projected to reach $100 billion within seven years. let's bring in medicine bullard

who has been reporting on this story -- madison bullard who has been reporting on this story. it is locked up by the likes of novo nordisk and eli lilly. madison: it is these companies, pfizer and astrazeneca, looking at weight loss pills as an inroad into this market that novo nordisk and eli lilly are dominating. what we have seen today with pfizer is developing a weight loss pill is a little harder than it may seem and it might take more time and more difficult for these other drugmakers to break into this market than we originally thought. sonali: how much is first mover advantage a big component? the fact that pfizer's daily drop is more than $7 billion off its market cap because of this one issue for a massive pharma conglomerate. why does this matter so much? madison: pfizer has been trying to look beyond covid and figure

out what its future is beyond covid. obviously, the covert shots and the covid pills developed during the pandemic saved millions of lives and were important for the business. but now the demand has gone down so much that they have been looking toward the next big thing. right now, weight loss drugs is the big thing in pharma. but i think that is why we are seeing such a big reaction the market to this data and this announcement, because it sort of speaks to this bigger picture of what is happening at pfizer. the company really struggling to figure out what is next. jon: in your story today you talk about the path forward from here. what will pfizer be working on from here on out? madison: pfizer is continuing to develop a once daily version of this pill, the pill they are discontinuing due to side effects like nausea and vomiting that were seen in a lot of patients. they are going to continue to

develop this once a day version and there is more data that will be expected in the first half of 2024. that is going to inform the future forward for pfizer in terms of weight loss, at least in the near term. jon: madison, thank you very much. madison muller on the pfizer story. we want to get to get news coming out right now on ford. the company ceo, jim farley, just saying on x that in october the company had a record month for f-150 lighting sales and they broke another record with november being the best ever sales month for lighting overall. 4400 electric vehicle trucks, which they described as 100% increase from last year. also teasing there will be more ev sales news on monday. this a day after we saw the tesla launch of the cyber truck where there was a lot of focus on excitement around the

fast-growing electric vehicle truck market. sonali: a lot of news in the car world. good news all around. coming up, we talk about binance. vip's got a sneak peek of the company's historical settlement. we are going to talk about that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the binance settlement was great for their company and the industry. i wish richard well. i think they derisked in a lot of ways. sonali: this is "bloomberg markets". i am sonali basak with jon erlichman. bloomberg has learned binance

officials held a dinner in singapore last september with a few dozen market makers dubbed vip's. during the dinner they discussed the company's legal woes and the likelihood of settlement. allison joins us on this. why does this dinner matter? allison: it is a sign there were some traders that were getting a hit or sneak peek of what was to come. we know this was held at a very exclusive members only club in singapore that traders had raised concerned about what the legal outlook might be in the point was to ease those concerns. we know this $4 billion number came up in the traders walked away with the understanding this would be the price to pay for settling. but i think there were some people that knew about this before it was actually announced earlier this month or in november. jon: it is very in-depth

reporting you have done. what i also thought was interesting is that it appears already we are seeing some outreach from the company on the road ahead from here. allyson: yeah. the story sort of ends with richard, the new ceo, giving a message to the vip institutional clients of they are bullish on the future of the company, things are going to be moving forward. we also know the industry is really reacting positively to this as well. it was kind of a weight people were expecting and now that it is here and there is a settlement the company is surviving. people are taking that positively. sonali: you have seen coinbase in the first days after the settlement really rise pretty significantly. the expectation under some of this was the idea that coinbase could take on more business.

they are in the united states. they are more compliant even though they are in this dispute. in the last couple of days they have taken a bigger hit to their stock as well. how would you describe what is going on between the onshore u.s. exchange versus the large global, international exchange and the ability to compete in that manner? allyson: you know, coinbase, they still face their own legal headwinds from this sec action regarding claims they should have been registered with the agency in order to trade. there are still some things we have to wait for. but i think they are benefiting in the fact that the industry is feeling some relief that they are moving forward from the binance situation. and we are seeing the price of bitcoin is benefiting positively as well. there are some expecting a

bitcoin exchange traded fund could be approved in the next month or so. we are still waiting to hear from the sec on that. there is some optimism around the industry at the moment. jon: before we let you go, one important detail. the growth of binance was something that obviously got the attention of regulators in the first place. allyson: yes. i have spoken to one of the irs officials involved in the investigation and they said the fact the company had more than $1 billion in daily trading volume within its first year really spark interest. they were interested on how that could be. they noticed there were a lot of u.s. customers using the platform as well. another official at the treasury department tells me they were -- it was their own advertising that got them in hot water. basically saying you can open certain accounts without identity verification checks. jon: thank you very much. helpful reporting on the binance

story. we want to go back to the markets. we are watching what is happening in the bond market. the two-yearly yield at the lowest level since june. for sonali basak, i am jon erlichman. this is bloomberg. ♪ a few years ago, ey told me there's no electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud.

>> score one for the bundles. score five for equities from bonds. i am romaine bostick. katie: i am katie greifeld. the closing bell in the u.s. with two hours to go, looking at a rally. s&p 500 up .4%. big tech hanging on up .1%. all the action is in the bond market. take a look at the 10 year treasury yield, lower by 11 basis points.