jon: welcome to bloomberg markets. alix: let's get a quick check on the markets. we are down on the equity side but all flows of the session. s&p down .7%. what gives? are we looking at a two-year that is resuming the trend of higher yields? or is this just a moment to chill? gold hit a record high earlier

in the trading session. now we are down. is that a canary in the coal mine? is this where risk assets starts to reverse it? jon: we will continue to watch the material stocks that have lost ground today as bullion has rode back. we have a deal that is getting a lot of attention on wall street, hawaiian holdings surging after the alaska air offer. some on wall street are worried about whether this can get over regulatory hurdles. alaska air down 14.5%. given the offer, hawaiian up 180%. on the technology front, a couple of stock stories. uber is now on track to join the s&p 500 and is continuing its 2023 surge. some analysts revising price targets. nvidia has had a huge run this year.

seeing softness in stock right now. some data suggesting that some insiders, whether they have sold or are preparing to sell, are going to take profits based on their own holdings. that insider trend seems to be influencing nvidia shares to the downside. alix: the nasdaq 100 is off. wall street bull run taking a breather. the move lower in markets was expected by some, including tony dwyer. >> the month we have had has met the parameters of what happens in the fourth order of a pre-election year and after three negative consecutive months. we have had the great rally, now it is just shalla -- chillax. jon: let's get more perspective. catherine joins us. given what we are now seeing, how do you anticipate things

playing out in december? >> it could be volatile, but i would expect some positive momentum going into year and. my biggest concern is next year. my biggest concern is markets are discounting with poster certainty the potential for the ultimate goldilocks scenario. what i have been advising our clients is to take the opposite that. look at options with the volatility index historically low and protect your positions going into 2024. there is a good chance that we do not nail that goldilocks scenario where unemployment does not higher, the economy stays robust and inflation drops to 2%. jon: as we monitor the data

points after market participants have placed their short-term bets, the mood of the bond market, what happens with yields there is another determining factor. what happened to yields recently was one of the fields for the stock market rally. kathryn: yes. what we are seeing now is there is a lot of one-way bets on the bed cutting rates -- fed cutting rates 125 basis points next year, which i think is unrealistic in a soft landing scenario. probably if the fed cuts to 250, that is because we are in a recession. be careful what you wish for. as bond yields declined, if they are declining because of what we expect which is a rollover in the u.s. consumer in a consumption-based economy, that will not be positive or equities. so he dropped lower in yields because of a slowdown in the economy will not be bullish for

earnings. alix: that is the confusing part. chillax felt good. cutting to normalize is different from easing. cutting versus easing is i feel like the tension we are getting to. what happens in that moment? be bullish until you have to cut to these? or the flip? kathryn: i think what makes sense is to counter it counterintuitively. right now, markets are going up so fantastically let's play the opposite. buy-in calls is cheap. let's not pursue the high flyers that will probably drop next year if the fed does not cut as much as the market is expecting. if it does, it is because of something negative. i recommend to our clients to take the opportunity to position ourselves defensively. treasuries could go lower in terms of yield next year because

we are in recession. a 10 year treasury that broke 5% point for me was a clear and buy signal. i think people's where you can get a 5.5% yield makes sense. cash equivalent bank -- paper makes sense. it is not enriching for the banks to say this, but when you compare the s&p 500 versus the two-year treasury dull, that out-earn's. he treasury bill is better in terms of yields than the s&p 500. you compare that to the investment-grade market. to me, that says it is time to overweight fixed income. alix: what about gold? it hit the record high that maybe that is a canary in the coal mine. what do you do in gold right now? kathryn: i think if gold continues this move lower, it is an opportunity to accumulate. i have liked gold for some time. current levels i do not think are opportune to enter, but if

we continue to see it get lowered, i think gold makes sense. overweighted fixed income makes sense, protect -- protecting your positions, not wholesale selling of equities but a minimum, protect those positions. both of which are a higher probability than discounted in the market. jon: if corporate profits can hold up into next year, does that change the possible narrative of people thinking stocks have gone too far too fast, policy not there yet. what if companies have been preparing for more questions about that headed into next year he? -- ear? -- next year? is it possible that they could be ready to counter views that they could be under pressure

because we are getting momentum on the earnings side? kathryn: good point. if one thinks we are not entering a slowdown but perhaps a reaccelerate of men recession is not on the horizon and -- we are going into a bigger boom in economic activity, than i buy that argument. but i suspect that corporate margins will come under pressure and under the triple whammy of what we are seeing, which is high labor costs, high will rates. and energy costs. deals have come down but they will likely rise higher. that is a triple whammy. probably what what happens that to maintain margins, harborage of these are going to stop john cornyn. they will start shedding -- reverse the job porting. they will start shedding jobs. so the u.s. consumer is facing

high will rates, exhaustion of those checks from the pandemic, liquidity is drying up, and they are experiencing ongoing inflation with high will rates. it is going to be a complicated scenario. on wins for the economy knocks to hear are underpriced into market sentiment right now. alix: what about the friday's jobs number? good news, bad news? kathryn: i think if the jobs never disappoints, that will be good news. the work it is discounting a fed that can land this thing perfectly without pickups. the market is rooting for the economy to slow down. alix: thank you so much. one other thing we are watching is the crypto sector. bitcoin has blown past the $41,000 mark, bringing the rally to more than 150% this year.

stocks surging as well as investors are increasingly convinced the drill reserve is done with rate hikes. or is this just more money sloshing in the system that we can put to work in things like call zone, gamestop, and crypto? jon: great question. you have got a few factors that have been helping the crypto story. if people are going to pile into technology stocks, bitcoin makes sense. the bears with a same thing with the equity rally. if we all of these and see a change in opinion on rates, but the bulls would say there has been momentum building on the etf front. that is another consideration going forward. alix: if we get conversion to the etf, it is a whole different all game. coming up, shares of spotify. the streamer is planning its third mass layoff so far this year. this is bloomberg. ♪

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time for our stock of the hour. spotify shares adding to their gain on the year, which now's hands at around 150%. investors keeping a close eye on the cost-cutting campaign at the company. today, spotify eliminating 1500 positions. we want to bring in ed ludlow, who has been tracking the story. we just got through a conversation about an uncertain

economic outlook. if you are spotify and trying to stay lean four uncertain times, this would play into that? ed: yeah. it is also about the bottom line. for all streaming platforms, there has been a question about profitability. everybody is stating the positive impact this will have on their operating margin going to worry. it is the third time they've have trimmed the workforce this year. 1500 people. what daniel said in his statement is they considered smaller trims over a period of time but decided the best way to go is substantial cuts, making sure that those remaining are directly contributing to something that is profitable, that is giving output. alix: contributing to something that is profitable seems obvious. i am wondering is it their existing, main business that was

the problem or other stuff they are trying to do? ed: they through millions of dollars at growing a podcast business that they pulled back from to try and bring more users in. all told, it will be a good year for spotify. they will add 100 million users but within that, you have premium subscribers and the free users who use ad supported tears. -- tiers. they had previously forecast 37 million euros of operating income. profit is rare for them. they are trying to figure out how to be leaner and meaner in an environment where it is hard to make money, the battle for users. jon: let's switch to space travel. we have seen quite a hit for virgin galactic today. after comments richard branson

made about not putting more money into virgin galactic? ed: virgin galactic is publicly traded. his comments to the ft work my empire businesses -- were my empire businesses do not have the pockets. lactic does not have enough money to go on its own. one sell-side as said our model had a scenario where branson would put money in in any way but, like many of their peers, they have sputtered along behind their original timeline. the big story for that will be scaling. we know that economics improved with more launches. with more launches, they need more spacecraft. that is expect since. -- expensive. alix: virgin atlantic, is it just about spacex and blue origin? ed: virgin galactic would say no. they would say they see an

opportunity for limited zero gravity sign big experimentation not just tourism, but the technology is different. it is a few minutes of weightlessness relative to what spacex can achieve at lower orbit. spacex has the differentiator and is able to carry payload for a much broader set of customers. how many tourists are willing to pay the $250,000 to 500,000 dollars a ticket to go on virgin galactic? that is always the existential question. jon: appreciate it. ed ludlow joining us from san francisco. facebook's parent met out, the stock is down about 2%. mark zuckerberg selling shares for the first time in two years. he unloaded 185 million dollars worth of stock in november. we know that that i has had a huge run.

the stock has barely moved since zuckerberg laughed sold shares. last year, there was no activity for the entities that represent his fortune, which oftentimes he is selling as part of his charitable contributions. alix: it is hard to draw a real conclusion from it but usually you do not have insiders selling when the stock is at a lower. maybe that is an inference, but when you are giving to charity that is different. maybe it signals confidence in where the share price is trading at. he is laughing. jon: it is amazing. we keep talking about these stories just like with spotify. job cuts, surging stock. this has been the year of efficiency at meta, which has meant cost controls and a big reception from the market. shares of 100%. alix: deficiency for attack.

coming up, saudi arabia's minister talks opec-plus as the group vows to cut $2 million per day. the interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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time for today's for what it's worth. $2 million in -- 2 million, opec cutting euros of oil that amount. those cuts could ultimately remain in place past march if need be. he spoke exclusively with bloomberg really today. >> i believe the best decision we made was to deliver them.

i believe that the delivery of the 2.2 will happen. i honestly believe that 2.2 million will overcome and that will happen in the first quarter. also believe that as long as we were working with a checklist, and that last item, that checklist, apart from the volume and commitment, is to give the american a signal that these 2.2 million will not be the first simply because we want the market to know that there will be a phased in approach. since we are not know what will be the situation in january, february, march, we wanted to be careful about what language we use pricing it will be phased out or gradually and based on

market conditions. >> i will ask you again what could the market not understand about the deal? you took an extra week to get there, brought everyone on board. >> nothing market, the commentators that one of the market not to believe the deal did their own work. i believe that a lot of credibility would be going down the drain when people see the reality of the deal. i am also worried -- the jury is still out, but if you talk to many of these companies, they see demand, they see that we are getting better prices than what we were getting today. jon: comments from the saudi energy minister.

markets still trying to figure out the math surrounding that. alix: also uncertainty, voluntary versus involuntary. how do we know it will materialize? yet the demand is still there for oil, for natural gas. important in the middle of cop28 . i spoke to mike sable about lng demand. >> demand is strong. we think that the market, which is 400 million tons of production today, will double. 100 million tons by 2040. there is a lot of incremental demand coming. gas is the only major that again -- mitigatant right now. everyday when we wake up, everybody is using more: the night before. only cheap lng can mitigate that. alix: if i put these two together, it says that fossil

fuels in some form are here to stay for the medium form. just how and where they are developed is the question. depends everyone accepts that promise. jon: in this country and canada, they are trying to get more of that product to the world market. let's talk more about the markets on this monday where we are seeing, after that recent run-up in stocks, a bit of a cautious tone so far. alix: definitely. chillax from tony dwyer. off the lows of the session. you cannot blame him, but you look at the russell, small-cap stocks, they are positive on the day. if everything was going down, we would not necessarily see that. small caps the s&p on friday as well. jon: we have seen a lot of those gains that started at the beginning of november home. we will -- hold. we will continue to track the

bottom equity landscape -- broader equity landscape. this is bloomberg. ♪ looking to save big on holiday shopping?

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romaine: a pullback in stocks, a retreat and treasuries. i'm romaine bostick. scarlett: i'm scarlet fu. let's take a look at how stocks are trading right now with about two hours to go in the session. the s&p 500 has come off its lows after earlier declining as much as 1%, preserving the streak of moves of less than 1%. last time the s&p closed by at least 1%. up