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>> good morning, i'm lizzy burden and these are the stories that set your agenda. global stocks and futures rally ahead of the cpi report. the fed get set for its final policy decision. cop 28 world leaders look to strike a global agreement on the use of fossil fuels but will the compromise be too far? a california jury rules that the google play store has a monopoly in the android mobile market. good morning it 6:00 a.m. in london. let's get a check of the markets. waiting for a cpi print ater in the fed decision so futures are green but not a lot of movement.

we had the s&p 500 hitting a new high. the question is whether the disinflation trend continues and data today could be more important for markets them whatever the fed says tomorrow. looking at u.s. two year yields down a basis point. the dollar spot index is weaker by 2/10 of a percent and brent trading over $76 a barrel. for the u.s. can reach a soft landing will be crucial. finally just looking at bitcoin it is up. had its steepest drop because of the volatility.

you've got cryptocurrency. let's get over to averill hong in singapore. how are equities holding up ahead of the cpi print question --? >> it's interesting how we've seen other classes in wait and see mode. the gauge of asian equities is higher helped along by asian chipmakers. we are seeing a deadbeat downer from japanese lenders capping gains on the msci asia pacific. investors are paring bets prompted by reports that policymakers see little need to rush in the ppi number is feeding into the narrative that

inflationary pressures are coming off in japan. let's look at the yen as we saw a decline after the report. it is gaining ground but it strength has faded. let's look at chinese assets. after the late session search yesterday and a suggestion that they were buying it, it's been flat. we've been keeping a close watch on china's economic meeting and that is on the expectation that it could inform stimulus in china. that meeting has convened. lizzy: will be talking about that next but we could never describe you as a deadbeat downer. let's dig into the chinese story. xi jinping and other leaders

have begun the work conference and that will set the nation's policy agenda for 2020 or including gdp on the agenda. let's speak to china economy editor jill. it is a high-profile meeting closely watched by markets but it seems to be happening without fanfare. expectations are high, what do we know? jill: the idea behind the meeting is the top commonest party leaders led by president xi jinping set the tone for policies we might expect including tweaks to language suggesting that fiscal policy will take a central role. monetary support takes a supporting role. the point of the conference is

to follow-up on the tone from the meeting and hash out specifics including talking about growth. it may not be until march when we get all of that announced but still an important meeting among major chinese entities. that being said and what to keep in mind the report says the meeting has kicked off. maybe concluding. xi jinping is flying to vietnam for a state meeting so there is confusion about how the government is prioritizing the importance of the meeting if it is happening. we will have to wait and see what we get out of the readout.

hoping we get clear ideas of how the government will be addressing things like the property crisis. lizzy: very odd and the new york fed says near term inflation expectations drop to the lowest since april of 2021. a lot of that relates to falling gas prices. how does that set us up for the cpi print later today? jill: we are going to see a print that is suppressed on the headline by falling energy prices so when you look at the key gauge maybe that is flatlining month over month. if you strip out volatile energy costs expectations are poor. still keeping on an annual basis within 3% range. above the fed's target.

given how much the fed has emphasized this idea of data dependency we've had indicators suggesting cooling-off in the economy. inflation expectations lightening up. signs of cooling within the labor market. what we are looking out for is anything the fed will say after the next meeting. we are priced in for a pause but any indications from jay powell on when the fed might cut rates is what everyone will look out for toward the end of the week. lizzy: we will come through everywhere to his speech. thanks to jill for that. the clock is ticking down for cop 28 negotiators examining a deal to cut fossil fuel use and production to get close to net

zero by 2050. former vice president on climate out has slammed the text saying it reads as if opec dictated it word for word. let's get analysis from senior executive editor for energy and commodities who is at the conference in dubai on the last day. will, good morning. the statement highlights the divide here. will any deal and up so much of a compromise it is meaningless? will: i don't think it is meaningless. there are reasons to criticize the process and anything that requires more than 160 countries to agree is a compromise. what agreements do is signal travel and as you mentioned it

would be the first time an agreement has included language on fossil fuels. coal was and thereafter the glascow deal. countries including u.s. and eu are worried the language presented in the draft yesterday gives people opt outs, options and loopholes and is not as strong as it needs to be if we stand a chance of capping climate change. lizzy: you had a terrific interview with the saudi energy minister. what are the chances of agreeing to this deal? will: when we spoke to prince abdul last week, the language was about phasing out or down of

fossil fuels. yesterday the language was not in there so that is a victory for saudi arabia. as we seek this compromise the question is now in the next draft and it was supposed to in an hour, it will go well into the evening when we see the next draft will that have stronger language around the idea of curbing fossil fuel consumption production, that means europe and other hawkish delegations can sign up? lizzy: the fun continues but if the deal where to be agreed what change could we expect see in an overworld timeframe? will: it's about a signal to oil companies and banks and carmakers that travel and the

energy transition is clear and everyone is signed up to that direction. does it have immediate impact? no. but these are trying to build a stronger commitment year after year making clear to investors, consumers, government where the world is headed. and we are off track from where we need to be but it's the signaling from conferences which is important to the economy. lizzy: bloomberg's editor for energy and commodities will kennedy, thank you for staying across those negotiations. it's a busy day. let's get across the docket. at the top of the hour the latest u.k. jobs data, unemployment and earnings data. bank of england has treated the data with caution but strong numbers would buttress the

governor of the bank of england when he is expected to push back against expectations of rate cuts, so the question is whether they will convince markets that the cuts are further away. at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time we get u.s. cpi print as we were discussing with jill. it will set the scene for the fed meeting and the headline rate will be flat same as last month. the focus is on the core reading expected to take up. at 6 p.m. london time after a disaster the u.s. treasury will sell 21 billion dollars of 30 year bonds. markets will watch whether it goes better but the 10 year option yesterday was met with solid demand so there is hope. get a roundup of the stories you need to know in today's addition of daybreak read the ruling the app store battle, u.k. prime

minister feasting -- face saying push back on his rwanda policy and hasbro cutting jobs as toy cells slump. get your kids off the ipads and buy them some proper toys. though stories are on the daybreak newsletter which terminal subscribers can find by going to dab why go. it's a busy day, plenty more to come. next up, conversations about the middle east. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to daybreak europe. let's get to the latest on the middle east. president biden cautions that u.s. public union against israel could shift as he balances or with limiting civilian casualties in gaza. the remarks,'s the white house pushes for in israel aid package and elsewhere bloomberg understands saudi telecom is among suitors in an acquisition as the middle eastern courier is looking to expand in europe.

phone companies have been evaluating it which could be valued at 7 billion euros. occidental petroleum agreed to acquire crown rock in a deal valued at 10.8 million dollars. the transaction will close in the first quarter of 2024 subject to approvals as oil executives base pressure to keep dividends flowing as the north american shale sector matures and growth slows. dion as president says oil is moving ahead with production despite a border row with venezuela. nicolas maduro told exxon mobil to leave the region within three months raising the possibility of armed confrontation. they told oil companies -- told

us will companies will not be intimidated by venezuela's threats >> as it relates to the members of the consortium they are moving ahead aggressively with production and will exploration in this region will continue. our investments will continue. no slowing down, no holding back in the investments that we have as we have for other administrative regions and counties. lizzy: that was the president speaking to bloomberg there. while we're on oil let's get a check of oil markets because it's a busy week for oil. it's been falling for seven weeks.

this is the longest run since 2018, down by more than a fit since september so what is going on? oversupplied concerns continue because there is skepticism that opec-plus members will not adhere to voluntary cuts but you've also got worries about u.s. recession in china consumption slowing so opec-plus will need to extend curbs through next year to keep prices in a 70 or $80 a barrel range. that is the picture as we look ahead to opec's report tomorrow and i-8 ease report on thursday. tomorrow's fed decision will play into the narrative about the u.s. soft landing so you're looking at brent trading over $76 a barrel. coming up, goldman sachs reshuffles private credit team seeking to double the size of

the business. more on that next, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> investor appetite is there. they want to see strategic rationale and understand the timeframe to close because if it takes two years they have to factor that in and they want to see what the value enhancement is. investor reaction will continue to be something someone focuses on but strategic transactions have done fine and the issue has been long-term regulatory impact and how long will it take and what will be the legal issues. >> the other big elephant in the

room is occidental crown rock, you're starting to watch mega deals in the market. two of the top three deals have been mega deals. is that going to drive m&a in 2024? >> the environment should get better. we had a muted year, muted because of uncertainty on the economy, interest rates and regulatory. those hurdles are starting to go away but you still have a 10 year that has not gone down. financing remains expensive is people have to do it. equity markets are at highs so the use of equity becomes attractive. you will see transactions that are large. no doubt those discussions are taking place and boardrooms and executives are feeling more comfortable about an outlook in

pricing they can act on. next year should be reasonable and the other side will be an ipo market is opening continues to be delayed. lizzy: that was cities group chairman speaking to bloomberg. more banking news, goldman is reshuffling senior executives at its private credit union as it seeks to double the size of the business. according to memo the revamp will see greg olafson become head of private credit moving from his current role as copresident. kevin sterling will be the global head for investment grade write it to credit. elsewhere bloomberg learned bank of america has promoted 330 four

employees to managing director, 8% fewer than last year one source as for the fourth year in a row more than half of those elevated are women or people of color. thanks pledge to improve diversity as competition for talent up. we have been speaking to the ce oh of the world biggest hedge fund. robin discussed the role of private equity in growth of the group when speaking with francine. >> we've always said we will grow organically and look for acquisitions to increase content for clients. what is interesting is we completed our acquisition q3 with private credit management u.s. in the market. the multiples look more interesting. we're talking about solid dacian

since the gsc. this is one of those points i'm going to want to laugh about someday but as we look at barriers to entry if we look at the cost of running businesses, the scale that we need, and the multiples we are seeing coming down, this could be an interesting time were consolidation. >> is it regulation or no appetite? >> when cash is free it softens that. the moment where people need to deploy at scale in liquid markets has softened if you look at the trend. it has been passive, private equity. if you think about assets that are no longer in the public domain that's been our theme.

when private equity does not have as much cash and raising it is harder, these opportunities for niche spaces to come about on scale, they need to be able to operate in having an organization that can deliver the amount of scale we put in place, the bit that is less exciting, but the ability to take businesses and grow them, that is what lizzy: robin, ce oh that is what lizzy: robin, ce oh of the investment (announcer) enough with the calorie counting, carb cutting, diet fatigue, and stress. just taking one golo release capsule with three balanced meals a day has been clinically proven to repair metabolism, optimize insulin levels, and balance the hormones that make weight loss easy.

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lizzy: good morning this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. inflation in focus, futures rally ahead of the usc ei report as the fed gets set its final decision of the year and on the last day of cop 28 world leaders like to strike a global agreement on cutting fossil fuels but will a compromise be too far? epic defeat. googles play store has a monopoly in the android will markets putting revenue at risk. it is 6:30 a.m. in london, let's check in on the markets ahead of the crucial cpi prints. not a lot of conviction in europe or the u.s.. futures point to a higher opening. we've had the s&p 500 hitting a new year to date high but the

question is whether the trend is continuing and data today could be more important for markets than what the fed says tomorrow. if we flip over your looking at the u.s. to year yield down at 4.69%. the dollar spot index is steady and brent is trading at $76 a barrel as we await the cpi and fed decision and reports on oil including the iea and opec. bitcoin has recovered, it had its steepest drop in four months and volatility is back with traders locking in profits before the fed decision. cryptocurrency is trading over $41,000. let's get to market analysis. morgan stanley cio mike wilson

says u.s. company earnings will weaken in the fourth quarter before rebounding next year we spoke with bloomberg's lease on stock predictions for 2024. >> it's about stockpicking which is what this year has been about. average stocks have not done well. our earnings forecasts for the average stocks turned out to be right in we've had 10 or 20 or 30 stocks which have done well and done an incredible job of cost-cutting which has driven the s&p earnings up and away we did not project which has been the difference. the dynamic will persist next year for the first two quarters meaning lower quality businesses will struggle. second half of next year we see inflation bottom and that's when

earnings will come back. that's been the trick. inflation has been coming down which is good for bond yields and disinflationary assets but not inflationary assets which are small-cap stocks and average stocks. average stocks do better when inflation accelerates and most people got it wrong because many people recommended small-cap stocks and cyclical stocks which don't work when inflation is coming down. >> that raises a question about the 45 hundred target on the s&p next year. is that assuming there might be a recovery of other stocks but that there will be stasis for big tech that account for the lions share of indexes? >> this year has been about

expansion and rates have gone up for most of the year until recently so that is an unusual combination. our call was that rates had normalized and would continue to normalize so multiples should normalize. the difference between our price target and what has transpired has been multiple. closed at 17 times earnings with 10 north of 4%. multiples are 19 and halftime so multiples will adjust this year. earnings will be fine but multiples are churning in place. there will be some that deliver better earnings growth but it will not be as broad because cost-cutting will not be easy

given the tougher comparisons in 2024. lizzy: that was morgan stanley cio mike wilson with bloomberg's lisa brom of edge. let's dig deeper into the dado were waiting for. investors watching the cpi print for the fed meets tomorrow for the final time this year. economists say a flat print will give the fed room to consider rate cuts joined by mark cranfield from the markets live team in singapore. what are traders looking for in the u.s. cpi print? >> but nine outcome giving the fed every reason to pause later this week and dovish outlook for interest rates into 2024. annie risks that markets would have a dislocation went out the

window with the one central bank not meeting, bank of japan. bloomberg ran a story that the meeting for december will be a nonevent so everyone can relax. they were the only ones who may have disrupted. nobody's going to change rates so markets can be happy and that's what you're saying. inflation data is a surprise on the upside most likely we will get numbers that are close to estimates. the trend of inflation comes down. bloomberg economics expects core inflation to come down quicker in the first quarter of next year and that's a backdrop for the fed to, with the dovish outlook. traders can be confident that low risk assets are in a good

place until year end. lizzy: there's a parallel situation in the u.k.. we get the latest unemployment and earnings data but bank been skeptical about jobs numbers. i wonder if it is a strong reading how much ammo it could give andrew bailey to push back against the narrative? >> he may try verbally. major central banks would love to hold on because they've been burnt with inflation. not so much about the future, they want to be sure that there be will go back to the 2% targets. bank of england, the fed, ecb would like to drop hawkish words into statements but traders can see where the trade is going.

inflation is going the right way, growth is calling, jobs numbers are starting to decline. average earnings from the u.k. comes in below 8% in the peak is in there so there's nothing for bank of england to worry about. the numbers could come down quickly. we are in the winter season, people are refinancing mortgages , it could be bleak for the economy. that will come through in the numbers next year so bank of england may chide to push back. traders can see a global bond rally and reasons why they need to be dovish next year. ecb and bank of england could be lowering rates before the fed get started next year. lizzy: if only traders shared mike wilson skepticism. thanks to mark cranfield for the

analysis. let's get back to the geopolitical situation because the ukrainian president has urged the u.s. to break deadlock over military aid. during a visit zelenskyy said the funding benefits -- the lack of funding benefits russian president putin. let's bring in bloomberg's bill faries for analysis. zelenskyy is trying to get the war back into the spotlight. is it working? >> it is a hard sell. beside the distraction of the israel hamas war president zelenskyy is finding funding for ukraine is in the middle of a larger political fight about the border. u.s. senate and congress are expected to go home for the holiday break.

you had at least one prominent republican in oklahoma saying he does not expect to vote on ukrainian aid to happen and that would push off any decision into january. on the other of the atlantic you have a european union package for ukraine blocked by hungary. a lot of flags in terms of longer-term funding eight ukraine. lizzy: not to make his point for him but if the u.s. does not back to crane how vulnerable will it be to blame for defeat in the history books? >> you heard zelenskyy saying that his military made less progress than they hoped in spring and summer because they did not get the weapons they needed in time. that argument is being made.

military analysts say ukraine needs the funding but we are heading into the winterland battle lines do not shift much. longer-term it could be a turning point if western nations including the u.s. and europe start to face blowback from providing aid and begin cutting were letting aid expire as could happen with the u.s. as early as this month. lizzy: bill faries, thank you for that. stay with us for more on the ukraine story because we will be speaking to the belarus opposition later in our interview with maria. making news u.k. prime minister is defending keeping scientists in the dark over plans when he was chancellor during the pandemic at the u.k. covid-19 inquiring he said the secrecy

around his out to help out policy was normal treasury practice. the house of commons is set to vote on his rwanda asylum seeker plan. right wing conservatives say deportation plan does not go far enough adding to the risks of a rebellion. he's not the only one that immigration headache. french lawmakers have rejected emmanuel macron's plan to overhaul immigration policy. members of the lower house voted for a motion to dismiss the draft law which would crackdown on undocumented workers. it's a blow to the reform agenda underscoring his inability to paschi legislation. corporate news, bloomberg understands citadels revenue rose to $8 million in the third quarter as market swings bolster training. the figure has exceeded $1 billion for 15 straight quarters

and oracle slump more than 8% post markets after slowing quarterly sales growth in cloud computing fueling concerns that expansion efforts have yet to gain traction. cloud revenue gained 25% to the end of november compared to a 30% jump in the previous quarter. alphabet suffered a major court defeat with a federal jury ruling that google's mobile app store is a monopoly. su keenan has the details. su: it's a win for epic games and if the verdict is upheld it could jeopardize billions of dollars generated by googles app store google play. this was a high-stakes antitrust battle beginning three years ago and the jury deliberated for less than four hours before deciding googles place store wields monopoly power and it

unreasonably limits trade. google shares dropped in extended trading and they plan to appeal. epic the maker of fortnite was the only stakeholder to challenge alphabet in court after it reached a settlement with numerous parties. the ceo posted a victory post on the platform formerly known as twitter and noted court work on remedies will start in january. the judge to oversaw the trial will decide whether google has to open the door for distribution methods outside of its own store in light of the policies that were found unlawful. bloomberg, new york. lizzy: plenty of green across our screens as shares in asia rise along with cheers ahead of the u.s. economic data and major central bank meetings.

we discussed that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ lizzy: welcome back to daybreak europe. i huge week for central bank decisions starting with the fed decision tomorrow then boe and ecb on thursday. the question many are asking is how long central banks can keep up the higher for longer narrative markets are convinced they will cut rates. i'm joined by the deputy chief economist at bmp parabolic. i wonder who comes out with more credibility, markets or central bankers? >> well really it is a very big week with these three meetings

from the fed and ecb and boe. it will be an interesting series of meetings but not that surprising this time because we expect rates to be unchanged compared to previous times where we were asking are they going to climb one more time. this time we think they are over in terms of hiking rates and how long, how much will the different central banks pushback against interest-rate cuts expectations? we think the higher for longer will last a few months. for the ecb we expected to be

neutral and for the boe we expect june next year of course. lizzy: are you in the soft landing camp in the u.s.? >> exactly, we are even if i must admit there are significant risks on the downside. it is true that until now the economy is holding up well. we saw a huge rise in gdp in the third quarter. it has been revised. the labor market is going quite well. strong wage gains. this is surprising given the huge inflationary and monetary tightening shock. but for now thanks to different

tailwinds, the fiscal policy and the previous era of low interest rates that still protect different households and corporate sectors. we are at a crossroads today but we expect a soft landing. lizzy: in the u.k. we get the latest jobs data at the top of the hour. to think it is fair to say that the bank of england has got a tough job? >> well, regarding the boe, indeed we think it has a tricky task, especially because inflation is quite higher than the united states. even if the latest asia -- data

has been encouraging. if we compare the latest inflation data from the eurozone and u.k., we are if i can say so closer to the 2% target with headline inflation at 2.4% in november. for the u.k. we are above to percent. the task of the boe will be much trickier than the one for the fed and ecb even if also for the u.k. we were quite worried by negative economic outlook and the u.k. economy is doing not that bad. lizzy: one last question on bank of japan because there is speculation it will move away from negative interest rates.

this macro reality support that? helene: it is a tricky question because japan has lower inflation rates and the u.s., eurozone and u.k.. the inflation is not as much home-based as boj would like, so they are waiting for wages to be stronger to fuel have no inflation but it seems the direction is clear in the not-too-distant future. lizzy: helene, thank you for joining us. deputy chief economist at bnp paribas. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. it is 6:55 in london and in five minutes we expect the latest u.k. jobs numbers. unemployment, the bank of england has treated these numbers with caution because of the low response rate to surveys but the numbers would buttress andrew bailey when he tries to push back against the rate cutting narrative. we were discussing this with helene from bmp talking about the way equity markets have become convinced central banks will ride to the rescue of economies.

the bank of england's numbers on thursday help to convince them otherwise. let's see on that. analysis on the numbers in a few minutes time on markets today, joined by tom, mark and anna. they will have a big interview with president of france top court for auditing public funds. finances very much in the spotlight, that is set to be an interesting conversation. we will also be speaking to the exiled belarus opposition leader. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

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