>> good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm lizzy burden in europe and these other stories that set your agenda. asian stocks rally as china's central bank ramps up support, offering 100 $12 billion of loans to commercial lenders. this as economic data comes in mixed. do we believe you? investors weigh signal from the european central bank that rate cuts aren't coming anytime soon. we will discuss the red-hot rally. the european union fails to agree on 50 billion euros for ukraine, as hungary still blocks a deal in brussels. but they agreed to membership talks with kyiv. we bring you the latest as discussions continue. happy friday. 6:00 a.m. in london. the pivot party for markets

conduce. you are looking at equity futures pointing to a higher opening after stocks reached an all-time high yesterday. the rally came for everything. all of the assets from stocks to treasuries, credit the commodities on the excitement of fed cuts in 2024. you are looking at euro stocks 50 futures. ftse 100's up 3/10 of a percent. snp up a tent the percent as our nasdaq futures. the cross asset picture has seen treasuries declining across the curve. you are looking at the two-year treasury curve up for basis points. goldman sees it dropping to 3.7% by the end of 2024. bloomberg dollars spot index is stronger, up nearly a 10th of a percent. cable is pretty steady, weaker a 10th of a percent trading at one dollar 27 the pound.

brent has been boosted by the weaker dollar. it is currently trading at $76 a barrel, pushing towards $77. we have sat -- we have had this shot in the arm from jay powell despite the concerns of oversupply and weakening supply. that's get to asia for how markets are faring. avril hong is waiting in singapore. avril: it is a shot in the arm from jay powell. working its way through the asian equities and effects space. the bond rally is taking a breather, but it's not what we got from the fed, it's also the pboc that's in focus after the massive liquidity injection, the most on record via the medium term policy loans as it left rates unchanged. this comes on a day where we have economic activity data on the monthly trend. those showing the recovery in

china is patchy. chinese stocks are higher today. the hang seng climbed as much as 3.4%. we have chinese property stocks listed in hong kong on the green on the back of megacities such as shanghai xinjiang. -- shanghai. we have gone through the decisions in the terms of the be -- and the terms of the boj. that's look at the cross asset pictures. the expectations are for next week from the bank of japan. the mixed live meeting will be in april, we will get a sense of how they are feeding into inflation. there are corners of the market expecting a move to be imminent. the jpy is hovering at the 142 level against the greenback. we see japanese equities recovering ground. not the negative impact, despite

the strength in the yen. that looks to be a limited impact for today. lizzy: all eyes on the boj next week. avril hong in singapore. i want to stay with asia. we do have new data out of china. industrial production beating expectations, but retail sales fall short. it puts pressure on beijing to boost growth. we have had the pboc offer a record cash injection via its lending facility as it kept interest rates unchanged. we have rebecca choong wilkins in hong kong. you are bloomberg's asia government and economic reporter. give us your key takeaways from this data dump. rebecca: a mixed picture. industrial numbers were better than expected, but the figure that caught my eye was the

retail numbers, expanded just over 10%. the hope was we would be around 12.5%. we are still seeing weakness in domestic demand in china. the worries beijing had were underscored in the briefings we had with the spokesperson from china's national bureau of statistics. she acknowledged we have not seen the recovery china would like to see. we are not seeing domestic consumption at the level they would hope. the foundation of the chinese economy is facing challenges. it's a dominant theme for them going into 2024. it's a contradictory message. we know from the conference this week, the number one priority will be industrial policy, with the issue being moved -- of demand being moved. it was the first concern for those in beijing.

we are seeing a shift in tone and focus for china. i will mention the property numbers. they were interesting. showing weakness in november. we have seen this positive news because of the restrictions on the big tier cities. it is the lower tier cities china needs to turn around. we are seeing weakness. the numbers we saw, less than 1% drop in november for home sales and second home sales don't represent the full picture. when you speak to homebuyers in the smaller cities, they talk about a drop in prices that's near 20% or 30% of the highs we saw in 2021. that gives a sense of the scale of challenge of policymakers thinking of how to stabilize property markets in smaller cities in china. lizzy: our asia government and economy correspondent digging

behind the data. thank you. let's get back to central bank divergence. we have had the ecb and the bank of england reluctant to follow jay powell's pivot towards great pets. the euros area central bankers said slowing inflation cannot be taken for granted. >> we did not, we did not discuss rate cuts at all. >> clearly it was a topic of discussion. also a discussion in our meeting. >> no discussion, no debate on this issue. >> inflation is still too high. the path forward is uncertain. >> should we lower our guard? we ask ourselves that question. no, we should absolutely not lower our guard. >> no one is declaring victory, that would be premature. >> our past interest rate decreases continue to be transmitted forcefully. >> there's little basis for

thinking that the economy is here now. >> the economy is expected to recover because of rising real income as people benefit from falling inflation, growing wages, and improving foreign demand. >> given the uncertainties, the committee is proceeding carefully. lizzy: bloomberg mliv's -- joins us. did powell read the room or cave to pressure? did lagarde strike a brave note or is she being tone deaf? >> i do feel like powell is feeling the pressure. on december 1 he said it would be premature to see when the policy rate might ease. two weeks later, he said the fed makers discussed a timeline for rates.

what happened in those two weeks is a mystery. if you look at the incoming data, i believe the market strengthened in the jobless rate was lower. what transpired for the about turn? there is dovishness for the markets, for treasuries. the ecb is saying -- as the tape showed. she also made an analogy. we are not going from a solid to a greater stage without going through an intermediate stage. meaning rates will be on hold for longer. it means treasuries are going to outperform german bonds into the first quarter. before all this happened, markets were thinking, probably it would be the ecb to cut rates. it does not appear to be the case.

the ecb said, lagarde said they will wait for the ecb's macroeconomic projections to see which direction to take policy. it does not look like we will get a position in march. the fed seems to be in a hurry to cut rates. it can't take march off the table. 15 to 20 basis points in march. there is no point in fighting that pricing. if anything, the pricing has room to grow to 25 basis points by march. lizzy: what a turnaround. people told me it was a no-brainer it would be the ecb to cut first. let's not forget the bank of england. we heard from governor andrew bailey. >> the goal is to achieve the 2% inflation target, sustainably. inflation has come down from 11%

to just over 4.5%. but it will come down further. we have to achieve it sustainably. i am encouraged by where we are, but we have more to do to get to that target. that's what we will do. lizzy: in reality, whatever andrew bailey says, do you think a fed pivot will give the bank of england the confidence to cut sooner than thought? >> it definitely gives the doves ammunition that they have been fighting for. there are policymakers within the community. for them, the fed ammunition provides them some quota. how much room does bailey and his policy committee have? you have headline inflation, services inflation running at 4%. the economy is losing momentum.

he is caught between a rock and a hard place. on one hand, they cannot raise rates anymore. on the other hand, they can't run to the help of the economy, even if the economy weakens, it's persistently sticky. the boe is caught in the worse mind. -- bind. they may be the last to cut rates in this cycle from available indications. lizzy: with an election looming next year, it looks like we will have more tax cuts, which might fuel inflation further. lovely to have you with me. i want to get to the geopolitics. european unions fail to reach an agreement on a financial aid package -- financial aid package for ukraine.

the eu unexpectedly agreed to open membership talks. >> we will revert to this matter early next year. we will try to get unanimity to make it possible for us to implement this. lizzy: let's get analysis from bloomberg's correspondent. how can eu leaders get them on board? zoltan: that is a good question. what happened is very unexpected, yesterday, obviously because he said he was going into the summit saying he would block the start of accession talks for the ukraine for an e.u. membership. he said he was ready to do a deal financially, if need be. what emerged was a deal on a

ukraine membership. a new deal, for now, on financial aid. the political chief advisor told us last week that one way, potentially, of having a deal is to free up all of the blocked funds that the eu is withholding on concerns. earlier this week they blocked a third of the funds. he is keeping about 20 billion euros still withheld. lizzy: it feels significant that negotiations have stopped. how long could eu's membership fee, would you think about history? zoltan: when hungry started, it started in the mid-90's -- 1990's. it took many years, potentially a decade for ukraine to join.

there is symbolism in what the eu did and it's ready to open talks on the membership. what is vital for ukraine is that it continues to get eu aid so that it can continue to finance its counteroffensive against russian invasion. that's going to be key. he said, after the meeting last night, that he vetoed eu aid saying he is against opening the european union budget to funnel more money to ukraine. lizzy: thank you for that update. coming up, we will go to africa next. ethiopia's government has failed to reach a deal with on holders after missing a coupon payment. the country is now on the brink

of default. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. just gone 6 -- 6:18. bloomberg has learned ethiopia's government is aiming to conclude a deal with bond holders next year. this after it missed a $33 million interest payment on a eurobond this week. joining he now is bloomberg's correspondent. thank you for -- walk us through how the deal with international bond holders played out? >> this went a little bit better. we understand they are close to concluding a deal early next

year with their bond holders in terms of restructuring their eurobond. a couple of obstacles are on the way. they have to get an imf deal. it lays the parameters of restructuring of debt. some who are on the call raised the question of the technical nature. this by the fact that the government is bringing bond holders on board without the default. they still maintained the default was not only unnecessary, but unfortunate too. lizzy: what happens if they fail to make the payment? >> a couple of things will happen. they will be considered a default state, like sri lanka and ghana. we are seeing market perception about ethiopia change. they will assign default status if they do not honor the obligation by the end of the

grace period. this is because of things like microeconomic in balance, liquidity challenge, and political instability, rule of law and corruption. this is not the first time that they have downgraded ethiopia. they downgraded them from ac to acc citing a probability of a default. here we are today with all factors taken into consideration, a default is imminent. lizzy: thank you for that story. i just want to check in on oil. what a week it has had. it has benefited from the pivot party narrative from jay powell. a shot in the arm for brent, trading shy of $77 a barrel. it has been mired in concerns over supply and weakening demand. yesterday we had the international agency report

adding to the bearish outlook. it cut its estimates of global demand growth by nearly 40,000 barrels a day. the prospect of cuts weakened the dollar, that boosted the appeal of commodities priced in dollars. you have brent poised to eke out its first weekly gains since october. 76.80 is where we serve. plenty more. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. it's been a busy week for central banks. it's not over. we have plenty of economic data. first with the european pmi.

first, france 8:15 am the euro area at 9:00 followed by the u.k. at 9:30 a.m. these numbers will be important for banks, the question of when to cut rates given the recession. it will help to have a forward indicator when the backward looking measures like the labor forces in the u.k. have been less reliable than usual. 2:45 p.m. london time we get s&p's global pmi's from the u.s. at 5:30 p.m. we will hear from atlanta's fed president speaking at harvard business school. he becomes a voting member of the fomc in 2024. he will be key to the timing of the rate cuts we are expecting, next year. it will be interesting to hear what he has to say post powell's speech. given he has said he is

confident on the path of inflation. all of that to come later today. you can get a round up of the stories you need to know by heading to the daybreak newsletter. today they lead on the pboc's 800 billion yuan policy stimulus . as rebecca choong wilkins told us, that's the biggest since 2016. they have citi set to close its business as they continue to squeeze better returns out of the firm. as we just discussed, they have the eu failing to agree on aid for ukraine, though they have agreed to open membership talks with kyiv. you can find all of that at da why go on your terminal. let's get a round up on your stories. bloomberg has learned that vivendi is considering options for its $1.3 billion -- 1.3 billion euro stake. it has sunk since they invested almost 10 years ago.

the potential sale comes as the communications giant explores a broader overhaul. come party group -- this group agreed to buy the company for $1.2 billion. they add this to their portfolio. it's the largest in the drink makers history. it comes as they face weakening sales from u.s. consumers after a surge in demand during the pandemic. we will speak with the group ceo a are this morning. don't miss that exclusive conversation at 9:30 am, london time. gm is cutting more than 1300 hourly jobs at a power plant in michigan. it comes less then a month after a labor contract was ratified by its unionized workforce. the impacted facilities are outside detroit and in lansing. it is effective as of the start

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lizzy: morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are us are is the judge or agenda. it records stocks really as china budgeted 4 g of support offering one of the dollars of loans to commercial lenders as economic data from the world's second-largest economy comes into makes. investors weigh in decisions from the european central bank and bank of england that rate cuts are not coming anytime soon. we will discuss the rally. the european union fails to agree on 50 million euros of aid for ukraine as viktor orban blocks a deal in brussels, but does agree to open eu memory -- member talks. happy friday. it is just on 6:30 a.m. in london. the party continues despite

christine lagarde and andrew bailey. they push back against the narrative vibrated that's next year. we had a surprise court hike from a bank, but futures pointing to write higher opening both here and in the u.s. euro stoxx 50 futures higher. ftse 100 futures higher .3 of 1%. s&p futures and nasdaq futures both higher .1 of 1%. all-time highs on stocks, everything rallying from stocks to treasuries, credit to commodities all an excitement of fed cuts in 2024. treasuries declining in the asia session, two year treasury yield up four basis points. goldman sees dropping to 3.7% by the end of the year. bloomberg dollar spot index to

study this morning despite the hawkish tilt from the boe yesterday. brent on course for its first weekly gain since october, so a shot in the arm from jay powell. it has been a busy week for central banks, the latest commentary from europe suggesting central banks there are in no hurry to join a u.s. pivot. andrew bailey and christine lagarde have both reiterated their commitments to keep rates high to tame consumer prices. let's take a listen. >> our job is to achieve the 2% inflation target sustainably. we are making good progress. inflation has come down by 4.5, but we have to achieve it sustainably. i am encouraged by where we are,

but we have got more to do to get to that target, and that is what we will do. >> we did not discuss rate cuts at all. no discussion, no debate on this issue, and i think everyone in the room takes the view between hike and cut, there is a plateau , a whole beach of hold. it is like solid, liquid, gas. you do not go from solid to gas without going through the liquid phase. lizzy: our chief european economics -- economist joins us now. at the start of the week everyone's team to be saying the ecb would go first because of the economic weakness of the euro zone. now it seems like the fed will lead the charge. where are your expectations for cuts on the back of the central bank meetings? >> even before powell spoke our

u.s. team was of the view that the first cut would come in march, but the remarks following the fomc earlier this week have cemented that view and markets quite forcefully, and this has come -- it has been contagious. it has infected pricing for the boe and ecb, and it is probably starting to look reasonable. both lagarde and bailey have pushed back markets have not listened and they are expecting the liquid phase of the table top of the mountain to be quite short, and that is because there is an expectation that once the fed goes that will open the gate for the others to do the same. the question is whether the economy will be weak enough for that to be a reality. for the euro zone, it will be an option. they can cut any time in the

first half of the year because they do not have a huge underlying inflation problem. for the bank of england, the inflation outlook is worse, wage growth is stronger, they will probably go later. the ecb and the bank are likely to cut rates later than the fed, but it would not take much to bring that timetable for. lizzy: what is your verdict? did powell need to close the credibility gap between market expectations and what he was saying the fed would do, or should he have held his nerve like bailey and lagarde? >> they clearly think they have seen enough on the inflation side of things to think they will get to target sustainably, and they have a lower threshold of success. as inflation has come down, it is about central banks to look further ahead and rely more on their forecast, and we heard powell say if we wait to cut until we get to 2% it will be much too late. the bank of england and ecb are

not yet there. they are not relying on their forecast as much, but that recipe could change, so we could find a guard and bailey started to look further ahead, and as soon as they do that opens the door to cutting rates sooner. lizzy: is there anything andrew bailey can say it this point to make markets listen to him more than jay powell? >> i do not think so. it is not a credibility problem. it is not that bailey is saying what he does not believe, he does, but markets are viewing the inflation outlook more favorably than the central banks in the bank of england are currently doing. markets are looking ahead. a central banks in europe are not, so there is going to be that dissidents, and there is no chance governor bailey will be able to push back on market pricing. it will take underlying developments in the economy to

change that view. lizzy: it is good there was no press conference then. there is not much you can say to change market's minds. jamie rush, thanks for joining me. let's get back to geopolitics, european union leaders have failed to reach an agreement on a new financial aid package for ukraine, which remains blocked by hungary after kyiv's significant political victory when the eu agreed to open membership talks. these were pretty surprising developments at the summit last night, all eyes on orban. was any of it expected? >> i do not think so. orban went into the summit saying there was no way she would allow you to open ukraine membership, and at the end of the night that is exactly what happened.

orban did not vote, he actually left the room to allow for a unanimous decision among the 26 remaining leaders in the room, so that was not to be expected. what orban did say is he would be flexible and be ready to do a deal on aid to ukraine, and at the end of the night, that is exactly what hungary did block. lizzy: what is his rationale? >> on ukraine aid, he basically says that he wants the aid to go through not through amending the budget, but rather by other means, so basically it appears to be in some ways that technical objection, but his rationale is the eu is still blocking 2/3 of the aid earmarked for hungary, and she

says if ukraine will get money from that budget then hungary should get all of it as well. lizzy: it feels significant the talks about ukraine's e.u. membership have been given the green light to start, but if you look back at history, this could take a long time, would it not? how long do we need to hold our breath here? >> it will take many years, and viktor orban said while the eu did give a green light, he said there will be plenty of time where he can wield a veto and blood progress on that, but hungary took about a decade to join the eu, and it will take a long time for ukraine as well for sure, so it is more a symbolic move yesterday from the eu on that front. lizzy: we do have an update of the story, viktor orban says

hungary still holds a veto on eventual ukraine membership, and he has been speaking in a radio interview reminding everyone that he could still put a -- in the works of this development. the u.s. senate will delay its holiday break and return to washington d.c. next week to try to strike a deal on the aid for ukraine. the funding has been blocked by republican border demands, which are opposed by democrats. it comes as the ukrainian president left washington empty-handed this week after his meeting with president biden. u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen says she plans to visit china again next year, in this time she wants to focus on difficult areas of concern. speaking at a u.s.-china business event, janet yellen said decoupling from the world's biggest economies would be damaging. >> as i've said before, america's fundamental economic

strength means we have nothing to fear from healthy economic competition with china or any other country. i and other u.s. officials have repeatedly stated that the united states does not seek to decouple from china. this would be damaging to both our economies and would have negative global repercussions. lizzy: u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen. u.k. consumer confidence edge higher rising to its highest level of almost two years. the sentiment measure increase by two points to -22 as households look forward to lower inflation in 2024. respondents to personal finance as well as the wider economic situation. here is what we are looking at 42 today.

a preliminary december pmi's from across europe this morning. we kick off with friends at 8:15, germany at 8:30, and the u.k. at 9:30. watch for higher volumes and volatility, and that 2:45 p.m. u.k. time we get pmi data from the u.s. atlanta fed president at 5:30 is scheduled to speak on the u.s. of business outlook at harvard business school. still a busy day despite all of the central bank decisions this week, but we will discuss them with the head of european rates strategy at bank of america. the conversation coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> should we lower our guard? we ask ourselves that question. no, we should absolutely not lower our guard, and i will give you two good reasons for that. the first one is that our inflation outlook, which is one of the three criteria, is conditioned on the interest rate path that was embedded in market data at the time when our cutoff date was determined. cutoff date was november 23, so that is point number one. point number two, there is one particular measurement which is

hardly budging. it is declining a little bit, but not much, and that is domestic inflation. domestic inflation is largely predicated by wage, so we need more data. we need to understand better what happens there and why is domestic inflation resisting. lizzy: christine lagarde will not drop her guard, domestic inflation still proving sticky. joining me now is sophia, the head of european rates research at bank of america. christine lagarde said they did not even discuss the prospect of rate cuts, so our markets getting carried away? >> it is a big contrast from what we heard from the fed the night before. not only have they not discussed cuts but she is actively pushing

against the rally we have seen since november. there was the fact she has not change the balance of risks around inflation while acknowledging that there are downside risks to growth, so where did we go from here? are we getting carried away? i would say the onus is still on the data. yes, it makes sense for the ecb to push back, because the moves were quite dramatic and in particular post fed. the ecb meeting coming on the heels of that large rally in u.s. rates was probably a key point there, but ultimately it is the data that will guide us, and if we get additional downside surprises in inflation in the next few prince, i would not include the market prices more rate cuts by 2024. lizzy: one of the ecb governing

council member said it was science-fiction to think about a rate cut as early as the first quarter. is that so right? >> is still tight and indeed because the data might be volatile, and the ecb will want still to hang on to the idea that they want to ensure the next wage negotiations do not show second round effect before making the decision, but the weight that i think about market pricing of cuts and the timeline is in the same way we have had a market pricing rate hikes at the start of a hiking cycle. yes, central banks may push back on the timing of the first move, but ultimately the market may think that they are behind the curve, so why not price that ultimately the first few moves

will actually be larger than 25 basis points, in which case you need to assign premium to a march move itself. lizzy: data aside, is there anything christine lagarde or andrew bailey can say that would make the market listen to them more than jay powell? >> at the end of the day, we are still in a situation where there are signs of deflation, and clear signs in your area within particular services inflation fallen faster, so in that context it is very hard for central banks to completely prevent the market for pricing cuts, and the fed is the leader. a lot of investors are looking at the fed to move first and visiting cuts from other central banks, so as long as the fed is open to cuts the market will continue to trade.

lizzy: where do you see the most value in european bonds? >> we just closed our long position in 10 year bonds now that we are close to 2%. the balance of risk and reward into being long has it diminished, but i still see value in the shorter end, two year, when year where the market is supposed to be rising in the trough and the cycle, and i think that trough and the cutting cycle for europe can be priced down further. the market is assuming we go down to 2%. we think the ecb will be cutting to 1% in the cycle. lizzy: i cannot miss the snb. it was mentioned at the meeting as well. what is your outlook? >> their situation is probably

more complicated, because the snb has to watch with the ecb does and the affect impacts there, but certainly see a scope for changes as well to occur in parallel. lizzy: what is the biggest opportunity markets are missing at the moment? >> that is a very good question. at the end of the day, i would say there is a very strong market consensus around the curve and the fact that we will continue seeing steepening and global curves at the start of the cutting cycle. where we think the market may be underestimating the performances and the potential demand for long dated bonds that may emerge in your area at the start of the year, and to us that may slow the steepening dynamic in the

long end of the recurve. lizzy: you heard it here first. that is sophia, wonderful to have you. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

lizzy: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i went to bring you breaking lines from victor or von. -- orban. we have had an interview with him regarding blocked eu funds. he insists hungary was to get these blocked a key -- eu funds and insists hungary still holds the final veto on ukraine's membership to the eu.

the summit has agreed to talking about ukraine's membership of the eu, so he is throwing cold water, reminding us of hungary's power at a radio interview, and i am sure they will stay across this story on markets today coming up next. before we go, i want to wrap up this crazy week that it has been in central-bank action and what it is meant for markets, because this has been the week the fed went from higher for longer to cuts are coming, but not everyone in -- not everyone wanted to get up for. it was the bank of england that was the most hawkish central bank of the week, and is it a surprise given that inflation is still twice the target and the u.k. has a smaller workforce than at the start of the pandemic? traders paring bets on ecb cuts,

so we end a week with a gap between what markets expect and what central bankers say they expect to do. powell has hit the reset button, but it is a gaping gap in europe . we look toward the boj next week . it has been a pleasure joining you this week on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." next to they will take you through hma resorts coming, expectation of a drop in sales because of continued weak consumer demand. they will take you through the latest in eurn fast fashion next. ♪

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