kriti: good morning and welcome to "daybreak: europe" i'm kriti gupta in london. the u.s. weighs military strikes

on houthi rebels in yemen in response to threats in the red sea. global trade bracing for more disruption. in the u.k., november cpi expected to come in above 4%, steady march towards the boe target but stagnant economy still a problem for downing street. china's main commercial lending rates remain unchanged after the central bank pledged to maintain supportive monetary stance. a quick check on the markets as we digest geopolitical tensions and the thin holiday trading volume. drain across the screen around the world, euro stoxx 50 futures higher, s&p futures higher 0.1% to be generous. our performance on in the u.k. come up with 100 futures higher 0.3% but the key to this week is no one is at their desk. so you are seeing the market kind of on autopilot for lack of a better term.

little bit of a santa rally you are seeing at least for the early parts of today's trade. let's go to the cross as a picture because monetary policy still in focus. we are getting a lot of information out of various fed speakers. you have rough isla boston and austan goolsbee this week talking about the potential for rate cuts. take a look at the 10-year yield, 3.90 is where we are, down two basis points, so the bond market continuing to see a bid. pulling back from the key 4% level, there was a lot of questions about technical retracement. look at the currency market. euro-dollar 1.09, down 0.2%, a continued story, we are seeing euro-dollar keep up strength. even though today marginally weaker. one of your biggest movers, and your biggest contributor to the dollar, will be the aussie dollar. it is higher by 0.1%, but you will see that rate come into focus as there are now policy

minutes coming out of sydney. the rba saying they might have thought of having another rate hike, as opposed to holding onto the pause. that in inflationary pressure creating a boost in that currency. brent crude trading at a 79 dollar handle, steady despite some of the global disruption around the red sea. more later in the show, but let's go to our top story out of asia. chinese banks holding their benchmark lending rates after a similar ribeye the pboc bolstered expectations that further monetary easing will take place in 2024. rebecca choong wilkins in hong kong with the details. talk to us about the need for any of these price tools at the moment. >> lpr for one-year held at 3.5%, the five-year lpr also held at 4.2%. very much in line with

expectations going into the decision today. that reflects that there isn't a strong need at this moment to use pricing tools or rate tools to try and ease the situation. that's more broadly speaking because we had this big injection of liquidity last week, that 112 billion u.s. dollars into one-year loans, that has staved off the need at this moment. so focus now shifting to 2024. kriti: what does that look like in 2024? we have been talking about three and a half years of policy divergence between the united states and china, the two biggest economies on two different fiscal and monetary paths. what does 2024 look like? >> i don't think we will see dramatic change in china's approach to be frank. the decision today, for example, at least for the first quarter does raise the expectations that

we will see a rrr cut. that some economists think could come as early as january. bloomberg has pointed out that near-term, monetary policy is going to need to be stronger, and it is going to be more about quantity rather than just a pricing cut. but the need to support the economy is still pronounced. likely we're going to see rate cuts come into play as well. the signals from state economists and media is we will see that 5% gdp target coming in. but the underlying issue is about the weak demand, and weak consumption we have seen so far. what will be a big priority for the first quarter in particular. kriti: at the end of the day, to what extent is the chinese consumer the entire story? as we talk about a fairly resilient american consumer. the european economy is

stagnating. we thank you so much for your reporting this morning. a lot of that will translate into how markets are trading. we get a quick update on asian markets. avril hong standing by in singapore. walk us through the asia trade. avril: we have seen how this year chinese stocks have underperformed versus the broader market. this is on disappointment from growth, stimulus today is no exception, the csi 300 down 0.5%. we are seeing weakness in the offshore yuan. the hang seng moving 1% higher. this is in line with its asia counterparts, as the benchmark is rising, it is about bets about fed rate cuts. one of the stocks we're watching today is alibaba amid a leadership shakeup, as the ceo is replacing the chief of the e-commerce division. it's about trying to rejuvenate

growth at the e-commerce job giant. we want to take a look at these japanese assets, the words of ueda are working their way through stocks and bonds still. the idea that we will not see a quick exit from negative interest rate policy. we will have to wait a while before we see any tweaks. the yield on the benchmark it earlier its lowest since late july. that was when we saw the boj tweak yield curve control. the stocks are running higher, the nikkei paring gains from earlier, still 1.3% higher by the close. it is helped along not just because of the overall cheapness in the japanese currency, we are seeing transport stocks running higher amid concerns about global trade given the attacks in the red sea. it's worth noting, we also saw data from japan, the exports number slid for the first time in three months. kriti: i love that you said the

words of ueda. the echoes you can hear around the world. a lot of people zero in on japan and the repercussions, but again, stagnation in the rest of the world. avril hong in singapore. from asia, i come back to the middle east are the landed states and its allies considering possibly military strikes against houthi rebels, as the maritime task force meant to protect commercial vessels may not be enough to protect the waterway. paul wallace joining out of dubai. talk to us about the likelihood of military strikes. it feels like quite the escalation from the u.s. stance. >> there is no doubt about that. if the u.s. and its allies in europe and the arab world decided to strike at yemen to hit houthi targets, that would definitely be a big escalation. as to how likely those are, the

u.s. from what we're hearing from sources, they are still deliberating. they are still talking to european allies, to arab allies, and to other nations. they realize this would be fraught with risks. there is a big question as to how effective such strikes would be. we don't know how good their intelligence is about houthi positions such as missile launch sites. this is a group that has been more or less under bombardment from a saudi-led coalition for the best part of a decade. and has survived, if anything, it is stronger than ever so there is no guarantee missile strikes would do much to dent them. there is the huge risk of provoking the houthis, you are a linear on-backed militant group. it is more aggressive action and that could include them trying to hit saudi arabia. as they have done in the recent past with missiles and drones.

they have previously targeted saudi arabian oil production facilities. boiling energy markets. that is something the u.s. will be very well aware of. from our reporting, they would still prefer a diplomatic approach to this. potentially through back channel talks with iran who back the houthis. kriti: it's interesting that you talk about context. we have talked about bombing from the saudi's in yemen for about a decade. american involvement in the middle east is exactly what they are trying to avoid. that direct kind of fighting that has been on the sidelines for a long time. even why the united states i would argue has not gotten physically involved when it comes to the israel hamas war. which brings us to what is going on there when we are talking about this new prisoner exchange offer to hamas.

is that the thing that keeps a more sustainable pause in fighting? >> it is a turnaround from israel, at least according to what its president isaac herzog said last night. he has said that israel is open to another pause in fighting. he didn't give any details, but axios reported that israel is offering a week-long pause in fighting in the gaza strip in return for the release of 40 hostages held by hamas. this comes in the context of rising pressure on israel from the u.s. and some of its other allies to de-escalate. a few more to protect palestinian civilians. and do more to get the hostages out. we also know that there is pressure within israel for the government to do more to release hostages.

over the weekend, the idf admitted killing three israeli hostages that it mistook for hamas fighters. that was a big political event in israel that led to some protests on friday, and i think on saturday, in israel. there is mounting pressure on the israeli government. not just from without but from within to really do more to get these hostages out. even if it means a pause in the idf's military operations. kriti: to your point, that builds on the pressure from the united states and western powers. talk to us about the regional view from all this. you have iran and their backing up the houthi rebels creating turmoil in the red sea. but in terms of the bigger players, the uae, qatar, saudi arabia, and their take on the domestic stories within israel. is there a review? -- a view? >> when it comes to saudi arabia

and the uae, they have been vocal in their criticism of israel per they want ceasefire, they want it now. . they believe that this whole war shows the need for israel and the palestinians to come up with a long-term p solution. that's the message they keep giving out. it is unclear whether any direct meetings between the top of the israeli leadership and the saudi and uae one. but that's a message they have been giving out. qatar has been a crucial player in the hostage negotiations, the main challenge the rich israel -- channels through which israel negotiates. arab powers like turkey want this war to stop very soon. they believe israel needs to take firm steps towards a two-state solution in the view of most of them.

with the palestinians. they are worried about the houthi attacks. they do not want anything like what we're seeing in the southern red sea and the strait being closed to western shipping lines. so, this year that ends, the better however as i mentioned, they do not want to escalate to the point where we see houthi attacks on the saudis, or potentially the uae. kriti: you mentioned the red sea where a lot of market focus is specifically. 67% of global trade halted, represented by the five largest container lines. they differ that context this morning. that will be closely watched when we talk about what the markets are reacting to, but there is plenty of economic data that will be part of that reaction. i want to bring today's day ahead. 7:00 a.m. u.k. time, november

cpi numbers from the u.k. what does the inflationary picture look like? does it make a difference to andrew bailey's policy right? and watching closely at the top of the hour for that reaction in what is a strong cable, 1.27 there. at 2:00 p.m. philip lane from the ecb delivering the euro area outlook, what progress are we seeing on the continent relative to the rest of the world? is europe the first economy to drop? at 3 p.m., u.s. existing home sales and consumer confidence. both are market moving, but remember, there is for holiday volume, so some reactions might be bigger. we have the round up of stories you need to know. if you are a terminal subscriber, type in dayb on your bloomberg terminal. you are going to see our top

stories, including some new developments on the u.s. clinical landscape. something we will dive in, millions headed to the polls in the democratic republic of congo. we will preview today's elections, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: welcome back to "daybreak: europe," i'm kriti gupta in london. the people of the democratic republic of congo voted today. the incumbent president is expected to win a second term, campaigning on energy and climate. i'm joined by ondiro oganga from kigali. why should the world be watching

these elections in the drc so closely? >> two things are at stake, climate and the economy. drc is one of the world's largest producers of copper and cobalt. they have untapped mineral resources worth $24 trillion. stability gives investors the confidence to exploit these resources in a way that will benefit the economy of drc, and by extension, the people. also, we are seeing that at stake is climate change because the protection of the world's largest carbon sink is in drc. also, the building of the grand dam which is one of the world's largest hydropower projects. this is at stake because whoever comes into power, the decisions will either set forward or setback the efforts to combat climate change. kriti: one of my favorite things about you is how you really

connect the dots with the africa story to the rest of the world. i want to talk about the political side. talk to us about the incumbent's track record. >> a bag of mixed fortunes, despite the headwinds of covid-19, president felix was able to grow the economy on the back of copper and cobalt. from these resources, he tripled his budget, and delivered some campaign promises to the people of drc, for example, free education. he was able to work on the international front in repairing relations with the imf, world bank. and won over support in the u.s. without jeopardizing their relationship with china, there biggest trading partner. on the other hand, there is still fighting in the eastern drc. despite the fact that he did not stop the fighting, everything the government has done has done no good in helping the violence. kriti: something we will be watching closely.

ondiro oganga monitoring got out of kigali. coming up, we go from drc to the united states. brian moynihan saying american consumers are in good shape as he increasingly sees a soft landing for the economy. our interview with the bank of america ceo is next. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have the number one research team in the business. the team do a great job. they just shifted yesterday, and they moved to more rate cuts in 2024. the real key was what do they see on in the economy? they move from half a percent growth rate annualized for the first three quarters of above

1%. they have softened their soft landing, let's say that. by doing that they have said when the fed is seeing inflation slow as fast as it is, they think we get down to load 2's inflation and it carries into 2025. the fed needs to bring the rate structure down. they are saying 200 basis points of rate cuts, 106 year and 100 in 2025. the last time we were fundamentally at that rate structure was 18 years ago. we have had a long stretch of very low rates, except for very recently, so that fueled a lot of activity, now the rate structure can be funda mentally higher. it is not a pivot, because we are seeing inflation come in, not done yet. consumer spending is consistent with a 2% inflation economy. that level of spending growth in our customers was where it was in 20 when the fed raise rates.

>> are you concerned markets are overreacting to what they heard from chair powell? >> the fed in their own admission was late, now he has to be careful to not be late to stop cutting up inflation. the market will ebb and flow, but people have to be careful, this is trading talk, the 10-year moving between 3.90 and 4.70, it is not the real economy, the real economy is still heavily restrictive and it is still coming through the system. against that, we still have a lot of stimulus, the intro structure bill, the chips act, the ira are all still coming through the system. that is the tug-of-war he is up against. but we believe he has engineered soft landing through the interest rate environment. kriti: fascinating, the man who has been talking a lot about consumer resilience in the united states saying some of the market moves are having less of an impact on the real economy. it is still restrictive policy having a figure one. that is the bank of america

chairman brian moynihan speaking to our david westin. some other stories we are watching this morning. the spanish government plans to buy a stake in telefonica of as much as 10%, worth some $2.2 billion. the move would safeguard a key strategic asset as saudi arabia builds up a position in the former telecom monopoly. it would mark a major shift for spain, who has been more reluctant than other european nations to intervene in markets and take ownership of corporations. tesla managers told some salaried employees that the company is not offering merit-based equity awards this year. the company did not give a reason for the change, but four employees from different departments told bloomberg they believe the move was widespread. workers got modest cost-of-living increases to their base salaries. i want to pivot industries. shares of fedex tumbling post-market after the company

reported profit below analyst estimates. cost cuts at the logistics company weren't enough to make up for volume declines, its airfreight unit fedex express struggling from overcapacity as commercial airlines ramp-up international flights. which brings us to an important shipping story. when you think of shipping, a lot of the question is how much of the story does the red sea tensions end up reflecting in consumer prices? this is a really good time to have this crisis, simply because of how much capacity is available. a great example is the chart on your screen coming out of the panama canal, where you have seen shipping drop. you are seeing a lot of rerouting at play, which tells you that because of these simultaneous crises, it is not the same strain on the logistics market as you saw at the end of covid when you did see supply chain shortages.

that is not the dynamic at the moment. it normally creates this element of if we talk about some sort of conflict in the red sea lasting two or three months, you are still going to see other routes around the world come to the rescue of these container liners. by extension, some of the shipping companies like fedex and dhl. coming up, a big part of that story is the inflation one. u.k. inflation due in 30 minutes. we will preview the numbers and discuss what it means

♪ kriti: good morning and welcome back to daybreak europe. the u.s. ways military strikes

on rebels in yemen in response to threats in the red sea. global trade braces for disruption. november u.k. cpi expected to be above 4%, a march to the target. a stagnant economy remains a problem. china's major lending rates are unchanged after the central bank pledged to maintain a supportive monetary stance to boost the economy. please get a quick check on markets. a thin holiday but if you look at what futures are doing you will see green on the screen which is normal given the thin holiday volume. the green on the screen is different than the pullback from european markets from yesterday. nasdaq 100 futures outperformed right here.

ftse 100 higher than 4/10 of 1% which is strange ahead of the cpi numbers but one might read it as optimism or thin trading volume. cross assets is a similar dynamic when you are talking about a 10 year yield down to basis points. rafael bostic really weighing in on the rate cut conversation and the consensus is the dynamic is way too early. you can see other members pulling back from chair powell's narrative last week. the effect will be on the x market. dollar euro under pressure down to tenths of 1%. the biggest move is the aussie dollar. your biggest bloomberg dollar index contributor because there is rba federal reserve minutes that are talking about the fact

that people wanted to hike but they ended up holding. how much pressure do you see if the world cuts rates? interesting dynamic. rent trading at 79. our top story of today's session in london we get the latest data in less than half an hour. the prime minister pledged to cut inflation and half by the end of the year so how has he done? joined by lizzy burden all over the story. it does not feel like he is doing a great job. >> we started the year over 10% but really it's interesting to ask whether we will get to the 2% target by the time of an election because the consensus is to .6% by quarter to we won't get day top until mid-may and that's probably too late for the

election or does not leave them time to campaign. the expectation is for a drop down so he would welcome that but it's twice the bank of england's target. kriti: the boe is the last talk but it feels like the tune changed since chair powell set the tone for rate cuts. we see that for the bank of england? >> andrew bailey would appreciate that. they are listening to jay powell and looking at the data more. the expectation is possibly five rate cuts from the bank of england. economists reckon they will come for two. it is the curve from markets

that the fiscal watchdog looks at to calculate head room and because of the expectation there is pressure to cut taxes in the spring and you've got conservatives clambering for him to cut inheritance tax, which is already considered in autumn. kriti: 2024 will will be fascinating. seeing some strength despite issues you laid out read lizzy burden, we thank you. the uk's financial regulator set out its plan to simplify listing to revive london stock markets. the financial authority will replace the premium listing rule for rhenium eligibility and ongoing requirements. we are monitoring that going into 2024. let's talk about global shipping

bracing for disruption in the red sea in the wake of rebel attacks on vessels. nine of the 10 largest container liners have now suspended red sea transit. take a listen to the ceo. >> i would like to think this will not last very long and it may mean there is going to be a spike in freight rates. but hopefully not for a long time. kriti: for more on developments let's bring in joey livingston wallace from dubai. we talk about military action, some major container liners stopped operating despite military presence existing. how much further can the u.s. support that area? >> it's going to be difficult.

on the one hand it is the scale and size of the problem. if you think of the area down to the straight which is the bottom of the raven peninsula that is the size of california. add the see, the approaches to the red sea and that is a gigantic area. they have a lot of ships in the coalition but the reality is they will rely on drones and satellite surveillance. all of that coming in in one place. the other thing they consider is convoys but that gets shipped through and does not resolve the problem which is why you will of seen a nice story talking about considering military action in yemen. i don't think anyone wants to go in that direction because it's hard to see where it will end

but that is in reserve. kriti: i'm glad you mentioned military action because the context is important. your colleague was telling us earlier that they yemen rebels have been under bombardment for a decade. the likelihood of the u.s. vetting involved militarily is something they've tried to avoid. what is the likelihood of that changing? >> unlikely. we've had a new administration wanting to do that. good reason after the experience in iraq and afghanistan but you could see a couple of strategies. number one is they have firepower on the water. in the coalition has incredible firepower so they can take out targets from the sea and have lingering drones that sit there

and wait for intelligence about when missiles are launched and take those out. more surgical strikes than anything else. kriti: talk about the timing of it all. bloomberg economics forecast that the conflict will last between two and three months in the red sea. is that the timeline you here? >> everyone is being cautious about predicting. think about the president. you have the coast of somalia, that went on for many years and is a different scenario. somalia was about financials whereas in the red sea it is ideological. it will depend on how the war in gaza carries on and what iran's

reaction is because in yemen they are being supported militarily and financially and in terms of intelligence by iran so this should be a diplomatic effort to get them to rain them in but the timeframe is hard to protect. kriti: we should mention there is a corporate angle which you brought up. ethiopia and somalia issuing industry is enormous. to what extent does that translate to the rest of the world? we have to leave it there but thank you very much. i want to stick to the united states. the american perspective but from a political lens. developments ahead of the 2024 presidential election, colorado's highest court disqualified donald trump from the ballot under the u.s. constitution's insurrection clause.

trump's campaign says the president will appear you to the supreme court. -- will appeal to the supreme court. bruce einhorn is all over it. no secret that president trump has been charged by not only the knighted states but various states, individual entities, for taking part in his role in the january 6 insurrection but what is the basis of the court decision specifically? bruce: those other cases are criminal and this is constitutional addressing whether or not former president trump is ineligible for office based on the 14th amendment passed after the u.s. civil war in 1860's. one of its many provisions says anyone who took an oath to support the u.s. constitution and engaged in insurrection is ineligible for office in the

u.s. at the federal level. the question before the court is did former president trump's actions in the months leading up to january 6 constitute support for insurrection act the closely divided court ruled yes, former president trump is ineligible because he engaged in insurrection. all seven of the justices on this. for appointed by democrats. of those 73 of them to send hit -- dissented saying this was premature because trump has not been convicted of insurrection crime. the case is more complicated so where we go from here is a certainty that the trump campaign will appeal. they have until january 4 to

make the appeal to the supreme court. kriti: really fascinating what you bring up. as someone who covered the arraignment in new york that was one concern. to what extent do charges of treason get in the way? the domestic response was enormous. people coming out in force to support trump regardless of the charges. talk about how the trump campaign is responding. bruce: kinko's to the supreme court because this was a state decision so when it goes to the federal level it does not go through the federal courts, it goes to the supreme court. just one of several challenges in the states with similar cases working their way through cords

in michigan, mississippi -- minnesota, oregon, others. we may see other rulings about whether former president trump is ineligible. so how quickly the supreme court takes of the case remains to be seen but the clock is ticking. the first state to begin choosing delegates on the republican side, iowa, has caucuses followed by new hampshire with the first primary. there will be pressure on the supreme court to resolve this quickly. kriti: a really interesting dynamic when it comes to how the electoral system will work. we are sitting in the london and hong kong talking about this but in the united states the election does not work by popular vote, it happens through

the electoral college which is why the point is important about caucuses. it could change the numbers. look at the 2000 election as a roadmap of how that can get in the way of the popular vote. bruce, thank you for the crucial context. coming up we go from politics to the corporate story. artificial intelligence went mainstream. the biggest players of the year and how it will perform in 2024. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is daybreak europe. i want to get to our top stories starting in asia. alibaba all is replaced

executives in plants to create a firm to oversee assets. eddie wu will take over the commerce business replacing trudy die in a series of changes at the once dominant operator. it is becoming synonymous with changes in management. their management has changed consistently and stability is a big question for investors. sticking with tech and bringing it global i'm going to start this over. i keep getting my years mixed up but i'm excited for the new year. 2023 is the year ai went mainstream. openai, chatgpt move from being obscure research into a household name. joining me is bloomberg's aggie cantrell all over the story. oh start with the openai story.

big drama recently. walk us through the big winners. aggie: openai, the investment from microsoft kicked off the year's as a significant push into artificial intelligence. with the launch of chatgpt there was a focus for a lot of companies that realized that when it comes to chatbots they are more capable than people believed. we saw ai become relevant because of that but subsequently many other companies came out of the woodwork. we saw nvidia become one of the companies valued over $1 trillion, a significant parlay for the chip industry because semi conductors are the building blocks of this technology as they have been for a lot of developments. that is something we've seen in the fact that big companies have been committing to retooling

data centers in order to make them capable of training ai. we are looking at big winners and a lot of it is semi-conductors and big tech companies based out of silicon valley that had those capabilities and build on what they had. in europe in terms of investment and how large the companies aren't, they are playing catch-up with the united states. kriti: interesting. we know that the founders of ai, sam altman and elon musk who is trying to give his own view of ai used in tesla cars have said this is actually -- even though it has existed for so long. can you talk about the risks for ai in 2024? does it go from a buzz word to

more of a risk factor next year? aggie: risk will come as more companies deploy ai. productivity tools and things that take away decision-making from human beings to ai. we've seen the bank of england warning about the risk for u.k. financials as a lot of banking institutions are deploying ai for customer service, fraud detection, data analysis. these use ai but the more you give those tools to artificial intelligence, you need to have human oversight because you can pose serious risk if those things become out of people's hands and those decisions, who is culpable becomes unclear. that is part of it and something i look at a lot in berlin is cybersecurity.

how cyber hacks have become more capable because of utilization of artificial intelligence to make targeted attacks on particular actors. that is something businesses are concerned about because as attacks become more advanced and accurate they are going to be easy for people to click on a false link or something else in their emails. kriti: something that is very scary when we talk about major parts of the world. on the one side where it is scary you should have the positive aspect of ai. larry fink says it could be the solution to labor problems. two sides of the coin. aggie cantrell, we thank you for your coverage this year. plenty more ahead, stick with us . this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> in terms of getting glimpses of the future look at three things. inflation is too high. we've gotta to get it down. paying attention to the three-month, the six month, those will be true contributors to inflation. with those they have been lower than headline numbers. >> the market's reaction seemed to not be rooted in how the fomc works. the open marquis test market committee does not decide on six months from now.

that is not how it works. kriti: atlanta fed president rafael bostic there. what is really important is both are raining in what jay powell said that the fight on inflation is interesting. chair powell said we need to consider whether or not hire for longer is there right strategy. equity markets drove a lot of inflation. you're seeing outperformance but it is very thin trading volume. it is important when you look at what the s&p is doing, do you invest at this moment? can we talk about easing, one chart i want to put on your radar is important. if you look at the relative strength and just how overbought

it is looking. the santa rally does not help and that's where this piece of the equation is important. this piece says we will see strength in the s&p and russell 2000. do you buy if the federal reserve might be easing? that is the question. what is the entry point to 2024? january is a weak month for equity around the world. a topic of discussion for markets today which comes up next read stick with us, this, this is bloomberg. ♪

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