amber: i'm amber kanwar. welcome to bloomberg markets. sonali: i'm sonali basak. on the s&p 500. more gains in the nasdaq 100. the dollar spot index does not know what to do. a lot of economic data today with payrolls and ism data and we were all looking at the dollar down on the day. now it's pretty much unchanged. the two year yield also unchanged.

around 439 on the day. crude is back on the rise of little on the day. 1.5% higher on the day. about a 78 handle, nearly a 79 hand on brent crude, higher than the start of the week. amber: stunning. job days. see ofcom out there. nvidia is popping out there, getting a big endorsement from bank of america. in a note to clients today, saying the company can generate $100 billion in free cash flow trading at a 20%-30% discount to other magnificent seven peers, despite double and triple free cash flow and revenue growth profile. different for volunteer. jeffries downgrading to underperform saying ai height is overblown. possible mna news. maybe the first big deal of the year. reports of by the wall street

journal that synopsys is looking to buy ansys in an all stock deal that values the company around $400 per share. the details of which, according to the journal, could be announced next week. that you are seeing muted enthusiasm on the part of shareholders and stock up about 1% but there was a quick pop my deadline had. sonali: robust a job stayed in the u.s. today sparked doubts about how soon and deeply the fed can start cutting interest rates. here is bill dudley's reaction. bill: this reinforces the notion the fed won't be in a rush to cut rates. the last couple weeks there has been a change in the view that fed rate cuts might materialize more slowly with less force. this reinforces that. the economy is still doing pretty well. it looks like we will have growth in the fourth quarter of 2% plus. financial conditions, at least over the last couple months. i think the risk is the fed will

keep rates higher for longer. sonali: the labor -- report is just one part of the started on wall street stocks rose after the ism's age of overall services decreased the most since march. bloomberg's kristine aquino joins us now. if you stick between that gap between jobs data and wage inflation and ism data, what are traitors listening to more? does the reaction stick? website think the some of today's data confirms the u.s. economy is on the path to a soft landing. we are seeing labor market cooling despite the headline on the non-foreign payrolls number. the rest of the details in the report indicate a rapidly cooling labor market according to our bloomberg economics chief correspondent anna wong and her team. they are still seeing signs of cooling in that market. it is enough to push the fed to start cutting rates probably, still seen her rather than later.

in terms of market expectation as well, march is a bit of a live meeting now, but may is definitely still on the table. overall in 2024 we still see five rate cuts in terms of 25 basis point cuts. amber: the markets are treating it as a wash because of conflicting data points. it could come down to cpi next week. we expect a little pickup in inflation. kristine: absolutely, amber. the thing to remember here is the fed does not want to conduct policy based on one data point. yes, the jobs number today, and ism taken together do indicate a weaker economy. but that is not all they are looking at, right? same with inflation next week. one number really does not determine all of the fed's policy. it will be interesting in terms of how much the markets will push the fed, particularly, with the timing of the first rate cut. again, march, a bit of a live meeting now. we have seen a period of an

odds of a rate cut in march about 50%. may is still very in play. what could change market expectations in how much the fed will do this year? amber: thank you kristine aquino. let's bring in pimco economist tiffany wilding. how do you make sense of the two conflicting data points on the jobs front this morning? tiffany: overall, i think you have to be careful reading too much into anyone report. i think the reports we saw this morning, the jobs report, the ism services data, i think there was a good bit of noise in that. on one hand, the ism that services data suggested employers, many employers, actually reduced employment. that number fell into a deeply recessionary level. the headline number on the actual payrolls report presented

a very different picture. it was a pretty resilient labor market and economy. i think you have to take all this with a grain of salt. that is what the markets are doing. they aren't really reacting that much to the reports this morning. sonali: there are reports this morning and more data next week. when you think about the path of inflation, there have been a lot of conflicting signals. think about wages, about oil prices. how closely are you reading the numbers next week? tiffany: obviously markets care about any of the inflation reports. i think what the federal reserve cares about when they look at it is, are we coming down into levels that are more consistent with the federal reserve mandate? we have been saying the federal reserve probably will be ok with inflation on a year-over-year basis. they probably need it somewhere below 3% just for optics to start cutting rates. we have seen quarterly inflation

rates especially in the core pce measure the fed cares a lot about in that to point something range. but we are waiting for the year-over-year rate to get down. overall, we think the fed probably starts to cut closer to the middle of next year. but certainly march is in play, as of markets have suggested. a lot is priced into the market at this point. amber: this morning we had u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen make comments after the jobs report saying a soft landing is here. she did caveat methane, we will see what happens the rest of the year. do you agree much of the hard work, the slow down, has already happened? what is your base case for 20 24? tiffany: we have been calling our base case a soft-ish landing. ultimately, we think if you do get any sort of mild recession or economic stagnation, it will

be not comparable to the 2008 recessionary experience or slowing experience, or even, a pandemic experience. ultimately, the unemployment rate, we don't it -- expect it to rise in that manner either. overall, we think next year will feel different from this year. we expect growth to stagnate. i think the things that drove the outperformance and resilience in the u.s. economy this year, including fiscal policy that was still sloshing around the economy, the excess real savings balance is, those types of things are normalizing. when those things normalize, we are still ultimately left with tight monetary policy, even though financial conditions have eased somewhat. i think growth does stagnate in the u.s. next year. that will feel a lot different than the 2.5 percent growth we got this year. unemployment will probably rise. the federal reserve can start to cut interest rates. sonali: there are so many

expectations for interest rate cuts. more and more investors tell as they are preparing for a possibility in the other direction, almost just in case. how much risk is there rates actually go higher from here? tiffany: i think the outcomes here, just some of the range of possible outcomes, continues to be wide. the pandemic, the government support. it is a very difficult to pinpoint with any accuracy more recently economic trends. you have to be open to a wide range of outcomes. i think this continues to include the potential inflation could reaccelerate. when we look at market pricing in the rates market, we look at what the fed funds market, for example, is pricing in in terms of fed cuts, and we compare that to equities and other risky assets, it looks to us like the market is very heavily pricing in a soft landing outcome.

that is not a done deal yet. certainly, the probability has increased. but as you say, there are other outcomes. inflation re-accelerating, as well as the economy doing wires then expected. it seems like markets are not prepared for that. when we think about the bond market here, i think rates are at levels that suggest to us risks are more symmetrical, around whether they increase or fall. but when you look at riskier assets prices, the high-yield market, or even equities, inflation re-accelerating or downside economic risk, neither of those scenarios are really good for those riskier assets. so, ultimately, you have to think about the balance of risk in the scenarios here. amber: preparation is key for 2024, i suppose. people lost bond markets and made money in them in recent months. pimco stephanie wilding, thank you for your range of wild -- outcomes. next we talk about peloton.

shares rise after its deal with tiktok. we talk about those shares in our stock of the hour. k w us. this is bloomberg. build a commercial scale data center can be a couple hundred million dollars or more. million dollars or more. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance?

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amber: this is bloomberg markets. i'm amber kanwar with should. our stock of the hour is peloton adding to thursday's 14% jump following news the company is partnering with tiktok for a new fitness hub. evercore isi says the deal marks a step forward in improving brand image, perception, and awareness. it could boost cap engagement and subscriptions. joining us is bloomberg's alex barinka.

we can see what peloton shareholders are interested in. the opportunity for a bigger market. is this also a win for tiktok? alex: it is certainly also a win for tiktok. tiktok is trying to evangelize a video in the u.s.. the social media giant nose live video well and knows people will logon. u.s. users and users in places like the u.k. have not been into life. this is an exciting strategic partner for peloton with peloton going through a rebrand trying to reach out to more, perhaps, younger consumers. tiktok is trying to bring in compelling content from partners who are more than influencers. the timing here, of course, with the new year new you fitness idea is one popping off on tiktok now. all told, it seems the street is very happy with peloton.

tiktok's private investors i am sure are watching this closely as well. sonali: what do you think this means for future partnerships with tiktok and their broader ambitions? alex: i think life will continue to be a big focus. live shopping in southeast asia markets is a lucrative opportunity for tiktok. when they tried to bring that to u.s. and the u.k. a did not really work. the company separated its strategy and said, let's just get people to tune in to live constant even if there is no shopping involved. for an audience more used to buying content they see in their feed rather than live video. this partnership might portend additional live video. they have been paying creators a lot. there influencers on the platform, they are trying to get them to stream live. it seems like that is working a bit and people are starting to tune in. with something like fitness where tiktok and its interesting algorithm can target the right people, this could be a sticky

use case for them that could lay out a strategic path forward to think about what other strategies might work for users in markets in places like the u.k.. sonali: interesting stuff. in the next hour we speak with an analyst from evercore that overseas palatine. and u.s. secretary of education miguel cardona talks student debt and antisemitism. it's a big week on the topic given what we have had over at harvard. stick with us. this is bloomberg.

sonali: this is bloomberg markets. i'm sonali basak with m ¦. as we talk about jobs today i wanted to highlight the number

86%, the number of k-12 public schools in the united states. when it comes to hiring teachers for the 202320 24 school year. 45% respondents believed their schools were understaffed. earlier today bloomberg's wall street week david westin sat down with education secretary mcgill cardona to talk about concerns on campus over antisemitism and the biden administration student debt relief agenda. take a listen. secretary cardona: it's the primary responsibility to make sure students are safe and can be themselves on campus. i have spoken to students over the last couple months that felt harassed. this is a starting baseline to make sure students feel safe on campus. we also have to make sure we are providing better access to higher education. when i became secretary of

education the president open, look, we have to fix it. we need higher education to be accessible and affordable to be accessible and affordable tomorrow. we are very -- working really hard to open more doors to higher education, whether that is redesigning fafsa, which, we know will open the door to 600 thousand more students across the country. i am excited about that. 600,000 more students will have access to higher education prayed the safe plan is any income driven repayment plan. a student like me, 30 years ago, a first generation college student, i did not know if i that afford college. i did not want to put that on my parents. now we have programs that give more confidence and not only the ability for students to finish college, but pay off their loans and be successful. that has generational impact. david: there have been some issues with fafsa this year. from my point of view, working with some students, they had difficulties. how we worked out those difficulties? secretary cardona: we had in the

last four days over 500,000 successful applications. yesterday we did not have a waiting room on fafsa. it's getting better. keep this in mind. we had a system that is older than me, that had not been touched in about 40 years, 45 years. that is being overhauled to allow 600,000 more students to access federal-aid. think about what that means for our country. because we had to overhaul it, we did a soft launch. we are testing it and working out the kinks in a brand-new system and i'm excited about the potential. i expect with this new, better fafsa, the fafsa completion rate in the country will skyrocket and more students will have access to higher education to fulfill their dreams. david: that investment is financed in a significant part by student debt, a significant issue. where are we on that? specifically, are we getting less repayment of the debt that in the past? is that because people aren't

paying? or are we forgiving more? secretary cardona: weaver gave $132 billion taking -- going after for-profit colleges taking advantage of students. i will be frank, we are cleaning up a big mess. we are improving the processes so five years from now we aren't in the same situation. whether it is the income driven repayment program, the safe program, improving the college scorecard to make sure parents know what they are signing up for and will be bang for, improving that accountability as well. we are improving the situation so we aren't in a situation where students are left with a lot of debt and low income. david: our students paying less than before? secretary cardona: no. we are at about 60% of students back on repayment. it was like 70% before the pandemic. there is a little bit there -- dip there, but we continue to

improve the numbers. we have a fresh start program meaning that folks who wanted to default, we are setting them back up for success by removing penalties and letting them get a fresh start at repayment. the save program is affordable, meaning people that would go into default are now more likely to be successful paying bills. let's keep in mind, the debt forgiveness work we are doing is a result of not only the pandemic, but also, over a million people going into default every year. we are working on fixing a broken system, making higher education something people can value that is connected to the careers we know are coming with all the investments in america the president has made. david: there is a lot of talk about fiscal deficit in washington. what about education deficits. we came out of the pandemic with a deficit. a lot of schoolkids, especially to kids that could afford it the least, have fallen behind. how do we make that up? mcgill: i am a fourth grade

teacher at heart. i started as a fourth-grade teacher. one thing that made me decide to become a teacher is i wanted to address achievement disparities in opportunity gaps in the country. now as secretary of education i feel even more passionate. the pandemic were sent achievement disparities. within months of serving as president, the president was able to usher in $130 billion, the most education funding i have seen in my career as an educator, to address disparities. district's are using it well. we are starting to see results. in nashville, achievement rates are better than pre-pediment levels. we are seeing graduation rates in chicago and clark county, nevada improve. what this says, david, is, education is an investment. as we sunset the american rescue plan dollars, it's critical we don't talk about education and federal funding as a cliff, but a baton being passed. state and local leaders need to understand the importance of

investing in education. our plan is not just to get back to pre-pediment levels. i want to raise the bar and lead the world. if we do that, we have to look at education and students as an investment. sonali: breaking news. bobby jain the former co-cio at millenia management is forming one of the biggest hedge fund launches ever, slashing fees to draw clients before his hedge fund debut. some investors are being offered performance fees of as low as 10% at a time when the industry is facing a tough fundraising environment. this is one of the most highly anticipated hedge fund losses is a -- launches of all time with dozens of people scattered across wall street for the firm. the launch is expected for this summer. it is interesting to see him already changing the rules of the game before he gets started. amber: that speaks to the tough fundraising environment amid uncertainties out there. sonali: certainly. we already know he hired more than a half dozen people in

senior leadership roles to manage different funds and cio posts. it is an interesting time in markets and we will watch that along with hedge funds through it all. stick with us. this is bloomberg. how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now.

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scarlet: the first week of 2024 is almost in the books. i'm scarlet fu. sonali: we are kicking you off to the closing bell in the united states. a conflicting signal on the market but we have green on the screen. the s&p 500 flirting with his first week of declines in weeks. today green on the screen. .2% higher. looking at a dollars what index. this shot higher and then shot lower after we got the isn data.