>> i am still very bullish for 2024 what i think it will be different from the rally we saw last year. >> there are some structural changes in the market. >> i think it is the economic downturn that's not priced in the market. >> the markets are on the good news of the economic front which is causing yields to back up being bad news on the equity front. >> right now it's not one of those times. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, good

morning for our audience worldwide. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. your equity mark on the s&p 500's positive. let's bring up bitcoin. it's happened, the sec says the spot etf has been approved. tom: katie was a st. yesterday. i reamed her about gary gensler and how upset the chairman is over this entire bitcoin folly. and three hours later all hell breaks loose at the sec. jonathan: the breach was not due to any issues with that system adding the account did not have two factor authentication enabled at the time of the incident. pretty embarrassing stuff for the sec. a lot of people have been waiting to see the result of. tom: you see this with the number of people.

and also the desperation to get out front on this. ages ago we had gas wars where it would be $.29 a gallon and there would be a gas war. that's where bitcoin is. >> in and around 46 k. we need to talk about a better mood. on this program yesterday publishing shortly thereafter rest in peace, consumer expectations are climbing as inflation is calling. small business sentiment hitting a five months high. tom: it is there and you can see it in the data. 12.83 on the vix is all you have to know about in the market. we see today with the nasdaq. the drawdown on this crushing difficult january and the dow jones industrial average is. >> no drama.

let's get to the scores on the s&p 500 just about positive. yields are coming in a couple of basis points three and 98 86 on the u.s. 10 year. that currency positive by 0.16%. tons to look out for through the day. the fed speak 315 eastern time we have metzger, mckee sitting down, a kashkari coming up later in the week. in the last 24 hours howard marks annual letter and kenneth broke off with the blistering project syndicate essay that rates will stay higher. john williams discussed that saying rates will come back down to some form of where we were before covid. people like the investor powered marks say you are wrong. jonathan: the week begins this

afternoon with that speech for the new york fed president john williams. cpi onto ppi on friday. i know you've had the circled on the calendar for the last month. tom: i want to go to rosenberg. i guess you have to go back to the tried-and-true which is the vector on service sector disinflation. there's been some good news there. will we continue to see that. is it all about goods inflation. jonathan: we will be talking about the earnings. this friday you will hear from j.p. morgan from citigroup and bank of america and wells fargo all reporting continuing into the weekend. >> in one year you see j.p. morgan up 23%. it's real simple here. the zeitgeist. gina martin adams among those

leading on this. it is a pretty grim view out there. i thought yesterday was great on this one. the bottom line is there some worthy people saying this could be better than good. jonathan: good morning to you all. global allocation fund portfolio manager at blackrock. great to catch up. i know you are overweight stocks last year let's talk about what you're doing just around sectors carrying back exposure. why is that? >> we still think in 2024 we do think it will be a bit of different year from last year which was brought by an enormous gain in the market. probably more muted gains but a broader rally. thinking about what are the parts of the market which were left behind in 2023. some of the industrials. health care.

it's not as if the long-term themes around big tech gone away. but maybe use some of the overweight you had last year to fund opportunities and some of these value areas that are really cheap in a market that in most people's view is rather expensive. >> what's the underlying nominal gdp that will drive this economy forward? russ: i think it's about 4%, 4.5%. one of the things that happened was the earnings held up. they held up because nominal gdp held up. 2% growth inflation normalizes back to 2.5%. that's a year where you probably can fit or exceed the 10% or 11% earnings growth baked into the market. when you ask why is the market going higher i think that's the

main reason. >> what are you seeing with cash right now. do we wait to see the market money fund move or is it happening right now. >> i think it's starting to happen. it is such a trickle in something what that will take time. for the first time in 15 years we will see that in cash get a decent return. not only is it a decent nominal return it's a decent real return. we speak to advisors and clients that money is coming out slowly but as we get in to the middle of the year and start to see the fed begin to lower rates i think we will see more flows into spreads and equities into assets that will maintain an environment where rates are going to start to come down. >> i did not hear go into bonds. why is that? >> it really depends on where we are talking about. we are a little bit underweight duration for a benchmark.

most of that is on the long end view and has more to do with the supply of treasuries when we've got structural 7% deficits versus gdp, 2.5 trillion dollars that needs to be funded every year. what is the right term premium that you get for the add on. however if you look at other parts of the bond market investment grade, high yield, securitized, em, we see the nominal yields you get is pretty attractive so we look at those parts of the bond market were actually overweight relative to the benchmark. jonathan: are you saying the debate taking place in washington dc, the spending deadlines are already shaping your approach to the treasury market? >> 80's lasts about the integral question of whether or not you can get a resolution on the fund it's more about those longer-term issues.

think about what happened at the end of last year. we were focused on things like the treasury funding announcement. the market was moving on whether or not an auction went well. it had been a long time since we saw those events really dramatically move the bond market. for the first time in a long time particularly back in august, september and october there was a big debate about what is the right premium you need to own long-term treasuries in an environment where supplies are structurally high. >> what's the real yield going to do? the most shocking thing i've heard in the new year. we are deep into 2024. over a j.p. morgan modeling out the collapse of the 10 year real yield. a lot of people are pushing against it. she's down to 1.0%. what happens to the world if it delivered a 1.1% 10 year

inflation-adjusted yield. >> if you got down to that level and clearly we are not there yet and you we were a long ways away from it. you would want to be more constructive on bonds. my question is we talk about that real yield what part of the curve are we talking about. the short end, the belly or the long end. in our discussions a lot of that debate is around the long end and that interaction between what is the right term premium you will need in an environment characterized by the supply we know we will get in the coming years. >> the bond, what bonds are saying about inflation, the nominal gdp call. it just simply implies a continued disinflation. so then circle back to the 10 year yield and frame it around 4%. what will that dynamic look like

over the year. russ: i think that is probably about right. if you think about where the 10 is going to trade. i don't think it's crazy in 2024 in that zip code. that's not a bad environment. it doesn't necessarily mean you want to back up the truck on the long end of the curve but if you broaden that out and think about risky assets we have an environment where we stick the soft landing and you get that for percent gdp, a volatility is coming down. the fed is lowering rates on the front end of the curve, it is not a bad environment to own risk. jonathan: great to hear from you. appreciate it. if you've made this kind of call in the middle of october with 10 year yields through 5% in the two year at 5.25" i'm not sure how many people would have believed it. jonathan: the emotions here.

tangible from both the bulls and the bears as well. i would -- my answer is to extend the timeline. let's go through the exercise. where are we march 31 we have the outlook for 2024. where are we on the fourth of july we celebrate the colony's victory over the mother country. the answer is we do not have a clue. we have no clue. >> let's talk about what's priced. the dream of a soft landing and the potential for a lose lose situation. posing this question. with markets now pricing in a rapid pace of cuts, reading a lose lose situation based on historical precedent it probably requires a recession to get these rate cuts. if the economy outperforms the markets disappointed by a more hawkish outcome. are we in a lose lose situation after what we've priced.

jonathan: she is off curating the ski slope now. the answer is i'm not going to do lose-lose, a win-win. what i suggest is there is a huge amount of mystery and my comfort whether i'm right or wrong is to say i am back, what's nominal gdp to underpin revenue growth. and as russ said, four to 4.5% is not bloom or covid but that's a pretty good number. jonathan: this is what was said on this program yesterday. a real gdp through the year ahead. delivering some surgical rate cuts and you can be in a decent position. it's great just as a thought exercise. he just sees a continuation of the trend. things will be ok. >> the banks are going to underplay the profitability on friday. even if there is some chat.

some real challenges. john and lisa getting ready to curate davos. lisa told me that. >> like a curator that works in the museum. >> i am home. i think it's going to be interesting to see larry fink is such a presence at the meetings of the world economic forum. it will be interesting to see how they handle which is really taken to heart over the last few years. >> we are going to touch a little bit later this morning and the next hour eastern time. from new york city, equity futures just about positive. good morning. ♪

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>> he was not informed until last friday that secretary austen was in the hospital. not informed until this morning that the root cause of the hospitalization was prostate cancer. we recognize this did not unfold the way it should have. on so many levels. not just the notification process but the transition -- we all want to make sure we learn from that. >> stunning the last couple of days in washington. john kirby addressing defense

secretary lloyd austen's decisions and hospitalizations. now learning it was due to's -- complications from prostate cancer. >> suddenly it is serious. the bottom-line is now we know it is serious and is always serious. i would suggest a tone change. i think there was a mystery of what's this for. jokes were made including me. now we know and it is serious and they will have to go on what they do. >> i'm not sure how you dress anything of this up. still plenty of questions as to how this happens. plenty of questions. >> it's the overlay which you and i have personally witnessed in washington of the biden administration whether democrat or republican, independent. is what is the character communication within any administration. some administrations there's a

cacophony of the trump process. there's others where it's all this massive delegation. reagan was notorious for delegating. >> i get the feeling the approach appears to be we are not to talk to you. just trust us. we can take care of this. it did not feel very adult. >> that's the way it is. the bottom line is there is that whole trust attitude which drives people nuts of all political persuasions. we will get a brief now and this is really special because in nashua new hampshire there is more -- there's a dr. norman chris elementary school 50 arlington street. matthew bartlett knows each and every ward. he is hard-core new hampshire and joins us this morning. derby field advisor. a republican strategist with

service in the trump administration until a certain january day eight. joining surveillance for the first time. what was it like on january 6 when you said see you. >> it was a very hard day here in this town in washington and i remember walking home. it was during covid and crossing the capital seeing the utter mayhem and feeling of utter disgust on what was just the easiest decision i've ever made in my career which is mr. secretary i hereby resign from the state department. tom: decisions will be made in new hampshire, what's the tone you see among republicans? matthew: exactly. it is january and the community the country is looking at. a lot of the snow covered roads.

we were looking at what is either the beginning or may the end. president trump has a significant lead. there are really two battlegrounds. iowa he may have locked up. and it's a question of expectations and then over in new hampshire where nikki haley may be putting together some puzzle pieces with her granite heels on climbing the mountain and may shock the trump campaign and the world. if so then we have a race. if president trump really blows out in all states i think this nomination might be wrapped up pretty quickly. >> you've been on the ground with every candidate in the field. do you see anything on the ground as difficult to reconcile with what we see in the polls. matthew: sure. right now, polls you will see a lot of national polls. those are certainly lagging indicators. the state polls of the leading

indicators. the nomination process in a national election it's a state-by-state event and right now in iowa and new hampshire the race is not nationalized rather it is personalized. people get to go and meet the candidates up front. hear from them directly unfiltered free from media, free from ads, get to ask questions and get to where people can make a mistake and i think that's where we -- what we've seen nikki haley due to a high degree. >> what's the number one issue attracting voters to the likes of nikki haley. >> i think it is probably a mixture of policies, may be the biden administration whether it's foreign policy, domestic spending, inflation pushing people away from their vote in maybe 2020 or the democratic party but more importantly looking back towards what people see as a firm republican party

but maybe he is absent some of the mayhem and personality deficits but former president trump has displayed for the better part of a decade. tom: visiting often from pangaea. making a comment a number of months ago saying there's a complete misjudgment about the number of gop who really aren't in love with the former president. and politico jonathan martin the headline where are all the anti-trump republicans, where are they. are there any in concord, new hampshire. matthew: certainly. if you look at new hampshire it is the only purple state, the only swing state in addition to be an early state. republicans can only vote in the republican primary. democrats can only vote in the democratic primary. independents 10 vote in either one. so right now the independents of new hampshire, those who decide the general election will have a significant role in choosing the

republican nominee or at least impacting that. right now it's as if they are going to nikki haley. there is a trump fatigue factor. when you go to her town halls one of the biggest applause lines you hear, she is quite candid and says poling says donald trump might be up one to four points on joe biden i am up 17 points so i think a lot of strong conservatives look at that as a resounding rationale for her candidacy and a lot of independent voters find her to be the goldilocks candidate. >> what does president biden need to do to garner those disaffected votes. it does he need to communicate with them like he's communicating with the pentagon? matthew: i think communication is a good start. putting priority that you listen to those that it is a warm place. maybe some of his policies have been rather progressive. for the past four years really

attuned to the left wing of his party. as we turn a corner into a potential general election he really has to make sure that coalition he built stays with him. that they do not feel deflated and that's from the left on certain issues which may be more sensitive. maybe it's foreign policy issues as we see in michigan. those disaffected voters who may be liked trump's policy but thought his personality was too much, now it's going to be a choosing time potentially between trump and biden. and who can swing those voters write back. >> just to wrap things up. you've got ron versus nikki on cnn and in the former president counter programming on fox news. what's the approach going to be. are they going after each other or the former president. >> it's going to be both. more than anything right now the republican party wants somebody with attitude and swagger and

that is certainly why donald trump has had a command over the party not just over the past few months but the past few years. it is a performance, it's how you take a punch, how you land a punch. nikki haley has really made her bones in this race by lining up at debates. voters appreciate that. >> let's continue the conversation through this month. on the tv program in later this evening. >> desantis will be fascinating the next two weeks. >> how they approach each other in the former president. good morning to you all. equity futures just about unchanged. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. the nasdaq we are taking you to small caps as well on the s&p just about unchanged. a marginal move lower. on the nasdaq doing ok. tech was ok as well. the nasdaq is up by .2% on the nasdaq 100. >> on the data we talked about and it's off the radar and shouldn't be off the radar. it is idiosyncratic but nevertheless we will have a milestone measured path to 30

turkish lira per dollar. we are in the land of the great steve hankey of johns hopkins university. the answer is the continued depreciation, devaluation. i will say it's an idiosyncratic story until it is not. but 29 point x x turkish lira is something to watch into friday's earnings. >> i will get you a round up a moment. the two-year, 10 year, 30 year. really small moves in either direction over the last three days or so. down to 43413. we talked about how the week begins this afternoon. hearing from the new york fed president. cpi data friday morning. all of that still to come. the 10 year has been in and around 4% for the last few sessions. we are down a couple of basis points. in foreign exchange let's talk about euro-dollar. really quite stable.

when was the last time we moved -- it moved four months ago. jonathan: things are settling down. we are from the ecb president next week in switzerland. let's get to the top stories. boeing ceo dave calhoun admitting the company's mistake as it deals with the fallout from the fuselage panel blowing out during an alaska airlines flight. calhoun speaking at the factory. >> all i can think about, i did not know what happened or whoever was supposed to -- i have kids, grandkids and so do you. this stuff matters. >> the faa saying boeing's instructions for checking planes were insufficient and the company will revise them. every time we go over the story

the more you get fresh details, new reporting every single hour and day, the near miss the took place. it is absolutely shocking. tom: it harkens back i think australia has some equivalencies. what i'm going to do is listen to adults and the adult in the room for bloomberg surveillance is brooke. she was lights out yesterday about the restructuring that needs to be done in this nation institutionally to get airline economics, airline safety on the same page. >> brooke mentioned the culture of this company with something rotten at the heart of boeing. that's a question people are asking. perhaps that will be part of the conversation going forward. just what is going on at boeing. tom: my bias is the day they moved out of seattle the company

was changed. jonathan: let's move to this story, the latest in washington dc, doctors revealing secretary of defense lloyd austin has been hospitalized due to complications from prostate cancer. the white house admitted it did not fully know about the diagnosis until yesterday. given what it is now we hope a speedy recovery. personal issues aside, clearly there were protocols that were not followed here in this administration. >> you've got a guy on the west point. make sure he is tough as nails. this guy played rugby. so this is somebody right from the start at west point who has been tough as nails. but you've got to just say to yourself we have to get through this gracefully. what's next. many people are suggesting with his illness he should find a

constructive and graceful way to resign. jonathan: there was nothing graceful with the sec saying his account was compromised after sharing approach -- a post. gary gensler stepping in minutes later on the social media platforms writing the sec account was compromised, and authority -- unauthorized tweet was posted. adding the account did not have two factor authentication enabled at the time of the incident. this just embarrassing all around. there's nothing graceful about any of this yesterday afternoon. >> it's been really difficult and what i find unfortunate. a collegial debate about bitcoins say within a retirement plan and all of that. i will go back to january 8 far more important than a busted tweet at the sec, a thread where they do a sequence of tweets.

investments in crypto assets also would be exceptionally risky and are often volatile. a number of major platforms have become insolvent. that's from the financial advisory. >> still waiting for a decision. maybe it comes later on today. >> never have i seen a chairman so seemingly against spending legislation. never have seen it. important cpi report. all these other stories have been a distraction. chief u.s. inflation economist and high-frequency economics. the colleague in crime yesterday with a blistering note on eu inflation of 1.9%. are we heading for sub 2% inflation in the u.s.? >> we are looking at a pattern

of inflation, a direction that's going to show pretty substantial duration from this point on. we have already seen a substantial move and we think the dynamics of the labor market supply demand and the demand side of the economy, supply-side issues have mostly been resolved barring any geopolitical effects from this point on. that demand side effect we do think on a quarterly basis we can get to that 2% quickly. tom: high-frequency economics china report is always worth reading. dovetail that on what that does. >> there is what we are importing in terms of from china. it's the domestic component they are worried about right now in the u.s. in terms of services inflation. we are seeing it as quickly as

we expected. especially that housing component. if you look at the standing patterns. it has stabilized at that 2%. if you look at the outrage versus the third quarter and what happened. but it's just that rates have changed in the core services inflation are just so elevated and that's the component that needs to really settle more substantially. we think the housing component will come through going forward. jonathan: we spoke to renaissance macro and they see they are pointing to consumer and business confidence beginning to pick up. do you see any pick up the economy again as we progress through the year. >> there's a lot that's going to go right for households and businesses in 2024. right now the consumer is starting to feel a bit better. inflation will continue to calm

down. real wages are rising. there's a lot that's positive for households and there's a lot that's positive for businesses because interest rates are going to go down. the policy stance will become less restrictive and credit conditions and financial restrictions will ease. we think there is a chance that the upside surprises in the economy. it's just in the very near term they will step back because they think interest rate will go down and holding back on purchases. that's what we are trying to figure out. where is that dynamic and where does the fed take that next step. >> i think it's more important now because there's so much data , leading indicators, a soft data versus hard. what are you putting more weight on? what's the better guide for you? rubeela: we are focused squarely

on the labor market. now we are focused on the labor market. is there going to be a more substantial separation with indications for how households will respond. we still think baseline projection is job growth will remain positive. since early 2022 that unemployment rate has been below 4%. we don't think there will be a surgeon there but we are focused on the labor market in terms of our their lag effects of policy that are going to show up. >> are you going to be looking month over month dynamic year-over-year dynamic of the data tomorrow. and in what way do you look at the annualized data. is it three month annualized at high-frequency economics or is there some secret sauce. >> we are looking at the month on month trend but also how he

emphasized that six month annualized change, we are also looking at that. i think you have to look at everything, of the quarterly changes. our estimates suggest that annualized exchange will pick up a little bit and might catch the markets attention. it is a whole host of things we are looking at. including the month on month and year on year. for us it's all about that target. it's the year on year change and that's what we are focused on. >> how will the fed fund into this. looking towards march or even a rate cut earlier than that. where are you actually on a rate cut off of your guesstimate for tomorrow. >> we think the fed -- the first rate cut is going to come in june. we think the inflation picture is going to include substantially and by june they

will have enough information in terms of how restrictive the policy rate will be progressively more restrictive as inflation comes down and by june they feel that enough progress on the labor market that the policy rate does not need to be overly restrictive. our first projection inflation surprises to the downside more than what we are expecting. >> thank you for the update and the insight. high-frequency economics. just on with her 2024 market outlook. this is there view on central banks. they navigated a small -- soft landing thus far. it leads us to predict rate reduction starting in q2. alongside what was said just there. >> this is important because of where it's coming from and the process looking at granular data

. i cannot say enough how important it is for evercore isi to look at what trucking is doing. other esoteric stuff. we are all looking at who is speaking today at the fed. not looking at what john williams will say. he wants to know what trucks are doing in little rock. >> a couple of things you can say it on the surface sound contradictory. but then we can deliver rate cuts, rate reductions. i wonder if john williams entertains that conversation later this afternoon. can you deliver those surgical rate cuts at the same time without letting them become more restrictive. tom: he is going to cure rate in the different ideas and i wonder how much the fiscal dynamic in qt will slip into his speech. i think people want to hear from

a monetary theorist about the yellen world. about what qt dynamics would be best. jonathan: and the sequencing. just a feeling you take away qt before you start reducing interest rates and then when you start talking about reducing interest rates you think more about what's happening with real rates. and trying to keep things pretty still. i think that's good to be the conversation. tom: everything i'm looking at the real rate. >> equities unchanged on the s&p 500. jeffries with the latest on the boeing near disaster of the last few days. more on that still to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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100% transparency every step of the way. we will work with the ntsb who was investigating the accident itself to find out what the root cause is. we have long experience with this group. jonathan: a strong address from the boeing ceo speaking at a companywide meeting to address it 737 max nine plane. from new york city this morning good morning. if you are just waking up this is how the scene is set. no drama on the equity market totally unchanged. the bond market not doing much either. 39943. talking about the calendar for the next few days. we will hear from john williams later on this afternoon. the fed speak starts to pick up tomorrow morning on friday. bank earnings season really kicking off. jp morgan, bank of america and a

whole host of others through the week. tom: jp morgan capturing profit dollars in banking. they will slide through this on how much they are making. what's good to be interesting about this is with blackrock we have not addressed yet what is the right size to cost efficiencies. that's going to be i'm not sure what they know what they're going to say on wednesday. >> 3% of global workforce 600 employees. absolutely nailed it. this is what you were looking for now. will we see more of that from the other players. some of the big shifts they are starting to see an asset management. i'm wondering if you see it elsewhere. >> asset management may be as a gossip idea esg and that struggle. this is not some annual layoff at john deere or caterpillar. they did a layoff 12 months ago.

they had layoffs somewhere. the answer, of 3%. it adds up to a real number. jonathan: we see our industry changing faster than at any time since the founding of blackrock. that's quite a statement off the back of that decision. >> where are boeing aircraft are made. i believe it's washington where they were tuned into the college football game here a while back. an expert on that is the senior equity research analyst at jefferies who joins us this morning. >> there are three production lines. the third one just opened up so if you think about it each one of those churns out 15 to 17 per month. the fourth one will open next year in everett about an hour and a half away from renton. >> i don't want you to talk

about the leverage finance jp morgan and your award-winning work. forget about it. our listeners and viewers want to know where is the problem and is it easy to fix. is it in washington or is it the fuselage riveters in kansas. >> the problem is the pandemic deteriorated the aerospace workforce. the problem is not only at the boeing factory but the small tier three they are seeing strain on their workforce. the problem has been focused over the last year in spirit in wichita with three incidents on the max or the 87 involving quality issues. there's been management changes to address those quality issues. i think that's the focus item given that we've seen small improvements. >> this sounds shocking. i would love your response to

this, are we suggesting things are safe but not as safe as they were before the pandemic in this industry. >> i think the industry is having a tough time getting back up to post-pandemic levels and we are manufacturing in september only manufacturing in the teens among these maxes. so we essentially in december deliveries half of that was out of inventory. half of that was actual production so we doubled output in three months. we were trying to double output. there's a strain giving air travel is back to 2019 levels to get this aircraft production back. it was very constrained. >> demand that boeing is not the problem it is deliveries. we had mike o'leary sit in your seat at the end of last year complaining about the delays to the to 7 -- the 737 max. how close are we to further delays and ultimately canceled orders. >> i'm sure he was more

entertaining than me. >> he's more entertaining than i am. don't worry about it. >> we've seen delivery slope. we delivered about 1000 aircraft in 22. so we've seen that happen already. we are knocking to see cancellations. seeing the orders stretch out. everyone wants to get in line. even ryanair who's been the most outspoken has talked about wanting that aircraft sooner and pricing being better for them on some of the ryanair aircraft because they want the aircraft sooner. >> playing this low, is this a huge strategic opportunity in the united states of america for sales at airbus. >> i think the opportunity was from 2019 to 23 when the max was essentially grounded not delivering to china.

airbus had their opportunity. what we see is boeing produces 50 maxes a month and airbus to 75. so they already have that market share. airbus has its own issues. the airbus aircraft has two options. the raytheon option. we know the gtf has a contaminated powder in it so they are basically grounding 40% of the gtf engines in the first half of this year to do inspections on them. airbus is not sure of its issues as well. >> some of this is the complexity of the engineering across aviation. i get the covert idea. i think that's brilliant. are we had a point where these things are becoming too complex? >> not enough fuel efficiency. not enough energy efficiency. two pilots to fly the desk fly the pain. what we've seen in the aircraft

industry is no new models. this is the 20 20's are just an upgrade of the existing models. >> are they still trying to do one pilot plane? >> i think that's off the books for now. the focus has been on the engine. the fuel efficiency and what we get in the timeframe and how that aircraft takes us over the next two to three decades. >> the sitting of the jet back and forth on the wing was due to fuel efficiency. should we jettison fuel efficiency is an engineering mandate. >> that's what we are aiming for. not only in production but the efficiency that they are gaining. not calling them out only with the raytheon issues. not only the contaminated powder. they need to do upgrades to get them up to par. >> she is confidence building. >> this is a difficult one. how do you expect the regulator to respond to this.

how do authority step in. >> you started off very stark contrast with dave calhoun yesterday. ntsb is solely focused on the accident. we will know what really happened. the faa said grounding 12 hours in. i think they are taking a stark stance. boeing has this directive out and i think we can see the aircraft back in the air by the end of next week. jonathan: that quickly? >> it's at 48 hours to inspect the aircraft. you think about the pr element of it. >> when you hear from the regulator they have to start out broad. actually have all ocean -- options open. do you get the sense they've narrowed this investigation down next week? >> the ntsb will take a year to come to a conclusion on what happened and what the cause was paid the faa seems confident it came out so quickly.

>> this amazing company when it started. 21 billion market cap. 51 times pe. when i first started covering the stock, of the market cap was $2 billion. they are a generic aircraft parts manufacturer and they supply the aftermarket. the more we don't get new aircraft deliveries the more they benefit because the old planes get serviced. >> sort of long boeing but we didn't. good to hear from you. just fantastic. sheila of jeffries on the situations super difficult. that address was pretty powerful yesterday. really taking on how serious this could have been. >> this is what surveillance is about. talking to adults. >> we will talk to principal

asset management on the program looking for volatility in the front half of this year and a rally in the second half. this is bloomberg. ♪ how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what do you think, fever monster? what about zocdoc? zocdoc? dr. castell has a great bedside manner. so many options. but dr. xichun will take your sketchy insurance.

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>> i am still very bullish for 2024 but i think it will be different to the rallies we saw last year. >> there are some structural changes in the market. >> i think at the economic downturn that the biggest risk of it's priced in the market. >> markets are back to this good news on the economic front. which is causing yields to back up. bad news on the equity front. >> right now it's not one of

those times. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> live from new york city this morning. good morning for our audience worldwide. alongside tom keene i am jonathan ferro. your equity market on the s&p 500 totally unchanged. the drama safe for yesterday afternoon after the close let's pull a bitcoin and take another look at that drama. tite at one point it felt like on twitter the sec had granted approval of spot bitcoin etf's and then we find out it's all a hoax. >> we stagger into wednesday and i guess we are exposed to take in today. >> possibly who knows. eric who is truly an etf exported bloomberg's industry-leading is the statement we can make. he says there's this raging debate about how much cash is

going to go into this. he is like a modest amount, 15 or 20 and others are saying 100 billion. no one really knows the money that's going to go into this. >> it won't take me long because we don't know much at all from the sec they said the tweet was an unauthorized tweet. not due to any issues with its -- saying the account did not have two factor authentication enabled. plenty of embarrassment to share but particularly for the sec. tom: interesting to see between the chairman and those around him on the committee. there's a lot of republicans at the sec saying let's go free enterprise and a few other people saying maybe not. that's the crux of the debate and the unknown unknown. >> close to 46 k this morning. we can get back to business here on wall street going into

tomorrow you start to get the economic data and the earnings. >> a data deluge. i can't spell it i can say it. it will be a wall of data and to your point the economic angle on wall street are more focused on what we see in global wall street because pros are telling the company by company we are lowballing everything. >> let's get to the scores. equity futures totally unchanged. futures going nowhere. yields coming in a basis point or two. in and around 4% for the last few sessions. just some stability going into the data tomorrow morning. in and around that currency paying positive by 0.14%.

here's the day ahead. fed speak john williams 315 this afternoon. the new york fed president coming up later on today and then on to tomorrow michael mckee at 11:30. you will hear from kashkari on friday. >> love this mix here. all are different fed president said governors. an aerospace engineer. he's got a much more corporate fuse. his private service, loretta mester is a mathematician and john williams his original economic literature about guesstimating where that start is prayed >> particularly in anticipation of data. what else can they really say. cpi coming up tomorrow morning. we know from williams what he had to say after the news conference, what was that message. we are not really talking about rate cuts at the federal

reserve. >> i would go back to his belief through now where he's looking for us to return to a more quiet generalization to percent level and there's some huge pushback whether it's the former vice chairman suggesting a higher level of 2% and others including folks. i put it out last night but it's a blistering pre-davos note. >> basically saying we will set higher interest rates. jackson hole essay on debt and ken says they got it wrong. we are going to see a higher rate regime. >> last week with the first program of the year the three of us were sitting around saying we are hitting the ground running on the offer earnings as well. on friday you get earnings from j.p. morgan bank of america, wells fargo all reporting. that's the big event after the data on thursday it's onto

earnings. >> citigroup with a great long essay on mike mayo who is a good friend of the show. he is up on the table pounding by jane fraser. by citigroup. if you are not focused on this you want to see some fireworks consider mike mayo with a double on beleaguered citigroup out x number of years. >> let's catch up with the chief global strategist. joining us right now. great to catch up. a two-part story for you. first half volatility second-half rally. it reminds me of some of the outlooks i got last year for 2023. what is it where you think that story could take place? >> i think if you think about where we were at the end of last year where you have a price of perfection. you couldn't get better news the fed would start cutting early

you would have a soft landing etc.. i'm not saying that's not all going to come true but at the beginning of this year you are already seeing the market pushback on some of those original expectations. you are seeing economic resilience. i struggle to see what is going to be the catalyst to drive another leg up in the near term. we need to see a pullback as the market starts to question their rate expectations and then as you get towards the middle of the year and you get closer to the actual rate cut today you see a slowdown but it does not come down to damaging. that to me is that green signal for the rally. tom: dovetail nominal gdp that combination of real gdp plus the inflation with the imf's call of a beleaguered slow global economy out for years to 2028. where are we in that continuum as we go into 2024.

is there an analyst spirit within gdp or will it drift away. >> we are anticipating a global growth slowdown. the u.s., europe, china. it's not exciting but you have a couple of bright spots. we are not anticipating a very prolonged economic weakness so i think this is a fairly decent nominal growth environment. along with that comes the idea we don't see inflation coming back down below 2% like you saw in previous years. for a real bridge i know you are focused on it's a slightly more challenging environment. investors need to start taking that into consideration as its starting to position. >> what does the real rate do on the 10 year inflation-adjusted rate in the united states. >> we are expecting to come down slightly but not too much. if i give you an idea we are expecting the fed to go three

times 25 basis points each time. we are expecting inflation to come down around 2.4 percent level so it's not too far from where we are today. that is a little bit quite restrictive. so you are not in a fantastic environment for risk assets but there's a lot of cyclical factors we can take into consideration. you are looking at a higher cost we've had in the last decade or so. so you need to be screening your stocks a little bit closer. you need to be thinking more about bonds as well. in terms of inflationary scenario. where inflation doesn't come all the way back down to what it accustomed to before. they don't perform as well as would've expected. >> i will share with you what we heard from laurie of rbc overnight. a great indiscretion read. with -- we are wary of being over -- given the tendency of

the sector to outperform an interest rates are falling. there are two sectors leading the pack to close out last year. where are you on the format and for that matter where are you on the latter. seema: i'm not too negative. i don't think there is significant as may be a lot of people including myself there's a lot going for consumers at the moment. as long as the labor market is holding up as strong as it is, on the tech side i still have solid expectations for tech. i wonder if the expectations for the markets will be fulfilled. wanted to go negative or underweight technology there are other parts of the market which are more interesting in 2024 if you can see fed cuts and soft landings. >> what's the big call for you. where do banks fit in given earnings on friday.

>> i think as you've seen in a lot of parts of the market headwinds are the best of the year but as you go through the second, banks can do well. the other part which should be gaining interest there will be a bit more in the first quarter but small caps i think evaluations are trying to typically when you get a fed cutting cycle as a company you want to return to all the solid growth. that is typically a good cut for small caps. when you're looking at the large and small cap it gets very attractive. investors may be edging into those positions. >> if yields come down is the flow of money out of money market funds assumed linear or is it all coming in one great surge? seema: it's really difficult to say in terms of how the investor sentiment will go. one those money market do have

the credit for a strong rally. one some of the questions investors have hanging up so there's questions including when is it reducing interest rates and the second is will there be an economic slowdown and if there is, how devastating will it be. i think all of those questions will be answered in a positive tilt in that there is a slowdown but it is not too devastating. once you have some of these questions answered, money market funds will move towards those risk assets which is one of the reasons investors should be positioning for a stronger second half. jonathan: thank you, good to hear from you. if you are just joining us welcome to the program. almost totally unchanged. positive by 0.04%. yields are lower by a single basis point. there is a ton to talk about. cpi data tomorrow morning.

the earnings as well talked about numbers from jp morgan, bank of america and citi. a lot to talk about. we will do that in the next hour. two conversation stand out for us. talking about bitcoin. and the latest down in washington dc as nikki haley and ron desantis face-off and you have some counter programming on fox news. >> it's the silly season. eric, bloomberg intelligence. blackrock made break the first day flow record with a possible 2 billion asset injection on the first day of trading. bitcoin etf. >> given the move we've seen already. >> as a complete amateur on bitcoin, everyone knows how i feel about this. >> kelly joins us about 30

minutes from now. tons to discuss around the table. annmarie hordern to break down what's been going on in the presidential race for 2024 and the mystery around the defense secretary is a mystery no more. >> the defense secretary is sick , he is ill and that's what happens. i'm really interested about the iowa caucus. jonathan: annmarie hordern from new york city this morning equity futures slightly positive , good morning. ♪ hello, brent. hi? if you had to choose, would you watch paint dry or compare benefits plans? compare benefits every time. come on, you know how complicated benefits can be. well, i run payroll with gusto.

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>> we continue to stand with israel ensuring that october 7 can never happen again. we believe the submission against israel to the international court of justice distracts the world from these important efforts and moreover, of the charge of genocide is meritless. >> u.s. secretary of state antony blinken speaking after meeting with benjamin netanyahu and other top officials. continuing his trip with a visit to the west bank later on today. welcome to the program. the scores look like this on the s&p. totally unchanged.

yields are lower by a few basis points. everything else is really loud in the middle east and crude is quiet. positive .2%. tom: jeff currie showing up, i saw on bloomberg tv as well. i guess there is a global price and global distribution. the answer is supplies come on with a vengeance. where would the price be without the united states. jonathan: dread to think. tom: on the euro, i'm going to go with what somebody said the other day. a huge opportunity to reframe over the next 10 days her view on what they do with disinflation in a really beleaguered germany. >> the inflation story has

improved. pretty brutal compared to what we've experienced in america. tom: full coverage of that next week as well. right now joining us our bloomberg washington correspondent who has been southeast of des moines to hayes vail, iowa. it's romantic as all get out. it's a population decline of 20% in one sense. bernard balin the historian said they have the west -- and a gun store surrounded by firearms. that's where this process starts for republicans. >> it starts in these caucuses which is more of an experience rather than a primary vote where there -- where you stop by and cast your ballot and leave.

things could change in the room as these discussions are taking place. this is why you heard from former president who is leading by real clear politics a 36 point margin in iowa he wants to win in a big way and she's coming out saying -- when he speaking to iowa voters at these rallies it's not enough you support me you all have to go out to these caucuses to make a statement. tom: for our international audience, in iowa is there a sense of intimidation within the caucus where there is a zeitgeist and let's presume it's for the former president. but the answer is and how dare you vote for biden or haley. it's not just a vote is it? annmarie: that's what we are talking about. it's an experience, a debate. things can change in the room. tom: do they do this in the

united kingdom? annmarie: there's no gun shops in the united kingdom. the venue for one would be very different. jonathan: let's talk about the debate later on this evening 9:00 p.m. eastern time. governor desantis going on against nikki haley one by one. counter programming on fox news, the former president donald trump. annmarie: it's going to be a big test of how far they will go in attacking trump who's deciding to skip this debate. he has skipped all of them and he is going on fox news where a lot of republicans traditionally watch and making his final pitch for these iowa caucus-goers. i want to see how much they are willing to go against the former president and against each other. nikki haley has shined in these debates. he -- chris christie is not going to be there to go to on

against trump trade for me it looks like this is make or break for their campaign. haley recently had a fumble and ron desantis called it a word salad. can she move past that in the debate. he's put all his eggs in iowa. all his personnel. jonathan: there was some reporting if things do not go well in iowa he drops out. what we heard from the national campaign. annmarie: they are knocking to say they will drop out now. it's full steam ahead for iowa. what does he do after iowa? his numbers do not look great in new hampshire. nikki haley is dominating in new hampshire in terms of everyone besides trump. chris christie is doing quite well in new hampshire as well. you could see a moment if ron desantis wants to pull out and chris christie wants to pull out she is able to win new hampshire. but at the moment trump is still

dominating the field. jonathan: let's talk about international issues. we talked about what happened and did not happen with the defense secretary. it's important with what's happening on the ground in the middle east across the region. the rebels launching one of the most complex attacks today and u.s. forces and allies have been shooting down 18 drones in a barrage. just how tense are they in the red sea? annmarie: it is intense. you are seeing a lot of ships not going through the red sea. this will trickle down to consumers. things are incredibly intense in the red sea. we have seen the administration hit back. there's interceptions but we have not seen them go after houthis in yemen and that could be the next step. tom: the next step here assumes policy from the united states. it is our policy postponed or

paused because of the uproar the pentagon? is all your reporting the things are normal and that debate in communication? annmarie: absolutely things continue. it is a machine but there is a lot of concern about the communication between the pentagon and the white house given the absence of lloyd austin. yesterday when the world found out lloyd austin's elective procedure which means a patient decided to undergo this procedure. elective procedure has this nuance that potentially this is not so serious. we found out yesterday this is serious. at the same time the same time the president found out so did the world. this is a big problem. jonathan: this communication breakdown is not new. just give us an idea of what's happening in the administration and why there continues to be a

breakdown between the white house and departments like the state department, the pentagon. annmarie: this administration said we will be transparent, we are the adult in the room and go back to process and procedure. what we've seen from the fall of kabul on is a struggle with interagency. they are insular in the white house. when you have individuals who should be the transportation highway information. it does seem like that seems where things seem to break down. jonathan: just a massive breakdown. annmarie hordern, breaking down the situation in washington. >> across the sea to shining sea is the cliche goes. i'm fascinated by the path from iowa to new hampshire to the many states. we talk about hayes vail iowa

east of des moines. 41 is the population. a house there for sale it's yours for $179,000. that's the difference in america. annmarie and our team looking at that massive polarity in real estate. jonathan: trying to get me to move since i've moved here. what tk has been pushing was taking it back to london. i'm allowed just outside of manhattan. tom: you and matt miller can have a two dollar breakfast on saturdays. annmarie: at least you get more space. if we look at real estate in manhattan for that price. ♪

jonathan: live from new york city s&p 500 almost totally unchanged. we are positive by .07%.

mastec up .19%. tom: the vix at 12.85. it is a bull market fixed. there is no other way to put it. the drawdown in the dow jones industrial average is .5%. jonathan: i appreciate the update. think how worse it would be if the 10 year was still at five, two year five point 26. we are back down to 3.98. we are down on the 10 year to 4.335. tom: the standard deviation, the variance of forecasting he has never seen.

and where living it day today. jonathan: the forecast for the s&p, there is a thousand point spread. let's finish on foreign exchange on the euro which is sleepy. the euro against the dollar positive by .17. tom: i said to anne-marie that this surveillance we go to zurich before you go to davos and get that nice $300 lunch. jonathan: can you imagine how much the burger king is can the cost of zurich? tom: it's going to be 20 swiss francs. jonathan: absolutely ridiculous. tom: you walk into the

hermes is $30 more than it is here. it's a weird math in davos. jonathan: let's get to the top stories who the rebels are launching one of their worst attack shooting down drones and missiles. confirming no injuries or damage done but many shipping companies have rerouted around south africa. tom: they pull back the cape of good hope. it's what is important here, we

have to find some sort of offense besides randomly shooting down 18 drones and what is urgent with the illness of the secretary of defense, what kind of offense should we have? jonathan: any updates on that we will bring them to you. the ceo dave calhoun speaking to the public concerning the safety of the 7:37. >> i can imagine what would've happened to that person who was supposed to be in that seat. i have kids and grandkids and so do you. this stuff matters. jonathan: this was a close call. they are ordering inspections

after loose bolts during inspections. there is no current timetable for them to be put back in service. they say they could be back in the air as soon as next week. tom: sheila is the engineer geek. it was about how do you go through the process of determining where we are before you figure out where we are going to be in the next few months and the key thing she says it will take 10 years to figure out. jonathan: spirit era, let's turn to financial services. you've heard larry fink is cutting 3% of staff citing rapid

changes in asset management. we see our industry changing faster than at any time since the founding of blackrock. etf's are becoming the preference for active management strategies. you wonder how much more of this we will see in the months to come. tom: and it just doesn't stop. shout out to matt cory who said we need to cover etf years ago. forget about the bitcoin, it's the etf. bond etf's are just as important as equity etf. that goes for blackrock. maybe i'm not up to speed, we don't know the quality of the divisions that make up that 500, 600. jonathan: whenever we talk

about ishares i spare a thought for bob diamond and wonder what could in if he were forced to sell it? tom: i totally agree. we didn't even know what it etf was we had no idea what it was and bob diamond and his people said 4, 5, 6 coins. jonathan: we will have the latest on the s ec and bitcoin. equity futures positive by not even .1%. from barclays, what is the

forecasting error right now. the differences of opinion are immense do you see that at the desk at barclays? >> there continues to be far too much confidence of the smart fed cut in the face of financial conditions that have eased in 10 year treasuries back to where we were in early august. it's hard to draw too many conclusions from a single data point. they have introduced sobering effects on the market. the participation rate, wage data, and might show the economy re-accelerating over the next few months. tom: unfair question, what is the issue one's calendar look like. is now the time cash related

tech puts out more? meghan: similar to the floodgates that opened up overnight, they have seen 83 billion new issuance over the last six days. i think across broader markets, ig has been the place we have seen an ability to quickly regain our footing from the indigestion we saw the start of the year and it is become a silver lining. we have seen investors find opportunities to put cash balances to work. we are running largely ahead of 2023 volumes and on track to exceed on 150 billion for the month of january. that would be the most active issuances may of last year. jonathan: can we get into the character of the barware, is

there a shorter duration buyer, what do you see more of? meghan: what's a bit of a departure from what we saw during the two month rally is a shift too long and our performance. 10-year or longer are garnering significantly stronger demand than the belly of the curve which outperforms to the end of the year. we saw that play out with the t-mobile transaction. their 30 year was seven times over prescribed and double the demand of the five-year. it's creating opportunities for barrooms. what success rating these is the supply we have seen so far. that is down 40% year-over-year. most borrowers are be elected to

lock in funds with elevated borrowing cost even if they acknowledge that it benefits the transaction. the mix has been a slow where financial calendar. you usually see two thirds of january that we will see a tight turn with earnings this friday. we're expecting upward to 20 billion of supply from that subset of borrowers and i think the regionals will follow behind was supply expectations as they prepare for regulatory debt requirements. jonathan: supply has been met with demand. can you give us an idea where the demand is coming from? where are they deploying cash in these markets? meghan: it's a yield driven bid. it was fascinating to me if you think about implications for

cpi, we hosted a roundtable and the majority of the investors, hedge funds, asset managers, insurance companies. they say yields matter more than spreads. i think it is fair to see that data dependency will be key. tom: quickly, i am asking for a friend, are you buying the bitcoin etf? meghan: i will play the fence. jonathan: absolutely fantastic to start the week with meghan from barclays. tom: there is a point where you go, this is hard.

this bond stuff, it's hard. it's a totally different tone between equity and bond part of a. you know she read to boise cover to cover. she knows the operational procedure. there are issuance issues where you have to work the paper to get it done. jonathan: if you are just joining us welcome to the program. your s&p 500 almost totally unchanged up by 0.01%. sometimes you need mornings like this. tom: we will get the daily news as we said earlier. we are distracted by this bitcoin, 45,100, cratered.

it was up 150% last year. jonathan: whether we get these spot bitcoin etf's and you have procedures at the sec and we heard about one of these issues where the did not have authentication in the account was compromised. tom: embarrassing. in the crypto millieu, how did you learn about two factor authentication? i was hacked in turkey. jonathan: what if they do? tom: we take it for granted what people do up on the 14th floor, they deliver the goods. jonathan: the hack of the sec's

account ahead of a major decision on bitcoin spot etf's. from new york, this is bloomberg. you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

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tom: is bitcoin and investable asset? >> i think it is. we have a theory it etf coming, the fed cutting interest rates. it will make it easier for companies to buy. i could go on and on. jonathan: for the best part of 15 minutes we thought the sec had given up for an etf spot bitcoin and then we found out they had been compromised.

it was a any breach of their systems. the account did not have two factor authentication. we are hearing that from x and the sec. tom: what a distraction for what i guess would've been a great moment for alternative investments and i guess we try to get beyond that this morning. they've already published 2 billion to go into blackrock. i'm getting a lift off feel from eric. jonathan: there is the sec and how they will announce decisions like this. and then acts as a platform for delivering news and how seriously people will take the platform. tom: the chairman of the securities exchange commission is less than enthused bio

lab. we will talk about the operative moment at 7:48 a.m. on this historic wednesday. all crypto all the time. she has taught me so much because she knows it's a bunch of malarkey. now it goes from malarkey to and investable asset? katie: if you really wanted crypto exposure, you are right in saying this is a watershed moment for crypto and etf. this has been attempted in some form since 2013, a long time coming. tom: how does the actual money transact? do they need money to go when or do they have a pool of money

when alix steel says is official, the money is there right now? katie: the way a typical lunch would work as someone like blackrock would precede the fun. tom: precede? jonathan: they put money in before the launch to make it look a little better so the assets that you see on friday might not be all organic. what will be interesting to watch as the trade volume. it's a much better measure of how much interest there is in these funds. jonathan: why has the sec dragged its feet on this decision? katie: repeatedly they have said this crypto industry is open to fraud, manipulation. the irony is it was the twitter account hacked.

they allowed the future etf's to be launched took the legs out of their argument and that was the basis of grayscale suing the sec. they wanted to convert their trust into a spot etf. they won that lawsuit and that was one of the important events that put today emotion. jonathan: isn't the assumption we would get the nod at some point in the future? what changes if we do? i've seen security bitcoin run out but what changes? are there people who could not buy it before that can because it is a spot etf? katie: thus the debate right now. if you go back to the futures etf launch, that was the ultimate sell the news event. bitcoin moved up to 79,000 a coin. and after the launch we have been anywhere close to that.

a lot of critics are saying that this will be the same moment and advocates say this will turn on the well channels. tom: in the depths of the depression the government decided to set up the sec so we could buy anaconda copper and douglas aircraft. there would be accounting and we would know what's going on. is there any improvement in accounting for bitcoin? it's any change in the process of how we observe the underlying etf? katie: one of the things it did change when he think of the applications is that there are surveillance sharing agreements between the underlying exchange, coinbase, and the sec.

they will have more insight here. what started this enthusiasm is blackrock filing in june for a spot etf which took people by surprise. tom: let's say a lot of money comes in, we get a level of overdoing it. does that mean the electric grid changes because someone has to manufacture more of this in who cares about the thermodynamics of bitcoin? katie: i would not go that far about what this means for supply. tom: it does. katie: he want to get concerned about the record-keeping here. tom: but does it improve? does the record-keeping of the underlying going to be improved with these etf's? katie: theoretically it would be

with those agreements. the worry of heard from critics is that what if you lose your wallet address or these big issuers loses their digital while address. digital wallet address? those are some of the behind-the-scenes worries. jonathan: katie greifeld of bloomberg. there is so much to deal with on this issue. tom: is tom brady cannick endorsing etf? jonathan: i think his fingers have been burned on that. there is a feeling i think, a snobbery on wall street that the adults are coming into the room and all the fraud you've seen over the past few years with spf , sam bankman-fried that that's

all going they change with blackrock. katie: when you think of the prominence of cryptocurrency getting away from the government , now it feels like the hopes and dreams are going to have physically backed bitcoin. jonathan: it is a real shift, culturally from what it was. tom: you know how i feel about it. i will say this, i'm watching what gary gensler does. he has made it clear how he feels. jonathan: will it happen this afternoon? katie: the idea is that they go effective after the market today. we could see training tomorrow. jonathan: so look to the sec

website. coming up on this program, michael purves breaking down what's happening in this market. s&p futures totally unchanged. the week begins this afternoon with the new york fed president speaking in the data tomorrow morning. tom: i will go with the tom williams speech could have some real oomph to it. with all the back-and-forth and the massive standard deviation forecast i have the fix a 12.86. this is a bid under the market. jonathan: there has been a bit under the market for how many months now? since october? maybe the first half is volatility in the second half as

a rally. that sounds so similar to the end of 2022 that it would be a dip in red. and then what did we do? totally ripped and tech never look back. s&p totally unchanged with michael purves coming up. from new york, good morning. ♪ fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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>> the fed policy is becoming more clear. >> inflation is monitoring and i think it's important for the fed to adjust. >> we have to admit we probably finish the first wave of inflation. >> we think we go to a low growth, low inflation environment. this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. into a deluge of data, the economics of inflation. the earnings that hide the profits of the big banks. the elite meet and greet in

davos next tuesday, there will be a lot of discussions wrapped around it. jonathan: the u.s. economy, the start with the conflicting data. i so manufacturing negative for the past 12 months. going all the way back to october 2022. then jobless claims, or payroll with confidence numbers. small business, consumer, all of this conflicting stuff. that makes 2024 difficult. tom: we have a spectacular guest, michael purves really focused on nominal gdp and the good things of goldilocks. are we gonna get goldilocks from james dimon? i'm guessing it's really not all that bad. jonathan: it's been great for

the stock of jp morgan relative to everyone else. this turned around after late october with the peak in the two year and. we can talk about that, how dependent are these bank stocks in the year ahead? tom: they have to get lower cost to consumers and you know what no one is talking about the yellen speech, the qt and the banking dynamic around jp morgan and bank of america, all of the other banks, commercial real estate and the challenges of loans. jonathan: what comes first, rate cuts are qt? maybe that begins in the next couple of months. liking that your can the wind down with one before starting the other.

they wanted to announce that they were winding down qt before rising rates. tom: as we get the idea of a bitcoin, 3:00 p.m. john williams begins the economic debate. his speech is probably more eliminating than janet yellen. jonathan: chairman poppel saying maybe this is the time to talk about interest rate cuts and then we heard from john williams who said, were not talking about that right now. i wonder what we hear from him this afternoon. tom: seema shah said real rate stay where they are in push that against the shock of what we

heard from j.p. morgan seeing a substantial decrease in forecasting. jonathan: yields are lower by two basis points. in the fx market things of looks snoozy. the euro is stronger 1.0944. the data is anything but strong in europe. tom: it is far too cut and chiseled to be one of the old guard. michael purves, and i put him in the group with dr. yedeni. they

have been here before. thank you for joining us. what is your advice to the kids buffeted by social media and finance where you were just saying, it's attractive out there. get on board. michael: we just came out of a fantastic rally, of 24% last year. we are going to have some indigestion. one statistics that's interesting is 14% on 24% came from november and december. we have not had a contribution messiahs that. when you are looking at this fidgety price action which is not typical of early or mid january, you have to put that in the context of nine unbroken weeks in a row. we have a dual goldilocks condition.

a dovish pivot from the fed. we stopped talking about rate hikes after the most violent hiking cycle ever and we are now talking about how many cuts we get. at the same time, we have main street goldilocks. we have a consumer who was in pretty good shape. we will find out tomorrow morning but with food prices and so forth. it's the concurrence of those goldilocks conditions. tom: you do on nominal gdp analysis, how does that impact earnings season? michael: that comes down to your gdp call.

it's it to .2 right now. i think inflation goes slower, but is a twisted smile. can you paint a picture of 4.5, 5% nominal gdp this year? absolutely. the thing you have to keep in mind and this gets back to the rotation discussion, it is a downshift from 2023 in the year before that. they are fighting a tide there are so unconstructive on risk appetite but when you look at the downshift, they will have to do well at the margin level and be able to navigate this lower inflation. jonathan: we've talked about

the concentration of the s&p 500 across the seven and meda has been phenomenal. michael: that's one of the things we have to step back and think about, there was massive pe inflation in the first half of the year. but those magnificent seven grew into the earnings growth. if you look at the rally last year, half of that was earnings with pe expansion was in the cyclical sector. that rally was about 12% on the year almost entirely pe expansion. the earnings did not perform encyclicals. you're asking the market to go rah rah cyclicals right now and where facing note lower nominal growth picture.

i think the magnificent seven is 20% year over year earnings growth. let's give that a haircut. think about price to growth earnings. jonathan: other people would say is a high bar but do i want people way or market s&p exposure. do i want to strip out the muscle out a big tech? michael: follow earnings growth. will it be not as good this year as last year? sure. on a probability basis you are taking less academic risk.

if cyclicals were dirt cheap that's a different story. tom: cfa level four, what is synthetic earnings growth? michael: share buybacks. if yields come down they will issue more debt? tom: what is your response to clients when you talk about this? you sound like a fossil he would never buy bitcoin. michael: i'm a pretty old fossil he was never bought bitcoin. if you wanted all currency, by

gold. but you're facing a slow walk back from rate cuts. i think the gold breakout is overweighted. jonathan: the authorization of a spot bitcoin etf doesn't change much for you? michael: no, it does not. at the end of the day, it is delivered play on the nasdaq. jonathan: do you feel that is a bit of a difference between what they do for their clients of what they do personally. there have been people doubting bitcoin for years. will they start closing the gap? michael: some institution will get their arms around bitcoin.

he looks more legitimate here. a lot of institutional investors stumble with use case. what does it do for your portfolio? tom: bill cohen was blistering over the weekend. michael: if you have to go to committee and say this will be a diversifying asset, it was in a diversifying asset. jonathan: michael purves, this was great. if you're just joining us, welcome to the program. the s&p unchanged up point 03%. adult or just a touch weaker against the euro. coming up it 8:30, we get cpi

tomorrow morning but we will catch up with kathy bostjancic and then cpi information tomorrow. tom: it will tell us about the american consumer. it still 70% of the american economy. there is a mystery about what we do with auto sales? what is a used car inflation going to be? grocery stores versus restaurants? tom: i think it's the mood of the consumer after the past three years. the inflation in food in the grocery store is not returning to pre-2021 prices.

jonathan: are you rationing your take out? i don't believe that. from new york, good morning. ♪ llucinating? what do you think, fever monster? what about zocdoc? zocdoc? dr. castell has a great bedside manner. so many options. but dr. xichun will take your sketchy insurance. xi-chun! xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! thanks, bro! you've got more options than you know. book now. was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com

>> work to go back and look at what we could've done better to include on the public affairs side and making sure we are acknowledging and asking those hard questions about ensuring that the public has a timely and

accurate understanding of the secretary status. jonathan: we didn't have that over the last week. addressing secretaries lloyd austin sudden hospitalization. it was due to complications from surgery for prostate cancer. let's just turn to the price action, equityzen changed up .03%. the yield slower at 3.986. bitcoin at 45,000. tom: john williams this afternoon make it us a few choice headlines. watch for that team coverage. jonathan: 8:30 for ppi.

tom: swiss francs have just not broken through. jane foley was brilliant yesterday afternoon, no one is talking about this. was just one indicator. crazy stuff like hungarian mortgages. it's just a general litmus test of where we are going. you slide through zurich on a grand high. jonathan: when they rip the floor way you saw this aggressive move into the swiss francs, where below those levels. that is real swiss francs that the central bank was fighting against for years.

and now, here it is. tom: you and lisa are going to davos, i would suggest the broader debate is whether europe with the germanic decline that we see, you wonder if it will be davos/europe versus the usual asia, china. jonathan: you mention europe let's talk about it. is the breakdown of the german model, you get security from the united states, energy from russia. so much of that stuff is been threatened or broken down completely. the united states role in international security is a question again. who might be in the white house at the end of the year? the liberal elite gathering in

davos, there will be real excitement in europe about what comes out of the united states at the end of this year. tom: you will see that next week in davos, right now there is something different in america about one hospital. walter reed hospital, a hospital of joy is sadness. i think of the spirit of ronald and nancy reagan. the message this week has been a jumble. to get a perspective on the bet reed of knowledge is michael sheppard in washington. what are people talking about? all of the news that jonathan ferro here, what is the distinctive point or study this wednesday morning? michael: people are still talking about what happened to lloyd austin and why did it take

so long for the defense department to be more forthcoming about what had been following him? we all learned that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer undergone surgery two days before christmas. president joe biden only learned of that yesterday. this began emerging on friday when we typically see agencies putting out bad news in the news from the pentagon breeds more questions than answers about how long he had been in the hospital . tom: is it unprecedented? jonathan: for the defense department, this is highly unusual. lloyd austin is a private person . he is known for keeping his public image very guarded. at the same time, and his role as the top civilian leaving the military, it is a different duty

of care to the public in chain of command in terms of being forthcoming about this. that has troubled white house officials and members of congress. we have seen republicans calling for him to resign over this. we don't think joe biden would accept his resignation. tom: this is driving me nuts. he is giving us the washington line. he has prostate cancer and the debate changed. i would suggest erotically changed with the announcement of prostate cancer. jonathan: when it comes to peer protocols, not much is change. we are talking about a delicate time for the united states and national security. given the news we have heard that who the rebels of lost a

complex attack in the red sea begs the question, who is running the government? michael: through the situation the white house and defense department insisted there is no change to u.s. readiness because of lloyd austin's absence from the defense department. they insist he's been able to carry out the duties he has needed to while being in walter reed. he has been taking calls. it is hard for him to travel and do other parts of his job. he has delegated that to his number two, kathleen hicks. it raises questions about he was in charge. typically he goes through his national security advisor when dealing with austin so it's for him not to be speaking with austin every day.

if you were going to be absent you would think the defense chief would alert the president, i meant to be out for a few days and here is why and who will be taking over in the white house has insisted on having that notification from the dod and the rest of his cabinet. jonathan: later on this evening, you can watch it ron desantis and nikki haley. what are you focused on later tonight? michael: for me, it will be a split screen moment. we have to watch the candidates carefully. for desantis and nikki haley tonight is their last chance to take each other on and make the argument to voters that they are a better alternative to donald trump who was sleeping in iowa by 30 points or more depending on the poles. jonathan: michael sheppard,

appreciate the update. split screen this evening. tom: were not capable of dealing with that. jonathan: you watch one and have the tv up on the other. we have six more months of this habit we? tom: it's starting with the iowa caucus and the new hampshire primary. i will say percolating here within finance is the importance of super tuesday. i think it is still super. jonathan: it would be nice of someone like ron desantis or nikki haley made it that far. tom: i think the eyes are on ron desantis. and chris christie. jonathan: coming up about 24

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jonathan: 60 minutes and 22 seconds away. we go right through all the boards. the nasdaq up by 0.07%. let's get to the two year, the 10 year, the 30 year. 398.48. not even 4% this morning. i think the biggest move that

you have had on the two year is the one you have on the screen right now. yesterday on the two year we were down about one basis point. on monday not even and on friday, unchanged. tom: i would really watch the yield space and i watched it before the seminar yesterday. there was a 75% recovery on the basis -- i do not know how long it lasted. we furthered that yesterday with the vix zero point 88. we are point -- focused on bank of america, j.p. morgan because that is what we do with the bloomberg terminal. i am sorry. january 24 which i believe is a wednesday, there is a small company that has an acquaintance with the cloud. maybe microsoft is more important this time around than j.p. morgan. jonathan: the data is so

impressive. tom: remember openai? he really handled that pretty well. jonathan: transforming the company from what it was. it is just amazing. tom: i am reading his bio right now. i really suggest it, folks. jonathan: foreign exchange. tom: let's get to it. jonathan: let's start this again. not much data this morning. it picks up tomorrow morning with cpi 24 hours away. a ton of fed speak. he just has to pick up a little bit. john williams, the current fed president later this afternoon around 3:00 p.m. tomorrow 11:30, michael mckee, loretta mester. michael mckee joins us now. tom: look at the screen over

here. michael: there is still uncertainty. perhaps the bitcoin exchange at about 1500 yesterday. essentially you want to see how much confidence one of the bigger hots has that we are out of the woods on inflation because we saw mickey bowman yesterday say essentially she thinks that we are at the peak and she has been urging the fed to continue raising rates. if that is the case, then we will see if loretta agrees. that might give a little more certainty to it. one of the questions that has arisen is what they should do about the biology. it is not the open market committee's decision. it is the board because the board is in charge of that but they will weigh in on that.

we will see what it looks like from there. somebody sit me a question the other day which i think is very important and that is what do you think is driving inflation now. do we think it is going to keep coming down? how confident are you that it will come down? tom: right. michael: what is the inflation dynamic these days? tom: the last on linkedin someone put out howard marks annual letter and there was a blistering syndicates adjusting that we are set up for a higher rate regime. i heard from a professor from harvard what we will hear from john williams this afternoon. is john williams going to do a rogue speech or will he address that we get back to a lower rate regime? michael: i don't want to call it a rogue speech but it is an

economic outlook. i think he will be talking shorter term. there is no question at the fed, even with john williams, that you will have a higher rate regime. we are not going back to zero. the issue is where do we go down to? that brings in r-star issue for john williams. i don't think he will go there yet because we are still a long way from rate cuts let alone getting down to a so-called neutral level, whatever that is. jonathan: we have to ask another question, how much of the hiking we have seen over the last 18 months has contributed to the disinflation we have seen over the last several months? can we put our finger on that michael: we can and people are trying to do that. it is hard to parse it out. most economists are coming around that argument that it has been supply chains that have brought down inflation. things like oil prices coming down because demand has fallen off. is it demand in the united states caused by the fed or is

it demand in china because their economy is very weak right now? those are hard things to parse out. the fed is going to take credit. they need the credit for their credibility so let them take it. it is likely they will think about, it does not matter who gets the credit as long as you are having success. jonathan: they've got a lot of the blame as well. michael: it's like being the president of the united states. you have very little to do with the economy, day-to-day movements, but you get all the blame. jonathan: michael mckee, thank you. look out for michael mckee's interview with loretta mester at 11:30 eastern tomorrow morning. the new york fed at 3:15. tom: we will talk with michael mckee about this bitcoin eft order. right now we will further the discussion on the american economy with kathy bostjancic of

nationwide. what is the state of the consumer? kathy: happy to be with you. the consumer has been really resilient and not really reflective of the labor market continuing to be quite strong. we have growth that continues to outpace the monthly estimates and wage growth continues to be growing. it is not going to be the brilliant spending that we have had in the past. all of the pandemic related savings has been run down. the consumer can continue to run. tom: the character of our wage growth has been compared to a declining inflation. it is something the optimists speak of. is it normal? is it a normal dynamic now or do you put an asterisk around what that means?

kathy: it is getting more normalized. wage growth, if you look at the average earnings numbers, they are around 4.1. usually they are around 3.5. wage growth is up there but inflation is not back to dew points -- 2% either. what you are seeing is steady wage growth. it is not stellar but it is not negative either. that helps to keep the picture more buoyant. we do think there is some sterling underneath the headline and climate numbers. the question is do we see just a soft patch in growth in the middle part of the year or a mild recession. we are still thinking a mild recession as possible. we certainly recognize that the data has come in stronger than expected. jonathan: how would you expect

john williams to address some of those issues this afternoon? kathy: very much looking forward to his comments and to put into perspective what we are talking about. rate cuts but not really. i do think we are in an interesting time. in a way, it is better than they thought but it is still complicated. it is better because inflation has come down much quicker than they thought. the labor market has been more resilient. the ideas not just about lowering inflation but can we stabilize the economy to avoid a harder landing. i am interested to see how he threads that. one message he will probably deliver is the bond market is a little too optimistic and the timing of rate cuts. to be honest we are looking for may pricing to not be

that different. the fact that the fed will be cutting rates this year and while inflation starts to turn around, it very well will. jonathan: on the surface it is contradictory to talk about maintaining a restrictive stance and to maintain these surgical rate cuts at the same time with a focus on real yields. do you think they can entertain both ideas simultaneously and communicate effectively and clearly? kathy: communication has not been their bright spot, to be honest. they need to communicate clearly but i do also think prudence is well taken. are you removing some of that restrictiveness and you still want to hold onto it because you are not 100% confident? or do you say, we have a high degree of confidence. we are getting to michael's interview with loretta mester.

how does the real rate play into the mix of things? right now the real rate is higher. tom: nationwide is on your side and all that. the unemployment rate is 2.80%. help me with senator warren from the commonwealth of massachusetts. she will be up on the tables popping champagne and celebrity an unemployment rate of 2.80% -- should we be up on the tables popping champagne and celebrating an un-upon a rate of 2.80% -- an unemployment rate of 2.80%? kathy: there is not as much exuberance out there. eventually the fed will be cutting interest rates at some point this year. that is a very positive message to your point.

the employment -- unemployment rate in columbus is very low. we need to applaud that. jonathan: where do you have unemployment year end? kathy: we see the unemployment persisting a bit higher but not above 5%. you are looking at something around 4.7% or so. let some of the air out of the economy but does not press the market. jonathan: thank you. kathy bostjancic of nationwide. time for the inflation rate to carry on for the economy even if it dips into recession. when do we see an unemployment rate in the high fours? tom: some really interesting dynamics. it is very complex even with the

simplicity that we toss around. it is an arch issue here, the fully employed america and yet you read about the challenges out there. for example, the number of people getting jobs full-time versus part-time and the part-time ism of people with two or three jobs. jonathan: futures on the s&p 500 almost totally unchanged. we are down by 0.02%. 3.9924. in the commodity market, $73 and $.17 on w ti. even with those difficulties with the red sea that we have been talking about all morning. tom: this is something we have underplayed with the red sea. you have 18 things coming in a ship, it's not two things or one thing. this is a concerted effort. you just have to wonder when there will be a response. jonathan: there was a response, wasn't there? we were talking to mike shepard

about this 20 minutes ago. about u.s. forces and allies shooting down 13 drones and missiles. this is real stuff. the shipping giant has pauseed operations for the foreseeable future in the red sea. tom: you have to wonder into the weekend with all of this and the rest. there is not one, there are two major worries going on that we need to focus on. huge challenges in ukraine. jonathan: big time. a lot to discuss. coming up, the brilliant david rubenstein. that conversation up next. that conversation up next.

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>> as the new gop inhibitors which are these drugs that really affect how we feel about

being full, become further advanced, i think it will be an overall change for american healthcare. the global impact will reduce our overall health burden including cancer. >> this is a massive story. that was the president and ceo of memorial sloan-kettering. watch more of the interview tonight on the david rubenstein show at 9:00 p.m. in new york. we are only scratching the surface around that story. what the drugs can be used for and how they might transform the american economy. tom: you have been on top of this. the answer is this has become a real story not only for the companies that are leading the way including eli lilly, but it just keeps growing. my only question is on the research, somebody tell me there is not a downside and i do not believe i have seen a downside yet. it really gets my attention. jonathan: we have talked about

side effects but there is still research about whether it can be useful if it is just this, diabetes, weight loss. if you can deal with addiction as well more broadly away from obesity and the amount of food you are consuming, imagine what it means for alcoholism, you wonder what it means for gambling. there is a whole range of issues. i want to know whether we are truly only scratching the surface or more broadly what the use of these drugs might be. tom: the real issue is portion control. what does it do if you have a drug like this to the discipline of americans? i can see that all my travels to each and every country. there is something unique about how americans chow down the food. will we chow down even more now that we have this wonder drug? i don't know. let's leave that. let's move on.

let's get to the s&p 500. jonathan: we are unchanged this morning on the s&p. we have gone almost absolutely nowhere. -0.04% on the s&p 500. yields are lower by two basis points on the 10 year. there is a lot happening in the next 24. the cpi is coming tomorrow morning 8:30 eastern. ppi on friday. tons of bank earnings as well. jp morgan to get earnings season underway. my focus is on apple. apple was the company coming into the new year because of the downgrades we saw from barclays. tom: we will go through that. you will see our coverage of apple appeared we are so advantaged by having mark gurman over all of the details with his newsletter. jon, it is more than apple. this is the one time where that

magnificent seven and i know they are all different stories but we really need to hear the nuances of amazon, the nuances of microsoft and the others. tesla is its own little story with elon. this is the one time you do not just want to sit down. jonathan: president biden's top middle eastern fires met with the prime minister and discussed regional tensions and efforts to secure the release of hostages held in gaza according to a u.s. source and two other sources familiar with the trip. it is interesting, great reporting from the likes of the team. i secret meeting took place last month between ukraine, its group of seven allies will be a small group of countries to dryly -- countries to rally support for holding peace talks with russia. you have these two wars happening on the surface that

were off sink from the outside looking in. looking at what's happening in gaza between hamas and israel. we are learning about the complications. tom: what is different now is the diplomacy including the visibility of a headline scoop and what the biden administration is doing is it is moving at light speed now. how do you prosecute diplomacy in 2024 versus 1944 or 1964 in vietnam? it is completely different. jonathan: you have pointed out the imagery being delivered to people's homes. we are seeing these wars in real time. graphic, terrible, horrific. tom: i am from the outside looking in, my focus is our diplomacy with the israeli government. i look back at the coverage we have done and our conversation with the former governor of the bank of israel.

he was not chilling but he was quite forceful on how domestic israeli politics have shattered. jonathan: let's go through stories elsewhere. launching one of the most complex attacks in the red sea today. u.s. forces and allies shooting down 18 drones and a barrage of missiles aimed for u.s. shipping lanes. many companies have already rerouted vessels away from the red sea sending ships on a longer route around southern africa, just speaking to the tension in that part of the world. tom: we mentioned this last week. 2300 miles. my reading is it is overwrought. it is overwrought with danger around the cape of good hope. it is a longer trip. jonathan: much longer and more expensive potentially. this is what we heard from the

ceo, dave calhoun speaking to the public yesterday as concerns grow over the safety of the 737 max jet. >> all i can think about, i did not know what happened to whoever was supposed to be in the seat in the whole of the airplane. i have kids, grandkids and so do you. this stuff matters. jonathan: regulators grounding the planes and ordering inspections after a door plug ejected from an alaska airlines flight on friday. they found additional loose bolts during an inspection. there is no clear timetable for the jets to be back in service. this morning maybe we will be back in the air by next week. we cannot move away from this. dave calhoun alluded to it. thank goodness there was no one in their seat right next to the hole in that plane. tom: yes but beyond that, will there be a next time? the news is not encouraging. to me the single tip point was

when united said we've got problems as well. that is when it shifted from is this one isolated plane or not and not reigned supreme within our uncertainty. jonathan: what does it mean for the business? you heard what jeffrey said. you had michael complaining about the delays to deliveries. there is a real chance given that we do not know what will happen here that we could see further delays to those deliveries. the response from analysts is that opal tometi you will see cancellations -- ultimately you will see cancellations of all of this. they have been ramping up production because the oil block is compact. tom: the common thing from brooke sutherland at jefferies is simple. this is about covid and diminished labor force quality. frankly you are hearing that a lot from other industries as well. i look at team surveillance and

there is no question we have diminished. jonathan: let's finish there with blackrock killing 600 jobs, 3% of staff citing rapid changes. "we see our industry changing faster than at any time since the founding of blackrock." executives saying etf's are not becoming the practice for management strategies. they are still planning to have a larger staff by the end of the year despite the cuts. we said it earlier on in the program. we are looking for financial services and the potential for cuts to come through. there is one set of cuts, asset management specifically. will we hear more about that as we close out the week? tom: the answer is that the percentage point is an opportunity, 2%, 3%, 4% cuts like this black rock one is an opportunity to rehire where you

need people in places like etf's and bitcoin. when you get to 4% cut, tangible , and with black rock is the cuts now and cuts earlier in the year that add up to a large number. jonathan: still to come on bloomberg tv and radio, 1:00 p.m. eastern time, cathie wood. i imagine there will be a question or two or three or four. tom: we spoke to her in london. we really handed it to her and she was very good about justifying her track record. jonathan: will you be glued to the bloomberg terminal later this afternoon? tom: my people have me on some orders. jonathan: is that interrupting them now? tom: do i put it in a 201 k or do i go taxable? jonathan: it serves you well.

from new york city this morning, good morning.

>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide, i am manus cranny in for jonathan ferro. equity markets are cautious. 24 hours away from cpi. who should be more nervous, bonds or stocks? the countdown to the open begins right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro.