thanks, bro! you've got more options than you know. book now. >> where 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day. here are the top stories we are following. pico outweighs earnings for now. stocks shaking off tesla''s big myth last night, shooting higher things to a strong showing for third quarter gdp. honing in on housing -- what is the future for homebuilders after a banner 2023? we discuss with cheryl palmer, the ceo of taylor morrison, one of the largest residential homebuilders. and john gray. we will bring you part of bloomberg television' is conversation with the blackstone president after the alternative asset manager beat on profit.

i'm katie greifeld in new york. welcome to bloomberg markets. let's take a quick check of those markets right now. we have green on the screen. the s&p 500 up by about 0.4 percent, actually outpacing big tech. the nasdaq 100 up by about 0.3%. we are keeping an eye on microsoft. some news breaking about 30 minutes ago. michael soft cutting about 2000 or so gaming jobs. i wanted to focus on homebuilders. we had a banner 2020 three. that index up double digits and then some, rocketing higher. of course, we are looking for some breaking eco-data on new home sales. for more now, we are joined by michael mckee. michael: they're not going to break the string of good news numbers today, because new home sales come in higher-than-expected.

606 to 4000 on an annual basis. that is up 8%. the anticipation was for a 10% rise for this. economists did not know that last month was revised higher to six and 15,000, from 590,000. more sales in november. and more sales in the month of december. good news on the new housing front. we'll see what happens in january. the storms may slow us down. it continues this trend we have seen all day of good news. ddp coming in, up 3.3% in the fourth quarter. much higher than anticipated. the gdp price index, 1.5%, way down from what the fed target would be. jobless claims, up from 189, but still very low. and capital goods orders on aircraft and defense, the part that goes in gdp, revised higher

in november. really good news today. katie: good to watch markets take good news ahead of good news, interesting ahead of the fed market -- fed meeting next week. is anything we learned this morning shift the balance? michael: it does not shift the balance in terms of the january meeting, but it is a lot for the fed to think about as we go into the march meeting. if we get confirmation tomorrow as we get the pce numbers that inflation is falling below 2%, that suggests they might want to consider cutting. but the strength of the economy, at least according to jay powell at his last press conference, could lead them to hold longer, or even raise rates again. a finely balanced decision and it will be an interesting time for at least futures traders between now and march. katie: mike mckee, thanks so much. let's keep talking about these

markets. one of wall street''s biggest bulls, consult this -- john, has the s&p 500 price target up about 5200 this year. i'm thrilled to have you with us. they're looking at and s&p 500 nearing 4900. what brings us another 6% or 7% higher? john: thanks for having me on the show. where we are right now, we think it is more sampling from economic data as well as news we are getting from q4 earnings season, that suggests resilience remains in the economy even as the fed has success in placing inflation in check, which would likely imply that the fed will remain on hold, allowing resilience to continue forward. the market likely would trend higher as bears continue to

capitulate. katie: what is interesting is what the fed is doing and what the stock market is doing. when you think about the s&p 500, how dependent is your call on what the fed actually does? john: i think quite a bit in the sense that we have all along really regarded that very different than many of our competitors. we regard the fed as being remarkably sensitive. as to the effect of practicing its mandate of protecting the economy and making sure enough resilience remains so that they don't push this economy into a recession. thus far, they have succeeded. the hype cycle started in march of 2022 before coming up to a second anniversary. knock on wood, so far, so good. that is not to say we could not see more slowing in effect as

the fed remains on pause, versus cutting rates. we think the fed will likely, when it does cut, if it keeps doing what it is doing, and has a positive effect on markets and the economy -- think it may not begin cutting rates until the second half of the year. and then, not because it is pushing the economy into a recession, but arriving at a moment where enough is enough, and perhaps judging the effects of any lag in the policy from the pause would indicate it would be ok to give the market and the consumer overall, and business, the ability to have at least one cut this year, maybe two. katie: to continue down this path a little bit further, does it truly matter for corporate fundamentals weather and how many times the fed cuts? for example, if you think about last year, you had the fed still

hiking, and it did not cause the profit picture to fall apart. if rate hikes did not make an dent, how much would cutting matter? john: as long as the cutting is not being done because it looks like the economy is slipping into a problematic, painful recession, i think the cutting would be taken as a positive. i think what the effect of the cutting cycle has been -- while short-term traders, highly leveraged players, are protesting and would love to force the fed to pivot much sooner than later, the reality is what we have in terms of interest rates is that now we have a period in which bond buyers are getting something in return in the coupon, which says

the opportunity is more traditional diversification, making fixed income not competitive with stocks, highly complementary, with stocks the main focus for most investors. we would think they would consider it for intermediate to long-term goals. katie: of course we are going to get more clarity, hopefully next wednesday, when we hear from the man, jerome powell, himself. i want to talk about the forecast. you made years on december 11, which feels like a long time ago. how flexible is the target as you move through 2024? john: we have to think the likelihood that, based on where we are right now, that we could see at some point, sooner than later, that target exceeded -- our discipline calls for us to wait for our target to be arrived at at a closing price

for the s&p 500. even if we crossed it on the intraday, it would not have much effect. if it closed above 5200, we would look at it at that point and then consider where the economy was at that point, where the fed was, look at corporate revenues and earnings guidance that we were seeing, what the housing market was doing, and either consider leaving it where it was, or tweaking it in either direction from there. katie: you are sticking with us. let's get a check on what is moving in these markets with bailey lipschultz. what have you got? billy: with american airlines, we are seeing a big rally across playmakers. boeing is under pressure. analysts were expecting 2.22, so the upper end of the range is above what wall street was looking for, talking of strength

expectations. really calling out strength in international travel. we are seeing people flowing around the world. i don't know if you have any international plants on the horizon, but we are seeing american air up. katie: it seems that has been the theme for a while, this bid for international travel. it does not seem like that is making a dent in these american airline numbers. billy: they are throwing boeing under the bus, but rightfully so. katie: let's talk about international business machines, ibm. billy: analysts playing up that this is an underappreciated ai play. a 12% jump, the biggest jump since october 2002. i don't know what you were doing in 2002. i was not trading ibm or paying attention to the stock. analysts talking of expectations in 2024. free cash flow.

it does seem the company is finding its groove. not at the highs it saw a little over a decade ago. when you look at it on a 12 to 18 month basis, really turning the quarter. katie: i was putting my money in index funds as every eight-year-old should. this talk about sherwin-williams. bailey: earnings forecasts falling slightly below in terms of the midpoint. we did see shares recoup those losses, trading about flat. strength in commercial and residential. apartment buildings, new homes, there has been a boon for new home projects. me repainting my new house is not really going out and buying a ton of paint. the expectations may be a bit softer than people were expecting. there is enough for both bowls and bears to chew on. the market is up quite a bit. katie: congratulations on that, by the way, newly minted homeowner, bailey lipschultz. good to see you.

tesla' is tough earnings quarter that has some analysts calling it a train wreck. details next. ♪

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>> this was unimportant call where musket and the rest of the team needed to step up and give some guidance in terms of what is happening in pricing, the margin impression, -- the margin pressure, strategically. i think "train wreck" would probably be soft. the long-term stories -- they needed to navigate, communicate. they did not do that. you will see a lot of pressure

on the stock. katie: that was dan ives, wedbush securities, speaking earlier today on tesla earnings, the stock sliding the most since mid-october as elon musk warns that the company's rate of expansion will be "notably lower" this year. we are joined by craig trudell. is it safe to say, at this point, that all of the price cuts we saw last year aren't exactly working? craig: i guess they worked if the goal was to increase sales. the question is, by how much? this is a company that was guiding to the idea of 50% growth year after year. he started to see signs of real strain even late 2022. throughout last year, it was sort of one price cut after another. you had a lot of analysts predicting a bottom eventually that just never really came. we saw the prophet margins held

up ok in the fourth quarter, but some real concern about the outlook for the coming year, when asked about this last night and on muska not really say that we are done cutting, the margins are done falling. essentially falling back on this messaging of if interest rates don't come down, price cuts will continue. katie: let's talk about next year. tesla has plans to build a cheaper next-generation vehicle. but muska, i feel like he tends to overpromise. his leg which around that production, calling it challenging -- how worrisome is that? craig: based on his track record, you have to be really concerned. he liked to joke about it and talk about tesla making the impossible merely late, but he does really have a track record of overpromising and under delivering. to tesla' is credit on the model why, which has been the smash hit and was on time, you think of the more recent product that

just came out, the cyber truck -- that was years behind schedule. i would not be surprised if they fell way behind on the next model they are bringing out, because of how important it is, and how far back we knew this was in the works. was was talking about this battery day, and it should be here. katie: i want to see eight -- a cyber truck in person. you can see shares absolutely plunging today. how ominous is what we heard from tesla for some of these pure play ev makings -- ev makers? craig: these companies have struggled to measure up to tesla. if they are having trouble, truly it spells bad news for rivian and lucid in terms of the outlook for ev demand. this just reinforces a lot of

headlines we have seen about how much growth there is left in ev's, and whether we are reaching a point of saturation. katie: that is craig trudell. thank you. let's welcome back in the chief excess cement -- -- investment strategist. tesla only has a 1.3% waiting -- weighting in the s&p but microsoft and apple have about 7%. that is bigger than some entire sectors. what do you think about these giant stocks given that some of them have a greater sway than those sectors? >> when we look at the magnificent seven in particular, what we recognize is that they are deeply embedded in the lives of both business and the consumer. as a result, that makes them fairly resilient.

we saw that in 2022. they got hit hard. they were quick to rebound in the fourth quarter of 2022. and then 2023 really exemplified as to what they were about. we tend to look at this from a perception of both the current cycle as well as the secular cycle, and it just looks to us -- and we have felt this way for quite a few years now -- that the technology is today likely in a place parallel to where the automobile was in the early 20th century, after henry ford had mechanized the assembly line, brought down the price of the automobile, and raise the quality. the accessibility of technology -- it is not just about excitement from investors. it is the practicality of its

application. ai, the dream part of it, that may be further away, but what is realized today is causing companies across the 11 sectors, including tech and communication services, up 50% -- but particularly, the other sectors, cyclical and defensive, are looking at investing part of capex in the future, in ai, because they want to remain -- either they want to keep a competitive edge or want to maintain a good value story for investors to remain loyal to them. katie: i'm glad you brought up ai, because i'm looking through your notes and you point out the industrial sector has exposure to agriculture, manufacturing, but also artificial intelligence. i feel like the knee-jerk reaction is still to say ai and people think big tech. what is the potential when it comes to industrials?

john: i've been in this business for 40 years. when i used to talk about industrials, it was a lot of metal, plastic, glass, gears, and big computers in the basement of major corporations. today, technology is deeply embedded in industrial products, whether it is defense, aerospace, power generation, traditional energy. whether it is home appliances. and as such, ai will increasingly play, we believe, a component of the industrial sector, especially as the expanded investment in the industrial sector occurs, we believe, this year, as we move into this period where we get to spend some of that money the government has set aside for building our infrastructure and our technology in the u.s..

the industrial space provides all of the equipment for sectors across both services and the companies that build products. whether you are manufacturing or serving clients for a product that is a service-oriented product, ai stands to be a big part of it, and the industrial sector is very much a part of all 11 sectors, whether it is medical or the other. katie: so ai is not just tech. it caught my eye that utilities are your loan underperform rating. why is that? john: the problem is, they are a bond proxy. but we do believe that the utilities will be a big part of the modernization of the national grid, the electric

grid, the problem for the near term tends to be whatever -- whenever the market gets concerned that the fed might remain more vigilant against inflation rather than thinking of beginning to cut rates, it is a problem for the bond proxies. for investors who are in need of consistent dividends from regulated utilities, they remain an attractive area for them. we have to say you are going to see fluctuation we can expect of the valuations of those shares, and they will likely not be where you would see performance. we rated them underperform last year. we still wait them underperform. katie: we will have to check in again soon. that is john stoltzfus from oppenheimer asset management. still ahead, we look at companies making the most social buzz today. "social climbers" is up next.

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katie: time for social climbers, the stocks making waves on social media this morning. first up, the embattled airline manufacturer facing another setback as the faa freezes plan production increases for the 737 max. chip giant gaining on the heels of a positive industry read showing strong demand for sme's. let's look at humana. the health insurer withdrawing 2025 earnings target and forecasting profits that are far lower for this year than analysts had expected. the company blames runaway medical expenses. you can follow the latest company buzz on your bloomberg terminal. coming up, december new home

sales exceed forecasts. we get a read on that with cheryl palmer, the taylor morrison chairman and ceo. ♪

katie: we learned about 30 minutes ago that december u.s. new home sales beat forecasts, next to lower mortgage rates bringing buyers back into the market. some of the dynamics with cheryl palmer, -- sheryl palmer at taylor morrison, one of the largest residential home builders. let's start with marcus rates -- mortgage rates. look at the 30 year, above 8% in late october. a couple months later, we are now hanging out around 7% or so. what has that fall meant for demand? have you noticed any impact so far? sheryl: you are exactly right.

i think we peaked late october, maybe even that first week of november. rates are actually over 8%. today i can tell you that a 30 year is probably in the high sixes. so a tremendous difference. some builders have already reported that they saw a ramp-up in the fourth quarter. that has continued into the new year. new builders have an advantage because you are able to provide programs to customers to take those high six rates and help them through some buydowns to allow them to get into the market with a very attractive 5%, 5.5% rate. katie: let's talk about those incentives a little bit more. plenty of homebuilders including taylor morrison have been using those sorts of programs to sort of get an edge here.

how heavily do you plan to continue to lean on these incentives, especially heading into the spring season? sheryl: it is very different. i think it is very difficult to paint one picture or one brush across the u.s. or across consumers. if i look at the differences over the last let's call it 30 to 45 days, honestly we are able to offer lower rates today, probably a 50% reduction in costs. we certainly use those opportunities with those first-time buyers. that is where i think the greatest need is, where consumers have more equity in their existing home. they could make some choices on the size of the home they buy. tend to see those with that first time consumer. there is not one program that fits every customer. we really make sure we

personalize it for the individual customer. that might be helping them with closing. it might be the certainty of a fixed rate. katie: let's also talk about pricing, bring that into the discussion. you heard from d.r. horton earlier they are also considering -- continuing their incentive programs, lowering their prices. is that something you are considering as well? sheryl: we certainly saw that through the early and middle part of last year, today i will tell you that is generally not the case. if we go back to our last conversation, if you think about the power of those finance incentives, i am so much better off using $20,000 to help with the interest rate. that would result in something like $60,000 in price reduction. it is better for them. he gets them a lower monthly payment.

there will always be exceptions, but in general i would expect some modest appreciation as we move through the year. katie: it will be fascinating to watch that, but i want to go back to mortgage rates. it has been the centerpiece of so many of my personal conversations over the past year. there is this real narrative out here -- i'm sugar familiar with it, that so many homeowners are sitting on 3% mortgage rates, and are reluctant to sell their home and give up that rate. if you take that at face value, you think there is a range of mortgage rates that would start to unlock things? sheryl: i think we started to see it as rates moved earlier this month. they got into those low sixes. it allowed us to get into the low fives. there were some buydowns.

i think we are right there on the edge. one of my favorite new statistics is for every 100 basis points of reduction in rate, that unlocks about 12% of new homeownership. i think it has to normalize. you have to have some consistency. that is probably the most critical, that some of the volatility we saw last year -- some people recognize that this 6% is really, by long-term expectations, a good rate. and to your point, i think 2023 was probably the lowest existing sales we have seen through the years. once again, that has really benefited the market. katie: i also want to get your thoughts on the industry overall. last week, as i'm sure you are

aware, a japanese based builder but mdc for $4.9 billion, the largest acquisition of a u.s. homebuilder ever. how do you think this changes the u.s. competitive landscape, if at all? sheryl: a wonderful opportunity for both the buyer and the seller. i don't know that it changes the overall landscape at all. i think the intention is to build some scale, maybe by combining some of the international buyers, as you suggested. but i'm very excited for both parties. i think it is a great transaction for the sellers. i don't see that it has a real impact on the industry or the strategy for the markets. katie: taylor morrison no stranger to mn day yourself.

-- to m&a yourself. do you have any acquisitions you are thinking about? sheryl: we have looked at deals over the last many years, and in 2020. and has been about three years. the organization is very focused on growth. we are really, after completing the integration, reaping the benefits of the scale it provided us. and it has really changed our branding. when i think about today's environment and being able to meet our customers where they are through this scale, and being able to help them with the shopping experience virtually, and trust them -- very excited. also very excited to continue to grow the company with that. katie: really appreciate your time today. that is the ceo of taylor

morrison. let's head back to these equity markets. abigail doolittle standing by with more. abigail: we're looking at jane's for the s&p 500 and the other major indexes, but at this point, we are slightly off the highs. the s&p 500 heading to another record closing high if these gains persist. the nasdaq 100 up about 0.5%. the russell 2000 up about three quarters of 1%. it is interesting that we have these gains with the economic data so strong. you would think it could be interpreted as good news is bad news. that is not the case so far. but maybe that will happen. nathan the surface, let's look at the big movers because they are not all gainers or laggards. ibm fluctuating between its best day of 1999 and 2020. a solid quarter and big cash flow outlook. united rentals, it's best day since july or january 2022, up

13%. their adjusted profit of 11.1 he six dollars, 5 -- $11.26, better than expected. humana cut the 24 forecast. he pulled the 2025 forecast on runaway medical expenses and tighter government policies. tesla of course having its worst day of the year, with slower growth in volume growth for 2024. in terms of the s&p 500, something interesting is developing, and we have a bearish divergence. you can see the higher highs for the s&p 500 out of last year -- it is on less momentum as the rsi falls. typically, this will indicate that some consolidation for stocks could be ahead. we do not know, because bullish momentum can keep going. one thing that could be behind this divergence -- the yields

are higher things to pressure stocks, but that is not happening at this point, so stay tuned on that divergence. katie: abigail doolittle, thank you so much. coming up, legal and political challenges of a diversity, equity, and inclusion program. the wall street week daily, next. ♪

katie: keeping the ei on the radar -- in recent months, diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives at universities and corporations have faced legal

challenges and political backlash, but they are not going away yet. diana scott, head of the u.s. human capital center, spoke to david westin about whether the initiatives have gone too far. diana: certainly, the conversation has been very divided, and i think with a lot of the conversation being pretty divisive, people are focusing on words, and people have lost sight of the work that needs to be done. and i think perhaps even the purpose. the pendulum swung way in one direction. i think now we need to find some center. i think that if we can focus on why we do the work, and what is the business impact, we can get the conversation back on an even keel. david: you have a lot of ace -- a lot of experience in the real world. examples of where it has been done well and done not so well,

what distinguishes those? diana: i think the companies that understand that they get their best productivity out of their employees by creating the kind of culture and values that their employees can align to and feel that they are recognized, that they have opportunity, that they see upward mobility, that they see their voices being heard -- those employees are going to do their best, and if you have an environment -- get the environment we are in right now. labor is so tight. wages are high. unemployment is low. there is a war for talent. if you want the best and the brightest, you have to figure out how to create and implement brand for yourself that allows you to attract and retain the best. we just did a study with ceo's

and c-suite executives where we surveyed 1200. half of them were ceo's. we asked them, what are your number one areas of focus going into 2024 and your areas of concern that you want to focus on. the internal issue that came up number one for ceo's and everybody else in the c-suite -- attract and retain employees, because they know that given the current environment, it is hard to do that. given the evolving environment of technology, needing to innovate, needing to grow, they need the best and the brightest. how do you do that? need to make sure that you are attracting the best. you have to create a culture and unemployment brand for yourself that creates some stickiness for your employees. david: when i had experience, i lived by the idea that you cannot measure it.

how can you manage the ai -- de i if it is a priority? diana: you do need to understand the diversity of the organization, so it is important to look at demographics, whether it is race, gender, sexual orientation. but it is not to create quotas. it is just to understand. that is number one. it is very important to understand how engaged your employees are, and there are a number of ways to measure that. at engagement surveys. look at your turnover rates. we have many platforms where people can crowd source their opinions about organizations. it is important to understand what your employment brand looks like. look at turnover. look at your ability to move people within the organization. it is really important to align your leadership with some of

these factors, where you say you will be evaluated based on your ability to attract and retain the breast and the brightest. -- the best and the brightest. are you productive? are you able to create stickiness with your employees? do you keep the best and the brightest? do you have a good succession pipeline for your organization? those are the things that you can measure and you can say, has that translated into our bottom line? are we developing innovative products? do we understand our customer base? are we finding new services? do we understand how we grow and innovate? are we creating new product lines? ava: if you are evaluating employees, management, on that basis, does that mean compensation will be tied to it? david: -- diana: i think it

needs to be. you have to be careful. ultimately, if we do this right, if an organization focuses on creating the kind of culture that attracts the best and the brightest, they should be delivering innovative new products. they should be growing and delivering great ebs to their stockholders. ultimately, you need to stick with the business metrics. but there are ways to look at individuals and evaluate individual leaders, their ability to retain the best employees, ability to find the best talent and to attract the best talent. and you see those people. they are talent builders. there is a way to evaluate business results, but there is another factor, and that is what sticks with the individual. is this leader somebody who has great invade -- engagement,

retention? have they created a place people are clamoring to work at? do employees recommend their friends to come to the place? those need to be factored into compensation. katie: that was diana scott with david westin. ♪ (♪♪) we're lucky to have this team working for us. our therapists give their all each day, by helping those who need it most. we take great pride not just in the job our team does, but in them as people. our people. and while we're in the business of taking care of others... it's important our therapists know that with benefits from principal, they're taken care of too.

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katie: blackstone reported that their profit climbed 4% in the last quarter of 2023 as president joel grey seems an inflection point for private equity after enduring one of the industry's worst years. she spoke earlier this morning with sonali basak. >> we will continue to see that activity. there are companies out there who do not feel like they are getting valued appropriately. there are some spac's from a

different era that may not be trading particularly well. there may be real estate companies trading at a discount to their underlying asset value. there could be infrastructure companies that could be great long-term holds in the private market. i think we will see some of that. if you think about the trillions of dollars of assets held by private equity sponsors, there will be a desire to move towards liquidity, and that will create a lot of opportunity across various areas of blackstone. sonali: performance fees pressured for you guys come across the industry. you think the ipo market is opening for exits for blackstone portfolio companies? >> you would expect at some point it is going to reopen. it has been a tough couple of years for ipo's. like m&a, there is cyclicality for this. i think we will see a better market, particularly as cost of

capital is coming down. exits sometimes takes time. you have to identify companies you look to sell. you consider maybe a private sale. but a more conducive market is helpful for that activity as you look towards the back half of 2020 four. equity markets and receptivity to new companies should improve. katie: that was jonathan gray. joining us now is the woman who did the interview, sonali basak. it was interesting to hear his comments on the cyclicality of the ipo market. sonali: you have a sense that they are ready to spend about $200 billion in dry powder on deals, but as it comes to taking companies public, we see some prominent ipo's on the horizon in the last couple of weeks and months, the question is, is it robust enough for a firm like

blackstone to start to sell among themselves? the public market is hungry for new investments, however they are slow to come. katie: credit markets have been on the back foot for a while. we will see of 2024 is when the dam breaks, so to speak. we will see more of that interview throughout the day. let's take a look at some of the stocks hitting 52 week highs and lows. we have ibm hitting a 52-week high after delivering a positive revenue and cash flow outlook this year. you also have microsoft higher after announcing it will cut 1900 jobs across its videogame division. that is about 8% of its workforce. finally, you can see you have s.a.p., a german software company. it is planning a restructuring

that it says will affect about 8000 jobs and increase its focus on ai. not giving too much of a bump to shares, but still good for a 52-week high. the 52-week lows -- humana is hitting that low after cutting its 2024 forecast. pulling its earnings target for next year translates into a 14% drop for shares. pretty hefty. i want to talk about kuma as well, a german sportswear brand you probably have heard of. it has fallen to its lowest intraday level since about 2018. that is after it missed 14 quarter sales and estimates. that is a 2% drop. coming up, we have to russia keeney, director of investment analysis at arc invest. she joins caroline hi and ed ludlow. ♪

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from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide. this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: i am caroline hyde at bloomberg headquarters in new york. ed: and i'm ed ludlow in san francisco. caroline: tesla shares slumped after a report on growth rate. ed: we speak to the seat f