training for japan and south korea, about 90 minutes after the start of trade for china as well. the question for those markets today is whether they will be facing any sort of reality check. paul: we have seen a decent rally for the hang seng and the csi 300 off the back of views of -- questions remain about the durability of that. annabelle: ins perhaps a reality for the boj and what they're really seeing signaled in the inflation numbers. we just have the services pbi coming out but the tokyo inflation numbers now telling a bit of a different story. the open for trading of the nikkei and at the start of the day we will be tracking those moves in the wall street session. a strong six-day gain overnight that could translate across the session so far. that focus on those inflation metrics that came out of tokyo

inflation really are the one to track because we sought falling below 2% for the first time since spring of 2022. tokyo inflation a leading indicator for the nationwide level. tracking around a three decade high, something that could help the boj or be word the thing -- think that it factors into its decision. the meeting minutes reflecting that officials are likely to wait until the spring wage negotiations are complete before they start to shift away from negative rate setting. sox coming online to the downside. let's look at what's happening in korea at the start of the day. the focus is coming down to earnings, intel numbers after the bell today, a very disappointing forecast because there saying sales in the first quarter will be maximum 13.2

billion dollars, about a billion dollars short of what the wall street projection had been. a signal that the company is still seeing a lot of weakness. coming online to the downside, the korean won weakness continue to persist past the 200 day moving average. paul: normally around this time i would be updating you on what's happening in australia, but they are close for public holiday. trading underway in japan, we saw yields falling and the trend is continuing into the tokyo session. perhaps motivated by gdp suggesting soft landing narrative truly intact. 3.3% for the fourth quarter for all of 2023, 2 .5% personal spending in the u.s. remaining

strong and economic strength in the u.s. defying a lot of the bears. annabelle: let's ring in our first guest of the hour, the head of asian investment strategy at j.p. morgan private bank. a strong start to the year for the nikkei, gaining nearly 10%, even on perhaps a little bit of weakness coming through in the session. uncertainties around what the boj does what we see in terms of normalization, but there are other factors investors are positive about. >> in the near term, we think there could be some consolidation. we've seen strong flows out of the hang seng into the topics. it's also run up a little head of where we see fundamentals with earnings upgrades. over the long-term we think the

corporate restructuring story will unlock additional value for investors we see many investors still underway japan. even japanese households are relatively under owning equities. annabelle: you talk about longer-term, structural growth and you think of india, you don't so much think of china. what your long-term? play with chinese equities? >> we are still selective. is something investors need to own. there's always going to be opportunities, but it's just about being more selective. nominal growth has come down quite dramatically. we're looking at a fairly week nominal growth outlook relative to india and many other economies in the region. annabelle: when it comes to the potential policies announce over the course of this week, it's clear that policymakers want to

get ahead of this to some degree. what has been your reaction so far? >> it does appear there is a new urgency, the start of the year data has been fairly week and disappointing. a newfound urgency to stem some of the slowdown but it's still too early, from our perspective it is not been enough to rejuvenate confidence and bring about a newfound bull market or accelerated growth. paul: if we look at it from the other end of the telescope, have stocks found a floor yet in china? >> we do think they have. all the stimulus measures and policy we've seen announced, it likely it likely limits the downside. so we're looking at offshore

china as somewhat range bound in the near term. largely range bound on the offshore side. that said, we do see it cap on the downside, and if we see additional measures announced, we could perhaps see upside. more than likely range bound. paul: do you have any concerns about the amount of debt being cared by -- carried a japanese companies? >> yes, but that has been a concern. if you look at the amount of overall debt, second only to japan, most of that is held in local governments. when you look at private corporate, the amount of debt, overall leverage has been going down the last couple of years. the problem is concentrated in local governments but the overall macrolevel is a concern.

annabelle: what is been interesting is u.s. gdp numbers, telling you that markets or individual consumer is also withstanding higher rates as well. >> i think it was even a surprise to powell at his december pass conference. -- press conference. the consumer stayed quite strong, contrary to expect a. so it is somewhat of a goldilocks type scenario. the big question, does inflation continue to cool to the target? the numbers are encouraging for a soft landing. annabelle: new look at stock market performance, the run-up from october, what are you thinking in what we are seeing from learning so far? it does appear like a mixed bag.

>> we did go through quite a trough last year. we think across the board we should see a positive return to earnings. we are more or less in line or slightly below consensus, that positive earnings growth were likely to see across the board can continue to drive equities a bit higher. we don't -- we do see equities going a bit higher this year. annabelle: thanks for your time this morning. still ahead, closer look at intel's disappointing forecast as shares tumble in late trading. more analysis next. this is bloomberg. ♪ j.p. morgan wealth management knows it's easy to get lost in investment research.

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annabelle: you are watching "daybreak: asia." about 10 minutes into training for tokyo and a big mover just coming online. renaissance down more than 5%. is specializes in chips for orders and other industries. the big news that came out yesterday after the bell is that i attach each nec are seeking to is a total of $2.1 billion by selling off their stakes in the company. a significant one to track. they are offering 100 23 million shares at up to 2528 yen a piece. the price representing a 6%-8% discount to the thursday close. you can see the drop reflecting

the terms as well. shareholders are companies looking to take advantage of the climbing equity prices, and in terms of chip related shares across the region, we had intel putting out a disappointing forecast for the current period, is the largest maker of computer processors. intel dropping more than 10% during this period. let's get more on the outlook now because we have our bloomberg intelligence analyst joining us here this morning. talk us through what stood out to you in the numbers. >> definitely the one to miss was the biggest thing that stood out. they had weakness in the non-core segments, which was a

growing concern. beyond that, we had expected the pc and server, their core business, to come to the rescue and offset some of that, and that didn't happen. so that's a little bit of a concern. on the positive note, they did guide for the total sales to resume trajectory after the first quarter. paul: the fourth quarter was a slight beat. what were the drivers for that? >> the primary driver was, most of it was drawn down. four q, we saw customers drawing down on the new inventory from intel, these are higher-priced, so it helped them get rid of everything they -- better than anticipated. annabelle: in terms of what

intel can have in future growth drivers, we know they are developing their own processor, we don't have a lot of details on that. >> it is concerning, but at the same time, they were behind in media and amd when you talk about -- the pipeline for scale like intel is still pretty small . there is concern there's a lack of a big customer announcement, but even more than that lack of revenue trajectory as to how much of the pipeline we will see this year or next year. paul: stay tuned for an interview coming up with the intel ceo for more on the

company and the industry outlook as well. that interview coming up later on on bloomberg technology. lg energy, the south korean battery maker out with fourth-quarter earnings, operating profit coming in at a miss. the market was looking for for 65,000,000,00 won. a bit of a miss their lg energy shares in south korea right now, trading pretty much flat. optimism over ai is fueling a seemingly unstoppable advance for microsoft. enclosed with the $3 trillion market cap for the first time. a bloomberg senior editor joins us now. a huge amount of optimism around ai in what it means for the

future of microsoft. how much longer is this enthusiasm going to run? >> there's a lot of believers in this technology that is going to change every industry on the planet, so whether that comes to be or it doesn't live up to the hype remains to be seen. there certainly a lot of questions about ethical issues and we saw the federal trade commission will start an investigation into the ai companies today. so there are definitely some speed bumps. annabelle: talk us through more about how concerned you are by that ftc, and could we see more of these crackdowns on monopoly power to come? >> there have been lawsuits

between regulators and the technology industry, but this is definitely something that will continue, we've seen news media organizations sue about artificial intelligence and the writer strike wrestled with this issue. the regulators investigating today have to be taken seriously but we really don't know where this all ends because there's just so many questions about the technology. paul: it's only been three months since microsoft acquired activision, and now there's a lot of layoffs happening. tell us more. >> quite a big chunk -- chunk of the gaming operation at microsoft, this isn't something they talked about during this long, tortured acquisition process, but regulators are

trying to prevent the acquisition from happening and they finally did. it is not unusual to have big layoffs. we've seen some pretty senior people at activision leave today. we've seen games canceled, and we are seeing this throughout the videogame industry as well as these companies refocus on their core brands and less so on experimental projects. paul: in terms of cancellations, one of the big ones is odyssey which was a survival game six years in the making. it sounded like it was going to be quite good. >> there are a lot of issues with it, it was a complicated game and microsoft had problems with the technology. our colleague has a story out

today with the back story of it all. but games can be complex things if you're trying to break new ground in this case it just didn't work. annabelle: that was chris, and as he just mentioned, three of the biggest names in tech, alphabet, amazon and microsoft, have received inquiries from a u.s. regulator about their investments and partnerships in ai. su keenan joins us with more from new york. what exactly is worrying the ftc about big tech's alliances here? su: they want to make sure the competitive landscape stays committed to -- competitive, and ties between old guard big tech and these new ai startups. the ftc making it clear that they are closely monitoring the industry in public workshop with the chair saying companies

cannot use claims of innovation is cover for lawbreaking. the ftc said it sent subpoenas to five companies together information and what you're looking at is bots for openai, the maker of chatgtp, they are playing video games, part of what generated enormous excitement in the market over the last 14 months. the probe is focusing on investments but microsoft, amazon and alphabets google. the series of transactions that appear to have cemented alliances between the cloud server giants and the eating developers of ai software. microsoft, google, openai and and prop 8, this is an ai firm start up that began in 2021 and was created by a lot of employees who left openai and wanted to start their own firm. so there are concerns that some of the most promising ai

startups are now depending heavily on a small group of very big tech arms for their financing and infrastructure needs and the ftc wants details. paul: usually the justice department conducts antitrust investigations involving big tech, so what has changed here? >> perhaps a little bit of politics and a little bit of procedural authority that allows this to happen. we know at least one democratic member of the ftc has criticized the tech giants for structuring their transactions, their huge funding into ai in a way that avoids the u.s. merger law, so they are not required to notify antitrust enforcers. the agency is using its authority to do what they call market studies to issue the subpoenas and gather information and they also have the authority to then launch probes based on the information or to aid in existing probes by other

agencies. microsoft has reportedly invested more than $13 billion in the chatgtp maker openai. google back in october committed to back anthropic, amazon also agreed to an investment of as much as $4 billion. so we are talking multibillion-dollar investments and the ftc wants to take a very close look. back to you. paul: su keenan there. plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪ morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. (laughter) at 88 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you

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gusto is payroll and benefits built for small businesses. get started for free at gusto.com paul: lacks on shares gained after i reported income that beat forecast of 90 six cents. the president and coo jonathan gray told us he expects ipo activity to pick up in the second half.

>> what's happening in our business is we are benefiting from this regime shift, as we move from this rising cost capital environment which we saw the last couple of years into an environment where as inflation comes down, the fed is easing, and that leads to a virtuous cycle for our business. equity markets open up, cost of capital comes down, ipos occur, m&a activity picks up. and that is very positive for our business in terms of react and. >> a lot of inflows came in the credit space, but at the same time, a lot of investors are worried that perhaps private credit is approaching bubble territory. the question becomes, are there enough opportunities out there to prudently put the money to work? >> when you talk about things like a bubble and credit, what i like to look at is how much risk is there, and if you look at the

loans originating in direct lending to private equity sponsors, on average they are about 40% loan to value. that's almost half what they were back in the 2006-2 thousand seven period when we had an actual bubble. default rates and credit for noninvestment grade borrowers are less than 30 basis points. so we still see a healthy market out there. but we do expect is that transaction activity will pick up and folks like us in the private credit space are in a really great position to deliver for borrowers. if you think about what we do, we make loans to companies and hold them either on behalf of our pension fund clients, it could be for individual investors or investment grade for our insurance companies. we can deliver certainty to borrowers, and that is taking more share. we are seeing a structural shift

toward private credit. it doesn't mean we are seeing excesses buildup in the system, because the fundamentals in terms of loan-to-value, credit quality, still are strong. >> how do you feel about the opportunity for m&a to move forward? the reality is we've only seen it in dribs and drabs. how fast do you see yourself putting hundreds of billions of dry powder to work? >> our expectation is we will see a pickup. if you look at our fourth quarter, you see early signs of that. our lending area saw more than doubling in terms of new loans we were making. if you look in her private equity area, we've been working on some of these transactions a long time. in the last six weeks of the year, we announced six deals across the u.s. and europe, many in sectors we like, digital marketplaces, enterprise software, energy transition, and in real estate we also saw a

pickup button activity. -- a pickup in activity. we are seeing a pickup, it does often take a hit of time, but things are starting to loosen. it does feel like a bit of an inflection point. annabelle: that was the blackstone president and coo. australia is shut for a public holiday but there is quite a bit of weakness we are seeing across sectors with the exception of energy standing out, but

>> the consensus around the table of the governing council was that it is premature to discuss rate cuts.

and in addition to that, i typically stand by my comments. we have to continue to be data-dependent. rather than being fixated on a particular calendar which would be date dependent we reaffirmed our data dependency. annabelle: that was the ecb president speaking after policymakers left interest rates on hold for a third time. also the ecb could start to cut rates around mid 2024 but taken by the markets as a signal that earlier moves are in play. traders stepping up their bids that we could see a reduction in april. 140 basis points of easing this year. stock futures coming online and are muted so far but perhaps looking to detract some of the

gains. what is interesting is the key market we are tracking is china and the expectations around using. -- around easing. bloomberg says that the -- the china economy editor joins us. how much more aggressive do policymakers need to be? >> at this point traders are expecting them to get more aggressive this year though i don't think that is the signal we have gotten from the government as a whole. we just saw in davos a chinese official saying they don't want to roll out massive stimulus to help the economy. what was unusual about this press conference from the pboc governor was that he front ran this announcement. normally you would see another state agency announced it first

and then there would be a more choreographed way of getting to that. but this may symbolize some urgency. but we will see from the pboc i think is more cuts this year. goldman is forecasting another in q2 and q4. they also have to take that with a desire a balance that with more structural tools they may need to help the economy. the pboc in the last few years has focused on guiding credit in specific targeted areas including green energy. it is hitting the balance. paul: we will be hearing from another policymaker, the vice head of china's finance regulator later today. what do we expect to hear? >> at this point when it comes to china, we are in the middle

of a $6 trillion stockmarket route. what people want to hear from china is any kind of additional pledges that can restore confidence in this economy and in the stock market. that is what we are looking for. earlier this week we saw the premier stress to a lot of government agencies that they needed to do more to put a floor under the stock market route. we have seen that in the form of what we saw from the pboc but also from other regulators this week in terms of val when to stabilize things. i would think we want to see anything that points to the idea of more stability whether it is concrete measures or pledges. anything that can project the idea of have confidence in this economy and that is what people are looking for. paul: our china economy editor. let's bring in the managing director at orient capital

research, andrew collier. we just had jill talking about policy efforts to put a floor under the stock markets. the msci and the hang seng have gained in the last few days but is it enough? andrew: i don't think the rally will be durable. you have monetary easing, bond issuance and rate interest cuts. and then you have an odd rumor of a 2 trillion yuan injection into the stock market by state owned entities, which has not been officially uttered. you have a chinese official making statements at a high level about their intentions for the future. i'm seeing a lot of symbolic gestures. monetary easing is significant and i would agree with that. we have had three years of crackdown in the property sector

and this is the earlier part of larger stimulus. but the government has been reluctant to open the floodgates because they are worried about more bad money going to local governments in the property sector. the whole thing about the two trillion is rumor. the idea of state buying up stocks is not the way to rejuvenate the economy. you need to make structural changes when you have a structural downturn. these are steps the market takes on board but i don't think it changes the calculus of property markets in a major downturn with massive amounts of debt and no easy way to get out of that. paul: you mentioned the need for reform. what needs to be done in your view to restore confidence markets and investors? andrew: the property crackdown was a step in the right direction because that is the bubble that has been propping up

local government revenues for the last 20 years. it is good though it is difficult to see how they will get out of that reliance on the state sector for growth, industrial loans going out and many are going to stay companies that are not efficient. property developers getting money are state owned property developers. and you have a stiff regulatory environment. what you need to do is try to get money to the private sector and relinquish some of the crackdowns on the tech sector that happened a few years ago starting with alibaba and ant financial and let the small businesses flourish. but that is not something that jeezy and ping -- president xi is interested in doing. annabelle: easier said than done. you can have a triple are cut.

when you look at the numbers, the demands for households is so weak. what will spark a meaningful sentiment shift? andrew: it is pushing on a string. they are throwing the money out there and no one is picking it up. semiconductors have a future 10 years from now. electric vehicles and green energy are small in terms of the overall economy. you have to find new growth drivers. there is no easy solution. when you have half the credit going through the state sector and they are not good at giving money to the private sector. these guys don't want to lose their jobs. i'm hoping there is going to be what i call forest reform where local governments are sitting there and they're watching massive defaults and they will push people out on the street

saying we will give you $100, see if you can start a business. this happened years ago in the wto. annabelle: i guess, just thinking about what you are saying about finding new growth drivers because you think about solar and ev, these are markets where there is a growing concern from western democracies at china has too much of a monopoly. is it that china will continue to look for the other d markets like africa and the middle east and tried to tap future demand from there instead? andrew: they cannot do that. ev has been a success story though they have wasted a lot of money getting to where they are now but i do think there will be a lessening of diplomacy. china needs the u.s. dollar breeding environment.

they cannot switch to the ruble. they will have to try to figure out how to play ball with the eu to maintain auto exports at some level that will keep some of these companies alive. i'm expecting a softening of tone going forward though that is not in xi's dna though it may be forced on him and the polyp itboro going forward. paul: i want to get your thoughts on debt. we have seen plenty of defaults in the property sector. are you concerned we could see defaults broadening to other sectors? andrew: i do. three years ago if you had said a lot of the property developers would default, a lot of people would say it is impossible in china. recently people said you could not have a trust default and yet we have. the next thing is the local

government financing deals. people say they cannot default because then there will be a collapse in the system. they will start defaulting. the government has been pretty good about containing these things. they can control the messaging. i think we will start seeing a piecemeal default moving through the system and that is what is happening so far. annabelle: i'm curious for your views on how much you think china actually cares and by china i mean president xi cares about the moves in stocks. the stocks account for such a small amount of household wealth. compared to real estate. are they that bothered by trying to prop up equity markets? andrew: that is a great point and i agree. i don't think xi cares although it is a measurable optic that

embarrasses him in front of the global audience. that is why we are not seeking actual buying. we are seeing rumors of state entities buying. it is unclear to me if they will really step in with the cash that the market is expecting. paul: andrew collier, managing director at orient capital research. we want to check in on some of the oil stocks trading in the asia-pacific. a rare bright spot on the markets. we have inpex up by 1%. energy is the only positive sector in japan at the moment. crude prices have also rallied. oil up on china stimulus. u.s. stockpiles falling and the ongoing tension in the red sea supporting energy stocks in asia at the moment. plenty more to come on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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annabelle: taking a look at some of the movers so far. 45 minutes into the session in japan. renée sauce is the company -- renesas is a company that is off nearly 7%. after the bell yesterday,

hitachi announced plans they would be seeking to raise a total of 2.1 billion dollars selling off stakes in renesas. the terms of the deal seen by bloomberg is that they would be selling them for up to ¥2500 aps representing a discount of 6%-8% of the -- to the thursday closing price. japanese equity markets active since last year because companies as shareholders are seeking to advantage taking -- taking advantage. renesas one of the movers. looking at asian chip related share is. we had intel issuing a disappointing forecast after the bell today. the company said sales in the first quarter will be up to $13.2 billion.

the estimate was about a billion dollars higher. intel is think they could be the peak for the first quarter. concerns because intel is struggling to defend one's -- what was once a dominant position in data centered chips. chipmakers under pressure so far. paul: let's have a look at some of the other corporate stories. lvmh sales rose at the end of last year in a sign of resilience that the world's largest luxury conglomerate including louis vuitton jumped 9% in the fourth quarter. organic sales rose and topped estimates. the cfo sees the business normalizing after a post-pandemic boom here china sell shares in private market deals. shein, the firm achieved roughly

66 billion in last year's fundraising. sellers are struggling to find buyers. shein is battling intensifying competition and regulatory scrutiny. jp morgan's ceo is moving some of his top lieutenants into new senior roles including moving jennifer to oversee the investment bank alongside troy. jamie dimon prepares potential successors. a brazilian judge has ordered bmp to pay damage is caused by a 2015 disaster. the resolution that the damages would help ease the legal uncertainty hanging over the company. that contaminated waterways into brazilian states. annabelle: porsche says its new

ev was so popular in the u.s. that it won't be able to keep up with demand. it has just unveiled an electric version. we spoke exclusively to the north america ceo tim about what he expects from the new model. >> we are pretty sure that the launch of the electric -- that we will not be able to cope with the demand definitely in the first year. a lot of people are waiting for a product like this. this comes at a stage with the combustion engine is having its most successful year. there is high demand for the existing platform and i think a lot of people are looking for this new, latest technology that does everything. the model already has going for it to a higher degree. for that reason i feel positive about it. and i think we will see what the

real relationship between the versions will be. in the first year i think it is just customer demand driven and what we can supply from our factory in germany. >> your -- you are supply constraints. you know demand will outweigh your supply. when you are phoning your counterparts in germany, how much supply can they guarantee you for the first year or? -- first year? >> i cannot go into details but we are driven by providing one car less then what the market is asking for. this is our flexibility in terms of our production pipeline. having both of these cars coming out of our factory in leipzig, that gives us the possibility to custom tailor our supply chain to the demands. i'm sure we will hit the right supply balance.

and there will be more demand in the first few months than we can supply. >> who are you worried about out there? the cyber truck? it is a expensive model that goes to the high net worth individual or a big spender or are you worried about the electrified offerings from some of your german peers like mercedes? >> in terms of design, appeal and technology, we as porsche can usually have a lot of people stop being convinced and being excited. we see a lot of opportunities to get the porsche family growing but at the same time get existing porsches -- porsche fans excited. there is a lot of opportunity and it is still growing the market.

so people can have the feeling for what the porsche product is about. >> america was critically important to porsche in 2023 in part because china's growth was decelerating. i think porsche said 2024 would be difficult in china. what kind of pressure are you under to keep the growth going in the united states, north america more broadly when a key market like china is slowing down? >> being responsible for the north american market i would like to focus on these topics. the overall balance of distribution -- the porsche brand is perfectly balanced in terms of its international distribution of sales. this is a great time to see that there is not such a huge dependency on the chinese market as there might be for other brands. we see the brand being in a good position. we have high desirability.

and for that reason i also see good possibility to continue on this growth pattern of sustainable growth in the united states or the north american market. driven by customer demand, that will continue the success story. paul: that is the porsche north america ceo. coverage continues on "daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

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annabelle: we are just about a half an hour away from the start of trade in hong kong and mainland china. david and glaze is joining us. three days of -- david i ngles is joining us. three days of gains. >> let's say we get a lucky four, there is some science. take it with a grain of salt. this is not nasa-esque algorithm or telemetry. we are using the methodology where we are looking at the

individual price targets for each hang seng china index stock we are getting a consensus and then we are implying an index upside for 12 months and we are assuming that is correct. that is about 47% over the next 12% -- over the next 12 months and we assume there is another 47% on top of that. and the date currently is july 26, 2026. we will need to be patient. paul: what has caught your eye in what has been a pretty eventful week? david: what has caught my eye is not sleep. three days of gains. we probably won't get a day four. we are looking at several perhaps events that could move the needle. you're looking at a market

metric of volumes and turnover. nearly 900 billion won. there is also a ministry of commerce briefing where we could get something following the pboc briefing that we got in the session. annabelle: that was david, bloomberg markets coanchor. that is it from "daybreak: asia ," leaving you with the outlook. lucky four does not appear to be appearing. setting up for a little bit of weakness across the board. ♪

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david: good morning and hopefully