>> we are 30 minutes into the u.s. trading down this friday, january 26. shake it off. stocks fighting to go green, and we will get a read on restaurants and the state of inflation and climbing food prices with michael osanloo, the ceo of portillos. an robert rubin warns the u.s. is in "a terrible place." we will have more, coming up.

katie: i'm katie greifeld in new york. welcome to bloomberg markets. you have an s&p 500 fighting and failing to go green. we are down by less than .1% but we'll see how we settle up. big tech having the worst day, down .5%, coming back to the intel results we got earlier. that leads me to the stoxx index, down by 2.4% right now, intel taking a bite right there and leading the industry down lower. spirit airlines, that saga continues. jetblue warning today that the merger deal could be terminated, sending spirit shares down to the tune of 16% or so. let's go back to the stoxx and intel, because intel taking a tumble today after a disappointing forecast on yesterday's earnings call. sales and profits came in under wall street estimates.

jackie, it seems like it's the outlook here that is spooking investors. jackie: that's right. it overshadowed a very healthy report. you had sales projected to come in between 12.2 billion dollars and $13.2 billion, but wall street was expecting $14.3 billion. that is over a billion dollar miss at the middle range. profits came in projected at $.13 a share, but wall street was expecting $.34. remember, there autonomous vehicle technology company that has reported it will see fewer sales this quarter and into the year, because you are dealing with the stockpile in that technology that is rattling the industry broadly. intel taking the hit there, in addition to the slowdown in its pajama -- programmable

chips unit. now, pat gelsinger tried to allay some of these concerns on the conference call, saying the headwinds were temporary and that he expects sales to recover and see positive growth over the course of the year, but that is not making much of a difference as we see the stock performed today. katie: intel really tumbling, and we appreciate the reporting there. jackie dhaba -- davalos. pat gelsinger will join bloomberg technology's at 11:20 new york time. let's get an overview of the market with chris murphy, cohead of derivative strategy at susquehanna, you look at the broader index of the s&p 500 ended is lower, but you think about what we got from tesla and intel, and it seems

like there is a resilience that is sticking by. chris: hey, katie. a lot of resilience, and some of the economic numbers we have got in the last couple of days point towards a soft landing. one thing to keep in mind during earnings season and what we are seeing in general is low correlation among s&p components. you have a situation where stocks are moving on their own specific earnings merits, news, things like that. you end up moving the components in different directions, but the underlying s&p ends up not moving that much. we have had five straight all-time highs, but it has been very incremental moves higher. that is the backdrop we are looking at with the s&p. katie: we started the week with amy lou silverman from r&b, and

she says if you think about the big tech rally we saw last year as opposed to this year, you are not seeing the scramble for upside call bids, etc., not the same sense of fomo in this market. chris: when people were under invested and offsides and some of these names and trying to catch up via buy-in calls, they are full in that area of the market. they might be under exposed in things like small caps, energy, or whatever else, but in terms of the options market, it does seem to indicate that investors have their positions, where not seeing as much reaching through upside, because so many are offside there. katie: let's talk about where reaching has been going on.

it is interesting to see them come back for chinese equities, i keep a close eye on etf's like fxi. when we saw chinese equities as well, we saw people trying to tie in the bottom and maybe you are seeing that again it now? chris: part of it is trying to time the bottom, and then you have to think about where is the positioning. it is not in china. people have moved out of that sector and it is very under exposed there. you are seeing a lot of call activity. we have seen it in a number of times, an uptick in call volume, to see china move lower again. might be different if you look back at a one plus year chart, the highest call volumes we have seen in a long time in that area. not necessarily, i am super bullish on china read from the

options, but i am not exposed to china and if it does rebound, it is not another pump fake. i need to be there for sure to make sure my exposure ramped up with the stock ramps up. katie: you live in the derivatives world and i live in the etf world. an interesting trend that has emerged is so much demand for covered call strategies. i want to know your perspective, what is the impact down the roof -- and the ripple effects in that strategy? chris: volatility selling has been more effective in the last couple of years, so it is going to gain assets and become a more popular trade. when we are seeing volatility selling, that will impact the

broader market. when we look at the correlation story again, low correlation in the s&p. volatility in the macro level, not getting as much bang for your buck as a few years ago. i would look at selling volatility on a single stock basis. that is more attractive. with etf's and other vehicles for investors to be able to show volatility? it's great to get that access. if you zoom back long-term, selling insurance, selling volatility, that is a profitable business. you think about the insurance sector in the broader economy. over time, selling insurance is profitable. you have to be able to whether occasional storms, but when we are looking at volatility buying more recommending that to our

clients, we recommend that on a more tactical basis than getting things that we think are choosy. but selling volatility is something great that people have access to. katie: chris, don't go anywhere. you are sticking with us, but let's take a look at the stocks moving right now, some interesting sell side notes we have gotten today. billy lips all listed in beside me -- what is going on? billy: an interesting, -- comment, the fact that the stock was down 33% from a december 28 hi. i know you are a crypto and katz fan -- i don't know if cats trade crypto, but that is what we are seeing with coinbase rallying this morning, optimism about the entire spce.

katie: it is getting upgraded now. coinbase has fallen to start the year but was up 400% last year. bailey: you take advantage on the dip. it could prevail in the sec lawsuit and you have the spot etf's now trading and some of those outflows from grayscale. that's one thing that is propping up bitcoin. katie: there is a divide in the analyst community as to whether spot etf -- but bitco ion etf's are good for them. bailey: snap is on a 12 month basis, pretty strong up end to the right. it is down 80% from a late 2021 high, so this call from deutsche

bank saying it is looking at what snapchat is implementing and growth is expected to mimic 2023 performance in touting ai impact. if you talk ai, everyone will be excited. katie: it's interesting to see with the companies have to say. at meta and alphabet reporting next week. we had visa yesterday, and it seems like that is being welcomed with open arms. bailey: it was, but with great shareprice comes great expectations. they are calling out the weakness, according to analysts, january trends clouding the results. seasonal weakness paired with weather weakness, people not wanting to go out. analysts are saying that is a transitory risk and will not play out in this quarter, but one reason that it is down -- closing at an all-time high

yesterday, beating expectations, a 2% pullback is nothing to be concerned about. katie: bailey, have a great weekend. bailey lipschultz. americans are still spending -- american express beating analyst estimates and painting a great picture for 2024. we will discuss our highlights with the amex ceo, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ katie: a positive sign about the u.s. consumer, american express out with earnings today and the company says it is sticking to its long-term profit and revenue goals, forecasting earnings for

2024 that topped analyst estimates. caroline hyde spoke to the ceo earlier today, and joins us now. i imagine he was in a good mood. caroline: he is always in a good mood. he is feeling really strong. the momentum they saw in the third and fourth order will continue into the 2024 year in terms of the resilience of their clients. the customer base is not the economy and not a direct reflection, it is a higher tier. we will see better abilities to pay down their debts, and that they are very in control of how much they are having to set aside in terms of credit losses. the consumer is still resilient, and he felt positive about the momentum within the spending in amex. we might have missed the odd consensus report for the fiscal fourth-quarter, but because of argentina, a big devaluation. but that's our business models

resilience. if we can take a $100 billion hit and post such great results, he is pretty confident. katie: you have to wonder how many businesses could take a hit like that and still do well. this is a big week for the cards. visa also coming out. compare and contrast what we heard from amex versus visa? caroline: there is more concern about visa in the longer-term. even though we saw single or from a -- a similar run-up, we are now seeing some weakness. visa, we are seeing some of the investor base being worried about the resilience of this fiscal january they are seeing, punting out -- pointing out that some of their momentum may have slowed down. remember, this is a slightly different consumer base. it is not the high-end or a platinum card user, visa has the

breadth of the u.s. economy. we think about how the high-end luxury companies are still outperforming some of the others. i think there is more about concern about visa. katie: and every company has to talk about ai. caroline: especially for a technology show. katie: what is the amex staff saying about ai? caroline: whether or not it is the way in which they are thinking of it for cybersecurity, but he is saying from a jobs perspective, he is not making big job cuts, he never does, but the reorientation of his colleagues. he says i don't see them eliminating positions per se, but i do see it limiting the growth of hiring. if i can get better customer experience on the amex app using

generative ai than a real person, he does not have to hire so much into the business model. katie: a fascinating conversation, great to break it down with you. you can catch caroline hyde in about \ 40 minutes or so, bu let's welcome back chris murphy, head of derivatives strategy at susquehanna. let's start with one of the biggies, amazon. when you get into the weeds of the options market, howard traders positioning for this one? chris: they want to buy the dip but be involved if it keeps moving higher. one options trade that stuck out -- 2, 2 that stuck out to me this week. a near-term call spread buyer, what are they looking for there? they don't want to spend a lot of money, why they are doing the spread as opposed to buying calls outright, and they have

amazon moving higher on earnings. that was a clear-cut trade that we saw. in the flipside, we are seeing a consistent amount of put selling. what does that mean? they would love to add more of these stocks if they do selloff, or they missed the rally and want exposure lower. we are seeing foot sellers setting up a lower they would love to pullback, but they mostly are bullish with the options side. we are not seeing a lot of hedging of this event. katie: maybe that is good news, i guess we will find out in a couple of days, but next week is fun because in addition to a bunch of earnings, 16.8 trillion dollars in market cap

reporting next week alone, and the jobs report on friday, followed by caterpillar taking the stage. you write in your notes, there is an interesting history when those stars lineup. chris: we looked at caterpillars options earlier this week. it is an industrial stock with a lot of exposure to those macro events. it has been moving more recently than the options have been pricing in. through a derivative daily know my partner sends out, he highlighted that and thinks it is a pretty easy, short strategy. it is one of those things, we don't necessarily know if caterpillar will go higher or lower. we leave that up to our analysts or clients, but the options look

a little cheap. katie: if you put this together, it might be a good time to potentially scoop up some of that insurance. chris: if you have exposure in caterpillar, it looks like they have an opportunity with those options. that is what we are highlighting to our clients right now. katie: and not just talking out -- about a specific name or stock, but the sector as a whole. what typically is the best strategy there? chris: we are not always pushing protection. we do like to look at it tactically. what happened the first month of the year, typically at an etf, if you want a macro hedge. you set it between the apple mcu, the -- the apple --, the

earnings, and the market looks a bit tired here. we are looking at the next week. 4.20, 4.10 spread. we do think those who have been riding the wave higher in mega cap tech, this is a good time to look at the short-term hedge given the events next week. katie: that wraps back to what you were saying earlier, it seems like the stocks are moving off their own fundamentals rather than all together as a group. does that typically happen around earnings periods or something unique we are seeing right now? chris: both. it typically happens around earnings season, but it is much more right -- more

extreme right now. this is what the market is expecting to happen going out six months to a year. the options market is telling us , we expect this low correlation pickers stock market to continue throughout the year. we typically do see correlation, but i think it is much more extreme then we have seen in the last 10 to 15 years. katie: chris, we enjoyed this conversation. good luck, chris murphy of susquehanna. let's check back in on the drama between spirit and debt blue. spirit slumping after jetblue warned that it steel may be terminable -- its deal may be terminable, and spirit is now responding. spirit, it is a clear message,

shares down 17% right now. we will continue to follow that story, and take a look at the headlines making the most social buzz today in our social climate sector, up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie: time for social climbers, look at the stocks making waves on social media. first up, until delivering a disappointing earnings forecast -- intel delivering a disappointing earnings forecast and t-mobile missing fourth-quarter earnings, but strides in news subscribers. and lvmh surpassing estimates as wealthy shoppers treated themselves to pricey handbags and champagne.

you can find all of that on your bloomberg terminal. coming up, a read on the rest aurant industry with michael get help with j.p morgan personal advisors. hey, david! ready to get started? work with advisors who create a plan with you, and help you find the right investments. so great getting to know you, let's take a look at your new investment plan. ok, great! this should have you moving in the right direction. thanks jen. get ongoing advice; and manage your investments in the chase mobile app. personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. -you can make this work. -we can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about.

katie: eli lilly was late to the drug business behind novartis but the new shot is expected to be the best selling drug of all time. >> when i look around i can't help but wonder is stkoepl ozempic right for me. it 2022 it started entering the consciousness. >> it is great for people boss parents cannot cook. >> the biggest corporate beneficiary of the pop larry is their company with $450 billion

but a new contender entered the ring. eli lilly has a competing drug and looks to be more effective and keeper. it set off a horse race between these two to see who will take the biggest part of it enormous market. >> in 2019 they traded at comparable levels to the rest of the pharma industry. since june of 2021 when it was approved the stock evaluation have soared tracking with companies such as apple on how much they are likely to grow the next few years. the market was worth $2.5 billion in 2022. we might it could be in excess of $80 billion by 2030 because we have two competitors in the space and it will make the whole market bigger. katie: that was a look at eli

lilly's foray into the business. we have the fast daschle restaurant brand that started it 1963. the first question is on weight loss drugs the ozempic effect is what it is called. is that overblown or have you seen any impact on your business if >> i think it is totally overblown. it is a fun narrative to propose but i don't see any impact on our business and i have had 100 people ask me the question and it is not happening. this could be more of a coastal thing than midwest heartland thing. katie: i won't belabor the point. let's talk about food prices. you look at feed prices and

cattle prices they are surging cattle prices close to an all-time high. how are you navigating that and we do you think things will stabilize? >> we are already seeing some signs of stability going forward. one thing we do is try to buy whatever price is at a certain window and we have been forward buying a little bit. we have a great hedging program. but honestly i think we feel optimistic that the prices will mitigate over the back half of the year and we will not see inflation as bad as the past few years. katie: i want to talk about hedging more. you stalled bloomberg news in august you had hedged more than 2/3 of your meat needs in 2023. >> it is less now because we are optimistic on the back half of the year but we're fairly well covered the first half.

>> fairly well covered right now but even with those hedges in place is there a rick you will need to raise prices when you think of the geopolitical tensions supplying chains? >> the reality is we don't know until you know. we have been living in a very volatility environment the past seven years. i would prefer not to raise prices but you don't know. we will see. i think that our value proposition is incredibly important and we are at a sweet spot right now with our consumers in terms of what we provide the quantity and abundance and quality and price point. so, gosh, i don't want to price unless it is absolutely necessary. katie: you don't know until you know. that is true of many things. you have also mentioned tight supplies for onions, french fries. how is that panning out, and what are you doing about it?

>> those things have improved. the potato crop was better, the onion ring crop was better. we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel in terms of french fries, onion wrings, almost all the commodities we feel more optimistic about them. katie: when i look at the end of my tunnel i often see french fries so i totally understand what you are saying. your stock price is down 17% the last year. what do you think traders are missing about your story? >> i think we are getting caught up in some of the pessimism with interest rate fluctuation. if you look at us versus the russell 2000 it is the same volatility small and midcap stocks are seeing. i think everyone is worried about interest rates. we are a self-funding company and we are a little unusual than

a growth company our restaurants are cash flow positive and we have plenty of cash to build all the restaurants we want so we are not relying on external markets for -- needs. if investors think about that that this is a company with a ridiculous amount of white space, very profitable box economics, and sever financing -- self-financing that is a unicorn in the restaurant industry. katie: let's talk about expansion here because i will notah you are expanding in areas such as the sun belt, states chug texas, arizona, florida. on the show the past week we had interesting conversations about the real estate market and typically they are about how high mortgage rates are and impossible it is to buy a house right now but when it comes to expanding in a commercial business how has that been faring? >> it is actually great because we are going to high growth

states but also states and places where there's a lot of development with cranes going up and new development. we have access to wonderful real estate. now, the other thing that is unique about us given our footprint and size of restaurants we are not typically competing against fast cash or q.s.r. restaurants for space. we compete against more like casual dining or car washes. car washes like two plus acres is bad we like and we go head to head with them for real estate. katie: wasn't expecting that with car washes. next week we have the jobs report and one of the interest things about this economic cycle is how tight the labor market has been with the fed hiking rates. what has that month for your own hiring efforts? >> it has forced us to really live what i believe is a form of

unlightened capitalism. we have been hiring it denton, texas. we had 400 people apply for jobs the first couple hours because we are paying significantly above minimum wage. we are trying to create a fantastic work environment for team members who love working for us and great values and embody them and my investors are thrilled because it pays for itself in reduced turnover and reduced training cost and retention. i think that smart companies that are doing things like that that generally -- genuinely invest in people will benefit. >> you are looking for ways to optimize operation and increase efficiency. i think ai when i read that. >> it is funny because we are certainly using ai in provocative ways. we have deployed a new staffing

model because the restaurant business you are busy, you are slow, you are busy, so we are using ai in helping us staff our restaurants. every restaurant is a little unique in demand flow but we are help being the general managers by deploying tools like auto scheduling so the machine learning tells you when to schedule and where. it is paying dividends. katie: got to leave it here. really enjoyed this conversation. he is support -- portillo's c.e.o. >> stocks are higher. we were looking at the possibility of the first down day but the s&p 500 is up slightly and nasdaq is down weighed down by intel but it will be a race to the end of the day. on the week s&p 500 up more

than 1% and van guard energy e.t.f. the best day since october of -- the best week i should say since october of 2023 and to the down side home construction down 2.3% and discretionary index down with tesla down 1.8%. overall for, we are seeing a lot of beef. technology right now we have 94% of companies beating the bottom lane estimate and we will have big names next week and week after. communications which is interesting because that is part of the mega cap just 20% there but a pretty good scorecard for earnings. katie: and it is early so maybe communications will catch up. coming up we will hear from robert ruben about why he

believes that the u.s. is in a terrible place with regard to its federal deficit. this is bloomberg. (grunting) at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

katie: we are diving into the current debt and deficit with robert ruben who talked about what he learned in the white house in 1993 and if they can be applied today. >> i think that the risks that we identified then the multiple risks are about the same as they are today. i think they are greater today because our debt to georgia d.p.

ratio is about 100% is the highest in the history of the country except 1946 and 1947 coming out of world war ii. some of them are materializing like higher rate not in full but others haven't materialized but i think they are out there and will if we don't correct the fiscal trajectory. >> you talked about forces you saw in 1993 that pointed you and president clinton to make it a special issue. are we seeing those indicators in the market today? >> i think we are seeing the effect but it is unfortunately from a political point of view. i don't think they are getting connected in a meaningful way with deficit reduction. sure the 10-year was about 1.5% say two years ago and now 4.5%. there's a lot of facts in that but part is the fiscal situation and effect on inflation. it has been a aggravated

situation and fact on inflation. i think there's a general concern about the imbiological between supply and demand for savings and excess demand created by our deficits. but it is not -- unfortunately from a political point of view i don't think the dots are being connected the way in 1993 we acted but fine 92 we president clinton was putting the plan together. >> there's talk about the neutral rate and is it higher and i guess my question is, does the deficit and debt normally -- all things being equal, driver the neutral rate higher? >> i think over time. but you can have a long period of time and we had a long, long period of time during which all of this was having little effect. then all of a sudden the 10-year went from roughly 1.5 to 4.5 and

i have been around markets for five decades and they are periods when you have a long time when reality is -- what is happening is out of receiving with reality but that doesn't go on forever and when it corrects it can correct savagely. a good example was the sovereign eurozone. for years they were in parity with german bonds then exploded and i think it is a good example of how what isn't sensible ultimately doesn't continue. >> there's the politics of it but let's talk about the approach taken to t. let's talk about the biden administration, we can talk about the trump administration but the biden administration we were there you game from goldman sachs and you knew others that few the markets pretty well and there was a dose of how the market reacts to this. do we still have that or is it more ideologically driven because some think we have

shifted more toward protectionism and populism. >> i have given a had the of view to this. if you look at the proposals -- but i want to respond to something -- i will get to that in a second. if you look at the page policy proposals president biden made they were all paid for in the promises. now, ultimately they had to go through congress and then came out some of them paid for and some not. i thinks actually pretty good on it. i think the other issue i might have a different view tan he does or maybe i would an altered view but on fiscal stuff he has a good sense. on the promises they had three major bills, ira, chips and infrastructure and before that build back better. if you look the promises are

fully paid for and congress some cases at the lost. i forgot how you put it but populism or -- >> populism. >> if you look at industrial policy and it is their label but it is not picking winners and losers. it may be in the minds of some of those people but if you look at their proposals i think they make a lot of subpoenas on a purely economic basis. they basically dealt with insecurities in our system with respect it our economic security and functioning that markets had to be met by government. that i think is not industrial policy in a traditional sense, it was less fill holes at that time private sector isn't filling and those are economic

and national security. >> so the overall approach you don't tack were issue with so how do we end up with increasing deficits and debts. >> what i talked about, i think we are in a terrible place because unfortunately once you get to legislating there isn't the will -- there's a lot of tack but the talk is always divided politically between the republicans who refuse it raise taxes and democrats who won't deal with entitlements. i think there was a reality to this and when we get to doing this or if we do it after the physician election which the good lord would hop we will but i wouldn't bet on it, about 16% of the increase in the debt from 2000 to 2022 was because of the tax cuts. so if not for that the didn't instead of being 100% it would be about 60%.

norway to look at it is what i said. what percentage of debt of g.d.p. without the tax cuts and about the same number about 63% so what happened is we had two very big tax cuts which were feature paid for so we decided not to pay for what we are spending but looking forward we have to deal with both spending and taxes and when you get real about it i think you will have to be largely on the tax side. katie: and that was robert russian former u.s. treasury secretary. tonight on wall street week we will here from the head of liquid credit. that is 6:00 p.m. eastern time. that is 6:00 p.m. eastern time. this is bloomberg. our therapists give their all each day,

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katie: let's talk about bitcoin past 41,000 as outflows are slowing down but pretty significant. joining us for this e.t.f. friday, james maybe you can do some myth busting. seems like the outflows have been blamed for a lot of price action until today in bitcoin. >> there's been outflows but on a net basis the new spot bitcoin e.t.f.'s have taken in money. that could change the coming week because they are seeing outflows but there seems to be a misconception that flows into our out are the way prices change. nobody seems to worry about this with equities or fixed income but people think that is what is

happening with bitcoin but there are other players or like e.t.f.'s are a larger piece of the pie of supply and demand. if you look at open interest and futures there's been more money that has come out of open interest and futures than has gone into the spot bit contingent e.t.f.'s and a little out of capped,and or piano bitcoin. so it looks like a little positive info as you take out the futures. katie: we are talking about outflow and 4.8 billion dollars in outflows so far and as you know well a lot of this was expected. what is the estimate for how much more we could see? >> before we really knew exactly where they would be coming i thought it would be more competitive and my estimate was

25%. we are currently 18% redeemed shares so we are not at that number. some were thinking 50%. any number i throw you is a complete guess. if you asked a month ago i would have thought 25% because a lot of bankruptcy estates hold significant capital in shares including grayscale and other institutions so i mean we are 18%, still at 25 i probably have to raise it a third but i think people are underestimating how sticky capital can be in funds like this. people think everyone is paying attention to bad is going on and will pull the money immediately but time will tell. katie: have a great went. be sure to tune into bloomberg e.t.f. is i.q. before that we have the intel c.e.o. with caroline hyde and ed

ludlow next. this is bloomberg. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

sir: -- announcer: from silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology, with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york. ed: and i am also in the big apple. this is "bloomberg technology." caroline: intel plunges after disappointing investors with its forecast. the results. ed: alphabet, amazon, and microsoft facing ftc probes about partnerships with ai com