>> good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie, and these of the story to tell your agenda. a risk cognitive markets as fears of bank loan losses are reunited and jay powell pours cold water on the rate cuts next month. >> i don't think it is likely the committee will reach a level of competence by the march meeting to identify march is the time to do that, but that is to be seen. tom: the bank of england's next up with expectations of a core inflation forecast potentially opening the door to guidance on using. earnings season rolls on with european banks taking center stage, and deutsche bank says it will cut 3500 jobs. we will bring you the numbers work bmp and julius baer.

the red head as her mother's job cuts, but the buyback would always begin focus for analysts, and the detail is coming through with 675 million euros being outlined in terms of plans for a buyback. the q4 was amiss for deutsche bank in terms of what this all in terms of tech sales and trading revenue coming in low estimates. net revenue in the fourth quarter missing in terms of estimates coming in at 6.6 billion euros. the estimates had been for 6.8 billion. we hear from the cfo later this hour. that interview 6:30 a.m. london time. we will also bring you the latest in terms of earnings coming through from the dutch financial company ing with the redhead crossing out and the focus is on the net interest

income given expectations rates will be moving lower for the ecb. coming in below estimates, it is a missing terms of net interest income for ing with 3.88 billion euros coming through. the estimate had been for 4 billion euros. in terms of topline it is a bead of the estimates for the fourth quarter for ing but i miss when it comes to net interest income. bnp paribas in france, net income is a ms. for the french lender. there was a focus as well in the retail part of the business, equities rating. there had been expectations equity trading would come through. net income topline 1.7 billion euros, below estimates and significantly below the estimates of 2 billion euros. putting aside loan loss provisions, an increase of 40%

year on year. in terms of what came through from fixed sales and trading revenue, that was amiss, editor 61 million euros. when it comes to commercial equities trading, an increase, 70% year on year with revenues coming through of 658 euros. net income a significant ms.. we will be speaking to the cfo later. that interview at 7:00 yucatan. we move on to julius baer where we have seen change at the top just in the last 12 hours. the ceo stepping down, confirmation now from the swiss lender because of the connections and exposure to a property empire as well and they had that is taken for julius baer, which has been focused on scrutiny from regulators. 500 and 6 million swiss francs

in terms of loss allowances on the private that part of the business. they will be winding down the remaining private debt book just around one billion swiss francs. they miss in terms of full year net inflows missing estimates. let's check in on markets because it was a big day for the fed. they came through the decision, they held pat but jay powell did push expectations of a much got. we have had six days of gains for european stocks, but it seems a breather coming through as we count down to the next central-bank decision, the bily. ftse 100 futures pointing lower. s&p futures pointing to gains of 10%. the worst that decision day for the s&p since march of last year. nasdaq futures also took a hit. let's look cross asset and start

with the front-end of the yield curve. the u.s. two year. you saw movement on the back of the statement coming through, but those concerns about real estate as well in the u.s. and what he could do for the banking space meant yields it actually come down in the session yesterday. 4.24. the pound down .2 of 1% as we count down to the boe decision. brent up .2 of 1% at $80. the fed has held interest rates steady for a full meeting. jay powell threw water on investors hopes that reductions would begin in march. >> we want to see more good data. it is looking for greater confidence that inflation is moving down to 2%. we believe that our policy rate is at its peak. if the economy evolves it would likely be appropriate to begin back policy rate.

i do not think it is likely the committee will reach a level of competence by the time of the march meeting. we are planning to begin in-depth discussions at our balance sheet ending in march. we are not declaring victory at all. we think we have a way to go. tom: let's bring in joel disses -- jill disis. >> he has tried to tell you it is not coming in march. i think at this point we have been talking for weeks on this program about how much of a divergence there is been between investor expectations for when the first interest rate cut is going to come versus what the fed has actually been communicating, and power and other fed officials, we have seen a lot of fed speak since the last meeting in september that it will not be immediate. this is a data-dependent situation.

this is still a difficult balance for the fed to ultimately reach year, because what they are trying to do is have these expectations, try to say we have seen some of the data, but it is showing inflation is schooling but we are not white ready there to make those cuts. i think what else we got out of the fed yesterday was the softening of the some of the language in the policy statements, the idea of moving away from more of the hawkish bias toward something indicating that something is likely cutting this year. i think the pullback that you saw shows that investors are reprising the idea that something is coming in march, but you did see a follow-up there. you saw it investors reset their bets may be something a little later. some economists are pointing toward a may is a possibility, so we will see what happens. tom: let's conservative asian and get a view on how markets

are shaping up. avril hong standing by in singapore. avril: it is very interesting, the interpretation depending on which as a class were talking about for asian fx. they are climbing focusing on the fact that the rate cycle is come to an end. equities and austrian stocks into gauge of stocks lower today. it is interesting and a role reversal how the chinese equities are the ones capping losses on the gauge after that finance minister talked about fiscal support, talked about how the focus for china will be tech and chips were favorable policies and chinese textures boosted today. we are also seeing a japanese lender, a stock we have focused on closing today slipped by the daily limit 20% after it chucked investors and analysts saying it is expecting 190 million dollar

loss versus it's expectation of profit due to its exposure to the u.s. real estate market. chinese tech stocks are the ones coming today, and one of them we have been watching is alibaba. during the lunch break we got news it is mulling a sale of its department store arm, and we have seen a reaction in the stock today. tom: excellent, thank you much indeed. coming up, the bank of its first rate decision. we will get a preview of that, the focus turning to the forecast. get the details in the analysis. the swiss industrial conglomerate reporting fourth-quarter earnings that slightly missed estimates. i will be speaking to our guest. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back, the bank of england is expected to keep interest rates on hold at 5.25%, with expectations of cut cementing. governor andrew berry will have a tricky balancing act in his communications around the decision. to for the review is lizzy burden. >> i would take a look at the boat split because if the committee goes for a cut today history suggest if you look back across the 14 changes than right direction since the mpc's inception in 1997 there would be two meetings before the rest of the majority of the committee follow their lead and we an actual cut. bloomberg economics recommends -- reckons you could see a three-way split.

you have stubborn services inflation, which growth and disruption in the red sea. the other thing i will be watching is the guidance. do they drop the language about the need for further tightening, to stay restrictive for an extended period. that could see as dropping the hawkish bias and if they do not do that it could be a step of the rest of markets forgetting carried away with the rate cutting beds, but it gives you the bank of england allergic to the rate cuts and combine that with looser fiscal policy, you could see the pattern going all the way to $1.30. we have not been to that level for two years. tom: we look around the hawkish language and whether that moves the markets. lizzy burden will be outside with fantastic guests. let's bring in the managing partner and head at chatham

house. let's start with a view around the language change, possible language change for the bank of england. do you think that they do push back or at least drop their views of the communication around hawkish stance? to they started to prepare the markets for softening in rhetoric and potential cuts have not at the next meeting that at some point in the second half of the year? >> that would be quite a shift if the language was that much of a change. there is certainly an expectation just as lizzie said there would be a focus on how the boat split goes, and that will be used as a prediction as to when the rate cut might come. very similar to the fed last night, central banks are trying to dampen down the market expectations for how quickly those rate cuts will come, so i think there is diligence the bank of england will stick for longer statement today. tom: the markets are currently

pricing in 100 basis points of cuts with the first cut being priced in fully in june. does that align with your view? does that seem rational at this point? >> the other part that will impact when that first rate cut will come is the bank of england's own forecast. compared to the markets the u.k. inflation has been slightly stickier than let's say in the u.s. if we look back at where the bank of england were forecasting for cpi to be, it is below the headline rate at the mormon -- moment. depending on where they come out on the forecast for the cpi number will give us a better indication as to how soon the first rate cut will arrive. tom: how do you see the inflation picture evolving for the u.k. this year? do you think it is reasonable to think 2% would be in view by this year? >> strictly of u.s. that

question three months ago it did not look so likely, but just in some of the headline numbers we have stated recently it looks more achievable than it was a been just a few months ago. clearly there are still risks of shocks coming in. we have an issue in the red sea with the shipping, and that can feed through into the inflation, but in terms of big headline cpi numbers it is moving in the right direction. tom: we saw goldman sachs upgrading their views for the next few years for the u.k. precisely because the markets are pricing and lower rates. does that seem like a position? are we going to see further resilience, a little more of an uptick in the growth picture if not this year at least in 2025 and 2026 as we see slightly less policy coming through? >> you have to remember there is quite a big lead between changes in interest rates and how that starts to impact the economy,

but the other point that lizzie highlighted is in this election year the u.k. has a budget coming up in the spring, and there is an expectation there could be some giveaways from the tax perspective, which will feed through into the growth numbers. i would say to not get too carried away, while talk of recession is dissipating slightly, it is not gung ho growth at all into 2025. tom: jackie bauer on what to look for when it comes to the bank of england. those inflation and growth forecast expected to be adjusted and revised later today. stay with us for the boe decision when it happens, and for viewers in the u.k., we will have special coverage of the news conference. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: time now for terms of trade, our weekly dive into the state of globalization. this week we are focusing on the crisis in the red sea and its impact in the shipping industry. houthi attacks are no sign of stopping despite u.s. airstrikes on human. it is prompted companies to suspend transit through the vital waterway to protect their vessels and crews. we have seen lines pointing to the fact that the u.s. continues to take defensive action against some of those risks as they see them. let's bring in the secretary-general of the international chamber of commerce for review and to gauge is throughout this is impacting back crucial industry. inks for joining us. what is the extent of disruption that your members are seeing right now? what proportion of the global shipping industry is affected by

what is happening in the red sea? >> a significant number are going around the cape of good hope. 96% of ships have diverted around, so talking about dropping down to the suez canal is up 50%. a diversion adds 9000 kilometers, so we are seeing a backlog starting to build up as ships are taking longer to reach their destination, so a real significant disruption in trade and i think it will continue for some time to come. tom: you kind of touched on it there, in terms of the parts of the shipping market that are affected, is a broad-based across all different components of the market? is it energy that is particularly affected? is it the good shippers affected by this or is it broad-based? are there segments of the sector that are more effective than the nerves -- than others?

>> guess is probably the most affected. significantly container lines, but will be crucial to other traders as well. tom: is there a sense from your members that this is now the new normal in the short to medium-term, or is there an expectation things will be able to improve as you see stepped up support from the navies of the likes of the u.k. in u.s.? >> what is happening operation prosperity guardian do provide measures of security. our first objective is the safety of our crews. you want to make sure they are safe and they can go about their day-to-day lives. yeah, it is having a real effect but we are not expecting any change anytime soon, and you can see the way things are. even if there was a confidence

that security was much improved it would take some time before shipping company started to reuse the red sea, but we would like to do that because that is the shortest transit between asia and europe. tom: i think that is really important, that line you said about being hardwired in. that brings me onto what is happening in terms of freight rates, and we have seen a big spike in terms of additional transient -- transit measures they have to take on. what do you expect to see in terms of rates? are we starting to see the peak in terms of the rates? how do you see the pricing evolving over this year? >> it is difficult, but there is no doubt increased distance going on the cape of good hope eases up any spare capacity. i think they have gone up a hundred 50%, so we will have to wait and see whether it settles at some point, but that is what we are seeing at the moment.

we are in unknown territory. until we see what is happening in the security situation, what decisions are taken, but they are decisions being taken for the safety of their crews. tom: it is a factor that is somewhat and sometimes overlooked around the reporting on this. on the question of prices, is it your expectation that consumers should expect to see the inflationary impulse, the uptake as a result of what we are seeing in shipping? will that be a longer term trend you expect? >> if this goes on. i was speaking to someone yesterday. we are not talking about weeks, it is months before you have returned to normal transit. as goods take longer to get there and capacity get soaked up . tom: secretary-general of the

international chamber of shipping with a really important update in terms of disruption being seen by is a members. the shipping industry as a result of interruptions in the red sea and what it could mean for prizes but also the safety of crews. deutsche bank fourth-quarter earnings are out, the german lender announces a 695 million euro buyback and says it will cut 3500 jobs. our interview with the cfo is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. these are the stories that set your agenda. a risk off mood in markets as fears of bank loan losses are reignited. cold water on rate cuts like -- next month. >> i don't think it's likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the march meeting to identify march as the time to do that. that's to be seen. tom: the bank of england is up next with expectations of a cooler inflation forecast, potentially opening the door to guidance on easing. earnings season rolls on with european banks taking center stage. deutsche's lifts its revenue target. it's a mixed bag of results from other banks reporting today. let's recap the details coming through. it's the forward guidance that's

more optimistic after the mist that came through from the fourth quarter, raising its midterm revenue target and saying it's going to exceed an 8 billion euro goal for shareholder payouts over the coming years. it came through with the details of the plans on the shareholder giveback. that came through from them earlier. set a target for 32 billion euros in revenue by 2025. after outperforming its previous guidance. some of the other details. trading revenue came in below the estimates at 1.5 billion euros. the estimates were 1.5 6 billion euros. oliver crook has been sitting down with the cfo of deutsche bank. take a listen to that interview. >> we've tried to establish a

baseline expectation as to where we are going. yes, our intention would be ultimately beating the 8 billion target that we set a couple years ago. we will need to take it step-by-step and be based on what we see in terms of performance and development in the early months of the year, whether there's room to expand on that repurchase. it is certainly our aim to pass along a significant amount of the additional capital we found in our outlook and talked about in the third quarter. >> what is holding you back? >> passage of time. and certainty about the future. the whole purpose of the repurchases is to allow us to distribute capital. as long as it's prudent. >> trading was difficult overall. you got again, better than the competitors. what is the outlook for trading and what are you seeing in the first month of the year? >> for us, 1% up on last year

which was a strong fourth quarter. actually encouraging. momentum is carried through into 202020 -- 2024. we had a strong january. we also think the environment now finally after two years of going backwards should be much more conducive to corporate finance activity. financing, equity deals, m&a deals. just because all of the set up conditions. >> it's not too early? >> no. it's been delayed. we thought it would be the second half of last year. of course, interest rates and uncertainty on the geopolitical side held activity back. now with rates declining, a better view of the economy and where we are going, the need to refinance against the maturities that are coming. on the strategic side, that's coming back. >> how hard is it to get it

outlook for 2024? there's a lot of discomfort about forecasting. are you confident you can hit 30 billion in revenue? >> we are. we will talk to investors about that today. we are going to up our target for the compound annual growth in revenues between 21 and 25, 5.5 and 6.5% when we talk to investors. we traveled this year at 8% and now at a component -- compound growth rate near seven. it's a continuation of the performance of the last two years. i'll be hit with a rotation from interest income driven revenue growth to more non-interest. >> all of this will be to the marching orders of the fed and the ecb. what was the interpretation of the fed last meeting? >> before i get to the monetary policy decisions, at this point we've significantly insulated ourselves from the variations of

monetary policy decisions. by hedging forward, a rate sensitivity has gone down. we also see over the coming years the much better environment for long-term rates, even now asserting itself relative to the hedges we did 10 years ago. so we do see continued momentum. >> as it relates to the central banks, it's hard to say. i think our view, our cultural or philosophical view is that inflation is on -- unhealthy for the economy so the central bank should err on the side of waiting to ensure that inflation is tamed. before taking action. of course, there's speculation. is it march, april, this summer? i think the direction of travel is clear. >> you announced some job cuts. 3500. talk to me about those. those will all be back office.

will there be a look at the investment they -- bank? >> so we have focused our efforts on what we call mom client fixing staff. there's been a significant change over the past several years around internalization of activities, the control investments we've made, the investments in technology. so having reached a level of maturity in some of these areas, i think the goal now is to drive efficiency without losing effectiveness. so yes, that's where the staff cuts are targeted. that's not an isolated thing. we are working across a range of initiatives and dimensions in the company now to really deliver on the expectations we set around expense management. >> do you think this is the end of job cuts for the time being? will there be a look at front of the house activities? >> the direction has been up. making sure that we can service

our clients and also grow our footprint. as you saw in 2020 three, their unique opportunities in the marketplace to do that. by the way, not just in our advisory business but also wealth management and corporate banks. tom: that was the deutsche bank cfo speaking to oliver crook on the back of those results. abb reported fourth quarter earnings that missed expectations. i'm joined by the chief executive. good morning and thanks for joining us talked with about. -- talk to us about the year ahead. >> i think it was a solid ending of a fantastic year. we are delighted with last year.

it is still the same pattern dominating. i think that's good. we think it was ok. >> is it those large transformational orders? will that theme continue through 2024? to what extent does the electrification part of the business continue to offset the robotics and automation parts of the business? >> yeah. it's quite clear. it's the electrification which is the strong part of the orders. yeah. i mean, we are all going through this transformation towards more sustainability and these large projects. i think it's a combination from traditional industries that are transforming and new, exciting industries coming up like carbon captures and hydrogen and so on. >> do you see the robotics part

of the business returning to the kind of strength and growth that you would ultimately wanting to be seen from the business? >> it has some headwind. it's had headwind for the last quarter, as you see. from long-term, we are optimistic when it comes to the robotic business. i said, it should be over a business cycle of 10% growth. but short-term, we see some challenges there as you can see and they are dealing with it. tom: you expect to see a slight improvement in the margins. what does that improvement look like? >> i mean, we had a separate target for about 15% for the group. this year, 16.9. of course, it's very good

achievement. 16.3 during the last quarter. we set our long financial targets between 16 and 19% with the growth of five to 7%. we believe that we can keep ourselves during this cycle, even improve the performance. business is developing in a good way. tom: when do you see the china demand coming back convincingly? >> china has been the whole year quite challenging. it varies a little bit between the different places. but china is softer. it's difficult to say when it comes back. we saw the gdp development in china last year. 5.2%. probably a little bit higher than expected. i think the expectations for next year is around 4.7. we will see how that develops. tom: there's a u.s.

congressional review into your business, your dealings with some of your partners in china. can you give us an update on how that review is unfolding and the impact on the business? >> absolutely. this is actually us selling standard software and control systems to chinese manufacturers. they are the biggest in the world. they are selling to different parts of the world. one u.s. harbor bought the cranes. after that, homeland security asked us for some information regarding software. of course, we take the request seriously. but we are not really selling chinese things into u.s.. it's more standard software to all crane manufacturers in the world. tom: are you seeing an impact from the red sea disruptions on the business? >> you know, during quite some

years, we've been trying to be regionalized. needing to strengthen our business in the different regions. we are quite self-sufficient in asia, europe, and u.s. there's not that much goods being moved between the different areas. so far, it has no material impact on our business. tom: ok. i want to get your views on the ev business. you are planning to list part of the business. we think the ipo's are a bit of softness in growth coming through from that demand around electric vehicles. are you still pursuing that ipo? >> from a strategic perspective, that's our objective. but short-term, i think there are enough challenges in the market. we are not feeling hurried to do it. we will continue to drive and develop that business internally. as you know, we have external

financial who joined us. we think we are in a pretty good position to develop that. when we see the external markets and financial markets in a better situation than today, it might be time. short-term, not. tom: really appreciate your time on the back of the earnings coming through. the chief executive speaking to us there. thank you for your time. lines crossing from sanofi, the drugmaker listed in france. just a few minutes ago, missing estimates a bid pressure coming through when it comes to fx. weaker than expected demand for the flu shot. earnings-per-share coming in at one euro 66. the estimates had been 1.7 one. coming up, eu leaders meet in brussels today. can the block convinced hungary's prime minister to

unlock a crucial 50 billion euro aid package for ukraine? that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. happy thursday. shares swung before finishing threat -- flat. the company expects only a modest recovery in 2024. sales of mobile devices may go up slightly this year after a decline across the previous 12 months. the profit and revenue for the quarter ending december both were above analyst estimates. let's get a preview of the tech earnings later today. apple expected to narrowly avoid posting its fifth straight sales declined when it reports results later. the iphone maker is one of three members of the magnificent seven due to report earnings today

along with meta-and amazon. let's bring in bloomberg's tech reporter. what will investors be looking out for it comes to the results of today? >> the thing we are looking at with apple is if they are able to buck yet another quarter of revenue decline. we've seen four quarters of straight revenue decline for apple. that qualcomm news may come as a good sign for apple because that's part of their business. it's a question for apple, there's a twofold thing. are they able to avoid revenue decline? are they making their sales targets in china? they see internal competition from the likes of huawei and restrictions from the chinese government on who can actually use apple technology. tom: a preview there of what to expect from the apple earnings. we will have an exclusive interview with someone who was

central to what's happening with artificial intelligence, the nvidia ceo later in the day. join us for that. now back to geopolitics. eu leaders are meeting in brussels today to try to find agreement on a 50 billion euro aid package for ukraine. time is running out to convince hungary's prime minister who has been blocking the funding. i am joined by maria tadeo. what is at stake today? maria: the stakes are high. when you talk to european officials, they say that this is the most crucial summit when it comes to european union relations with ukraine since the war started. the sanctions were first announced. that was almost two years ago. we know that this 50 billion euro package for the next four years for ukraine is crucial for the country because it needs about $40 billion this year just to be able to run the state budget. we know the war effort now

continuing into another year, draining the ukrainian state. this crucial aid from both the european union and the united states is key for the country. as it stands with a summit, we should probably describe it as a 26 against one. you know for the european union, this idea of unanimous decisions is something they value and cherish. they are hoping that victor or bit will give up this veto and be able to announce the deal which is already running delayed because they should've done this in december. we are here because back at christmas, he decided to veto the package. they are hoping he will take a step back. we are being told the eu will move into a 26 liter solution. it's not clear what that looks like. obviously for the eu, that would be seen as a failure. this idea of unanimity. it's also increasing the pressure.

he needs the cash from brussels. that may be an incentive to finally give up on the veto. tom: how far is he likely to push it with the eu? >> -- maria: it really comes down to the technicalities. he's always said he doesn't believe ukraine can win the war against russia. he took a meeting with vladimir putin who is sanctioned by the european union, ruffled feathers with eu leaders. also this idea that he believes more weapons or more money wont fix anything. fundamentally, ukraine cannot win. the eu takes a different line. when it comes to the package specifically, he is gone from flat out no to now saying you could potentially approve it if he gets a review. that means he would get the opportunity on an annual basis to check out the money is working. that is something that you could do that happens frequently.

it's normal to do budget reviews. he's also asking for the possibility to veto even this package if approved on an annual basis. that would make things complicated in terms of visibility for the cash out. for ukraine, it is something that eu leaders don't want. they feel we will see a repetition of the situation every year. now it's interesting, low-profile, there was a dinner yesterday. we are being told he did not participate in this dinner with european leaders. instead, he want to see farmers who are blocking this. i wish you could see and hear it. the honking from a lot of those trucks and tractors that we see today in brussels in protest from the agricultural sector. he said it shows that the eu is not working. trying to present himself as a man of the people. he doesn't meet with protesters in budapest. tom: that is ironic.

we are seeing pictures of tractors. these are live pictures of the belgian capital. maria tadeo. thank you very much indeed. plenty more coming up including a breakdown of what to expect from the fed or at least from the boe. we look at the fed pricing for march as well. a bit of a deep dive in terms of the banking sector in the u.s. and the real estate risk, coming up in the next couple of minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. new york community bancorp plunged by a record yesterday with investors worried. it's now a signifier of wider risk in the commercial real estate industry. the banks provision for loan losses search to $552 million

last quarter, more than 10 times analyst estimates. this was the move then in terms of what we saw yesterday. the bank acquire part of the signature bank last year and stockpile cash as it contends with lending risks. negative watch and may cut its rating to junk. the broader picture was, this was a wake-up call for investors about the real estate risks in the u.s., particularly with commercial real estate. office values falling 25% over the last year. banks exposed, particularly smaller lenders in the u.s., to around $500 billion of maturities linked to the real estate sector to 2025. this is a real risk. the kbw banking index falling 6% yesterday. that was the most since the silicon valley bank crisis of march of last year. yes, new york bank, community

bank putting aside additional provisions. the question is, to what extent will this reverberate more broadly across the banking sector? this is a three-day view. you see the knock for the kbw. we saw the ripple effect to the japanese banking sector earlier today. this all links to the higher rates environment as well, what's that doing -- what that's doing to the real estate sector. the fomc, really interested now in terms of the pushback that we heard from jay powell around a potential march cut. we had expectations it was about 50-50 leading into the decision. now that's been paired by traders. they are reassessing after jay powell said he thought it was unlikely that a cut would come through in march. bear that in mind in terms of the repricing around the potential march decision from the fomc, from the fed.

really interesting. the statement that they put out yesterday removed the words around the resilience of the u.s. banking system. they removed that versus the previous statement at the last meeting. that then is potentially significant. the u.s. banking system is resilient. that line removed from yesterday's statement. just to bring you back to the potential risks in the broader banking space. bank of england. that's the big central-bank decision of the day. we will be looking as well for the updates in terms of the growth and inflation forecast for the bank of england. they are expected to stand on pat with rates at 5.25%. but where the mpc lands in terms of the vote split is going to be interesting as well. the broader picture is that markets and expectations are that the boe will go far less aggressive in terms of the extent, the number of rate cuts coming through. markets pricing and for cuts from the bank of england versus

six from the fed and the ecb. part of that is down to the unique characteristics of inflation in the u.k. and the relative stickiness and resilience of this u.k. economy as well. just the outlier nature of the boe. whether that changes today will be something we are watching for. heavyweight interviews in the markets today show. bnp paribas cfo and the ceo of shell as well on the energy story. volvo cars as well. we will be speaking to executives there and the top newsmakers. that's coming up next on markets today. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> good morning from london.