tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia BLOOMBERG February 6, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EST
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sydney. markets have just come online. annabelle: i am annabelle droulers in hong kong. we are counting down to asia's major market opens. the top stories this hour. treasuries rebounding ahead of a record deal of tenure bonds with an auction of three-year notes drawing solid demand. chinese ducks rallying on bets of more forceful support from beijing. haidi: the new york community bancorp since by double digits for the fourth time in five days as concerns about real estate exposure radel regional u.s. lenders. annabelle: yum china sales beating estimates. haidi: we have breaking news and it comes to south korea's current account balance. we are being these numbers for the month of december. goods trade surplus widening. the current account surplus
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widening to $7.415 billion as well. the deficit at 2.45 billion for september, widening from the 2.21 billion dollar deficit we saw in november. we are really seeing an increase across trades and services and, of course, that headline number, this according to data just out from the back of korea. let's look at the rest of asia in terms of these markets. we saw that rebound in particular, when it comes to the barnes picture. that will play through vertically when it comes to the catch-up session for australian bonds this morning. treasuries rallying before that record 10 year bond sale. look at the set up in equities. the start of cash trading is staggered in the beginning of the session here in sydney. a bit of an upset of 0.1%. also seeing that picture across australia's three and 10-year as well.
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.65 27 for the aussie dollar. repricing against expectations from the rba, as we heard inflation fears may be starting to come down to an end. the bloomberg economics analysis saying that the rba's hikes are done. but there is uncertainty as to when we will start to see the start of easing in the next part of the cycle. across the rest of the region, kiwi stocks are up 0.25%. chicago nikkei futures a bit muted. the dollar holding pretty steady, shy of the 148 level. we saw the dollar reaching the highest since november during this week as those bets on rate cuts from the fed are getting pushed back, belle. annabelle: yes, the recalibration we continue to see in markets. to go look at some of these big moves today in after-hours trade. earnings continues to be the
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dominant theme as well for the u.s. session. took a look at ford, we saw that company beating expectations, seeing more profit growth ahead, which is interesting at the same time it is seeing ev losses. rising labor costs, it was able to offset those. . another one standing out today is yum china, jumping in post-market. this is can chinese consumers, with fast food restaurants. same-store sales beating the average analyst estimates. you can see, we will have a big yum china ceo coming up in three hours. a disappointing move in after hours for snap, not great numbers coming up from the holiday quarter. it continues to see the weakness in digital advertising. a few names we are tracking in after-hours trade, but broadly in the session, if we look at what is happening to futures
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right now, they are fairly steady so far, although we saw the move higher into the close. bonds as well, we saw them climbing following the recent selloff. it was despite what has been a continuing drumbeat of fed officials echoing jay powell's message, they are not in a rush to cut rates. here is what the fed bank of cleveland president loretta mester had to say. >> it would be a mistake to move rates down too soon or too quickly without sufficient evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path back to 2%. i think we will gain the confidence later this year, then we can begin moving rates down. annabelle: let's get more on that with our first guest, adrianne yamaki founder and financial advisor as strategic wealth capital. thank you so much for joining us this morning.
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you heard of the continued flashback we are getting from fed officials even as we continue to see assets like stocks, for instance, trading on the expectation of cuts. how much disappointment are we setting up for here? adrianne: it makes a lot of sense, if you think about the last couple of years, how quickly rates came up, it's very sensible that they are being very question us. interest -- they are still thinking they will keep it at 5.5% in march. it is very unlikely that we will have a cut. the fmc is thinking 2% for inflation, it is about 3.4%. i think it's right that there will be cautious. the markets are waiting a bit to see what will happen, but in the longer run, it's more about which types of industries and which sectors will benefit from
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falling interest rates. the short-term speculation is, what will change in clients' portfolios and who benefits from dropping interest rates. annabelle: give us more details on that, when you do things strategically about it -- when you do think strategically, which sectors are you referring? adrianne: we have to think about the environment we are in. right now profits are accelerating and improving. last year are a lot of analysts were considering whether we were entering recession. looks less and less likely. the fomc is pausing for interest rates, but it looks like sometime between now and the end of the year, it will probably be about 25 basis points, maybe 50. it will happen, it is just a matter of time. the industries that few. one specifically, i work with a lot of financial services
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professionals -- banks. large banks. smaller banks, regional banks, international banks benefit when rates come down. if we look at the portfolio of banks, a big part of it is net interest income, that improves when interest rates come down. also look at loans, business loans, that activity with that increases the business loans and the amount of activity also increases. and, of course, we know that in the u.s., we are looking quite a lot at mortgage rates. it helps for two reasons. one is, as mortgage rates come back down, more homeowners are able to afford purchases. but also, we had something unusual: last couple of years which is, supply has been let, say, a bit sluggish. a lot of owners who had locked in lower rates have been sitting
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on their homes and waiting for rates to come down so they can also move. so the supply of inventory has been low. the beneficiary of all of this change and movement is financial services. haidi: i find it interesting that you have been so focused on banks, because we have seen that as an early theme imagine this year we have seen in japan and what is going on with new york bancorp extending that rout. are you concerned that there is more pressure and downside to come for these portfolios? adrianne: that are a couple of things that will serve as buffers. first is valuations. valuation for financial services have been much more repressed they have been a lot lower. so there is risk, but others about how much of my going to be? compensated for this risk? ? and lower the valuations are, the lower you pay for, the more buffer there is, as they regress to the mean, the better off you
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are. so because of valuations, that is less of a concern. also for a lot of international banks that have, for example, large percentages in investment banking and m&a activity, falling interest rates, whenever that does happen suddenly benefits those portfolios, those parts and departments of the bank as well. haidi: let's talk about international. you are bullish on international. where are you seeing the spots for best of fraternity? adrianne: international is very similar because of valuations. last year, large u.s. performed extremely well. it's not an anomaly. if you look in the last 14 years, u.s. large-cap outperformed international emerging market, international blue-chip and international developed. the u.s. is trading at a very large premium.
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could it continue the next decade? it could. i have been saying for a long time that because of valuations and because of growth and because of the u.s. bias that both individual investors and institutional investors have, that is not going to persist forever, it's going to have to come up, prices are going to have to come back to reasonable valuations. haidi: adriane yamacki, great to have you with us, founder and financial advisor at strategic growth capital. it truth between israel and hamas could be reached soon. we will get the latest developments next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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we are reviewing that response now and i will be discussing it with the government of israel tomorrow. there's still a lot of work to be done, but we continue to believe that an agreement is possible and indeed essential, and we will continue to work relentlessly to achieve it. haidi: haidi: u.s. secretary of state anthony blinken speaking in doha following a proposal to hold fighting in the gaza strip in exchange for the release of some israeli hostages. qatar is a key mediator in the conflicts, and says hamas has sent a positive response to the plan. for more, let's break -- let's bring in michael heath. michael: it speaks to a couple of things. hamas is probably under some degree of pressure. the people in gaza have suffered horrifically and there are reports of people saying that that benefits hamas but they are
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the ones paying for it. they have to be mindful of that and probably militarily, they are under a bit of pressure after four months of war. so that is deposited. the potential repercussions of that would be that if we get some sort of deal, perhaps the houthis will stop attacking the shipping that is going past and that pressure eases off, as well as hezbollah. so there is a lot at stake. israel, again, president netanyahu does not have a lot of room to maneuver. president biden describes some of the suggestions in their proposal as over-the-top. so it is good baby steps but we still have a bit of a way to go there. annabelle: they think may be what you are referring to are indicating michaels is about the deadnow whose relationship with some of his fireeye
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-- far-right ministers. how does that complicate this process? michael: it interesting. the two representatives mentioned or the ministers in the cabinet, they are almost fringe politicians in a way, very much representing the settler community. there was criticism from biotin from, the u.s. administration, locking the bank accounts engaged in balance in the west bank, which evidently makes things even more tense than outside of gaza, where there is terrible bloodshed at the moment. and then also there was a second minister who said president trump would be better for israel than biotin, which is a bit of a slap in the face given the president biden has stood staunchly by israel despite a lot of angst and unrest in the u.s. over how tightly the u.s. has tied itself to israel and to netanyahu. netanyahu needs these two parties' support in order to keep his government majority.
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by the same token, they need netanyahu to be able to direct funds to their supporters. so it's not like they can hold the government to that, he does have some move to maneuver -- some room to maneuver. but he can say that i can't move because of these ministers from the government. he does have more room for maneuver than he lets on sometimes good he is a very wily politician, is the prime minister of israel. annabelle: very interesting. it seemed like a delicate balancing act as well. that was michael heath in sydney. let's get to the latest and politics. president biden is blaming donald trump for sinking a bipartisan bill linking border controls with military aid for ukraine. the president admitted the senate package is unlikely to move forward, and says he will use the issue against the republican front-runner on the campaign trail. pres. biden: all indications are that this bill will not even
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move forward to the senate floor. wire? a simple reason. donald trump. he would rather weaponize this issue than actually solve it. so for the last 24 hours, he has done nothing, i am told but reach out to the republicans in the house and senate and threatened them and try to intimidate them to vote against this proposal. it looks like they are caving. annabelle: meanwhile, a u.s. federal appeals court has rejected donald trump's argument for presidential immunity, moving him closer to prosecution for allegedly trying to overturn the 2020 election. , the case brought by special counsel jack smith's office is one of four criminal cases trump is facing. his campaign says he will appeal against the d.c. circuit court ruling. haidi: another story we are following closely, the former chile and president, sebastian piñera, has been killed in a helicopter crash.
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reports say the 74-year-old was piloting the helicopter. when it came down. three other people on board survived. . the harvard educated billionaire served two terms as president between 2010-2022. the government has declared a period of national mourning. plenty more "daybreak: australia." ! >> this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: u.s. treasury secretary janet yellen says a losses in commercial relisted are a concern but regulators are working to ensure the financial system can cope, speaking at the start of two days of congressional testimony. she cited factors including high interest rates and vacancy rates, and awake of commercial real estate loans coming due
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this year. >> i do have a concern about commercial real estate. i believe it is manageable, although there may be some institutions that are quite stressed by this problem. haidi: shares of new york community bancorp have tumbled by double digits for the fourth time in five days extending air routes are triggered, in part, by those concerns of u.s. commercial real estate. for more let's bring in our reporter diana lee, who joins us out of new york. what are the contributing factors driving this extended slide now? diana: commercial real estate loans have been a concern since covid when work from home policies continued to weigh on commercial property values. but what triggered this selloff of new york community bancorp is that when it reported earnings on january 31, it slashed its dividends and stock filed reserves that intensified market fears. what is special about new york
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community bancorp, it is one of the winners of last year's regional banking crisis when it acquired loans from signature bank that pushed up its assets over $100 billion which also, made it subject to more regulatory scrutiny in terms of its liquidity and in terms of its commercial relisted concentration. the company also reported -- in its commercial real estate loans, one is office, and another is a co-op alone in new york. it also has exposure to the rent stabilized loans in new york which are subject to a lot of regulations. that adds to the concerns we are seeing here. annabelle: we just heard from janet yellen that expressing concerns about commercial real estate. what else are we hearing from regulators as well as the twonycb executives that just left. diana: new york community bancorp most doubled in size in the past 15 months, thanks to
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its acquisitions of flagstar, its mortgage unit, and its takeover of the signature bank loans. because of that, it attracted some regulatory pressure from the banking regulator, occ, which has been exercising control over its dividend payouts. we had a story yesterday about the bank's's chief risk officer and his chief audit officer left before the specific measures with regulators are reviewed. right now we don't know if management push them up, or if the regulators prompted them out, or if they simply wish to leave, but it is interesting to see it leaving -- see them leaving, from a risk and compliance perspective. haidi: we are still haunted with what happened with signature bank last year. should we be looking out for more risks? is there a depositor outflow pressure likely saw with svb? we have seen similar issues with the bank in japan. diana: right now the company did
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not share any details on the deposit outflows. we are still waiting for more clarity on that. but when you look at the balance sheet, it seems vulnerable because one third of the deposits are insured by the fdic and it has been relying on broker deposits to beef up liquidity. apparently a lot of the money is demand deposit accounts which can be with john without any notice. another thing we are closely watching is any activities in the bank's balance sheet management, meaning is the back going to selloff one line of business, or does the credit risk transfer with private equity or hedge funds that can help them inject some capital? annabelle: annabelle: want to track pretty closely. u.s. regional event reporter diana li in new york. another tracking closely is new york traded shares of ubs, they
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found the most in 11 months overnight even as the lender announced a billion-dollar buyback with fourth-quarter earnings missing estimates. the bank is willing to sacrifice growth in order to prove returns, of the merger with credits concludes, says the ceo. >> is a pivotal year, because if you think about the journey, the first six months, they are very intense. go through the merger, ubs and credit suisse ag will emerge in the first half of the year. the subsidiaries in the u.s. and switzerland will emerge also during 2024. so this is the prerequisite to being able to realize our synergies. we already achieved $4 billion of costs savings. we plan to add another growth evenings of $9 billion between 2024 and 2026.
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this will be reinvested in the business to make our platform more resilient and up to speed with the requirements, but also to invest in the future. >> how important was this investor update, just to give a blueprint of the kind of growth you want to achieve, and how? >> they think it's important for investors to understand how we are connecting the dots between what we be in the summer last year, in respect to our long-term plans, 2026 and going beyond. today we are providing a few dots, between 2024-26, on how we achieve cost savings, how we manage our balance sheet, how we manage growth. it has to come in a sustainable way. we are also given some indications about what to look forward to after the completion of the restructuring, which will
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then enable us to harvest the work that we did with quite attractive returns. haidi: ubs ceo sergio ermotti there speaking to bloomberg's francine lacqua. coming up next, we will be talking about bond investments, where we are in terms of expectations this year. alliance bursting is with us, brad gibson,, with us to talk about these opportunities as traders gear up for a record $42 billion deal of 10 year treasuries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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i don't want to say necessarily it's a glide path all the way to 2% but it's positive. >> neel kashkari on how the fed is not reached its inflation goal. our next guest things 2024 would be more about how far and how fast it can ball. brad gibson joins us now. an interesting chart to the year if you've been watching global bonds. if you take a look at this chart, it surprised me to see that despite the moves we've seen in recent trading sessions, volatility is actually pretty close to multiyear low and the move is not too far off its multiyear either. how are you structuring the narrative for treasuries and bond markets going into this year?
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brad: what's interesting is forward volatility is still quite contained. the rate cutting cycle this year , that fairly cinderella environment for the bond market and certainly the options market , with the -- whether the fed cuts in march or june, for longer-term vista, bonn you'll's have got to be supported in that environment. haidi: where do you see the best opportunities then? >> yields are going to be lower, and with respect to the yield
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curve, and the levels required in the short range, not just in the u.s. but in markets such as korea and china. >> we've seen those bonds really moving in anticipation of some sort of easing. >> we are tracking that very closely. we are trying to be a little more cautious with the level it's gotten to. as we continue to get stronger support for economic activity in the next couple of months, there is no inflation -- for a
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longer-term investor investing in the china broad market will continue to pay off. annabelle: we do shy away from aussie bonds given that the fed was a little more hawkish yesterday? >> because there is so little priced into the short end of the yield curve, with 150 in other markets, there is a risk that it is faster than what the markets anticipated. the rba is not likely to cut any time soon. there's a risk to be underweight and australian bonds.
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the yield is actually quite attractive. haidi: one of the risks for australia, you don't expect to see a solid stabilization for the chinese economy. it's interesting, have we started to see a correlation between what happens in china and the rest of the a.m. countries? >> we would expect emerging markets to underperform a bit -- more than they have. markets like indonesia and india seem to be benefiting from corporate and other entities looking to reinvest in markets away from china.
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because there's so much fuel for the european central banks to cut rates, i think there's a bit of a backstop to emerging markets going forward. annabelle: what about another risk on the horizon, more in the political realm, because the u.s. elections are coming up in november. how are you pricing around that? >> i think it's going to be a story for the second half of this year. whatever follow -- the u.s. decides following the election, there will likely be reactions to this. short-term pressure with reaction to that. that volatility allows banks to
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backstop for further easing. adding to that overweight position. annabelle: the head of asia-pacific fixed income at alliancebernstein. dbs has reported fourth-quarter profit that missed expectation amid signs of pressure and debt income rose 2%, just below the average estimate. the lender says ceo pays being cut by 21% due to a spate of digital banking outages including a deeper 30% pay reduction for the ceo. national australia bank says russell mcewen will be placed as chief executive officer.
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he has been the executive for business and private banking since 2020. he will retire from executive roles after four years in charge. the ecc is set to label hedge funds and bringing greater compliance and scrutiny. the market regulators boosting oversight as the firm speak, increasingly responsible for liquidity in the world's biggest government bond market. they will have a year to comply with registration requirements. more ahead on "daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪ gusto automatically calculates and files my taxes for me. hold up, compliance? easier? choose payroll compliance without the ups and downs. when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns.
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annabelle: you're watching "daybreak: australia." taking a look at some of these huge moves in after hours, snap down more than 30%, all down to earnings after the bell today, but disappointing revenue coming through for that social media company in the holiday quarter. is continuing to struggle with that slump in the digital advertising market so that is really playing into snaps numbers there. also ford rising after hours, it's been interesting for this automaker because they are actually grappling with the
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pullback in electric vehicle purchases and also rising labor costs. counter to that, they are increasing their output of gas vehicles instead. that's what investors are really liking. ford able to counter those losses in other parts of the business. yum china is one to note, jumping in after hours trade today. this is an owner and operator of fast food restaurants in china. it posted sales that beat analyst estimates for the fourth quarter. a big interview coming up in a few hours with the ceo of yum china. we will get more on yum china because we have our bloomberg intelligence seamer -- senior consumer of technology analyst joining us. what stood out to you in those yum china numbers? >> the sales actually beat what we were looking at, so that was
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a great delivery for the quarter that we've seen a lot of discounting and promotions, but yum china did well. i like to highlight the margin resilience which surprised to the upside. overall, looking for guidance a company will be given in about 20 minutes time. haidi: when you look at alibaba, what are the expectations or surprises that can support the gains in the share price we've seen over the last couple of sessions? >> that's another set of results we will be closely watching tonight. given the expectations have been downwards revised over the last quarter, we are looking at cuts of more than 10%. i do think there's some room for the company to actually beat on the adjusted ebitda basis,
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particularly as a company delivers better than expected performances. as well as local services. annabelle: alibaba trying to focus on this core business operations. do you think that means it's looking to sell any sort of assets? that was reported by media earlier this year. >> right, the company talked about it in the last quarter results that it will look at opportunities to dispose of non-core assets. clearly i think off-line retail such as department stores, physical supermarkets, it's not something that will drive the tech focus for the new ceo. i think when debt turns more favorable, that will be the opportunity for them to cash out these assets. haidi: catherine lim they're
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looking ahead to alibaba. we will speak exclusively to the yum china ceo joey wat at 1:00 p.m. sydney time, 11:00 a.m. if you're watching in hong kong. 7-eleven is targeting growth in the market since the brand began in the united states. it will use its expertise to transform the home of the american slurpee and the big gulp. here's more from tokyo in this bloomberg exclusive. >> he may be the rice ball king of japan, but he wants much more for his convenience store empire that's been at least $25 billion of the past seven years expanding its global footprint. he runs the 7-eleven business, born in america, but now
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controlled out of japan. these many marts are a part of daily life. >> it's near my office, so i come here every day. >> sure, 7-11 may sell 2 billion traditional rice balls each year , but it now cycles in some 2500 new food items annually. japan is aging, women are working more, households are shrinking, and tastes are changing. fresh fruit now takes up about a quarter of shelf space. >> response to these market changes, we believe in order to grow, we need to keep changing our product line up. korean barbecue is popular now. it is a new product. >> 7-eleven claims to be the world's largest convenience
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store operator, with nearly 23,000 stores across japan, 83,000 around the world. everywhere from tokyo to more remote taiwan where there are6800 convenience store. this one is a larger convenience store where you can get just about anything. this particular store is number 6000 711. >> the aim is to add 10 more by 2030. the key to growth may lie in its birth market, the united states, where 7-eleven is the leader, but still has less than 10% of the overall 150,000 store market. recently it bought the american gas station stores speedway and sunoco betting they can transform these roadside pitstops. >> we believe we need to change
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our business model from one that relies on gasoline and cigarettes to one in which customers choose us based on our products. the key to this change is fresh food. >> and a reliable supply chain in the united states. this plant outside tokyo for example is the picture of sanitation. we had to scrub and double glove as if we were entering a semiconductor plant. assembly lines run 24/7 to meet demand. within 12 hours of this getting made, these will be on the store shelves at 7-eleven's across japan. ok, they might need to offer -- alter the food offerings to suit american taste as well as eventually change the corporate structure to better suit shareholder the man's.
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cap her management is pushing -- pushing them to split off and non-growing department store. so far they have resisted. >> to transfer the growth of 7-eleven japan to the rest of the world, we must transfer the success of the food business as well. if we simply increase the number stores, we will be building a tower on a very weak foundation. >> the foundation built nearly a century ago is in ice vendor in texas might have to rely on his japanese lead. stephen engle, bloomberg news, tokyo. haidi: breaking news when it comes to development in u.s. politics, the house has held a boat on homeland security's may arcus impeachment and it has
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been rejected in terms of the impeachment vote. we did know that a panel of republicans are planning to burrow ahead with the vote and approve plans to impeach the homeland security secretary. it is seen as a historic vote on the house for as critic's happened announcing that effort as being unfounded and now we are seeing the house lacks the votes to pass the israel aid bill as well. we are seeing that vote on going but when it comes to the vote to impeach homeland security secretary, that has been rejected. it still would've made him the first cabinet official to be impeached in almost 150 years. it was virtually certain that a senate led by the democrats would not be voting to remove him, but still a significant action given republicans ability to aggressively oppose the secretary who is increasingly coming under scrutiny and
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workers entered the country last year and more are needed to plug the labor shortage. the demographic challenges for japan are well documented we know this is one of the areas in need of structural reform. is it visible in terms of daily life in the country? >> yes, actually is not so visible in city centers like tokyo, but in the countryside it is more evident that the number of foreign workers is increasing. i had a chance to visit two local cities where i encountered people from diverse nationalities working at farms and factories. those areas are where japan faces the most serious labor shortages. it's not necessarily visible but
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foreign workers are increasingly feeling the labor gap to support the regional economy. annabelle: what are the types of reforms a government and companies are using to try to attract those foreign workers to japan? >> competition for the workforce is getting more and more intense within the country as the labor shortage gets more serious. so local governments and companies need to improve themselves to attract and retain foreign workers. some local governments put massive efforts into it, for instance they assign translators at city halls and whole seminars to give advice to companies looking to hire foreign workers. and companies as well, and oyster processor that i visited in hiroshima told me the companies are offering more.
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haidi: there was our japan economy and government reporter. big news out there for anyone in this part of the world, because taylor swift is resuming her eras tour and coming to tokyo this week. we are always calculating the cost associated that this, how much more revenue can she generate on things like tickets, merchandise, food, hotels and other related activities. the calculation coming through for the japan part of the tour, saying that taylor swift, these four concert dates will be generating $230 million. that's a huge amount of money to
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be generating just over a couple of different events, especially because as we understand japanese only listen to a limited number of songs in english. the question is whether she goes back to las vegas on saturday as well. haidi: there so many different types of analysis on this. i'm a moderate swiftly, i will give you that. one of our producers is one of the biggest swifties. governor bullock potentially hawkish because of the potential inflationary spike we could see as a result of the taylor swift effect. in terms of hotel pricing, travel prices, services and other activities. is very interesting as the tour heads to australia, we are
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seeing hotels being booked up and we've seen this across every city and state that taylor has performed in. for tokyo, it cements its appeal for many popular western artist. coldplay, bruno mars, billy joel and ed sheeran in recent months. another reason to travel to see taylor. annabelle: as we close out the show, the u.s. house rejecting a standalone 17.6 billy dollar israel aid bill. we had seen them voting on that. more details ahead. ♪
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>> we are counting down to asia's major market opens. at the start of the session, that focus is coming down to what we are seeing in the bond space is because a whipsaw in trading start to the year. bonds are starting to rebound after we had that selloff to end the week and also to start this one. i focus as well on chinese stocks and what happens there. >> yeah, and if we could potentially see these bets on china or if stabilization could bolster risk appetite across the rest of the session and the rest of the region. the bounce back from that selloff, we see a little pullback in the u.s. dollar as well that we are seeing in the session. >> taking a look at what is happening with the yen, we are back down fractionally, closer to 140 seven. stocks-wise, we are coming
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