>> mother bloomberg markets. today our washington dc bureau, traders are basing for sale of 10 year treasuries and a handful of speakers -- a lot happening for the city. we're looking at s&p 500 that is so close that emotional level of 5000. now standing out around .7%.

particularly if technology giants. he also have the 10-year gilts tank that before the auction. let's see where the story goes. volatility is alarmingly low. some movers for you on the equity side trying to assure investors. also, let's talk about investing in commercial gauges. helping it deal with souring loans. more than 11%. down more than 14% as investors get out the real estate actor.

tesla's staff is bracing for cut after managers were asked to affirm if they are critical. sales missed estimates. if you take a look, it is up. remember there are many jobs. i want to switch to carlisle. we have carlislest 9% on the day and this is the best day, the biggest move we have seen. it is free up cash flow.

it has also changed the way it deals with things. >> 2023 as a new ceo coming in, it was about investing time and spending time with clients around the world. around 300 lps when i was first year. 2024 is really about focus on our priorities. if we do those things, people exceed our targets for this year. >> some strategic dates that will change the way you deal with things.

how does this change incentives for the people who invest in carlisle? ? of the first things this new investors had is more alignment. this is about alignment within our stakeholders. it is as i said earlier. our investing clients get more alignment with our investors and are shareholders get an increased and steady stream. >> the founders have been famously involved in the plan and remain large shareholders of the firm. how involved are they in the day-to-day? >> i was very clear that i

wanted to be very involved in the business. it is iconic brand. they create an amazing culture here. having their history and investing experience, we will take as much as we can get in carlisle. >> there was a rise in stock last year. how do you keep up? >> i think about it as an output. focus on priorities and deliver performance. if we do all those things, the stock price will follow. flex on one hand, it is a big

place to be bringing in new money. on the other hand, there are questions about the industry at large. there is question of if there are opportunities to put that towards. >> there are two questions that have come up with credit. a lot of those discussions are misunderstood. think about what we do as capital providers. it really does not have significant leverage. the systemic risk discussion is a little bit overblown. in terms of deploying credit, it is our responsibility to our investing clients to deploy that credit in the best way possible.

>> by the time you are done meeting carlisle, what ways will you have transformed? >> i think we are just getting started. i could not be prouder of my team. again, this is really as i said. if we focus on performance, we will be in important provider to people benefiting from that capital. >> what is the future of traditional private equity? >> i think it will only grow over the next several years. the wealth accumulation in the world of the asset class, the

tailwinds of the industry and thinking about it is about the trajectory that is a mystery. i think we are all part of it. >> for more, we are joined by paul. one of the things i spoke to harvey about was the fact that the stock has lagged relative to its rivals. they pulled in a lot of money but how do you see the positioning in a market that is so competitive today? >> i think they are moving in the right direction.

they are bringing in money from the private credit side. some of the things that were mentioned, it was a tough environment. there is good momentum. >> for things to get better, what is the risk that things do not get better? we are also going to hear from a big competitor. where do they fall relative? where do people see the growth trajectory? >> they need to see improvement in the different areas of private credit. it is a predominantly direct lender. they do need to add more.

they need to move more into direct lending and also need private equity. they have not been a lot of realizations. that is why not as much investment came in to the company is as it did in the previous years, but in 2021, carlisle set up fundraising target through 2024 with the money they expect to raise, they will be about that target still. they are not lacking based on their targets. >> we appreciate your work and your analysis.

stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the result of all of this hard work is a bipartisan agreement that represents the most fair and humane reforms in a long time. the toughest set of reforms to secure the border, ever. why? a simple reason. donald trump. donald trump thanks it is bad for him politically.

>> since then, senators have given up and are now discussing voting on a measure. we will discuss what is happening. that is something else being discussed, a tax bill. what do you think should or should not be in there? >> it also includes some changes to the child tax credit. the senate is looking at this. there are a number of senators who want an opportunity. it passed out of the house with flying colors. it seems that some senators want to make some changes to it.

>> what are the changes that you think will be brought to the surface? >> from my perspective, the changes that were brought in were to avoid a tax hike on working families. it is commensurate with inflation. i'm not sure what they want to change, but that is the purpose of these proposals. >> congress is good at running up against deadlines and then again. there are situations where it is absolutely required. >> the other issue is that you have a record auction.

one big thing is, can you keep sustaining issuing new treasuries into this kind of a deficit? at what point will be there -- will there be something that breaks? >> the office is coming out with numbers. and what -- i do not expect those numbers to be good but congress needs to think through long-term tax policy. it needs to be on both sides of the ledger and on the revenue side. the challenge is that the longer it takes to get to a solution, the more costly those changes are going to be. there have been a number of reforms offered but nothing taken up. >> thank you for your time.

coming up, more of my exclusive interview. sharing and outlook for a complicated topic, commercial real estate and the federal reserve. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> this is bloomberg markets. it is time for the wall street the. lenders are taking added divisions. as loans began to sour from high interest rates, many are concerned. i discuss the future with harvey schwartz earlier this morning. >> i think as capital providers, whether it is in our private equity platform, credit or business, i think this capital can be incredibly valuable and has proven to be valuable in

solving problems. when you think about a banking crisis or disruption, the best way is with the most efficient cost of capital. >> some of the areas i stock be. there are a lot of fears that the sector could be facing a significant crisis. do you share those concerns? >> one of the significant things is one of the most -- their performance is truly extraordinary. when i talk to them about commercial real estate, they started backing away many years ago. i think there will be challenges, but i think this plays out over many years

because in many ways, we can see this problem, but it will have to be digested over the years. >> there is a market that expects more than five rate cuts. do you believe that those rate cuts will come to fruition? >> we have a pretty unique perspective on this. we see the data and the performance and i would say if you step back and about historic fed behavior, there is fine-tuning or raising dramatically. we look at the data from our companies and then you look at strong gdp, when you see inflation has really stop materially, i do not think we should be rooting for a rate

cuts. i think it suggests an environment that requires a lot of attention from the fed. i think the economy is in better shape and i think the fed has done a fantastic job of navigating this. we would expect the base case to be two to three cuts. we are watching this closely but my crystal ball is as good as yours. >> what is the risk? what would cause the tide to turn? >> remember that the fed has communicated to us that they are watching this data very carefully. i think it is a little bit of a bias. i think we should one a normal

amount of capital. i think it is an extraordinary outcome and great for business opportunities. i think you create a lot. >> we have a few d.c. questions for you. you have a large presence when it comes -- when it comes to china. the relationship with washington dc and the u.s. how do you view those challenges and navigate them as an investor? >> they have different requirements. to some of them will look at china and say, the profile does not look like it fits. many of my clients around the world really like the risk reward in china. you bring up china and got a lot of attention because we sold our

position at mcdonald's. it was a tremendous return of a number of years. it really highlights the power of our private equity franchise. people want higher rates. when you look at that transaction, a mere seven times return for our investors in china. right in this environment. roughly 80% of it came from operational enhancements. it is about picking the right partner and executing the business. i think there are opportunities. >> what about the opportunities at home? a lot of big names sounding alarms about what is happening here and about the sustainability of what we are spending as a country. how do you view that from where you are sitting and couldn't spiral into a bigger problem? >> we lament a lot of things in

the u.s. i traveled around the world last year, i was told by investing clients that they felt a little over allocated and they will continue to allocate more. i would not against the u.s. >> that was part of my conversation with harvey schwartz of carlisle. i'm bringing in katie greifeld from new york because she is going to take over for the rest of the hour. what a weird day we have. on one hand high stocks and the other, the community bank is being shrugged off by s&p 500, so close to that 5000 level. katie: it feels like what we are seeing, especially when it comes to in my cb is dragging down the broader industry. you are not seeing it like you said. we are not yet talking about contagion.

we will see how the conversation changes. we are set for the biggest 10 year auction ever in treasuries. >> there is another big thing going on before the auction, your interview that has certainly been a massive conversation this year. >> i am really excited about this one. weight loss drugs are the talk of the town. of course the competition there is really interesting as are the production issues. there is more demand than supply. there is a lot coming up. >> rivals are seeing a lot of love from this movement. stick with us.

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>> this is bloomberg markets and i am katie grayfield. green on the screen behind me. up about .7%. we are getting closer and closer. we will see what it takes to get there. having an even better day on the nasdaq 100. take a look at the two year yield. putting much flat on the day. take a look at the 10 year yield. a huge auction coming up. we will see how that goes over.

working to maintain dominance in the drug space. abigail doolittle has the information. >> i'm not just saying that because of the conversation you are about to have. this is the only chart that i am aware of that is up out of the pandemic. up 390%. this reflects the underlying growth. 10 to 31% on the bottom line. a big growth going into some are saying that the growth is likely to continue and the outlook could prove conservative as has happened in the past.

they remain key drivers and it is interesting because they made that acquisition through one of the biggest shareholders, giving them three big factories. they have bigger growth because the numbers are taller but the growth is starting to slow. we will see 2024 -- it looks like 22%. slowing to a single digit. a lot of competition. keeping that competitive edge. >> in thrilled to say that we have the ceo. it is great to see you in person. many people have been asking you

for months about how you plan to ramp up production to meet the demand. we finally got an answer this week. acquiring three of its factories in the process, but already you have eli lilly calling regulators to look into this. how big of a risk is there that you run into antitrust concerns? >> we have given some thought to that issue. >> what we are looking at is an opportunity. it is really the underutilized part that we are making a play on and there are existing contracts and holdings. they look forward to still

serving customers in the future. >> are you preparing for the possibility that human into antitrust questions? >> it is normally in a process like that to answer questions. i would like to underline that we honor all the contracts that are there. it is a play on idle capacity that we can utilize to serve many more patients. there is a huge opportunity that we are looking at. >> it seems like you are confident that this deal will close. that makes a lot of sense to me. proceeding with that premise, how much will that had in terms of capacity? >> when you look at adding capacity, it starts with the ingredients. we are building two more in

denver and looking to ramp up our capacity. but we are also going to expand on our strategic sides. it is an opportunity that built a little earlier. we still need to do more. >> when it comes to this deal, there is a question of why do it this way that of tilting your own. >> it is a matter of time. you have to recruit people. we already have partnerships. we are working with what makes sense to us and also getting the time advantage of serving many more patients. >> they are going to fill

capacity. what about be active ingredient? how much will you have to spend to scale up production? >> we are spending billions of dollars ramping up capacity. we have already made those decisions. we are going to significantly enhance capacity. it is an even harder ramp than for finished capacity. we will have the first factory kicking in. we are investing and announced a huge expansion last year. it is the whole spectrum. >> a lot of moving parts here.

when it comes to the active ingredient, which is the more difficult hurdle to climb? >> the most difficult is the api. we do that on our own. it is a more standardized technology. it is more of a standout technology that you can scale. >> on the other end of this, when you have all the factories inc. and work on the active ingredients, will you be able to prep -- we be able to fill the demand that we are seeing? >> that is a very good question. most likely, we will still see a number of years where demand is

larger than what we can supply. that is a very attractive growth opportunity. we tried to take care of patients starting treatment. we make sure that they have a positive journey. we will be scaling capacity significantly but most likely, it will be responsible. >> let's talk about that now. you didn't warn about intensifying competition. the price is just under $1400 a month. do you anticipate that prices will come down? >> you have a listed price and you give significant rebate.

over time you enhance that rebate. that is also what we see. our other priorities are similar. it is a relatively stable environment. typically, they are lower-priced . it works for as because it is so significant that you can serve more and more patients. there is a potential benefit. it is a deal. >> how closely are you watching the pricing?

place we have been competing for many years. from ee, there is something about how he compete. the value is driven by the quality. what is quite significant is that the number of patients that are available for treatment is much higher. more than 100 million. we are serving less than one million. it is about helping patients but also growing our business. >> we are having this conversation in new york and talking about the u.s., but you are an international company. he recently said that you were surprised that european

consumers have been so willing to pay for these drugs out of profit. how does european demand look relative to u.s. demand? >> a very strong uptake in the european markets. those are markets where there is still november smit. that was my common. in europe you have not seen a high willingness but if you live with obesity and you have tried all kinds of interventions that you have been paying for and most likely not succeeding, now there are opportunities for strong weight loss. it is one that many are willing to pay for. we are still trying to make contracts with consistence.

those who need treatment the most and we once make contracts so that those patients are also served and they end up being the biggest. it is quite meaningful. >> you think it will be a bigger market for the drugs? >> bigo with most of our products. it gets in the market and you work with them. it is a private health care market where there is a big demand factor for having insurance, good paying jobs and good coverage. it is different in europe where it is -- they are slower in

approving projects. but we have huge coverage. we believe it is a sizable and continued strong growth of opportunity. >> we want to talk about how this drug is actually taken. when it comes to the pills, you initially aimed for it but that did not happen. can you give us any idea of when you might file again? >> most say -- we had this category exploding. i think we have to acknowledge

that it is very convenient but there is also another segment. we have made a breakthrough and made it available. now we are looking at different doses and looking at data to investigate how to bring that to marketing. it takes more api. we also have to balance how many patients we can serve and what is the best way of doing that? it talks to our aspiration of different treatment regimes and products related to obesity or diabetes. a big portfolio that we can bring to patients and driving.

>> is there any timeline that you could commit to? looking at eli lilly, they could have their pill on the market. is that a similar timeline for you? >> we can match that because we have the clinical data but i would also say that there is other interesting data. we just announced exciting is one data. we believe we have an interesting portfolio that we can successfully brings the market over the years and get closer to different preferences that are there. >> it is great to see you in person. we really appreciate your time. that is the ceo of your organs

and. does the earnings out after the battle. we dig into that company, next. ♪ that first time yoke a .

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katie: we are watching disney. investors are eager to hear any hints of affability for its streaming business. signaling they may lose subscribers due to price increases. we are going to talk about earnings and what takes act. espn fox and others teaming up. how are you digesting that?

is that the right move here? >> it is the right move. about a year ago, we suggested that they would do something like this for a simple reason. the ecosystem is broken from a consumer standpoint. now they have to buy a myriad of apps. the sports fan is paying too much because they are paying for a bunch of content on the linear package that they do not want. the answer is to resurrect or reconstruct sports properties and put them under one umbrella. that was announced last night. katie: it is expected to price in the $40 range or so. how does that sound to you? the consumer is tired of paying all these different costs.

>> that is about right. if disney put all their sports properties on esc -- espn plus, it suggested the price point was around $25. disney comprises about 70% of u.s. sports content spending. if you add the other companies, that sounds about right. >> just about right. we will see the actual numbers when they come through, but focusing on what we will hear tonight after the battle. you expect that the focus will be to drive towards streaming profitability. how far away is profitability when it comes to the streaming business? >> the streaming business was losing $1.4 billion in the

quarter. a year later, so september 2023, they would lose about 400 million and our model has them generating site profits in the fourth quarter of this calendar year. about three quarters after, so we are getting close. >> they expect profitability in that segment when it comes to the fourth quarter. does that timeline sound realistic two-year years? >> it is the consensus. if they push that outcome the stock will go lower. the stock will respond positively. the one thing that is most interesting to me is that i have not had one institutional investor asked me how much disney can make in the business. they are so focused on hitting even.

disney is an earnings story. what that means is that institutional investors are paying zero. that is just crazy. that is why we are rated primarily. what sort of money could disney make in streaming? >> i appreciate that color as well. when it was so low, it makes sense why you would have that meeting. let's talk more about the stock. performance since october, they have gained about 20%. what is the next catalyst? what can they report tonight that will keep that momentum going? >> streaming profitability is important, but i think there are other vectors that are important.

we cannot have the parks falling apart. everything we have done suggests that the numbers should be fine for the quarter. that is enough for me. we cannot have macroeconomic weakness causing things to go backwards. the other thing that gets me excited is -- i would call it uninteresting in terms of what comes out of the studio. what we need is for the studio to be what it was in the 2017 to 2018 period. what we are betting on is that institutional investors are going to imagine all the things that could go right at the studio or in terms of streaming profitability sometime this year and begin to anticipate that before it unfurls. >> one is the biggest risk here?

to be a disappointment there? is it the -- is it their fault? >> less nervous about streaming profitability. it is about how much money they will spend on marketing and content. it is really the parks where i get nervous because i would argue a lot of that is out of their control. they run the parks well, but we saw what happened during covid and great financial crisis. there is major operating leverage. >> it has a lot of hard-core fans, those parks. we really enjoyed this conversation. previewing disney earnings after the bell. a big focus on streaming and profitability. i would imagine there will be more than a few questions on the

analyst call but let's look at the markets right now. take a look at the s&p 500 and it is rising today. closer and closer to that 5000 level. we are already getting there, closing in on those all-time highs. you are seeing that again today. up about .9%. it was an earnings season of have and have not. turn your focus to the treasury market. coming up, we have the biggest auction of 10 year bonds ever over $40 billion of 10 year notes. that is an important test of demand in the treasury market.

do not go anywhere. we will bring you all of that. this is bloomberg. ♪ [busy hospital background sounds] this healthcare network uses crowdstrike to defend against cyber attacks and protect patient information. but what if they didn't? [ominous background sounds] this is what it feels like when cyber criminals breach your network. don't risk the health of your business. crowdstrike. we stop breaches. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you?

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>> this is balance of power.