haidi: welcome to daybreak australia. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney where markets have just come online. annabelle: we are counting down to asia's major trading market opens. u.s. stocks extend their old run. a record sale of 10-year treasuries leading to confidence in a fed pivot. haidi: disney's full your profit beats as it reveals a big gaming investment, giving a bullish forecast. annabelle: china replaces its securities regulator in a surprise move that may signal tougher action to and the market route -- to end the market

route. >> we got australia coming online. we are seeing upside of about just about .1%. on the brink of that historic 5000 mark. we had the biggest ever 10-year auction of treasuries leading the way for how we see sovereigns perform here in the asia session, watching australia three and 10 yields at this point. we are seeing a little bit of trading on the upside when it comes to aussie stocks. the earnings season gathering pace. consumer spending, the economic recovery, potentially higher dividend payouts, some of the things we will be watching for when it comes to reporting from australia's largest companies. the aussie dollar is -- we had a pretty narrow trading range, so not much of a move when it comes

to some of these agencies so far. let's look at some of the other markets we are watching. kiwi stocks down by about .2%. nikkei futures looking broadly positive. up about .2% amid those gains across u.s. shares. we are watching for that deputy government street on thursday. >> all about that policy normalization. in after hours, we are tracking some of the big moves -- some of the big names that report after the bell today. the chip designer listed just last year, and arm came out with a very strong forecast. they are saying for the current quarter, they could make as much as $900 million in revenue. compare that to the average analyst estimate, so there is a

big gap, and that's why we are seeing a jump in after hours. disney as well, again, stronger forecast coming through. they will also be investing 1.5 billion dollars into fortnite maker epic games. paypal under pressure against the guidance coming through, but to the weaker side because they are seeing flat earnings. these are some of the big moves in after hours. let's look at the start of trade for futures. we had intraday moves during the session because u.s. stocks continue to power ahead. we saw the s&p 500 closing within striking distance of that 5000 mark. slightly above that in the futures. again, is that how investors are interpreting the fed commentary as well, seeming to shrug off this question of when we will see any kind of cuts. that also came through from the

boston fed president. take a listen. >> expecting all indicators to be well aligned is too high a bar, but seeing sustained, broadening signs of progress should provide the necessary confidence that i would need to begin a methodical adjustment to our policy stance. >> again, another fed official pushing back on these market expectations of imminent rate cuts. where we are seeing that further -- that need for further easing is in china. we had more changes as well in terms of the leadership. we had the talk of a securities regulator being changed, for a stock market slide that has wiped $5 million since the peak in 2021. let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle. what is the latest here? pretty surprise move since yesterday.

we gave a little bit of rally, that it falls back. overall sentiment has been weak. you have sliding stocks, you have a sliding economy. you have geopolitical tensions with the united states, and you are coming up onto a heart break, if you will, using television terms, and that is a week-long holiday were sentiment is pretty weak, so something had to be done. it has been a pretty bad here for officials in xi jinping's government. he lost a foreign minister who was replaced. the top general in the pla replaced. now you have the securities regulator abruptly changed. given the situation and given the presidents in the past with security regulators changing, you usually get a boost in stocks because again, they are given a mandate to use perhaps more forceful approaches to stop

a potential stock market slide or whatever rectification that needs to be done. here's the two gentlemen in question right now. the securities regulator, chairman, and party boss since 2019, he is on his way out. the replacement is considered to be a hardliner. he takes a more hard-line approach to discipline, which probably is in line with what xi jinping would want right now. zero-tolerance is kind of his slogan, and he is known as the broker butcher. that is a nickname that he earned in the mid-2000's when he led a crackdown on malfeasance, if you will, and that practices within brokerage industry in china. he shut down 31 different brokerages in china in the mid to thousands, so he is going to basically enforce discipline because the csrc in the last few days, as late as monday, came out and said we have evidence of

malicious shortselling, stock market manipulation. if there is malfeasance happening, this guy is going to rooted out, and they will have a weeklong holiday to come up with a strategy. >> yes, as we head into the year of the dragon comment is it supposed to be the most auspicious of the horoscope. powerful, world success, not exactly themes we are associating with the target economy at the moment. we will get more data to that. >> that's right. deflation persists, and that's a real difficult situation for an economy that is trying to get out of this slump on multiple fronts, as i just mentioned. we are going to get cpi inflation numbers. expecting a fourth consecutive month of consumer price deflation. we know consumer prices have been week for 15 consecutive months. that is also expected to continue. we are headed into the weeklong holiday.

if they will be spending, the administered of congress has already declared that 2024 will be the year of promoting consumption. his it's an inauspicious start to the year. >> the latest on china and one of china's biggest companies. alibaba fell the most since november after the company reported lower than expected sales overshadowing its move to extend the buyback program. let's get more on this. bloomberg intelligence senior analyst catherine lim joins us now. the stock has been training on optimism, but what was ultimately the biggest disappointment of these numbers? >> i think what brought the stock back to square one over the last week, really, was that there seems to be more uncertainties facing the stock. the company now is pushing for global e-commerce come back in china as well as overseas, so

they will be spending more in 2024, possibly after giving up the profit gains it eventually made in the last one year. secondly, there was a highlight that there are uncertainties in market conditions that may have divestment plans, including ipo of china, so these were the two key things that stood out that overshadowed, i would say, the enlarged share buyback program by the company. >> we know alibaba needs to catch up ground that it has lost to peers. are we seeing signals of an e-commerce come back at all? >> do you know what? we are in the very early stage. what is interesting is they have identified and develop asia as

markets aliexpress will be focusing on in the near term. that slows down some of the extension outside the u.s. we will have to see what comes true over the next 10 months. >> should we be expecting something to take place this year? >> i guess given the very subdued indications for management overnight, i do think his it's a function of market conditions right now. if we continue to actually see valuations at current depressed valuations, i don't think that this is an ipo that will come through before may of this year, which is the indicated timeline that was earlier communicated. it may still be on the cards for the second half. >> that was our bloomberg

intelligence senior asia consumer analyst. turning to another stock we have been watching because disney shares are up in extended trading after the company's earnings beat estimates and they gave an upbeat profit outlook for the year. for more, your bloomberg intelligence senior media analyst joins us now. stocks are higher in after hours by about 6%. what is standing up to you in the numbers? >> overall, this was really a block to report for disney. there are so many things i think investors are cheering. we are seeing great progress on the cost-cutting efforts. the company guided to 20% eps growth in fiscal 2024, which is way above what consensus was expecting. across the board, we are seeing not just very good execution in terms of cost cutting, but also a very clear strategy for them going forward. one of the key questions for investors going into this quarter was what is their endgame with espn?

is there a strategy for streaming? they came out with a new bundled sport service where espn will be part of another old and i have a standalone espn streaming service which will be introduced in 2025. everything seems to be going right for disney right now. >> what does the new sport streaming service mean potentially when it comes to espn's future? >> did you ask what its name is? >> what are the implications for the future of espn? >> it was definitely a necessary step i believe for disney. they have seen the writing on the wall in terms of cord cutting. what it means i think for the future is that they will be ready when more and more people cut the cord. they already have 30 million people who have cut the cord in the united states. they will have tens of millions more who kind of do the same

over the next few years. this positions them to take control of their future and control the distribution, which is really important. until now, these big media companies have only controlled production, not distribution. this puts them at the forefront of that. >> something else that came out of the earnings was around disney's plans for games. we heard them speaking about this. listen to what they said. >> our new relationship with epic games will create a transformational games and entertainment universe that integrates world-class storytelling into cultural phenomenon fortnite enabling consumers to play, watch, create, and shop for both digital and physical goods. >> how is that sort of investment they are making likely to be viewed by investors? >> i think it is definitely a

good investment. his it's a step in the right direction. this is not the first foray from disney into video games. they have had some clearly checkered history here of more i would say failures and successes with direct involvement of videogames, which is why they always kind of stayed away from that direct investment and went to licensing. they are realizing they have this huge untapped market because we just look at visitors to the theme parks. there are all these young children that are the perfect target audience spending so much time on videogames, and it makes perfect sense. it is a great move for them to now invest. there's potentially a lot of upside. i think it creates a whole new entertainment universe, which is really important for them going forward. >> the latest on disney. still ahead, conflicting interpretations of the hamas response for a hostage deal in

gaza. we get the latest on that cease fire coming up. before that, they take on the recent fed comments, suggesting the fed does not see an urgent case for lowering interest rates . this is bloomberg. ♪ ative planning, our money managers and specialists work together to make sure your portfolio and wealth are managed in a tax-efficient manner. it's what you keep that really matters. why not give your wealth a second look? book your free meeting today at creativeplanning.com. creative planning -- a richer way to wealth.

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quick the truth of, which is coming into -- the trade-off, which is coming into better balance, is still affected by inflation. >> at some point, it may be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate. on the other hand, it may be

pertinent to hold the target range at a steady level for longer to ensure continued progress. >> fed officials on the fed's outlook. our next guest says the market has already discounted cuts. it is interesting how we operate within this environment where fed speak is more important than ever, and yet, the market continues to out and outpace expectations. >> pleasure to see both of you. the fed's comments matter less and less. we have already discounted five or six rate cuts. the market will get there or the fed will get there. it is just jawboning until we

are there. we have already discounted cuts in the market. and we had a strong treasury option where people were anticipating. what matters is the real pace of data that comes through. >> if you try to draw similarities between how investors feel about the u.s. market right now and how investors feel about china, minds are pretty set, right? they see what they see regardless of what policymakers necessarily are signaling and doing. what i want to know is -- how do you see the chinese economy is being -- as being after the taylor swift concert? >> you are at the taylor swift concert and you press the uber one and you just don't know what will come. the chaos that exists is expected. i thought the inside intelligence from bloomberg was excellent. the economy is slowing. we have problems in real estate,

and the market does that, but there are little companies underneath that. alibaba trades at about four times cash flow x the assets, and the company has a high roa and is still growing, so that uber or that car will grow. i think calling a day, week, and month that that market bottoms is impossible, though. was different in the united states is that bad news is skipped, and good news is just that, good news. i am surprised that the u.s. public market has not been more concerned, specifically highlighting one of the largest asset in the world, which is multi family. that has gone in reverse. i'm shocked it has not been more

concerning for the market as a whole, and i can only imagine that people believe with the rate cuts we will power through it. >> it's interesting you talk about a cbc because we have been watching it very closely. at the same time, you see pressures when it comes to japanese lenders for as well. do you think there's a risk of these portfolio pressures and risks for 2024? >> we lowered real rate for give or take 15, 20 years, and we are just starting to lift them up. to me, this is the second canary in the coal mine of what happens . the first one was the implosion of spac's and ipo money. i think there will be more.

regardless of what the fed does. >> i'm interested how that plays into longer duration assets. you are highlighting private equity. we have seen players in the space. will this also because a crunch, do you think? >> we meet with hundreds if not thousands of private capital credit markets a year. we are slow to put capital to work. we are also slow to get capital back, and as a result, at large and means people do not have the money to refresh. very different than the credit crisis that's ongoing in asia that we highlighted earlier in the show. >> i guess maybe it calls for some out-of-the-box thinking.

you highlighted a preference for greek equities, which is a market we talk about too much on the show, at least. why is that? >> i don't know that i have ever invested in the green market. if it has been, it has been long time. we have an warming up to emerging markets. his it's an area that has lagged. the reason in particular was hard for me to believe, but they have cleared up their school problems. they are actually running the largest fiscal surplus in europe at this point. the earnings estimates for security, double digit earnings growth. the stocks trade for about six times earnings. really, it looks up and to the right and there is still a lot of skepticism. >> something to be tracking closer. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of "daybreak." terminal subscribers go to dayb . his it's also available on mobile in the bloomberg anywhere

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>> you are watching "daybreak australia." here are some of the top stories we are tracking. bloomberg has learned citadel was among the hedge funds that received morgan stanley's trade links for favored clients. other recipients are said to include others. prosecutors have not -- not accuse any buy side participants of wrongdoing. sources say new york community bancorp has been reaching out to investors for capital to finance a large portfolio of residential

mortgages. the bank is said to be considering a synthetic risk transfer. n.y.c. be is under pressure over its worsening credit quality. ripples from the troubles in the u.s. commercial market have spread to europe with banks slumping over property pressure. >> let's take a look at how a is shaping up this thursday. we are half an hour into the start of

>> the carlyle group is warning that market expectations are excessive. ceo harvey schwartz told us exclusively that the company moved away from the troubled commercial real estate sector some time ago. >> one of the very fortunate things that i had heard is that carlisle is one of the best real estate investing teams in the world. their performance over 20 years is truly extraordinary. when i talk to them about commercial real estate, they really started backing away from office many years ago. i think there will be challenges, but i think this plays out over many years because in some respects, we can see this problem, but it will have to be digested by markets over a number of years.

>> part of this problem is being caused on the heels of higher interest rates. you have a market now that still expects more than five rate cuts before the january fomc meeting of next year. do you believe that those five rate cuts will come to fruition? >> we have a pretty unique perspective on this. across our portfolio companies, we have an excess of one million employees, and we see the data and performance. i would say that if you step back and think about historic fed behavior, typically there is fine tuning or cutting dramatically or raising dramatically, and when we look at the data from our portfolio companies and you look at strong gdp, unemployment numbers that are quite attractive, and you see inflation stopped materially and pause at this stage, i don't think we should be rooting for fed rate cuts. i think we are in an environment that requires a lot of attention

from the fed. i think the economy is in better shape than people are giving it credit for. >> what is a more realistic view of where rates go? >> in our model, we would expect the base case to be two or three cuts. we expect the fed to be very data-sensitive. we are watching closely also. >> what is the risk that we tip over from a soft landing or even no landing into recession? what would cause the tides to turn? >> i think you could see if you have an unexpected market disruption, geopolitical event, but, remember, the fed has communicated to us that they are watching this data very carefully. hoping for multiple rate cuts i think is people really say, i really enjoyed that qe that we are experiencing. as market participants, we should want a normalized cost of capital, and if we can get there through this process, i think it will be an extraordinary

outcome. i think it would be great for business opportunities. i think it would be great for carlisle and great for investment funds. >> that was the carlisle ceo speaking exclusively with bloomberg. you can see a little bit of stability perhaps we are finding here. we talked about the personnel change overnight. that raises hopes perhaps that new measures are in the pipeline. still, the evaluations are looking extremely cheap, and that pessimism does continue to persist. our guest is the senior emerging-market strategist at ciba. where do you think we are at in the selloff now? do you think we have hit the bottom at this point in time? >> i think it is still early to

say we are out of the woods right now. it does look like policy easing is on the way. we do expect more policy easing on the way. as you mentioned, the evaluations are very attractive. heading into lunar new year, we are about to go into a break, i think. there is probably still time for concrete policy action. the problem is if we look at market expectations versus what is really coming out, there is still a bit of a gap. markets when they see the news jump a little bit. it shows you that markets are still expecting a bit more, but then i think another tangible question is -- do they have to do much more to meet market expectations? there are two aspects of that, but in our view, the economy is recovering. his it's a bit of a bumpy road. the big issue is when they really get out of this deflation problem. we had cpi numbers today.

still expecting to see deflation, but as we gradually improve i would say closer to q2, maybe they don't have to do as much. >> i want to bring your attention to this chart. this is looking at the performance of the benchmark in china after we have seen leadership changes at the securities regulator in the past. you can see there has been that move higher. overnight, we had the news that we had a replacement coming through. how do you think the market is likely to interpret that today? >> i think the timing is certainly very interesting. right ahead of the new year, given everything that has happened, i think the general expectation, they see this as a bit more positive. markets are inclined to be a bit more hopeful into the year of the dragon, and i think that is another aspect of the broader changes coming from. the reality is we really don't know yet. the issue is we have to wait and see. what is the real tangible change

happening? i think there are suggestions that things are happening behind the scenes, but in terms of is this the turnaround, i think it is still too early. >> does there need to be more market performance? i know most of the focus has been on stimulus measures and fiscal measures, but does there need to be more capital markets reform? on the macro front, we are getting inflation numbers later on today. we are not expecting a market -- marked improvement, just muddling through that deflationary spiral. >> absolutely. i think we expect reform or easing or macro support across a host of pressures -- a host of measures. these are things which markets are desperately calling for right now. from the monetary side, we expect more cuts, at least another 15 basis point -- at least another 50 basis points. fiscal support from the central

government is also very much needed. property support to rebuild confidence. i think we have seen a lot more of those already, but it is really when it catches on and ignites the market, so we are not -- i think the biggest issue right now is confidence, and it is how they bring that about, but confidence can also be a very fickle thing. to his it's not like you do a, b, c, and d and therefore confidence is coming back. it is how they managed to massage these animal spirits and bring investors back. >> help well correlated or anchored is the fed in china to the market complex, would you say? last year, there were times when we saw the correlation seem to be getting weaker. will it still be one of the major themes for em's? >> absolutely. as you noted, i think what we have seen so far is there has been a bit of a d correlation of china markets, but i think china

still has a very important role to play, especially within the asia context. in our view for asia, there is a bit of a triple threat. that fed rate uncertainty. second, it is about sentiment, so where is china going. so far, that has not been that great. if we get the china rebound, we get sentiment stabilizing a little bit, this could also be one of the aspects why we are more optimistic towards asia over the course of the year. >> what else will drive optimism around asia, particularly for the key markets, taiwan and korea? we have seen mixed signals coming through. where do you think we are at in recovery? >> what we have been consistently saying is we think the chip cycle is recovering, but we think it will be slower than expected. markets have kind of gotten ahead of themselves.

if you look at the performance of the stock index, the rally is huge. it is partially driven by the ai factor, but his it's clear there is a bit of a segregation going on in the chip cycle. the top end of the value chain is recovering faster. the lower end is still a bit muddled at this point in time, so we need to be a bit more cautious. i think that speaks to currencies like the korean won or the taiwan dollar. these can be a bit better. >> arm holding shares we saw in extended trading after the chip designer gave an exciting forecast is helping to growth and profitability. softbank is also on track to post one of its strongest

quarters in years when it reports earnings later on thursday. for more, let's bring in our bloomberg technology reported in tokyo. first of all, what did we hear from arm? >> as you said, it has given a surprisingly bullish forecast for the march quarter, and it has bolstered shares in after-hours trading. while arm's share price increase itself does not affect softbank earnings, it does provide a big push for the total value of softbank asset, one of the key metrics for softbank, and we do kind of expect a pop for softbank shares when they start trading today. softbank itself is forecast to have a pretty positive quarter itself for the december quarter

because of some extra gains from t-mobile shares, so quite a bit positive news for softbank today. >> there is perhaps some skepticism around the second of its vision fund that still has a lot of issues or losses perhaps in its privately held startups. what we expect to hear from that portfolio company? >> you are right. we still don't have clarity over how the vision fund privately held assets have been marked during the december quarter, so we can only speculate that the value would be possibly a status quo or -- but there are critics who think there is potential for these privately held assets to be marked down going forward, which will have a negative impact on vision fund earnings and therefore softbank earnings, too, so there will definitely be

a lot of interest around what the cfo has to say about these assets and see if there's any possibility that these private assets will rebound as well, but we will have to see. >> what else are you going to be tracking out of this? perhaps what they say about ai, for instance? >> definitely with arm shares soaring like this and giving such a positive forecast, i think there will be a lot of interest around how softbank plans its push into ai technology and all the start of investments, and of course, any extra plans with regards to more ai-related projects or any new

investments into the area of ai which now sounds so promising. there will definitely be a lot around this plans and ideas. >> big earnings release we will be tracking later. still ahead, the u.s. and israel get conflicting interpretations of the hamas response to a hostage deal in gaza. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the u.s. secretary of state responded to hamas' response for the release of hostages, but israel seems to have rejected the terms from the militant group. it seems to be a lot of room for

interpretation. >> it is curious because you read netanyahu's remarks, and they are like, this is no deal. his a nonstarter. blinken is like, this is an opening gambit. there is a significant groundswell within israel's society that they have to get these people out. "wall street journal" have reported that 50 are dead, so we are down to 85, so it is getting very difficult for them. obviously, it is a humanitarian catastrophe in gaza. from israel's side, it is just what they are prepared to pay. hamas has come to realize that the hostages are central, so that is what it has come down to. it does seem to be public shown

to an extent. >> this has been happen that happening concurrently that the u.s. has been carrying out strikes in iraq as retaliation for the servicemen that were killed. the u.s., what it is doing is separate. it's trying to show these iranian backed groups that there is a price to pay. in a sense, it delayed taking action in response to the death of those u.s. servicemen. it is like they wanted any iranians who were there to be gotten out of the way so that as iran tries, the u.s. and iran can separate state to state issues, but the u.s. will keep targeting them clearly. if you get a cease fire or some sort of truce in the gaza strip, that could have reverberations across the whole region.

it may be that these sort of attacks on u.s. forces start to stop, and the u.s. does not need to reply. with the houthis and the firing on ships, that stops as well. it comes down to what israel pays for these hostages. it sounds terrible to say, but the idea that you can get rid of hamas or remove them and release these hostages is not really a starter, so the question is -- can israel accept that hamas will remain with some role in the gaza strip? how will that work? there's a lot at stake here. >> what is the domestic support situation looking like within israel? >> polls show that it election was held now that netanyahu would lose. in a sense, for his own political survival, the more this goes on, there will not be any change, but he is a very

canny operator, but he needs to gauge what society will tolerate. there's a big groundswell. israel is very serious, historically it has been. when it comes to hostages, it wants those people brought out, but if you can square that with a very strong right wing, that you cannot negotiate with hamas, that maybe these people have to be sacrificed in order for the greater good to defeat this what they term and people, these questions will have to be resolved. >> looking at some of the other geopolitical headlines we are following, the u.s. senate has killed a bipartisan bill on the border and ukraine. with republicans rejecting the measure as it was unveiled. former president trump had criticized the legislation, and house speaker mike johnson said it would be dead on arrival in that chamber. majority leader chuck schumer now plans a separate vote on aid

for ukraine and israel without u.s. border provisions. the biden administration is planning a new effort to prevent foreign adversaries from accessing america's sensitive personal data. in order may be assigned as soon as next week. the plan focuses on preventing china in particular from being able to access data, including information on individuals' finances, genetic makeup, and voice patterns. pakistan will close its borders with afghanistan on thursday as voters head to the polls. the decision comes after at least 20 people were killed in the day before national elections. the former prime minister is expected to return to office with his biggest rival in prison and disqualified from running. >> just bringing your attention or our attention to some breaking heads crossing the

terminal right now. this is trade data from japan for the month of december. we saw the current account in a surplus for the period of december coming in at 744 billion again -- 744 billion yen , lower than what had been estimated of 1.13 trillion, but still an indication that the amount of in bed -- inbound tourism we have been seeing in japan, travels recovery to pre-pandemic levels or thereabouts. something to ease those concerns around the currency, given we had seen a dwindling balance of payments, particularly when we something that could havelevels, weakened purchasing power, but still something that could be offering some degree of relief to policymakers. we will have more ahead as we

count down to the open in tokyo. this is bloomberg. ♪ business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh

>> you are watching "daybreak australia." the head of bytedance's china operation is stepping down a

week after the company said it needed to make up lost ground in ai. the head of the chinese version of tiktok is leaving. bloomberg has learned bytedance will not seek a successor. the ceo said bytedance needed more urgency to catch up in the ai space. tesla shares jumped after bloomberg revealed that managers have been asked to identify which positions were critical and a possible precursor to layoffs. tesla has roughly doubled its workforce since 2022 around 140,000 people. uber has reported a gross bookings beating analyst estimates on strong local demand during the holiday period. gross bookings include delivery orders, right hails, and driver and merchant earnings. for the current period, uber sees earnings up to $38.5 billion with a midpoint about

wall street average estimates. >> in asia, we are very excited about the india market. the india market has been one that has always held a lot of promise, but we are seeing that promise come to fruition now. it is not just four wheelers, but three wheelers and the growth rates we are seeing in india are substantial, and we think that that business can continue to grow over the next five to 10 years. >> these are the stocks to watch when trade opens in korea and japan shortly. asia chip stocks, you can see here. tsmc posted a rise in monthly sales on the back of strong demand for chips. plus, keep an eye on payment stocks such as japan's gmo payment gateway as paypal forecast flat earnings this year.

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>> at the start of the session, we are still focusing in on that outperformance we are continuing to see for u.s. stocks, how much that will translate, that exceptionalism, how much markets continue that wall of worry. quick speaking of wall of worry, china heading into what should be an auspicious year, the year of the dragon, big changes on the eve of the year. we get more inflation or potentially deflation numbers today. clearly, they have to try to shake things up to make any meaningful