>> good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie. u.s. stocks hit another record with the s&p briefly topping 5000. japan joined the party with the nikkei at a 34 year high. chinese equities in hong kong slumped for a third straight day. chip designer arm adds 38 billion dollars into value after a record jump of 40%. the gain propels something to its biggest two day rally since 2020. l'oreal sales disappoint hit by weak demand from chinese travelers. we bring in numbers as they break in about one hour. let's check in on markets, because you had the fresh record from the s&p coming through briefly above the 5000 level and four straight days of gains were

u.s. stocks pushing through commentary from fed officials and expectations rate cuts may come later in the year. you futures down by .1 of 1%. ftse futures down about .1 of 1%. s&p futures pointing lower by .1 of 1% but still holding at the 5000 level. it nasdaq futures flood, 17, 875. if had an auction of debt, 25 billion it will taken by the markets. 10 year at 415. japanese yen in focus on the back of comments from the bank of japan suggesting easy policy will be maintained once they move but if negative rates. 149 on the yen. 8% upside for oil, geopolitics central to that.

big coin that a strong month, etf flows, expectations coming through for the cryptocurrency in april giving strength, up 2% on the cryptocurrency. let's cross over to asian markets and bring in avril hong who is standing by in singapore. what is standing up to you across markets? avril: we are seeing asian stocks lighting as we wrap up the week, and the nikkei still hovering at a multi-decade highs , but a lot of talk about what is capping gains. softbank is helping it to those levels, but it is the likes of nissan and honda among those slumping no things to this warning about freight rates and where they are headed in the future. japanese stocks have been helped along by the cheapness and the currency, and we have seen it

hovering at the 149.5 level after relatively dovish comments from the boj governor to parliament today, and that echoed what we heard from his deputy yesterday. hong kong markets on half day of trading, and they closed lower on the hang seng, .8 of 1%. if you wonder where we are going from here, it does not look too promising based on recent performance of the hang seng. it investors actually reduced long exposure when the hang seng rallied, so it does not bode well. something else to consider, let's look at the fx space as the yuan onshore is been hovering at the 27 level. at 720 seems to be the unofficial line in the sand for the central bank. together central bank we are watching is the rbnz, and the

anz bank prediction is for rate hikes to resume in february as well as in april, so the key read is jumping today. tom: thank you very much. treasury secretary janet yellen says u.s. regulators are monitoring risks facing nonbank mortgage lenders. she spoke at a senate banking committee hearing. >> if sock -- ipsoc is focusing on that because nonmortgage companies like deposits which banks have. there is concern in stressful market conditions we could see the failure of one of these. tom: let's bring in paul dobson for asian markets. what is your take and what we have been hearing from janet yellen? what it spells about the depths of concerns in washington d.c.?

>> this is a long-term risk, not an immediate risk, and if you look at the context in which the question was asked it was about how you were getting to grips with this are monitoring it, not is this something that is about to blow up in our face. interest rates have been at these levels for a sustained period of time, and there have not been any particular stresses faced by nonbank lenders, so it is more a case they should be monitoring it over the long-term, and that is the context in which this hearing was being heard and spoken. the fed will get ready to start easing rates, which should take pressure off mortgage repayments as well. tom: a longer-term risk, that context important. we think about the fed, cpi prints. some officials are going to be watching them. >> that is right, and it is not

the sort of thing everyone pays attention to most of the time, but last year when we had those revisions they were so much higher than what we have been pricing that it convinced everybody the fed needed to change its mindset and be more aggressive in terms of viking interest rates and keeping the mire for longer. one official was pointing this out is something to watch for. is the data as reliable as we hope it is? are we getting toward that soft landing, or is inflation still there, and if you look to some of the data we have had recently, the big payroll number with the wage growth in them and the prices payment we saw in the ism data. there are signs inflation is sticky, so this is a risk for the market. if we get another revision higher in overall numbers were inflation, that could be banned -- bad news for markets and signal policy will be cap tighter for longer. tom: when it comes to cpi data,

it today, and this dovetails what we are cheering from fed officials that justifies what we have been hearing. as you step back this friday and wrap up what we have been hearing from them, where demand on where you think the fomc is at? >> about 100 policymakers all across the globe have been telling us we are heading toward a cut at point this year. we are into neutral mode now, but not yet. you hear it from the boe, the ecb. they cannot not convinced. they have been adamant about it, and that is reflected in the selloff we have seen in bonds, the higher interest rates as well. that is where we are with fed policy, and in that context it is interesting, new zealand, people are starting that they may need to hike.

we were surprised, but the rbnz may not be done with its hiking cycle yet, and if the rest of the central bankers around the world are paying attention, that is one more sign that they may need to keep policy tighter for longer than the market is pricing and at the moment. tom: chinese markets, mainland markets are closed as they start the holiday, and hong kong markets have been a half day. where are you on these asian markets? where do you stand post lunar new year? >> it is hard to look beyond anything other than chinese equity benchmarks and whether we get some signs of support and stabilization and pledges to reassert control over the markets and the economy during this lunar new year when we come back, the market has been getting excited about more

stimulus coming. some loud signs of stock stabilization that would be announced. we do not have confirmation. we got the removal of the csrc head and the replacement. that is like a football team, you change the manager to give the team a new lease of life. we change the manager. it will they announce new policies and give us a going forward as we come back from the lunar new year break? maybe that is enough to restore some of the confidence, but over the lunar new year i would caution probably the data we will see on travel, tourism, box office visits will not be looking good to give it where consumer confidence is, so something needs to happen for the markets to lift chinese equities again. tom: the high-frequency data out of china over the holiday will be interesting. the gravitational pull of the china story.

thank you. shares in chip designer arm sword -- soared in a blockbuster earnings report. the chief executive said arm is poised to be a key beneficiary of the ai boom. >> this is really the result of strategies that were put in place a number of years ago that are now coming to fruition. >> when we think about the vindication, when we think about basically more of your technology going into more types of equipment, you managed to see diversification out of phones. paint this the strategy going forward? you are basically making the chips. how do you see that relationship going forward with qualcomm? >> a lot of folks did not

understand the company well and where we fit, and we have a lot of growth, but arm is in a lot of devices people may not think about. the tesla vehicle, ford f-150, ring smart camera, the samsung tv, so just about every device you can think of has arm inside, and every device you can think of needs more compute particularly as ai is driving the new demand cycle. >> talk about ai, analysts saying you are a beneficiary from ai, but where does the focus become. you were at nvidia before and they are all about ai accelerators. >> right now nvidia is a great partner. their super chip uses a lot of arm cpu's, which is a great

solution to high and ai training. when we start moving to smaller devices, smartphones and pcs, ai it will run there too. if you look at recent announcements by samsung and google relative to their smartphones, there are a lot of things about search and having the browser golf and research in a circle, that is ai. what we are seeing is a drive for more compute capacity to run these ai algorithms, some that people do not know what they are yet, but what designers need to do is future proof designs with more compute, and that is driving a strong licensing cycle for terms and demand. tom: the arm ceo speaking to bloomberg technology on a day when arm had a stunning what you percent rally. let's get back to what else is happening on the earnings front, switching from technology but to

the luxury space. we had the disappointment around l'oreal and self demand coming from china. hermes has significant exposure. the company will be reporting in 45 minutes time. on the macro front, economic data coming up from january, january cpi, the inflation rent finalized at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time giving us more color in context around germany, and on the inflation story uscp i revision. we know that officials are looking at these revisions. less than 20% chance of a cut in march. in a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can go to db go -- dayb go.

ramaphosa plans to tackle the energy crisis. more on the state of the nation address next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the south african president has given his state of the nation address pledging to overall that health care, and tackle the logistics and energy crises. >> we have laid the foundation for growth through far-reaching economic reforms, and an

ambitious investment drive, and an infrastructure program starting to yield results. tom: i am joined by jennifer zabasaja. what are the key points the president is trying to drive home to his nation and viewers? >> if you look at the papers it has been a muted response to what we heard from the president. this is one that called it a hollow speech devoid of truth and speaks of stagnation. it was about two hours long, and it was really the president going through 30 years ofanc rule defending initiatives you talked about. he talked about how there have been a number of achievements, including broadening access to education and health care. like south african sink the opportunities have been greater since apartheid, to relieve the

concern, it may be the sentiment this morning is due to the fact the speech was devoid of any details about the president and this administration plans to address a lot of the issues this country is facing, which include energy issues, electricity, adjustable challenges, unemployment, which stands at 32%. he did not give much insight or offer much insight into cracking down on what many people have been concerned about, which is corruption in the country. i think people were looking for a little more meat to give them more confidence heading into the selection and did not get too much of that. tom: that front page reaction was something, so the list of challenges for this nation and the president and a year expected to be an election year for south africa. how does it time to the politics? >> the concern, there are 30

years of anc rule, and a number of polls suggest the anc are at risk of losing their majority. that could have potentially changing effects of the economy, so a number of analysts were looking for the speech to not just be political but also to dig into the economics behind it and the plans to change things moving forward, and as i mentioned we deducted too much into that, but not helping the situation for the president. really having a difficult time, among the bottom five currencies attract among emerging markets from bloomberg, and we have also seen a number of hits to the economy. i mentioned unemployment, outflows, so when you think about the reasons why people are going to vote and why they would vote for the anc, we did not

hear too much when the president other than reassuring people that it has been a better past three decades and apartheid, but what does that mean going forward? i think it is unclear. tom: apartheid being something of a lobar to say the least. jennifer, thank you. a crucial election year for that nation. is carbon capture the way to reach net zero by the middle of the century? we will be taking deep dive into the concept, and we will take you to some live images from iceland about 20 miles from reykjavik. this is a live volcano eruption quite close to the top tourist attraction, the blue lagoon. you can see the live pictures of

that lava flow right now. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." carbon capture and storage are central to strategies of world governments as they aim to reach decarbonizing goals of by 2050, but the tech is expensive and has been seen as a way to maintain production of aging fossil fuel power stations. somewhat controversial as well. i am joined by the head of the technology, industry, and innovation at bloomberg nef. let's talk about this technology and the potential promises and challenges around it. it is controversial. what are the prospects? >> it is controversial but is

become more recognized by mainstream governments unnecessary it is. even the eu has released a strategy planning to implement ccs as a huge driver of our goals. although we have a route to decarbonizing power and transport, we do not know how industry will decarbonizing. in our scenario ccs is an essential part of net zero. tom: where do we need to get to go? >> it is slow right now. there are 57 tons of capture. it is only being used to process natural gas emissions, so it is an industry that is not suiting the needs of where we needed to go, but there are lots of capacity. we are seeing 420 million tons being announced to be built.

we just need so much more. we need about 7.3 gigatons, which is 128 times more than we have today. tom: does europe get us there? how consequential is europe's role going to be? >> europe comprises 30% of announced capacity, so that is significant, and most of that is the u.k. there are plenty of things to store co2 under the sea. we are seeing lots of cement plant announce carbon capture, industrial hubs announcing as well because of the eu ets. today europe does not tax industry emissions, but it will begin to in two years time, and that will become expensive for steel mills. tom: they have that does care

your window, they have got to adjust to that. talk to us about the costs of this technology and the investment that is needed. what are you seeing there? >> it makes everything more expensive. these plants can cost millions or hundreds of millions to build. it means more investment to date. last year we invested $11 billion in financing assets getting built. that is a much bigger record than previous years, but 11 billion is a drop in the ocean. we need 450 billion every of this decade to get on track with net zero goals. it is 40 times more than what was invested last year. tom: there is a long way to go, but the technology is evolving. thank you for the deep dive on

what is happening around carbon capture and europe's consequential role as well. let's check on these markets on a day where we reflect on the first records that were broken yesterday on the s&p crossing above the 5000 level. european stocks are down but .1 of 1%. ftse futures pointing higher by .1 of 1%. still holding about the 5000 level but pointing to profit taking. nasdaq futures 17,861. the former fox news host tucker carlson airs an interview with russian president vladimir puti

>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm tom mackenzie and these are the stories that set your agenda. u.s. stocks hit another record with the s&p briefly topping 5000. japan joins the party with the nikkei at a 34 year high but chinese equities in hong kong slump for a third straight day. chip designer arm adds $38 billion in value after a record jump of 38%. the game propels softbank to its biggest two-day rally since 2020. and a let down, sales disappoint at l'oreal. we will bring you numbers as they break. so earnings still part of the express as we check on these markets. the s&p powered back above for at least across the 5000 level for the first time, a record high. futures pointing to softness,

maybe profit taking, down 0.1%. european futures lower by 0.1%. caution across these markets this friday. ftse 100 futures pointing to gains of a 10th of 1%, let's split the board and lacrosse asset. interesting stories about oil and the japanese yen comments from the boj. 4.14 on the u.s. 10 year with the u.s. treasury successfully issuing 25 billion dollars of long dated debt. that seems to assuage some of the concerns around the appetite within these markets. 149 on the japanese yen, a gain on the back of comments from the boj governor. there will still be soft policy even as they push out negative rates whenever that happens. brent down zero point 2% after a strong week for oil on the back of the geopolitical tensions. bitcoin at $46,163 as we look at

etf flows. and potential halving in april. let's get to geopolitics. putin says russia has not achieved its objectives in ukraine as the war nears its two-year mark. speaking to the tucker carlson network, the russian president said he would consider negotiations only if the u.s. stops supplying weapons to ky the russiani leader who has overseen thev. interview to western media since the invasion of ukraine. >> what we are conveying to the u.s. leadership, if you really want to start fighting -- to stop fighting, you need to stop supplying weapons. it will be over within a few weeks, that is it. then we can agree on some terms. tom: joined now by roslyn matheson.

why did putin give this interview? tucker carlson falsely said he was the only one who tried to get this interview. that is not true. why did putin give it to tucker carlson? what messages the russian president trying to send? >> with tucker carlson he got some straightforward questioning. and he got to give a history lesson from his perspective leading up to why he said he had to invade ukraine. but of course why now is the interesting question. maybe it is directed at a russian audience. vladimir putin is coming up for election soon. there is not any doubt he's going to get back in but having clips of him being interviewed by tucker carlson stating his case for why he had to invade ukraine, how the war is going, how he sees the west as fundamentally trying to undermine russia, that plays really well at home with his audience. maybe that is an aspect. is he sensing those fissures we

are seeing with ukraine? we are seeing big debate in the u.s. about supplying ukraine with weapons. we are seeing people talk about, at what point does ukraine need to consider negotiating? maybe he is looking for rifts he can exploit. tom: he has been adept at that in the past. what did he say about the trajectory of the conflict? rosalind: he said he has not achieved his objectives which is his standard line. what he did say calls back to the point, he said if the u.s. would stop supplying ukraine with weapons, if they would do that, maybe he would consider negotiating with ukraine. he said ukraine has shown no desire to talk to him. sort of pushing the ball into their court in a way. he thinks it is up to them to come to him. which again suggests he feels he is in a decent position right now with this war heading toward its third year with no end in sight. he sort of indicating maybe. but there is no sense he is really truly interested in

negotiating. that he's interested in that or that the u.s. is going to stop support for ukraine. it is planting those seeds perhaps. tom: rosalind matheson. thank you for the context on that interview and what it tells us about what the russian president is thinking as this conflict grinds on. president biden has called israel's military campaign in gaza over the top. biden announced he is seeking a sustained pause in the fighting to help palestinian civilians. let's get more from bloomberg's dana grayish who is in dubai. the white house, these were frank comments from a key ally for israel. dana: indeed, this is an escalation of the criticism of netanyahu as israel prepares for the next phase of its operation in gaza directed at rafah which is a border region with egypt.

that is likely to be problematic given that hundreds of thousands of palestinians have fled to that area. as instructed by the israeli government during the early weeks of the war. biden expressed concern about those operations, saying he would not support any offensive that does not take into account civilian casualties. this is underscoring rising tensions between israel and the u.s. that have surfaced in recent months and more recently with israel's objections to the hostage deal and pretty much a lot of the u.s. proposals. tom: we have seen antony blinken on the ground in the region this week trying to nail down that potential cease fire. netanyahu rejecting that this week. where does that leave the israeli leader? dana: netanyahu is already in a tough spot. he is trying to tread a narrow path between keeping the far right in his coalition, and

cooperating with the united states. the longer the war continues, the more pressure israel and netanyahu will be under from the u.s., from international partners, and from the potential partners they are trying to forge new ties with including saudi arabia, which was very strict with its comments earlier this week saying there will be no ties with israel unless, quote unquote, the aggression on gaza stops and israel calls for the establishment of a palestinian state. tom: bloomberg's dana kraisch. this conflict of course continues. let's get to other stories crossing the bloomberg terminal. president biden has blasted a special counsel report on his handling of classified information for raising questions about his age and mental acuity.

the justice department report says biden knowingly stored and disclose classified information that was kept at his homes but stop short of charging him with any crimes. the report described the 81-year-old as a, quote, elderly man with a poor memory. >> my memory is fine. take a look at what i have done since i have become president. nobody thought i could pass any of the things i got. how did that happen? tom: the u.s. supreme court appears post to keep donald trump on this year's presidential ballots. both conservative and liberal justices have questioned whether colorado has the power to exclude him on the grounds of insurrection. for his alleged role in the january 6 capital right. trump is seeking a broad ruling that would end the push to kick him off ballots in several states. shares open lower in pakistan as

the country's vote count faces. delays. . the widely expected outcome of a return to power for the three-time premier is looking less certain. the party have jailed the former prime minister imran khan. it is too early to know if assertions are correct. switching focus because coming up after the break, after disappointment, markets react positively to paring yesterday. we will discuss luxury, cosmetic sectors, the role of the chinese consumer therein. that is next, this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: happy friday. let's look at other stores on the terminal.

plans to leave equatorial guinea within months ending almost three decades of oil drilling that made the country an opec member. the small west african nation became one of the world's hottest provinces around the turn-of-the-century. output has since dried up along with foreign investment. bloomberg has learned saudi arabia is set to higher banks including citi, goldman, and hsbc in a share sale of aramco. also said to be in talks with other banks. the full offering would raise $20 billion making it among the biggest in recent years. bloomberg understands the electric car battery firm steered by mercedes and stellantis is close to raising 4.4 billion euro. the automotive sales company is also in talk with banks said to

have debt deals soon. battery plants are key for europe's effort to set up a supply chain to rival asia. we have had a mixed picture from the luxury and cosmetic space this week as the sector grapples with inflationary pressures and softness in china. to look ahead to earnings in under 15 minutes, i'm joined by bloomberg's gerling on it -- caroline connan. what do you take from the earnings we saw last night? what did i tell us? caroline: if you look at sales, they were disappointing in the fourth quarter but missing estimates. somehow the strong demand they had third quarter softened at the end of the year. especially in china which is of course a key market if you look at north asia in the fourth quarter revenues were down 6.2%.

that is partly due to scrutiny. this practice you may know, of chinese travelers buying on behalf of others when they travel. so of course the scrutiny is impacting travel retail at l'oreal which is huge for the luxury division. also the fragrances. however, the good news is that the sales for the u.s. were up more than 9% above estimates in the fourth quarter. europe also had double-digit growth. overall, more resilience than some u.s. competitors for example like estee lauder which announced last week 3000 job cuts. tom: so a bit of resilience,

strength, weakness coming through in the chinese demand, so strength in europe and the u.s.. we talked to the luxury analysts at bloomberg and others who talk about a divergent picture when it comes to luxury retail. lms is reporting later. are they more resilient than their counterparts when it comes to that china demand story? >> hermes is like an outsider. the report you mentioned in 15 minutes from that. they are the ultimate -- the ultraluxury. when the aspirational consumer has to get some spending, the chinese consumer has to get some spending on cheaper luxury products, they actually still want to spend on this one luxury piece that actually conveys status. that is usually hermes. according to barclays.

hermes has become the second most desirable brand after chanel. really they have mastered scarcity, exclusive video. is really exclusive. it is really an outsider in the sector. tom: the outlier when it comes to a positive outlook for hermes . bloomberg's caroline connan with a preview of that. thank you for joining us out of paris. for a bloomberg scoop, why companies grab and goto have started talks for a merger. a deal could create a blockbuster combination. softbank and uber are the biggest shareholders in grab. bloomberg deals reporter manuel joins us now. what can you tell us about the talks?

manuel: a fascinating story, we were able to get the scoop on this. they have been on and off-again for a while. the companies perhaps are getting together because they are faced by a lot of competition. they are seeing new startups up-and-coming. they really need to explore a combination of the two and make a formidable company that can compete and grow and stay profitable. profitability has become a key factor. in a region that is growing, you are talking some of the fastest-growing economies in the world, the potential is great for growth but they also need to make money there. the companies are coming to terms that perhaps it makes

sense to combine for a stronger company. tom: is that what drove these discussions? that need, that focus on profit? manuel: definitely that's part of it. the idea there is new management coming into place also solves part of the issue. there have been failed attempt in the past. as new management comes in perhaps they are more open to the idea of combining shareholders also are like perhaps, more comfortable with the idea. at the end of the day, whether you are a shareholder in one of the two, they can be part of the great company going forward. tom: we are going to bring in

the catch. regulators. are they going to give this the green light? manuel: that is a great question. as the companies evaluate, we get a sense this will be probably a bit of a marathon rather than a quick sprint. one of the key issues they will have to analyze is regulatory approvals. particularly a transformative deal like this one affects millions of people. regulars will be key. it will be very closely watched. it will be a difficult road ahead -- difficult road ahead but we will evaluate it to make sure it will work. tom: what does it mean for uber's stake? manuel: as you rightly said, they are one of the biggest shareholders in grab. shareholders are supportive of a

transaction that could be transformative, that could be positive for everybody and that would make strategic sense. at the end of the day shareholders tend to support those deals that make strategic sense in the long term. for any other shareholders, this will make some sense if it came to fruition down the road. tom: thank you very much indeed. go to an grab and those talks being revived. now veteran emerging markets investor mark mobius says china and hong kong shares are becoming attractive speaking in an interview with bloomberg tv. >> i think we are going to see good opportunities now. the hong kong market as you can see has been driven down to very low levels. of course it could go lower. we are now beginning to see

people make comparisons with india and china and hong kong. beginning to think hey, maybe india has gone too far up and is an opportunity for outbound china stocks to perform. i am not predicting that. but i think people are beginning to look at the valuations and think that perhaps there's going to be a good opportunity there. chinese officials are trying their best to get confidence, get people to be confident again. you must remember at the end of the day it is the chinese investors who drive the chinese market. not foreign investors. the first order of business will be for them to instill confidence in the chinese investors minds. but i think that will eventually come once this housing problem is over. it will take some time, as you know, most chinese investors have money in property more than in stocks.

tom: mark mobius speaking to bloomberg. let's give you the context in terms of the selloff we have seen in china. we have seen a three year grind lower, 7 trillion dollars wiped off chinese stocks over that period. that compared to 2015. you had a major moment in terms of the route in chinese equities, historical moment for the chinese markets. this time around it has extended further than the six months. three years we have seen $7 trillion wiped off the stock market. the csi 300 down 42% over that timeframe. china stocks up this week but there is a need for support. you see efforts to stamp out shortselling. that's the context given what we have been hearing from mark mobius around investing in china. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak. if you wanted a gauge in terms of geopolitical risks and how to invest around that, with a focus on the humanitarian impact, money markets of course, investors continue to focus on this. what you have been able to do is play it for maersk in the last few weeks and months. that has started to adjust, the shipping company on higher rates. oil has not been the way to play these geopolitical risks until this week. oil up 6% this week as you can see. that relationship has now changed. oil has started to react geopolitical tensions because of course the other side of the oil story is softer demand and increased output from the u.s. something to bear in mind as we way what netanyahu has been

saying in israel, dismissing peace planes or the idea of a cease-fire. oil up this week above $81 per barrel. let's switch the board and talk about money market funds. the key theme we have been watching his fed speakers pushing back against the idea you are going to get a cut in march. less than a 20% chance now and the money markets have adjusted. 7 billion u.s. dollars move into money markets this week on the expectation rates will be held higher for longer. money markets are reacting to that narrative. plenty more coming up. markets today is next. happy friday. this is bloomberg. ♪

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