haidi: welcome to deborah kostroun you in sydney holiday themed start to the trading week with lunar new year accounting for market closures. before that, trading in sydney. looking pretty unchanged. future is pretty muted. looks like an early gain of about .25 percent as stocks come online. looking at the aussie dollar meantime, 6522. we did see that falling slightly, but closing last week up by about .25% to arrest a five week slide we had seen. look through the lens of the weekly filter. the trend line supports the close below that. potentially 64 could be on the right looking at the technicals. bonds we are seeing both aussie and kiwi bond sovereigns

continuing that a client with the january jobs or board for australia due out thursday. some consumer confidence numbers are coming out this week as well and in the labor market is likely just show employment increasing, but likely not enough to cool off the big drop we saw in the previous spread. kiwi bonds also following. as of week starts and ends with the appearance of the rbnz governor today presenting on the financial stability report and annual report from 2022-20 23 before a parliamentary committee. kiwi stocks on the back foot about .5% lower. the kiwi dollar holding at 64 -- 6148. huge blocks of markets across station closed today. some going into the rest of the week as well. china, hong kong, japan, singapore, korea, malaysia, and vietnam with most of this markets observing the lunar new year holidays. u.s. futures at the moment.

u.s. stocks reached quite a milestone friday. the s&p 500 closing about 5000. the big tech rally continues to be revived. also, on repriced expectations that may still cut rates and soon. as of the futures look muted. it's a big week of earnings we are headed into for the u.s.. the nasdaq looks a little softer as well. finally, a quick look at crude. we are seeing a little weakness in trading in brent. oil for the week cementing a weekly gain. if the prospects for a cease-fire in gaza continuing to fade. we are hearing about preparations for an attack on southern gaza. the geopolitical risk premium for crude is continuing to build now. let's look at the week ahead. inflation numbers out of india, japan, and the u.s. with that son asked when the fed will cut rising. economists forecast cpi in the

u.s. continuing to slow at the start of the year. gdp prints to out for japan and malaysia and australia reporting jobs numbers and south korea labor market numbers do out as well. in indonesia it's all about politics with the president wrapping up his tenure. the president -- country holds its first three way election in 20 years when state. we will be there for that and to get singapore's budget statement friday. now, analysis on what to watch bringing in the deputy chief economist at amp. i felt like i had not drawn breath looking at what is ahead. what's at the top of your radar? diana: the big thing for markets is whether we see inflation have a resurgence. there are risks on the horizon for that. global's shifting and container costs are starting to pick up based on the middle east and the u.s. cpi out this week i think will tell us where those in for

alicia nehring -- inflationary pressures are going. what is important is due now look at the annualized one month or three months figures for inflation. if you just look at your changes you probably are not getting the right forward-looking picture of price growth because we had large price rises last year. you are looking at inflation about 3% monthly, above where the fed would like it to be but much lower than one year ago. that is really what will drive market pricing for the federal reserve and interest rates and i think it is really the main driver of markets right now. if we see an increased risk of fed rate cuts prized for march it will put further downward pressure on bond yields and i think would be positive for the share market as well. haidi: the question is also when the fed feels like wait and see given resilience across most parts of the economy. diana: the economy looks resilient looking at growth

numbers in the u.s.. the december quarter was extremely strong with growth over 4%. there are signs of cracks in the labor market in the u.s.. the time it takes for people that are unemployed to get jobs has been increasing a lot. so, the duration of an implement for workers is rising. when you look at on employment rates across some states as well , a lot of those have moved up by .3%-.5% in the u.s. and on some indicators, like the sam rule economists use that could technically be called a recession in those areas. i think the labor market in the u.s. is definitely slowing and wage growth is coming down. i think that in terms of growth numbers in the u.s. we will see much lower growth figures this year. haidi: we very rarely talk about the china growth story and how much impact it will have on major economies. i think most fed speakers have been fairly sanguine about that.

is that a risk going into what now looks like a pretty prolonged structural weakness? diana: china of the past 10 years has been adding close to percentage point to global growth every year, a huge amount, pretty much one third of global growth. so the fact that chinese potential growth has moved from the average at 5%-6% year on year to now about 4% needs a long-term global growth will probably be closer to 2.5%-two .6% every year rather than the 3.6 -- 2.6% every year rather than the 3% we are used to that will have impact on import and export growth especially in developed economies. it will drag down the potential growth rate for major economies like australia and the u.s. and it will be a long-term negative for global growth. haidi: we saw the aussie dollar maybe not reflect the proxy

weakness we sometimes see through china. do you think that correlation between the two economies might be a little weaker now? diana: the last few years as shown australia more resilient to weakness in china then we would have been used to. we have had a lot of negative in the trade relationship between austria and china that improved the past few months. australia was not hit significantly from a lot of tariffs introduced for agricultural exports from australia. i think that the australian economy has actually been very resilient to the weakness in china. can it continue forever? i guess we have to find other growth offsets. have been lucky commodity prices have held up extremely well the past few years despite lower volumes of exports to china. that has been very -- been one very big offset here in australia. haidi: how strong is the pressure for the rbnz to cut sooner? diana: i don't think there is pressure on them now because when you look at the broad-based

economic figures, i don't think anything is really signaling they need to cut right now. inflation is still too high year in australia. -- here in australia but i think that by the time we get to the middle of the year things will look quite different because the labor market will weaken and labor market strength was one reason why china's economy held up a lot better last year. despite the fact interest rates went up and inflation was higher consumers were able to offset the weakness in purchasing power with a strong earnings growth from being employed and i think that will change. we see unemployment rising to 4.5% i the middle of the year. it is 3.9%. and the consumer picture will look a lot weaker in a few months. but as we stand now, there is not any pressure on the rba to cut interest rates. haidi: it's a big political year both with conflicts ongoing and elections, indonesia heading to the polls this weekend and of course culminating in the u.s. election. how much of that overlay are you

mindful love? diana: the biggest risk to markets with geopolitical events, 50% of the world population is going to some sort of general or legislative election this year. the biggest risk to markets is around volatility and if there is a negative event. then, we tend to see share markets fall based on that reaction. given we have all these elections, i say the biggest risk to market is we get more volatility this year. unfortunately, we could see performance of shares have very negative days. then, that's not this early to say shares cannot rebound once the geopolitical risk is priced out. it is just the initial reaction from shermer can be quite negative if they deemed the geopolitical event to be a negative for long-term growth. haidi: great to have you with us diana mousina deputy chief economist at amt. today's edition of daybreak,

terminal subscribers go to dayb . it is in the mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. customize your settings to get the news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg.

berks a hugely popular tenure as president and indonesia's first three-way election in 20 years. well indonesia continue along the path of free elective foreign policy or will his successor lead the country in a new direction? keep it tuned to bloomberg for live coverage from jakarta and all the results and analysis you need. indonesia decides. coverage begins wednesday on bloomberg television. context changes everything.

haidi: president joe biden urged prime minister benjamin netanyahu to shield civilians in gaza from an israeli military operation in the southern city of roth -- rafah. the white house read out after a phone call between the two leaders features pledges by netanyahu that israel had a plan to keep civilians out of harm's way. >> roth as -- rafah is a small percentage of gaza, 10%, 15%. >> there is an estimated 1.4 million people in that area now. they cannot just disappear. where they're supposed to go? >> the areas we have cleared north of rafah, there are plenty of areas there and we are working out a detailed plan to do so. haidi: let's bring in bloomberg's michael heath. more than one million refugees

already there after going there to seek refuge from bombardment in the north. what are they expected to go and is there a plan? michael: netanyahu always talks a good game. there will be plans. there is room to the north for them to go. as you said there are more than one million people there that have all fled to this area as the one side. it is just hard to believe, given what we have seen in the past three or four months that israel does havec this under control. because, what we have seen, really, is a lot of indiscriminate attacks that, if the israeli military feels there is a target to be hit, they do not hesitate to go in there. on israel's side, obviously, what is happening with the hamas operatives is a day move from gathering of refugees to another gathering of refugees. so it's not as if israel is not right there is something to deal with their it is just how to deal with it. i think israel's credibility on

this front has been degraded pretty heavily. about whether they will try and distinguish clearly between civilians and operatives. i think it's very difficult to say at this stage that you can have confidence in they will do that. haidi: in a lot of ways at this point there are questions about the longevity of the conflict in terms of operations on the ground and how israel is funding this. they will have to sell a record amount of bonds this year, perhaps, more comp equated with the recent downgrade friday. michael: exactly right. they do fund a lot of their debt through domestic sources. that helps them and keeps down the cost, etc.. but, in the downgrade what was written was they were talking about the functioning of legislative and executive institutions and i think it is a bit of a -- i mean, you don't have politics too much in these sorts of things, but there's a lot going on with that government there now. right-wing supporters that are

basically spokespeople for settlers, a major problem in this whole concept here as well, there were issues with the judiciary. will that keep going? a poll that came out sunday showed netanyahu and his coalition losing office if i election was held today. it is sort of in their interest or drag on the conflict somewhat as well. not to be too crass about it. it is a war, at the end of the day. but there are so many moving parts here. israel's economy is fundamentally strong. but, they really do need to get their workers back into jobs and paying taxes and revenue and that sort of thing. so, the conflict has myriad aspects. it is one to watch. haidi: our bloomberg editor michael heath there watching everything for us. former u.s. president donald from spark -- donald trump said

he once told a european leader that he would abandon nato members to a russian invasion if they did not do for -- not me to spending commitments. let's bring in rdc editor tony chaska. what was the white -- reaction from the white house? tony: the white house condemned trump's actions and president biden through his reelection campaign office called them appalling and dangerous. what have -- which has a sort of been the general tone from democrats and also from some republicans. old line republicans in congress who, if you like, are foreign policy hawks. they sort of hark back to a consensus of america's role in the world which, of course, trump has not accepted. he showed that again with those comments. haidi: to be fair, i mean,

similar comments criticizing nato and the funding of nato have been made when he was president. what are reactions that we are getting from european leaders? are they taking it seriously or is this something they are taking in stride? tony: somewhat in between. obviously they are taking it seriously. but trump in essence is right when he says he keeps saying this at his campaign rallies. i forced the europeans to pony up more money for nato's common kitty, if you like. you talk to europeans and that clearly, or mostly, is actually true. so, in the sense that they have already been through this, they kind of, i think, can anticipate much better how to play this or -- were he to return to the

white house, and, they have something to show, partly because of the war in ukraine, that has led them to the increasing defense budgets. so, i think in europe there is a sense, and there has been for a while, even before trump made this latest comment that harks back to what -- how he handled europe in his first term, there was a sense, there has been a sense in europe that, well, we know how -- we went through this once already. we hope to be able to handle it better. that does not take away from some very fulsome condemnations we got out of europe over the last 36 hours. haidi: it might be super bowl sunday but we are seeing u.s. politicians headed back to work before that is try to make some

progress on this deal to support ukraine, israel, taiwan, and humanitarian assistance in gaza. are they expected to make progress? tony: i think the short answer to that is yes. the short story of the whole episode, which has actually been going on for months, is the senate and -- both the senate and house managers -- measures that tried to combine the u.s. border security with aid to ukraine, israel, and other allies, and a few other things, have failed. so, now there is an effort by the senate which is led by democrats, but, also, seeing a fair amount of republican support for this foreign aid bill, i believe it is $96

billion. there was a procedural about this sunday. that created the way for further action. i think we need to have some patients. but, the latest betting is that this week it might actually come to a head. as might come to a vote in the senate, which does not necessarily mean it will pass the house. but, that would be the next step. haidi: rdc editor tony czuczka there. coming up the gop presidential candidate nikki haley will be live on bloomberg surveillance tv and radio. catch the data conversation monday 7:30 am in new york, 11:30 p.m. here in sydney. let's get to paul allen with other political headlines. paul: supporters of the former pakistan prime minister staged protests in key cities across the country has two rival parties held talks to form a government even though independence mostly backed by kn han won the most seats in

thursday's polls. his party called for peaceful. the election commission of pakistan denied the claims. the philippine coast guard since chinese vessels made it dangerous blocking maneuvers in the south kind -- south china sea this month with tensions persisting over --. during its nine-day assignment near scarborough shoal. china says the philippines activities were an illegal intrusion and measures taken by the chinese aside were professional and standardized. the biden administration is launching a $5 billion semiconductor research consortium to bolster chip design and hardware innovation in the u.s.. he had form utterly established the national semiconductor technology center which plans to invest hundreds of millions of dollars into workforce development and offer grounds

for semiconductor research. officials are working to prevent china from benefiting from the funding. more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg.

haidi: you are watching daybreak australia. u.s. futures setting up more muted given we had quite a milestone in the friday session. the s&p 500 topping the 5000 level with a renewed valley across big -- renewed rally across big tech hopes the fed will soon cut rate bolstering the outlook when it comes to corporate profits and it's a big week for earnings ahead as well. fed expectations with slower u.s. inflation set to further fuel optimism with fed rate cuts. the pulse of u.s. inflation likely continued to slow at the start of the year and we are expecting the core consumer price index that comes in, that a better-than-expected picture,

3.7% expectations on the year for january. nasdaq futures softer i .1% despite tech being a big driver of equities being tapped to close at an all-time high with the 5th street -- straight week of games -- gains for u.s. stocks. since the pandemic low of march 2022 we have seen the s&p 500 more than doubling particularly driven by a lot of ai names. the dow off pretty flat at the moment. let's look at trading in currencies. the dollar pretty mixed against g10 peers in the early part of the sydney trade. of course inflation headlines will be top of the data slate today. that slowing cpi rate will feed into what we see with the u.s. dollar, which is for the bloomberg dollar index a little softer at the moment. dollar-yen holding steady. we saw .6% weekly advance, we are seeing the aussie dollar

mixed trading there. it managed to close higher last week to put an end what has been five weeks weakness for the aussie dollar trading against the greenback. the euro has been pretty steady after ending the last week unchanged. watching the kiwi 6147. we will watch for the commentary out of the rbnz governor as he presents to a parliamentary committee on financial stability. that report today as well as another appearance at the end of the week. the bloomberg dollar index there . we are looking at six straight weekly gains they're going into a seventh week. more to come here on daybreak australia as we have this holiday at the start of the trading week in asia.

♪ >> bitcoin is making a run

towards the $49,000 high. kiwi up 13% so far this year eating the tech stocks -- mega cap tech stocks. carolyn, great to have you with us. this time last year we started to see a turnaround for the fate of the asset and asset class. what is your outlook, the trajectory we see from here after the gains from the past few months? >> thank you for having me. i think after the etf went live we some rumors but we have seen a continued self buying in the market, the bonds we see, we are

nowhere near able market. this is not a retail rally, per se. what we can expect across 24 and what the data shows is a graduation return of existing clients and new money coming into the market and history tells us this is the precursor for 8.24 into 25. >> it is interesting you talking about a stabilization of sentiment. is that fundamentally for the credibility and the further development of this asset class what we would be wanting to see? >> certainly. i think probably the last time we saw this kind of price movement three years ago there was a lot of talk in the market that the money does not know what it is doing but this is not

retail driven, it looks and feels like it is post etf, certainly looking at what blackrock and fidelity have done in terms of growing on the back of their etf volumes, potentially driving some of this volume and not what we have seen previously so it speaks to the stability, increasing institutional money into this asset class and it started with bitcoin and i think it will end with bitcoin and this is just the beginning as predict did, i think. haidi: when it comes to skeptics, have they been washed out but what we see in the successful etf launch? >> i think we can watch the skeptics fully out of the market but they have a role to play. we do need some exuberance -- exuberance taper down from time to time because certainly when you look at the previous bowl run things got ahead of

themselves and that is true for any cycle, certainly looking at tech stocks similarly, so skeptics play a role however those naysayers who are completely ruling out the role of bitcoin are doing themselves a disservice. i do not think anyone can now say, it has been 2013 and we have not seen improvements in bitcoin and what it will bring. this weekend is chinese new year and super bowl, both of which you take -- both of which take the trader away from retail and yet we see the price increase and movement in the market. it is not just mom-and-pop retail, it is more significant so it will be good for the naysayers and skeptics to have a look at their previous hypotheses. haidi: do you recommend accumulating before the hardening?

talking about the rumor, is it a done deal we will see a bowl run shortly after that? >> looking at where the data is tracking and the market sentiment it feels as though that is a consensus opinion. i feel in the industry the mood shifted toward the last half of last year so there are indicators and we saw an uptick and then in the latter half in the last three months of last year it was accelerated and as we saw it was a view shared across the market. when i talk with other peers in the crypto industry in australia and around the world that -- there is an expectation that this year will see a return on into 25 we also have the bitcoin harbin coming up this year to increase supply further, the

number one and number three ranking performing funds in australia, certainly a view bitcoin is underpriced and it is our a poignant institute -- it is our opinion institutional money coming in they will step up supply and put increasing floor under the bitcoin price and plenty in the industry are bullish on the bitcoin for 24 and 25 and the cost of all crypto assets across the market. haidi: as you have spoken about, perhaps less so in terms of interest and ability to partake with australian retail, right? >> it has been an issue for us and a theme repeatedly, the need for the regulation here in australia to support and shore up australia crypto investor,

they have not gone away, this tool on the sidelines waiting to come in, we can see it from our own data set and money waiting to come in on the australian exchange ready to move in and perhaps looking overseas and what we see in the rest of asia pacific, what they see out of europe, and the need for us to remain competitive given the importance of financial services to the australian economy, you can be sure there will be a turn at the institutional level for this so we as an economy have to provide the appropriate frameworks, that is the hope across 24 and 25 locally that we will see that but given this is such a global game we are looking overseas to see what is happening in dubai and asia pacific so it certainly will be a different year somatically and

generally around cryptocurrency haidi:. what do you make of one of the indicators closely watched, minor reserves falling. do you see that as a signaling of headwind as to where the price could go from here? >> i would not necessarily say it is a headwind. particularly if we see this continued support coming in and reduction in supply, that says what expectation will be on price but a lot of pressure online as we saw on the back of the last bear it was very challenging in terms of being able to support that whole section of the industry itself as well as the issues around the environmental impact of bitcoin mining so there has been a lot of other factors at play but if we start seeing a return to these price points for bitcoin

it brings market forces back in and we can expect to see supply shore up and continue but again once the harbin happens all bets are off and we will wait and see what happens, certainly historically this is what it tells us this is the impact that it has. haidi: fascinating reporting about how ethiopia has become a new solace for chinese bitcoin miners stymied by their own government regulations. the focus moving across perhaps on these developing economies where it is not as regulated. do you see regulation, particularly you mention environmental concerns, as being a continued issue for the industry? >> yes and i think there is a responsibility the industry has, we cannot act in isolation, we are part of the global economy.

it has its place in the global economy and its responsibilities and opportunities and rights so i think the environmental conversation will not go away at all, or regulation conversations. but that is net positive for the industry and that positive for investors more importantly, given the safeguards we have perhaps enjoyed across the prior 10 years and recent headlines across the last 18 months that suggest that have been the case but somatic around africa and 54 countries in the continent, conversations we are having towards the end of last year with donna, we are hearing what they are doing, embracing digital assets and the conversation around blockchain and cryptocurrency rather more likely, this is where real opportunity can be i think for cryptocurrency, looking across board and speed of transaction

and a surety of transaction, reliability, certainly we know the continent has been one of the key innovators when it comes to digital payments so i think we can expect to see a lot more of that narrative come out in the next few years, particularly given that we are looking at central banks across the continent looking to get involved. this is not necessarily just an investor point of view, it is also the infrastructure of governments coming in so it is fascinating to see what will happen. haidi: caroline, it is always great to chat with you. let's get you back to paul allen with some global headlines. paul: japanese economic policy minister says it is time for japan to raise wages on the country should use this year to seal a hike. the minister says he wants to make it happen no matter what. japanese prime minister has been pressing for higher wages as slide in his support it has

halted and the boj says it is looking for signs that wage increases will spur demand, allowing them to exit from the world's last negative regime. and a public uproar in china over messier's failure to play in a recent hong kong match. the upcoming friendly with the argentine squad has been canceled. argentina had been expected to play against nigeria. development suggest controversy continues to grow over his trip to hong kong where he sat out a match do to injury and did not interact with fans. hours later he played for half an hour. stay tuned for our hong kong edition newsletter is coming soon. an insider guide to money and people shaking up the asian financial hub. sign up now on bloomberg.com/newsletters.

this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: earnings season in the u.s. around two thirds done, corporate america beating expectations, wall street ratcheting up a profit forecast and data shows 80% of s&p 500

companies reporting results to the upside to him exceeding the 10 year average and energy and information tax tables are among those leading the way. wall street sees fourth-quarter earnings growing 6.5% from one year early -- earlier, the best since mid-2022 and there is commentary that perhaps some expectations were a little softer to begin with. in australia the cpa bank among companies releasing results this week, expected to report a sharp decline in first-half profit with rba keeping rates at a 12 year high. let's bring in georgina mckay. what highlights are you looking out for? >> compact will be the only major lenders in australia's report this month, the others are giving training updates. things were mounted -- were marginally positive. share prices trading near an

all-time high buoyed by interest rate cut into stakes -- expectations, softer inflation and it is interesting to see where fundamental stock up. closely looking at outlook commentary and any idea for what is happening with the australian consumer will be in focus because it will give good readthrough for the other consumer stocks reporting this weekend next. haidi: we are also watching for mining and consumer names. >> yes. iron or giants in focus and iron ore has had a rough start to the year with china so we are looking to see how those companies are faring and rio came out and said they are seeing increased stimulus measures from beijing and that could help the share price. we will be looking at lithium

companies. we have had another big pain point in those prices with iron ore and we will be looking at company commentary whether there will be more job cuts and how they are faring in the environment and on the consumer front, more or less resilience in australian consumer space. last year we had some smaller names report but they beat expectations and one rallied 40% and the other 17%. jb so far the consumer is holding up better than expected. haidi: georgina mckay in sydney and one company we will be looking is west farmers and we will speak with the ceo rob scott thursday at 3:30 p.m. here in sydney. take a look at how we are trading in a session across asia

with large parts of the region closed because of the new year holiday. a muted session in sydney, up one quarter of 1%, watching the kiwi and australia sovereign bonds both continuing declines and january jobs report expected thursday in australia and expected to show employment increasing but not enough to clawback the big drop we saw previously and we see tepid risk appetite with kiwi assets as the governor is presenting the financial stability report and annual report before parliament later today and also another appearance at the other end of the week as well and the aussie dollar a little more positive but just managing to avoid six straight weeks of losses against the greenback and when you look through the weekly lens, the trend closed well below 64 could

be in focus if you are watching technicals and the kiwi dollar is pretty steady. you can watch us live and catch up on past interviews at tv and look at securities on bloomberg functions and join the conversation to send us messages during our shows. bloomberg's subscribers only. tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: paramount global president and ceo says he still sees a path to profitability for streaming and spoke about the board's plans for sale offers after a media entrepreneur says he has been talking about his bid for the film and television china -- giant. >> as a management team and the board of directors we are focused on shareholding value creation, the most predictable way to that is executions that we are focused on execution, driving paramount plus, elongating earnings in the traditional media sector, opening movies but simultaneously looking at other

options as we have been, including transactional ones. so again, a lot of activity but i think what is important about it is it really shines a light on the incredible value of paramount global. we have an unmatched content engine in terms of our studios, new production, episodic series and films, as well as irreplaceable libraries across demographics, kids with nickelodeon, adults. it is an extraordinary asset and we are focused on maximizing the value of it. day-to-day through execution but also continuing to look at other roots. >> and this is a sensitive one but we have had analysts come on and say there are too many players in the space and you have to be huge, you cannot even be medium-sized. with paramount plus and screaming are you getting to profitability? earnings around the corner but how soon can you deliver because

i know you spoke to that in the third quarter for example. >> a couple things. you were right, the narrative is out and there are people with that point of view but i would point to our third quarter call where we continued to show paramount plus is a growing service and continues to have the most net adds of any streaming service since we launched. on the third quarter call we talked about the fact that we expect, i have to be careful with my word choice, we expect 2022 was our peak streaming investment, not 2023, that says we are ahead of plan on the path to profitability for streaming and very excited about 2024 but i have to leave it at that until the earnings call in a couple of weeks we will have more to say. haidi: that was paramount's global president and ceo speaking with caroline hyde and ed ludlow.

diamondback energy and ended -- endeavor are in discussions toward a deal to create an oil and gas giant. we learned endeavor would be valued at $25 billion in the deal that might be announced monday. the combination would be the latest in mergers that reshaped the corporate landscape in u.s. share oil recently. exxon mobil agreed to acquire pioneer resources last month. occidental petroleum reached a deal to purchase crown rock for $10.8 billion. looking at how we trade across oil at the moment as we are releasing some of that rise in geopolitical risk and the fading of the cease-fire agreement in gaza driving geopolitical risk premium higher but brent crude up 4/10 of 1% and ny crude

trading. we are seeing downside projected by goldman sachs seeing an estimated shortfall of more than half a million barrels per day of downside risk in their forecast for china and demand in the fourth order account of a surge of ev sales and various conversations held with local consumers according to analysts and saying that hypothetical myths would potentially lower fourth-quarter brent pricing of $81 a barrel by five dollars a barrel so sticking with that opec range call for brent with an account of those china demand risks as we continue to see of course really the broader slow down there and we are hearing when it comes to some of these analysts city analysts saying prices will broadly remain

sensitive to those developments in the middle east and it appears quite that nothing else matters too much at the moment but if you look at the technical measures looking at crude potentially signals of strength in the market in the u.s. with the premium gasoline of crude increasing to the highest since september nationwide inventory and we know the situation they are seeing declines and we continue seeing market watching parts of what is happening with the drone attacks in ukraine on russian refineries as well. we are seeing a lot of market pressures today, many markets across the region are closed to observe the new -- observe the lunar new year. that is it for daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

t ay. haidi: