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bloomberg daybreak: europe. donald trump sparks concern after suggesting he could offend nato members in the face of a russian invasion. israel conducts strikes as joe biden urges netanyahu to shield civilians. european equity futures and muted trading in a show with most markets shut for the lunar new year. we will preview inflation dater out this week. futures pointing higher, worth noting the s&p hit a fresh record, getting about 5000 as earnings and the tech story

fuels momentum and traders get closer to aligning with where the fed is signaling rates will go. expecting for rate cuts, dialed back from seven. european futures pointing to gains, building on the upside. looking into jobs data out of the u.k.. s&p futures slightly off a 10th of a percent after bursting through the 5000 level. nasdaq futures are lower by a tent of 1%. let's look cross asset. will is in focus. checking in on currencies given what we expect to hear from fed speakers and the ecb. euro-dollar, one 07.

the pound 126. bitcoin is posting one of its best runs in a year, 48,000, as etf's are a driver for cryptocurrency. 48,000 on that cryptocurrency. brent crude is close to $82. we had comments from officials in iran suggesting that diplomacy is making progress when we think of the conflict in gaza. western leaders criticized donald's remarks on nato. he said he told a european leader he would abandon nato members to a russian invasion if they did not meet defense spending commitments. >> is got to pay up. they asked me that question, a

president asked if we do not pay and are attacked by russia, will you protect us? i said it you are delinquent? he said yes. i would encourage them to do whatever they want. tom: i'm joined by rose madison. what have reactions been from trump? rose: he made these comments years ago and keeps ramping them up as it gets closer to the election. european leaders and officials are disputing his account. there were tensions between donald trump and leaders over nato. he pushed to increase defense spending and threatened to withdraw from nato.

he said he would allow russia to do whatever they wanted? that is up for debate. if he comes back the concern is if he makes good on these promises. the world is different now and russia invaded ukraine for two years. does that change the dynamic? tom: we heard from the nato general pushing back and some republicans suggest this is trump trying to make a point about the commitment, the 2% spending target. switching focus to gaza over the weekend, a lot of concern. we heard from david cameron and the u.s. on the impact on civilians. israel is pursuing the conflict in the city where we know there are one million civilians tightly packed in. rose: regardless from pressure

and joe biden saying israel has been over the top, some of his strongest comments yet and further phone calls with netanyahu, he is determined to proceed with a full ground attack in the next week or two, saying they will move people out of harm's way. where they go is unclear because they don't have anywhere to go. they cannot go into egypt or north because there is a lot of fighting. where is safe passage? israel is determined to push on in the face of condemnation. tom: let's listen to netanyahu talking about plans israel has for civilians. >> rafa is 10% or 15% of gaza. it's an area north that has been cleared. >> 1.4 million people are in

that area right now and as the foreign minister said, they cannot just disappear. >> the areas we have cleared north, plenty of areas there. we are working on a plan to do so. tom: is there a feasible plan that israel can put in place to protect civilians while going after hamas? if there is that fallout, international condemnation in risks around the partnership? rose: israel conducted strikes in the area. hamas backed officials say 50 people have been killed, so there is a question of where they went or can they push them out of harm's way? either way israel is determined. the mood in israel has hardened. strong support for the war.

regardless of the u.s., they will push on. tom: thank you. comments from trump around nato and the latest on gaza. staying in the region israel received his first ever sovereign downgrade. moody's lowered the credit rating citing the military conflict on its finances. they were cut by one notch and on par with poland. with many east asian markets closed for lunar new year year investors are focused on key data on the u.s. economy. tomorrow's data will show inflation slowing, helping expectations that the fed will find rate cuts palatable. joining me is sam from our markets today team. talk about market pricing ahead of the cpi print? sam: what we have seen is

expectations of traders and what the fed is saying have come closer together. there is dislocation. closer, but not quite there. the inflation report means the trendline may go in the right direction but it may just mean another step in the positioning and what the fed is saying. tom: to what extent does the equity market need a drive down in yields? we talked about earnings. talk about what happens in treasuries and other assets. sam: earnings season focused on management execution. buybacks, any kind of cost-cutting, profit coming through, profitability will increase, that's good. if you can add a better picture

in terms of rates that means the rally will continue because it adds a whole dimension. tom: sam all stead from our markets team. check out analysis from the team on the blog and terminal. what else is on the agenda, fed speakers are rounding out the picture. consensus and rhetoric from officials pushing back on expectations of rate hikes and that has worked. michelle will speak at the community bank conference and then we hear from barkan at the atlanta event. and neil at the minneapolis fed will be speaking. a trio of fed speakers giving their views on one the fed is expected to cut through this year.

u.k. cpi on wednesday sprint out of the u.k. as markets try to adjust to where the bank of england goes. will be speaking to them later in the calendar because the stickiness of inflation. euro area gdp will come out on wednesday. interesting at a time when analysts have suggested they think there is further weakness for the german economy made week. coming up, the latest in america has race to counter chinese influence in africa. where the court or real project fits into the picture. geopolitics on display across the african continent and the kansas city chiefs win the super bowl. a closer look at the amount of money being splashed on this

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tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. former pakistan prime minister held talks on independence winning the most seats in thursday's election. the pti party called for protests amid allegations of vote rigging. the election commission denied the claims. the cofounder and chief executive of access bank died after a helicopter crashed on

friday in california. the bank, nigeria's biggest lender, confirmed that they died alongside his wife and son in the desert. the director of the wto sent out a statement morning his death. an update on american efforts to challenge chinese influence across africa. the u.s. approved a loan for a real project in the core door. the special coordinator outlines project goals. >> when invited announced the commitment at the g7 and later when other partners decided to join, the goal was to really have an investment that will allow minerals to reach markets

on a more efficient with less corruption to global markets and connecting africa to the world and to each other. tom: let's cross over. we are live in rwanda. talk to us about the significance of the rail project, particularly the u.s. role in getting it started. >> um, it will go a long way particularly in helping the u.s. have some form of influence in africa. the significance is it will cut down the time that is used to transport minerals from the sites to the markets and lower emissions. and directly connect mineral rich countries to the market. it aims to create a trade route for a central minerals such as copper and cobalt that are critical for electric vehicles and the batteries.

this is ambitious because it aims to ramp up exports to one million tons by the end of the to get by countering china's influence. tom: on that part in terms of countering chinese investments, china has been investing for over a decade, so to what extent does this move the needle when it comes to the u.s. attempt to counter chinese influence? >> slow but steady because china dominated investment in the last 10 decades and america is catching up because there's concern over critical minerals to power the energy transition. china invested more than $1 trillion in the initiative that passes through developing countries. america with a group of seven

are committing billions to projects such as this. it collects mines in zambia to the port in tanzania and chinese companies have large stakes in mines in zambia, so america is a distant second. tom: playing catch-up. live in kigali, thank you for the update. coming up, could the magnificent seven become the slightly less magnificent six? why some people think tesla does not belong in the club anymore. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> welcome back to do precure

up. tesla shares tank as the market rallies leaving traders to wonder if it belongs in the grouping of the magnificent seven. six of the seven tech companies benefit from ai while ev demand is expected to slow making it hard to swallow this skyhigh valuation. let's bring in danny lee out of hong kong. tesla has had a hard start, the stock is down 20%. whilst meda and nvidia are notching gains of 30 or 40% this year. what do investors say about carving tesla out of the grouping? danny: tesla has had a tough start. is the only one of the seven

stocks underwater, so when you look at the broader data, tesla has had a tough start and it is down to the other six. apple, amazon, alphabet, nvidia, they have benefited from artificial intelligence. tesla does not have that with ev growth slowing in key markets such as the u.s.. investors are thinking quite doubtful that the skyhigh valuation around 600 billion can hold. tom: what are the bulls saying in terms of optimism? can they turn around the slump? they had a good year last year. were focused on longer-term slowdowns in terms of growth.

are there silver linings? what would be a pivot for tesla? danny: look at 2023 when shares were up 100% after the four year earnings just recently. notably slower growth and not giving a guidance in 2024 shocked investors given how will they performed in 2023. that has hit the stock and with negative concerns about not just ev growth in the u.s. but in china, another key market, that hurt the stock in 2024 is a year of transition as it awaits a ramp-up in production. a new chip is under development in 2025. this will not help in 2024 when

sales will not match the heights of 2023. investors when you look at the valuation, given how high it was, valuations are now coming down. how much lower can it go? tom: you are in hong kong in you touched on the chinese market and u.s. market for tesla. is the bigger challenge in china the competition or the broader weakness we are seeing given that consumers are more constrained in terms of spending ? what is your assessment in terms of the prospects in that market? >> we have to see how the lunar new year points out.

it was lower air across the board and there is rising competition in terms of price cuts. that has shaken up market and you see stronger players challenging tesla financially. tesla has a strong competition when you have consumers thinking about sales of the world's biggest auto market, that puts pressure on tesla which has built in expansion of capacity to capture growth which may not be as good as it once was. tom: denny lee in hong kong with tesla in china. the question is whether tesla should be cut out of the magnificent seven given underperformance year to date. this is what we are watching for. we will get cpi and industrial data from one of the fastest

growing major economies, india, sbc the prime minister building else a big year for india. bank of england road releases the text of the speech by andrew bailey. we will see if it informs us about where the cuts land this year. on tuesday, the u.s. cpi, arguably the most important data. our thinking on potential rate cuts and earnings from coca-cola. we will see of boycotts in the middle east will be a drag. airbnb as well. the euro area releases manufacturing data and we will get the u.k. cpi on wednesday.

bloomberg forecasts a rise from december. on thursday gdp data shows the u.k. entered a technical wrist session. potential implications in an election year on the data print. and employment data from the u.s. on friday. the munich security conference starts in germany and comments from trump around nato or lack of support will be part of the discussion as well as ukraine's need for funding and hardware. housing data from the u.s.. that's a preview in terms of the print which is probably the data point of the week. expectation on the headline is inflation will come in on tuesday. 2.9 percent for january, down, so the survey suggesting work has been done in getting the fed back to a 2% target.

expecting to see inflation moving to 3.7 percent from 3.9. that is data on tuesday. coming up donald trump sparks concern among allies after saying he could abandon nato members in the face of a russian invasion. that story next, this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm jason. i've lost 228 pounds on golo. so when my doctor told me i needed weight loss surgery, i knew i had to make a change. golo's helped me transition to a healthier, sustainable lifestyle. i'm so surprised just how crazy

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tom: this is bloomberg, i'm tom mackenzie. trump sparks concern among allies by suggesting he could abandon nato members in the face of a russian invasion. israel conducts strikes in southern gaza as biden urges netanyahu to shield civilians. iran signals a diplomatic solution moving closer and equity futures are higher following muted trading in asia with markets shut for lunar new year. a preview of u.s. inflation data. european futures are looking to build on three weeks of gains. futures higher across the european space, up 2/10 of a percent. ftse 100 futures looking to add

2/10 of a percent. inflation data out of the u.k. this week and waiting to hear from andrew bailey to see if he has changed rhetoric around the first cuts. s&p futures are flat, looking for momentum and waiting for the cpi print. nasdaq futures are down. 18,000. the s&p broke through the 5000 level on friday. let's look at the oil space. euro-dollar, a gain of a 10th of a percent. of for sterling. bitcoin close to posting the strongest streak in a year as inflows continue. and crude close to $82. oil down 3/10 of 1%. some reading into iranian

comments that diplomacy is taking center stage as we look at a top -- attacks. leaders criticize donald trump over remarks on nato. he said he told a european leaders he would abandon nato members to a russian invasion if they had not met defense spending commitments. let's get the read through with gritty group dell. is this just trump being trump? >> we know this has been his rhetoric and even was his rhetoric during his presidency. the european union has been trying to pass aid for a long time and they are not getting support in u.s. congress. concerns are he could act upon it.

he has made similar threats in the past and the thought process when you look at the global view of a trump presidency, his policies may be more thought through. you've seen analyst talk about the tariff policies that are thought through to the fact that he could act on this. with everything president trump says, you have to take it with a grain of salt. it is not being well-received when ukrainian aid is that the top of the agenda. tom: as the european union managed to get some funding to ukraine, but they need u.s. support. talk about the u.s. role in supporting ukraine. there is starlink and reporting that russian forces are using the satellite connection. >> that is the claim from the

ukrainian military. elon musk said on his twitter platform that starlink has never been sold to russia and is no longer active in russia. this is a satellite system that creates internet in a chunk of the world. this is the start of a new star wars for a better term, but the concern comes from muted territories in the hotspot where ukraine is saying this is active in the area. elon musk said it is not but because it is not russian territory that was illegally annexed, you see the differentiation of whether it is active. ukrainian say that is giving the forces the edge. tom: billy fascinating in terms of the linkage between starlink

and the comments from former president donald trump as well. nato's used member -- newest member finland of alexa their newest president. the prime minister one a tight election. it comes as finland integrates into the defense alliance it joined in april in the wake of russia's invasion of ukraine. lloyd austin has been hospitalized with a bladder problem less than a month after he was released from care for prostate cancer. he transferred functions to deputy defense secretary kathleen hicks. another week of earnings with a focus on beverages and banks. a chance to see how european consumer confidence in the strength of asia's markets impact the biggest companies. joe easton has the details.

what should we look for? joe: we will look for a continuation of what we have seen, earnings have been weak but well-received. when a company beats expectations by a small amount of the shares go crazy and rally. when they miss, the market as we expected it, so they do not fall much. expectations have been low. you mentioned sectors like stellantis in the car space. cars not doing badly, wages is the issue. in the aerospace we've got airbus. reports they are cutting output guidance due to supply issues. and drinks, we've got behind again, the spirit space absolutely hammered by inventory

in the u.s. being too high. beer is well priced at the moment. potential he that could still be strong. will people trade down as the cost of living gets worse? that's another thing. we finish off with natwest which posted u.k. bank earnings is the most exciting thing. it gives us a good read on the u.k. economy. we get the rest of the banks next week. tom: beautiful preview. we need to focus on those stocks. joe easton is the person to follow when it comes to the earnings story throughout our programming. thank you. tomorrow's cpi data will shed light on the path for the fed. joining me is sam all stead from

the markets today team. bond traders have been closer to it in line with the fed. expecting for cuts versus seven. talk about how that has evolved? sam: that's have eased through february. the trend is going in the right direction but the dot plot, what the fed is saying versus what traders expect is dislocated. positioning in the treasury has cooled off but there is potential that if the inflation comes hotter or colder we could see volatility. tom: economic data in the u.k.. joe easton is interest in on natwest. what about you? sam: inflation is the key report. looking for the trendline to go in the right direction.

the boe warned it is likely to be bob year in january. jobs data remains an issue. wages data is not great because of methodology changes in gdp as well on thursday could be interesting. likely to show that they u.k. entered a technical recession, but it could be a rounding case. inflation is the one to watch. tom: thank you for breaking down what to look for with the data out of the u.k.. switching to energy, big-ticket dealmaking appears to be coming through. bloomberg learning that diamondback and endeavor are in discussions and a deal that would create a giant worth more than $50 billion. it will be the latest in a string of mergers that reshaped

the landscape in u.s. oil recently. let's bring in david stringer. why are these two businesses joining this wave in the u.s. sector? what is driving this combination? david: we've seen a reshaping of energy landscape in the u.s. through a wave of dealmaking involving the biggest names. just like those deals this is very much about securing for diamondback future production, lowering costs by combining with a producer that has complementary assets. we have reported they are in final talks and an announcement on a deal with endeavor at 25 billion could be announced as soon as monday u.s. time.

it it just extends as you said. a real wave of activity that points to expectations around enduring oil demand. tom: yeah, the sector had been fragmented until wednesday. was it any surprise in terms of the deal? are there potential hurdles to getting across the line? david: is a surprise. endeavor is one of the last big closely held plays in the permian basin. it is a set price that it is diamondback getting the deal. the target has been on the radar of bigger companies. exxon, chevron. there is a surprise and it will be seen as a shrewd move for the acquirer. in terms of regulatory hurdles, there will be the usual steps

but given that we have seen larger deals progressing well, i cannot see that being an issue. tom: hey surprise, but likely to cross the line. looking to buy a controlling stake, what is the rationale? david: much like other traders they have benefited from volatility. the volatility out of the pandemic, the impact on energy prices from russia's invasion of ukraine. they are looking for acquisitions that will bolster the long-term. they have been adding refineries , networks. the deal gives them exposure to a key refinery that serves the mediterranean region. it will give them an asset in sardinia and lived refining

capacity to about 800,000 barrels a day. a significant deal in another example of a company in commodities that has done well putting cash to work. tom: david stringer with a great wrap up of dealmaking in the energy space. thank you very much for the latest. also making news the founding family teaming up with a firm to take the company private. they value the brand at 1.4 billion euros. it is backed by lvmh and will offer to purchase shares at a price representing an 18% premium to the last close. the kansas city chiefs win the super bowl in overtime. we take a closer look at the enormous amount of money involved in this year's show

piece of that. this is bloomberg. ♪

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that's why it's more than advice worth listening to. it's advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. ♪ tom: welcome back to daybreak europe, i'm tom mackenzie. the kansas city chiefs became back-to-back super bowl champions two years running after they beat the 49ers in the second ever overtime game. taylor swift was spotted in the stadium cheering on the winning team and travis kelce. joining me now is charlie wells. talk about the action. this is a big money tournament.

taylor swift drawing in fans, the ads we focus on. tell us about who wins in terms of the money. charlie: it is such a big moment in american culture at a time when the country is polarized. it is rare to be able to get people from all corners of the country to tune in. we are expecting 100 million viewers, so it is a huge deal. you asked about winners and losers and the winner is the nfl. they are a $20 billion business. they have attracted attention. this was an exciting game going to the bitter end. taylor swift shows up, so you're bringing in new audiences. there are a significant amount of women, up nearly half were women. he saw that strategy in

advertisers, but another big winner was sports betting. since 2018 when the supreme court deregulated betting, you had a huge explosion. draftkings, fan duel, a lot of interest. tom: sports betting is a big winner. the halftime ads, how have advertisers change the way they have approached the event to ensure they are of the moment? charlie: i might prefer the ads to the sporting action. that ads are fun and there were two big themes. the first was celebrities. you have this entire game where we have taylor swift -- when you look at all these ads you have jennifer aniston, ben affleck. it is easier to remember celebrities and products that they are pitching and there is data that shows there has been a huge increase in ads with

multiple celebrities. last year 40% of ads had multiple celebrities. a sixfold increase since 2010. based on what we saw, we saw usher, christopher walken, we will see an uptick as well. tom: what is the money spent, one million dollars a minute? charlie: $7 million for 30 seconds, so really expensive. tom: we've got some real a-list stars in the mix. is that the trend? they guess has the infrastructure to put on a performance of this size? charlie: this is the first time las vegas hosted the super bowl and we were talking about sports gambling being deregulated in 2018. and the nfl was reluctant to have any connection to the nfl.

gambling in the u.s. has negative connotations different to other countries. the u.k. was a pioneer in sports gambling. vegas spent $7 billion trying to attract sports teams. they brought in a hockey team, the oakland a's are coming. this is a huge win for las vegas and they are trying to diversify. it calls to mind strategies in middle eastern countries that are trying to bring in the tourist dollar. if they certainly did. there were 450 thousand tourists expected to come this weekend. tom: you are a taylor swift fan. how important was her attendance? she was in tokyo performing, she got on a jet and went through six time zones to end up in vegas. her boyfriend played a key role in the victory. how key is taylor swift to the future of the nfl?

charlie: it's interesting to see what effect she has on the numbers. beyond getting more eyeballs on the game which i'm sure she did, but we have to check the numbers. she created a cultural moment. a sort of will she won't she? there were memes looking back to the west wing where they were talking about how possible it is to fly from tokyo to washington dc, so this was a cultural moment that you do not see much in the united states and this generated attention. so whether or not the numbers show it, four weeks before there was so much debate and that will have a positive effect on the nfl, advertisers. there was a swift effect but i am biased. tom: we welcome that bias. charlie wells, thank you. unity is a good thing. 50 million women watching, 150

viewers in total. taylor swift playing a role in bringing a gender balance in the viewership. charlie wells of course. plenty more coming up. european futures up 3/10 of a percent, looking to build on three weeks of gains for european stocks. u.s. futures slightly lower, 5040 two. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: welcome back to bloomberg. i am tom mackenzie in london. a big data point in the u.k. is wage data, but cpi as well. inflation coming through on wednesday and the focus on the monetary policy committee is you look at the benchmark of 5.25%.

sam allstate from markets today pointed to this as the focus in terms of giving confidence around cutting rates. the function on the terminal suggesting 80 basis points of cuts from the boe through this year, less than expected from the ecb and federal reserve. the blue line is cpi year on year. that is u.k. cpi and it has been grinding lower. just above 4% year on year on a three-month month basis. u.k. services is proving stickier and within that the average weekly earnings three-month year on year is the white line. toward the end of 2023 it was the services and wage component combined that remained stickier and will be of attention for the

members of the committee as they try to make the assessment in terms of where to go on rate cuts from the bank of england. rhetoric has been higher for a longer. of 525 is the benchmark. do not miss an interview with gop presidential candidate nikki haley, live on bloomberg tv and radio at 12:30 p.m. u.k. time. also, our conversation with the german finance minister christian. we will ask about the health of the german economy. next is markets today as we count down to the market open with european futures pointing to gains. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

>>, from london. this is "bloomberg markets today ."