tom: good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. these are the stories that set your agenda. japanese stocks lead gains as traders away u.s. cpi data, which could show inflation falling below 3% for the first time in about three years. a pivotal day for the bank of england with u.k. jobs and wages data set to provide more clues for the central banks great path ahead. plus, president biden pushes for a six-week pause in fighting in gaza as israel launches more strikes on the southern city of roff up. thus the geopolitics, checking on the markets, a pause on the s&p. you held above but -- about 5000 by the end of the those. the heat coming through in japan. we will unpack that for you. u.s. futures currently low by a

10th of a percent. s&p holding above the 5000 level. nasdaq, 17,500. looking to take a 10th off the top. european futures looking out losses after notching a fresh record on a 12 month basis for european stocks yesterday. very solid session for the european equity markets yesterday, taking a breather as we await the data out of the u.k. and the cpi print. ftse 100, 7548, holding in positive territory. let's hold the book and have a look at the stand out in the u.s. microsoft took a breather, but the enthusiasm that ai frenzy continues in the money pouring into arm. this market cap for this company at 150 billion u.s. dollars. the stock has almost tripled in three days. that was the game yesterday for arm holdings. this is a company with a market cap and evaluation higher than that of boeing and at&t. the options markets and trading suggest there's further upside.

softbank in japan today. avril hong will unpack that story in the next couple of minutes. let's look at the cross as a board as we move on for arm and focus on what's happening in the treasury space in the lead up to the all-important print coming out of the u.s. cpi expected to drop to 2.9% year on year for the month of january. u.s. ten-year at 417. that could all change later today. 126 as we await the wage data and the jobs data out of the u.k. that data dropping at 7:00 a.m. u.k. down. panda is down. bitcoin holding about 50,000. it's the etf stories on the bitcoins split is driving the gains into that cryptocurrency, may be expectation around rate cuts could support the rate cuts. brent, $82 a barrel. a gain of a 10th of a percent is morgan stanley upgrades or forecasts for oil. let's cross over to asia now where the markets are back,

south korea is back in japan is back with strength, we typed about the softbank story and the semiconductor story. avril, what are you looking at? >> we are looking at much of asia, japan and south korea are back up and running and running higher. nikkei extending gains by almost 3% today. that is the biggest jump since november 2022. in all this, you are seeing the tech rally. you see the yen, corporate governance really refueling things. you pointed out earlier in showing up in softbank that in a matter of three trading sessions has surged 30 plus percent. note on the rsi showing us the most overbought levels in more than two decades. tokyo, electron, another stock we have been closely watching because it's guidance thanks to strong china sales and that trend is expected to continue for this equipment making

manufacturer as china works to build up its domestic chipmaking capabilities. it's not just japan, south korea chipmaking stocks running higher. i wanted take you to how the kospi has been performing in the past two months amid all this. it seems like south korea is taking a leave out of japan's labor as the kospi has lost 6% in january. but then rebounding since the early parts of this month on this expectation of these are reglet tory push to unlock shareholder values, improve corporate governance and the insurers are rising and south korea because those are the stocks that's expected to benefit. let's flip the board and take you to the effects space as we wait for the u.s. cpi print. we see dollar-yen pushing closer to that one of -- 150 level. korean won supported by the stock market inflow. kiwi has been losing ground against the greenback, among the

biggest losers in the g10 after in inflation expectation that came in at the lowest in two .5 years. -- 2.5 years. it is all about u.s. data. tom: avril hong in singapore with a check on the asian markets. japan coming through strongly with a nikkei two close to 3%. thank you. back to the story around the cpi and what it could mean for the fed. fed cut in question with u.s. inflation data on the debt. fed officials reiterating it is too soon to ease policy. we have heard that before reiterated overnight. that's as markets await that cpi print for the month of january. take a listen. >> i think it's too soon to have an expectation that what we take to measure or project when and how much i think we might be lowering the policy. i think the progress that we are making on inflation is very positive. as long as we have continued progress at the current policy rate, i think at some point it

will be appropriate for us to lower the federal funds rate. i don't see that in the immediate future. i don't want to prejudge what our decisions might be going forward this year. tom: the median estimate of our survey suggest the headline number will drop below 3%, down from last month's print of 3.4%. kriti gupta joins us. but part of this inflation print are you going to be looking at, scrutinizing when it comes out later? >> it's a seesaw between the services and goods inflation. we have seen it coming down, outpacing where the deceleration is coming from. bloomberg economic saying this is where will flip. services inflation while out pace the goods story in a downward fashion. i think the sticky points is the housing piece of the equation. we talked about how services exhilaration has a lot to do with wage growth. rage growth remains high. starkly, the fed has never cut rates in the face of a strong labor market.

the housing piece is starting to seem like it's making up a bigger portion of that services piece. if you are not seeing the deceleration in housing prices, that is the question of whether or not services will continue decelerate and. we are going from three point 4% year-over-year to 2.9 percent. that's a big margin of drop. tom: we scrutinize housing within the services part. what about the risks, do we sidelined the risks of inflation re-accelerating? how are people thinking about that? kriti: they are saying they don't see those risks until late 2024 or 2025. anna wong saying it would be incredibly dumb for anyone -- for any federal reserve member to push out cuts that long waiting for that great acceleration. there are few concerns. we talk a lot about services being the main driver of deceleration. what this commodities risks come back. that's what it's around tariff

policies related to the election . all of that will come back, in addition to the fact you are seeing people getting laid off at the moment in the united states. you are seeing headline numbers over and over again. there is a question of how much wage growth begins to diminish. tom: kriti gupta, thank you. what to think about when it comes to the inflation rent. let's turn the focus to developments in the middle east. u.s. president joe biden pushing for a plan to pause fighting in the israel-hamas war to free hostages. biden spoke with jordan's king at the white house and set those conditions could lay the groundwork for broader peace. president biden: as the king and i discussed today, the united states is working on it hostage deal between israel and hamas, which would bring immediate and sustained time of calm in gaza. for at least six weeks. tom: let's get more on this and

bring in bloomberg sylvia who joins me in the studio. thank you for your time. let's unpack the comments from joe biden and what we know about progress, if there has been any towards a temporary pause in the fighting. the work toward some form of cease fire. >> there have been efforts to have a cease-fire. they have been through several week causes in talks mediated by qatar and egypt. but it's extremely difficult right now because israel says it's real aim is to destroy hamas in gaza and it is moving up towards the egyptian border, and it says it needs to really fight in this area to end the groups hold on gaza. this is probably the trickiest point at which these talks up and happening and it would be really difficult to secure something. but the pressure is building on all sides to come to an agreement on at least a pause in the fighting to get the remaining hostages out in to get

a into the people still in this area in gaza. tom: you touched on some of this, but in terms of who is leading negotiations, what the roblox are, israel says there is a number of hamas people working on a plan to ensure civilians are not overly affected. the united nations says that's preposterous, to paraphrase what they have said. what are the roblox, where's the were coming from in terms of negotiations question mark, qatar or the u.s.? >> the u.s. would have the most influence on israel. you have the qatari's talking to hamas's, the bigger mediator in this. there is no way there can be a lasting solution or a piece in gaza without the involvement with countries like jordan and egypt in the region. it is a difficult balance for the u.s. and they need to listen to the allies in the region and they have the difficulties of

different objectives for what israel is doing there. that is where it is now. they have had success in the past to enable a cease fire, but that has been the situation where it is perhaps less tense on the ground and where, in some ways, the stakes have not been so high. tom: thank you for unpacking the latest out of the middle east, at least coming to a pause or cease fire as israel says it is determined to dislodge those battalions. we have flagged the u.k. data. the bank of england and how it forms the npc's views on the next steps. we get the wages data, which is more important than the jobs data because of some of the changes around the methodology from the ons. the wage data in focus is expected to come in around 6%. that data dropping at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time. meanwhile, it is u.s. cpi in

focus for us today. the data points when you are thinking about the federal reserve. as we have been saying, expected the survey coming in below 3% for the first time since march of 2021. coca-cola coming through and air pmp. coca-cola will be interesting, in terms of whether or not it seeing any impacts from the removal -- the reduction of sales in some parts of the middle east as some consumers turn their back on some u.s. brands. india's prime minister is in the uae. two countries are working to strengthen political ties. more on that relationship and what it could mean for the region. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg

daybreak: europe. happy tuesday. kenya's first year upon sale since 2021, they saw seven years dollar bonds yielding 10.3%. close to 10.4%. a fellow sales from ivory coast. joining me is -- what is the significance of this sale for kenya and maybe for the broader region as well? >> the significance is that it will be used to get as much as possible for the $2 billion euro bond to ensure. that is a big concern for investors that were in citing if it would meet the obligations come june. it goes a long way in helping offset the payment obligations on the government and the pressures that the government has been going through. the government has raised $500 million from a bond sale in japan. 900 million dollars from the imf and a syndicated fund from the wall bank. this means kenya is getting a positive outlook in the market. the only downside is that the

yields are above 10%, which is really high and will make the issuance very expensive. if it's successful, it will pave the way for other countries, such as nigeria and angola to go back to the market. tom: on that raised by kenya, what it means for the finances of the nation going forward. india's prime minister is in abu dhabi today where he will dress up to -- address up to 40,000 people before inaugurating a new hindu temple. tomorrow, the temple else on a 27 acre plot is being seen as a sign that the uae's recognition of india's growing geopolitical and economic importance. the two nations have been worked -- working to strengthen political ties since modi came to power. joining me is our government reporter in new delhi. thank you for joining us. what does this temple mean for us. the hindu temple in a muslim

nation. what is this mean between these two countries? >> it's an indication of the deepening of the ties that is there. this land that is there has been given by the local government and shows how close uae and india has been over the last couple of years. the prime minister has been pushing for better ties in this region. india has always had good ties with the gulf, but it has gone on to the next level with the prime minister actively pushing and taking interest. just a few statistics, prime minister modi is the most visited uae once every year or once every year the last 10 years. this is his fifth meeting with the uae leadership in the last couple of months. that kind of goes to show how deep the relationship has become. the uae is the fourth largest investor. it's really a very strong

relationship that's becoming even stronger. tom: it's really fascinating. how much of this is about ultimately energy for india and what deals and agreements could be signed by the leadership of the two nations in the days and hours ahead? >> energy is a big part of the discussion that is there and we can expect some announcements and energy. we expect big announcements and i expect big announcements and investments coming into india. also we expect big announcements in the india middle east economy, which is the alternate trade route to the maritime route that passes through the suez canal. you know where shipping is under threat right now. so broadly these four areas are what we are beginning to hear from on the indian side is where we could see progress being made in the next couple of hours. tom: we look for details on

those potential deals. thank you very much. how -- our government reporter in new delhi. the importance of that uae/india relationship. we will hear from aston martin's executive chair. the luxury carmakers debt plans and new vehicles that were launched yesterday. that conversation is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. aston martin's chairman says the british luxury carmakers negotiating with bankers to address a looming debt pile of roughly 1.4 billion pounds. i spoke about the company's outlook, his hope for the upcoming formula one season and his expectations around the book for the new vantage.

they have the gt three and f1 car they launched yesterday. take a listen. >> historically we have sold between 2500 to 3000, 2000, depends on how many years you want to go back. it's a seven-year-old car. our anticipation is to outpace what was previously done. tom: we have seen softness in some parts of the broader luxury market. when you look at your high network problems and customers, do you see cautions creeping in there? >> not it all, to the contrary, but i believe the launch of our new models has a lot to do with that. we also have our suv, which is only three years old and in three years managed to take 20% share of the luxury high-performance suv market. that's going from strength to strength and we will be complemented with the sports. i think the new launches are overcoming any hangover that you

mention, but we are not feeling at all at this moment. tom: they doubled their state last year, that was a significant moment for the business. but jeffrey's analyst put out a note saying aston market and was firmly in m&a territory, are they right? >> cannot be further from the truth. we are not in any m&a territory, continuing business as usual. they are shareholder just like mercedes-benz and just like we are the largest shareholders. we have several shareholders in the group, myself being the largest but we are not in any m&a territory, no. tom: pif is in there, the public investment fund of saudi arabia, you have the portfolio brands. do look to leverage's close to synergies with some of the portfolio brands? to look to deepen those ties in the quarters ahead?

>> one partner you forgot to mention is shareholders mercedes-benz. they have been a technology supplier to us for several years. exactly as mercedes-benz has been a technology supplier and partner for several years, they will be doing the same, we will share and develop some bev platforms and potential ideas for our bev programs, no different than our elation ship with sadie's bends. tom: what's your game plan, ultimately? do you look to exit from aston in a couple of years once you have shored up this business? is that a potential scenario for you? >> one never says never, but i must say, i'm in the very beginning of this journey. you know i'm the majority owner privately of formula one. it was an incredible task and

with great incitement, putting these two companies together. i believe the future is extremely bright. there is nothing more exciting happening in high-performance luxury automotive there when i put together putting these two great companies, putting aston martin back on the track and formula one coming out with these great new products. again, going from strength to strength from our sports cars to our hybrid program, it's our full bev program. lawrence intends to be here for many, many years. i just spent over 250 million pounds building a formula one factory, which is where we are sitting at the greatest state-of-the-art facility and formula one, we have raised over a billion and a half for the road car company. i will enjoy the upside for many years to come. tom: that was aston martin's executive chairman speaking to me from the company's headquarters in silverstone yesterday. he did address the question around a debt refinance and he said they are working on having

discussions with banks around that issue of what to do with the billion pound plus debt that comes due next year. also the launch of the new f1 car for aston martin. he told me he hopes that they will start to get on the podium in the next season, which starts in the next few weeks. saying on the sports story, tiger woods has a new marketing partner after ending a long-term endorsement deal with nike earlier this year. the 15 time major winner has started with tailor-made golf to debut a clothing line in may. that's with having first joined forces with the brand in 2017. coming up, a big week for u.k. with the latest reading on jobs and wages out shortly there is a little over 30 minutes time. we will have a preview of that data, next. what it could mean for the bank of england. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm tom mackenzie in london, these other stories that set your agenda. traders await u.s. cpi data, which could show inflation falling below 3% for the first time in three years. a beautiful day for the bank of england when u.k. jobs and wages dataset to provide more clues for the central banks great path ahead. plus, president biden pushes for a six-week pause in fighting in gaza as israel launches more strikes on the crowded southern city of rafah. let's check in on one of your markets. fresh gains across european stocks yesterday. highest levels we have seen in about two years across european stocks. futures pointing to a breather as we await that data in u.k. and of course the u.s. as well. european futures up by 2/10 of a

percent. ftse 100 futures old and onto gains. commodities come into play with brent prices. 7000 552 on the ftse 100. pointing a little negative on the back of it, a bit of softness came through yesterday, still above the 5000 level. nasdaq below that 18,000 level and essentially flat in the future. let's cross the board or lacrosse asset and have a quick dive into what's happening across the currency space, crypto and treasuries as we count down to the cpi print expected to come in below 3%, 417 on the u.s. ten-year. 126 is where we await the jobs data out at seven -- 7:00 u.k. time. gains keep coming through for that crypto currency etf flow was a big part of that story. brent gaining up. morgan stanley revising up their forecast for oil on tighter inventory. let's get to the u.k. data.

kicking off with the labor data in the markets are due in less than half an hour. here with the preview in the deep dive is lizzy burden onset with us. what is the bank of england likely to take from the data that we expect out at 7:00 a.m. u.k. time? like there was a time for the bank of england put particular emphasis as a indicator of domestically driven inflation. but because they've had a bad response rate, you really have to treat them with a dollop of salt, not just a pinch. the focus will be on the wage figures, especially the private sector wage growth figures. they are expected tick down from 6.5% to 6%. which is in line with the bank of england forecast. later in the week, as you say, we will get the inflation numbers in the gdp numbers. the expectation is that inflation will pick up in the economy will slip into recession. which, if you have this weakness in the economy, really sets the

stage for the bank of england to cut rates in the year, but the data will guide the timing. markets are currently pricing in three cuts this year. they have paired that back from five at the start of january. markets have pushed back when they see the rekha starting from may to june. on the other hand, if you get strong wage data, strong inflation data, it helps the hawks make their case just wait and see. the last thing that anyone at the bank of england wants to do is a u-turn on monetary policy. tom: the focus on private sector wages is out in under 30 minutes time. we have been hearing from officials. andrew bailey amongst others, in terms of the views around valuation of u.k. banks. what are we hearing from the central bank governors? lizzie: he saying it's not down to all the rules put in place for the financial crisis. he says we need more rules to stop another silicone valley episode from happening. you need thanks to have large,

liquid assets to stay safe. he says, you've got to look elsewhere for the reasons why british banks are trading below their book value. in other words, investors think they will lose money on their activities. it's a head scratcher, a puzzle. maybe we should look to brexit. there's also a report from goldman sachs saying the u.k. economy is suffering from the long-term cost of brexit. that real gdp has underperformed by 5% since 2016. that wasn't cited by the governor, i have to say. tom: the brexit details coming through. governor talking about valuations but not talking about the -- thank you for the breakdown of that. the preview of the data that drops in under half an hour, what it could mean for central banks. u.s. cpi reading is consequential for the fed to consider whether the fed has brought inflation back under control in a sustained way. economist predict headline cpi will come in below 3% for the

first time in nearly three years. our mliv shuttling just strategist joins us for what to scrutinize in this data print and how to think about why, how it will inform the fed. the markets seem to be inclined to think that we get the first cut from the fed in may. do you think that's realistic? is that data today likely to bolster that case? >> good morning morning, tom. i think the pricing is a bit circumspect. core inflation is supposed to be nudging almost 4%. that is hardly an environment will the fed will say, we need to cut rates. but there's more to that than just that logic. if they cut rates in june, at them they have for other meetings in which to get through to rate cuts, remember, the fed has penciled in three rate cuts for 2024. if they go in june, they have two other meetings, so they can go on ultimate -- alternate

meetings. if they cut in may, they are opening themselves up to five more meetings for the remainder of the year in which they have to cut twice more. then, the signaling and messaging around it gets extremely wobbly. how's the fed going to communicate that, that cut rates in may, we have to wait for the next cut in september or whenever. that just makes the signaling so messy, which is why i think a june rate cut is much more likely than a may cut. tom: so you are leaning clearly towards june, for that reason. you have articulated it as brilliantly as ever. what does that mean for the greenback? do we assume from that view, if it's june and not may, that you get further upside for the dollar? >> absolutely. the dollar has been lost here there we have given it credit for. a lot of people, including myself, expected the dollar to be weaker. but that was predicated on the

market pricing for rate cuts. now, at the end of the year, the markets were thinking that the fed would cut in march. that doesn't happen, as we just discussed, it looks like a possibility, but june is more likely to happen. i think the dollar will be a lot stickier. if you look at real rates in the u.s., they have nudged higher. if you look at real rates and the rest of the global economy, they have a blink -- they have nudged lower on the premise that central banks will cut with the fed. i think the dollar will be a lot stickier is the central message. tom: look for a stickier u.s. dollar and fed to cut in june versus may. mliv strategist, thank you, as always ahead of the cpi print later today. the eu is proposing trade restrictions on two dozen companies, including three based in china accused of supporting russia's war efforts in ukraine. if adopted, the restrictions

would be the first the u.s. has imposed on u.s. mainland chinese firms. bloomberg spill joins us now for the details, what do we know them about these companies and what's the significance of potentially going after these three chinese firms? >> as you mention, this is a proposal at this point, it could certainly change before all the members have to decide whether to ratify it or not, but we are talking about electronics and technology companies, more than a dozen, three of which are believed to be inside china, there are some in india and thailand, it would restrict their ability of european companies to trade with these firms. the firms are believed to basically be in hoarding goods and re-exporting them to russia and according to the jeff denham the people involved in it, these firms are helping russia's

military-industrial complex on the war in ukraine by doing so. it's interesting that it goes after these three chinese bombs. -- three chinese firms. it would effective to target chinese companies. it shows the continued focus on trying to ratchet things down, add pressure on russia over the war in ukraine. there are still people investigating which companies might be facilitating that. it's also a shot across the bow out of beijing, just a warning to try to stay out of this war that there will be consequences if china is seen as aiding the russian war effort. tom: you made the point it is a proposal, what is the timeframe we are looking at and know whether or not this will actually be put into action and enforced?

>> s the big question. we know there were other chinese firms looked at in earlier versions. there's a lot of sensitivity around trade with china in which companies you can trade with or not. it's not clear we need to have all the eu members agreed to this, if it's going to take place. that process could still be a matter of weeks at the very least before we see this come into effect. tom: we will continue to watch developments around the story. bringing us the latest on that eu proposal and the potential of occasions. bill, thank you. staying with the conflict in ukraine. ukraine's president, volodymyr zelenskyy, is said to be planning a tour of western european capitals around this week's munich security. they are seeking more military support for ukraine's fight against russia. this is funding from the u.s., the country's main benefactor is held up due to political infighting.

coming up, how the protests of eu farmers has rippled across the world in a hugely important year for elections. certainly, the polish farmer dispute links back to ukraine. that story is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. farmers across europe are taking to the streets protesting tax increases, regulation and bureaucracy in a year of election agriculture has increasingly become a key battleground in a global cultural over money, food and climate change. bloomberg's oliver crook reports. oliver: the farmers have had it. they've taken to the streets across europe protesting cuts for tax breaks, competition for

cheaper imports, and sprawling bureaucracy. the spark came from germany where the government rolled back agriculture sensitivities. if that sounds familiar in 2018 it was an innocuous fuel tax that unleash them across france. france is the biggest agriculture producer in europe worth about 100 billion euros every year -- euro but imports for 2% of its fruits and vegetables. in germany and in ploys less than one million people but accounts for half of the nation's land use. across-the-board, agriculture is minuscule. but in very real terms, what is more important than feeling your population? issues from climate change to the war in ukraine highlighted warns of the food insecurity. a partial backtrack by the government wasn't enough in germany, nor in france. even the eu had to flinch. what makes it harder is the overwhelming support for farmers

by the broader population. agriculture benefits from huge subsidies. a third of the budget goes to farmers from the tune of 55 billion euros in 2021. plus, german farmers enjoyed record-breaking revenue last year. when you speak to them, it's not just about money. there's also an impression that lofty climate and trade goals are being issued by lawmakers far from the soil that grows and sustain them in which anti-politicians which -- in elections. tom: that was oliver crook joining me now for more on the story is -- in brussels. we talk about -- he talked a little bit about why farmers across europe are protesting, it started in germany, arguably. before we get onto the government reaction of this, where does this go from here? are there further protests we should expect? is this something that is expanding as a movement? >> we have seen a recent wave of

protesters across europe, though some of them have died down, but other protests continue. in fact, last friday, polish farmers announced that they are starting a month-long protest, and their protest centers on the uncontrolled influx of ukrainian agriculture products into poland. this is a very particular reason they are -- why they are protesting, but there are other reasons which are probably the same for other farmers across europe and in other parts of the world, the rising administrative burden, and also when farmers have to compete with products that come from thousand miles away from european union and they come over being sold at cheaper prices, and the control

is not as stringent as it is in europe, so this protest is continuing. tom: what has the government reaction been across various countries and how is it feeding in the politics of the eurozone. >> the government finally had to react. although it accounts for only less than 2% of the european gdp in only 4% of the european union workforce, but when you have hundreds of tractors blocking highways across europe, the message is loud and clear, and the authorities that are in power at present have to respond to that. there have been promises made on a country to country basis, such as, for example, in france. farmers promised more financial support in a more stringent

control of products coming from that countries. there has been rolled back on eu wide legislation, for example, the plans to use pesticide for 50% by 2030, that was voted down by the european parliament and it was said the european union will withdraw that proposal. this is what we are seeing, the governments are trying to do at present, trying to placate the farmers wall the opposition parties from donald trump in the u.s. still far right parties in europe are trying to harness this process. tom: the context around those protests across europe, farmer led protest. joining us from brussels, the german finance minister says the country's economy can turn

around if the correct forms are put in place. they spoke exclusively with francine lacqua here in london. quakes germany has some structural deficits, and these deficits have been covered by low interest rates and demand from the global markets in the very cheap fossil energy, which we important from -- imported from russia. now the situation has changed in the german economy has had to find a new basis. i think there is potential for a fast turnaround to give them human capital of the intellectual property. but, since the circumstances have changed, we have to improve their framework conditions for our businesses, which means the

labor market, which means less red tape, we need investment in public infrastructure and digitization of the public administration. of course, i think we need a reform of our corporate tax system. tom: that was the german finance ministers speaking exclusively to bloomberg's francine lacqua. plenty more coming up. we will do a deep dive on the cpi preview, and what is propelling arm to franchise. this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us.

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tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. happy tuesday. if you are thinking about where the fed goes next, this cpi print is going to be really

consequential. let's give you context and the work that has been done by the fed to get inflation lower. we are looking, in terms of the white line, inflation expectations, then you have the university of michigan survey in terms of prices expected around the changes. that's the blue line. it's the yellow line and focus for us predominantly now. this is the work that has been done on cpi year on year. you can see the peak back in the summer of 2022 and just how far that has moved lower. we have been saying the fact that the surveys expect inflation print topline year on year for the month in january to come and go 3% for the first time since march of 2021. we also know bloomberg economics lens is going to be the shift. they expect to see this shift in terms of inflation, most work being done by the goods part to services, in particular, housing. look for that as we think about what this could do in terms of the views around the fed.

markets around for cuts. they have aligned with the federal reserve. let's flip the board and look at something else. it does tie into views around the fed. if you get a lower interest rate regime with the benchmark of 5.25%. if you get those cuts coming through as markets expect, that could give some further lift. but for bitcoin. it's worth noting. the run-up clint has had, run up to 50,000, part of it is around expectation rates will come lower. a lot is down to the flows into the etf's. the regulators signed off on earlier this year. those flows have continued, and that is supporting the upside. these are the funds that have positive inflows. that fun flow continues. you also have expectations you could get further support -- support for bitcoin in april. that's also worth mentioning as well. as we are just skirting that 50,000 level for bitcoin. let's flip the board. this was the standout start

yesterday. once again in the u.s. looking at a market value of 150 billion u.s. dollars. three straight days of incredible gains for arm on this ai frenzy of something being depicted. you see a tripling of the market cap on the back of this demand. they had these blowout results. the options trading suggest there's further to go in terms of the run-up for arm. supermicro is another company that has outperformed. if you are looking at the pix on the tools of ai, this company provides infrastructure for the data center in the run-up for supermicro listed in the u.s. has been quite remarkable. the comparison between those two. quickly looking at the u.k. wage data. that is dropping in a little under five minutes or so here in the u.k.. the focus will be on the wage data. private expected wages expected to falter around six percent. jobs data overall comes out with question marks around the

methodology. think about the wage data and how that could play into the few. will that turn the hands of the hawks if you get a sub 6% level on those private wages. you do have one member of the mbc voting for hikes. expectations now about about 80 basis points of cuts for the bank of england. that data dropping in the next few minutes. we will be joined by the cfo of michelin. he will discuss the french carmakers numbers. that exclusive interview is in just over half an hour with the markets today. plus, later, the iea's executive director will speak to us, plenty to discuss with that conversation, a: 40 this morning. his views on the outlook for oil. up next is markets today. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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