Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  February 15, 2024 10:00am-11:00am EST

10:00 am
sonali: we are 30 minutes as the u.s. trading day and it's thursday, for very 15 and here are the top stories -- it weaker consumer, u.s. retail sales have dropped by the most in almost a year with broad declines in spending. bonds and stocks are still on the rise with yield back -- falling on the back of weaker economic data with another feather in the cap rate cuts. welcome to taxis and we will talk to the ceo of h&r block about the challenges and how americans are faring on pocket push -- pocketbook issues. ♪
10:01 am
sonali: welcome to bloomberg markets. let's get you a check on the markets. we are watching the s&p 500 back on the rise, about 0.2%. we have a nasdaq 100 not feeling the same kind of love, down more than 0.2%. alphabet and nvidia are the decliners along with cisco and the nasdaq 100. the yields are back on the decline. you have the bit in the bond market after the weaker economic data in retail sales making the case for more rate cuts. you still have yields higher on the week at 454 on the week. you are seeing only about a three basis point decline after eight basis points yesterday. we are off the highs by more than 10 basis points on the year. we will talk more about the stock market because hedge funds are buying into some of the biggest names in tech in the fourth quarter.
10:02 am
amazon, intel and nvidia are the favorites revealed in yesterday's 13f filings. when you look at what the hedge funds have been doing, is it remarkable to see them follow the herd back into these big tech names? >> it's interesting that's exactly right. they are following the herd. even though there are so many worries about the valuations particularly for some of these big cat tech companies, -- there is no indication for these companies piling on. as far as the ai hype is concerned, there isn't much hype. people think there is more to it than meets the surface and there is a lot of potential there for the sector to grow. . that is evidenced in a lot of the earnings results we have seen. there's been a lot mention of ai in companies want to leverage that technology so lots of room to grow for the sector and
10:03 am
therefore, hedge funds piling into there. sonali: and he or names that stuck out to you that were bought and the fourth quarter? -- any names or sectors that stuck out to you? >> it's what they didn't buy. they are not buying consumer focused stocks and some of the popular pandemic euro trades we saw few years ago -- pandemic era trades like nike and pfizer. that speaks to how hedge funds are reading the micro tea leaves at the moment. we got the reek just the week regional sales number earlier today, throwing caution over the state of consumers. we see that in terms of the activity in hedge funds. it's moving away from that consumer focused sector perhaps as we navigate this new era of maybe potentially higher for longer interest rates. sonali: we thank you so much. let's talk markets now.
10:04 am
when you take a look at where investors are putting their new bets, do you worry about valuations? >> the broader market valuation is certainly as rich -- it's probably 22 times earnings for the s&p. it's more expensive than it's been about 75 and 80% of the time over the last 25 years. harkening back to the prior segment where you looked at a lot of the hedge fund dollars, the hot money has been going to the ai fueled, the big mega cap tech bets. i tell my teenage is that sometimes there is wisdom in not following the crowd. we've been telling her clients as well that there's something to zig when otherszag. sonali: where you buy people are running away from certain sectors? >> one of the places that's
10:05 am
interesting that would be the health care sector. you got an with rich valuations so health care can play both roles, you can play defense of stocks are rich. likewise, you also have fantastic growth. that's the sector where you get the best value for growth and a lot of the health care names a lag to bit last year. they represent great value today. sonali: how do you feel about the financial sector? you seen some of the larger banks start to waiver on the heels of this higher for longer environment consistently inverted yield curve we're standing under. do you pick at that sector? >> you have to have a strong stomach and i think investors need to be selected. there is also opportunities within financials given the fact that in the fourth quarter, we had a rally in the market started pricing the possibility of soft landing.
10:06 am
the financials haven't necessarily kept up with that soft landing rally. it's a sector for which you have the lowest valuation. a lot of the big banks that pass the most strenuous stress tests. if you look at the regional banks getting hammered over the last couple of weeks, a lot of what happened there was firm specific. investors who are selective, there are opportunities. you have to dig into the numbers and maybe avoid those that might have excessive exposure to real estate or commercial real estate. that said, there could be great dividend payers and some solid ventures. sonali: how do you feel about the consumer these days? many of the sectors we focus on we look at consumers work faring worse than expected. to those weaknesses start to shine through when you look at
10:07 am
corporate earnings in the current quarter? >> throughout the last couple of years, the consumer has been the workhorse of the u.s. economy. the latest retail sales report was a little bit weaker than expected. it came down from what was really a very strong december. we caution investors from focusing too much on one data point. if anything, what we saw from that, it drove the focus back to the fact that perhaps the fed will have the ability to cut interest rates at some point by midyear. that ends up being a positive and finally, the case can be made that no one ever went broke betting on the u.s. consumers ability to overspend. sonali: you have consumers that event borrowing at -- on their credit cards a record pace. credit card debt has swelled well past $1 trillion in the united states.
10:08 am
at what point is that start to break? >> the case that could be made would be the fact that a lot of what started to eat into retail sales over the last month is been the fact that consumers continue to face higher inflation numbers. if there is a catalyst that investors can look for that might spur spending, it would be the fact that inflation figures have been coming down. it's not in the straight-line, but they should continue to pull back. if that's the case, the consumer probably should feel more comfortable and it should raise consumer confidence. sonali: what is your base case and emily rate cuts we actually get and what impact will that have a market? >> i think it's probably healthy for the market is the fact that when the fed pivoted last year and said we will cut rates, they suggested they might cut rates three times this year. what drove the market rally in december was the market said you
10:09 am
said three, how about six? you give a mouse a cookie and they will ask for a glass of milk. what we've seen for the last six weeks of this year has been a convergence between market expect tatian's and what the fed is saying. the markets have gotten -- between market expectations and what the fed is saying. it probably makes sense with respect to what would bring us down to the neutral rate with respect to the fact that those rate cuts don't necessarily have to happen because the economy is weakening but because inflation has been pulling back in the fed has to be cautious of the inflation-adjusted rates, the real interest rates becoming overly restrictive. for that reason, i think three cuts makes a lot of sense. sonali: we will be back with you in a minute but we will take a look at what's moving in the markets. let's talk about taiwan semiconductor.
10:10 am
we are seeing quite a rally there. jess: when you think of this company, you will associate it with a key chip supplier for nvidia. everyone's awaiting their earnings report next week. morgan stanley upgraded this when you look at what the price target is. it has a target around $750. it was around $600 prior to that you see a company like tsmc rallying on this and supporting overall the taiwan stock market. when you think about nvidia which overtook alphabet market value and overtook amazon. when you look at the stops with chipmakers this year alone, it's up already 9% so after a stellar rally last year so chipmakers are being supported today. sonali: let's talk about a flipside story, deere is saying
10:11 am
its worst day since november of last year. how are investors reacting? jess: you think about what this means for the global economy and when it comes to companies like this, when they are machinery makers come is been an issue when you are looking at crop supplies and thinking about corn prices. that's one of the most widely planted crop and its trading at its lowest levels since 2020. that was the height during covid. d when you look ateere they cut their annual profit growth. earnings are backward looking so they beat on that. when it comes to the forward projections, that's really cut the annual outlook so you are seeing those prayers sonali: sonali: pressure today. we talked about the consumer. it's one area you are not seeing weakness. jess: this stock is been up more than 62%. i'm in new york and i frequent this place often. when it came to margin, that's
10:12 am
been the key story at shake shack. what inflation has meant and a lot of these different restaurants had closed because of the pandemic but you are seeing same stores sales surging and seeing the margin outlooks there so that's something when you think about earnings and the momentum it comes to margin, that will help support the stock price. they have plans to open another 80 locations. it's getting a boost this morning. sonali: thank you so much for your time. we will talk about doordash set to report earnings today as it looks to expand beyond restaurant delivery. d still some that are up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:13 am
- [mo] if you're thinking about going back to school, this is for you. ♪ - i ended up spending less money my entire time at snhu than i did in just one year at my other university.
10:14 am
- [juan] my time at snhu has given me more confidence. now i can go for that promotion. - if you're ready to go back to school... you can do it. southern new hampshire university has changed my life. and it can change yours too. ♪ - [announcer] visit snhu.edu.
10:15 am
sonali: doordash is reporting results after the bell today and the company is expected to get a boost from investment outside of restaurant including categories like groceries, alcohol, pet supplies and flowers. manddep singh has the details. all in all, when you look at the retail sales data this morning, after the fourth quarter, do you get concerned about how pinched the consumer is? >> there is definitely concern around the consumer spending holding up. the secular trend is off-line to online shift. doordash continues to out execute the other marketplaces whether it's the likes ofuber on the delivery site or compare them to lyft.
10:16 am
just this year unit economics and a focus on execution, for doordash, it's far better and for any marketplace, it's about repeat rates and how you expand into other categories. doordash is done that successfully going from all-night restaurant delivery to other categories like convenience. the market delivery is huge so it's hard to say they are not executing. sonali: they have still doubled in stock price from a year ago. what does that mean for their valuation? how sensitive are they to any negative news? >> they are sensitive to inflation going up. inflation is going in their favor that's helping. also regulation. all these gig economy companies at the end of the day with worker reclassification, it will be a big drag if that happens. with the scale these companies
10:17 am
have, it's hard to argue. at the end of the day ,uber is generating about $60 billion in revenue for these gig economy workers in the same for doordash which is huge in terms of what they do for the economy. it's good to see them have scale and show they can be profitable. sonali: we will look forward to those earnings after the bell, thank you for your time. let's welcome back berns kenney. this has been a week for the gig economy and the sharing economy and we've seen buybacks we never seen before. is this a sector you would bet on? >> it's not probably one of the top places we've been looking. i noted that health care looks interesting. even industrials would be a contrarian play in this market as well. sonali: when you look at industrials and see the softness, we have ppi out
10:18 am
tomorrow. do you think the economy is strong enough to withstand any pressures to the industrial sector? >> in the near term, there could be some bumpiness. \ it would be an opportunity for investors to buy on the weakness side. you have some cyclical weakness but that's one sector that has a lot of long-term secular tailwinds working in its favor. that's the type of thing that can drive things if you're holding stock for 3-5 years. there are geopolitical turmoil and defense spending and infrastructure bills that passed. people are not talking about those as much anymore but a lot of that money is just now going out the door. it's not expected to peak for another two or three years. you have that as well as him overall rebuilding in the u.s. manufacturing base. utilization is at reasonable levels that suggests that
10:19 am
companies have to start investing in plants and equipment because stuff gets old and starts breaking. you don't really have stretch evaluations there. sonali: what are some specific names you like within the sector? >> one would be a name likel3 harris. you can get that in the low teens and traded about 20% discount. electronics and defense, they have attractive dividend yields. because they merge, that put it into the top five or six of the largest u.s. defense contractors. that's one in which scale really plays a crucial role. sonali: what tuc specifically within health care? -- what do you see specifically in health care? >> a name like agilant jumps out.
10:20 am
it trades at the discount to historical averages. the nice thing about the suppliers that provide measuring instruments, it's the type of thing that's a pick and shovel play. investors don't have to be smart to know which drugs will succeed and fail. they will all have to use products from a name sonali: sonali: like that. one reason a lot of investors like health care is a development process and particularly them&a outlook in that industry. how dangerous a play could that be? >> the m&a outlook creates opportunities. a lot of investors like to make a top-down call on that. if you can make your money on finding names that are undervalued, you could -- that ends up being a testament on good old-fashioned stockpicking.
10:21 am
sonali: how do you feel the risks to the market can be compounded over time? and a strong economy, they are set to grow. to what extent are you looking for macro data to weaken materially? what would scare you? >> it's the type of situation in which there is certainly a lot of uncertainty with respect to if we had a second wave of inflation that might prevent the fed from lowering interest rates. that could put at risk the soft economic landing narrative that investors talk about. i think we are also telling investors that if you're going to build a foundation for your portfolio, look for companies that have recurring earnings, predictable earnings, look for companies that have clean balance sheets. they don't necessarily have to rely on banks for refinancing. one of the best ways to ensure a
10:22 am
portfolio would be to look for companies that are paying and specifically raising dividends. that's something for which capital gains can be positive or negative but that's a way investors can consistently and continually book some cash to cushion the downside. sonali: you said you expect maybe three rate cuts this year. what if you get none? if investors don't see the materialization of rate cuts or even only one or less than expected, how would that impact equity values? >> that would probably, in the near term, it would be certainly a negative effect. it has a lot to do with the reasoning for which you don't have any cuts. if it's because of the fact that inflation really flares up and you have a second wave of inflation, your set of by france. if inflation remains at three or 4% or go back up to 5%, that
10:23 am
should correlate with market pima's that would be lower than today. they should take a hit for that reason. on the flipside is if you don't see any rate cuts because the economy continues to turn along -- and show solid growth, the very least, that might drive forward earnings to offset that. sonali: portfolio manager, thank you so much for keeping and i on these markets with us. we will take a look at the companies making the most social buzz today. social climbers are up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:24 am
10:25 am
sonali: it's time now for social climbers, look at the stocks making waves on social media this morning. automaker stellantis is warning of a tough year ahead thanks to
10:26 am
softer vehicle prices. it is the ceo a little earlier. >> we expect 2024 to be quite turbulent. stellantis is all about sports and racing. it is in our dna to race which means we like it because it's competitive time in which you can demonstrate you are better than the other guys. it's an opportunity to show a competitive edge for the company. sonali: the jeep maker is planning for new buybacks and higher dividends. next, filings reveals that nvidia holds a stake in ai. finally come investors are raising a glass to improving sales in irish whiskey. it points to higher demand in the united states and warns that china drinkers remain cautious. you can follow the latest company buzz ontrn on your
10:27 am
bloomberg terminal. we will take the pulse of u.s. consumers with the h&r block ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free.
10:28 am
10:29 am
10:30 am
sonali: january retail sales data decline the most in nearly a year raising questions about the durability of consumer spending. joining us is michael mckee. what concerned you the most? michael: the issue is why they spend less, is it because they had less money and the weather was terrible. some hints of both. the good news for the american people is that during the last nine months we are seeing average hourly earnings rise above inflation.
10:31 am
americans are finally getting ahead and that should enable them to keep spending. see the gains that they have had have been going out. and we will see if that really continues to help. we have also seen strong job growth and even stronger than anticipated and all those additional people with jobs will spend money. as you mentioned they did not in february and that will be a worry going forward for the economy. where they just taking a break because they could not get to the store or because they do not have as much money as they used to, that will be one of the key questions. the way to early award the fact that americans were making more money goes to the treasury department because we have seen tax receipt so far higher than they were a year ago. the question is does that continue and as you mentioned we are only just beginning the tax filing season.
10:32 am
early quarterly payments in january much stronger than they were in january year ago. let us see what happens and hope that we continue to see in -- continued income games -- danes along with the tax situation and budget deficit. sonali: we are going to talk about taxes in a second. we had critical data and retail sales and producer prices. what are traders listening to the most? inflation -- mike: inflation. there are some questions about cpi but it was not a good look for the fed. that cpi went up and we had those disappointing retail sales. if the economy is going to slow that will suggest that inflation slows as well. the fed is in between and that is why they are talking about let us wait a little bit longer before we have to make a decision.
10:33 am
sonali: thank you so much for keeping an eye on the data and for more on the consumer we are joined by jeff jones, h&r block chief executive. you give a study on how americans are faring, and what was surprising is that it conflicts a lot with this strong economy and everything is ok narrative. what is going on? jeff: can i just acknowledge i am from kansas city, and we had a tragedy yesterday with the mass shooting. our company has been embedded since 1955 so i want to acknowledge that i am happy to be here with you but our hearts are reeling with everyone suffering in kansas city right now. we have such a unique -- a unique perspective for a couple of reasons. we sit with tens of millions of people a year. we also did a study last year called the outlook on american life where we looked at over one
10:34 am
billion anonymized data points from the tax returns. and so that view is a very on the ground view with the consumer. so inflation might be down, but in many categories it is still very high. wages might be up that it is not keeping pace for the demands that people have. jobs and unemployment are great, but we are seeing more and more millennials get a second job or a side hustle. i do think it is important that the macroeconomic data is one view, but we start from the consumer up we are definitely seeing a different perspective, wallets are strained, the mindset is incredibly resilient and we see that as well. sonali: how much does it concern you about a barbell economy being created? jeff: for our consumers we serve hard-working americans so we do not necessarily see a barbell economy emerging.
10:35 am
what we see are people who need the refund and turn to us for expertise because every dollar matters. one other quick story that we announced, we offer a short-term lending product in the holiday shopping season called the emerald advance. the volume was up 25%. so i think that also speaks of the short-term cash needs that consumers really have. maybe despite some of the macro trends. sonali: some of the macro trends, the reality is that you saw spending subside in the beginning of this year, but what about after tax season when people have less money because of the taxes they have to pay. how does that change the equation? jeff: keep in mind that most americans get a refund. the average might be a couple of thousand dollars depending on the year. they have this influx of cash. for most americans it is already spent. they are not thinking about
10:36 am
planning a vacation or some elaborate purchase, they are paying their bills or catching up on debt. again, for most americans a refund comes in but it is spent before it arrives. sonali: what does this mean for the uncertainties that they will be facing into the season. we were talking to mike mckee, people are paying earlier but a lot of people wait until the middle of april. so, how much uncertainty is there with things like the child tax credit? jeff: think about the tax season , in our view, it is 105 days from january 1 to april 15. every single day is a different consumer is -- is a different consumer in the tax season. in the early part it the consumers that file fast and get their money. later in the season it tends to be people who are getting the refund -- they oman and they tend -- owe money and tend to wait.
10:37 am
the child tax credit will impact both consumers. right now we are waiting for it to come out of the senate. the irs will take a couple of weeks to provide guidance on how to administer. but we are used to that. every year there are changes and last-minute things so we are ready whenever that comes. sonali: when you think about the issue of politics and the election and any changes there might be in taxes moving forward, how do you think of that uncertainty and is there anything you will take a stance on? jeff: for us, we have been through so many republican or democratic presidential changes in our history. what really drives change is uncertainty with consumers and their need for expert help. so in a presidential election depending on what happens with policy we might see change that could create uncertainty. that is what we pay attention to. we cannot predict what will happen but all we can do is to
10:38 am
be ready to respond. sonali: the natural thing to ask with a deficit where it is, can taxes be expected to go up meaningfully for all americans? jeff: that is a big question on the table depending on which are -- which direction the election does. sonali: let us talk more about the season, big unknowns. you think about capital gains and cryptocurrency, how many investments are we thinking about getting around investing? jeff: less and less. we saw a spike around crypto and hedging -- and helping educate people on tax implications. right now i think people are focused on income, refunds, child tax credit is certainly a question. it could be a nice benefit for people if it gets approved and if it is retroactive for these -- for the season, those are still questions. when the irs released their first public data may be a week
10:39 am
ago, they showed that the industry tax filing volume was down about 19%. which simply means timing. this year, more people are waiting to file and we think in large part it is waiting to get resolution on the child tax credit. sonali: all in all, how do you think operations at h&r block will be impacted? what will be the drivers? jeff: volume, the number of people who come in and the number of experts. we anticipate a normal tax season believe it or not. there of been a lot of unusual winds, meaning that the industry grows 1%. we have been doing this since 1955, we know how to deal with the changes that come at the state or federal level. we are ready to serve our clients. sonali: jeff johns, -- jeff jones we thank you for the time. let us get a check on the markets. abigail: the s&p 500 off of it size of .1%.
10:40 am
it is the nasdaq 100 that is lower, not a lot. it is worth noting. down .3%. natural gas had been up more than 1% on the cold weather and up modestly. in the bloomberg dollar index down. let us check in on yields. there was quite a reaction and yields dropping. a bid for bonds on the weak retail sales number and down 11 over the last two days. there is a haven feel. that has to do with some of the big tech selling, and alphabet stock is down more than 2%. closer to 3% on a report that openai might reportedly be developing a search feature. microsoft is not higher. again, big tech is lower and then apple is down 1.2%. berkshire hathaway has started to trim that position. as we check in, this is a great
10:41 am
example of why technicals work. you have all of this choppiness over the last several months which likely represents some of the selling pressure from berkshire hathaway. they do not want to sell on a straight line otherwise it will reduce their profit. this is taking apple down. the momentum is going to the downside suggesting that the selling might be why apple is down 5%. we will not know that until may with the next round of 13 coming out. certainly something to keep an eye on. as go apple, the market goes. sonali: abigail doolittle we thank you. we will be joined by liberty cantrell, head of u.s. policy to discuss how the fed handles a presidential election year. that is for wall street week up next.
10:42 am
10:43 am
psst. hey, sarah. hi. if you had to choose, would you listen to elevator music all day or deal with payroll compliance? payroll compliance, for sure. wait. for real?
10:44 am
switching to gusto made staying compliant much easier. on top of seamless payroll, they automatically calculate my taxes and file with the right agencies for me. can gusto help my small business with compliance too? definitely. thank you so much. choose payroll compliance without the ups and downs. that's working with gusto.
10:45 am
david: this is wall street week and i am david westin. we have been doing a series of reports on wall street votes, the difference that the presidential election could make on wall street. we welcome back liberty cantrell. thank you for being here. do not know a lot of the election. we think it might be donald trump against joe biden. assuming those are the candidates, what could it mean for wall street, and let us start with fiscal policy. >> the first big fiscal inflection point that either joe biden or donald trump would have to address in 20 funny five -- 2025 aside from the debt limit would be the trump tax cuts on
10:46 am
the personal side. if you remember that when the tax cuts were passed they extended the personal side through 2025. those all expire at the end of 2025. the big inflection point will be that and that will depend a lot on who is in the white house. really importantly, with the composition that congress is, the senate controlled by democrats and the house by republicans. we could see both chambers flip because of the senate map. you could see the senate controlled by republicans and the house by democrats which means a muddled middle. trump will want to extend all of those tax cuts on the personal side. president biden would want to do partial. it will come down to congress. if either has a clean sweep that we can assume that all of the tax cuts would be extended under a trump republican congress. free democrats, part of them would be -- for democrats, part of that would be extended.
10:47 am
the bottom line is bond invest -- as bond investors is that both of them will likely extend some tax cuts and be deficit financed and it will not be paid for meaning that debt in -- debt issuance will go up. david: talk about the debt and deficit, it is not -- it is much talked about and not much done. is there a difference between these two policies? mainly when i talk about this people say address entitlements and social security. i do not sure -- i'm not sure either side wants to. libby: the deficit is the big loser under either biden or trump for that very reason. you can increase revenues by increasing taxes which is not very popular which is why president biden has talked about it. you look at the fiscal trajectory of the united states, so much of the increase in the deficit and collective debt is because of entitlements.
10:48 am
the country is aging and more folks are going on social security and medicare. as a result if we don't do something and reforming the benefits for folks who are 30 or 40 years old the deficit picture will not change. and both trump and biden have basically taken reform off of the table. they have run on the mantle of actually preserving social security and medicare. bottom line, deficits will big -- will be the big loser and then probably will have some urgency around reform of attic care and social security because those trust funds will be depleted in the early 20 30's. david: one place that there would be a difference is energy because donald trump has said he wants more drilling and greenhouse gases and joe biden has a different call -- different policy. libby: ironically in terms of both oil and gas production we
10:49 am
have seen some of the historical highs under president biden which is not something that he is touting because he knows that is not a winning position with his environmental folks. if trump were elected what we could see is what we would expect, undoing of much of what president biden has done in terms of the drilling on federal lands and what have you. the prohibitions that biden has put into place and the undoing of what trump had done, it will be the undoing of what biden has done. if president biden wins, one thing that will be clear is that the inflation reduction act which is $600 billion in terms of green tax credits will be preserved. there is no way he will sign anything into law that will dilute that. importantly, even if trump is elected there will be some lip service about rolling back inflation reduction act but i do not think that will get a vote in congress. by that time there will be lots
10:50 am
of projects in republican districts and republicans will be loath to undo that. you will see some tweaking not a wholesale rollback. david: we heard a lot about tariffs and trade as former president trump is unspoken about a 10% -- outspoken about a 10% tariff around the world. do we expect that there will be a big difference in trade policy? libby: both gentlemen have shown that they are both protectionists. president biden has kept on the tariffs that president trump had imposed on china. i do think that there will be some changes, particularly if trump is elected. what he has said on the campaign trails is 10% flat tariff. there is a real question of does he have the legal ability to do that. go back to president nixon, he did the same thing in 1971. he put a 10% import charge on all imports.
10:51 am
we will see what happens and a lot of lip service does not translate into reality. that is something that president trump is talking about. a 60% tariff on chinese goods. he has the authority to do that and has used part of the trade act, section 301 in 2018 to impose tariffs on china and i think he would use that again. i think we need to take him seriously and literally in terms of trade policy. he thinks they are an effective tool and some of us might disagree that he will likely pull that level -- that lever and the president has a lot of unilateral authority. david: you and i have been talking about the elected offices, what about the federal reserve, you might think that is to decide, but we get a lot of questions about is the fed taking it into account and does move them one way or the other? libby: this is our number one question whether or not biden and trump will be the rematch,
10:52 am
this is the number one question. while the fed act in an election year and particularly as i get closer to the election or will they try to sway the election. if you look at data, the fed has moved every election cycle since 1980 either in terms of rates or with the balance sheet. what we know is that they are not afraid of either cutting rates or importantly raising rates in an election year and as you get closer the same thing. they still actually cut or raise rates. we need to take chairman powell at his world -- at his word that he has data dependent and he is looking for the health of the economy and inflation. and he will adjust rates accordingly and politics or tertiary and -- are tertiary in his mind. david: you talked to a lot of clients and do see a lot of places where wall street is mispricing and people might be overestimating or
10:53 am
underestimating the difference. libby: our foreign clients in particular are a little bit befuddled as to how this big diverse and young country that we have to focus on the older side and to sort have been around the block, so to speak. i think of course there is some concern about the posture towards the external when we talk a lot about domestic policy. in terms of foreign policy there are big differences between the two and i think some of our foreign clients in particular are concerned about the general retreating of the united states under either biden or trump, but the retreating and the withdrawing of some of these multilateral organizations. that is a big difference in terms of foreign policy, a concern from foreign clients. david: always great to have you. libby cantrell of pimco. watch wall street week where we will talk to richard hines, and now both former head of the council of relations and we will
10:54 am
talk about the policy of differences. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:55 am
10:56 am
sonali: let us take a look at some stocks in the highs and lows. csx hitting a 52 week high. it is increasing its quarterly dividend to $.12 a share. sherwin-williams also hitting highs after it raises its quarterly dividend 18%. equal nor shedding its oil refinery in western norway because a fire broke out in its electric kiosk. it is unclear when production comes back online. coming up the lambda ceo joins caroline hyde and ed ludlow. stick with us, the big u on big tech. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:57 am
thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now.
10:58 am
10:59 am
11:00 am
>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power can lied in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg's out -- bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: i am caroline hyde in new york. ed: i am ed ludlow in san francisco and this is bloomberg technology. caroline: cisco shares under pressure after delivering a disappointing outlook with plans to cut thousands of jobs. ed:

58 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on