>> good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. these are the stories that set your agenda. nvidia posts the biggest single day gain in market value in history as its record-breaking run powers markets to fresh highs. but hong kong and china buck the trend. be patient. top fed officials bolster the case that policymakers are on trend to cut is just rates this year -- interest rates this year, but not anytime soon. standard chartered announces a buyback as the lender beats on profit. we will be speaking with the ceo bill winters about the company's restructuring plans. let's bring you the redhead coming through from allianz. europe's largest income -- insurance company. 2024 operating profit for allianz between 13 billion euros

to 15 billion euros. the estimates have been for 15.48 oem euros so the top and marginally higher in terms of the forecast for 2024 operating profit for that insurance giant. in the fourth quarter, profits coming in at above the estimates as well. 3.7 7 billion. i will be speaking to the cfo of valley on's later in the show on those earnings. what they are seeing in terms of pimco will be really interesting. that's at six: 40 a.m. u.k. time. the top line coming through in terms of the buyback of the billion u.s. dollars plan. and then forecasting around 5 billion dollars in terms of the buybacks over a three-year time. it was a profit beat for standard chartered.

again, the bank raising the full year dividend by 50%, targeting higher returns. the focus on returning cash to shareholders. there had been discussions around changes at the bank, a fit for growth plan has been announced to create efficiencies. we will be drilling into the details with the ceo, joining me in the studio shortly to discuss those earnings. that interview at 6:30 am here in london. the details around basf. the chemicals giant seeing adjusted ebit rising to 8 billion to 8.6 billion in 2024. looking at earnings before interest at around that level. let's get the details on basf. let's get to these markets. if you had any doubts about the ai catalyst, it came through and those doubts were sidelined yesterday.

fresh records bursting through across the u.s. with gains of 3% on the nasdaq 100. 2% on the s&p. nvidia was the catalyst. gains for that single thought -- stock of 16%. european futures looking to add 1/10 of 1%. add 1/10 of 1%. the consumer feeling softer according to recent data. s&p futures looking to add 1/10 of 1%. nasdaq futures at 80,053. marginally higher again on the back of those gains of yesterday. let's look cross asset. you had data out of the u.s. confirming the strength of the economy. services data as strong -- stronger as well. euro-dollar at 108. 1.26 on the pound. 6/10 of 1% but holding above that $83 level. iron ore up 5/10 of 1%.

nvidia market value rising more than a quarter of a trillion dollars. the biggest single day gain in history. a massive rally around the world. let's get more with -- standing by with us. the market reaction to the nvidia story was pronounced. what are we looking for next? jill: you said it. it's a crazy number that you are looking at. a quarter of a trillion dollars added over the course of a single day. over the course of the last couple months, adding $700 million to reach that $1.9 trillion market cap. it's crazy stuff that we are seeing here. when it comes to nvidia, what you are seeing the market take into account here is this idea that it's epitomizing the strong fundamentals that are underlying stocks like this, tech stocks like this. rallying off of the back of the

ai boom. that's leading to optimism in the market today, even as we've had some policy speak, fed speak from officials talking about the course of interest rates, trying to get some clarity there. when you take into account just the massive news of this tech rally, it does speak to a lot of optimism playing across global markets right now. tom: as you allude to, it's the ai catalyst that is overshadowing what we are hearing from fed officials. let's take a listen to what some of the fed speakers have been saying the last 24 hours or so. >> i do believe that we may be in a position to see rates decrease this year. but i would caution anyone from looking for it right now and right away. >> the labor market can change dramatically. we have to be careful. we have to try to assess the different shocks that could hit the economy. >> i would like to have greater

confidence that inflation is converging to 2% before beginning to cut the policy rate. i would see an eventual rate cut as adjusting policy to reflect a shipping balance of risks. >> i will need to see another couple more months of inflation data before i can judge whether january was a speedbump or a pothole. tom: chris waller saying, what is the rush? given the resilience of the u.s. economy. how are markets assessing this? how are they adjusting to this? it seems like there's a consensus on no need to rush around the cut story. >> yeah. look at this point, markets are just taking these comments in stride. the fed speak reads to me like a lot of status quo. it's what we've been hearing from fed officials over the past few months. it's all data driven. this is exactly what we saw in the fomc minutes that came out the other day. the indication towards

inflation. traders are really betting on the idea of a cut coming in june or july. moving the needle significantly. underlying expectations of cuts to come. it's not time yet. we are still really mindful of what's happening with these pressures on the economy right now. what maze -- may jolt things is if we get any more specific timing from fed officials on what exactly the first cut is going to come. i don't think we are getting that level of specificity quite yet. tom: caution and patience are the watchwords now. excellent summary there. let's cross over to asia now.

the hong kong markets are standing out to me in terms of the lack of often is him -- optimism coming there. >> as you highlighted, it's about caution and patience when it comes to the fed. that's causing recalibration when it comes to the asia-pacific stocks. the gauge of them, japan goes for a holiday. the kospi, those are moving off the session highs. looking to be snapping that eight session winning streak. flipping the board. it's not just the nvidia rally from yesterday. it's also china data, despite signs of improvement. home places to cry -- prices declining at a slower place.

we are seeing the gauge of developers in hong kong. let's take a look at the offshore yuan. that has been extending the decline from yesterday. that's the yield gap between the u.s. and china. that's in focus. we've been seeing the u.n. moving the way that it is. there are also geopolitical risks. especially as we head closer to the u.s. presidential election. tom: thank you very much. she seven leaders are set to reaffirm their support for ukraine and call on russia to completely and unconditionally withdraw its military forces from ukraine. that's according to a draft statement seen by bloomberg. roslyn madison joins us for the details. give us an update. good morning. where does support lie across the g7 and what could that look

like? >> we are coming up to the war entering its third year tomorrow. you are seeing strong statements of support come out, this rhetoric from the group of seven in particular. these are european countries that have strongly supported rain throughout, alongside the u.s.. you are seeing leaders say, we are going to stand with ukraine into the third year of the war. emmanuel macron saying that he wants to gather leaders next week in paris to talk about how they can expand the aid that's going to ukraine to get the imf saying, maybe they will finally unlock the $900 million in aid for ukraine. the elephant in the room is that the u.s. is not unlocking $60 billion in aid for ukraine. that is stuck in congress. there's no sign it's going to become unstuck anytime soon. we are trying to keep our budget going. it's not just about military aid.

it's also financially. we are struggling to keep the lights on and struggling to keep war going. russia is making gains on the ground after months of stalemate. we are seeing russian forces make progress. ukraine says time could be running out here. yet the u.s. in particular is still arguing with itself over this aid. the statements of support from the group of seven, european leaders is terrific and important. what's really important for ukraine is the money. tom: that funding is a drop in the ocean. thank you very much indeed. our premier news director on the latest when it comes to g7 support, at least in terms of the rhetoric. we will be speaking to spain's economy minister live from the euro group meeting of finance ministers and central bankers and belgium. we talk about the fence, can commit an -- defense, competitiveness. the ceo of standard chartered joins me in studio. we discussed plans for a $1 billion share buyback.

that interview here in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: happy friday. traders reduced bets on ecb rate cuts after pmi data showed a surprisingly resilient european economy. private sector activity head an eight month high. germany's dyer manufacturing continues to act as a handbrake on the economy. eu finance ministers and central bank governors meet in belgium to discuss ways of boosting growth and competing with the u.s. and china. i'm joined by the spanish economy minister. thank you for joining us.

we are talking about you and your colleagues, talking about competitiveness. when i think about artificial intelligence, renewable energy, defense capabilities, the competitiveness of europe is not there. how do you address those challenges? what is the policy prescription for boosting the competitiveness of the eu at this moment? >> thank you very much. from our perspective, it's one of the key discussions going on for the next few years. when we face the competitiveness challenge discussion, we have to take a holistic approach. this is a matter of importance for the strengthening of our markets. it has to go beyond that. we have to think about how to close the huge investment gap that we will have for the next decades. we have to think about not only private funds, deepening our capital markets union, but also public funds.

these funds may come from our domestic space but they also have to come from the eu fiscal space and financing. we need to have eu instruments that actually contribute to the findings -- financing of public goods as well. all of these elements have to be into the discussion. that's what we got from today and tomorrow as well. tom: and your counterpart in france has suggested that he wants to cut red tape. to what extent is overregulation a problem at this point? carlos: i think this is one of the key challenges. we are seeing clearly that it's one of the demands from firms and the financial sector as well. we need to take a look at how far we've gone with administrative challenges and also an evaluation of whether some simplification could do the trick.

this is always somehow a low hanging fruit in terms of its fiscal cost. we have to go deep into that, i agree. tom: when we think about defense, when we look at the challenges of ukraine right now, the estonians have suggested joint and collective debt issuance to fund defense capabilities across europe. is that something that spain would support, minister? carlos: as i just said, there's an eu element to the financing of public goods. i think it's a matter of no-brainer that the green financing digitization, european security and defense are all eu public goods. tom: common debt issuance to fund defense. that is something that spain would support? carlos: i think there's an important element when we talk about defense, which is the eu

defense industry. in terms of fostering the eu defense industry, there's an element that can be of an eu dimension. here there is not only the element of common issuance but also the use of eu institutions which are ready to finance eu projects in terms of different industries but also in terms of fostering the remaining public goods as i just said. tom: switching focus to the economy of spain specifically. spain was something of an outlier last year in terms of the relative strength that came through for your economy. exports are playing an ever larger role. after you -- as you look to the softness across the euro zone economy, how much of an impact to you expect that to have on the export engine of spain amid softer growth across europe? carlos: as you just said, spain

was an outlier last year with 2.5% growth in 23. we grow five times above the euros on average. this was based on two pillars. the strength of our labor market. four out of 10 jobs in the european union, new jobs in 2023 were created in spain. also the second pillar even within already some deceleration among our main trading partners in the euro zone. for this year, we expect still to have growth above our partners. this is also the outlook from the european commission, who expect that spain will have double growth than european partners. we expect to reach our 2% growth target in 2024. this would be on the basis not only of strong internal demand but also resilience to external demand. we've maintained a resilient

sector even within the euro zone. tom: ok. when we think about monetary policy, your central bank governors will be stepping down. have you drawn up a short list? where are you and thinking about a successor? >> -- carlos: as you just said, the governor will be stepping down throughout the summer. so i think there is still time for us to go through the secession process. it's a bit early to say. tom: can you tell us what kind of qualities you are looking for in terms of who will be taking over? carlos: when you look at the track record of the governor, i think the qualities that he has shown, he is highly qualified, exceptional expertise. this is also the kind of qualities that have been and will be part of the decision when we name his successor or her successor.

tom: of course. we talked about macro policy. i have to focus on the corporate space. spain is going to take a 10% stake in that telecoms company. is that funding going to come through from the budget or will you have to raise additional funds to make that purchase? what is the timeframe? carlos: the specific details on how the operation will be conducted are being defined right now. but as you said, it's an operation that was decided just a few weeks ago. we are going through the details on how to do the specific financing. also with the negotiations about budgets for 2024. tom: it sounds like a could come out of the budget still, potentially. does it happen this year? carlos: of course. we are very confident. we are pushing to have the budget approved and all the efforts throughout the last few

months since we took over in the second term are geared towards being able to approve once again the budget for 2024. which would be instrumental to fulfill our goals to end 2024 with a 3% budget deficit. tom: ok. the economy minister of spain, we thank you for your time. we appreciate it. later, interviews with two members of the ecb governing council. the austrian central bank governors joins in the next hour. the bundesbank president speaks to bloomberg at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time. don't miss those interviews. coming up, a deep dive on the oil industry and its role in the green energy transition. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: let's turn now to our deep

dive on the oil industry. it grapples with its role in the green energy transition. the head of oil and renewable fuels at bloomberg nef. before we get into the transition story, get us up to speed on where things stand in terms of oil prices, the squeeze of consumers, the pull and tug between demand and supply. david: it has been an interesting few months. the worst performance in terms of gasoline price inflation over the past seven presidents. that level was at similar prices as when he sworn in. the way we apply tax duties to our fuels, you don't feel it in your pocket straightaway. in the u.s., it's looking good in terms of money in your pocket. in europe, less so. oil prices coming off. diesel and gasoline are struggling at high for european consumer. tom: is it enough to get

investment in terms of capex coming through? are we seeing a pickup in terms of that? david: capex coming back to 2015 levels. the hype of underinvestment is overdone to be honest. you are seeing investment in fields that are low carbon, low cost, existing fields in the middle east. that's looking positive. the real risk for prices is refinery closures. you could see supply domestically cut. even if you see crude prices soften, you are having a product price impact. tom: we remember the refraining -- refining priced margins. where are we in terms of the transition? where do things stand, through your lens? david: i think the tone of the european players has scaled back on the anti-oil conversation. you are seeing low cost as the key. you can ship -- camped shift away too quickly from things like oil and grant -- gas.

price spikes for things like gasoline and diesel which is fine for europeans and u.s. consumers. other parts on the world that rely on this for heating, that's painful. you are seeing investment in oil all the way up to 2040 even in a net zero world. you need to scale up and low carbon supply, a replacement for oil before you can see demand being pulled. tom: really smart analysis. thank you for coming into the studio with that breakdown. coming, standard chartered shares rise after the fourth quarter profit beats estimates. the ceo of standard chartered joins me in the studio next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage

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yvonne: good morning, this is daybreak europe and these are the stories to cite your agenda. nvidia hits fresh highs in hong kong and china buck the trend. officials bolster that policymakers are on track to cut interest rates, just not soon. standard chartered announces a buyback as they beat on profit. we will speak with the ceo about restructuring plans and earnings. let's check in on markets. gains for the single company of 200 77 billion u.s. dollars in one session, gains of 60%.

nasdaq was up in the s&p close higher. futures in europe pointed to gains. ftse is flat. s&p futures looking to gain a 10th of a percent. nasdaq futures are unchanged, living at the 18,000 level. we've got speakers from the ecb coming up, so focus on the euro-dollar, 108. brent is down 6/10 of a percent. the housing crisis story in china is improving around margins. 3/10 of a percent of the gain. let's get back to earnings. the banking story, standard chartered shares are jumping after profit beat estimates. the lender announced a $1 billion buyback and plans to

return money to investors as it looks to improve returns and boost its stock price. i'm joined by the chief executive. thank you for joining us. how are you feeling? >> very well. >> the buyback is in line with the last few years. are you lacking ambition? >> when we set the target, we've done five-and-a-half in two years, so we exceeded initial expectations. we were able to buy back the stock because we are doing well. we are investing for growth. we've got great growth, forecasting strong growth for the next three years. we have good control of expenses, low in airmen's. we generate equity to invest in the business and give a chunk back.

we've extended our guidance to say beyond what we said years ago, we are doing five here. tom: do you hope to top that? >> if we can outperform the guidance, which we have done, there is more to go, but we will look for ways to drive growth. yvonne: give us granular detail. >> we said we would take out expenses and now we said it may take 1.5 billion out by accelerating the transition of our bank. investment in technology. the last phase of the transformation, excellence

interfaces with clients. we are going to complete the task and look across processes. so shared service centers or centers of excellence that can leverage our excellence horizontally. making it easier to get things done, a better experience. tom: bloomberg has reported on restructuring, moving out from the corporate part of the business. is that still part of the thinking? >> in that we've got a nice trading business which does well. flow oriented, all about ongoing day to day activities. fantastic transactions. we have a lending business. it is integrated.

>> there is nothing to carve out, it is half of our bank. tom: are you pushing back on the restructuring story? >> we have a plan that is about transferring the way we get things done. we will adjust to the strategy so i will treat the organization -- tweak the organization continuously. aligning evermore to the strategy. so constant change. tom: return on tangible asset targets were met. some say we need ambition. stock is down 40%. there needs to be a more comprehensive plan to extract value from the business. >> we are not happy with the

share price and we ask ourselves all the time why does the market not recognize the value in part is there is a sense that it is hard to get things done. this program will tackle that. there is a sense that cost base is high and there are two ways to do that. get the income up and make sure cost growth is slower. that is a key component of our strategy. we are going to maintain discipline that had us generating impairments lower than stored collateral which gives us can ask the two and best. tom: are we going to see headcount cuts? >> you will see a transformation of the way we do business.

tom: what about jobs? >> rules will disappear. clerical or administrative jobs. tom: thousands? >> typical attrition is 10 and 13,000 people per year. we've got 30,000 people in india. most of the transformation we handle through attrition. when we transform the business, we know roles will go away. we know that years ahead of time so we train people early. we have a massive program for retraining in our objective is to have every person have a chance to remain in the bank their role goes away. tom: when it comes to china and the real estate market, you think maybe we have hit the bottom, do you stick to that? >> i have not called a bottom,

just to be clear. we've seen quarters of stability with stimulus that kept it from falling. we have got 88% coverage on at risk real estate. we have written it off. i hope we get recoveries but it will be long recovery. we were way ahead of the market as we were in other provisions related to other businesses. we set a target of doubling profits in china and we've almost on that in two years. the juxtaposition of china having a tough time with we doubled our profits, that is a good outcome because we are generating topline growth. those connections are strong. tom: any impairments? >> know, virtually no

impairments. we did in earlier quarters and we took impairments earlier quarters, we took a small impairment. this is the mechanical calculation value. tom: this is an vocus in the west. do you see opportunities? >> we are not going to be heroes in the market, but we are underweight on commercial real estate and leverage finance, areas that have been hit hard. will there be opportunities to improve using our balance sheet? getting growth that been elusive, through some areas where we are out of harms way. tom: is it starting to look attractive? >> i have been in the higher for

longer rate cut group and i am no pundit in when it comes to interest rates but it's all that the u.s. straw -- job market is strong. that is what the market is saying. tom: there's not a chance you are involved in consolidation or changes in terms of taiex partnerships? >> we created two digital banks, opened a new bank in saudi arabia and egypt. we got a strong investment program and those investments input value. those are much more attractive than paying a premium for someone else's business. we announce the exit of seven african mark ids. sold the aviation business.

nothing material, but we have criteria for every thing and if we hit the criteria, we buy it and if we don't, we sell. tom: you are one of the longest-serving ce's of a major u.k. bank. almost one decade into it. what is next for bill winters and what do you want your legacy to be? >> in my time we said we want to get to a return on equity. it is no longer cost of capital, cost of capital is higher and we said 12% by, that is achievable and i would love to deliver that in 2026 where people say is 12 now but we could see 13, 14, 15, that is the legacy i would like to leave.

i'm focused on the day job. tom: thank you, bill winters. return to cash to shareholders. new share buybacks up to one billion euros as for the order profit jumps. i will be speaking to ceo claire marie. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ yvonne: allie yachts, europe's biggest insurer plans to buy back shares. i'm joined by the ceo, claire marie. how do these results set you up for the quarters ahead?

>> good morning and thank you. we delivered strong results. we have a profit at 14.7 billion euros on the back of the profit in 2021. that is the strength of our trajectory. what i like is all segments are delivering and that will support our outlook, which is 14.8 billion plus or -one billion and we feel confident in 2024. tom: you have the confidence to announce the buyback. as you look across the balance sheet and project, is there a

chance to reward more? is there more people do on the buyback front? >> as you've seen, we deliver new policy and increased our dividend by 20%, so that is quite a strong growth. we had announced a one billion share buyback, moving on the buyback in 2023. the confidence i was mentioning before, that is where we have a long history with rigorous capital management and we will continue doing that in the future. our numbers are strong. we have 162 billion total is this, which has been growing again and we focus on growth, so

that is part of our portfolio optimism. tom: the -- the -- the -- the acquisition. in terms of the buyback policy, there has been debate whether you stick through this ad hoc buyback plan or go for an annual buyback proposal. do you have a preference or a howitzer thinking evolving on that question? marie: er in a mid to long-term type of company, the way we manage. given the structure of liabilities, we also think that

he would have a preference for a share buyback on a yearly basis, allowing us to better manage capital deployment and return to the market what we think is best to return to the market. it is a better way to look at it, given the way we operate. i want to repeat in terms of capital management, we regard this as a change points. tom: how do you see insurance prices that evolving? are you able to push up prices in the quarters ahead? marie: we have double-digit growth made up of almost 7% of the prices in growth, so we've had pricing momentum and disinflation. definitely it is market by more

is, so it is difficult to tell you. there is the need for further pricing and i expect to see that doing also, depending on the market in 2020 or definitely. tom: what is your expectation around the asset management? do flows turn positive? are you seeing clients put more money into the business? >> yes, on the asset management side in 2020 read, we have been weights happy because they did better than expected patients, which was not easy because of the shape of the yield curve. what we think is it will have a

positive effect in the first six weeks of 2024. we have already mourned that inflows compared to the year of 2023, so we are in 20 billion plus. quite confident about the outlook for asset management in 2024. tom: do you expect the momentum to continue? and not be repeated across the year? >> i do not have a crystal ball. it is difficult to assess, but we expect in 2024, the yield curve will revert back to normal. that would be positive. definitely. so that is what i can mention to you. tom: you touched on

acquisitions. he pulled the trigger on another acquisition. how confident are you? are you allowing the team to put dry powder aside? how inquisitive are you prepared to be? what are you looking for? >> first of all, we have investment into waste management and network-based in the u.s.. that is a strategic move as we want to strengthen from a strategy perspective. between our life and segments together with asset management, it is about transforming spreads into a key business, what we have been aiming at for a long time.

the investment in partnership, we want to strengthen our net work and tap into our network in europe and asia. that's a very good platform. both asset managers, to ring their product. it is built on investments and strengthens our footprints. tom: ok. we have to leave it there, thank you. elian's is cfo. plenty more, stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪

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tom: welcome back. ripple effects of the nvidia story continue. record after record tumbling and superlatives keep coming. the maker of chips, a fresh record adding 277 billion u.s. dollars in market cap, a record we have never seen. the last time you got that kind of increase in was $197 billion from meta-. on a day when the stoppers was up 16% and a lot of analysts say that it is not looking overvalued because the earnings keep smashing it out of the park. let's have a look in terms of the trajectory. they added 240 billion just yesterday. about 700 billion in market cap this year and closing in on the

$2 trillion market cap, sniffing at the heels of apple and microsoft. they are closing in on 2 trillion, the largest tech company in the world. we continue to see whether the story revolves as the focus remains on nvidia. today, an exclusive interview with the seat the of a french hospitality group and we get insight into hotel demands. speaking to ecb officials as markets push back expectations. it markets today is next, this is berg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg markets today and i am anna edwards.