>> 30 minutes into the trading day. here are the stories we're following. stocks around the world hit all-time highs as the gold rally rolls on. the s&p 500 hit another record fueled in part by nvidia, set to become the first chipmaker to hit a $2 trillion valuation. we will talk about how that's shaking up etf world. and booking's bad day. a disappointing forecast for reservations and sends chairs spinning with the war in the middle east waiting on results.

glenn vogel joins in a bit. i am katie greifeld in new york. welcome to bloomberg markets. you take a look at markets and you can see we are still green when it comes to the s&p and the nasdaq 100 but quieter than what we have been -- accustomed to. you take a look at big tech, the nasdaq 100 trying to hold onto gains, up .1%. i did want to take a look at the philadelphia semiconductor index. we have been talking about nvidia so much this week. that has been boosting the index. taking a breather on this friday. let's get more details on the composition of this record run.

we do that with abigail doolittle. >> not only was that memorable because of the run, the blowout move to the upside by nvidia but also because it was a 2% gain into a record high, a relatively rare event. typically, you take the stairs higher as opposed to leaping higher but here you have a greater than 2% move up. let's break down what this has meant in the past. it's intended to mean that you are going to have some sort of a correction or major topic but the timing is tough so you can see back in september of 1929, there was a 2% move made into a record high. we had that krach not long after. in the 1950's, a 20% correction. in 1980, head of a 27% move -- ahead of a 27% move, there was a 2% move higher. in the early 1990's, not much.

you see this happen several times ahead of the tech bubble so it speaks to exuberance. now the most stable foundation but as we can see from history timing is tough. cite out of these highs but we don't know when. katie: great wrap up by abigail belittle. let's get more on these markets with the executive vice president and portfolio manager at alger. your notes and you to clear it's no longer the magnificent seven but the magnificent four. what happens to the other three? >> there are some companies leading the charge and some either need to develop into this new industrial revolution or

they will be left behind. take google for example. all -- google's business is at risk that search changes. tesla is going through a pause. we will see where they land. >> it feels hard to bet against google. do you have enough conviction that you would sell google or not add to that position? >> it's all opportunity cost of what will outperform and as of now, because we don't see google making the necessary steps forward to not only protect their search franchise but also to grow their business inside of ai, relative to the other

players,, it's more of an opportunity cost. what i rather have our capital in nvidia or google? >> that is the question. you talk about the existential questions facing the search business at google. who benefits from that? >> you know, i think we are so early in this cycle and it is unclear who the winners will be. microsoft a clear beneficiary if they can get being to work -- get bing to work. there's a new vendor sourced on an open stack. i use it everyday and is phenomenal. so it's a different way of searching that is not yet ad supported but will be and it's a better way to search. >> what nvidia is billed as and the reason people are so excited is it's not necessarily picking

a winner from who will best monetize ai the nvidia makes the picks and shovels that fuels all of this innovation we are seeing in ai. it is too early to pick winners but when it comes to the strategy of selecting parts of ai exposure that you want to have, is it the picks and shovels or the companies putting aliens a practice? >> it will be both. you take a look at our top two positions, microsoft and nvidia. nvidia are the picks and shovels that will benefit from the cycle we are embarking on. microsoft is the enabler. it's not confined to microsoft. there's a lot of different companies, service now, adobe. so there's the enablers of the technology that will have pricing power as we go through the cycle. you can also invest. and they will be the winners in

part because these are businesses that are now platforms. they are not point solutions. the platforms in the cycle will be at a structural advantage relative to point solutions. >> we are talking about fundamentals and clearly you see a trend underway, they cycle coming when it comes to these names, but how are you putting that against valuations, because a lot of people up to throw around the word bubble, especially when you look at a stock like nvidia, which has gone up a crazy amount the past couple years. how are you thinking about those factors? >> bubble territory is not a 20, 25, 30 multiple on earnings in a market that's growing as robustly as ai is. microsoft be growing mid to high teens for the foreseeable future at the size it is today. you are paying a high 20's multiple for it today. that's not egregious.

that's not what i call bubble territory in part because he waited couple years and it will be a higher multiple. nvidia, it looks like the stock is in bubble territory and you see the scraps of what cisco looked like in the bubble and i wholeheartedly disagree in part because last year at this time, the earnings for nvidia for 2024 were pegged at four dollars. today, they are approaching $20 to $30. so the sevenfold increase we have seen the stock is actually off of numbers that have increased sevenfold so the multiple for a year ago is the same. so i would argue that, especially for a business like nvidia that is driving this forward, we are going to put $1 trillion of extra into the ground -- extra capex into

the ground, that's huge growth. the numbers have not stopped growing. >> we are talking about these growth numbers, these eye-popping growth numbers, for mature companies. nvidia and microsoft have been around for decades so amazing to watch that. you are a portfolio manager. are you buying into diversification at all. are you all in on tech? how are you structuring your portfolio around these ideas? >> this next cycle in ai, i do think we are at the beginning of the next tech megacycle here as we will have to invest the entire world. the entire world will have to invest in making this transition and crossing the chasm per se into general ai and embracing. so there are many different ways to play this. it's not going to be confined to technology bird for example, --

to technology. for example, there's a company that makes crackers. it's become exciting because this new architecture needs a brand-new type of coolant. quantum services is another example. . they placed the cables in the ground. if jensen is right about the capital expenditure that needs to going to ground, we are going to be short electricity, and the beneficiaries of this are the people who build the capex or benefit from a growing so it will fill turn to the economy in ways that will be surprising -- it will filter into the economy in ways that will be surprising. you will see multiple expansion. this is why i have been saying we are in the midst of a stock

ticker's market. there will be swaths of the market that are deemed to be slow growers, but are not going to benefit from this, but occasionally there will be one of those that will take advantage of this cycle. >> it sounds like the take is there's different angles into this super cycle both on the long and short side. have to leave it there but enjoyed this conversation and hope to have you back. that is the executive vice president and portfolio manager at alger. let's zoom in and take a look at what's moving underneath the hood with bailey lipschultz. >> if i told you a stock was up 15% and not tied to ai, you have to bet on earnings, and that's what we are seeing with square these days, beating expectations, they focus on profitability, cutting costs. that showed up in the results and forecasts. that's what you see shares ripping this morning, outperforming the market. trading at a 52 week high.

uncertainty still abounds. this was a hindenburg short target both the endless notes the ability to turn on the ability to focus on profits standing out to wall street. katie: that focus on cost cuts, that disciplined -- cuts, that disappoint, cheers from traders on that. bailey: underperforming, this is a company that operates in the insulin space, glucose monitoring systems for diabetic patients, down 4%, underwhelming expectations looking at their 2024 guidance coming in modestly below what most analysts were looking for. i was chatting with a health-care trader i have known for a few years who was saying this could be a buying opportunity but there are issues with the numbers, some pull forward, and trying to balance that out, so that's what you are seeing shares down. relatively flat over the last

few months. >> if you thought that was bad in terms of share reaction, tell me about booking. >> underwhelming. i know you will talk to the ceo. the big thing from wall street and analysts is the fact their for 2024 for bookings is below what they were looking for, blaming issues with the middle east booking and things around israel and gaza. it is showing up. interesting to see what you get from that conversation. when you look at this stock up more than 60% in the 12 months prior to results, high expectations going into the print, underwhelming and forcing analysts and investors to rethink where booking fits. >> great round up. happy friday. that's bailey lipschultz. glenn fogel will join us in just about 20 minutes. don't go anywhere. before we get there, coming up, lotus set to test the market's ev appetite after disappointing results from rivian and lucid.

we will speak to the cfo next. this is bloomberg. ♪ how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now.

katie: katie: luxury katie: -- katie: luxury eeev maker lotus trading on the market today. joining us now for four from the nasdaq is elected -- is alexious lee. great to have you with us. let's talk about timing because lotus tech has been looking to go public since at least early 2022. why now? alexious: good morning. thanks for having us today. lotus right now is 80 years old.

we are in a good position. we have developed more cars. we think we are in a unique position where we are early movers in this space. we have made a commitment to do full electrification and the listing will enable us to execute our strategy and fulfill our commitments to shareholders and investors. katie: when it comes to going public in 2024 versus 2023 or 2022, is there anything we can extrapolate their from this is lotus tech's thinking on the public market appetite and appetite for ipo's? alexious: we have raised $880 million from this transaction. it's a sign of confidence from investors that the lotus brand is well as an early mover in a segment of the ev market. if you look at the results of

our research, you will realize this sector we are in, priced between $80,000 and $150,000, is expected to grow 35% in the next 10 years, so we are in a unique position where we are early movers offering full electrified models. we currently have four models in hand and two more models coming. at the same time, we have thousands of owners from 200 stores worldwide. it is telling. probably the right time for us to do this. katie: i want to get into the fundamentals of the business and the lineup you offer but i want to quickly ask the method through which you are going public. why through a spac versus a traditional ipo? alexious: the most important thing is a partner to us.

they have great resources to consumer insights and lvmh resources and we think this is a win-win combination where great companies get together so we can continue to develop on prospects like marketing and customer engagement. this offers a lot of prospects for us. we have a chairman and ceo of lvmh north america on the board of directors. katie: that is something i have been wondering about. are there any specific tieups we can expect and you can share today? alexious: there's a lot of things in discussion. we are here for the long game. the relationship we are going to develop your will last a long time -- develop here will last a long time.

we have a good foundation with them. we think it's going to help us execute our strategy, develop our growth potential, and deliver our commitment to shareholders and investors. katie: we will keep an i out for what comes out of that partnership. let's talk about the ev market, which you have touched on a little bit already. you're going public in a week where we have seen rivian and lucid get there stocks punished. you have seen traditional carmakers also pull back on their ev production plans as well. are you concerned by the recent ev slowdown? how are you thinking about that as you finally enter the public market? alexious: i think lotus is unique. we are actually a global brand. we are established globally with more than 200 stores. we are selling our cars in asia and at the same time in the eu and u.k..

we are entering new models into the market. we are going to more markets with more models and more stores. right now we have 200 stores. the plans have 300 by the end of next year. this will enable us to have better customer experience, drive sales, and at the same time, most important, offer service coverage. katie: and i'm curious, from your perspective, how does demand different in different geographies when you compare the u.s. versus the e.u. versus asia when it comes to ev's? alexious: different markets, different trajectories. i am singaporean. we have had this for a long time. it is something that resonates with every person in my generation. so sports car electric vehicles, suvs, is something that resonates in the u.k. market,

the smaller version, the sedan. we offer a full variety of products. and that is why it's so important that in 2018, we had this strategy, we have committed full electrification. the second is the goal of the expansion of our product range be on the sports card to the suv, sedan and others that range beyond the sports car to the suv, sedan -- range beyond the sports car to the suv, sedan and others. katie: lotus tech all electric. would you entertain the idea of introducing a hybrid for example? alexious: we are committed to full electrification as part of our strategy. we stick to our strategy. we think it is well-placed and will continue, given we are listed today, make sure we can put it in place and deliver our promise. katie: appreciate your time. i know it's a busy day for you.

that is alexious lee, lotus tech cfo. we will take a look at the companies making the most social buzz today. social climbers up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults.

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katie: time now for social climbers, the stocks making waves on social media. the commercial space start up machines making a buzz after its lander touched down on the moon yesterday, the first private aircraft to land on the moon's service desk surface intact -- moon's surface intact.

kara vona saying it expects improved earnings this quarter and the stock is soaring about 35% at the moment. cannot say the same for warner bros., missing fourth-quarter estimates. the media giant continues to struggle as consumers cut the cord and advertisers pull back on spending. you can see that in the shares this morning, down over 12% and looking at an all-time low for warner bros. and discovery. you can follow all the company buzz on trengo on your terminal. coming up, turbulent times for booking holdings. the company issuing a disappointing forecast for travel reservations. we will speak to glenn fogel, booking holdings president and ceo, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie: a disappointing forecast on reservations. >> the stock is down by the most since february '22. the company expects growth for room nights booked, when it comes to full-year guidance, it would be slightly above 7%.

analysts expected nine. numbers slightly beat expectations on gross bookings, revenue and adjusted eps. room nights sold came in at 9.2%, below expectations but the ceo said if we exclude israel and business associated with israel, the number would be 11%. rental car business, 10.7% increase, also below expectations. airline tickets sold was impressive. when we talk about airline travel, this chart shows traffic in the u.s. it keeps growing. the number is below pre-pandemic levels.

will 2024 be better than '23? katie: that's the question. here to help, we're joined by the ceo, glenn vogel. i want to start with the geopolitical question. the fourth quarter room nights booked gained 11% when you excluded business associated with israel, impacted by the war. how is booking modeling that to your forecasts? >> it's a difficult thing. anyone trying to guess what will happen for the year there, difficult to do, but we expect to have this unfortunate event through the year, the way we

model it. peace would be a wonderful thing , for humans and business. war is not good for business. katie: putting it mildly. u.s. consumers. are you seeing travel to europe, asia or elsewhere lifting demand? glenn: we are global. we do business internationally, mystically. -- domestic, within countries. the only place we don't do business is where the u.s. or eu prohibits us. we are back to a 50-50 split between international and business within countries, which goes back to where we were pre-pandemic. during the pandemic, there was

more domestic business. we are going back more international. katie: china's economy. have we seen bookings in asia recover to pre-pandemic? glenn: it's exciting to see the growth. in the fourth quarter, asia business going midteens, which is a nice number. part of that, asia came out of the pandemic slower. it was recovering while the u.s. had already come out of the pandemic. we expect further growth in asia. in the long run, there is opportunity. the people in asia and gdp, we see china having a problem now but it is still fine.

think long-term. katie: sounds like that is a bright spot for opportunity. broadly speaking, travel demand expected for '24, how does that compare to '23, which was robust? glenn: people were talking about revenge travel. now, we enter the normalized environment, which is positive. travel historically has always gone better than gdp. the next thing, more people want to travel and get bookings online. still a lot of people don't do that. we still have that tailwind.

all the things just developing. the flight business. that's relatively new for us. for the year, last year, we grew 58%. good numbers. rental cars, insurance, packaging, rides, lots of things. that's another tailwind. then ai. we are all talking about ai. booking.com, we have the ai trip planner that enables someone to develop itinerary and booking. priceline.com's penny enables someone to answer a question they have in the middle of the booking process, another ai generative product that will help us. that is still early. i see those as tailwinds.

lots of things coming, with a great foundation. katie: when you look at offerings now, where do you see the most opportunity for growth? what's going to drive that in different operations? glenn: give a great price. people want a good price, which we recognize. then make it easy for somebody. travel is still complicated. lights, hotels, ground transportation, it's frustrating. that's where we are connecting the trip, bringing it together. these ai technologies will make it easier in the long run to do this. ics being in a better position than others because of our

scale. last year we did $151 billion worth of travel. we did over $1 billion in hotels last year. that's a milestone. having scale, data and great technologists, plus the capital, we are in the pole position of the race. katie: good place to leave it. enjoy this. thank you for your time. interesting conversation at a global level about demand for travel now. markets now with abigail. abigail: solid day for stocks. on the week, the s&p earlier had

been declining. not so much now. we have a 2% gain. last week, we had a decline amid a sea of green. crude oil down 2%, despite sanctions against russia. the commodity complex sliding because the sanction aren't against oil or metals, unlike 2018. we saw aluminum soar by 40% on the day. nvidia is higher for another day. the market cap gain yesterday, pretty amazing, topping meta's $200 billion move on top of earnings. nvidia makes the board twice. that was the first time they put

up a blowout quarter. into the context of other market cap monsters, behemoths, microsoft, the biggest market cap, greater than $3 trillion. nvidia trying to get back above $2 trillion. finally, we have the two year yield backing up 46 basis points. liquidity coming out of the system. big tech investors not caring. katie: amazing to watch big tech ignore the bond market. i'm sticking with market cap monsters. coming up, paul romer on the

role of u.s. trade policy in a fractured world. this is bloomberg. ♪ personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more than help you reach your goals. i can make this work. it can help you reach them with confidence. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 of our clients are likely to recommend us. ameriprise financial. advice worth talking about.

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abigail: coming up, this is bloomberg. ♪ katie: david westin sat down with paul romer on the shift in global trade relationships. paul: we need a more nuanced view going all the way back to the origins of my work, distinguishing ideas from objects. we want to encourage as much flow of ideas around the world

as we can but we don't need to worry so much about the flow of objects because we don't get much benefit out of trading the objects. there are costs associated with those. david: historically, economists tell us free trade is vital to grow the economy. if you cut back on free trade, do you give up growth? paul: no. it is the trade in ideas which is essential for faster growth. if you have a firm that invents a better pharmaceutical in the u.s., you want them to earn royalties on that over the world, because the returns on innovation will be higher and they will discover more things. that doesn't mean the pill needs to be manufactured in the u.s. the firm can get the royalties on the intellectual property.

during the 1970's, japan got better at making cars, according to quality control standards, and we came to an agreement where we said, toyota, honda, they can manufacture cars in the u.s. they could earn profit on the ideas and u.s. consumers could get the benefits of higher quality cars. cars were manufactured by workers in the u.s. that is the advantage of the restrictions of trade on goods. people have been left behind for the last two decades. david: there is a perception of with globalization, came the loss of a lot of middle income american jobs.

is that born out by the data? paul: middle-class is a vague concept. high school educated versus college-educated is the way to cut it. life expectancy. high school educated people die younger from depths of despair. look at employment. the average number of adults who have a job in the u.s. has gone down because the people who were high school educated have such miserable prospects, some of them have given up. some are staying in the market but they are suffering. life expectancy, willingness to work. these are the underlying indicators that tell us life is not getting better for a large fraction of people in the u.s. what do we do to give them a growth prospect like the rest of us have?

what will make it so they see progress in their lives and for their children who will do better than they did? david: free trade in ideas, not so much in goods. what about in capital? nippon steel wanted to invest in u.s. steel. the government expressed reservations on that. should we have restrictions on foreign investment in the u.s.? paul: that's by far the most important factor for moving ideas around the world. there's licensing, ip. it's firms that carry ideas. nippon steel could bring ideas in about how to make steel better. that's like toyota and honda had ideas about quality. ideas developed by a professor in the u.s., but no one listens to him, so he took ideas to

japan, they developed them, they turned out to be important, and we got them back through foreign investment. we want to protect our firm's ability to earn a return in other countries but also we want to fight for that and the ability for foreign firms that have good ideas to supply them to workers and consumers in the u.s. david: you are not a national security expert. how does that cut across this? there are some concerns investment from rivals in u.s. industries could undermine national security. paul: people are barking up the wrong tree here. on national security, we want to make critical security technology goods like chips in the u.s. so if things get really bad, we control the supply. things like masks, for the next

pandemic in the u.s. we are not self-sufficient in chips or masks. katie: david westin now sitting beside me. unconventional approach. david: i have not heard it before. free trade or protectionism, right? both parties have moved toward protectionism. he said you shouldn't treat ideas the same way as goods. it goes back to the reason he got the nobel prize. his theory was a theory of growth that depended on innovation and ideas. katie: does this align with one party? is biden or trump campaigning on this? david: no one is.

good point. we asked paul, he thinks the democratic party may be more open to it. certainly, what we have heard from former president trump, they are more interested in tariffs. katie: see if this catches on. great conversation. the big show tonight. david: we will continue the trade discussion with the former house majority leader, eric cantor. we also have josh friedman, cofounder of cantor. katie: great to see you, looking forward to it. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie: nvidia delivered for etf's, leverage bets on the chipmaker. talk about tickers. reporter: big week for double leveraged nvidia etf's. only approved a couple months ago. already massive trading volumes. it's a mouthful. nvdl saw a record volumes after earnings. look at the broader etf ecosystem this week. one of the biggest inflows relative to market cap. $136 million this week. one of the best-performing etf's

year-to-date, up 117%. the other one, the t rex, is up 134% year to date. katie: interesting there is any difference between them, since theoretically they track the same thing. we will dig into that office air. -- off air. what if we look beyond the shiny objects? what does this mean for semiconductor etf's? reporter: the broader ecosystem has seen inflows on chip stocks. it has to do with nvidia. the semiconductor etf has a 25% weight of nvidia, the top holding. that swelled to $15 billion in assets over the last several days, $600 million in flows.

hopefully people aren't getting in post performance. good luck to them. katie: some people will buy the top. thank you so much. markets now, gains here. quiet, not what we have gotten used to, but still, highs nonetheless. s&p broke above 5100 earlier. we are below that now. hanging out at .2% higher. the nasdaq 100 down .1%. small caps, that's fun. not that exciting. the russell 2000 unchanged on the day. coming up, mariana huffington

joins next. that does it for us. this is bloomberg. ♪ fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one. cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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announcer: this is bloomberg technology. caroline: nvidia tops $2 trillion in market value. plus, read it's filing --