tv Bloomberg Markets BLOOMBERG February 26, 2024 10:00am-11:00am EST
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>> 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day on this monday. you're the top stories we are following. flush with cash, berkshire hathaway inching closer to a $1 trillion valuation as operating -- operating earnings rebound. we speak to one investor with a 10% stake in the conglomerate. earnings season grinding on with big retailers from macy's to tjx taking the stage in addition to names such as zooms -- zoom and salesforce. commercial real estate contagion. real estate roundtable ceo says it'll take more than lower interest rates to stunt the distress.
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i'm katie greifeld in new york. take a look at these markets right now and it is pretty quiet across the board. i guess you can call that gains but still very muted compared to what we have gotten used to. the s&p 500 up by less than a 10th of a percent. this to the downside, but pretty much unchanged on your big tech index. retailers up this week. we will see how these numbers change. let's take a quick look at the bond market, taking a look at 10 year yields, currently higher by about a basis or two. let's start with one of the big stories. berkshire hathaway after warren
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buffett's conglomerate said there cash pile hit a new record. the company also racing into a $1 trillion market cap. joining us for more is sally bakewell and it sounds like they have a lot of cash but not a lot to potentially buy here. sally: this has been a perennial problem on an offer years. they are steadily building up this cash pile that hit another record at 106 he $7.6 billion after just topping a record last quarter. he does not have enough of the kind of neil moving deals that really helped his reputation as the sort of great investor. katie: when it comes to the appetite to do deals, we thick about warren buffett's trajectory, he'll be retiring probably sooner rather than later. do you think there is any pressure here on his part to get in one last big deal? sally: yes.
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he is 93, his investing right-hand man passed away in november. i'm sure warren buffett is under a lot of pressure to try and put some of this cash to work. that pressure is coming from private equity firms that are able to -- they want to pick out over the existing companies that they are looking at -- not particularly many opportunities to put their cash to work. in terms of a needle moving acquisition, warren buffett said that the chances of getting something that would enable them to generate the kind of eye-popping results they have been used to in the past was nearly impossible. katie: setting expectations, sally bakewell, thank you very much. let's keep the conversation going with scott phillips from templeton and phillips capital management. you have a 10% stake in
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berkshire hathaway and i want to start with that scamper tent -- with that 10% skate -- 10% stake. scott: to clarify quickly, it is a 10% position, not a 10% ownership. i think when you look at the cash pile and where warren buffett goes from here, it is important to focus on what is going on at the business overall, and the positive impact of interest rates that are fueling this firepower for berkshire hathaway to go and deploy capital. on the other set of that equation, people call it a higher for longer environment. we will see how that plays out. moving alongside this cash pile, we are going to continue to see additional pressure across the u.s. economy who do not have
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multi balance sheets. the key to unlocking the big move from a capital allocation standpoint for mr. buffett, i think if you see some credit dislocation, some type of downturn, some type of rollover and turmoil, other it is the economy or the markets, i would expect them to act on that. katie: when it comes to the cash file from the investor perspective, how much of a comfort is it that they are earning a lot more on this cash, close to $168 billion, than they were a couple years ago? scott: i think it is wonderful. when you look at what made berkshire hathaway great, it was this powerful dynamic between the pnc business, which is smaller than it has been but still just under half the overall earnings, and the float that it generates, and the
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careful use of that float towards smart capital allocation decisions, making why -- making wise investments. that has been the bread-and-butter of berkshire hathaway throughout its history and now we are back at that point in time. the problem is, as everyone has pointed out, it is $168 billion. if you're in the world of financial problems and i'm sure you see a bunch across your desk, this is one of the best ones you could have, how to invest that money. i think it is in their dna to be patient. i don't expect them to do anything rash. we just hope that something will come along that makes sense to deploy. katie: it is publicly the ultimate champagne problem, but even like you said, being patient at a moment like this, it is in their dna but as an
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investor coming back to that 10% position, are you getting antsy here? scott: we've held this stock for well over 10 years. we have kind of seen this evolution of the macro environment. you have to bear in mind that for berkshire hathaway and the pnc business which really drove our earnings this year, it has been out in the wilderness for over 10 years because of zero bound interest rates. we are really seeing the true earning power of the firm come back into play. i did well on the low rate environment and i think they will do well on the high rate environment. it really is an all season performer. as you saw on the earnings for the past year, we saw them show some weakness, ehe had some issues but the pnc side has kicked in and taken over. that is the beauty of what you are seeing in this allocation of
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businesses across the portfolio. katie: let's talk about the man himself. as we were discussing, 93 years old. how are you thinking about succession from the investor perspective? scott: this has been a long-standing topic. the important thing is, they've been very transparent. you know that he's got their investment boots. i think the important thing is showing that to the market. none of them are warren buffett but none of them need to be either. i think berkshire hathaway, whether you are talking about the leadership of warren buffett or the huge impact that charlie had, they have a very powerful culture that will outlive the
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tenure of the ceo and vice chairman. that is what is important. katie: scott, you are sticking with us. we want to take a look at what is moving underneath the hood of markets and we will do that with bailey lipschultz. we are talking about a lot of analysts when it comes to amer sports. bailey: the ipo is expiring, touting the upside from some of its offerings like solomon ski boots as well as wilson brands. the big thing though does come back to the expectation that china is going to be the driver. trading at the bottom of that targeted range that they did not price their ipl below, uncertainty around china evolution in china as a platform
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to grow their sales. katie: i feel like that is a risky proposition to build a lot of optimism around when it comes to china. bailey: when i talk to investors, china and the fact that arc'teryx is the brand. especially given the fact that a lot of people still from a macro perspective are uncertain on consumers in 2024. katie: key brand risk when it comes to amer sports. it is monday. let's talk about m&a. bailey: a little bit of deals. alcoa looking to buy their australian partner. alcoa shares down about 3%. quick reactions i was seeing from some of the analysts is that maybe the price is a touch rich but this could also be some of that potential merger arbitrage, on the potential deal
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given that this is not binding, so there are still a number of hurdles that have to be cleared but merger monday does seem to be at least across the pond playing out. katie: and you do have the likes of morgan stanley saying that other bidders are unlikely. it is interesting to see if and when this one closes. talk about moderna. this is a stock, an industry that you tend to follow. bailey: downgraded to a cell equivalent. uncertainty around the potential revenue growth outside of those covid shots. when you look at moderna, it became a household name in 2021 during the covid pandemic, right now, down 3%. the analysts saying the covid-19 vaccine transition will last throughout 2024 but what kind of happens after that is still a question. they call out some weakness in their rsv vaccine data which could put them secondary to some competitors. moderna still down north of 80% from that peak.
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katie: they reported last week and it was surprisingly good right? bailey: they seem to be taking market share from pfizer and talking of demand through the fourth quarter of 2023 and continuing to see growth and revenue in 2024 but still it is a question of if you're a vaccine player, what the future holds and it does seem like the questions around that rsv vaccine and the broader pipeline are shifting to recommend investors stay away. katie: shares off by about 3.4%. have emerging monday to you. coming up, we set the stage for the week and preview the earnings still yet to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: earnings season never truly ends and this one isn't over yet because a number of consumer names are set to report this week including macy's and lowe's. let's get more insight on what to expect with abigail doolittle. abigail: always an interesting thing in terms of it never ending. let's take a look at the earnings season for the fourth quarter thus far. what we are looking at is an impressive -- nearly 77%, something to keep in mind. from a trend standpoint, it is not great because in the third quarter, 81%, you can see a
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lower trend, matching what we see in some of 2022 and then back in 2021, we had 87% of companies beating, so companies are beating at the bottom line, not quite to the degree that they had been. most of these companies are reporting tomorrow. investors are looking for $1.99. sales may miss based on some of the data that has come out from the holiday season but more important, what will they say about the future and there has been lots about -- lots of talk about a possible buyout. lowe's up on the year. same-store sales may come and this has been a tough one for these diy stores. t.j. maxx will get an update on the treasure hunt and then autozone up 6.6% on the year. another impressive performance. will they make any headway into the commercial unit?
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the next week, looking ahead, take a look at one real outlier and that is target, over the last year, down about 9%. take a look at the sector. up about 30%. we have a 40% gap between target and these other indexes. katie: a lot to look for, from abigail doolittle. thank you for that break down. let's welcome back scott phillips, principal and cio at templeton and phillips capital management. we talk a lot about berkshire hathaway. i'm curious whether you are running into the -- running into the same sort of problems that warren buffett is having, when you look at this market, where are you finding value, where you finding good companies trading at reasonable valuations? scott: that's a great question but the opportunities are there. if you look outside of the u.s. international stocks, they are
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deeply discounted to u.s. large caps. even if that is not your perspective, to go overseas or outside the u.s., u.s. small caps we think are extremely attractive. if you thing about where we are in the u.s. small caps valuation perspective, we are basically a 60% discount to u.s. large caps and that is the widest discount we have seen going back to 1999. a generational type of valuation opportunity, but when you look at small caps, you have to come in with a few caveats. first of all, concerns or economic growth, small caps historically lead into recessions and you have to handle that perspective. the capitalization across the small-cap, a little bit different. they don't have the same levers to pull that large caps do in terms of financial fix ability,
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but if you're willing to do the work and take a closer look, we think you can find the types of companies that make good long-term investments. those that can find themselves cash flow and do have clean balance sheets. i think u.s. small caps are a very interesting opportunity right now and if you go back to that 1999 period, the last time they were this discounted and you just kind of take a look at what they did, performance wise after that, they annualized 720 basis points above the s&p 500 over the next 10 years. it is an opportunity that has our full attention and we been looking there for the past year or so. katie: small caps tend to lead into and out of recessions. where do you see the catalyst in this current economic cycle?
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scott: i think in terms of calling a recession, that is not our perspective. we are very bottom-up. i do think when we look at valuation, we want some evidence of that already priced into the shares. from our standpoint, whether it comes or goes, it is not really affect the names that we hold. if it does, we are looking to add small caps at lower valuations but also there is a good chance that the economy holds up and you can see a rotation into those names, just like we did during the kind of 2001-2003 period following the dot com bubble. katie: you've been looking into the small-cap space for about a year but when you are evaluating and doing the analysis on small-cap companies, how closely
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are you looking at the balance sheets, at the debt loads? these stats are dated but you look at the end of last year's second quarter, 10% of small-cap companies had weighted average maturities coming in two years or sooner. that doesn't sound like much. how worried are you about refinancing risks and other worries about the balance sheet? scott: we are very bottom-up in stocks specific. i would be very worried about those dynamics but our dna is to be contrarian. when you go back to the founding of our firm, john templeton ceded the firm, great uncle of mine, and one of the things that that forced us to think about was the balance sheet because he knew and other people who have been around, who can look past this period of low interest
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rates, the balance sheet matters a lot, so one of the caveats we've had to any investment we've employed the last four or five years is that the firm is self-reliant. it does not rely on the kindness of strangers. if you are willing to go and do the work, you can find companies that have the same qualities as large caps. they are just smaller, they are off the radar, they may not have analyst coverage. a good example of what we have found in the last year that meets this criteria is a company called coca-cola consolidated. this is the largest u.s. coca-cola lot but it has about one $8 billion market cap. it trades $32 million on an average daily basis. it has no analyst coverage. no one is paying attention to this company but when you look at the balance sheet, it is net debt free and to give you
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perspective, the s&p 500 trains -- trades at 14 times. even after its earnings success and the share price returned last year, it is still trading at approximately seven times with 8% free cash flow yield. we are pretty comfortable in that environment. if you look at the historical record, usually you would see a company with those valuations in that segment of the market and they wouldn't have growth. they have capital allocation issues but when you go through the track record, you can see that revenue is increased close to 17% on an annualized basis. cash flows have annualized 25%. it is just an example of a think when we go back to that original -- 60% discount is very extreme. if you're willing to do the
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work, you can still find bargains that check all the boxes. katie: there are bargains to be found. got to leave it there. really enjoyed this conversation. scott phillips, principal and ceo at templeton and phillips capital management. still ahead, we take a look at the companies making the most social buzz today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: farmers are protesting in brussels as e.u. agricultural ministers meet. the protesters are demanding more support from the bloc. it is the second major protest in recent weeks as farmers rally against bureaucratic hurdles, trade deals, and efforts to help ukraine sell its grain. for more on the agricultural industry, we are joined by patrick bowe, ceo of the andersons. let's start off with a geopolitical context. it has been two years since russia invaded ukraine. that war is still ongoing. how would you characterize the impact on the global grain
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market and the movement of those grains around the world? >> thanks for having me on. it has been a crazy few years. maybe to set the stage, before 2022 when ukraine was invaded, we had a tight global situation already in grain markets because the chinese were aggressively restocking food supplies. we did not have robust production in south america and north america. when the war broke out, things erupted and prices took off quite a bit at that time. things have changed again in the last couple of years. this past year now with more strong production out of the u.s. and in south america, brazil, argentina, and now ukraine ports have opened to get exports out again. katie: it is interesting when it comes to ukraine. we have seen unrest in other parts of the world. we opened up with farmers
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protesting in front of the e.u. headquarters. when you think about the past two years and what is going on in europe and that part of the world, what has the impact been for u.s. farmers in particular? >> u.s. farmers benefited from strong production in 20 and 2023 -- 2022 and high prices. prices have declined of late the last few months as we have restocked global food supplies. the challenge is a supply and demand shipping challenge. we had been working on the black sea issues coming out of ukraine. we have started to see ukraine ship at higher levels and had good growth of exports in december. now we have the red sea challenges with the houthi rebels attacking in that region and people going around the suez canal altogether as well as in the panama canal, a drought in
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panama with lesser shipments through the panama canal. we have a shipping challenge around the globe as far as exports. katie: absolutely. whether it is geopolitical or the weather, it feels like the supply chain can never truly get organized. you mentioned supply and demand. i want to talk about those dynamics when it comes to corn. u.s. farmers just harvested a record crop. truly astonishing. they do not want to sell because of the prices. how do you trade around that? >> we and ethanol producer in the united states. with north american customers, that business goes on regularly. the domestic flow of grains is steady in the united states and we are ac tat. the u.s. trade export on corn
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has declined with the brazilians taking a share of that market now. katie: what do you think will finally be the catalyst for them to sell meaningfully? is it getting to a certain price on corn or some other factor? >> we have seen a reset in prices the last couple of months. farmers at the time of harvest were seeing good crops. they will need to come to market with grains at lower levels than they benefited from the last two years. think it is inevitable we will see some selling in 2024. the good news is farmers have strong balance sheets after two years of strong income. katie: want to talk about prices. corn is hovering around $4 a bushel. how much lower could reasonably go? >> it is hard to tell. the key thing is u.s. production is in the bin now. we are looking at south american weather.
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we are getting ready to plant the second crop in brazil. the weather looks ok there right now. a year ago, it was quite dry. i think that is a big thing the market is looking for. there are also records shorts. a lot of speculative positions are big on the short side. if that were to cover, you get a bounce. katie: a few different dynamics going on. i want to talk about your plan specifically. you told bloomberg you were looking to buy ethanol plants that convert into green jet fuel. we have been talking about berkshire hathaway and the record amount of cash they had. you said the andersons has plenty of dry powder. what does the opportunity set look like? are you running into the same issue where there is not enough to buy? >> the last couple of years and our supply chain, we look at fertilizer, green, and the ethanol business. things were higher priced with
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cash available to invest. with higher interest rates, that feels like it is changing. we have three strong ethanol plants. we have the benefit of having the geology where we can sequester carbon at the site or nearby. marathon petroleum is a great partner in our business. we are excited to position ourselves with strong ethanol plants that have strong scores and then the growing aviation fuel market. that is where we would like to position ourselves. katie: who are you competing against when it comes to these targets? how has the competitive landscape changed? >> i don't know if there has been such an active market for people buying ethanol plants. it is a big industry. there are over 200 plants around the united states with many competitors. many are cooperatives. there are only a few companies
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in the space. as an industry, we are looking to get higher levels of inclusion and gasoline and models we would like to see as well as position ourselves for the ethanol to jet market in the future. katie: really quickly, i am curious when it comes to the fertilizer market specifically in the u.s. and canada, how are you thinking about 2024? >> the fertilizer markets have softened butter still stable. our supplies in north america are from canada and florida and not a lot coming from russia and parts of eastern europe. we have a more stable market. farmers will still be encouraged even with lower prices to fertilize strongly to get the production they need. katie: really enjoyed this conversation. got to leave it there. that is patrick bowe, the andersons president and ceo, talking to us about two years
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after russia invaded ukraine. we are still looking at the fallout from the grain markets there. let's get a check on the equity markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: stocks barely moving. let's look at what has been happening the last week to set the. stage for moves that may come. the s&p 500 up 1.7%. the consumer discretionary outperforming up 3.2%. the dollar breaking a seven-week winning streak last week following not by a large amount but still a trend shift. the two-year yield is popping higher at 472. on the next board, we will see the s&p 500 is not all about technology. in white, we are looking at the technology sector, the number of members at a 52-week high.
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that is 14%. overall, 19%. this chart is a bit of a divergence. you can see the last couple of months many technology members were above the 50-day moving average. right now, there is a little bit of strength as it continues to broaden out. speaking of nvidia, a lot of the technology talk is nvidia. cathie wood, her ark etf, both emc and nvidia no longer top 10 holdings. your to date you see underperformance for her etf relative to other ai related etf's. if we look at intuitive machines, last week, there was a massive rally. on the year, a massive rally, up one and 270% into today. over the last three days, a roller coaster, surging friday on the news it was the first private aircraft lander to land
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on the moon. and then today, data being reconsidered. it seems maybe it is on its side so this stock down a bit. but on the year, still higher. katie: roller coaster or rocketship, either way, the stock is down quite a bit. abigail doolittle, thank you. what will save commercial real estate? our next guest says it will take more than just lower interest rates page on fish joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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real estate roundtable chairman, also the founder, chairman, and ceo of suffolk, a building and related finance company. clearly, you are the authority on this topic. when it comes to the 250 member companies in the real estate roundtable, what would you say are the main concerns? what is the mood on the ground? john: thank you. it is a pleasure to be here. the mood on the ground is somber. i think people realize the impact commercial real estate has on the overall economy. when you peel that back and look at the industry as a whole, about 12% of gdp, employ about 15 million people, almost $600 billion in tax receipts go to cities and towns across north america. as this slog continues, the impact it is having on small cities and towns in america is devastating because they are not receiving the tax receipts they were planning on. it is hurting basic services.
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police, teachers, firemen. it is also hurting small businesses, pizza shops and coffee shops, across-the-board. the banking system is under tremendous stress. regional banks are the heart stones of any community in america. many maintain about 43% in commercial real estate. a lot of them are under distress right now. i heard a rumor almost 300 of them individually are in trouble. we have to be mindful of that overall. right now moving forward, we need to be very cautious of the impact commercial real estate has on the overall economy and work with this industry and our borrowers to make sure we have a soft landing as people have been talking about the last six months. katie: that is fascinating. as we talk about contagion from c.r.e., it is mostly through regional banks and their exposure and the effects on the economy from that. it sounds like you are saying
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there are more direct knock-on effects to the overall economy just from commercial real estate worries. it does not have to go through regional banks necessarily. john: right now, one of the biggest challenges is $1.5 trillion of debt is coming through in the next 18 months. that debt is coming due at 4% at the highest level. that is running in the 9% to 10% range. as a lack of liquidity, there is a serious crisis in the industry and confidence in the regional banking system. as an industry, we need to work together with the government to solve these problems. the government is the one to raise interest rates. the federal government is the one who sent workers home. we need the federal government to work with us on the interest rates. we also need the federal government to ask workers to come back to work.
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that is one of the reasons why some of our buildings in downtown urban areas are 30% vacant today. katie: the federal government or the federal reserve? do you see them as one and the same? john: they work hand-in-hand. i understand the separation between the federal government and the federal reserve. i think they are trying to work in an orchestrated way to accommodate a soft landing. but at the end of the day, the idea of having 475 basis points in 12 months is like pouring gasoline on a fire. i don't think they understood the unintended consequences of that action, coupled with the fact they have people working from home. as a result of their actions, we need the federal government to work with us to try to figure out a very soft landing for the industry as a whole. i have some ideas i can share with you. it is a very important conversation to be having
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because i know the federal reserve is contemplating what they do at the march meeting. i think they are looking at the data coming in. my concern with the data is a lot of it is old data. it is three or four months old. one could argue shelter has come down appreciably the last three or four months. some of the data they use may be obsolete. katie: that is a good point. monetary policy works with a lag. the policymakers are operating on a lag as well. you are also the former chairman of the board of the fed, the boston fed. talk to us about what more can be done beyond lowering interest rates at this point. john: my sense is back in june of 2023, the federal reserve, the fdic and oec issued forward guidance on working with credit worthy borrowers. i would encourage them to continue with that policy and reinforce that policy. it is important to the industry as a whole.
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credit worthy borrowers should not get hurt through the process. the federal government is the one that sent people home. the federal government is the one that should mandate people come back to work. all other countries, people are back to work except the united states. i am dumbfounded why we cannot get people back to work. it is proven we don't have much -- as much productivity at the end of the day. if you think about entitlements, i live in massachusetts. there was a referendum about density. the town worked against the referendum and did not want density. what is happening is you cannot support affordable housing because of the restrictions on entitlements. we need to soften those and we need more support from the government. the last thing is people don't realize they are adding 6% to
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11% construction costs, electrification, and other policies put forth. we need to slow it down. sustainability is important but with the financial situation, we need to think about it as an industry and country. go slow to go fast at the end of the day. katie: we have to leave it there. fascinating conversation. really appreciate your time. that is john fish, real estate roundtable chairman and suffolk founder, chairman, and ceo. tomorrow, we will be joined by the ceo of tectonic financial. breaking news, sweden has cleared the final obstacle to feigning nato membership. hungary's parliament just approved the vote 21 months after the country submitted its membership bids jointly with finland in response to russia's invasion of ukraine. much more coverage coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: we have a slew of economic data coming our way this week. mike michie -- mike mckee joins us to break it down. number one on your list has to bpce -- be pce. >> we get durable goods and personal income spending to tell us what the consumer is doing. it is the inflation numbers that matter to the fed. the big question is what happens with pce inflation. you go back a couple weeks, pci came in hotter than expected. some of the people analyzing this is warning us pce could rise as well. does the fed pushback farther
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the date when it starts to cut rates? katie: if it comes in hotter than expected, all of a sudden we are talking about rate hikes again. would you expect that conversation to follow? >> i don't think so. people talking was larry summers saying it and people picking up on what larry summers said. the biggest thing that has influence on pce is housing, as it does with pci, a little bit less on pce. we know housing has been slow to come down and did not come down in january. people are betting that to be a. also what i call the pogo problem in pce. we have met the enemy, and he is us. one of the issues in pce that is not in cpi is a big rise in portfolio management fees. so much stock has been turning over. they have been selling so much and doing so much on wall street that the fees are higher and that pushes up inflation. i don't think wall street is going to say that is a huge
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problem for them. katie: right. that is really funny. that is a detail i did miss. you and i were talking, if you thought just because it was the first friday of the month we would get jobs data, you would be wrong. >> we don't get it this friday. we get march 8, the following friday. this is something you can to use at the bar friday night as trivia. it comes three weeks after the survey of the week including the 12th of the month. three fridays later, february is a short month, it will push it back. it does not mean we don't get big news on friday because we have the government shutdown threat for friday. this will only be a partial one. the interesting thing, you look back. government shutdowns have no effect on the economy and wall street. you look at when we had government shutdowns, consumer confidence keeps going up. when we have government shutdowns, gdp does not change at all. spending does not change at all. what little is taken away from
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the economy by government employees not working is made up because they get paid when the shutdown is over. it should be a nonevent for wall street. the only issue is if it results in a downgrade in credit for the united states because of busines -- the dysfunction in washington. katie: plenty of noise to look forward to on the government shutdown. mike mckee, thank you so much. let's look at stocks hitting highs and lows. home depot hitting a 52-week high after being upgraded. the price target was raised by rbc, reporting earnings and sales that topped estimates for the quarter last week. we also have domino's pizza hitting highs after same-store sales growth beat expectations in the latest quarter. let's talk about lows. we do have hellofresh hitting fresh lows after ubs cut the price target on the meal kit maker, the analyst citing a challenging market. coming up, a flawless holdings
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>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. ♪ caroline: on caroline hyde in new york. ed: i'm ed ludlow in san francisco. this is bloomberg technology. caroline: full market coverage ahead as cathie wood cells nvidia by cutting tsmc stake. ed: the supreme court will hear challenges today on tw
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