annabelle: this is a straily there." we are counting down to asia's major trading options -- this is "daybreak: australia." we will be tracking down japanese equities closely because we are in the risk of the nikkei 225 crossing the 4000 other marks. haidi: bitcoin is also 10% or 11 cents away from an all-time record. we are watching the inflation number out of the u.s.. watching for fedspeak. more scrutiny over eco-data. that print is going to be critical. annabelle: absolutely. really that countdown to the core pce reading and the bumpy path to achieving the 2% inflation target, the focus of investors as well. but we have a focus on japan and south korea the start of trade. taking a look at the nikkei 225, pretty flat at the start.

worth noting, we had some equally data in the last 10 minutes or so and the numbers, month-on-month, industrial production there falling 7.5%. that was worse than what economists had been expecting. there could be -- the production -- hold, daihatsu over the course of january, suddenly being into those numbers, because we saw that fall in production. they could be perhaps a shorter-term lip. year-on-year actually the reading was better-than-expected. retail sales as well out, those numbers better than what economists had surveyed or what had been forecasted both year-on-year and the month-on-month readings good for a brighter but for the japanese yen, we continue to hold around the 150 mark. it has not budged for several days now. this is the state of play for japan. let's roll over and look at how korea is coming online today.

a bit of weakness again, but fairly muted. as well, the dynamic here is what we had in wall street overnight, more weakness creeping through, but that countdown to the core pce reading, we have seen those inflationary pressures picking up again in u.s. economy. haidi: yes, it's really out of the volatility going into this last leg of the cycle, right, what that holds true for so many central banks, many of them taking leadership from the said. take a look at the weakness across the australian session. 0.3% lower. some selling in financials, the mining sector isn't doing terribly well either. really tracking the decline we saw through the u.s. session. we are seeing kiwi stocks also a bit on the backside. look at the aussie dollar, pretty steady, 0.6495.

the dollar index is going sideways at the moment. a bit of weakness either kiwi dollar -- in the kiwi dollar. governor odor that the cash rate -- governor orr says the cash rate has to stay steady. they decided to hold. also watching oil markets in particular. a bit more downside there, just over $78 a barrel for new york food. for extending the decline from that we saw the build and inventory. nationwide u.s. stockpiles rising by 4.2 bloomberg was last week. also watching the expert mission of opec+ members to agree on output policy soon. and a lot of focus on the treasury market. looking at the question whether yields have peaked for the year. the final court ced data before

the march fomc meeting will be key. it is forecast for a slightly higher number month-on-month. do we finally see upper alignment of the rate markets with the fed dot plots, for pricing in potentially three rate cuts this year? let's get more insight on this with our chief graves, and mliv contributor -- chief rates correspondent and mliv contributor garth o'donnell. have we stabilized or peaked? garfield: i think rates could go higher this year. even if the pce data comes into the soft side, they are a whole range of other risks going forward, in particular if we got a somewhat soft pce print, we already have strong cpr and jobs data recently. said officials were emphasizing the idea that they need to see a series of data that can give them confidence that they are underway and they are not about to be too calendar-driven, they

will be data driven. with that, speaking of data, you have got pce and then we'll get the next jobs reading. we get a whole slew of purchasing manager indexes and similar gauges designed to take the temperature of various parts of the economy, both output and in particular what price pressures are doing. and you have fed chair [laughs] jay powell appearing before congress next week after which the fed goes into a quiet period before the next fed meeting. so all the way through their, especially because the fed meeting will be updated. lot, you have a range of -- updated dot plot, you have a range of risk factors that could provide the potential for a pop if we do get some data or some fedspeak that sounds the hawkish pivot we

also could get higher yields if once we're past the month-end rebalancing, equity start to shift higher. if there is strong for risk appetite, it also becomes hard to see a topping for yields yet. annabelle: equities pushing higher, garfield, given the moves we are seeing, we have seen it first off a bit in the last few sessions with but how durable and how strong do you think the rally has, or is it a fragile -- is it pretty fragile still? garfield: it is still pretty strong. to some extent it is -- i have often been skeptical of equity moves, but part of the difficulty of being skeptical about this one is that earnings have been strong, the economy has made strong. there were some wobbles within the gdp data that cannot

overnight, but consumer spending was better-than-expected. there is that. there is also the financial condition situation. interestingly i was looking at goldman sachs has indexes on financial conditions for europe and for the u.s.. u.s. financial conditions are somewhat loose, whereas europe's are fairly tight, even though the ecb's cash rate is nowhere near as high as the fed's. so you have a range of factors that are saying that there is no smoking gun for equities to turn around and move lower. they are definitely becoming more vulnerable, more exposed. there is talk of the equity premiums, equity risk premium becoming too compressed. so with all of that, you have to be apprehensive. that you might mistime

things. all the same, equities look, at the moment, like they have the momentum. and so far in the last few months, momentum has been a winning strategy especially in japan, but not only in japan. so there is a good chance equities will keep moving higher unless we get the sort of serious set of bad data that would mean the fed is going to cut so never than later. annabelle: we have seen some momentum and a bit of a rally in bitcoin. we have been discussing this morning the reasons for that. supply and demand dynamics, leverage creeping back into the sector. but i am curious, bitcoin and crypto overall makeup such a small percentage of institutional investments. do you think we are likely to see any sort of pivot or change here? garfield: i actually think bitcoin's continuing decline,

that underscores the idea that risk appetite momentum is still fairly strong. i think some of what is going on in the last couple of days is a rebalancing very strong month of equities, very weak month for bonds, so you have some of those flows shifting around from that you also have the lack of immediate equity triggers. meantime, bitcoin has the supply and demand dynamics, it just fits that general zeitgeist of things are doing well. doing better-than-expected. if you remember, part of the reason -- when we entered this year, bonds have done badly because we entered the year with people saying the fed was going to cut six or seven times this year. that underscored a lot of economic risks because the fed had hiked rates so much and have them so high. what do you know, the economy has done just fine so far, with yields at those levels -- with rates at those levels, so i

think this is something of a relief rally for risk assets, because the economy is remaining strong. annabelle: garfield, bloomberg's chief rates correspondent and embed contributor garfield reynolds there. . you can get more on the day's trading on our mliv blog, on bloomberg at mliv . you can get a market rundown in one click, and there is commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors, so you can find out what is affecting your investments right now. up next, we speak first with the rb of the governor about why he is softening threats of further rate hikes this year, and what he thinks they might start cutting. adrian orr joins us live, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

thanks to avalara, we can calculate

sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh

annabelle: we are just 15 minutes into the session so far, for japan and korea. this board puts it in perspective. a lot of red across the screen. the declines go far are still fairly rangebound but we are seeing weakness creeping through. the focus really is coming down to the fed's preferred inflation gauge that is due thursday and that's going to help of course identify the path forward for interest rates given we have seen some signals creeping into the market of more resurgent inflation. just about 15 minutes into the session, weakness for the nikkei the kospi -- for the nikkei and the kospi. what else we are tracking is

what is happening in the cryptos face permit bitcoin has been one of the big movers over the past few days and crypto stocks generally have been one of the sectors to watch. again, it's the focus on the side and of other central banks, including the rbnz. haidi: yes, it was a bit of a surprise i think for some marketwatchers yesterday that they did hold, keeping rates unchanged. softening the threat of a further hike also. the policy statement remaining somewhat hawkish, but much less so than investors had been looking for. joining us out of wellington is the rbnz governor, adrian orr. always a pleasure to have you here on bloomberg. people were surprised because there was speculation there could be another hike. you said it had been discussed. talk us through the reasoning as to why you didn't go yesterday. governor orr: the data, i think, is really the story. we have been very pleased with

the last 18 months or so, the economy has panned out broadly as anticipated and we have not had to change our economic productions or views much at all, to be honest. but markets -- the challenge for us, we had between november and our monetary policy statement yesterday, a lot of confirmation that inflation is continuing to decline. inflation expectations are better anchored and we are achieving our targets with pretty minimum disruption to the broader labor markets. we retain a restrictive position. but at the moment, we have confidence that patience will see us through. haidi: was there a sense that it would have been also risky to raise rates as the economy is

slowing, or does that not weighing the reasoning as much as a single mandate, and is there a sense.com april, do you think the -- do you think morales to be done to look at a long-term neutral rate to not be running while still standing still, in a sense? governor orr: with the official cash rate at 5.5%, we believe that is well above any estimate of the neutral rate. we are unambiguously in a restrictive monetary position. yes, there is always a risk of overdoing it. this is why patience is critical. when you are sitting in a position where you are confident and being restrictive and confident the economy and the monetary policy transmission is working as anticipated, then have patience and that is what

we are perfecting. last november, inflation was still printing higher, expectations were higher. our projections were the same, but it is much nicer to have more data and more confirmation and so that's what we reflected. our forward outlook is balanced the risks, around inflation. what has not been balanced is our ability to them upside inflation surprises. that is where the asymmetry is. at 4.7 percent, aiming for 2%, you don't want upside surprises. haidi: patience is the mantra, i am getting. that is maybe one of the things that the markets and investors are not terribly good at. he even said this morning that you see the cash rate staying at 5.5% through the course of this year. the markets are still pricing in two rate cuts.

do you want to give a message to investors, to the markets? governor orr: you know, be careful. the interest rate's at a restrictive level. engage with the brain before you overindulge in debt. if you are holding that debt with a view that interest rates have to go lower, that is your risk, that is not our risk. our risk is to make sure that inflation hits its target. annabelle: what is the risk though you are seeing of holding rates for perhaps too long? governor orr: at this point, low. in the sense that the economy is strong. we are talking about economic growth picking up from here over the calendar year. we are talking about employment growth remaining strong. we do see unemployment rising somewhat, but other than that,

household income has been very strong. there is a significant government investment need. there is a lot of drivers of economic activity and wages trying to moderate the demand-side -- and we are just trying to moderate the demand-side to match the supply capacity. at the moment, the risks are balanced. annabelle: one of the factors that have played into the supply demand dynamics has been immigration, we have seen a big spike in migration into new zealand permit to look at that more from the re-inflationary effect from that channel, or was it more the disinflationary effect? governor orr: great question. not all migrants are the same and not all migration carried is the same. we had a 2% increase in our population similar to a study and canada.

it arrived at a time when there was enormous vacancies people just couldn't find labor. so it has been a net positive on the supply capacity for the country, the potential growth rate, and at the same time, it has moderated wage demands. in that sense, it has been useful for monetary policy, relieving some of the pressure. of course, there are now more people in the country and they want dwelling and they will be spending. so it is holding up at some degree, total spending in the country. per capita spending is falling, but aggregate spending has been held up by the larger population. the real pressure we see is actually in the dwelling market, not house prices, but rentals, places to live. we are still in that really tough position from it we just need more homes and houses. more dwelling. haidi: haidi: do you think that

rapid upswing in migration could fade but he quickly? does that take the pressure off rentals? governor orr: you know, we just don't try to predict. we make basic assumptions for immigration, back to some long-term normal standard. why? because no one controls net migration. people can come and go as they like netizens. i think the pressure will remain on rent for quite some time. building activities actually slowing at record levels at a time when the population has increased. so that rental challenge will be there, that rental price challenge, for some time to come. haidi: the drop in inflation has been pretty rapid, 4.7% at the end of last year to 2.5% at the end of this year, do you

continue to have confidence that the last leg of this cycle will be quite as effective in terms of monetary policy settings? there is concerns about the stickiness of inflation, then you overlay some of the geopolitical and potential obliging issues we might encounter this year. 's that our risk for the rbnz? governor orr: it is a risk. i don't think it's a new or different risks, however, and we have been doing a lot of work to see if the monetary transmission mechanism has changed at all, how impactful our interest rates on that domestic homegrown insulation. all of our work says it is business as usual. we just have to be patient. of course you mentioned the potential supply-side or relative price risks, they are always going to exist. for example, we are talking about being inside the inflation target band in the second half of this year, below 3%, and then at 2% of the same time the

following year, what is holding this up? we have had to make assumptions around relative price pressures, including shipping costs as an example. but the quarrel of monetary policy is working, we have always been battered by various price shocks. annabelle: i think that goes back to your point about the ability two weather upside surprises to inflation. the risk of those really comes down to new zealand being a major commodity exporter. but what challenges are you most concerned by presently? governor orr: domestically, i think the challenge is, i don't want to sound too benign, but the risks are pretty well understood. nothing is kind of on the horizon. if anything they are more global , the geopolitical risks, the challenge to trade, accustomed to trade. china demand, you know, the main

risks were talked about, some to the upside and some to the downside. trade we have done reasonably well over the last few months. the export sector is feeling a little bit better about things. so really if we can ride out the next 12 months, it's a pretty positive environment. annabelle: the other thing that could perhaps become an inflation risk comes from the weak currency and the new zealand dollar is weaker at the moment. whether that is inflationary depends on what that weaker exchange rate is reflecting. do you think the current levels of the kiwi dollar can be explained? governor orr: yes, it's a great way you phrased it. we don't have any unnecessary for large, unexplained components to our trade-weighted

exchange rate and likewise relative crosses. they have been reflecting many of the standard ways you might try to model a fair value for an exchange rate within the zone of confidence around that. the currency markets, touch wood, have been very well behaved over recent times, so, you say we are kind of weak. yes, we are lower than we just were permitted is not necessarily weakness reflecting a lot of economic fundamentals. haidi: there seems to be perhaps more preparedness across other major central banks, the fed has started talking about easing, perhaps the rba. despite being one of the first at the start of the cycle, could the rbnz be one of the last was mike are you comfortable with that in terms of that initially then giving some strength to the currency and reducing the risk of inflation? governor orr: yes.

all i can really say is the data will tell. you have to play the hand in front of us. we are incredibly transparent. we put that projection out. we are subject to no future economic shocks, subject to the economy behaving broadly as expected. we do have an e-zine of interest rates -- easing of interest rates, just not anytime soon. it is a few quarters away. when we get more comfortable about easing is when inflation is a lot closer to the target. we are getting there, but we not there yet. haidi: you have talked a bit about china and the slowdown. i wonder, we have gotten used to an environment where china is seeing such extraordinary levels of growth. do you think trading partners like new zealand, very externally-exposed

economies, have adequately prepared for a future where we see a very structurally different rate of growth for china? governor orr: i would say, no. i don't mean to sound controversial or panicked. diversification of trade is critical. new zealand went from being very concentrated to europe and the u.k., to now being constituted asia and china. we are more diversified, considerably more, but we still have those concentration components. . more importantly, the value-add is critical. the more effect you have a system that you can manage these different shifts or crosses, really continuously trying to

haidi: we have breaking news

crossing the bloomberg when it comes to australian retail sales numbers. we see our rise of 1%. the estimate was an increase of 1.5%. this as we get data for fourth-quarter business investment seeing a rise of 10th of a percent, better-than-expected, and investments across capex. we are seeing declines across equipment and machinery investment, down zero .1% quarter on quarter than. in terms of the plan spend, $145 billion roughly, 2024-2025 estimate by australian firms. this as we continue to see some potential indications that really some weakness across the last quarter of the year. we heard from the australian treasurer not ruling out the

economy contracted in the final months of 2023, saying the rate increase like likely weighed on growth. we have been speaking to of course the rbnz governor and at this point in the psychotherapist so much scrutiny on each data point and how much that contributes to market expectations of easing to come. rate that's right -- annabelle: that's right. it seems like more action from here if not a cut is very much under the microscope here but taking a look at one of the stocks just out of trading, this is a japanese lender, and that stock is surging, up more than 15%. we have city index, a firm link to an activist investor in japan has disclosed taking a holding or stake in the company, and so essentially what we are hearing about that stake, we are hearing

from city index that they will be with the 5.4% stake, perhaps pulling forward -- putting forward some proposals as well. it is a japanese lender. its stock has really plunged over the past few weeks and what has been really behind that has been the bank saying it expects to host a net loss for the fiscal year and that has given pretty much some bets on u.s. commercial property that turned sour so yes, up 15%, but put it in context as it has rapidly dropped over the past few weeks. let's shift to another data set, india's fourth-quarter gdp numbers. 6.6 percent growth expected from a year earlier. it remains the world's fastest expanding major economy. government spending and private investment have moderated ahead of this year's elections.

with this now is the executive director and senior economist at dbs. start off with what you are expecting for this print. radhka: yes. they are expected to be strong, about 6.8%. three quarters on average is above 7%, so certainly more pluses and minuses in the data we expect later today. we think consumption will be doing better. it would mean rural india if you look at those numbers, and the festivities as well and a quarter, so we think that would have provided some support to consumption. the biggest investment growth by the government, even investment showed construction for example inventories are low, so there

too you are seeing buoyancy, in the private sector is participating in the sectors where public investments going, roadways, metals, some of the sectors seeing investment. certainly slower global growth is a risk but for india, you know, the weakness in goods and the deficit is offset by what is happening on the surface front providing support to the external trade. so quite strong when you talk about the first three quarters of the fiscal year 2024 that we are in currently. annabelle: how sustainable do you think that is? we spoke to so many people about india being a great structural growth story now. radhka: there are many actors that are well placed into the

new fiscal year. we have elections coming up in april and may, and beyond that, the private sector and particular is well-placed, under leveraged. you have seen capital markets doing well, so they are able to raise the capital they require and are able to fund some of the capex, and consumption, some turnaround in the labor participation rate and jobs in general doing better. also structurally, i think it is quite an investment-driven growth push we have seen last year and we expect that to continue in the year ahead as well. no, probably the elections, and after the elections it will pick up. and overall like i mentioned, the trade mixes providing a buffer against what's happening globally. risks of course, should watch out for, and they are more

exogenous, in our view. one is how global growth goes. the second is the commodity price cycle. if that turns detrimental, that will impact india's external balances, for example, but insofar as the domestic economy is concerned, we don't think the -- do think the consumption pushes providing a buffer to the economy in an environment where you are seeing slowdown risks in the region, or at least in these countries. haidi: with those slowdown risks, could the rdi afford to be -- rbi afford to be less hawkish? the numbers say the actual levels of inflation could be .5% lower than the headline number officially released. is there a sense that they are being too cautious here? radhka: um, i guess you are referring to the recent

expenditure, you know, consumption expenditures survey released after a decade. but that showed us his patterns have changed insofar as how households are spending. they used to spend more on food addicted back, but they're doing less now. they are spending more on non-foods, conveyance, rent, depending urban or rural india, or when you see those consumption patterns change, i think one is drawing the conclusion that those rates are reflected in the current basket and inflation would be trending lower. though i don't think that it will happen yet, the subsequent rounds for the survey to happen, but certainly extending consumption patterns suggest lower inflation. going back to the question of what that means for the rbi they have a goldilocks backdrop with growth at about 7% the year we

are going into inflation for .5% still above target -- 4.5% still above target in their commentary has been more hawkish. against this backdrop it does not suggest a dovish pivot is imminent so that is why after their commentary and the rate cut expectations being reduced we don't expect rate cuts before the quarter of this calendar year so certainly expecting them to be you know, to wait to see what the fed is doing and wait to see the domestic inflation story play out. haidi: is that a potential risk? what are the risks do you see for the second half? there is a lot of geopolitical risks this year, for sure. radhka: him holding rates -- and him holding rates higher for longer certainly keeps financial conditions quite type, but at

this juncture, you know like i mentioned, most of the, you know, it paid back some of the debt instead of putting on more debt so, the are better from that perspective so certainly higher rates for longer, and i think most of the risks could be external for the second half of the year. you know the middle east tensions are very important, especially for oil. we have seen the red attacks on commercial liners, which is slowing down or adding costs to the community, so i would rank it such that the global growth slowdown in the commodity cycle are the two big risks for the economy in the second half of the year, and domestically of course will be how inflation plays out, because it is quite important, part of the basket is prone to what is happening. haidi: always great to chat with you. the executive director and

senior economist at dbs. breaking news on donald trump. an illinois judge has removed donald trump from the ballot according to the insurrectionist ban. this is a judge in illinois that has removed president trump from the states ballot based on the 14th amendment so-called insurrectionist ban. that comes as part of a similar anti-trump challenge the state of colorado pending before the u.s. supreme court, and that is widely expected to reject arguments that trump is barred from office. cook county circuit judge tracy porter heavy relied on the prior finding by the colorado supreme court, calling that compelling, realizing the magnitude of the decision, the impact on the upcoming primary illinois elections, they have decided to remove donald trump from the ballot for the general primary

election to take place on march 19 this year. so that is one month after the anti-trump challenge was dismissed, a unanimous and bipartisan vote by the election board, because it said it did not have jurisdiction to review the matter. this now, i believe, makes illinois the third state where trump has been booted from the outlet after colorado, but those decisions were pause pending the appeal of the colorado case to the supreme court. we are also seeing the supreme court will weigh his bid for immunity from criminal prosecution as well. we both talk more on trade next. we are at the ministerial conference in abu dhabi. you can catch our conversation with the u.s. trade representative katherine tai. more to come on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

rate taking a look at how crypto stocks are faring, another session of gains across the board. annabelle: you can see that coin at the bottom of your screen but above that $60,000 mark at a two

-year high. nearly 64,000, but a lot of different factors playing into bed in terms of spot bitcoin etf's, demand/supply dynamics, leverage as well. let's get more with our reporter from singapore. perhaps you are not quite ready for it yet but i will continue to talk about what we are seeing, supply/demand and spot bitcoin etfs launched in january. you are around the six-week mark of those being live, and we have seen significant investor flows coming into those really. it has driven up the demand for bitcoins. that is not being met with the supply coming through from the minors, so that is one of the things and as i said leverage is also another factor but let's get more because i think our reporter is ready to join us from singapore. i did not get too much into the supply demand.

what are we seeing with the bitcoin minors. in the issue more tokens? suva: exactly. it is a busy day for all of us and thank you for having me here. actually it is as you rightly said a big supply/demand mismatch where we're seeing spot demand coming from the etf, the exchange traded fund spot bitcoin, and mostly this is happening in the u.s. hours because the trading is happening in u.s. hours, etf's are in the u.s., so we're seeing a large amount of demand for the u.s. etf fund from the u.s. bap is skewing the supply/demand equation for bitcoin -- that is skewing the supply/demand equation for bitcoin. remember, the having is potentially -- halfin is potentiallyg reducing it because the supply is fixed and that is creating fomo, what if i don't

get bitcoin at this price later, so that is adding to demand for this, the largest cryptocurrency we have, and that is again, leading to this frenzy in the market, i can see that, but however, i also have to add, that the leverage long positions have significantly gone up in the market. which means that there could be a pullback, a technical pullback, even if that is short-lived, because again, as we have seen, the demand might continue to go but we could see some pullback happening given the long positions in the funding rates for these positions going up significantly. haidi: what are we seeing in terms of volumes of bitcoin leverage and what does that tell us about this rally? suva: the volumes in the

leverage of the business is going up very much. yesterday it was the funding rates were at a record high and we were seeing volumes going up, mostly in the u.s. hours, which is showing that rally might sustain going ahead, but she was see you know, in the asian hours, we can see some kind of pullback because as i said the rally is driven from the etf's in the u.s. so were seeing some kind of pairing, some kind of you know sober movement as we speak in the asia hours, but this could be again, a temporary factor given the traders are really really looking at the record high levels which is the next big level we are watching for as well, which could be a big domino effect if that gets breached in the next few days. rate i'm sure you have a busy

few days ahead tracking this. annabelle: that was our asia finance reporter in singapore. let's shift to hong kong because the real estate sector facing an uphill battle and after the governments most forceful attempt yet to revive the market. authorities have eased homebuying levies and mortgage restrictions as part of measures to revive the financial hub. our hong kong real estate reporter joins us. we were just discussing it that this is something that to people by surprise yesterday, the move. >> yeah, it's better than people expected because all these measures are removed, so in the past foreign buyers have to pay a combined 15% tax on transactions and homeowners have to pay 77.5%, sorry, so now everyone pays the same tax of 4.25%, and the special duty

imposed on sellers to sell their properties within two years of purchase, it is also scrap so everyone is free to sell the properties anytime they want. rate what is the impact on home prices this year? shawna: so, i think most analysts, they are expecting prices to stay flat or even drop by slow single digits, so a lot of that will hinge on the rate cuts. so if we see great scout lower this year, people will find it more affordable to buy homes in hong kong. annabelle: that was our hong kong real estate reporter there. staying in hong kong, bloomberg intelligence eased tourism and retail gain slowing after the first quarter this year. let's get more from cap friendly -- catherine lim.

should we be excited about the prospects after these initiatives being announced? catherine: right. it is great to see the government putting in money to prop up activities for tourists such as monthly fireworks and drone shows, but really i don't think it will be quite enough to bring numbers up significantly, particular do bear in mind we are still far off from where tourism levels were back in 2018 to 2019 before the protests happened and we ended at 49% of those levels. i think it will go up to about 58%, factoring in a 29% year on year growth in tourism numbers. i think that is going to be just about it based on what we saw yesterday from measures taken by the government. fingers crossed on those.

[laughter] haidi: given hong kong's retail landscape has relied so heavily on chinese tourism, especially for the luxury segment, how is likely to play out in retail sales then? catherine: you know what, it is interesting we have recently started seeing some of the luxury brand stores, you know, popping up again in hong kong, notwithstanding, we still have a few more coming up, and it will be interesting to see how they manage some of the marketing activities, particularly since they have raised prices in greater china in the last six months itself. so do we need more campaigns to bring out some of the messages or the stories behind the brand? i think that will be a draw for the chinese shoppers, particularly since there are still price

differences between luxury goods selling in china as well as hong kong. hong kong obviously being cheaper given the absence of taxes, so i think the luxury guys will still be doing well in hong kong. bear in mind though we are seeing moderation in terms of tourism numbers increased, so the magnitude of the increase may be as significant what we have seen in 2023. rate that was our senior asia analyst -- annabelle: that was our senior analyst for asia pacific consumer for bloomberg intelligence. you can get an insiders guide to the money and the people shaking up the finance at our hong kong addition newsletter every thursday via bloomberg.com/newsletters. we will have more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

( ♪♪ ) -awww. -awww. -awww. -nope. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, ow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

annabelle: taking a look at the corporate stories this morning. nvidia insiders sold about $18 million of stock after it went to a fresh record. according to the washington surface insiders unloaded the most stock in a month since september. nvidia's latest results top elevated expectations, delivering another strong revenue forecast.

microsoft is investigating reports that its copilot chatbot is generating responses that users are crawling disturbing and harmful. it was developed as a way to weave ai into products and services. some users have deliberately tried to feel it into the responses. electronic arts cutting 5% of the work force or 670 people. it cites shifting an consumer or customer needs and refocusing the company. it is stopping development on an undisclosed number of games. that is it from "daybreak asia." our market coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trading hong kong, shanghai, and ♪henzhen.