♪ >> look at bloomberg markets. taking a look at stocks under pressure. mixed economic data in the run-up to jay powell testimony to congress over the next couple of days. a lot in play, let's take a look at the markets here. a lot of red on the screen. s&p 500 broken down about a 10th of 1% on the day. the nasdaq 100 all of session lows but close to them. down about 1.5% on the day so far. the semiconductor index, about 1.7%, also down on the day. a breath of relief year after

hitting all-time highs for these indexes. the two yields breaking down below 4.60, well below. about a three basis point move but remember we were still above 4.60 just yesterday. weaker dana driving those higher, the testimony to congress. the u.s. dollar breathing a sigh of relief after reaching a record on the day here. still up 7/10 of 1% off the highs of the day but still getting event. bitcoin is getting off of record highs. it did indeed touch that record but has now fallen very meaningfully to that $64,000 level, down now about 4.6%. we are talking about apple continuing its decline helping to lead a lot of those tech heavyweights stocks. that decline after apple sales in china fell by a surprising 24% of the first six weeks of the year and on the earnings front also, some green on the

screen, target of more than 11% jumping after work quarter profit estimates and the retailer continues improvement in inventory management. and in finance, new york community bank rebounding after steep losses this week following a credit downgrade from fitch. remember we are seeing the stock still down about 11%. and that regional bank stock move brings us to today's big take because the stock has fallen by more than 70% just this year and the story of how it happened includes missed signs, new laws, changing regulators and a lot of names underneath the surface unseen before. this begs the question have so much went unseen. >> first of all, we've worked together for so long, i think this may be the first time you and i have been on tv together one on one. new york immunity bank is a long and interesting story and it would be so nice to be able to tell you that there is one guy

who made one mistake and it all comes down to that but really it is kind of a detail of three different buckets. on the one hand, classic ambition, the theme you and i love to write about when it comes to wall street. you had a small banker wanting to get big and then a big bank that became the big and then you have real estate, the story of affordable housing, a story that actually impacts nyc be in a really big way. and then another classic theme, regulators and regulation and how the watchdogs who are in some ways in charge of these banks, how laws and the cast of characters, others shifts really impact banks and impacts the world. >> one thing that everyone saw that new york community bank is just how much it grew over 18 months, including through acquisitions that the regulars approved. what rolled did the acquisitions play in the most recent set of troubles? >> i want to give a shout out to wit businessweek story that

might be like 25 years old. in this piece, that the then-ceo brags that in three years, they've grown from $2 billion, nothing, to $20 billion. and then it just gets bigger and bigger and bigger and it is not a coincidence. they had a game plan of swallowing rival banks and taking mom-and-pop deposits and loaning it to manhattan real estate. and there was a moment that it seems that regulators may not have approved of them getting bigger. they definitely seem to have faced some kind of regulatory hurdle and emerges that they were planning on, i think this was like 2012, 2013, didn't go through. you can see that they were frustrated, they wanted to keep getting bigger and they see flagstar. flagstar is a big mortgage servicer. originally it was going to be the fbi see that had to approve the merger but exchanged, the

rules are finagle. instead of being a bank regulated by new york state, they say we are going to have a national charter. all of a sudden it is the occ that gets to approve that. the occ does approve and when they cross $100 billion in assets, all of the sudden they got a lot more rules to deal with and under the curtains, they did not exactly measure up to their new peers. >> we only have about 30 seconds left or so. what do we know about the person who is now going to be leaving the bank? >> she is going to have a lot of response ability on his shoulders. he was the head of flagstar then came in at the nonexecutive chairman and now he is ceo. >> a former bank examiner. >> great call. i spoke with a shareholder who said i am glad he is at the wheel that he is going to have to deal with suspicions about the bank credit. it has been downgraded several times. he is going to have to deal with

suspicious shareholders who are worried about the banks controls. is this a bank that is on top of its risks? he is going to have to face questions about real estate holdings, will the bank have to set aside even more money to cover potential he souring loans? there are a lot of question marks hovering over it right now. >> we are going to move to discuss the state of the credit and loan markets with a perfect person here, scott sanborn really moving from the commercial real estate markets to the consumer market. great day to talk about the consumer with you. thank you for joining us. you seem consumer credit just soaring past $1 trillion in the united states alone. from where you said, -- from where you sit, is that growth and credit sustainable? >> it is certainly sending a message about the consumer who has had to deal with the 80's and part of the way they've dealt with that is by increasing the amount of debt specifically on credit cards.

the problem with it is that we are now at a place where nearly half of all americans are carrying credit card debt, the balances have grown just in the last couple years 10%, and the rates they are paying are the highest they have ever been since the federal reserve started measuring this back in 1994. the average rate paid on cards is now over 22%. so just to have the same balance they had a few years ago, minimum payments are going way up. the >> note that you've given me is that margins it a record in 2023. apr on credit cards nearly double into 22.8% from 12 point 9% in 2013. do americans largely know the map here behind higher interest rates and how much that could burn into their pockets at the end of the day? i'm wondering at what point there is a wake-up call. >> it's a great question and the

answer is unfortunately, no they don't. half of all americans do not know the apr on their cards. that is not how they shop. they shop for the awards -- rewards and the affinity programs. the problem is if you don't pay it off, which is a mention, half of all americans aren't, you have a loan and it is a really, really lousy loan. >> do you really think that americans are working to shore up their credit situation right now? do you see people really paying down debt to the point that they can get out of what often becomes a vicious cycle of interest payments? >> we are seeing a change in consumer behavior. when inflation first hit, consumers were caught off guard. we saw that in her behavior. they literally reliving the same life they had been living but all of a sudden everything cost more. paying more for groceries than they paid in 30 years, rent is going up. so it would be the same routine of shopping at the same store and eating at the same

restaurant and all of a sudden they were realizing they didn't have any money in their account so we have seen people adjust their behavior, but 70% of americans are reporting that they are cutting back on their spending, and what we are trying to get out there is you can cut back on your spending but if you have a credit card b you are maintaining, there is a way to pay that off by taking out a paid personal loan. the rates that we are offering consumers are more like 14% vs. 23% for cards. we are doing our part to get the measures out there. a lot of people put it into one, simple monthly bill because a lot of americans have four or more credit cards they are managing. >> a lot of data showing delinquencies rising to pre-covid levels once again. what is the picture look like moving forward to that? >> it's true. we saw a really benign period post-pandemic were people were

not eating out, not traveling. there was government stimulus and they actually did the right thing, they paid off a lot of that debt. but when the economy opened up and people started spending again and some would say revenge spending and inflation started kicking in, things went the other way. what you really saw was people getting caught off guard. inflation affects everybody. unemployment which is usually a driver credit card delinquencies, that affects 1% or 2% of the population. so what we see it is a real rate of change through 2022, but things are stabilizing now and they are normalizing. i would call credit performance or delinquency about, they are not up to alarming levels. face have stabilized at a higher level than they were coming out of covid, but things appeared to

be normalizing now. how do you think about your own credit quality year? when people were worried about the state of a potential recession last year you did see your stock at lending club take a hit. when do you think investors will start to get more excited about the state of the consumer and kinda start to shake off those risks tied to a potential recession and what that could mean for a consumer? >> there's been a lot of concern understandably about the outlook for the consumer. the most forecast recession that hesitates, and that has impacted a lot of consumer finance companies. we just put out our last earnings call going out over the last 12 quarters. a look back over the past three years showing our delinquency performance and what you can see is, one, it stabilized and two,

r delinquencies are on average about 40% below. so we feel really good about the quality of the credit that we are giving and the opportunity in front of us, the fact that there one point $3 trillion in credit card debt, that is our core market, the largest it has ever been, and that spread between the rates that the cards are charging and what we offer has never been larger. at this point as the consensus for a soft landing becomes a little bit higher in the state of the consumer becomes more clear, we are excited to go after that. >> scott, thank you so much for joining this. coming up next we're going to talk about the entertainment industry. the ceo of vivid seats with a disappointing forecast. that is up next. this is bloomberg.

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shelley bassett: this is --sonali basak: this is bloomberg markets. a 2024 forecast did disappoint some investors. this is despite strong fourth-quarter revenue the top analyst estimates. we are going to discuss this with stan. stan, why do you think that your forecast is lighter than what investors are expecting, is this kind of a reflection year of this booming rebound of the entertainment world? >> thanks for having me. when we look at outperformance that we deliver last year, really strong year for the company and certainly reported our results. for the full year, 23% growth on

the top line, 25% of lending at 142 million. we told everybody we continue to be really excited about the space and perhaps more importantly really excited about the opportunity to extend the platform and the benefits we are seeing into the international markets and therefore incremental investment into the international markets to take advantage of that opportunity i point out is still yielding out significant double-digit growth on the top and bottom with the reflected investments being a 16% year-over-year growth to put us at 165. >> how do you see things moving forward? if this more competition you are facing when it comes to events, or is this a consumer that is slowing down? >> i think what we've continued to see is really strong, secular tailwinds in the category where consumers continue to prioritize to spend on experiential events.

certainly when we look at app platform, our investments in the space, we see great behavior from consumers, we see stickiness within our product. we are one of the only ones out there with an industry-leading loyalty program and as we were done today, since we launched that program we've mixed 1300 basis points into repeat orders where our repeat orders were almost at 60% now. i would remind everyone that our repeat orders stick the platform and are significant and more profitable which allows us to invest in capabilities and the opportunity to cap new markets as well. >> we are after the super bowl now. what are the sporting events that you would be going after that could yield the most results for you? deep expect big money into other areas? >> i think we are excited about the entirety of the space. certainly sports and last year we made two acquisitions, the most recent of which was the leading authority in las vegas and we see a lot of tailwinds in

particular in that market. the super bowl just having been in las vegas, f1 had its inaugural year last year, first of a 10 year deal, and the sphere. across the spectrum, sports concert theater, we continue to be really excited about that trend here in north america and increasingly so as we see those experiential and consumer preferences scale globally as well. >> your company that went public a number of years ago, how do you think that your light and public markets is going to play out? your stock did hit a record low today, you had some significant backers in the private equity world. how do you expect ownership to change in the next couple of years? >> i really focus on the result of the execution that companies can continue to deliver. i think we got a wonderful team, great long-term investors in the stock that continue to yield the

performance that we seen. as a public company that came out in october of 2021, we certainly beat eric -- our guidance. we talked about beating consensus on the top and bottom in double digits against a scaled marketplace. if we look at our disclosures, we are closer to $2 billion and our guidance for 2024, 160 $5 million adjusted. when you look at the core performance any financial results we are delivering, i think we over the decided about -- excited about delivering all that. we certainly think we are undervalued and i think proved to the putting -- pudding here

today, we are going to go out with one million share purchase authorization as well. certainly we see a strong dispersion and distraction between the share price and the company performance. >> thank you for your time, we have to leave it there. that is vividseats ceo. up next, hedge fund managers are taking up after a two-year drop. we look at that story next. stay with us.

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you've got more options than you know. book now. ♪ >> this is bloomberg markets, and it is time now for my favorite needs, the wall street eat where we are looking at was buzzing on wall street and the world of banking and finance and today we are looking at the rise in hedge fund startups.

if you think about just where the money has gone in recent years, what is drawing money back into smaller, new firms? >> there's a few interesting data points. there was a barclays report that found that more investors are planning to back emerging oneness this year. another report found that a lot more funds were backing at least one new launch last year, and a third report which is helpful data found a lot of funds are looking for new relationships. that means not necessarily rehabbing their investments in endings they're already invested in, but investing in brand-new funds that they haven't had exposure to before. >> i'm really interested in why this is happening right now. there has been a lot of talk of a house tract you have so many fund managers being at this point yet you have the anecdote and the story as incredible. new fund managers being treated like celebrities over at that famous morgan stanley event. who are some of these names and how are they getting to these funds? >> we talked a lot at multishot

funds on the show but one thing to keep in mind is a bout of these funds and allocators of these funds are pretty much at the exposure limit. they've already invested, they are locked up in these funds, so every new dollar they may be looking to put into a new manager and they may be interested more in an emerging manager. so what that means is while there are fewer new dollars out there because it is still a very difficult environment, perhaps there's more interest and opportunity for these emerging managers to get a hold of that. >> some of these managers, we've reported on some of the biggest, you've been all over the story, for example. one of the types of managers getting interest right now? >> the reason why they are in such hot demand or in higher demand than a lesser-known bond is because they have the tenure. a lot of these places -- people work the places like millennium, citadel. there are someone -- is someone from lmr who has launched a fund.

that helps as well if you've proven yourself, but really allocators were investing in these funds want to see experience, they want to see that you've shown that you can make money on the trade and that you are an expert in the area. they are more likely to raise capital. >> interesting, have to have a good relationship with your former boss. we are going to get a quick check of the markets before we let you go. it has been a down day in the markets here, close to session lows when you look at this s&p 500 and the nasdaq. the nasdaq 100 now down 100 now down 1.6%. s&p 500 down 8/10 of 1%. two-year yields hanging out lower, but they date ahead. that 10 year yield at 4.14 now, six basis points lower on the day as well. a lot of questions about where that steepener goes. stick with us, it is a big day. this is bloomberg.

i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they knocked us down... ...to dial up speeds. like from the 90s. great times. all i can do say is that my life is pre-- i like watching the puddles gather rain. -hey, your mom and i procreated to that song. oh, ew! i think you've said enough. why don't we just switch to xfinity like everyone else? then you would know what year it was. i know what year it is.

announcer: from the world of politics, to the world of business, this is "balance of power." ♪ live from washington, d.c. ♪