>> welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." markets have just come online in sydney. >> we are counting down to asia's major opens. stocks set for a weaker start after weaker u.s. jobs data waiting for tuesday's cpi print. >> japan is likely to escape a technical recession when we get a revised gdp but it may not convince the boj that wages are taking off. >> china is sent to wrap up an ambitious growth target. >> take a look at how we are setting out. pretty muted for the monday morning trading session. australia just coming online. asx climbing the most last week.

we had a pretty good rally last week. and a little bit of a pullback with profit-taking at the beginning of the session. we are hearing some revisions when it comes to more optimism on the macro scenarios as well as upgrades to the consensus on earning estimates. australian bank stocks can keep rising against that backdrop. take a look at the aussie dollar. 6619. the dollar declines we have seen. especially benefiting the likes of the yen and more broadly we are seeing weakness across the dollar playing out in asia. taking a look at how we are seeing the setup for the japan

markets. it should be an interesting week given hyped expectations over some sort of getting progressive and closer to lift off from the bank of japan. we are seeing nikkei futures lower by about .2%. dollar-yen. domestic handles including wage negotiations driving speculations that the bank of japan could move as soon as this month according to some economists watching. we are amplifying the trend lower in dollar-yen. we miss we have seen in the dollar -- the weakness we have seen in the dollar is largely a part of the story of the yen as well. >> that puts into question what we expect from the fed. u.s. futures coming online. there was a slip to end the week. we saw better numbers at the start. the jobless rate hitting a

two-year height in february but the hiring market remaining healthy. a bit of a mixed bag for economists and traders to be passing over. a little bit of weakness. you can see it is still following across being felt in the tech heavy nasdaq index. and the valuations are still sitting around a two decade high. this week it is the fed narrative that will be tested. u.s. inflation print is due on tuesday. you expect that to be trading above the fed's targets. just over 3% on the year. taking a look at the core reading, still at 3.7%. it seems like more of the seasonal trends are playing into that. it seems to be a story of high gasoline prices as well. that is likely to be assisting end of february. what does that mean for the fed?

headline level, it does seem like it is not going to be enough or -- this is what we are seeing from investors. they are pricing in three cuts over the 2024. as bloomberg economics says, it is a close call on may or june at this time. >> the anticipated fed pivot -- we saw a springing to life across the gold market. on friday, we saw it building through the course of last week a lot of activity. that was only half of the story. a lot of this comes down to what we are seeing when it comes to market dynamics in china. chinese consumers as well as the central bank have been bolstering demand when it comes to the gold market. a record rally. coming through from china.

on friday we saw prices reaching decembers record. on tuesday as well. and jumping to successive daily highs. a record run looking like 2002. if you take a look at the momentum behind the rally, we tend to see gold spike in response to geopolitical events, a haven demand. nothing noteworthy happened with that surge so we look to china. that is where we have seen a lot more of the physical demand coming from that market. we are also watching the u.s. cpi. and over the weekend we saw china inflation numbers. it was optimistic. the seasonality factor and the distortions with lunar new year and the factories being closed and then reopening, the combination of those numbers from those months tend to be

less reliable. going forward we have a 5% gdp target and a lot of these growth figures will be harder to obtain without that base. it is an oddly quiet monday. we would usually see the premier's press conference. there is an exceedingly rare chance to ask a chinese leader about the state of the economy. we are not getting that this year. >> scrapped for the first time in 30 years. a story we are tracking is the one in china. and the focus on japan. we have updated fourth-quarter gdp numbers due in about 45 minutes. bloomberg economics is saying the number will likely be revised higher showing via economy did not enter a technical recession after all. for more let's bring in our senior editor, brian joining us from tokyo. gdp revisions are curious. what was missing the first time

around that will lead to such a big revision this time? >> it is exciting. the key thing to watch is business investment. the finance ministry released data a week ago for thoth quarter that were stronger than consensus and we ask -- and we expect that data to be reflected in the revised data. the preliminary data, capital investment fell a little bit. economists believe the capex part will advance. that is expected to lift the overall gdp to an annualized growth rate of about 1.1. we escape technical recession. does all of this set up for expectations from the bank of japan or is there more they want to see when it comes to wage negotiations? >> the wage negotiations are

going to culminate this week. on friday we got the results from a collection of unions. for reference, we learned last week that the average demand from all of the unions this year was at 5.85%. a year ago they asked about 4.85%. the result was about 3.6%. if they are asking for 5.85%, pretty good chance that the result will be around 4.5-4.6. that would be the fastest growth in wages in 30 years by quite a margin and would probably be a pretty strong green light to the boj to move ahead. whether they seize the moment and go in march or if they wait a month remains to be seen. they definitely would have the data they need to make that case for ending the negative rate this month i think. >> our senior editor brian in tokyo. the numbers coming up later this

hour. still ahead, the u.s. morning israel against an invasion of southern gaza with cease fire talks deadlocked as ramadan begins. we will have the latest on the conflict just ahead. but first, china's parliament is about to wrap up its annual session after fresh warnings about property speculation. we will have a closer look at the outcomes next to. ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪

>> china's annual session of parliament wraps up in beijing in a few hours with more emphasis on what leaders did not do and what they did. let's get over to stephen engle. on monday you would usually be ready to head back to the great

hall of the people but there is no press conference. pieced together the puzzle pieces to tell us what was most significant for you this year. >> i have covered a lot of these national people's congress and the usually go on and on, upwards of tendo 14 days. this was a truncated version. seven days. also truncated in the fact that there will not be the ending with a press conference with the premier. you could read a lot into that. the messaging needs to come from xi but they will not give us the ability to ask the questions about the policies which were outlined in that work report from a week ago. and even that was fairly truncated. 56 minutes of a readout from the premier. sometimes they can go well into

a second hour. also there press conferences were all truncated as well. we had the finance ministry, the ministry of commerce, the pboc all doing the same press conference midweek last week. i don't know if they are in a big hurry to get out of town but it seems as though they simply dock to the same -- simply stuck to the same message and reaffirmed the same buzzwords. xi talked last year about high-quality development. that is something the minister and agency heads talked about, how to achieve high-quality development. they also talked about the new three -- the new innovative drivers of the economy. and more broadly talked about new productive forces. those are the marching orders for the provinces. without causing bubbles and

their traditional, reliable industries provide income for these provinces, they need to also tap into local resources and build new drivers. there is not a lot of news out of this national people's congress other than they will stay the course and not throw big bang stimulus at the slowing economy. haidi: stay with us because i do want to bring in kerry brown, professor of chinese studies at king's college, london. you have written a book about the west's concerns about a rising china whether it be the economy or geopolitical ambitions. how much harder is it to improve that relationship when there seems to be less transparency and more opaque city from beijing? -- opacity from beijing?

kerry: the economy is very difficult and it is difficult for everyone. they are facing a difficult political situation. and then something strange happens with the premier not giving the press conference. that has been since the 1990's. one of the few moments when a senior chinese politician meets members of the foreign press and local press. it was always a very scripted event but at least you got something. it is not happening. and for the statement that the premier made at the beginning, it was interesting and how it stressed how they could not continue with bureaucratic proceedings. maybe this truncated congress is

a model for the future. at the moment you cannot receive that because the messaging has been quite brusque. it does not explain how the administration will deal with the significant problems it is facing at the moment. >> does that make it difficult to create a -- particularly as we get into more political uncertainty in the u.s. and what would happen with that relationship if we had another trump presidency? >> i think they have decided they will be stressing the unified message. xi has decided it will all be about unity as the world outside gets more unpredictable.

a lot of his policies are about trying to create more autonomy in technology and there have been some successes there. but at the end of the day, decoupling of america and china and china and the west cannot happen. it is to integrated, the economies. a lot of the ideas this week at the national people's congress were about finance and china creating a better finance market dealing with local government debt. these issues will need partnership with the west whether china likes it or not or whether the west likes it. i think pragmatism will win in the end. the messaging this week has made it a little more difficult and i'm surprised by that. >> i wanted to get back to the lack of the press conference. in 2020, some off-the-cuff

comments were made about poverty and that earned him that moniker as the people's premier. do you see a situation where all senior leadership is taking a step into the shadows and we are expected to just focus on the messages and thoughts from the one leader? kerry: i think that is the strategy. li and the other leaders including one with a security portfolio -- they are not household names. not that li was ever a household name in the west but he did have a personality and a track record. the leaders at the moment, it is hard to get any kind of emotional connection with them at all. there were parts of what were said in the statement at the beginning about how things needed to be better in china but it was mostly an aspirational

talking about -- we will do this and we will do that and we have a plan. the problem is the plan has to have buy-in by the chinese middle class and entrepreneurs and the nonstate sector and it is hard to buy into a fairly robotic message. it is also hard for the outside world to know what is actually going on. we are a skeptical and doubting lot and we do not tend to interpret gaps and things that are indivisible in a positive way and there are a lot of those in chinese politics at the moment. a lot of the time it looks as though we don't see anything and that is troubling. >> steve engle. let me jump in. i think you have hit the nail on the head with a confidence crisis. when i was at the press conference with the ministry heads, they were as sensually reading from the sink playbook. on the other hand you had the

finance minister saying we are going to be tightening our belts and rejecting extravagance and practice frugality. but two seats down you had the minister of commerce and, please, middle-aged household or households, please, spend more. which 1 --frugality or spend more? it seems like they are not reading from the same playbook. kerry: indeed. the vigor of growth -- they have said a weird phrase. a target of about five point 2%. this year's target was met coming out of covid but going forward it will be more difficult. the middle class cares about housing. the middle class are mostly working or want to work in the knots -- the nonstate sector. it is a hard message for them to be told, you are important and

you have to work within the framework we are giving but not being told what the incentives are. the politics in china at the moment is relentlessly about the message and not the messengers apart from chichi and ping -- apart from xi. the message leaves a lot of gaps about not only why things are being done and the way they are being done but also who is really going to believe in them? i believe there is a creeping doubt and people are losing confidence in the chinese economy x -- externally. and within china people are starting to lose confidence. and once the confidence goes, it does not come back easily. >> you mentioned property but at the press conference, it was not mentioned once and it is the elephant in the room. it leads to household wealth and household confidence. were you surprised they did not

address or talk about policies to build -- to build up the biggest drag on the economy and confidence, the property sector? kerry: it would be natural to talk about that. it has been stagnant for a while. huge problems with the construction companies and the building companies going into huge debt problems. i think the fact that everything -- it seems like the whole approach in this national people's congress has led to buckling down. we know what we are doing, we are busy, we are so busy that we can't meet for more than seven days. having not got out clearly what they are doing, apart from a few big headlines, now i suppose we will just have to watch hawkish li as the next month or two unfolds because there will have to be some sign that they are going to reinvigorate the property market and that they

can or they have other plans. there is a lack of a sense that there is a plant. i thought the congress would be the great opportunity to outline the plan. we are being told there is a plan but they have not said much about it. >> what do you think new productive forces means? and what does it mean in the context of what is becoming more of a bifurcated world geopolitically and in high-tech? kerry: i think it means a couple things. a previous premier mentioned loosening various areas of growth in the chinese economy. he talked about creating a health-care sector. which would create some growth. also soft infrastructure. i think they raised the pensions by a small amount. these things are going to

generate growth. the first thing is that. the second thing is a continued project of getting away from the united states. china creating innovation. there was criticism about a lack of innovation but it is increasing and china is still chasing after creating it. other areas where it wants to be less reliant and more autonomous from the outside, particularly america. on their mind is what is going to happen in november in the american elections and it is possible that things could get tougher. a trump presidency will be tougher on china. and i think they are just trying to steal themselves for what would probably be a very tough election and then what follows it. >> kerry brown, good to have you

with us from king's college. plenty more to come here on "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: taking a quick check of the markets here. we are heading through the markets session. a couple things we are looking ahead to this week. tuesday for the u.s. inflation. japan gdp figures. a straley a half an hour into i think he's having a midlife crisis i'm not. you got us t-mobile home internet lite. after a week of streaming they knocked us down... ...to dial up speeds. like from the 90s. great times. all i can do say is that my life is pre--

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to. this is an ambiguous report. >> i would err on the side of this being a generally a positive story. >> but markets have priced in expectations, and that's why i see this ambiguous as opposed to simply confident. >> nothing is alarming but it's headed in the right direction and that's what the market wants to see. >> some more good news from chair powell and this gets you there. >> interest rate cuts are in the picture. i think it's quite reasonable. >> people love to criticize the fed, but wow, it's hard to look for fault in their behavior through this cycle. haidi: that were some of our guests on bloomberg tv reacting to the latest u.s. jobs report showing a cooling yet resilient labor market. let's look at the latest inflation print out of the u.s. tuesday that likely abated gradually last month, while retail rebounded.

bloomberg economics expects china's pboc to lower the one year medium-term lending facility rate by 10 basis points marking the first cut since august. japan's revised fourth quarter gdp may show the economy wasn't in a technical recession after all. india's cpr me continue to ease in february which could force the rbis to rethink the hawkish bias. cathay pacific may extend growth in annual profit as a recruit -- continues to recover from the pandemic, and the maker of apples iphones report following prices in the first six weeks of the year. that is your week ahead. haidi: cease-fire talks between israel and hamas remain deadlocked as islam's holy month of ramadan begins.

michael heath is following these developments. president biden is clearly quite frustrated given that there have been hopes a cease-fire would be well underway by now. what is the hold up? >> it seems like both sides are sticking to their position. hamas in particular in this case because it is insisting that israel withdraw and civilians can go back to the north of the country. israel obviously wants hostages out and a pause and does not want to have its hands tied of being able to go into raffah. president biden said moving into rafah would be crossing the line. he can't stop arms sales to israel because there's too much connection between the countries , but it looks like,'s is looking to drag this out as

political tension intensifies. both sides, and the objections -- the egyptians, u.s. and qatar, are looking to get more aid. the u.s. is going to build a key to allow to bring an offshore aid. annabelle: you mention growing frustration from the u.s. even if it cannot be backed by any sort of real ramifications. but domestically, inside israel, netanyahu says most people are supporting his policies. are we seeing any sort of shift? >> not really. the shock of that attack, even though it's dissipated, and all the horrors we are seeing in gaza, it remains very profound in israel. this idea that they cannot leave hamas, that they must destroy it, seems to have resonated and seems to be the general majority

view. there are certainly elements and arguments that they should be getting more civilians out of the way. but the basic notion hamas cannot be left in charge of gaza and with the potential for another these october's -- october 7 talks, netanyahu has that support. internationally, israel is damaging itself with civilian casualties. sympathy is dissipating very fast. hamas has picked up on this, especially with ramadan. if you get more upheaval and tensions, the mosque in jerusalem, if there are more clashes, it builds even further pressure on israel. it's a real standoff at the moment. haidi: in the state of the union he said humanitarian assistance cannot be a secondary consideration.

how effective are the aid efforts at this point? >> the drops that the jordanian air force and u.s. are doing, there's nothing systematic. if they do build a pier, it will take time. it will not happen quickly. israel will be responsible for distributing the aid. there's a lot of talk about who's responsible for this. but people are beginning to starve. children are starving. this is a critical issue. i think the u.s. will not deal with israel too much on it. they will do what they can on that front. annabelle: that was michael heath. taking a look at the other geopolitical stories we are tracking this morning, and australia, they will scrap import tariffs on a wide good of consumer goods in july.

the government says almost 500 of what it calls nuisance tariffs will be abolished on goods including washing machines, toothbrushes, and pens. it estimates companies will save almost $20 million u.s. a year in compliance costs. india has signed a free-trade pact with four european countries. the deal with non-eu countries including switzerland and norway has been 16 years in the making. india gets private sector investment commitments in return for the european securing easy access to indian markets and products. the biden administration is said to be weighing sanctions on several chinese tech companies including a chipmaker. sources say the commerce department is considering adding see xmt and five other chinese firms to the so-called entity lists, which restricts company access to u.s. technology. cxmt competes with the likes of

microsoft, samsung and sk hynix. south korea will complete sending out this week the first license suspension notices to thousands of doctors who walked off the job in protest to a government plan to increase medical school enrollment. our government editor for korea joins us. i'm surprised this has continued for so many weeks. in fact it seems the action could be set to widen even further. >> exactly. the number of trainee doctors who have taken part has grown. we are going into our fourth week and it seems there's no resolution in sight. the doctors have grown in numbers, the governments -- the government is not backing down. there is a stalemate and it will be there for some time it looks like. haidi: we talked in the past about the more and trenched --

and structural extremes. this is having an impact on the existing ability of the health care system to provide care at this point? >> we are seeing strains in the health care system now. we are having people who would have gone to the emergency rooms go to local clinics, some procedures which are essential like endoscopy's are being put off. people are having trouble making appointments. the system is still functioning. there are people who are manning facilities, the government is trying to find more funds for it. it is going along but is in a precarious situation. we are seeing delays but we are seeing it function as well. so hopefully we will get some sort of resolution. but the health care system is going, but there are problems.

> but at the same time, if anything, this has sort of been a win of sorts for president yoon. >> we are seeing his popularity reached levels it has not done for months. we have an election coming up april 10 for parliament and the public stands behind the government plan to increase enrollment at medical schools. they see it as reducing wait times and getting more doctors in more places. the walkout is going on, the support for the conservative people power party seems to be building. this could help him. the party looks to take over parliament. it is in the minority now and trying to get more seats and perhaps take over the majority. annabelle: that was john herskovitz, our east asia government editor. he still had, how one firm is looking to transform asia's startup ecosystem by creating a supportive environment for firms.

our interview with the cofounder and chairman of the edgeof is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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reuters is reporting more boj officials are leading toward scrapping the central banks negative interest rate in march, given expectations of larger wage increases this week, we have fourth-quarter gdp out in the next few minutes. headlines will be revised to show growth of .7% indicating the economy was not in a technical recession overall. the top official in a coalition party says japan is likely to hold a general election in the fall. annabelle: we've got markets that are coming online in just over 15 minutes from now. this is the set up getting here, the futures for nikkei contract coming online in the next -- last 10 minutes coming for a steep drop in the open. it could be the follow-on from the u.s. session because we saw u.s. stocks ending the week a bit lower. tech stocks in particular coming under pressure after the mixed u.s. jobs report and inflation we are looking ahead to next. the other story is that japanese

yen. we've seen the strengthening coming through over the past four weeks on a weekly basis. now trading under the 147 work. the yen strength ways on the export for japanese equity. today on japan ahead, we are looking at investing in the start up in fintech space. the edgeof is a venture capital firm for -- focusing on cross-border stata reps looking to tackle issues and make positive social changes. it acquired one of softbank's vc units with a portfolio that spans asia. atsushi taira is cofounder and chairman at the edgeof. he previously held executive positions at softbank, reporting directly to masayoshi son. it was started nearly a year ago

today. what have you been doing and what are some of the highlights you can share over the past 12 months? >> thank you for having me, first of all. we are excited because we formed edgeof to establish a startup ecosystem. each country has a very good ecosystem but they are not connected because each country has a different stage and different culture and economy stage. i think now, it's good timing to connate fragmented market -- connect fragmented markets into one. we have a number of startups on the pan asia basis. i think they are quite unusual

numbers. our intention is to create a pan asia system and support the asia start to expand in asia, and global startups to come to asia to expand the business. that is the intention we have. annabelle: what sort of startups are you focusing on in particular here? when you say you are trying to connect the dots or the different asian countries or economies, how does it work in a practical sense? >> we are focusing on ai and tech startups. ai of course is booming, but i believe this is not just the firm, but real business we will be generating. ai needs data. without data, it is nothing. technology can be global, but it is required to have a local partnership. for example, to get into japan with a japanese partnership and

indonesia, the indonesian partnership. we are very focused on ai. local partnerships are quite important to get into the country and also asia. if we have a network in asia, it is possible to support ai startups. haidi: can you tell us a little more about your strategic partners and investors? >> we are focusing on architects in asian countries to expand business in asian countries. it is important to have a strong relationship with conglomerates. they build companies and also the economy. we are looking for one or two from each country. japan, korea, indonesia,

thailand, vietnam, and also india. and then to work together to find the next generation ai start up from asia and also globally and to support them to expand the business on a pan asia basis. haidi: what are your long-term ambitions? >> long-term ambitions, we would like to see more unicorns from a pan asia basis. in japan, it is a very small number. i think any more unicorns from the pan asia basis other than just the u.s. only. annabelle: let's talk about the opportunities and challenges in japan's startup scene in particular. from perhaps a valuation perspective, you still see them

looking reasonable given we have seen so much frost around ai generally. but what valuations have you had and how has the weaker yen played into that? >> obviously, reasonable, but also small. most japanese startups focus on the japanese markets. i think it is reasonable in the opportunity to invest. potential growth i think -- that's why we are encouraging government officials and startups to look out and go beyond their borders to expand the business outside of japan. annabelle: what sort of sectors do you see in japan in particular? >> i think japan is out in front of asian society. that's why we are looking for huge opportunities around asian

society, it can include may be health care, bio, longevity, and the shortage of workforce is a big issue and that should be an increase by automation and robots. annabelle: atsushi taira, chairman of the edgeof joining us. japanese gdp do in a few moments now.taking a look at how markets are shaping up. you are seeing the nikkei futures contract pointing to a drop of as much as 1.75%. what's playing into that is the u.s. session friday. the weakness into the close mixed jobs report. you have seen the yen moving higher against the greenback over the past four weeks. but we are on a wait for the gdp number. we do have the revision coming through now. it does show on a quarter on quarter basis that japan did

avoid a technical recession. it has a growth of .4% on the quarter. estimate had been for 1.1%. so that is a lot weaker than what most economists had been expecting to note. our bloomberg economics team is closer to what they were forecast and they were predicting growth of .7% quarter to quarter annualized. that was a focus coming into the support -- report. we had an estimate of .4% contraction in the first reading. in the final reading, we are seeing growth of .4% so that tells us japan avoided technical recession. what else we are tracking out of the numbers, we do have various other readings coming through at this point. broadly, with this revision, we are seeing is looking better than had an expected. for japanese yen, you are continuing to track the move here.

we do have further strength coming into the currency here. we have seen agitating for a policy shift perhaps as soon as this month. you can catch japan ahead every week, every monday at 8:40 p.m.. 7:40 p.m. if you are in new york. morehead. this is bloomberg. ♪ n orders coming in... big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant... that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that. and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card. make more of what's yours.

haidi: it is the night of nights. late has been such a challenging time for show business, for hollywood of course with the writer and actors strikes but we are back in a sort of celebratory mood and, celebrating. the boy and the heron got the award for the best animated film. divine joy randolph winning best supporting actress for "the holdovers," which is one of the few i've begun to watch. i can't even say i've finished it. it comes to this point in time when i'm trying to make my way through. it is worth going through the

other top contenders. christopher nolan is the top pick for best director. we are seeing very strong bets for robert downey jr. and cillian murphy, for oppenheimer. annabelle: oppenheimer will probably be taking the big call here. you take us back to where we were a few months ago. we had oppenheimer and barbie being released on the same day. then it was the big question coming into the awards season, who would come out in front? oppenheimer, given the big nominations. barbie, even though it was the biggest box office draw over the last year, it contended for best picture, but is only favored to win into categories, costume design and best song. but it was such a great film, unfortunately missing out this awards season. oppenheimer really the one that is going to be taking the

trophies home today. that's the oscars and we can report back on that ceremony unfolding in los angeles, being hosted this year by jimmy kimmel live, the late-night star. taking a look at how markets are performing, we said shifting back to the biggest focus, the bigger focus for markets today is japan gdp figures. we saw the growth on a quarter on quarter annualized basis, .4%, less than the estimate but still showing that japan escaped technical recession in the latest quarter. the markets, further japan yen strength and equities looking ahead of the open. a drop of 1.8%, giving an eye on the tech stocks in particular. ♪

>> this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." counting down to major market opens. it is a great day to be in tokyo because we just japan gdp figures coming out to, revised numbers for the fourth quarter telling us to japan managed to avoid a technical recession, so something interesting to note as we got down to the boj decision due just ahead they could be setting the stage for the boj to pivot away from easy policy settings. haidi: one more piece of the puzzle as you get the incremental drumbeat toward if the day, will they come out when what they get on the path to policy normalization? if you look at direction when it comes to upside buyers, jgb yield, decades are starting to build with additional momentum. we have the report boj is considering scrapping