tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg March 11, 2024 2:00am-3:00am EDT
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>> good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am tom mackenzie in london. it began in focus has japanese stocks of the most among some growing speculation the bank of japan will raise rates, it investors look ahead to u.s. investor data tomorrow. u.s. president joe biden towards israel against invading the city of rafah, calling it a redline as cease-fire talks remained deadlocked. aramco's 31 billion dollars gift, the world's biggest oil exporter ramps up its quarterly dividend despite loyal oil prices to plug a budget deficit. a bit of profit across the nasdaq on friday. we had jobs data, unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9%, but broadly the jobs picture looking at a relatively resilient in the u.s. european stocks ended friday at
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a press record. european stocks pointing to losses of .5 of 1%. the data focus is the inflation print out of the u.s. on tuesday. it is worth noting inflation out of china managed to take up in a recent reading suggesting the inflationary funk is starting to return. ftse futures pointing lower by .3 of 1%. just down .1 of 1% on s&p futures. it lets with the board and look cross asset, the focus to take is very much on what is happening with japanese assets, the strength coming through from japanese yen and yields up as well and what that is doing for the equity picture in japan. let's start with the 10-year stateside, 4.06 as we look at the inflation print tomorrow. cory expected to take up 3.6%. softer inflation print out of the u.s. leading to the goldilocks rally ending up side
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we have seen broadly or today for u.s. stocks. what is the next level for this, do we cross the red 14 five, does 140 provide support for dollar-yen? seeing strength for the japanese currency weighing on the equity story. brent down .5 of 1% and iron ore taking a big hit amid concerns not enough support is coming here for the real estate sector in china. let's get more details on how the asian markets are faring with avril hong standing by in singapore. what is sending out to you? avril: we have a number of things to want back. standing at the most is that gdp print debt of japan because there was an upward revision. what investors are focusing on is how the japanese economy avoided a recession, a technical one, and that is building the case for the boj to exit negative rate policy. that is implications cross asset
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, and taking a look first at what we are seeing at the japanese currency. it was strengthening, putting pressure on the equities, but also on bonds. based on expectations of what we will get from the boj next week not just because of the report saying we could see an exit from negative rate policy, but also yield control as soon as next week. we also have wage negotiations, and so for those with words shall rises upwards of 5%. that will be key to watch. we have toyota union reporting results of negotiations later in the week. all of that could be feeding into the market. topix declining the most since april 2020. paring that by the close as well as the nikkei. it is not just tech names that
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dropped to, ai, chip related ones. it is also japanese lenders that declined. bright spot in chinese names, tech ones, consumer related ones after the cpi print over the weekend showing the first rise since august. i want to show you what we are seeing cross asset in china as well, hung saying -- hang seng recovery. onshore-offshore note saying even though we saw positive sentiment coming through their weekly losses for the hang seng as the chinese npc underwhelmed. tom: let's get more on the national people's congress which wraps up today. china pleasantness annual session of parliament wrapping up in less than one hour with more emphasis on what leaders did not do then what they actually did. let's bring in allen.
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it would have been the key takeaways this year? >> there are no big surprises. on the economic front, economic targets like gdp and fiscal targets were in line with expectations. target of around 5% for gdp is in the upper range of what most economists expect. premier li said it would be hard to achieve. in terms of how the government will achieve these targets there are indications of the government is going to increase spending to the issuance of one trillion ultra long special government bonds, so more fiscal stimulus and not as much monetary stimulus. tech innovation and upgrading industry, and they came up with the cool slogans to achieve. one was called new protective forces, new technology to upgrade traditional industries and another was order for
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consumption where they will allow consumers to up their household products. the second main take on it was on the political front where we saw president xi continuing to consolidate power. they passed a special organic law which would tighten the communist party's grip on the cabinet and also the cancellation of the premier li's press conference with the media. this has been tradition every year, but not so anymore which represents a downgrading of the post. it increased for investor's concerns about lack of transparency within the government. tom: cool slogans from the national people's congress is new to me, so thank you for that detail. the wrapping up of the national people's congress in a little under an hour. u.s. president joe biden is warned israel against an
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invasion of the city of rafah as cease-fire talks remained deadlocked at the beginning of ramadan. pres. biden: there are red lines that if he crosses, we cannot have 30,000 more palestinians dead. if are other ways to deal, to get to, deal with the trauma caused by hamas. tom: i redline draw by -- a redline drawn by joe biden. ramadan has started. how dangerous is this moment? >> there were high hopes as cease-fire would be in place for the start of ramadan. that has not happened. talks are continuing, not on a formal in person capacity. there were negotiators from the mediators and hamas in cairo,
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but they have left. there is a chance we could get as cease-fire sometime during this month. there is no inevitability, but i think it is something israel is prepared to accept if it is along the broad lines that have been discussed already, which is roughly a six week truce in exchange for 40 hostages still held by hamas are being released from gaza. tom: what i hear the u.s. president talking about red lines it makes me think about red lines articulated by former u.s. presidents in syria, but we are talking about a historic ally. how bad are tensions between biden and netanyahu for biden to be using this language? >> those tensions are growing
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and growing pretty rapidly, and until now biden and the u.s. have not totally ruled out israel attacking rafah. they said it cannot happen under the current circumstances, which means the one million plus civilians that fled to rafah had to be allowed out first, and israel pledge that would happen, that they would open a safe corridor to enable them to leave before an assault on the city, which is thought to hold 5000 to 8000 hamas fighters but yesterday it seemed to be rolled out altogether. i think at that is a hardening of the u.s. stance. the u.s. now believes israel should not under any circumstances attack rough --
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rafah. the other question is what leverage does u.s. have to stop an attack on rafah if israel pushes ahead with its plan and a lot of people would say it has very little. there is nothing biden and the u.s. can do to stop it. tom: thank you very much with the latest from that region. traders are on alert for harder than expected u.s. inflation, and the data is expected to be published tomorrow. for a preview let's bring in jill disis. january cpi was a surprise for the markets that came in harder than expected. what is the expectation around the data tomorrow and what the market reaction may be? >> i think that the data for february, worry is if it comes in other than expected we are expecting some resilience.
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the question will be whether or not there is enough cooling to give us more insight into what the fed rate cut might look like. the reason why this inflation report is so important is becoming a we got from the meeting. they will not cut rates in march. there is a lot of thinking about what is the discussion going to be like a monk fomc members next week, but will powell's press conference be like? will we get some clarity and with a big enough to push the fed toward cutting interest rates and may or june. what traders are looking out for is clarity on what the trajectory looks like. you might see a rally in the bond market cool off and you might see that push on gold star to is up too.
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that is what is factoring into the calculus for traders right now. what does this tell us about what fed officials with an coming into the march meeting? we will see what policymakers think taking all of these data points. the job report on friday was confusing. we sought nonfarm payrolls be resilient, so we will see at the february cpi data gives us clarity into what is happening with the economy tom: -- economy. tom: jill with an excellent preview. talking about what else is on the agenda, before we get to the cpi print we will get u.k. jobs data, as a interesting time in terms of how we think about the bank of england and next steps with the central bank.
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it markets increasingly pricing and for the fed and ecb a move around june. for the bank of england we are talking august. does the data tomorrow change the dynamic? there is a view that inflation is stickier and the u.k. economy is slightly more resilient. we dipped into a recession but even the bank of england governor suggested the data starting to look more positive, so we look ahead to that data tomorrow. later in the day we get the cpi print at the u.s. the expectation is for core year on year you see 3.7%, well above the target for the federal reserve, but the volatility of on this print is going to be interesting. on average over the last year you have seen 0.8% move in terms of the s&p and other direction on cpi data. on the earnings front vw
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reporting. we will be looking for the story around china, to what extent is the market softening. and the demand picture around electric vehicles, so that earnings story will drop on wednesday and give us further clarity in terms of some of those factors as we weigh up margins for automakers. get a roundup of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb, and there are a number of key stories unfolding on the page right now. japan firmly in focus. in the session today the stronger yen in focus and building speculation that may be next week the boj will end its negative rate policy. biden and his warning around the redline for israel and an
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dynamics playing through for this crucial commodity, but the top story of the day when it comes to oil is what happens with saudi aramco because the company has hiked its quarterly dividends to $31 billion despite lower production and falling prices. it provides much of the saudi's government income. let's get the details from anthony who is standing by. income coming in lower down 20%, and yet the dividend has been hiked. what is going on? >> this is a trend we saw in this earnings. from big oil companies where net income is dropping because we had the huge year in 2022 where the commodity complex and general spite, so we had big results they are before and last year they are coming down but still very strong numbers, and a lot of the companies are returning money to the shareholders either via
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dividends or buybacks in terms of big oil. saudi aramco is combining some of the 2022 windfall with the 2023 earnings, and they have put together this special dividend, so that is helping boost the payout which goes mainly to the saudi state. they have increased the base dividend already in the fourth quarter, so that gives some focus to the shareholders that they know there was a downside there. that is the message from the company, and they will continue to share the upside, so they will try to make that a more attractive prospect to outside investors while shoveling that money back to the saudi state. tom: what does it mean they're looking to revive an offering later this year? what is the appetite likely to be if it comes to pass? >> they did not have much luck
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before in terms of getting the big interest and a lot of traction internationally that they wanted, so there were a lot of local and regional interests in the ipo of saudi aramco. they are potentially looking at another listing later this year, and there are some issues around that. the governance issue because it is the saudi state that it does control. we are seeing the other decision in january where the saudi state decided aramco should not increase its maximum spare capacity, so a lot of these directives are not coming from the government, and that is a concern for the shareholders. it remains almost completely state owned, so they are there for the idea here is that they want to give some prospect of growth to the shareholders to try to attract more investors into the company.
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tom: there have been reports around saudi aramco's potential investments in u.s. lng. one of their ambitions in terms of u.s. lng? >> that is an area that they are interested in with shale developments and lots of gas coming out of the u.s. there is the big development along the u.s. gulf coast of allergy coming out, and it will be one of the main contenders were lng production over the decades to come, u.s., qatar, australia will be big exporters, and saudi aramco wants to get in on that and be evolved -- involved. domestic as insider saudi arabia will stay domestically. that they want to get as gas for power in the other guests as a way to create blue hydrogen and
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export that, so there focus on international lng is a trading play trying to get near those assets and give them some thing else they can buy and sell globally, and the u.s. is one of the main areas where they are interested. tom: top line, what is the picture looking like for saudi arabia's economy as it continues to this diversification effort and one of the budget constraints at this point? >> it is an effort at diversification so far, because they need to take these oil earnings and put those into industries and develop new industries that will be able to support the country economically and create jobs going forward as the world shifts away from oil. saudi aramco as a long view on oil use and want to continue
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selling oil for transport, oil that can be turned into chemicals that will make plastics and things we need an electric car and batteries, and they went to continue selling that gas, so they have a long view on the energy industry and expect to be in this industry the next several decades. they need to start taking those oil earnings and putting them into industries in the kingdom. they are having issues bringing in foreign direct investment that they do need in order to get big projects really rolling and get those industries developed. tom: thank you very much with the lens on saudi arabia on the back of saudi aramco's ramped up dividend and what that could mean for the economy of saudi. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: welcome back. not to of those stories we're following, the u.s. justice department is open to criminal investigation into the matter blowout of a 737 max fuselage panel on an alaska airlines flight. the airline says this is standard practice for the doj and it does not believe it is the target of the inquiry. bloomberg is learned reddit is looking to raise as much a $740 million in the company's ipo. the social media platforms plans to sell shares in the range of $31 to $34 each. reddit has been working toward a listing since its initial filing in 2021. oppenheimer has picked up a total of seven academy awards best picture and best director
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for christopher nolan. bobby's eight nominations amounted for just one trophy and night that's all the old guard returned to glory. poor things won four awards including best actress for emma stone beating lily gladstone. coming up, investors look ahead to u.s. inflation data tomorrow after friday's mixed jobs report. our markets wrap is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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tom: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." these are the stories that agenda, they get in focus as japanese doctors had a month on growing speculation the bank of japan will raise rates. investors look ahead to u.s. inflation data tomorrow. u.s. president joe biden warns israel against invading the city of rafah, calling it a redline as cease-fire talks roman deadlock. aramco's $31 billion gift, the world's biggest oil exporter ramps up its dividend to open the government plug its budget deficit. risk off across the equities market with a context that u.s. stocks of rally the last 16 and 19 weeks, the strongest and longest run of gains since the
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1960's in the u.s.. european stocks futures down. ftse 100 futures lowered by 26 points and in the u.k. we have waged it out tomorrow that will be consequential in terms of what you think about the bank of england. s&p futures below 5200 after losses on friday. it nasdaq futures are down .2 of 1% after dropping a little over 1.5% by the end of the friday session currently trading at 18,262. inflation data out of the u.s. will be consequential in terms of thinking on where the fed lens. let's flip the board cross asset, core cpi out tomorrow out of the u.s. will coming year on year at about 3.7% for the month of february. u.s. 10 year at 4.06. strength coming through for the currency, currently 146, it has rallied in the last few weeks on
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expectations of the boj will and -- end is negative rate regime. iron ore taking a big head, that is the commodity of the moment on the softness, concern not enough policy is coming through in terms of the npc to support the real estate market. iron ore down close to 6%. cpi latest data out tomorrow, traders on alert after last month's surprise inflation print coming in higher-than-expected. let's bring in mark cranfield. which assets might be most affected by the u.s. inflation print tomorrow? >> inflation means it is a big week for u.s. treasuries, so it is a big week for all as a classes, but how the response goes in the u.s. rates market
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means a lot for everybody, so all eyes will be on whether or not treasury traders think that they'll come from the cpi is enough to convince the fed to lower interest rates in june or whether we have to take a step back and move further out in the year, so relieved that is when it comes down to is increasingly what we have been hearing from federal reserve people as they want to delay a rate cut into the second half of this year. june looks like a high probability at the moment, but we need a couple of cpi numbers to confirm that is the case, because some of the data has been way too strong from the fed point of view. it is given them a reason to be less optimistic about the outcome on that point of view. there are some people think the cpi number will be another hot one today. there is nothing in the track record that suggest this has to be the case. with treasury yields and the 10 year close to the 4% area is a big number.
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as we go on to victory handle people get excited that a rate cut is coming in the near future. tom: jay powell saying not far from that point where they cut rates, and we will get the cpi print clarity may be. japanese stocks up-to-date 60% but taking a thumping today. the narrative had been it is not just about the yen softness we have seen prior to the last few weeks, but also the corporate governance story that has been derailed by price action today. what is behind the story in japanese stocks? >> i think it has been exaggerated by the time of year. we have had a torrent of media stories ramping up pressure on the markets to think that the bank of japan may actually move in march, which really was a bit of a long shot even a couple of weeks ago. people assumed it would not be before april, possibly even
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july. we have had daily reports telling us the bank of japan is getting close and they are talking about taking away yield curve control. all of this is coming together and we have a few days to go before they meet for the march meeting, so suddenly even the equity market has gotten a bit nervous, and the fiscal year end is coming up at the end of march as well, so if you are traders sitting on good gains, which there have been for the japanese market this year already and you are coming up toward the end of your financial your about probably you are saying there is not much upside for me. i went to go to the sidelines and book some of these profits, because the bank of japan may do a curveball and do everything all in one go in march rather than string it out over a series of meetings, so that is where we are. people looking at the situation saying it is better to book something now rather than wait to see with the bank of japan has to do. tom: top story for us today is
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the short rate around volatility booming in the etf complex. what do you read into the story? >> it is not unusual when financial markets especially in the united states, when equities have had a relatively clear trend in people are confident that it is going to go on. ai has been driving a good rally 16 of 19 weeks, markets moving, that makes people confident to sell volatility and they will try to enhance their returns because they think the market is in a fairly clear direction, particularly for the downside. they are willing to sell put options to earn the extra income because they do not see the market reversing lead to the downside. the more people that join that, you get a lot of people that joined the same trend, too much money is involved. all you need is a bit of disconnect between what policymakers say or an
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unexpected event in the market, and it can turn into a big mess. the last one was about five years ago. it could be triggered in any time, but the amounts of money involved now make it more likely to happen in the next few months rather than the next couple of years simply because the number of people that we need to change direction is so big. a bit of a herd instinct, so something triggers and, if the federal reserve looks at the inflation numbers and says there is no way we are cutting rates this year, that could well put the equity markets into a spin and we may get a big event off the back of it. tom: ok, mark on those potential risks with the cpi print and what is leading to the downside to coming through for the japanese equity story of the session today. thank you very much indeed. to some of the other top
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stories, portugal's center-right coalition has won elections held this weekend and a tight race which also saw support for the far right surge. the ad secured 79 seats, two more than the socialists, far right chega recorded the biggest jump, quadrupling its representation. germany is praising for further trouble chaos after unions representing train drivers and airline staff announced further walkouts. a strike by train drivers coincides with the two days strike after ground crew stopped working last week. delays and cancellations are expected as passengers get caught up in the latest escalation of wage disputes in europe's largest economy. bloomberg is learned in the netherlands is closing in on a deal to sell the tennet power grid to the government in berlin. it comes as germany seeks to
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bolster its energy security amid uncertainty triggered by the loss of russian pipeline gas. some 22 million euros worth of the transaction could be announced. india has signed a free-trade pact with four european countries that the government says will create one million jobs in 15 years. the deal with countries including switzerland and norway has been 16 years in the making. india gets private sector investment commitments in return for the european's securing easy access to product markets. ark investment's flagship etf had not held any nvidia shares. she -- we ask cathie wood whether she regrets the decision what my change her mind. >> we rode it most of the way up, but i will tell you what we
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did. as a portfolio manager, it is not one action, when it causes in terms of another action. last year we sold in the flagship nvidia and into coinbase. coinbase i believe it at least as much as nvidia, and it is much less well understood. the whole crypto movement, the crypto asset movement, bitcoin as a new as that class and so forth is not well understood or completely excepted out there, so we prefer to go where others are not traveling as much, and as we were moving out of nvidia, we were saying regulators are trying to crush coinbase, and we were buying it on every day. nvidia happen to be one of the sources for that purchase.
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it is not just what we do in the sell side. it is what we do on the buy side that you have to look at. we do hold it in the more specialized funds, but we have been taking profits of their as well for reasons i just described. >> coinbase is up 620% compared to 520% gain in nvidia. is there anything in the nvidia story that would make you rethink the name and want to become more aggressive on it? >> yeah, if the price came down a lot, we would. the rate of return expectation -- >> what is split do it? >> that would not change anything. split adjusted, then the price. so if you look at our portfolio, we are trying to capitalize on our the next stages of this ai
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revolution. what we are seeing on the gpu side of things is nvidia, all praise to jensen wan, unbelievable company, execution, vision and so forth, and it is not over. it is going to last a long time, but there will be many other companies benefiting from ai. the productivity lived alone is going to be massive, the most massive productivity left in history we believe, so this ai revolution is going to be broad-based and benefit a lot of companies. on the gpu side, we have amd as competition, but many people do not understand that there are a lot of other surreptitious competition involving out there. each of the hyper scalers is evolving its own chip strategy. you have tesla that has designed
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its own chip, ai chip for the more specialized autonomous driving opportunity, and i think you were going to see a lot of companies developing more specialized chips. we know that nvidia will segment the market as well, so we just think a lot of the assumptions for nvidia, that this is nvidia's market alone, those are changing. tom: cathie wood speaking to carol massar. talking of the likes of nvidia, let's check in on the magnificent seven, because something has happened here today that i started to evolve data raises questions as to whether or not we should ditch the magnificent seven and make the magnificent five or four. you are seeing gains coming through from nvidia, that stock year-to-date is up 80%.
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tesla has slipped year-to-date by 30%. concerns of course are around the demand for electric vehicles, concerned about competition coming through from ev's out of china, concerns about the consumer starting to worry about the push around ev's and whether or not they want an engine to get that drive. apple down your to date around 12%. the china story is a drag as well, expectations have not come to pass. whether or not you carveout apple and as a comic is that a story that sustains itself or is there a turnaround in the narrative, because when out there is a split and a reticent question as to whether or not you have to rebrand the magnificent seven. meanwhile, there has been
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concerned as well as we flipped the board around the concentration of the gains that have come true for the s&p 500, but the s&p 500 on an equal weight basis when all of the constituents are given the same weighting, in that case of the equal weight s&p has overtaken its 2020 two peak suggesting there is this broadening which should assuage concerns around concentration risk. china's npc is wrapping up. we take a look at why there was more of a focus on what the leaders did not do. we will bring you inside from one of the smartest people on china and that economy. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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china's annual session of parliament the national people's congress wreps up in half an hour's time with perhaps more emphasis on what leaders did not do than what they actually did. joining me now is michael pettis and someone who has followed the story of china's economy for years in granular detail. few people have the kind of insights that michael pettis has. one line that stood out, consumption, the only potential engine of growth for 2024 for china is consumption. unpack that line. >> for a large economy there is only two sources of growth, investment and consumption. if you go to the various components of investment, there are three big areas. there is the property sector, which at best was stabilized and probably contract this year.
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there is infrastructure investment, but there is increasing evidence beijing is very concerned about the nonproductive direction of infrastructure spending, so we are starting to see constraints this year, and finally there was the big shift in manufacturing, but as you know an expansion in china's share in global manufacturing requires also that the rest of the world to accommodate it, and it is clear the rest of the world does not want to accommodate an expansion and chinese manufacturing, so we are left with consumption. tom: and they have been reluctant up to this point to go down the route of cash handouts to houses, but do you think that changes this year? >> yeah, because when you think about how we can get consumption to drive the market, there are basically two ways. one day is we hope for a revival in confidence that sets up with
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a revival in consumption we were expecting last year. that could happen, but there is no particular reason to be expected to happen, and if it does not happen then what we are left with is fiscal stimulus directed to the household sector. china has said it will not do that. this is what the u.s. and europe did during covid. i do not see any alternatives. if the other things do not work and that is all you have left, basically that is what you were going to have to do. tom: there is a line that they are going to shift, the policy focuses on shifting from infrastructure, property investment to high and manufacturing investment. >> china is about 17%, 18% of global gdp. chinese consumption is 13% of
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global consumption. manufacturing is an astonishing 31% of global manufacturing, so that is the problem. when china was a smaller share of the world it could expand manufacturing without putting too much pressure on the rest of the world, but it already accounts for nearly 1/3 of global manufacturing, so many expansion driven by an increase in manufacturing gdp must be accommodated by a decrease in manufacturing at the rest of the world. if you were looking what they're saying in the u.s., india, japan, europe, it is not clear where that contraction will come from. tom: on the property sector, we stuck to the -- we talked to the standard charter ceo and they talked about a bottom of the property sector. >> property prices reach levels we had not seen before except in
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the case of japan in the 1980's, so they are still pretty expensive, and i think they are going to come down. i think there will be more attempt to slow down the pace at which it comes down, so far it has been contracting rapidly. at best we can get a slowdown in the contraction. tom: we have to think about politics when we think about the chinese economy, we look ahead to the u.s. election, does either biden or trump change the dynamic for the chinese economy? >> that is really important question, and a lot of people assume that it is going to change, because when we think about biden's policies, your focus toward industrial policy whereas the people around trump have been talking more about trade policy, but the important point to make is from an economic point of view there is no meaningful difference between
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trade policy and industrial policy. in both cases they represent policies that are going to shift income from the household sector to the manufacturing sector in an attempt to grow the manufacturing share of the u.s. economy, so no matter who becomes president i am pretty sure we will continue moving in that direction. tom: really valuable insight as the national people's congress wreps up in beijing. michael pettis, senior fellow, really appreciate your time and insights this monday. there is plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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pitch on the back of the news that they avoided a recession. in terms of the pickup you were seeing into wages that have japan, expectations building that they could to go next week in terms of moving out of negative rates. the strength coming through from the japanese yen, 146. we are is the level -- where is the level? uptick in the goats pressuring japanese equities. last time i checked the nikkei was down over 2%. we continue to focus on the boj story and the expectation that maybe they will finally move out of negative rates. the euro grew president will be speaking exclusively to bloomberg. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we got him under a new plan. but then they unexpectedly unraveled their "price lock" guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the "un-carrier". you sing about "price lock" on those commercials. "the price lock, the price lock..." so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.
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