>> the bar for the fed to cut is long way from the inflation

front, showing continued moderation. >> the market is pricing in the summer. that is quite reasonable. >> they have room to be very patient. >> likely you could see the rate cuts get pushed back. there is a cyclical recovery room in this economy which may or may not support that june cut. >> the baseline remains two or three cuts starting in june. hopefully now we have less chatter about a hike or no hikes this year. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro, lisa abramovitz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. your equity market is negative by one third of 1% on the s&p 500. chairman powell says he needs more evidence. he will get more evidence this week. cpi, ppi, retail sales, jobless claims all on deck. lisa: cpi is on deck tomorrow,

likely the biggest. will a decline in year-over-year cpi, when you strip out food and energy, falling to 3.7% be sufficient to cut rates? maybe not this month but maybe in june. jonathan: that data has whipsawed markets but has not rattled this federal reserve. they have stayed on message. chairman powell has not changed his message from january to the semiannual testimony last week. maybe a little bit on financial regulation for whatever that is worth, but you have people like governor wallace saying what is the rush? they are unmoved by what we have seen the last month. lisa: the market is fighting back. the key question is how much they keep their statements of economic projections the same, at what point does the market fight back more? no wait cuts this year, or as

some say, maybe that is not the case? jonathan: in the sep, that is where you get the outlook from the fed officials. most people we have heard from suggest they will be no change in that from december to where we are right now. annmarie: it's important not just for consumers and investors but politicians, especially as this is an election year. they need to know where the economy is going. i love the comment biden made on friday. he says, i bet you rates are coming down. pretty much what jay powell said anyway. lisa: i don't know why he would even weigh in on this, they will cut rates. does this feature in the american mind? jonathan: no equivalence between

what he said and the same thing that senator warren said. they are not the same thing. whatever. that is what i thought about it going into the weekend. if this is the height of central-bank interference, we will take it. the federal reserve themselves would take it. if that is far as he will go, and if we can even characterize that as interference in central-bank independence -- lisa: cute. jonathan: equities on the s&p 500 negative by a third of 1%. in the bond market, you'll tire by two basis points on the 2-year. 10's not doing much. euro doing nothing this morning. 1.03 on the currency pair. we will catch up with david sowerby.

aaron david miller on biden's redline for israel. the top story, the stock market rally ahead of the last bit of data before next week's decision. cpi, ppi, retail sales on deck this week. retail sales set to rebound, supporting the fed's no rush cut view. david sowerby of and car advisors joins us. i want to go straight to the equity markets and why you think we might be on the precipice of a downside here, maybe sizable salafi. david: in any calendar year, the average intrigue your selloff is about 14%. we have not seen one in at least nine months to a year. while i think the tone of companies is still quite positive especially with respect to their cash flow and free cash flow growth, just the fact that

more people are starting to weigh in that the fed may not be as aggressive and as soon in reducing interest rates, that could be the catalyst that sends stock prices down in the near term. out of that, you'll have an opportunity to buy names that are down 15% or more. jonathan: i know what lead on the way up, can you talk about what will lead on the way down? david: market doesn't like uncertainty. we saw at the end of last october, when the fed said get back in the pool, we are thinking about interest rate cuts, markets responded quite well. now that we are beginning to see some news that inflation is not quite at the tame level you want it to be, that is what could potentially take the market down 10%, maybe a touch more. lisa: you think people are concerned about rates being too

high for too long, stocks have not woken up to that fact yet, is that correct? david: i think the market got ahead of itself anticipating, at one point, talking about six interest rate cuts. that was absurd, wasn't going to happen. we know the market can have some schizophrenia in the near term and that is maybe what is going to face the market. but last week, i was at an investment conference. 320 public companies are presenting. i thought the tone was quite good, b, b-, and they are still generating a lot of free cash flow. if you get this a lot, it will be a buying opportunity. lisa: we just had krishna my money on talking about it is not a concern for him about reinvestment risk, staying in t-bills when people expect the fed to stay higher for longer, and there could be a selloff.

is that how you think about it right now, a time to be in t-bills, wait for that downdraft before entering? david: it gives you outlook for the next few years. you might get excited about a 5% yield but to step back and say absent a near-term hiccup in markets, stocks still represent the best place, particularly u.s. stocks, if you want to compound your will up at 8% or better. we know the bond market to date is flat to down 1% because we see what happens when interest rates go higher. i don't see a lot of excitement in that war cash. jonathan: how relevant is monetary policy to your call? you have referred to it as some sort of brand experience. how has it been? david: it is an experiment that we are still not out of the laboratory yet. we had money growth accelerating

20% year-over-year. in the last 15 months, we have seen negative into money supply growth. we have not seen that in more than 50 years. we are still in this monetary experiment that the fed put us in out of covid. it was good for them to be stimulative. they simply stayed at the party to long. now they are embarrassed and we are living through this experiment, yet to be played out on inflation and interest rates. jonathan: amazing what we have seen in four years, record low interest rates, interest rates at multi-decade highs in just a few years. the banking sector has been whipsawed by that, failing to manage that risk. that was last year's story. we are trying to figure out if there is credit risk around the corner. is that this year's story or next year? david: credit risk is probably a year out.

look at the property equity sector that is more of a floating-rate borrower. that is where the trouble is. good companies, two and a half years ago, wert good at floating their debt, extending debt trudges out further. that has been quite positive in the face of this monetary experiment. when it comes to that holy trinity, the balance sheet was too long ignored. now it is front and center. companies have done a pretty good job managing their balance sheet and interest rate risk here. lisa: if monetary policy was an unprecedented experiment, fiscal policy try to rival that in many ways over the past few years. i'm curious how you maneuver around a fiscal policy that has bolstered certain aspects, electric vehicles, industrial stocks, when people are questioning how that will play through. how do you factor that in whether to decide to pick up the

pace in some areas that have fallen out recently? david: i might have an opinion on the federal reserve, god for bid, try to forecast interest rates, but in the 30-stock portfolio i manage, i've always operated under expect government to do the least amount to fix the problem. that has probably been the best rule for managing a portfolio in the face of what has been disappointing fiscal discipline. and it will continue. lisa: you are saying the industrial policy, the money that a lot of people say are going into different areas, that is being overpriced? david: to some extent. we saw it with the auto industry, the excitement over electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles. that has started to ebb a little bit as people still want their internal combustion engine.

picking the winners and losers in industrial policy, it always sounds good at the beginning. you look at it after the outcome, and more often than not, government has not done a good job picking the winners and losers as opposed to the marketplace and millions of investors every day that vote with their dollars. jonathan: central planning never ends well. david sowerby, thank you for your time. let's get you an update on other stories. here is your bloomberg brief. yahaira: commerce secretary gina raimondo says the u.s. could further tighten controls on china's access to chip technology. she told reporters we cannot allow china to have access for their blitz every advancements to our most sophisticated technology. she added the u.s. will do whatever it takes to keep chinese firm from accessing u.s. chip information. her comments come as the biden administration ways of sanctions on several chinese companies in

order to curb the development of semiconductors. at least 50 people have been injured after a midair incident on a let him flight which caused strong movements on board. a dozen people on board were taken to hospital including one patient in serious condition. oppenheimer picked up a total of seven academy awards including best picture and best director. barbie's eight nominations amounted to one trophy for best song, and a night that saw hollywood's old guard return to glory amid disappointment for streaming companies. poor things saw emma stone when in the award for best actress. that is your bloomberg brief. jonathan: robert downey junior was so good in that movie. so good, i couldn't figure out

that it was him until the end. lisa: he was such a good actor. it is a fantastic movie, really was, from a dramatic perspective and also philosophical perspective. jonathan: well-deserved. i know everyone likes to frame the oscars in some left-wing theory, but oppenheimer was just the best movie, hands down. lisa: do people think that barbie should have won instead? i have seen both. jonathan: some people do. next on the program, biden's redline for israel. president biden: there is no redline i want to cut of all weapons, but you cannot have 30,000 more palestinians dead. jonathan: that conversation up next. ♪

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jonathan: session lows on the s&p 500, negative by 0.5%. nvidia was all over the place on friday succession. positive 5%, -5%. the stock is down by another .8%. lisa: what do you make of the volatility? is there a signal there or is it just all noise? jonathan: hard to say. all i can say is we have had a monster run up into friday. six days, 19%. 20% and a couple trillion is a lot of money. lisa: we are talking hundreds of billions of dollars on market capitalization gained or lost like that.

how does that work going forward if that has been one of the main drivers of the s&p 500? jonathan: that is the modern-day market in 2024. in the bond market, higher by two basis points. 2-year around 4.50. under surveillance this morning, biden's redline for israel. president biden: there is no redline that i want to cut off all weapons so they don't have the iron dome to protect them but you cannot have 30,000 more palestinians dead as a consequence of going after them. there is another way to deal with the drama caused by hamas. jonathan: president biden slinging his harshest criticism yet as is really prime minister netanyahu, division growing over the next phase of the war, as both sides failed to reach any agreement on a cease-fire before ramadan.

aaron david miller joins us now for more. thanks for being with us. do you believe there is a real split taking place between these leaders or is this a convenient media narrative to benefit the president here domestically aaron: i think it's real. anger and frustration on the part of the administration is growing. i don't think we are on the cusp of a breach. the problem is with no hostage or prisoner release deal, a dynamic is lady threadbare for all to see. hamas is using tunnels and time to create pressures inside israel and externally from the united states on the netanyahu government. benjamin netanyahu is determined to pursue an operation in rough -- rafah to destroy tunnels and where he believes the senior hamas leadership is. it's very real. the question is can it be managed? the president needs to make a

decision whether he wants to make a point or make a difference. if he wants to make a difference, i'm not sure if he has much choice to work with the israelis. without is really acquiescence, this will go on and on. it has already taken a toll on the president's election prospects. annmarie: did he actually create a redline? he said after there is a redline when it comes to gaza, he said he still supports israel. they will not try to take away any weapons. the wall street journal said, as is often the case, it is hard to tell what mr. biden means. aaron: american lines often turn pink when it comes to israel. joe biden has a profound commitment emotionally, politically to the idea, people of israel, security of israel, not so much of the netanyahu government. by the same token, he is

watching a few military disaster in gaza, where the israelis could clearly do more to facilitate that. and again, we are reaching a point. if tunnels and time works to their advantage, the israelis will continue to pursue their operation, and that will lead to a disproportionate number of palestinian casualties. i think we are in for a bad patch in u.s.-israeli relationships, but not in for a breakup. annmarie: talking about a come to jesus meeting with benjamin netanyahu. do you expect president biden to travel to israel? aaron: there has been talk about going to israel in order to talk over the heads of the israeli government, to address the knesset. that is a risky strategy. the reality is, this is not just the netanyahu government. 90% of the israeli public

believes either enough force is being applied by their government to eradicate hamas or they want to do more. i think the blood is up in israel, hostage families are pushing the other way for an agreement, but a major confrontation between the u.s. and israel in my judgment will not bring back those voters who are disillusioned and fleeing from joe biden. but it offers no way to de-escalate this conflict. that is the bind joe biden is in right now. lisa: it seems like, us took a hard line at the last minute of these negotiations. where is the pressure coming from, from the likes of cutter, saudi arabia, even iran, who wants to seem to de-escalate the conflict with the u.s.? aaron: in an existential conflict, when both israel and hamas believe their vital national interests are at stake,

and in fact for him us it is an existential thing. it is difficult for us to understand. the middle east is littered with the remnants of powers that believe they can impose their will on smaller ones. you will get an agreement when there is enough to urgency on the part of israel and hamas to achieve one. we have not reached that point yet. annmarie: when do you think we could see the united states inject not an agreement long term but a cease-fire? biden said that bill burns was back in the region. it has been over a week now. aaron: middle east negotiations, based on my experience, have two speeds. slow and slower. this will be driven in large part by the battlefield dynamic. when in fact israel and hamas believe that the risks of

continuing this conflict are outweighed by the prospects of a limited cease-fire in order to rearm for the next phase. jonathan: can i finish with a question regarding the united nations? what do you think the future of the you and is now? is it fit for purpose? aaron: as an organization? in limited ways, it can have an impact in peacekeeping, providing humanitarian assistance, but you and is only as strong as the five permanent members of the security council. in no other time have we had more fraud and divided great power competition, which fits china and russia together as a block, against the other three members. i don't expect much of the human -- the u.n. jonathan: thank you. aaron david miller for the

carnegie endowment for international peace. two different answers to the same question we've gotten in the last few hours. is this a split between the leaders or a convenient media narrative to serve the president domestically who is facing pressure from his own party? lisa: there we heard from aaron david miller that it is an actual split. earlier this morning, terry haynes said it is more of a media narrative. the question is what can president biden do if there is this split? we have seen the limits of the u.s.'s ability to control israeli politics. annmarie: at the beginning of his administration, he put some distance between him and the netanyahu government. but then he went to israel and gave benjamin netanyahu this bearhug. i am still struck by benny gantz coming to the united states. the prime minister said there is only 1 p.m. in israel. officials said that we didn't invite him but he still met with

them. jonathan: the president said that there were other ways to deal with the trauma caused by hamas in october, october 7. didn't offer the prescription. what are the other ways? lisa: i don't know. i think there is a real lack of the understanding of a cohesive plan that president biden is putting forward. yes, there is this delivering committed hearing aid. a lot of questions. jonathan: i would like more clarity from the president on those issues. coming up, aditya bhave. more still to,. -- to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: session lows on the s&p 500. negative by 0.4%. soccer on the nasdaq 100, down by 0.1%. nvidia down by 0.8% after the wild swings of friday's session. positive earlier by 1.5%. lisa: how many notes were there over the weekend where people were saying this is the signal of the beginning of the end of the magnificent seven? the splintering will continue in this will be the next downtrend

because people are getting nervous. we have said this before. there is this exhaustio coming in with this new trading activity. jonathan: cannot blame the bond market. yields were lower. this morning, little bit higher, up by three basis points. unchanged on the 10-year. the data this week will inform the federal reserve decision. the chairman wants more data. he will get more data and evidence through the week. i want to talk about another central decision, the boj in the next week. dollar-yen. we have had five days of yen strength. dollar-yen negative again. story after story suggesting they are ready to hike interest rates for the first time since 2007. lisa: the biggest surprise may not be whether or not they go,

but how much they go, whether they go to zero or 0.25%, indicate further retrenchment from policies. that might be the way the market is characterizing this next move. right now it seems like all but certainty that they will walk through the door. jonathan: what will they do with yield controls? i wonder. lisa: japanese policymakers not known for making dramatic waves, so unlikely they will completely up and they've done in the past decade, but people are wondering how far they can go in normalizing a policy that has been anything but for several decades. jonathan: there was a great write up for the team at bloomberg on the history of negative interest rates. there was this one snippet, the boj at the time, governor kuroda declined to say that they would do anything with negative interest rates, pushed back on

it, and then days later that is what they did. i'm not sure how much you can take from recent communication. lisa: it worked then. does it work to surprise the market in this way? they have moved slowly so they didn't cause a surge in yields. that is the key, my people have not moved around as much as you think. jonathan: the nikkei had a tough session overnight. top stories, boeing's problems continue. transportation secretary pete buttigieg saying that they will face enormous scrutiny over the door panel blowout. >> boeing needs to cooperate in every respect and the faa has given them 90 days for them to show how they will turn things around. that means a tremendous amount of rigor in terms of rigor tory issues. jonathan: the doj launching a

criminal investigation into the incident. boeing saying it cannot locate records of work performed on the door. delta airlines said it expects deliveries of the max 10 aircraft to be delayed until 2027 as boeing undergoes its criminal and regulatory investigations. i keep saying this every week. every time we hear about this story it gets worse. annmarie: i am struck by the fact that they cannot find the documentation. in the airline industry, everything is documented. that is embarrassing when you look at the alaska airlines flight, and a few hours ago, the 787 dreamliner, a technical fault leaving australia to new zealand. a dozen people in the hospital. it keeps on getting worse for this company. jonathan: it is story after story. lisa: the fact that there is a criminal investigation. alaska air came out and said in an event like this it is normal

for the department of justice to be investigating. we are cooperating and we do not believe we are the target of the investigation. so who is? jonathan: tiktok under fire, this time from president biden. he says he will sign a bill signed by the house that would force bytedance to divest it or risk removal from app stores. lawmakers have cited tiktok as a national security concern since the trump administration. bytedance denying report that it has been approached by buyers including the former activision ceo. the president campaigning on tiktok. that is the thing about the story. annmarie: a bit of hypocrisy. on government phones, if you work in the white house, you cannot have tiktok, but they have decided to put this video out on tiktok. this bill passed a key committee. it is set to go to a floor vote this wednesday. he is saying if it passes

congress, i will sign it. the other part of the story, the trump administration, the former president signaling he doesn't want to ban tiktok and we don't like facebook. a lot of this has to come down to potential donors that he is trying to get into his election campaign. lisa: either it is national security or it is not. about this, chips, electric vehicles. either it is national security or has to do with jobs and competition, question around who you want to put your money behind. it is two different things. they have to make it clear, otherwise, it will get caught up in all sorts of legal challenges. jonathan: this is a great example by why many in this country are not happy with the choices they will have this november. you have president donald trump's argument which makes no sense whatsoever.

if you sell tiktok to microsoft, guess what? microsoft will not be happy about that. annmarie: the fact is, the former president was talking about if it was banned, but if you sell it, tiktok still exists, just in a different form. tiktok says they just want to siphon off the data for u.s. users in the u.s., which they have been doing setting up with oracle. at the moment, that doesn't seem to be enough to assuage concerns of congress. the issue for the former president, it is jeff yas, this donor on the sidelines for him. he has a $30 billion stake in tiktok. president trump called him fantastic. jonathan: so this is about raising money. annmarie: this is about raising money and what is good for these donors.

you have to look at the warchest chest of trump versus biden right now. biden is outspending and out delivering that money coming in from donors. jonathan: that is the latest on tiktok. a parade of economic data coming up this morning. cpi, ppi, retail sales next week. u.s. inflation likely only pulling back slightly last month, emphasizing why the fed is in no rush to cut. traders continued to push bets on a june rate cut. joining us now is aditya bhave of bofa securities. i picked up a line in your research, resilience, not re-acceleration. how important is it not to see week celebration in the payrolls report on friday? aditya: very helpful. the cpi report is probably the most important one in my career on wall street. the details really matter here. the concern last month was reacceleration in services.

we are looking for 5/10 on services with oer coming back on mental inflation. that will alleviate some concerns but still too high for the fed. then we will get a better sense once we get the ppi data on thursday. jonathan: chairman pallas says he needs more evidence. is that one report or if you? aditya: more than one. jonathan: a few is three. couple is two. aditya: we have the first hike in june. four more cpi prints. lisa: you just said it is the most important cpi print in your career. the data has been revised, it's been messy, have not had any consistency. and meeting more than want to show a trend. why is this one data point so important? aditya: the moves in january were so outsized. several months where inflation was trending at the right

direction in a broad manner. then you had services we accelerate in february and then this issue witheoer inflation diverging significantly with mental inflation. if that persists, the fed cannot look through it. if it doesn't and oer moves back in the right direction, that would be helpful. lisa: we are asking about the dual mandate of the federal reserve, and it seemed they are not as concerned about inflation, continuing the economic growth that we have seen. when is the trigger point where they have to think about the no rate cut situation in 2024? aditya: i think they are concerned about inflation. there is a reasonable risk they are not able to cut through maybe december. it is not our base case. we have the first cuts starting in june. if you get more of these inflation numbers similar to january, those risks increase, which it's back to the importance of disinflation print. we need to know. how much was

one-off annmarie: how much concern about gasoline prices? aditya: prices are still relatively contained by recent historical standards, so they are more focused on the core. annmarie: if they were to be accelerate into the summer, isn't that concerning considering gasoline feed into everything else that the fed is looking at with inflation? aditya: the key issue with gas is sometimes it drives inflation expectations. relatively small component of consumer spending but has an outsized factor on expectations. lisa: we were just talking with andrew with citigroup, and he expects a southern turn midyear where the growth that we have seen tapers off and becomes true weakness. how likely do you see that given the consistency, if not acceleration, the resilience in the economic data? aditya: that is not our base case. we have seen significant

resilience on the consumer side and side. for the consumer, we think the first driver of strength is the labor market. the labor market is delivering strong gains in real income. another thing that is useful is airport traffic. that is a very discretionary form of spending. about 7% up consistently from last year's levels. that is inflation-adjusted. that comes with other forms of discretionary spending. people eat at restaurants, spent at hotels, entertainment. all of that makes us confident about the consumer. jonathan: the pre-8:00 drink? i don't understand that. annmarie: no rules at the airport. jonathan: i see that all the time at heathrow. pints at 7:00 in the morning. lisa: it is that much more prevalent in your mind when you

are traveling. vacation starts at the airport. jonathan: airport lounge with t.k. lisa: did you see that story in the wall street journal. some people want to get status. would you ever get upgraded and then kick your other person back? jonathan: ever hear what matt miller did? kicked his wife back, took his dog up, transatlantic flight. dog with him, wife and cats in the back. true story. forgive me for going on that little tangent. can we finish on discretionary spending? loads of credit card data. what is it telling you about retail sales this week? aditya: we don't have an official forecast on retail sales yet. it looks a little bit soft to be honest.

still a bounce back from january. january was distorted by seasonal factors. it looks a little soft but we are not concerned broadly about the resilience of the consumer for reasons i just said. jonathan: good to see you, aditya bhave. here is your bloomberg brief with yahaira jacquez. yahaira: it could be a bad omen for apple. warren buffett's berkshire hathaway sold over 1% of its stake in the company. the last time they sold the stock between 2019 and 2020, the selling persisted for several quarters. apple has been hit hard by negative news recently including a 2 billion-dollar antitrust fine, slumping sales in china, and the scrapping of its decade-long car project. bank of america plans to expand its commodity energy transition business, i move it says will require additional headcount. the bank is expanding its

presence in global gas and energy markets, plus in environmental products, as more clients look to reduce their carbon footprint. blackrock has identified energy transition as a negative force driving markets and economies -- mega force driving markets and economies. the proposed takeover faced pushback in washington, d.c. with senator elizabeth warren saying it would lead to higher hotel rates and urging the ftc to investigate. combining choices' 700 hotels with wyndham's would have created a giant in the world of budget hotels. jonathan: thank you. are we going to have a record for deals not completed? annmarie: there was a record last year and how aggressive the doj, ftc was regarding antitrust. every deal that come before washington, i have not seen

elizabeth warren say she doesn't want to look more into that or doesn't want the deal to go through. jonathan: is there a deal that they like in washington? lisa: it is very small. jonathan: next on the program, reddit preparing to bring a monster ipo to market. >> we have a tremendous amount of companies on the road, tremendous companies that we are working with at the moment to tap the public market. we are really excited about the prospects for 2024. jonathan: that conversation is next. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ hey you, with the small business... ...whoa... you've got all kinds of bright ideas, that your customers need to know about. constant contact makes it easy. with everything from managing your social posts, and events, to email and sms marketing. constant contact delivers all the tools you need

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the bond market is unchanged. under surveillance, reddit preparing to bring a monster ipo to market. >> we have a tremendous amount of companies on the road, companies we are working with at the moment to tap the public market. we are really excited about the prospects for 2024. volatility is what is going to impact the ipo markets. but for the short to medium-term, i think we will see some good ipo's. jonathan: reddit seeking to raise as much as $748 million, making it one of the biggest offerings this year, looking to operate 22 million shares priced between $31 and $34 each, raising enough mite to give it a valuation of $10 billion at the time. ed ludlow catches up with us. what is the difference between the landscape for reddit now versus where we were a few years ago? ed: kind of they miss the boat.

when they did the confidential filing in 21, that was a record year for the ipo market in this country. they are a great case study of what a number of private technology or social media companies went through, which is, even if you listed in the last 18 months or so, you face the prospect of raising funds in a down round give you more upside in the ipo, or you got the timing wrong. even at the higher end of the range, $34 a share, 5.4 billion-dollar valuation. fully diluted, $6.7 billion, but you are right to flagged their previous evaluation at $10 billion. it does leave you some upside especially if you have a retail investor interested in a name like this. jonathan: we talk in equity markets about reddit users, certain boards, their position on names. how do the right and users feel

about the so-called reddit ipo? ed: it is a love-hate situation. a percent of shares on offer will go to users or moderators. the pitch was sent out, look at this, you can get in on an ipo, on a sort of parity basis with the big wall street investors. this one is for you when only 8% of the offering. you will not be surprised to know that there is a wall street bets post that was voted where a number of users are advocating for the shares to be shorted as soon as they start trading. that is actually not a surprise. redditers have been very active against the platform in things they don't like. as you know full well, it extends beyond the reddit name. a lot of what we saw in the meme craze in 2021.

lisa: is it selling out, going from underdog to over dog, makes them not as enjoyed as much? ed: important to note, reddit is a classic advertising-based social media platform. the user base is highly engaged, not interested in the ads, interested in the specific topic they are debating and uploading. to your point on the markets, it is worth reminding the audience, reddit is quite small. 7 million or so active users is the data we have from the fourth quarter. revenue did grow for the full year two around $900 million, a loss of $90 million. but compare that to to the meta platforms, tiktok, which you were discussing earlier, it is very small. you have to ask, if it is going

to grow, what do advertisers see in it that they don't see in other platforms? lisa: is this cashing out when there is a window? other tech companies waiting to get an ipo done and this is it. will we see more of this type of activity? ed: that is why i said it's an interesting case study. reddit is almost like a starter gun. remember in september and we had the arm ipo, like a starting gun for other names that we had. there are other names waiting in the wing that will look at this reddit ipo and say, good timing, let's go with it. we talked about how they miss the boat in 2021 when reddit filed confidentially, so there is always investor appetite and enthusiasm. take that 8% of shares going to redditers. there is no lockup on those. they console on the day.

it is interesting because you put more emphasis on what is happening in the moment. everyone will say i'm a long-term shareholder, but actually i'm interested to see what day one trading looks like, what the sentiment is. there is a lot of doubt about its ability to grow and become profitable irrespective of what it does for confidence and sentiment for a u.s. technology ipo window the first half of the year. annmarie: looking at tiktok, the house looking to pass legislation. when are you looking at in the tech world in san francisco? ed: i'm looking at who buys tiktok. if you consider the bill goes through and the only way for the platform to continue operating in this country is for it to be sold. who buys it? let's take the hypothetical of microsoft. do we think meta would allow that to happen, indeed anyone else? there is an antitrust question with that. there is one thing that we covered on bloomberg technology

that people don't talk about, this year user base in america. a lot of people really like it. it is positioned at the center of this presidential race in november. i find interesting, because there are people that are of voting age and love it. i don't want the risk of it ever leaving my smartphone. jonathan: i wonder if we get the article coming back. great to catch up with you, ed ludlow. he will walk you through these issues later on this morning on bloomberg technology. tomorrow, lena richardson of adp, jp morgan, steve richutio. lisa: we also just heard how it is not likely but it is looking more like a possibility given some of the strong data. annmarie: steve's big point is

that he is looking more toward fiscal policy rather than monetary policy. jonathan: no cuts. after friday's data, that pushes back the conversation a little bit. a setback for them. lisa: we are still talking north of 200,000 jobs. it is not nothing. jonathan: it is just not 350. lisa: is that the threshold? jonathan: tomorrow, bramo gets an extra hour of sleep. less grumpy? lisa: isn't that obvious? >> at the aussie open in january with a dominant display to the round of 16. after going behind in the opener, the polish superstar

went on a tear, taking 11 of the last 12 games of the match. don't forget, tennis channel's daily live coverage as the air at 1:00 eastern. how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now.

her uncle's unhappy. you've got more options i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we got him under a new plan. but then they unexpectedly unraveled their "price lock" guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the "un-carrier". you sing about "price lock" on those commercials. "the price lock, the price lock..." so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

>> they takei i finally feeling the effects of gravity. a very busy week. the countdowns the open starts down -- now. >> this is bloomberg open with jonathan ferro.