>> welcome to quebec australia.

markets have just come online. grace we are getting down to asia's major trading opens. the rally on wall street as traders look ahead to the latest inflation print for clues on where the fed reserve will go next. quick satilla to assets. bitcoin has tended to go for the first time in the debt after disappointing chinese demand. >> and president biden lays out his budget plans as he gives out for reelection battle with donald trump. >> let's look at the set up as we get into some trading here in australia. looking for a pretty mixed opening across the region. a cautious session on wall street.

and in inflation data. we are seeing pretty flat trading here in sydney. we are watching some of the commentary from the rba this morning. talking about some of the caution. quite a bit of caution across this area. even across asia. taking a look at the equity session. we did have the recession for australian stocks in a year ahead of the u.s. cpi. that biggest loss all year potentially set to extend into the tuesday session as well.

taking a look at how we are setting up when it comes to japan and the korean markets around the region. some downside there for new zealand. a pretty difficult session for japan equities. nikkei futures up by a quarter of 1%. looking at muted but further declines. the two equity benchmarks in japan something more than 2% on monday amidst these loan speculations about the time. we are also seeing a little bit of dollar weakness playing into yen strength there. finally, quite a lot of concern building in the chinese demand. we are seeing them modestly higher at the moment. >> and just listening to some of

the keywords. it is modest. you have futures here come online. we have equities moving in a little bit lower. it is that count down to the u.s. inflation data. we are expecting it to be pretty far above the fed's target. around 3%. we were at about 9% around a year ago. it can really be some of those were seasonal trends. if you take a look at what we are expecting in this graph, take a look at some of the

seasonal trends coming up on the january report. particularly around gasoline and high petrol prices. that is likely to persist as well. we'll be really want to know is what this means for the fed and if this would be the inflation in which jay powell turns friendly dovish. probably not. a bit more volatility comes through as well. that has been one of the hallmarks of the market dynamics we have seen so far this year. we have market concentration looking at perhaps even more extreme levels. i think we have one just taking a look at that trading level that we see for chip stocks relative to the s&p 500. investors just piling to names like nvidia.

he just put out a note saying this rash leads to momentum stocks has typically been followed by correction when it occurred in the past. that is one of the calls. we expect some sort of pullback? >> we have been seeing signs about that potentially playing out from the friday session. what happens with nvidia after a piggly -- pretty big reversal. adjacent to that, it will be very interesting to see if this is the peak of these bubble stocks. is it going to be followed in previous months by yet another record high as opposed to the bursting of the bubble? who can tell?

bank of america says they see little evidence to support the concerns on wall street. they say the market has legs. this started last year. as sharp as it has been, that doesn't reflect conditions we have seen in previous cycles. really talking about the idea that sentiment levels are mutual. not bullish compared to what we saw in 1999. there was strong earnings and the resilient economy. and more room for gains. >> two different sides of the coin. let's get more with mark cranfield. we can get to the fed inflation in just a moment. you have bank of america saying the market has legs.

>> i think if you want to pinpoint the biggest single risk to the u.s. equity market right now, it is nvidia. the reason for that is not just the fact that this is volatile but as bloomberg had been writing this week, what we see is a large number of people selling volatility on the u.s. markets and the numbers involved in that are very large. that tells you people have assumed a reasonable amount of confidence that the market is only going one way. all of this will go on regardless. nvidia has become the biggest way to stock in the united states.

that means there is a tremendous amount of money involved in one particular stock. it is worth more than 2 trillion u.s. dollars. it tells you it is a bit like the tail wagging the dog. it has become such an enormous part of the market. withdraw quickly from a single in like that. where the consequence is spread out very quickly. we need to be very aware of what is happening in that particular nation. just been -- the magnificent seven group as it is not but there is a particular stock out there. people will be paying undue attention to that particular name to see whether or not cracks are appearing in the u.s. market. the number of people have a soul volatility as well. it may not happen. it doesn't always mean you will immediately hit the buffers in the market. but it has certainly created the

biggest risk to the u.s. market in the short term. i we need is one piece of u.s. data that is way out of line. suddenly everybody turns bearish at the same time. we may go very smoothly through the cpi. it is not surprising that people are little bit weary on age. at this stage with the market so extended, it would not need to much to reverse it. >> it is interesting. along with the -- the liquidation of fast money, they also picked up the market laggards. this time is -- does that mean we will see more breath in this rally? >> to get that, you probably need the market to come down first. the driver in the market has been to concentrated in a few lanes.

you will only probably get a nice broadening of the market after there has been a correction in the first place. it is unlikely to happen at this level. you are not going to get people rotating it into other parts of the market. all they will be doing is is looking to extend ones that have been happening or get into the sidelines to lock in some money. the fact that we are coming toward the end of the first quarter is so significant. it is the japanese financial year-end as well. we saw a decent question in the market in the next few weeks. quick see your point. we are expecting u.s. inflation -- this could be something that is really out of line. this could be a trigger for some sort of correction. how outside of the estimate with that really need to be?

christ we probably need to see the top side of something like 0.3 or 0.4 higher than the expectation. it would need to be a pretty big job. we don't expect anything there. nobody is forecasting any change in policy there. we have people pricing in the right because for later this year. june is the likely candidate for the first cut. we can easily get a situation where is strong cpi number today ends up taking away june and july. we did hear from some of the fed speakers. some people even say one cut is sufficient. you can see the disconnect. the market and the fed are not completely in line.

if you potentially get worse if we get a very strong cpi number. >> do you think we are sort of kicking around all of this -- you have seen gold which is suddenly a performing coincident records. japan hitting new records. even the pound has been doing unseasonably well. do you think there is something deeper going on beyond what we see across the u.s. stock rally? >>, think you can through the ball into the same category. bubbles appear. the only time you know about them is afterwards when they have burst. that is the only time you can be sure there was a bubble. imagine cryptocurrencies. that is an obvious case. central banks are behind the binds.

less of a risk of bubbles going on there. the most a stream case at the moment is the end. that we could reverse quite quickly if the bank of japan does move to tighten policy. they are going to be gradual. the end will probably not by a huge amount. but certainly if you look at something like the cryptocurrencies which is probably in parallel to what you are seeing in the tech sector in the u.s. market especially. it may will be the case that if we see a dramatic reversal in u.s. tech, cryptocurrencies may not be far behind. but in terms of an overall bubble across financial markets, we are probably not looking at anything with the central banks moving toward an era when they could be lowering interest rates. if we go toward the early stages of the rate hiking cycle in the united states. that would be a different story.

but we are not. we are now looking toward a time when the fed, ecb and other central banks are going to be lowering interest rates. that is a better backdrop. quick that was marked in singapore this morning. you can follow more of the story. all of the day's trading action on this live for them. get the market run down in one click. commentary and analysis from bloomberg expert editors. you can see exactly what is affecting your investments at any point in time. president biden lays out second term vision after -- ahead of a rematch with donald trump. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> president biden has laid out his second term vision to give more services and middle-class tax breaks. eric this is purely theoretical. does this budget have any chance of being passed into law? >> there are some parts of it that will be. there was a debt ceiling agreement in congress and the president last year. those caps are stuck there are a lot of goodies for pre-k education. it just won't be passed by this republican house. it is all paid for by the wealthy. the capital gains tax.

this is really just dead on arrival in congress right now but it is something that could come back. clicks on that reelection point of view, this is something that is clearly designed to try to entice voters. is the budget actually fiscally responsible? >> it brings the u.s. total debt up. it is a very large increase. an aging population by higher interest rates. the president claims it has. -- $3 trillion less in deficits. that is mostly do these tax increases. republicans are out there saying they have the alternative plan.

they plan doesn't really get the detail. there is really no chance of reining in the deficit because both parties are only talking about tax increases on the rich. clicks what about the defense department share of the budget? is that something that could get more bipartisan support here? >> overall, the defense is 800 billion dollars. interestingly there is a big increase for trying to fondle -- funnel more money to taiwan. that type of stalled emergency bill that is before the house right now.

this is all about looking at boosting submarines in addition to try to keep china in czechia. i think those would not only get strong support from republicans in congress but we may even see more money in that direction. >> that was erik wasson in d.c.. u.s. intelligence agencies believe the deadlock in ukraine is shifting momentum in the war toward russia. speaking at an annual presentation this a muska has been in a continual -- they benefit from uncertainty over future military aid for ukraine from the u.s. and its allies. china is criticizing the indian prime minister over a time of that will give india's troops easy access to areas close to a disputed border between the two countries.

beijing has lost eight of the medical test over the development. an area claims as its own. the german chancellor is supporting deeper ties with southeast asian countries in a bid to diversify trade relations. separate talks in berlin this week. they say it is a coordinated push to reduce germany's demand on vision. china was germany's most important trading partner in 2023 for the eighth consecutive year. we will have more on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> one year after the silicon

valley bank collapsed, they are moving on. we spoke with ed ludlow and carolyn hyde. clicks the net result has been minimal to be honest. people have moved on. they have other banking services. some people involved in silicon valley bank are still around, look into other firms and life goes on. the valley has adjusted. >> you noted there are other sources of banking. it brought names like victory, some sort of alternative lending action. if there was a lesson learned, it was the high concentration. you had your banking there are probably some debt there as well . it was often the first place you could get a check. is that concentration risk still there?

>> the risk of silicon valley bank had to be interest rate speculation. i want to separate irresponsible actions on their part on the interest rate side. from what the business was. i think the business was a solid business. i don't think it has changed dramatically. i don't know if there is as much concentration but we don't worry about that too much. >> what has been interesting is perhaps there was a moment of realization in a time of crisis -- we did you depend on. that competition faded a little

bit as the economy turned direction. more broadly, hasn't brought you more business by the fact that you able -- you were able to stick your neck out early? >> that was what was most disappointing about the community for me. i caught a number of leading venture capital firms. it is a temporary crisis. i did not get a lot of support. we would support all of them. i think every firm should have done that. do you like to talk about how they help their portfolio companies. when speaking with bloomberg technology there. taking a look at one of the

asset classes we are tracking this morning. that is cryptocurrency prices here. you can see bitcoin is trading above 72,000. we are up here for a six straight day. you can see over of around 17%. it really is off the backs of those big inflows we are seeing into spot bitcoin etf's in the u.s.. there is really not enough coin to meet that supply. that is the state of play for crypto there. we will have more to come on daybreak austr when i was your age, we never had anything like this. what? wifi? wifi that works all over the house, even the basement. the basement. so i can finally throw that party... and invite shannon barnes. dream do come true. xfinity gives you reliable wifi with wall-to-wall coverage

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>> taking a look here this

survey results that have come out earlier this morning. what has been found in this reading is that bank of japan watches a slim majority of those still expecting the end of negative rates to come in april but march bets are continuing to grow as well even though just a couple of months ago they were seen as a very outside risk. let's get more on this now with paul jackson in tokyo. we have certainly had lots of boj officials. a they live meeting. paul: oh yeah, absolutely this is a live meeting that is very close. this shows us the baseline scenario among economists is still april. but the case for march is growing by the day. we saw 30% of economists suggesting that the boj would

move in march. so this reflects this kind of momentum towards the idea that the boj will move early in march. just for comparison, if you look at overnight swaps in markets, you will see that they are pricing in about a two thirds chance of a march move. so, yeah, things are gathering -- getting very tight to call. we have more data coming in this week on wages. that is coming in on friday. this is the result of the annual pay deals between companies and unions. last year the initial tally was 3.8%. so we are definitely going to need a figure bigger than 3.8%. our survey showed that economists are expecting the figures to be 4.1%. so if we get into the 4% range i think there is speculation that

the boj will move in march will get even frostier. haidi: how volatile is that wages data? the medium because we need at least 3.8% to proceed. and the route to consumption, or we seeing strength there? paul: i think those economists who think the boj will wait until april, with even some outliers saying later than that, they say the boj will want to look at, first of all, some updated tallies of the wage results. and then also see how these wages flow into consumption and prices over the next few months. but i think central banks around the world are cognizant that when you have a window of opportunity to do something, it is generally best to jump

through when you have that chance. haidi: paul jackson there with the latest on boj expectations. taking a look at iron ore. we have been talking about bubbles across other asset classes but certainly industrial metals is not one of them, particularly iron ore at the moment. seeing some upside when it comes to singapore traded prices come up about .2%. that was after a slump of more than 7% under the $110 a ton mark. this is largely a china story but also as we wrapped up national people's congress, a distinct lack of detail as to expectations for stimulus and how they really plan to get to that around 5% target. we are also seeing a little bit of upside when it comes to new york traded crude, waiting for the report of u.s. inflation numbers. let's get more on the iron ore dynamic with paul allen joining

us from melbourne. is this entirely down to the china story? paul: i think it would be probably right there. to put this into context, stockpiles of iron ore are at their highest level in about a year. and at the same time steelmaking input has plunged by about 25% when you take a look at compare that to early january. so yesterday as you mentioned the national people's congress wrapped up and there was very little there to support china's struggling property market. construction demand is lackluster and it looks like it will continue to be that way for some time. of course the government has really cracked down on property debt too that has been going on

for about a year. annabelle: it is pretty hard to even look at something this optimistic for iron ore prices when you go even over the longer term as well. paul-alain: yeah. we've been talking to analysts quite often as i am sure you are aware and they see a bit of a shaky outlook. there are questions over whether or not china can actually reach its 5% growth targets or not. and investors are quite speculative that they are not seeing china reach those targets just yet. something that is important to note as well is analysts have been pointing out that the iron ore project in guinea, that is a project run by rio tinto and one of the largest untapped iron ore deposits in the world. and that is expected to come online in 2026.

so, that will have an impact on the longer-term outlook too. annabelle: that was our metals and mining reporter paul allen hunt. it is about china's slowing economy and that is starting to bite for the middle class. last year domestic p&l production plunged to half of what it was just four years ago. and as stephen engle found out, many of china's shoppers are now choosing leisure over luxury. stephen: the 2010 chinese movie pno in a factory depicts just how much a piano was an aspirational goal of chinese households in the early 1990's. today, piano stores across china look like this, devoid of customers. once a status symbol to own,

domestic p&l production last year plunged to half of what it was just four years ago. the central government desperately wants -- >> we will practice frugality and reject extravagance. stephen: the average chinese middle-class consumer can be a big spender. but we also know that households are feeling the pinch from a slowing economy, exacerbated by falling home prices and a stock market rout. now, after the mall era so feel -- chinese households became big savers. right now with the economy suffering, they are hitting the pause button on big-ticket nonessential purchases. >> domestic economy is not in a good position for the economy -- consumers to splurge. the government cannot force people to cheer up and spend. stephen: as we saw with record travel and box office numbers,

many of today's young adults faced with diminishing job prospects and slimming while it's are choosing leisure over luxury. >> during the pandemic people realized how close we can be leaving this world for paradise. it doesn't matter how many materials you have but rather your experiences. stephen: is a new phenomenon for sure for newlyweds, previously accustomed to having at least a new home by the time they marry. >> we were planning to get married and that would mean we have to prepare for getting property in raising kids. we need to be more putin. >> we just got married and i hope we can go through the hardship together. >> it cannot be just hardship. stephen: after decades of runaway growth there is a powerful sense of unease in beijing. and while big-ticket items sales

are slowing amid less than reassuring policy, there is still the less than universal need just to be heard. stephen engle. haidi: we are going to talk about why they think both countries -- ♪

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-item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh haidi: one of the sectors in focus is the ev market which accounted for 60% of global sales in the past year. beijing is looking to cement his leadership in the sector although we see sales slowing this year. what is the catalyst behind the expected slowdown? siyi: thanks. china's ev market is still growing. last year we saw 8 million and we expect the number to grow to under 10 million this year. having said that it means year-over-year growth is slowing

down. what happened in the chinese ev market is the market pass to be on the stage of early adoption and has transitioned to mass-market adoption. and we see a lack of mass-market affordable models combined with tougher economic condition and saturation in wealthy regions that together will probably lead to a slowdown in the ev demand growth this year. we expect to register 20% growth year-over-year. annabelle: how are automakers responding to those issues in the market in turn? siyi: thanks. definitely increased competition and sluggish demand are pushing automakers really to think of ways to increase their sales. one of the strategies they took is to lower the price of their electric vehicles. we see since the beginning of

february a number of electric vehicle manufacturers including byd have slashed their ev price is some 10 to 20%, bringing the more affordable models to consumers. what this property -- there is a cap yacht in terms of how they can manage the cost rate action internally and whether this price war continues. so we do expect there are tailwinds for ev manufacturers as the commodity prices for key battery metals is still in a low range, which is good news for manufacturing as they are trying to win the cost for batteries. haidi: when it comes to solar energy more broadly, particularly when you are talking about solar panels, we are seeing this game of chicken, competitors driving prices lower and lower.

an overwhelming amount of supply. is this likely to be repeated across the ev space? siyi: certainly. we already see more consolidation and exit in the ev space this year. we expect that trend to continue in 2024 and 2025. so we do see that a couple ev brands that are in pole position have high-margin or a large portfolio and conflicts their ev lineup while they still sell the high-margin models. they can afford more cost reductions. we are also seeing ev manufacturers in order to maintain their market share, looking for new markets such as emerging markets like thailand and latin america, to find places where they can absorb that new demand. annabelle: that was bnef electric vehicle senior associate siyi hi there.

our next guest has lowered his forecast but sees pottle is -- let's discuss with nikhil bhandari, managing director and head of apac natural resources and clean energy research at goldman sachs. we just heard some headwinds facing the ev sector air in terms of slowing demand. there is perhaps an oversupply, cost competition as well. is there anything you think with ev batteries that could help mitigate that weaker path? nikhil: thank you for having me. i will come to your question shortly but let me provide some context. we publish our global report calling the light at the end of the tunnel. the title reflects our view that ev penetration is going to be a little slower than before anticipated, driven by the profitability concerns of the ev makers given the ongoing price competition.

and also because subsidies have been trading out of the european markets. the light at the end of the tunnel refers to the commodity price and the regulations. now, our out of consensus call on a collapse in the battery metal prices have indeed come true. in particular lithium which has fallen 80% from the top. combine that with the ongoing innovation in the battery structure, especially packaging, we are expecting a 40% decline in the battery price between 2023 and 2025, to about $90 per kilowatt hour. so to address your question, we do expect battery prices to fall rapidly at about $90 per kilowatt hour next year. we expect ev's to become competitive with internal combustion engine cars in certain markets by the end of next year. now, the second support will still come from regulation, especially in the european market where we expect further tightening in regulations next

year leading to a forced increase in the ev mix. combine the two, we're still expecting a four-time increase in ev sales by 2030, but a relatively slower growth at about 21%. annabelle: you mentioned some different geographical differences between the europe, asia, the u.s. out of those dynamics play into your stock picks? nikhil: sure. for investors, there are still overcapacity concerns in the china battery industry. and as such, we are more focused on the ex-china market to pick up our buy-rated names. in particular we are expecting it to be relatively tighter through 2026. this is because slowdown in demand growth has been offset outside china by continuous delay in the new capacity

expansion and the ramp up's. we're focused on looking on the korean battery makers, u.s. battery makers, or chinese battery makers with more aggressive international expansion plans in terms of our stockpicking. on the contrary when you're looking at some battery materials, the old capacity issues are a lot more broad-based. cathodes, electrolytes, so we are cautioning investors on those spaces and focus on the battery makers. haidi: for investors, doing billing profitability and competition and a huge oversight -- oversupply are not good things. but is there an argument that having more chinese supply is going to get us there faster? nikhil: in certain markets that

is correct. the supply in china will have some spillover impact, especially the mass-market category. the oversupply is more iron-based batteries. the europe market has a good mix of the smaller cars that are less affected than range anxiety and open to the lfp market. that part of the market will have some help from the chinese exports in order to resolve the china market. but where we have the inflation reduction act, on top of that the u.s. market is a larger car heavy market, distance traveled that much longer. the fergus -- the number of suppliers providing batteries is still more limited and the market will be relatively tighter. but to answer your question, you

surplus of china it will have some support for the european market in terms of electrification, especially for the small car category. haidi: how effective are tariff barriers? nikhil: sorry, can you repeat your question? haidi: how effective are tariff barriers? nikhil: if you look at the u.s. market, the tax credits provided to onshore battery manufacturers is nearly 30% of the esb of the battery. together with that, there are over 10% import tariffs in importing batteries from china. combining the two, we think the onshore battery makers is more superior even after accounting for the faster decline in the battery prices in the china market. when you look at the european market there is very limited import tariffs. there is very limited onshore battery making incentives. so the price of the chinese that

are is are more competitive compared to the batteries manufactured locally in that region. annabelle: that was nikhil bhandari, head of apac natural resources and clean energy research at goldman sachs. just a couple data points to note, we just had producer price inflation numbers dropping for japan. over the month of february we saw a pickup for the reading year on year 6%, higher than the estimate for .5%. and a pickup from the reading prior. month on month also be economist forecasts, .2%. the survey had been for .1%. again, it is that story of inflation that is picking up in japan. how likely we are to see price pressures in place. inflation would trend lower towards the end of the year but a lot of focus on whether we are going to see any sort of policy

shift from the boj at its march meeting next week. we will have more ahead on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: some of the latest corporate stories we're tracking. shares rallying after reporting a spike in bookings attributed

to its cloud computing business. revenue for the division jumped 25% to $5.1 billion in the latest quarter. oracle is focused on expanding its cloud infrastructure business to compete with the likes of amazon, microsoft, and alphabet. nomura holdings is reorganizing its u.s. investment management efforts under new leadership in a bid to expand into private credit. according to a statement seen by bloomberg, the new unit is called nomura capital management and will house the first existing high-yield bond strategy and private credit investments. the new unit's ceo says he will look for growth organically and through acquisitions. haidi: take a look at how we are tracking of course the big event risk on the horizon watching for the u.s. inflation data. the yields are tracking in the

same direction in the run-up to the key cpi report which will be the latest data piece in terms of giving us a better idea of the direction, scope, magnitude, and timing of what the fed does next. we are seeing a little bit of a move when it comes to the bloomberg dollar index. mostly stronger against most g10 peers. the yen still holding firm on these expectations of potentially a bank of japan move there. that tuesday u.s. cpi data is seen as the biggest influence when it comes to the outlook for policy. we are seeing a rise previously when it comes to the dollar index for the first day in seven days. we also did get u.s. consumer expectations for inflation climbing in february as well. in the next hour we will get a global outlook. ubs global is with us ahead of the inflation print. ♪

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>> this is "daybreak: asia." we are counting down to asia's major market opens. there is one game, the u.s. inflation print. is this the one that powell will want to see to turn firmly dovish? you still have expectations that are building around the boj. >> one big central bank kind of game. the boj is part of it. the yen --it all comes down to wage growth. we want a number of at least 3.8% for that not to derail expectations particularly at the open. >> it has been