>> welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: australia." i am haidi stroud-watts and

sydney were marketed just come online. annabelle: we are counting down to is your major trading opens in the top stories this era. it investors bracing for a week dominated by big central-bank decisions including a fed to call ted to reveal whether policymakers remain on track for three rate cuts this year. haidi: japanese preparing for the boj rate cut, the first since 2007 with inflation holding your the central-bank target. annabelle: australia's reserve bank why they expected to hold rates at a 12 year high while maintaining a hawkish buy against price pressures. haidi: it is all about central banks policy, almost half of the global economy including six out of the 10 the most traded currencies. it japanese media reporting that the boj is had to raise its policy rate when it's meeting ends on tuesday by guiding short-term interest rates to a

range of 0% to 0.1 percent, so that will be left out, boo-boo big economic squeeze the boj may wait until july to end negative rates and its yield curve control program. to learn more about the fed resolve to ease we will went into the meeting on wednesday with the u.s. economy remaining robust. policymakers in indonesia, australia with the rba expecting to stay on hold and maintain hawkish bias amid uncertainty that is pressures in this economy have been fully tamed. it will be a busy week for investors and markets globally particularly in this part of the world with so much of the focus on the boj. take a look as we kick off rba decision we, asx 200 coming online pretty flat at the moment. it are expecting caution given how event heavy this week is proving to be an the aussie dollar unchanged at .6560.

also some of the trading pairs into focus will be the likes of the yen and take a look at these expectations being set for japan , so much focus has been on those wage negotiations and they just blew it out of the park, and that is signaling that the path is clear for the bank of japan to move if it decides to this week. the blowout wage result could spur the boj march rate increase, and that has huge implications when it comes to the yen, and how much that will feed through to not the key factor but certainly one of the key factors in what we are seeing in this equity rally as well. nikkei futures looking perky. annabelle: it is such a pivotal week for central banks, and chief among them is the fed, and we have got the decision in the

days ahead, but this is the outlook we have u.s. futures just coming online, fairly range bound so far, and that also points to the level of wait-and-see mode we can expect over the coming days. the session on friday was funny because we had the triple witc hing, so there were a lot of derivatives tied to stock index options, futures all really maturing, so you have got to roll over existing positions, start new ones, that's get the picture. coming online this morning, and the question is whether we can continue the assent we have had over the course of this year. that will be tested. if we turn hawkish, could happen of the back of the hotter than expected inflation lately. haidi: let's get a more of the central-bank decisions and bring in our chief nor the -- in asia correspondent stephen engle and garfield reynolds.

i will start off with you, steve. there are higher expectations from the boj after those wage increase numbers on friday. >> i would not say there is palpable excitement for the raising of borrowing costs, but again it is something that has been primed to have for quite some time now, and governor ueda has been considering all of the indicators. some would say he would wait until the april quarterly economic report, but all indications we got from him in january, the last time the policy board meant was there was still a little bit of caution i want to do wait-and-see if this was a sustainable virtuous cycle of inflation that is backed by those wage gains that you talked about, and the latest numbers that we got on friday from the federation of trade unions

essentially blew the numbers out of the park, 5.28% average securing deals for those companies represented by those trade unions, which is a much higher than what we saw a year ago at three point 8%, which was already the biggest set of wage gains in 30 years. so the numbers i guess you could say would bolster the case for the first time the boj to exit negative rates in 17 years, but there are still a number of different economists who say why not buy a little more time in a way for the economic report in april. doesn't matter between mid-march and late april 2 hike? all the major news media over the weekend whether it is the nikkei or kyoto news all essentially reporting it as fact that tomorrow governor ueda will decide to end negative rates.

annabelle: just talk us through -- give us a sense really of the candidate saying we need more time. how big is that and how prominent have those voices been? sure more context on that. >> yeah, again some economists including berber intelligence -- bloomberg intelligence indicating that was not not the time. we will have a guest coming on who says now is not necessarily the time, and we have to see what else comes with it, with the scrapping of the yield curve control completely, whether there will be scrapping of the policy of buying etf's that was a backstop to the equity market, but the equity market at 30,000 plus as recently as march 7, over 40,000. do they need to be continuing to purchase exchange traded funds

and also jgb's, another indication of whether ueda wants to send a signal to the market that they are going to continue an accommodative policy despite exiting negative rates. one way to do that would be to continue with the jgb purchases. haidi: i suppose the other question is what is going to of bigger impact, what the boj does or what the fed does when it comes to things like how we see fx markets trade? >> the indications are that it is moving more toward the fed as being the one that will have a major influence. dollar-yen volatility rates lower now than they were going into the december and july 2023 boj meetings. there were two meetings where there were strong expectations

the boj would make moves, which they did in july and did not in december. there is a sense that perhaps they yen declines will be limited because to authorities made it clear that they would react to that. they have had a lot of success in jawboning the yen back up and the threat of intervention is there, and if ueda does actually oversee an end the negative rates that is been fairly well played right now. there with the likelihood he would be dovish in his delivery of that, and by the same token it is hard to get too excited about the potential for a stronger yen when the following day you were going to get the fed decision, and there are very strong expectations that either the fed will boosted the dot plot or endorse the increase in

yields either way by signaling that it is still a fair way away from raising rates, and it needs a much better data before it can cut rates, and when it does cut rates it is likely to do so in a very measured stance, so i think tha th -- that the yen is signaling it is not expecting much either the bank of japan, so the ball is in the fed's courts. annabelle: between the boj in the fed the result of the rba decision this week as well, so may be hard for it to stand out on the global scale, but what are we expecting? >> we are expecting very little change at all from the rba. at one of the concerns of this week as we think we know what all of the central banks are going to do, and especially markets think they know.

central-bank policy moved to a different drum than do markets. the rba toned down its hawkish bias but kept it. if there was some expectation that it would go fully neutral. on the one hand to the australian did it would argue more toward the idea they could go neutral, but the rba is expected to be quite concerned at the stickiness in u.s. inflation in particular, so that makes it extremely unlikely they will change their policy settings, so they are expected to hold interest rates at their current high end signal they are willing to hike again if the data requires it. annabelle: that was stephen engle and garfield reynolds in sydney. china's economy and focus as we look ahead to its monthly data dump in the race to hit

beijing's ambitions 5% growth target. we will have a preview coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: -- annabelle: taking a look at different risk assets as we await the biggest week of central-bank decisions over the course of 2023 so far.

it points to the level of uncertainty, a lot of traders think they know where they are going this week, but you want to wait and see for the level of certainty, but the fed, boj amongst the big headliners, rba in this part of the world as well. the focus is interesting as well. let's get more perspective with a chief economist joining us this morning. looking big picture, if you take us back to a few months, a year ago, opposed to the spike in inflation central banks were syncronized. everyone was moving to tame price pressures. now it seems like we are getting a lot less nsync -- in sync. >> every central bank is looking at its own situation and trying to balance issues with that is a macro stability, but also supporting growth. we are still recovering from the

pandemic and asia, and a recovery has been thoroughly revised and we think it will continue to be robust. central banks in asia have generally been holding tight this year, early this year. i think they are waiting to see the fed to move first before easing further. annabelle: and i think you point to the most consequential of decisions is what the fed does this week, think inflation data coming in harder than expected, cpi and ppi. it do you think that shifts the messaging that we get this week from jay powell? >> we are not sure. we expect inflation to broadly continue moderating and for the fed to start at some point to ease. at the interest rate decisions of the fed are important for asia. we have done some modeling work or we expect that if inflation were .5 of 1% higher this year

at about the u.s. and european central bank did not lower interest rates this year that this would probably increase inflation in asia by about 0.15% points. it also would support the growth of modesty because it would lead to depreciations that would help export recovery from the region. annabelle: -- haidi: albert what do you see is the risk of geopolitical uncertainty this year in terms of potentially seeing upside spikes and inflation? >> there are a lot of conflicts globally and that geopolitical tension with the u.s. and china, and there are risk factors. it we know the description in the red sea affected shipping costs that affected asia-european trade, and that could have increased inflation up 0.2 percentage points into the region, and if it continues

into the euro does effects could increase mx edit something like 0.4% on inflation, which is meaningful. i think in an election year in the u.s. and given the positive steps taken at last year's meeting between president jean -- xi and president biden that we expect tensions to ease. the relationship is more constructive and i do not think the biden administration wants to pick another fight and at that escalate in a way, so we are very hopeful that things will get back on track. annabelle: do you think there is a risk of a growing stagflationary environment that is been highlighted by bank of america, for instance? in the u.s. and in other major economies? >> there was a lot of talk about stagflation in china because there is negative inflationary,

but that was largely due to food price and energy price reductions, and we still think core inflation as a remain positive, and we think inflation in china will be above 1% this year and going forward. i think stagflation fears are a bit overdone. everyone is trying to manage this turn of allowing inflation to bottom out and for monetary policy to become more accommodative. haidi: is the china decoupling threat overdone when you take a look at how trade is faring at the moment? >> well, it is a bit hard to say. we have seen a decline of fdi into china. the data shows a sharp decline that actually utilized fdi capital it and reduction is much

more modest from 8% to a historic peak in 2022, and we see a decline 8% of fdi into strategic sectors, which are related to concerns and restrictions in the future. some of that is moving to other parts of asia, especially southeast asia, and there are many sectors in china like some of the high tech manufacturing and some of the market seeking fdi there continues to be very resilient in china as well. haidi: are you convinced the policymakers in beijing can hit that around 5% target? can they do it without significant stimulus? and is this the right strategic path to follow if we are talking about a longer term slowdown? >> we think of 5% target growth this may be a little bit

optimistic. at the party were conference, they did announce some stimulus measures, which have led us to be more bullish on chinese growth, but still we see growth moderating relative to last year , and there was a lot of downside or risk related to how they deal with the property sector. they are trying to balance a very difficult lending where on the one hand they need to unwind some of the balances are the real estate investment infrastructure investment in certain parts of the country. at the same time they do not want to see the economy collapse and consumer and investor confidence collapse, so that is the process they are trying to manage. i think of the stimulus measures they have announced are appropriate. they could reserve requirements, mortgage rates are bit -- a bit.

they have restrictions to encourage the property sector. at the same time they are not bailing out big developers. they are trying to be disciplined in the types of things they continue to support while letting the sector with josh -- adjust. there is just a huge over construction of housing and now they have unwind that housing. the population is now actually declining, so some cities are growing, and some cities are shrinking, so to really keep growth on track both public and private sector investment in the real estate market need to become smarter and define the areas where there is a market and to be restructuring or renovating older units that are unlikely to find demand. annabelle: there are a lot of parallels to we monitored be doing -- between china and

japan's economy. the boj is also in focus, could be the first time we see a hike since 2007, but to get think editions are strong enough to warrant that this meeting? >> we did not try to predict with the central banks will do, but i think governor await up -- ueda has signal a desire to get away from negative interest rates and the numbers are supportive of that. many people in japan went to see if those wage increases get taken up by the smaller firms, what we still account for 70% of employment and whether or not they way to get more reassurance, i think we will see, but that is certainly the direction. at the same time governor ueda is signaling monetary policy will still be accommodative in japan, because we are expecting growth to moderate this year in the face of subdued export demand and sentiment to, so they are trying to balance these

different policy goals. haidi: a lack of animal spirits have been one of the biggest problems for japan. it do you the progress being made on wage negotiations that will pass through to households? do you think the economy is in a virtual cycle now? >> we hope so, and the direction that the government wants to go, japan itself is also enjoyed a post-pandemic recovery to some extent, although that is fading, so the higher wage increases should give consumers a bit more confidence to continue spending and supported growth. annabelle: that was albert park, chief economist. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to go to get your day going into day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers go to dayb. customize your settings so you only get news on the industries

and assets that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak: australia." vladimir putin is secured another six years as a question or winning more than 87% of some order with half of the votes counted. this 71-year-old will extend his quarter century of rule into a fifth term with the troops on the offensive in ukraine. three other parties offered no serious competition in a tightly controlled election. india has announced general elections will be held over six weeks from april 19. the election commission says a second phase will be completed on june 4. prime minister modi is bidding

for a third term in office. prime minister benjamin netanyahu says israel's military will begin operations in the southern city of rafah within weeks. the city is sheltering an estimated 1.5 million palestinian civilians. the prime minister said of the vote would paralyze the country for six months and risk losing the war. plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: australia

annabelle: china's economic activity data is mixed at the start of year where the property is still a major drag. data do later is expected to show retail sales rising growth

in industrial output slowing. jill disis joins us, and it is a hard date is set to read because of the holiday distortions, but if you were to thinking -- think about the key read what would be the main message we get out of this? >> right now we are looking at growth on a month-to-month basis comparable to this noisy period, probably not a ton of improvement or rapid acceleration in growth. i am sure you will see some green shoes and their. it retail sales data at your and you're not as much of an acceleration is but you have got lunar new year to account for. you did have an uptick in tourism spending. you might see an uptick in fixed asset data to increase spending

on infrastructure projects, but a really noisy set of data limited in what knowledge we will get out of this probably. not enough you're too confident they tell us we will hit about the 5% growth target for the year. maybe there is more support needed to achieve that goal. haidi: if you look at the loans numbers he went to see more support for the real economy, because clearly lowering borrowing rates is not helping. >> i think the credit data we got last week was not encouraging. what a lot of economists want to see is what else is actually going to help things out here. we did get during the national people's congress a little more support in the form of more fiscal spending, special debt that will be issued this year, but in the aggregate it is not any kind of bazooka style

stimulus that would help activity goals more about the big question is what does consumption look like throughout the rest of the year? we did see cpi to quebec -- tick back into positive territory. a lot of that had to do is spending about the holiday, so what will you see in march, april, m&a. haidi: jill ahead of the busy data dump from china, and of course a very clear proxy we watch when it comes to how the chinese economy is performing is not just the aussie dollar at how iron ore is performing. a bit of downside with the iron ore, pricing in singapore down about 14 of 1%. we went under $100 per ton for

the first time in seven months. this bet on the property prices will run through 2024, and that correlates to keeping a lid on steel demand. mixed picture when it comes to trading across miners. fortescue down, a little bit of softness for bhp, but rio tinto staying afloat. more signs if we can assess effects with chinese steel mills announcing production cuts as a spot steel prices falling as well, quite a reversal from the bullishness we saw in 2023 with a iron ore outpacing most other base metals and other commodities. we saw a gain of 20% and a lot of that being given back now. miners are dragging on the broad asx 200 as we head into our be a

decision to week amongst one of the central banks accounting for 40% of the global economy. rba looking like they may hold rates, wanting to see more data in terms of the inflation fight, but also we have weakness in other parts of the economy showing economic signals such as unemployment deciding to trend higher as well. let's get more on one of the two major central banks we are looking at this week, the bank of japan. media reports saying policymakers will end their negative rate policy on tuesday. our mliv survey asked whether that could spell the end of the bull market. >> my view is that it will be a very dovish exit. at >> markets split between march and april exit from negative rates.

>> japan raises interest rate, the u.s. goes lower. are i do not think they want to risk financial instability. >> the stock market has performed very well on the weaker yen. >> there will be a godsend it seems these couple of months will be rougher japanese equities but they will give you opportunities. >> the money leaves japan at what does it go? i could bring it back may be to china. haidi: let's bring in our asian equities reporter. depending on the investors we speak to there were two camps. at one saying the yen is one small part of why we are seeing the ball rented japan and other saying we are likely to see a pullback as a result of any moves in the currency. >> right now it is a momentous moment and everyone is watching what the bank of japan will do today, and tomorrow, and a lot

of market reports and some of the strategist mentioning that they are hiking expectation for a march ginger two days. stronger-than-expected wage results pointing to big changes coming up in two days, and the terms of the stock market you can see that just last week topix and nikkei both down 2%. there is short-term pullback in profit-taking in the market especially when it comes to financials that have risen a lot on the expectation for the boj to hike rates, and exporters are going to be squeezed by the stronger yen. most strategists and investors say that in the long term japanese stocks are going to remain very attractive, because overall the bank of japan is likely to keep monetary policy and environment quite accommodative, so even when we see the strengthening of the get it will not be as significant as

much to weigh on japanese stocks and profitability. when we think about longer-term drivers when it comes to corporate governance, that is going to be something that will push japanese stocks further, and also once this event is over it is going to be positive because a big risk is taking away from the market, and we might see more foreign investors who have been an wait-and-see mode to join the japanese stock market rally and to buy into japanese stocks, but actually on the flipside we are cheering from a server the japanese investors might still keep most of their funds outside of japanese stocks and put it in for equities because of the difference saw remaining quite big. annabelle: there are certain sectors that look attractive and others that look on attractive the boj two weeks. tell us about the different ones. >> definitely the bankers are an

interesting one. some of the investors are trimming banks already saying the bank of japan tweaks are pretty much praised him by now, but some actually say there is more to go for these financial stocks depending on how far you think that the bank of japan is going to raise rates this year. another attractive sector would be the domestic demand led sectors including retail, ray rice -- rail ways and every sectors because they are more likely to benefit from inflation, from the higher consumption level and also higher wages. in terms of less attractive areas some mentioned it is a good time to trim back on some of the stocks that have benefited from the weaker yen, especially multinational once is also the exporters, so investors, when they come to look at japanese equities from

hit foreign investor perspective some investors including morgan stanley do recommend investors to unhedge japanese equities. annabelle: we will have more on the boj when the former deputy governor tells us what he thinks the central bank should not hike rates just yet. he will have more on the outlook ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ got ten orders coming in... big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it eight months pregnant... that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs the chase ink card made it easy.

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haidi: taking a look at how japanese futures are faring, the nikkei contract in singapore pointing to some gains at the start of trade. japanese yen fairly steady. it is the really big countdown to the boj decision and local media reporting the decision is a foregone conclusion, that we would see some exit from negative rate settings. at the question is what that means for japanese equities but a lot in the market saying we can see further gains, so let's get more on the boj decision. it is the reason why stephen

engle has traveled to tokyo into he is there with our next guest. >> the big question is is japan ready for a bigger chairlift off. let's put that to our guest, the former deputy boj governor under kuroda a year ago. very honored to have you mr. wakatabe. there is what the boj will do and what it should do. let's first of all say because the foregone conclusion seems to be after kyoto, nikkei, other saying it is a foregone conclusion. is it? >> i think it is, 100% certain, and what they are going to do is raise the policy rate, and they are going to end negative rate and trajectory policy, and they

will raise that from 0% to 0.1% and they will end the purchase of etf's. >> the stock market does not need the backstop. >> that is a crucial point, i think the boj will insist even with this modification, the accommodative easing policy is on. they are going to say the real interest rate has been in they negative territory even with this so-called rate hike, and also that they make sure that first of they are not going to raise the policy rates in a successful way. >> so they will not telegraph future hikes? >> exactly. if they are asked about that, in

the current condition they are not in a situation. >> governor ueda once did not conflict with the dispensing and that he will maintain a accommodative policy despite exiting negative interest rate. >> before the outlook report comes out and before the branch managers meeting and of boj happens, in that sense, and also the wage negotiations, not the whole data is available yet, so it is a rush to do, so in that sense that governor will have every reason to say that this is a continuation of the later easing, not ending. >> if you were still on the board you would vote against

this. >> i would vote against it that i would make sure it was not going to happen. that would be not good. i have to try to convince others not to go ahead with that. >> so why the rush. the 2% inflation target, and how sustainable is that? cpi has come off the boil, still above target but it is losing. >> in that sense i am puzzled by this rush. inflation expectations are raised, but it is not as high as the 2% inflation target, so if they keep talking about achieving the inflation target in a stable and sustainable manner, it is not clear to me that they have enough data to convince themselves that they can go ahead. >> is the risk of a premature

tightening, does that outweigh the risk of overheating the economy? >> i would argue that premature tightening is greater than the risk to the overall economy. if you think about the japanese economy, gdp is stagnating and cpi is falling due to cost factors, so we do not see the momentum. >> that is what governor ueda wants to see, the sustainable, virtuous cycle, so why do it now? >> that is a puzzle to me. i cannot say for him. >> i guess of the shinto was better than expected. >> they must have some sort of reason to convince themselves that they are going to add the demand inflation coming down the

road, but it is not clear. there are not so many risks for waiting a month or two. >> you were on the board as recently as a year ago. at how unified are the board members? >> i think there may be some defense on this decision. last december 1 board member dissented and he cast his vote against the decision, so i may one or two more. i do not know. >> obviously you need to see a more virtuous, sustainable cycle of inflation, but when should the boj hike? we will get the april economic outlook and quarterly report next month. when is a good time to exit? >> that is the $1 million

question. that are going to have to see inflation expectations are rising, but if you think about the jgb 10-year yield or other yields, 10-year yield is around 70 to 80 basis points. that shows as inflation expectations are not really building up. if that is the case, they must have hit the 100 basis point, which is called a reference point, so in that sense i do not see rising inflation expectation. the boj's choice to continue this policy. >> what do you think japan needs most? what is the most urgent need for japan? they basically with the revision avoided a technical recession, so there are strange in this economy. >> we need coordination between

monetary policy and also growth policy. it is up to the government, and also the boj must cooperated with the government. the problem right now is that japan is at a critical juncture from deflationary minded to minor inflationary minded, so i think the government and boj must push this movement forward from this inflationary japan. so i think the government can do more fiscal stimulus and the boj can continue the monetary policy. >> thank you so much for your time, we appreciate your insights into this critical boj meeting culminating with what

the consensus seems to be an exit of negative interest rate policy tomorrow. annabelle: that was a great and fascinating interview, our chief north asian correspondent stephen engle with the boj decision very much in focus, but playing into that is been the data, and we had eco-data dropping for the month of january, month on month the basis of weaker than what had been expected. year on year in line with estimates but a contraction of 10.9%. on the month down 1.7%, so quite a bit weaker than the survey, but we will have more ahead. the two day meeting's rep. nunn: wednesday and media saying we will see the exit away from negative policy settings. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.

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haidi: japan's chief executives are preparing their businesses for potential difference rate hike since 2007, but the central make widely expected to it its negative rates cycle as early as tomorrow. haslinda amin spoke with the ceo to find out what boj normalization could mean for the business? >> i think the one big factor in

the japanese economy is the really weak japanese yen, so same as other central banks. it is a matter of time before the japanese central bank is coming back to the normal situation. >> has business center been important? >> what i am hearing is binary japanese companies can increase the prices of items, and that is the first step to increase compensation and hourly wage, and that cycle, we have to make it better, and so to do that we first of all need to increase the price on the items.

because of the weaker yen, we think it is becoming more expensive, but probably the first step to normalize japanese inflation in the economy. haidi: you can watch the full interview in the next episode of the latitude with haslinda amin which premieres on march 28. huge expectations when it comes to positioning across the corporate world, higher prices, higher wages to be paid with the boj move being seen as a matter of time even if we do not get the move tomorrow, and there are outliers despite expectations we will see the boj lift off tomorrow. we have heard from the likes of accrued saying it is just a matter of time. saying it could be march or

april what arises if the main scenario, which is huge for the corporate world and the broader japanese society after so many years of deflation a negative rates. annabelle: and time the quote from the ceo, consumers are not confident yet is one of the key risk factors to the foregone conclusion that the boj would be hiking as soon as tomorrow. whichever way we see the direction to going for the boj, it does seem policy will remain accommodative. equity futures in tokyo pointing higher. the market open is next, and this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia."

we are calling this week is central bank blitz and it is nothing short of that when you got the fed, boj, rba, so many central banks decisions to over the couple of days. haidi: bonanza frenzy, it is a treat if you are a policy aficionado, not to mention indonesia as australia with the rba as well perhaps overshadowed by the big three especially when it comes to the boj, and as we've been talking about corporate japan have been positioning even if it is not this week it is a case of visit march or is it april? annabelle: when you have got possibly the first like a move away from negative rates we have seen in japan since 2007, it is no surprise we are going to be focusing in on what happens in tokyo over the coming two days. boj meeting is going often local media are reporting this is a fre