tom: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

i am tom mackenzie. japan lead stocks higher in asia as the boj headlines have big we of central-bank decisions. it's negative interest rate policy likely to end tomorrow. china's factory output and investment grow more than expected showing stimulus measures are helping, but consumers remain cautious. a defiant vladimir putin warns russia will not be stopped from pursuing its goals after sweeping to victory in a tightly controlled presidential election. let's check in on these markets, a solid session in asia bolstered by the gains in japan. the nikkei rallying on convictions that the yen will not strengthen that much even if a rate hike comes through. the first hike since 2007 ending the negative interest rate policies. the expectation from boj watchers is it is likely to happen on tuesday.

european futures pointed to .2 of 1%. s&p futures pointing higher by .5 of 1%. the number of cuts for the fed just under three. nasdaq futures up .5 of 1%. we are watching the apple story with bloomberg report and there is potentially a partnership between apple and google gemini. ftse 100 futures pointing higher by .1 of 1%. boe reporting and its decision on thursday. the fed, but before that the boj on tuesday. let's flip cross asset as we think about central-bank setting policy for almost half of the global population. 10 year, currently 4.29. a lot of work on the front end and terms of yields up around 20 basis points as markets readjusted to stickier inflation

then push back and faded their expectations around just how many cuts will be coming through from the federal reserve. japanese yen, 149. iron ore bumping around in the session across below $100 per ton. linking to the china data up 2.7% on iron ore. brent up .4 of 1% after last week's gains. the attacks on russia to refineries in china data coming in stronger than many expected bolstering oil once again. $85 per barrel on brent. let's get more details on what is happening with the chinese economy, a positive start of the year with the factory up with something more than expected up 7% over january and february. it retail sales up 5.5%. that number roughly in line with the estimates. let's bring in rebecca wilkins. is this a sign that the stimulus

measures collectively not insignificant but finally working. >> it suggest some of the supplies i stimulus we have seen so far as allowing for the stabilization in parts of the chinese economy, at least outsider property for example. industrial figures caught my eye as did fixed asset investment figures. both of those came in comfortably above estimates there. we also i'd manufacturing investment growth on track for his fastest pace since october 2022, so a lot of reasons to be positive, but i think the key element is to look at the muted, lackluster market reaction to when we first saw the initial sweep of figures coming out, and it is really about this cautioned that the growth we are seeing, improvement of we are seeing rely on the old model that china is trying to move away from, relying more on trying to push more money

through it investment into infrastructure and so one without tackling some of the fundamental issues about consumer demand, and well retail numbers came in higher, at the a result of this context that perhaps really more about the activities, the festivities of lunar new year that helped artificially bump up that number. tom: some of those underlying challenges remaining as you point to for the chinese economy. what are you when the team looking up for next? >> there was one thing that was missing we were hoping to see today, and that was the youth unemployment figure. one of the more controversial pieces of chinese stated that we originally saw removed entirely from the database back last year and the summer of last year. it back then there was a record high of young people, one in five young people struggling to find a job.

those numbers were revised and they came back, they were moved to factoring in of people in school and the never came in around 15%. authorities have said they are expecting to release vat and the next couple of days, so we are keeping an eye on that. this speaks to the consumer demand story is whether or not we get a more details on this potential retail trading program that is bent reiterated it a various corners of the machinery since then. businesses and retail consumers encouraging the trade in their goods and central government with the rexam porch at a fun sort that, but we do not know how much. tom: rebecca choong wilkins with details of the data and what to look out for in terms of the jobless rate in further detail out of the beijing apparatus in terms of policy supporting some of those consumer sales. let's get the market reaction and see how the asian markets are faring this monday.

let's bring in avril hong. avril: we are looking at a positive reaction in the equity space in china. to be clear, it it was a mixed bag as rebecca and you have been discussing. we saw the pickup for the industrial production print as well as for investment, and that seems to be when investors are focusing on in spite of what we saw, a slight mist on the retail sales as well as the big concern for the property side of things. csi 300 clucking gains about .6 of 1%, hang seng in the green. it lets let the board because i want to take you to some of the movers in the markets for chinese equities today. chinese authorities telling ev makers to buy local or -- propping up domestic names. that we are keeping a close watch of this week on some of the companies on the hang seng

tech. a company could unveil its ev and visions by earnings as well from tencent. it is also about the bank of japan and its -- this speculation ramping up in the markets pricing and the hike from the boj. futures and tenure reversing some of the moves from last week . it did not forget, we had to be a jade today coming through with a massive liquidity operation via repos indicating that they do not want to tolerate any big fluctuations in the bond space, and regardless, it looks like it will be a while even if the doj moves tomorrow before we see 1%, let alone 2% of the 10 year. let's flip the board, because what we are minding is the gap between the u.s. and japan, and again hovering at the 149 level. equities also still powering through those gains accelerating

toward the close on the nikkei, and it is really about the fundamentals, so this is what we are seeing as we count down to the boj and the fed. tom: fantastic breakdown of the asian markets this monday. let stand on there's no story, image or week at central banks. the fed, bank of japan among those that do make great decisions. that will effect after the world's economy. economy see fed officials holding steady what the boj widely expected to finally end of the negative tomorrow. not locked into but the expectation from boj watcher says that is where they will go on the back of strong ways did got out last week. let's bring in mark greenfield -- cranfield. what is the set up for dollar-yen? tell us. >> traders have had lots of time to digest all of this information, which we now think it's going to culminate in

finding a change for the bank of japan for the first time in 17 years, and if you look up at the rate is, just above $1494-yet -- 149 on dollar-yen. they do not fear any boj move will be so stronger estimate night a fire under the yen. it is surprising we are not lower, but the reason for that is it is not just about the bank of japan. it is also about the federal reserve, so traders need to make of you on how does one central bank stand up against the other? if you have fully priced in a dovish move from the bank of japan, yes, they may go to zero rate or a touch higher, but they are likely to accompany it with a statement which is very dovish for the future telling us interest rates will move very slowly. and then you flip to the other side with you at the federal reserve coming up this week as well, and as you were saying earlier, there is a decent chance they will reduce the

outlook on the dot plots to only two interest rates this year and that will be seen as a fairly aggressive move, and that will underpin the u.s. dollar. standing at 149, which suggest raters are more concerned about what they have coming up from the federal reserve than what they have coming up in the bank of japan. tom: that gives us important contacts around the rally with japanese stocks, nikkei currently up 2.7%, which would look counterintuitive, but you have given us the contacts as to why that may be happening given expectations around the yen. with the treasury story, we saw yields up 20 basis points on the two year, one of the worst weeks for quite some time. what was going on there? >> the reality is finally sinking in that the federal reserve really is going to take it's time. it is a message that fed speakers have been putting board for several weeks.

last week they were in a black out, but prior to that there were several fed to voices who saying there is no rush. recent cpi data, ppi did at last week as well coming in above forecast, so we are giving them plenty more time to go. we have a report out today which shows they have digested all of these headlines, 900 headlines which come from federal speakers in recent months, and it points to july being the earliest time when we could expect a lowering of interest rates run the federal reserve. that is quite different to the beginning of the year where we were expecting march would be a live situation for the federal reserve. that is not the situation now, so we went from one point think we might get seven interests rate cuts and that we may have to adjust to two and even that is becoming questionable. obviously the treasury market is taking the brunt of that. of present -- a pleasant

surprise would be if the fed maintains three interest rate cuts in its dot plots. many people think the risk will be going to one but maybe not that this meeting. tom: possibly from three all the way to one. excellent, thank you for that detail. to the tech story and a big week for nvidia once again dominating the story and all things ai. its annual ai conference kicking off today. expectations a very high for news that could used it and other tech stocks. let's bring in jane for the details. what are we expecting to hear? >> gtc is the development conference where it unveils new products and partnerships, and there are a lot of expectation that it will unveil its next ai chip and platform that will

speed up the ai model training, so a lot of the specs are going to be analyzed by analysts to see how big of a jump is this and how expensive could this be and what kind of change will that bring? it will be key to watch of these aspects to see how this moves nvidia going forward. tom: from eight confluence few people paid a much attention to to a conference been nicknamed ai woodstock, talk to us about the context of this and the focus and scrutiny of the event this week? >> exactly, it is fair to even say a lot of people in the u.s. did not know what nvidia was a few years back, but with the advent of chatgpt where ai has become part of everyone's world. i had teenagers to quebec that day who said, mom, there is this

new ai thing and it can do my homework for me. behind that are these nvidia ai chips which have power at the training and data centers that have trained chatgpt and other large language models, so that excitement as really pushed ai to the forefront. nvidia already up 80%. it is a 2.2 trillion dollars a gap realize company, somewhat unthinkable even if you years ago, and jensen is a celebrity. he has a gaggle of reporters following him everywhere asking what kind of noodles he likes. it changed ai chip hardware from everything ignored to something everyone pays attention to. tom: next time we need to know

his favorite noodle type. $2.2 trillion snapping at the heels of apple. the reported potential partnership between apple and gemini could further propel apple's market cap. what do i store at the event with jensen giving the keynote speech. major week for the central banks, boj rate decision comes on tuesday. as we have been discussing, boj watchers increasingly think the bank of japan will make that move with the first hike since 2007 ending its negative interest rate policy given the waged negotiation detail we got out last week. that decision comes on tuesday. wednesday, we have the fed decision. mark detailing the forecast and

the update around the dot plots. they could move from three to two, and on thursday we get the boe decision. markets pricing in the first boe cut in august. widely expected to be hot held that any details will be important in terms of informing our viewers. u.s.-israel relations hit a new low as benjamin netanyahu which is back on chuck schumer's call for new israeli elections. we discussed that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the european union has pledged a $7.4 billion aid package in

egypt. it was announced by ursula von der leyen during the trip to cairo with leaders from italy, greece, and cyprus. it marked the latest push to buoy egypt which is seen as vital to regional stability. switching focus to israel and gaza, the israel military has made it steeper -- deepest incursion targeting a hospital citing hamas activity as prime minister benjamin netanyahu vowed to continue the work and pushback by comments against senate majority leader chuck schumer who last week called for elections in israel. >> it is totally inappropriate. it is inappropriate to go to a sister democracy and try to replace the elected leadership of their. that is something that is something the israeli republic does on its own. tom: let's bring in israel's

euro chief. to what extent this division and it seems like increasing division between the u.s. and israel could shift or will shift policy. on one level it seems like the policy has not shifted in letter pressure from the u.s.. is that likely to change or is it changing under the surface? >> i do not think is really policy will change but the bigger question is will u.s. policy change? will president biden under enormous public pressure and electoral pressure actually start to turn the screws on netanyahu and israel and its policy in gaza? i think it is also about timing. if the israelis can accomplish something that they consider victory in gaza fast enough probably not, and there are also negotiations going on. tom: on those negotiations to we

have any progress? do we know what the detail is around the negotiations for the release of the hostages in a potential cease-fire? >> the israelis have declined to join these negotiations for the last 10 days. the head of the spy agency will be going to qatar in order to push this thing forward, so what is held things up until now is the hamas insistence that whatever deal there is has to be a permanent cease-fire and the israeli insistence that there cannot be a permanent cease-fire. they are working a two or three stage process, the first age of which will not require a commitment to a full cease-fire, and therefore they're good to be an exchange of 30 or 40 is really -- israeli hostages for

prisoners held in israel as well as a massive increase in humanitarian aid and the cease-fire of some weeks, about six. tom: thank you very much. coming up, oil pushes higher as china did a beets and ukraine steps up attacks under pressure to refineries. we will take a look at the commodity space. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." some of the other stories making news today, donald trump says he will hit chinese carmakers made in mexico with the 100% tariff if reelected.

the figure is double what he previously promised. the presumptive republican presidential candidate addressed president xi jinping directly in a rally speech in ohio. he proposed tariffs on as much is 60% on chinese goods. india announced general elections will take place over six weeks from april 19. the polls will be completed on june 1 with devote counting on june 4. prime minister modi is bidding for a third term in office boosted by a strong economy and a weakened opposition aligned struggling to put across a cohesive message. prime minister rishi sunak is facing the same levels of economic misery that led to the conservative party's election defeat in 1997. the misery index is at its worst

since john majors landslide defeat but likely to improve over the next 12 months as inflation eases. prices on homes in the u.k. have risen at their fastest pace in 10 months. the online sales portal right move says the average asking price was up 1.5% in march to just over 368,000 pounds. right move saying it seems the bottom has now passed. let's check in on the commodities market, a big day in terms of the data that has come out of china. on the factory output gauge and investment you have seen a pretty strong tick up in the first room instead of trying to on the date of the came out today. retail sector remains cautious, consumers remain cautious, but the readthrough is there for the commodity space. brent currently up .4 of 1%.

part of that tied to slightly stronger data after a strong week, that the best week in a month for oil. iron ore broke through $100 per ton, up close to 3% so far in this session. we now unpack the story around vladimir putin, the election extending his nearly a quarter-century roll into a fifth term with a record when -- win an election with no real challenger. the implications for russia and the world. stay

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tom: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe."

these are the stories that set your agenda. it japan late stocks higher in asia is the boj headlines a big week of central-bank decisions. it's negative interest rate policy looks likely to end tomorrow. china's factory output grow more than expected showing stimulus measures are helping, but consumers remain cautious. eight if vladimir putin warns russia will not be stopped from pursuing its goals after sweeping to victory in a tightly controlled presidential election. let's check in on the markets. central-bank policy being sent for almost half of the world's growth. boj decision tomorrow, the fed and boe later on in the week. currently looking at european futures up .2 of 1%. ftse 100 futures pointing to .2 of 1% as well. as it back below 5100.

stocks for nvidia, and that event later today making a keynote speech. nasdaq currently point into gains, nasdaq 100 of a .5 of 1%. when it comes to the fed to markets expecting fewer than three rate cuts coming through from the central bank. the details will be essential for this markets on wednesday. let's have a look on how treasuries are is shaping up with and i -- an eye on the japanese yen. saw 20 basis point jump on the two year last week, so a significant solo particularly at the front end and we will see how that story involves. japanese yen, 149. the view around a potentially softer and is bolstering japanese stocks today. iron ore, 102, a little bit of

strength after a challenging week last week on suggestions that may be the data is starting to prove around the edges a bit of improvement around china. brent, $85 per barrel after its best we can a month last week up .5 of 1%. let's get the geopolitics industry around vladimir putin and the election. consequential, significant. vladimir putin warning russia will not be stopped from pursuing its goals. he is defiant where it's coming after securing another 60 years as president with a record of victory in a tightly controlled election where he faced no serious competition. let's bring in tony halpin for the conversation. there was very little doubt this would be the result. how was the kremlin adjusting to the result and what is the messaging coming through and what is to tell us about aims and goals going forward? >> it certainly far exceeds

anything we have seen in russia's post-soviet history and puts boudin -- putin in the camp of several asian electorates. the turnout was pointed something not seen since 1991 when boris yeltsin won the election after the soviet union's collapse. it is intended to convey a message putin has a united country behind them, but there are a great deal of doubts about some of the results that have been seen in the country. tom: just expand on that a little. you were giving us the context in terms of how significant or the size of this apparent support in that is historical context going all the way back to 1991. is there any real sense that

there is oppositional put back -- pushback? >> in many regions what is called administrative resources were deployed to ensure state workers should have been voted the right way and places like moscow and st. petersburg there were extremely high votes and turnouts in his favor. there is very little actual opposition on the ground since the death of alexei navalny in prison, though there were protest at some polling stations that were quite marginal and opposition to putin has been suppressed by the the kremlin which has been cracking down on dissent. tom: thank you on that important story out of russia with the russian president saying he is committed to pursuing his goals on the back of the election

victory with all of the context of that was highly controlled and not in doubt. eu foreign ministers are meeting in brussels today to discuss ukraine and the situation in the middle east. you cannot think ukraine without thinking about russia. germany and france called for the european investment bank to step up defense spending. let's bring in all of her crook -- oliver crook with the details. look at a meeting on the ground in ukraine? >> the european investment bank is the lending arm of the eu the air to deploy capital to get through to europe's policy aims, and one of those big policy aims has been defense spending and getting that back to where it needs to be. so they want some of this on a security initiative back in 2022, and there are about eight euros and that part of the fun. there is a policy that is

cutting this it is basically that these investments cannot go to anything that is not dual use, i.e. both civilian and military," them from what that precisely means, the projects we support require that the majority of the remotest expected future revenue will come from civilian application, so when you were talking about artillery shells, bullets, guns, fighter jets, that does not have a nonmilitary application. and some as a consequence, that sort of part of defense rome is being neglected, and that is really where a lot of them and he needs to go, so what they want is to countries that have signed this led by germany and france, in the want reform to visit you can have your defense spending going forward for the eib. tom: if that reform came through as the french and germans clearly want to do, would it make significant difference in terms of the support europe is able to give ukraine? >> you have to look at it from a couple of different perspectives. this is the money side, so we think about it and turns the volume and to me that would actually go toward defense.

when you look at eib spending were deployed capital, it deployed 75 billion euros worth of it. only $750 million was toward defense. 80 billion is not a huge sum of money. it does help with the european strategic fund, which they went out its industrial strategy of putting a more centralized view of where and how europe spends money on defense, habitus procurement, and 11 how centralized it is sort of r behind that would be a truly helpful, and there are two signals. one of the signals we are from a seo we we interviewed him last week that if the eib is putting money toward this, it signals to big funds that they should be and can be making money and spending more defense, but then there was this question of the moral signal. we have spent a lot of time for many years talking about esg. it where it is defense, military, guns fit into positive social impact? that was said to be a thing from on time, but since the invasion of ukraine, perspectives have shifted on that and a lot more esg facing funds are now

investing in aerospace and defense companies. tom: oliver around eib and the consequences of that potential signet ring -- signaling around it investment flows. not to a bloomberg scoop, apple is in talks to build google's gemini artificial ai engine into the iphone in a deal that could shake up the ai industry. kriti gupta has the details. >> let me walk you through some of this. this has to do with the byproduct of that alphabet's google offered to back in march 2023. this is a new product. in that year they have managed to do quite a lot. in january, samsung it does without their kind of offering with gemini ai involved in it. apple is trying to do the same. there are two ways to interpret it. these discussions are not official and have not been talked about. this is according to reporting

from mark gurman. it is important to give in mind there are two things. this could be assigned that apple is not actually been able to develop their ai product that well. there is a working partnership between apple and alphabet. alphabet has been paying billions of dollars annually to be the go to search platform when you look at apple's safari, iphones, ipads. the first thing you pull up is the google search engine. it is a working partnership in the works for a while, but in addition to the fact that apple does not at the ai edge, there is a sign for gemini, is gives access to 2 billion users worldwide, a massive number when it comes to getting to reach that gemini has sent out -- and arguably on top of samsung which are very big competitors. samsung has the edge along with emerging market economies.

spain, china, india, samsung is to go to, so that will be allowed to keep an eye when you look at the working partnership and whether or not apple can actually edge out or at least have some of the ai offering in some way, because if you look at the stock they have not been in on the ai really because they have not had an ai product. the one hurdle is antitrust scrutiny from both sides of the company. alphabet is focusing on lawsuits with the doj, apple dealing with plenty in europe. tom: those eu commissions are waking up to the headlines and taking up a look at this story. the potential partnership between apple and google gemini. coming up i will be joined by the chief economist and head of economics and strategy at ubs investment bank. we will get his views on key central-bank decisions this week. that interview was next. -- is next.

this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." it is a major week for central banks with the fed to come at the bank of japan among those who said to make rate calls it

will affect half of the world's economy. better to speak to then the chief economist ubs. i will ask you the question as to which central-bank decision is most important for you this week? >> it is the fed. i think what they say matters. the market has so to pricing a lot to pricing a little and where the fed goes everywhere else goes. there is safety in the herd. our assumption is we think that will stick with three cuts may be because the forecast will not revise. where the dot plot goes the rate forecast goes. at this stage of the data is still all over the map for the u.s. that it is unclear what the staff is briefing them. it is a bullish story where everything is fine or a bearish story where you now have a

triggering and 42 states and leading employment category starting to roll over? so it is unclear where the mindset is at the center of the committee. tom: is this a new normal for us post-pandemic, the data is a less clear? is there a period and time where we get to relative around data? >> for a couple of years i think seasonal factors distorted everything. or three years running we got our forecast wrong post gmc and eventually seasonal factors catch up. you can see it in the claims data for instance. last week that provides seasonal scent are much closer to pre-pandemic seasonals. there was a lot of distortion not unique to the u.s. tom: how vulnerable is the market from the revision and do you think that is priced in? >> i do not think it is vulnerable.

next year's guidance will be important. they still have 100 next year, so if you take one out this year what do you do next year? if they do not change the unemployment forecast you can hang onto the market pricing. the risk is unemployment starts to go lower because payroll start to go too fast. the markets will stay up toward the cutting cycle. unemployment started drifting up as he could have forecast of they have. tom: it seems like there is it disconnect from what we heard in jay powell saying we are not far from the position where we can cut versus stickier inflation. rhetoric from the german and the data. what do you make of that? >> not far means they will go in june. they had an opportunity to change that and they did not. other speakers did not say anything that suggested a big shift. sticky inflation, from our

perspective there was good news in the inflation print even though it was quite hot. everything that happened in the prior print in january was not supposed to happen. residual seasonality was there but in all the wrong components, so there was a lot of nervousness on the part of the fed staff as to whether something was happening that would carry over into the forecast. the february print confirms that is not the case, so most of the things that are unknown to malaise -- that are anomalous have disappeared. we get a print based on how they sample debt. tom: that was the good news, and you still see june for the fed. let's switch focus to the boj. they make that decision tomorrow. is it locked in at this point and how did you see the sequencing going from here? >> it looks locked in. if you look at the local press a full page in the nikkei

newspaper saying first hike in 17 years. we had thought april. clearly and looks like it will happen now. it was not just the wage round. it was kishida in parliament saying the boj can go ahead. the key uncertainty is not whether they go from -10 to 0. if they abandon ycc but also eliminate the reference rate, then the question is what is your intervention policy? they will have to guide us to what extent they went to stabilize the market. tom: the expectation around yield curve control is they drop that? >> a couple of months ago we thought they might phase it. negative interest rate policy and hang onto the reference rate and then abandon yield curve control. we think it happens now but the question is what is your

intervention policy. on etf they sit on the portfolio and do nothing, so they will have to send a signal that qt is nowhere on the horizon. tom: it is a dovish hike. when it comes to the bank of england thursday is the decision. marcus not expecting the first got to come through until august. do you think they had the ability to wait until august and do they have to do more if they are starting later? >> we have august as well. they have to wait until august because the inflation and wage data has not gone far enough in their favor. they are going through the same inflation dynamics as the euro zone in the u.s. except that it started later. can they afford to wait? the economy is going nowhere fast, so it is not that asymmetric. it is symmetric in the sense that if you wait you are doing or damage for households that have mortgages resetting and

growth is stagnant, but you cannot justify going much earlier. tom: are you seeing green shoes in the european economy? >> i would have to look hard. a few things. it is unclear. the february data reversed improvement we saw in survey data. there is a globally including in the euro zone i think a bounce in that data bucket that is a loosely related to consumption. everything else looks bad to, and if you think about the auto sector, the backlogs are worked off and production should start to fall, so i think it is a mixed bag of consumer getting better, trade is still weak, not getting positive spillover from the tech story in asia. it is difficult to be optimistic about where we are going. tom: the chief economist at ubs investment bank. plenty more coming up.

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>> we have been seeing the bank of japan will be tightening policy. >> my view is it will be a dovish exit. >> markets web between the march and april exit from negative rates. >> japan raises the interest rate in the u.s. goes lower. >> i do not think they want to risk financial instability. >> the stock market performed well on the weaker yen, so that would take is just out of it. >> there will be hick ups and it seems these couple of months will be rough for japanese equities, but at the same time they give you opportunities. >> the money will leave japan and what is ago? maybe to china. tom: bloomberg tv guest

discussing the bank of japan in our latest mliv survey. let's reflect on what is happening around the position in the yen, because on some levels it seems counterintuitive you were seeing the yen softening and the bets softening from asset managers is that it will be further weakness for the yen as we expect the bank of japan to raise interest rates if not tomorrow then in the coming months. bank of japan watchers think it will happen tomorrow. ubs things the bank of japan will raise interest rates. he think they will scrap yield curve control. these are the short positions building and it again despite expectations you look at the rate increase and the fed is a big factor in that particularly if they revive forecast in terms of dot plots from 3 to 2 fewer

cuts coming from the fed, higher for longer. pressure on the yen even as the bank of japan looks to raise interest rates. here is the expectation around the federal reserve. you have gone from 107, expectations you might get seven cuts to expectations you will get fewer than three. it is a provision some fed forecast that ties into the bank of japan. let's have a look at the 10 year, because treasury markets are reacting to these expectations, stickier inflation data out of the u.s. and commentary on fed officials and markets and treasure is reacting with the selloff last week particularly on 2 and 10, and you saw a 20 basis point moves. money moving out on expectations you will get fewer cuts this year, so that is the context you

see. there is this selloff in the u.s. 10 year. expected to stand bet against revisions. coming up later, the barclays chief executive joining the surveillance team to discuss the u.k. lenders outlook and strategy plan. that is an exclusive conversation. up next, markets today breaking down all of the central bank action and setting you up for the week. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be. all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work.

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guy: good morning from london. this is "bloomberg markets: today." i'm guy johnson alongside kriti gupta and tom mackenzie. we are about an hour from cash trading, what do you need to know this monday morning? bloomberg learned apple is