>> good morning. i am kriti gupta in london.

as the federal reserve maintains its outlook for u.s. rate cuts this year. >> if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. >> that puts the focus on the bank of england. also to deliver policy decisions later on today. plus, the market reaction. plus, the chief economist. let's get a quick check on the markets in the meantime. there was a lot to digest. i mentioned the highs you saw in the u.s. session. what does that mean for the futures picture? >> a little bit of green on the screen. the party continues on the side of the atlantic. the ftse 100 higher by about the

same amount. what that tells you is that read across from the state is continuing into the asian session and europe as well. take a look at what we are seeing in the u.s.. futures trading. this morning you are seeing the exact opposite. a little bit of a defensive tilt to it. it really speaks to this idea that the party is continuing to go on simply because even though you are seeing these inflation upticks, the idea of rate cuts on the horizon has not changed at all. let's talk about the bond market story as well. that pricing ahead of the meeting had really changed anywhere from three rate cuts to two rate cuts. if you get a quick check on the bond market, that is where this story has a little bit of dislocation. you have seen this diversions. any movement in the bond story has not translated into the fx

story. this is a really big piece of the equation when you look at that 10-year yield. it is interesting given that you are starting to see this rate cuts get priced in. stronger a little bit on both of those european currencies. a lot of it has to do with the fed change up. but again, how much of this puts the onus on the central banks? that is the story here in europe. let's see what the story is here in asia. walk us through it. >> we are seeing the fed as well as those that is really helping assets across the region and asia. the korean won outperforming. it is moving toward that 1320 level.

it is going great today. it is about the idea that we have the chipset you doing pretty well. these are the companies that bloomberg intelligence will show their sales recovery in the first half of this year. let's flip the board. then the question also becomes from the tech heavy indices in the asia-pacific, where do we go from here? for the kospi it used to move pretty much in tandem with the semiconductor index. there has been a bit of a diversions of late. given how we are expecting chip stocks to perform. maybe it is time for it to play

catch up. let's flip the board again. i want to take you to the dollar-yen. they pushed her toward 152. now the fed and power pushing it back down to the 51 level. >> it felt like the onus one from the boj to the federal reserve. how your team's filter that through the fx story. there is probably more to go. it all comes down to the inflationary story. look at what he comes talking about. a bit of a dovish pair that about how the market interpreted that overhang there. it really comes down to the hopkins we saw. take a listen to what chair powell had to say. there is reason to think there could be seasonal effects there. we don't want to be completely

dismissive. the february number was high. the two of them together, i think they have another changed the overall story. >> take the two of them together and it has not really changed the picture. those are the words from chair powell in the face of some pretty consecutive prints. on the surface, this seemed a little hawkish to me. you saw the idea that they are still talking about some of these inflation upticks. what did you make of the dot plot in particular? then we will go into the nitty-gritty of inflation. >> good morning. i thought the dot plot was an impossible effort to squared

away by the fed. they sent the jobless rate will be lower this year. this is the core pce will be sharply higher than they were expecting in december. they also pushed up the gdp growth forecast for the year all the way from 1.4 to 2.1%. 2.1% is a pre-magical level when you think about the long-term rate in the u.s.. they think we will get above trend growth. the labor market will be pretty strong. here they go. they are trying to square that circle which is impossible. he was pretty evasive and he was

-- she was pretty evasive on the question. the fed is probably thinking rates are too restrictive year and they want to get a lower even though the economy is not offering an excuse. the fed is fighting the economy at the stage. >> it is interesting that you are saying they are doing this. if you look at some of the nitty-gritty, it seemed like an initially hawkish take. talk to us about the bond market reaction. or whether some of the rhetoric seems a little bit hawkish. the bond market always catches the bid. why? ? without the think that that their word. despite all the imports coming in from the economy, three day

cuts are on the table. that is what the markets are doing. it is not too emphatic. and particularly the 10 year. with the fed day was raise this rate. that suggests interest rates will be higher for longer. this is attached to the local men. it will be higher. that will keep things stickier at the long red. they will not be visible in the price action today or tomorrow. but probably next week. they took it on after that. i think the markets will start to reflect. >> it is interesting we talk about the fact that the bond market has not move that aggressively. it is kind of doing it is

slow-motion. really fascinating. thank you so much for urinalysis this morning on the day after the fed. now the focus shifting to the boe. that is one of the central bands we are watching. we will dive into the announcements. lizzy burden joining me now. ahead of this week's central bank poser. the fed and the boe are going to be a little bit of a snooze fest. tell us why it might not be this time around. >> is never a snooze fest. it may hold rates but i would look to the dot plot for some more excitement. maybe another three way split. maybe this time it will be a little bit more dovish. maybe you will see jonathan haskell dropping out of the camp and leaving catherine man the soul for a hike. you did get that u.k. cpi data.

you had good news on the headline of core levels being better that -- beating expectations. it speaks to domestically driven inflation. it is about the future path of rates. they recommend positioning as soon and may for cuts. you did see traders changing their bets but still pretty much in line is where they were for a third cut still on the table. bailey not likely to give too much guidance on the timing today. >> lizzy burden, we thank you so much for bringing us that analysis this morning. we will be watching the fx story, the cable rate. let's talk about what else we are getting on the day ahead as well. as he talked about why the boe

is not a snooze fest. that is coming up at about 8:30 a.m. london time and remember a lot of the market position here is going to be short. the fx through is really significant. we don't give up ton of emphasis to any of this. but you should in light of some of the oil market moves you are seeing. a very different story from the s&p. commodities exposed to economies. creating some sort of precedent for the others. then we have some central-bank decisions to deliver some of the investment banking decisions that long awaited that ipl is due to debut today in new york. this is a lot to do when it comes to the idea of whether or not this opens the floodgates for other ipos. we had these tech companies that

have ipo'ed and then not performed that well in the days after. does reddit follow that trend or break it? it looks like those will be priced at $34 a share. it is not the only ipl notes -- ipo news. we are getting headlines. not in the but in dubai. $429 million ipo. in the context of what you might see in london or new york is not that they but it is a vector. it marks a record for dubai. this is a public parking business that is a huge demand. $71 billion in orders. that massive move there. whether that is a dubai story or indicative of perhaps another realm or another success story

for the ipo. lots to talk about coming up later on the show. our exclusive interview with the wto chief economist. that is coming up shortly. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back this comes as the company embarks on a year-long effort to trim costs and boost profits within the unit. stepping with the bank's pace, citigroup producing its investment banking headcount in london. 20 employees affected.

they are lucky to include junior staffers in the analyst a director that was. sticking with corporate news. the u.s. justice department is said to be poised to apple as soon as today. for violating antitrust laws. apple has been accused of bucking -- blocking rivals from accessing hardware and software functions of its iphone. the ftc also proceeded antitrust cases against med and amazon. boeing has predicted a massive kapstream for the first quarter as we go toward scrutiny as lower output of his 737 max takes its toll on the company's finances. billions of dollars for the full year. 5 million expected. this is the company grapples with the aftermath of another incident earlier this year. buoyed by for artificial

intelligence. we have been watching the largest maker of computer memory chips. it will be between 6.4 inches $.8 million. topping 6 billion penciled in by analysts. finally, brecon handbags are just too difficult about as that is the contention of two shoppers in california who are sent to file a lawsuit in california. plenty more had. i would terms and trade segment is coming up. we are speaking exquisitely to the wto chief economist. this is bloomberg. his

>> >> it is time for our terms

of the trade. her weekly dive into the state of globalization. consumers have been pretty resilient in multiple parts of the world. how long can it last? there is a lot to talk about when it comes to the impact on trade. a pleasure to have you on the program. thank you for joining us. let's start with the story about globalization. good morning. we are hearing a lot about this idea that we have a lot of election risks. there is a lot of manufacturing capacity on your chores and on to chinese chores. these ideas of the globalizing. how much of a risk is it going into 50% of the world elections this year? >> when we look at the data, we see any signs of

deglobalization. but we do see is signs of fragmentation. as you mentioned, the u.s.. also, the u.s. and china. this is all between the u.s. and china. trade shares away from china. you also see it more broadly. we separated the world into two geopolitical blocks. what you see if you look at the data is trade and it tends to

grow more slowly now. i am adding to this picture of cross science. >> as we talk about that fragmentation, what is the readthrough of the consumer? how does that serve or not serve the global economy >> it is not so much everyone doing that. we really see a shift. instead, imported from other ones. to be a diversion.

the u.s. is imported from mexico. >> we are talking a little bit about what the north american sphere. as we talk about the tensions around the world, geopolitical tensions in the middle east in the red sea. if you talk to corporate ceos, the theme seems to be we are not seeing a readthrough just yet. that the trauma of the post-covid era and the supply crate -- supply quenches their have created some sort of resiliency of supply chains as well. how long does conflict in the red sea need to go on? where do you start to see her breaking point in some of the supply chains? >> that is my assessment at the moment. we also don't see any major effects.

a lot of trade has to be diverted. it is just about whether or not this will start affecting energy markets. the reason that international trade is "well is because we have a good amount of shipping capacity. that way shipping companies can absorb this extra work they have to do. >> resiliency in terms of shipping. a lot of the ways this is tackled is done through excess fuel, excess labor, rerouting around the cape of good hope. a lot of those costs are passed on to the consumer. in this era where you are seeing

consumer resiliency around the world, that makes a lot of sense. if this last years and using the same issues passed on to a weak economic backdrop, with that see a bigger result? >> of course. it is especially not helping europe. the u.s. has been doing better than expected. global trade has also been doing worse. they affect the whole world. this is going to last for a long time at some point. at the moment the weak demand in europe is helping.

we so what is the end of the conquests. >> well, a final question to you. we are talking about this import demand being fairly weak. let's look at this out of japan and korea that are still really depend on those export revenues. what is your brain on the currency impact? 30 seconds if you can. >> the currency impact is on something i can share any information -- any interesting information about. it is the end of the year course. the property market would affect china's growth and chinese

rates. as we are looking at the moment, that is the situation in europe. >> understood. ralph, the chief economist at the wto. we think you so much. coming up, eu leaders meet in brussels to discuss support for ukraine. stick. this bloomberg.

>> good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak: europe.

let's get to the top stories that set your agenda. pal keeps the party going. they hit another all-time high on the u.s. session as the fed maintains its outlook for three years when konstas you. >> if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to job after restraint at some point this year. >> now the spotlight on the bank of england also expected to announce the hold later on today while having a little more time for those inflationary pressures to cool. it is switzerland's national bank that could be despised. a handful of banks i shall rising rate cut. a lot to digest. this can quick check on the markets ahead of what is sure to be in action-packed next 24 hours. you are seeing green on the screen. the wrecker you saw in the states continuing in the european and asian sessions. higher by about 1.52%.

traditionally when using a record high on the state, you see a pullback in futures. some outperformance in the u.s. futures. at least .4%. some outperformance in the defense of space. nasdaq 100 hired by .8%. that is the equity picture. this check on the bond market. that is where we are supposed to see more of the monetary action. 426. back on the in the last 30 minutes or so when you look at the market. the epic tour is the focus this morning. we are keeping an eye on what that actually looks like this morning. that is your central banking story ukraine's prime minister says military neighborhood fewer than half the military troops

they originally planned. >> we have assurances from the united states senate. we are awaiting the decision of congress. we have bipartisan support from the congress. i believe that we will have this good news from the united states and the united states will join. military and financial support of ukraine with this battle over russia.

would you welcome boots in ukraine even in your noncombat capacities? a full-scale aggression. they changed dramatically. in is very good news for all of us. now they are protecting european borders. president macron's munication is much stronger. it is very clear. this is what we all need. not just ukraine but all european union. the only way to fight and to liberate in this full scale war such as russia.

>> ukraine's prime minister speaking s was our very own oliver crook. eu leaders our meeting today. discussing key issues that include security, defense and spending. good morning morning from london. let's talk about the story around freezing russian assets. how are the leaders approaching it? >> this will be one of the most critical points. it is these 200 60 billion euros that are being held right now by the g7. 200 of which are being held in europe right now. there is a short-term lease of ukraine. long-range missiles. there is no longer question about how to fund ukraine, how to get money to ukraine. but judging by the fact that the $60 billion package is still stuck in congress, the they are tapping some of these russian

assets. within europe you don't have unanimity about that. some of the member states are less comfortable with funding military equipment directly but there was another idea and this came up with the ukrainian prime minister. >> the european union have made the first step. they use this for ukrainian needs. we believe this is a good sign and a first step. we continue this discussion legally and politically on how to organize these person assets. >> the conversation right now is about profits from these assets but what he is talking about is seizing the underlying assets -- underlying assets themselves.

this would fund ukraine for a long time. not a surprise that the ukrainians went up but joe biden and the u.s. wants that. they want to make meaningful steps at progress in finding out how they can use that. they said they could threaten the euro as the reserve currency. if there is ever an exception for that, it can be in times of war. >> all live in brussels for us this morning. walking us through that rosen russian asset picture and basically what we are keeping an eye on. i want to bring up some of the other stories making news around the world. especially to be -- especially geopolitical space. ireland's minister unexpectedly resigns. he suffered two heavy referendum defeats which he took full response ability. he will stay on a joy successor is chosen.

antony blinken will be visiting israel later this week to continue efforts to protect civilians in gaza. that is if israeli forces enter real. lincoln is on his sixth middle east tour since israel and hamas began boring. they are due in egypt today. the swiss national bank do to make their first decision of the year. some things say we could be in for a surprise cut. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. a central bank will visit this week.

we kicked off with the boe coming up at 12:50. that means there is going to be a lot of volatility in the bond market and the effect space as well. this kick off our coverage with what to expect from the bla. lizzy joining me now. we had an uptick in some of the inflationary numbers. how much of that change is what we expect from the boe today? >> the services number was not what they want to but it was good news in terms of the headline level of cpi yesterday. maybe it doesn't change the picture. just encouraging news that it is moving toward the 2% target. with that in mind, yesterday you saw traders raising their bets for rate cuts from the boe but not by much. they still see too because this year fully priced. maybe with a third in play. even then, city economists say that they already left it too late.

in terms of the decision today, if you think it is going to be a snooze nest, the place i encourage you to look at is displayed. maybe another three way split. maybe we lose one of the hawks in the form of jonathan haskell leaving catherine. the soul and pc member to be taken for a hike. she just had another term on the npc confirmed. if you see an even more dovish surprise hsbc says it is increasingly energetic. sterling has been the best performing g10 currencies against the dollar this year on that higher for longer narrative. it is a dovish surprise. hsbc asks whether or not that could last. request lizzy burden walking us through a preview for the boe. she says it won't be a snooze fest. i believe her. not the only central bank reporting this morning. the swiss national bank is as

well. this is where a lot of the market is focus. they seem to be short when you just look at this expectation of a cut from the s&p. i want to get a little bit more context here. a pleasure to have you on the program. this is not the first time they have in the past and could potentially front monday ecb or the fed when it comes to color. >> the inflation is just lower than was expected and significantly lower. want to improve -- 120%. this is definitely a strong case for them to lower rates. defrank has lost strength since the beginning of the year. they lost strength but there is some residual strength. the s&p has always been focused

on keeping the dragon check. these two things could easily make a good case for them to do a surprise cut. >> we are talking about the inflation picture. you mention currency piece. we will dive into that a little later in the show. this is coming after the recently announced departure of thomas you are in. does that change will be here for the s&p? >> kueng honestly he is at least going to try because he is just like a old-school central banker. he will make sure his succession stays out of the discussion. they will face questions about who will succeed him. there was always the case for a very long time.

he is not in the board for very long. he is still a little bit of -- a little bit out of experience. we will face interesting discussions about who will succeed him. he will focus on monetary policy. he is very likely to deflect all of them. i will leave the house in good hands and everything will be fine. that will be his main line of reasoning. >> we thank you so much for joining the program. especially when we talk about just what this means for the market. we will dive into that in a few moments. passion was just making about speaking to bloomberg after the policy decision. talking about the economic outlook and the broader european economy as well.

we are looking forward to that interview. i am joined by our senior research economist. let's start with the swiss national bank and then we go broader. the event that they could frontline the ecb in terms of rate cuts. what kind of precedent might that set? >> i think to be honest, most central banks overly because of looking at the domestic underlying inflation pressures rather than looking at it relative to central banks. they are looking at the strength of the currency. there are a few banks starting to look at a potential earlier cut. there will be quiet unusual.

the strength of the currency is 7% higher? >> that is where i feel the president might actually come through. the fact that we have to start thinking about currency impacts. not just for the swiss national bank but isn't this the exact issue the boj is having as well russian mark or hitting 120. what do we need to know about the currency piece of the equation? how does it play into the economics? >> the channel they would be looking at -- the impact on inflation but also the impact on the economy and trade and so on. there was what an interesting dynamic for the boj. we saw the package of ultra easing policy settings unwound. a broad range of missions. not just a move away from negative interest rates. it was why sisi and etf

purchases. the yen weakens. a lot of this news was already priced in. the changes from the boj were preannounced. this had already been priced into some extent. there was some speculation ahead of time but it is just 10 basis points. we still have a world of very accommodative policy at the boj. that doesn't make a meaningful change to the relative value. >> after the boj there was so much emphasis on what the federal reserve would do. let's dive into that a little bit more. as we are listening to this press conference, the initialize they came -- my initial rate was that it was a hawkish tilt but they said inflation is taking higher a little bit. we can wait a little bit longer

for cuts. when you look to the bond market, they dove right into the bond story. the bid there was great dovish. connect those dots for me. twice he was a bit more neutral because he did talk about potentially delaying or cutting sooner and it really depends on the underlying wage pressures. what is happening with wages? and then there were some bumps on the road they decided to look through. there was a lot of talk about what happened to the core cpi in january and february. a slightly bumpy path. those numbers tend to be quiet volatile. if you look going further, we have seen a lot of improvement in the last 18 months in terms of the inflation path. some of that is disinflation, deflation. those are the base effects. the multipurpose -- multi-priced

base effects. the labor market has been incredibly tight. the trade-off on unemployment inflation hasn't occurred. it has been so bad. ultimately it seems that going forward if we look at measures such as the employment cost index and a wage tracker, these are all moving in the right direction. they also show signs of which pressures easing off. underlying core inflation such as shelter. also, private-sector events. they are also indicating city deceleration. it does look like we could see korff epc heading into a 3.2 or 3.5% later on this year may be. >> i love the nitty-gritty. i want to go into that but you initially said this was a neutral rating. for the bond market because it was dovish.

>> i think what i was saying this really was in terms of the signaling from chair powell, i think it is interesting the signal from the dots. if we look back there specifically, we obviously still have three cuts in the dots but it was quiet a close call. i think you can see there is some disparity across the members. chris lizzy burden talked about this as well. division in the boe. the division and the fed now, does that make a little bit more sensitivity to each guest? absolutely. each individual fed speak and the data coming out. this will drive whether there is going to be some -- there could be a debate even if it is delayed. i think that is what the bond market is picking up on. even if chair powell was trying to be neutral and suggestion we

will look through this inflation print. i think the overall balance there is focusing on the dots. >> i get it. we are all obsessed with the dot plot. i could talk to you for hours. the senior research economist. we thank you so much for joining us this morning. 20 mourad. we talk about the boe, the fed, the s&p. we will dive into more of the details next. stick with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think this is a signal in the market is taking it is that that they will tell already slightly higher longer. >> it is little bit higher than many thought it there talk about raising rates.

>> i think this is a fed that really wants that soft landing to continue. >> they are also not willing to raise rates again. i think that is important. five so we still think we are going to talk -- we are going to cut rates this year. >> it is much closer to two cut scenario. but they did not go with that at all. neither did the market narrative. >> i think what is driving out is that i that he thinks the monetary policy is going to restrict us. >> bloomberg best reacting to the comments around the decision . others would call it changing the game. there is another central bank that we are doing it. i want to bring you a couple of chartier. i want to talk about this move

we talk about in the swiss bank. you are seeing some of those shorts really built up. as we get closer and closer to a decision, the cost and shorting is going up more and more. that is the positioning of this market. that is why this potential surprise cut is so important. take a look at how it is showing up in the options market. the cost to hedge against that story for the fed is getting more and more expensive. that is why this is so important. we actually haven't seen this get this expensive in about a year. that is where you are looking at all this volatility in the swiss franc. i want to focus on this bike in the line that you are seeing relative to the error, relative to the dollar. they are looking for what the swiss franc actually does in terms of being that safe haven currency.

just so they can focus on that even more. that will be the conversation and themes we explore in the next couple of hours. a: 30 am u.k. time is when the decision comes as well. we will have an inclusive interview over at the s&p. we will be hearing from philipp hildebrand coming up around 9:00 a.m.. a lot to digest. don't go anywhere. guy johnson and and edward joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. >> there a very few global okay, that's uncalled for.

companies that can afford not to trade.

these companies need to obey european regulations. that is not surprising but often these companies choose that they will extend the european standards across a global production because they want to avoid the cost of complying with multiples. there are benefits to standardization and uniform production. we just need to regulate the single market and extend the market forces and business incentives of global companies that transform that eu role. anna: good morning from london, this is bloomberg "markets today." the cash trade just less than an hour away.