tv Bloomberg Markets BLOOMBERG March 22, 2024 12:30pm-1:01pm EDT
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vonnie: i'll come to "bloomberg markets -- welcome to "bloomberg markets." the rally taking a breather on friday, heading towards it's best week of 2024. the federal reserve should be able to cut interest rates as soon as june. let's get a quick check on the markets and where we stand. the s&p 500 is up 3% on the week already. today we are taking a little bit of a breather. we are talking 1/10 of 1%.
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the nasdaq 100 is not even following suit. flat on the day, the two-year yield is down, continuing to reprice the whole curve. bitcoin is down another 3%, continuing to take away some of that wealth. let's get some midday movers on the equity side. shares taking a hit as it response to a growing challenge. one sportswear retailer expected to fall by low single digits in the first half of the fiscal year. shares of lululemon having their worst days since 2020. that number for them, it was not a good year. today that's after seeing a shift in the shopping behavior of their high-end u.s. consumer, driving a lower-than-expected sales outlook. tesla shares a late lower after reducing production in china according to people familiar with the matter. staff have been asked to work only five days a week instead of
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the typical 6.5 days per week. tesla has seen sluggish growth in the electric vehicle sales in the world's biggest auto market. finally, read it with $8 million valuation for the company. almost one third of the shares sold in the ipo were owned by executives and employees. let's dig into reddit a little more. it's an interesting story that we have with amy or. amy, we held onto some of those gains. it was not a situation where we saw a massive gain on the first day of trading and it faded away. she are actually sort of holding on to some, here. what's behind that? amy: natural volatility, given 8% of the shares given to reddit yours -- redditors.
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with direct shares, gives rise to volatility. facebook lot half of their value in the first three months of trading, deliverables down 30%. the fact that reddit is still holding above the ipo price, it's doing pretty well. do we know what kind of short position is outstanding out there on the reddit -- out there? on the reddit threads, there was a stated intention to go shorter. there's been a lot of talk of -- amy: there's been a lot of talk of short positions. typically they're not out in the first two days or so, but the stock exchange has been working to speed up the process. we can expect more volatility next week, going over. vonnie: how do we know how to value a company like this? there's one analyst listed, but no rating. amy: analysts have done the work
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, but haven't come out with reports, guiding towards 20% growth, which the company reported last year in terms of revenue. going forward midterm into long-term, it will be 30% to 40%. reddit has been relying on advertising for the past 18 years or so and it's only at the beginning of this year that they started to have ai licensing deals, capturing revenue from that. going forward, it's going to be diversified it terms of revenue. vonnie: from yesterday's reporting in the afternoon, do we know the percentage or the amount of spending there was, how much of it was supported by underwriters? amy: well, it's hard to actually say. i have to say that in this range in a normal ipo process, if it is not below $34, that is the ipo price, underwriters don't normally step in, because there
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will be a natural base. at the end of the day, they want to just sell the shares to people buying at a higher costs. at this range, i don't see underwriters coming in saying we need to prop this up. vonnie: shares are down 4%, but they were down almost 8% early on and as you say, it is trading below $40 per share, holding onto gains. amy, thank you so much. let's discuss broader market moves with alan hayes and. when you see ipos like the one you saw yesterday, do you focus on the market being healthy? or that this is an unproven company with a huge amount of demand and perhaps this market isn't the safest right now? i think that when you look at the ipo market, you have to look at stock in terms of its own merits, revenue, and profitability. but it is a referendum on the
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health of the equity market and between yesterday and today, you are seeing very healthy ipo action in the aftermarket for a number of stocks. this was true last week as well. this says it was a healthy market that can absorb a lot of excess stock coming to market. investors are optimistic and are willing to give companies the benefit of the doubt, even if they have limited history. in general, it's a positive signal for the market overall, including for broadening out. vonnie: it might seem that there is a bit of denial going on, that we are not taking into account all the things that could go wrong in the next six months. ellen: the s&p 500 is up 10% year to date. it's the middle of march. that would be a good year in the average equity market world. i don't think that we continue
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to see this kind of optimism and i will and's as removed -- at ebuillance. market is a little bit vulnerable and expensive. looking at it on a market cap basis, it's a bit expensive and is at risk of an air bubble that could be caused by anything. one thing we are watching is consumer delinquencies on the credit card front. we are watching jobs, course. the commercial real estate world. right now none of those things are big enough were significant enough to cause the equity market to go off trend. investors are optimistic as evidenced by the year-to-date return. vonnie: you know, one of the problems is companies have been following through. for the most part, corporate earnings season went very well. the last several seasons have been performing well. then you see something like
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lululemon or nike. how much is that company specific? ellen: it's difficult to tell. nike and lululemon have strong histories and demands. in the case of nike, it was trading pretty expensive and it wouldn't take much of a hiccup for that to come back down to earth. you did see them slow down and it wasn't the first quarter. they also missed in the december quarter when it came to expectations. it looks as though some smaller competitors are nipping at their heels. the same could be said of lululemon. in this case those are representative of stocks that are bit expensive. optimistic, given the long track records. as a result, when something goes wrong, you see a significant decline. vonnie: how much are you advising people to hedge their bets and have something safe going on in their poor folio?
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where is that for you and your clients? ellen: you need to have a barbell portfolio. the semiconductor names and software names, absolutely. they are reasonably valued. i wouldn't say they are cheap, but they are reasonably valued and the growth is there, the demand is there, you need to balance that with value. particularly for dividend paying stocks. last year value took it on the chin. even january and february of this year value took it on the chin compared to growth. but the market has broadened out. small caps, outperforming, mid-caps, outperforming. value, outperforming. the broadening of the market is very healthy. you want exposure to the quality , but also the value and
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dividend factor. it gives you a balanced approach. especially since after such a lousy year last year, value doesn't have far to fall if there's a hiccup. vonnie: what is the next message the fed wants to get out there? ellen: i thought it was interesting that they didn't talk about the balance sheet, really, which is where investors in the market our focus right now. the dot plot ended up to be -- being a yawner. people are looking for 1, 2, 3 cuts this year, and the market has caught up with the fed and we didn't get much conversation at all about the balance sheet, even though chair powell had said we would be focusing on the balance sheet at this week's meeting. i don't doubt that they focused on it. we will find out in the minutes, one way or another. that's something investors are
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very focused on. another takeaway is that to me, anyway, the fed is willing to focus on job growth and sacrifice a little on inflation. they increased inflation numbers, growth numbers, lowered unemployment numbers, signaling that if push comes to shove, we will let inflation run a little bit hot as long as we keep job growth grow -- going. vonnie: ellen, thank you for your time today. ellen: thank you. vonnie: coming up, the feud between bob iger and nelson peltz heats up with a board vote. this is bloomberg. ♪
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vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." we are watching shares of disney after the ceo bob iger guided the company through one of its worst slumps in history. now he faces another challenge, the possible addition of nelson peltz to the board of directors. chris palmeri has been covered is the four years. chris, it boggles the mind, a situation like that, who is winning the endorsement race right now? chris: if you had asked me earlier this week, i would have said bob iger, he really was the winner of a lot of key endorsements. george lucas, jamie dimon, members of the disney family who had been critical of him in the past supported him. proxy advisors, all going into this meeting.
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yesterday, a monkey wrench. one of the largest proxy advisors came out in support of peltz. as did some board members. it made the contest a little bit more iffy. vonnie: yeah, what are they endorsing him for? what would he do on the board? chris: p issued a 133 page white paper making a lot of criticism of disney, much of which is valid. they have done poorly over the last five years. he was light on specific things he's saying he would do. as a part of his campaign he has done a lot of media interviews and people have pointed out that that is often the case with him, he doesn't have a lot of specific ideas but has joined the boards of big companies and things have improved after he has gotten on those boards.
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that is sort of his pitch. the big thing is ceo succession, which without a doubt is the bungled in recent years and bob iger had to come back. that's one of the things he's pushing hard. vonnie: bob iger came up with a plan, has been talking to different people, lots of different ideas for how the company should strategize from here. does peltz know everything that iger is planning? is he forecasting what iger might do? with a b on the same page if they just had a conversation? chris: in a way, they had been. but since peltz became involved, iger has taken a number of steps, things that peltz has been calling for. for example, cost-efficient sees , seven point $5 million in costs, restoring the dividend. they are definitely talking more openly about the succession process and what they are doing, which is another thing, special
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committees and outside executive or's, things that peltz said they should be doing. they are addressing that and you are seeing the results in the disney performance in their streaming business. huge losses -- one billion to 200 million. disney pounding the table saying that this year it would be profitable. bob iger has all of that coming into the annual meeting. vonnie: we are only two weeks away, at this point. what should shareholders keep in mind? chris: i think we will continue to see more endorsements. for example, michael eisner, coming out to support iger and the board today. we will see some more announcements from disney, like the one this week where they said the taylor swift movie was the most-watched music movie on disney plus ever. more announcements like that. we will see some maybe calipers
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vonnie: this is "bloomberg markets." time for the wall street beat. today we are looking at the deputy cio of credit at apollo. zito showed the ambitions of apollo to reshape itself can apollo's markets. -- a broader credit markets. started as a distressed debt trader and now seems to own the market. what is the turning point that turned him into a superstar? >> his evolution started around 20 19, essentially apollo global management built its name on
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global distressed debt, value investing, and it sort of be that1 saw -- that zito saw an opportunity in making loans to distressed company and he led the charge, had that idea, transforming the firm into something very different than it was 10 years ago. vonnie: and now he's a possible contender to take over the whole firm at some wing. he is known outside the firm for being accessible and decisive. all you need, right, along with technical skills? allison: exactly. people talked about apollo, john zito, and his boss, being quick to execute and with what we have seen happen with the banks in the last couple of years, if you are a corporate borrower and you have a need for money fairly quickly, perhaps with some complexity around your situation , knowing exactly who to call
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and what their answer is going to be fairly quickly is really prized. vonnie: if you are him and thinking about the longer-term, because you know someone like that has a five-year plan, a 10 year plan, a two day plan, how do you plan to run something the size of apollo after he expands the unit he is in now to double what it is? allison: their overall form -- firm has a goal of 20 trillion in asset management by 2026. currently 200 50 billion. credit will be a key part of that. it's their job to continue growing credit assets under management and continuing to make sure that the performance is good, the quality is good, it's a scalable business, and that will be the key to his future at the firm regardless of title. vonnie: there are broader questions here about the ballooning size of apollo. what are the risks now that it
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looks like it's getting much more into direct lending? a bank, almost. allison: it does act like a bank and this is something regulators have been thinking more about in the industry, broadly. apollo is a part of that, but they are not the only firm. it's a question that regulators are contending with. what do we do with big alternative asset managers? what constraints should go on them that they don't already have because they are already becoming so important as lenders. vonnie: ties to middle east investment vehicles and so on, they have very much helped john zito, right? allison: very much so, the relationship there is significant. the sovereign wealth fund has given the firm a lot of money and has been key in driving their ambitions for private credit. as much as apollo has its own balance sheet, they are providing a balance sheet, too.
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pension investors have been running short on capital to allocate to alternative investments and the middle east sovereign wealth funds have stepped in to fill the gap. vonnie: i would urge everyone to read the story, it's fascinating and a great read. that is allison mcnealy. all right, let's get a check on the markets as we head towards the weekend. don't forget, next week will be shortened by the holiday. a couple of indexes i wanted to point out, not huge moose today, but interestingly the sox is up this week. the s&p 500 gaining this week, it's been a fantastic week for them, but what i also thought was interesting is that the retail index isn't going anywhere, but not going down either. we've seen plenty of news recently about softer consumers or problems for certain companies like lululemon and nike. the retail index is also up 3%
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this week, if you can believe that. taking a look at where we stand in the broader market, the s&p 500 is down 1/10 of 1%. the yen is trading above 151, plenty of weakness there, and we have come off a little bit on crude oil and natural gas. that is it for "bloomberg markets." this is bloomberg. ♪ so you need a tax-optimized portfolio. at creative planning, our money managers and specialists work together to make sure your portfolio and wealth are managed in a tax-efficient manner. it's what you keep that really matters. why not give your wealth a second look? book your free meeting today at creativeplanning.com. creative planning -- a richer way to wealth.
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