haidi: welcome to "daybreak australia." markets have just come online. annabelle: the top stories this hour, futures signaling a positive start for the asian session as wall street returns to record highs. yen traders on edge after japanese intervention warnings. haidi: president xi urges u.s. business chiefs to invest in china saying his team can handle any problems facing the economy. annabelle: plus, south korea and india failed to make the cut for klee -- key global block indexes. stocks on the sidelines of the six more months. let's kick off this morning with how we are seeing u.s. futures coming online, fairly flat so

far in the early moments. but it was yet another record high in the session. we saw u.s. stocks rising at what has really driven moves over the past few months. because of course we're at the end of the first quarter it has been an expectation of rate cuts we are going to see three perhaps over the course of the year. that was certainly the trading dynamic. we saw big tech leading gains. the lapse of apple gaining. nvidia still under pressure. what could be pouring some cold water perhaps on the narrative is what we have heard from the fed governor christopher waller in the last few minutes, saying the fed should delay or perhaps even reduce the number of rate cuts as well given we are continuing to see strength in the u.s. economy. that is perhaps a bit of a shadow we are getting here. haidi: take a look as we round up what is going to be a holiday shortened trading week in a lot of asian markets ahead of the easter long weekend.

this is the picture when it comes to the asx 200, a couple minutes into the start of a staggered session. health care and particular at the moment. the aussie dollar pretty steady, a little bit of weakness at 65.23. those comments on economic resilience from xi jinping not adding a great deal of confidence and it comes to the china proxy. having a look at how we are setting up and it comes to japan. of course the currency is what we are going to be focusing on. if you look at how neat a few futures are setting up at the moment we are looking pretty positive. let's call it flat at the moment. we will see how that session continues but the yen is firmly above the 151 level. take a look at this chart. which really illustrates potentially how much of a headache the resilience in the dollar is going to continue to be when it comes to japanese policymakers warning against too much weakness in the yen. rebounding from a 34 year high.

it had weakened wednesday but traders have been pretty rattled with that over three decade low, sparking japan's warning saying it is ready to stem the slide. we saw the message being heeded initially. the question is whether that will continue to have an effect. marco wilson joins us now -- michael wilson joins us now. can policymakers do too much? >> the bank of japan wants to protect their virtuous cycle. [indiscernible] rates are negligible.

as long as that is more les preserved, that is enough if productivity in the states in returns on stocks are maintained. that is enough to attract people to a dollar above 150. almost challenging the ministry of finance to pull up. we have seen reaction to strong jawboning from them. just to take one thing at a time. within the next hour we have the summary opinions from the last meeting. you might see what was said there to set the tone for the rest of the day. but after that, i suppose price action has been a bit perverted in the short-term. there are big barriers just above the market.

the dollar bulls really want to see that taken out. that could actually be the trigger for intervention. they are not based on anything fundamental. it is a synthetic driver. that would cause the ministry of finance to act. it is a long weekend. half of europe will be out friday. at the same time it is the last day of the japanese financial year. i would watch monday if we were anywhere 152 plus. again, it is no holiday in half of europe so they might use the opportunity to act and get more bang for their buck. so we could come in on a tuesday when trading properly resumes with a lot longer dollar-yen. annabelle: i am curious even if we see a formal intervention like we had at the end of 2022,

with that actually last that long? michael: i think there are just as many people waiting to buy the dip. there are some good levels, that 146.50, a couple bottoms there. if they checked prices or something like that you might see a move down there. that is 500 points. if i were to trickle that, it could go to the hundred day moving average. i think that will add to those longs and the people will jump in the pool at that stage and load up because as long as that dynamic is protected of the spread i think we will have buys on dips. would not have any prolonged effect but i would say weeks at

the very most before the rally resumed. annabelle: great insights. that was michael wilson. let's shift to china because president xi jinping made his pitch to a group of u.s. ceo's to invest in the country. he met with executives in beijing including blackstone and qualcomm's. >> the respective successes of china and the u.s. are opportunities for each other. as long as both sides regard each other as partners, respect each other, live in peace and cooperate for a win-win result, china u.s. relations will become better. annabelle: for more, our correspondent stephen engle joins us live where china is hosting an economic forum. it seemed like xi came into the meeting with a message that china is open for business. how do you think it rears -- how

do you think it was really received by the business community given all the concerns? stephen: the fact those business leaders were in china for the china development forum, some of whom have since come down here as we wrap up tomorrow, that is because they want to get a clear message from china and there is no better way than to get an audience with the top man. so much consolidation of power has led to him being the arbiter, if you will, of messaging. look, he is smiling. when xi jinping walks into a room he commands respect no doubt, but he does not necessarily light up the room with his smile. one thing that stood out to me was he was congenial and engaging. he took and answered questions. he had a discussion, by all accounts. i did see a tweet by the president of the u.s. national committee on u.s. china relations. we are trying to get him on

bloomberg television. come on down here and join us. because he tweeted out, i just sat through a meeting between president xi and u.s. ceo's and other leaders. xi made a compelling case for why the u.s. and china must cooperate. we were all deeply impressed and recommitted to building a cooperative u.s.-china relationship. again, this is from a man who was there. in the group photo he was standing right next to xi jinping. again, access is very key. as xi jinping himself said, exchanges are the key to rebuilding this fractured u.s.-china relationship. haidi: steve, we have already had some great conversations there. what is on the agenda today for you? stephen: we are going to continue those great conversations hopefully. we are going to have a few more of the chinese members here who are at boao. in the next half-hour so we are going to have richard mcgregor,

senior fellow for asia. we are going to talk the xi meeting, as well as the overall situation geopolitically. as you can also see, we are going to talk to the world's two biggest multinational development lenders, scott morris, vice president of the east asia, southeast asia and the pacific. and then at 8:30 this morning, president of the china-based aiib, the asia infrastructure investment bank. and then henry wong, also a prominent voice here in china from the center of china and globalization, the founder and president. a lot of good discussions coming up on our final day covering the boao forum here. haidi: our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle there. coming up, ftse russell holds off on adding south korea and

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annabelle: we are wrapping up

the first quarter of trading taking a look at some of the ways we are ending on a bit of a high note. we have seen a number of assets that have reached record levels during the first three month of the year. you have the likes of bitcoin, gold, cocoa, a bit of a shame for anyone celebrating easter. certainly a number of markets as well. japan, australia, indonesia, also the u.s. s&p 500. let's discuss the outlook as we approach the second quarter of trading and bring in our guest, margie patel, senior portfolio manager for allspring global investments. so much of this has been predicated on expectations for a fed rate cut. what do you think is going to be the key catalyst for markets going into the second quarter? margie: once again i think it is going to be more the quarterly earnings reports are. we have had three quarters in a row where the earnings have surprised on the upside.

so far, listening to companies in between the quarters, it looks as if the first quarter this year is also going to be pretty strong. i would say that weighs more heavily than what the fed does. if they make a quarter-point cut i don't think that is is as important -- annabelle: we have seen some analysts revising expectations a little lower for earnings growth. it seems like you are not exactly in that camp. margie: i think we can see the economy looks like it is growing modestly. but we have had little dips before. for the last two years ever since the fed has begun to raise rates, people have underestimated the strength of the economy. i think they are still doing that. they are still weighing the f ed's influence way too much

for the fundamentals. we will see, but if profit margins go down of the and revenue goes up, we are in the same position. stronger-than-expected. haidi: that positivity extends to the growth sensitive names like tech? margie: yes. i think tech is going to continue to be a leader. but it has to be supported by growth. we have seen apple have a stumble where they seem to have fallen down of the favorite seven. unless a company can show continued earnings, i think we will see those drop off. basically larger cap companies, particularly inditex space, will have very strong earnings. also industrials we think will do surprisingly well. we think that tech, industrials, will probably be the leading sectors. haidi: how do you play the domestic geopolitical risk as we head into november?

margie: i don't think there is actually a tremendous amount of risk in the economy. because when you look at the u.s. economy, basically all sectors look pretty healthy. there is no step there you can point to that looks very vulnerable or likely to go into a bad state if the fed raises rates. so that helps support earnings. i think because the fed has -- we might see treasury yields be a bit above where we think they should be compared to inflation or economic growth. so that might make stocks of the rich. but i think it is just because treasuries are burdened down with a very heavy supply. haidi: are you wanting much international exposure at the moment? margie: really, it looks as though the u.s. is owing to be one of the growth leaders. i think we will have growth of

2.5 to 3% which is exceeding the growth of most european countries and most developed countries including japan. and china's growth, they are talking 5% is what they estimate. the margin between the u.s. and other countries is pretty narrow, and that tells me that the u.s. is going to continue to be a leader because of the strength of the economy. haidi: margie patel from allspring global investments. you can get a roundup of the stories you need to know in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can find that at dayb and on the mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. you can customize your settings so you just get the news that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: ftse russell is holding off on adding south korea and india to their global bond indexes. the nations will continue to stay on their watch list. let's bring in our asia fx and rates reporter who year and kim. we know india and korea it really want to see this inclusion happening but it did not take effect this time around. so what happened exactly? >> the ftse russell, one of the global index providers, has held back adding india and south korea to its key global and emerging markets bond indexes once again. delaying the countries' wait by

at least another six months. the decision comes not as a very big surprise, to be honest. because talking to a lot of global investors, they have said that they don't expect -- that it would be too early for the countries to be added to the indexes this month. in the case of korea, the government has made a lot of changes so far in improving global access to its local markets. but a lot of the changes are still underway. most notably the government will be extending the local trading hours in july. so global investors will look at that and see how that works out before they decide whether korea is indeed accessible or not. for india, not a lot of changes have been made since september

when ftse held back adding the country to its indexes in the last review. so overall, the results were not that surprising. outside of korea we have india, and we have vietnam and pakistan. vietnam will keep its status as frontier market and pakistan will stay on the watchlist for potential demotion to frontier market status from secondary emerging markets. haidi: when is the next review, and do we expect progress to be made before then? i know south korea has made some efforts to open its markets to foreign investors. hooyeon: ftse russell does these reviews twice a year. once in march and once in september. global investors have said korea

will have a better chance to be added to the index in september. so, if it does make it into the index, the korean government has said, citing global investors, that the index inclusion could lure about $70 billion into the local bond market. so that is a positive. but even if it doesn't make it into the index in september, the general view is that the company is headed into the inclusion at some point. so, generally speaking, whether or not it is included in september or not, we're expecting some additional bond inflows into the country. haidi: our asia fx and rates reporter hooyeon kim. let's look at some other stories we are following. janet yellen has slammed china's use of subsidies to give its manufacturers in new industries

a competitive edge. she told msnbc that state support starts the global economy as she plans to press china in an upcoming visit. she wants a constructive dialogue with beijing on the issue rather than threatening retaliation. annabelle: nissan says it is confident for china's strategy of developing ev's locally is the right one for the market. the senior vice president told us more about balancing a regional strategy in china while competing globally in other markets. >> regional size is what matters. for china, nissan is something that is working very well and we will be launching in china over the next years. energy vehicles completely developed and localized and produced by our chinese for china business. then elsewhere in the u.s., in europe, or in our japan

business, we're trying to leverage regional scale where it can. we have a very big presence in north america, both in the u.s., canada, and mexico. there is enough volume to generate the economies to become competitive. being competitive just means having cars at the right price for customers to be happy. >> it plays into this discussion we are having, can you generate global scale when it feels like these markets are becoming increasingly regional? i want to understand, and i will ask you direct -- what happens if we get the former president coming into power, and he does not just put big tariffs on what is happening in byd and mexico, he just puts up walls and chess everything down. if we shut down the global auto market becomes heavily regionalized. does that change what you do, or is the market already moving in this direction? >> i think the market is moving.

with covid and a semiconductor crisis, we have become much more knowledgeable and careful as to how logistics routes are set up across industry. we've been thinking about dual sourcing and more insuring of the activities. that is a trend we want to continue. building where you sell is a recipe for success in this industry. and so, we're obviously very committed to making investments in north america that will help manufacture all the vehicles that will be sold here. haidi: that was the nissan motor svp speaking with our colleague. coming up, christopher wilcox says his outlook on japan. take a listen to how the hike could impact their business. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think the fed's view is if inflation is more stubborn than they want, they will keep rates at the current level longer. i do not think the fed is thinking on hiking anymore. i think they think they are done. annabelle: that fed was the former fed vice chair. we just heard from the fed governors saying there is no rush and perhaps fed rate cuts could be delayed or reduced the number anticipated by officials. heading into the end of the first quarter, you can see a lot of optimism coming through in the aussie session. we are also looking at the

outlook for japanese markets. fairly flat so far, u.s. futures likewise. another record that we are seeing. a big focus on the japanese yen. the 151 mark. the question is when will we see a formal intervention? not really doing much to dissuade traders at this point in time. haidi: parts of asia need to decide what their priorities are. let's get some more on that and some analysis on the bank of japan's path post lift off. >> we have chris willcox, the host of wholesale banking. welcome. make you for joining us. it has been such an intense time

for japan's financial market. we have the boj raising rates. what impact has that head on your business? chris: there is a real sense that there is some change in the japanese economy. that has led to a very different sentiment. japan has been the most exciting market on the globe in the last year. as a japanese institution that can bring japan markets to the rest of the world, it has been a really good period. it makes us relevant. i can get any meeting i want right now to talk about japan because most people in the world have an interest in this market. joyce: let's talk about the yen, the lowest level since 1990. how much speculation do you see in the market? the possibility of an intervention in the currency

market? chris: it is a big story right now but the yen has been flirting with weakness for a while. . our forecast is for the yen to strengthen. we think it should head back toward 140. primarily driven by the force of the fed easing further down the road and somewhat tighter japan policy. we think the medium-term picture would be for a sprightly stronger yen. right now it is flirting with its lowest levels ever. central banks tend to intervene and can surprise the market and we are talking about it now. they would prefer to talk rather than act but you never know. joyce: how much speculation do you see in the market right now? chris: a bit. it is obviously a big story. for us, the big picture is we are seeing a lot of foreign

interest in the japan equity markets and other parts of japan. the yen is not a totally standout issue. joyce: thank you. let's talk about business. you had a solid quarter and it puts the business on track -- there is still a gap to the 130 billion yen profit to achieve by next year. how confident are you in achieving this target? chris: this year has been an interesting year. it has has some pluses and minuses. for us, it is very much a rebuild year. there is a number of parts of our business we have restructured and reengineered to set us up for success in the medium-term, including next year. if you think about that, from when i took over the business, which was october 2022, we have

incrementally improved all of those businesses on each quarter for five quarters in a row. we feel very good about the direction of the business and the actions we have taken. we have focused on globalizing our business and taking globalization to the next level. we have focused on retaining talent in our business which has been an important part of our success. what we are really driving through now is a very structured and data-driven focus on clients. we have built some amazing capabilities and now we need to make sure we are very effective at taking them to clients. we will need good markets, clearly over the last few years there have been some periods where the markets have been challenging. we have gone against that trend by growing our wallet share and our market share.

predictions are always dangerous but we feel very confident. joyce: a couple things i wanted to -- haidi: a couple of things i want to get your response to. some markets have been more challenging. do you feel like the number of bankers you have is the right size or do you see the need potentially for more adjustments? chris: we have made a lot of adjustments this year but if you look at the head count around my business, it is roughly flat. looking forward into the next year, we expect that to be the same. what that disguises is a very significant upgrading of talent we have done within the business to put ourselves in a position where we feel confident about the future. we feel pretty right size right now and the opportunity is strong. haidi: how our costs looking?

-- how are costs looking? chris: if you ask any businessperson, costs are always too high. we have a publicly stated target for my business to reduce costs by $150 million. more importantly to that is the medium-term things we are doing. there are a bunch of structural changes we are making across the business that have a little bit of a j curve associated with them but that we think will feed through to a lower cost base for the firm over the next two to five years. joyce: nomura was profitable, what do you intend to do to sustain momentum? chris: the way that was achieved was something we talked about earlier. we have globalize the business.

all of our lines of business have global heads. that globalization includes japan. with japan's new relevance to clients, it is an important advantage for us as a firm to take japan to our global client base, and vice versa. increasingly there is an appetite in japan for products. one thing we have done is focus on our client business. we have really good product capabilities and the client business market share has grown significantly over the year. we aim to see that continue over the next year. haidi: i wanted to ask you about private markets. what endeavor is number of making? what kind of risk assessment was that for you? chris: private markets is the big growth story. if you are not talking about

japan, you are probably talking about private markets. we have seen massive growth over the last few years. we have two different approaches in private markets. within the wholesale business, we have been focusing on the private market business we do, whether that is in the leverage finance space or in some of the asset-backed financing we do in infrastructure and power or clos and the whole of our securitized products. on the asset management size, we are making investments in building our private market capabilities. we recently announced the formation of nomura capital management in the u.s. and that is part of a medium-term strategy to focus on private markets on that side of the firm, as well. joyce: three years ago nomura

managed to convince you to come out of retirement. what do you think are the biggest changes you have made and what more is there to do? do you think about retirement these days? chris: i am certainly not retired anymore. yes, it was three years ago. i looked to take a year out and do some of the things you want to do before you get too old to do them. unfortunately, covid made that more difficult than i thought it would be and i was looking for a job, anyway. i think i had a number of firms approaching me at that time and nomura was the one i chose to go with, mainly because i felt the determination of the senior management to invest in their business and grow their business was very inspiring. it was an easy choice to make at the time, although, optically, i

was walking into a challenging situation. i think that was a great decision. i'm not really thinking about retirement anymore because i am excited about the opportunities we have. over the next few years, we have an interesting program to grow this business and i think there is change going on all the way through nomura. it is not just the wholesale business it is the retail business and the asset management business. joyce: thank you very much. chris willcox with nomura. haidi: really great conversation. coming up next, we will be back live with richard mcgregor of lowy institute. he is making his investment pitch to u.s. ceos. this is bloomberg. ♪ think about it.

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annabelle: let's head back to the forum. stephen engle is joining us again. stephen: let's kick off our programming with richard mcgregor. i have a bug flying around my eyes right now.

we heard from xi jinping in beijing. he is trying to put on a charm offensive. do you think it will work? there are conflicting messages coming from beijing. richard: absolutely. this has been the most striking thing about china, policy volatility. we love fbi. what we saw in beijing, the next day the anti-espionage law, and so forth. getting clarity of messaging has been difficult for beijing. you want to have that clarity continuing for a long time, not in short bursts. i think it will have an impact up to a point. the sort of people he had in the meeting, he is a little bit preaching to the choir. there are other people he would have to persuade. stephen: there has to be follow-through on implementation

and promises and more clarity on policy. are we getting any of that at the forum? it seems more muted than in the past. we will get -- richard: you have come for many years. i first came 20 years ago. it seems quite subdued to me. we are not getting the top people. xi is in beijing. we do not have the broad representation of business leaders, very few american voices. very few european voices. we are not hearing many messages here. it is more focused on the chinese agenda. a lot of that is a positive agenda. green energy, climate change, issues like hydrogen.

that is a global agenda. the geopolitical agenda. we are talking about geopolitics in many respects of asia. that is not pro-western. at times pretty anti-american. stephen: that is one thing that struck me. a lot of participants of the panels i have attended talked of the multilateral approach and condemned unilateralism. that is a jab at the united states. do you feel maybe this forum is too china-centric for their messaging? richard: it is hard to say. we might say that but a lot of people on the panels from russia and india -- i think the former president of slovenia is here -- they are in accord with a lot of the chinese agenda. that is something people in western countries should be aware of.

the chinese message on china leaving the global south, china saying we will place developing countries at the center of the story, the americans will not. the west rules-based order is much smaller than many people realize. i'm just giving you the chinese talking points, i am not endorsing them. we should not under estimate the power of chinese messaging. it is not just a competition of the economy and technology. it is a competition of ideas and world systems. you do not have to listen closely here to really feel that. stephen: we are hearing that janet yellen will be here next week perhaps and that she will push the chinese on the fear that there are excess capacity going to be shipped off. drive down prices and

essentially it brings up issues of dumping and the subsidies that perhaps the chinese are pumping into green energy products. energy vehicles, batteries and solar. does that open the front on another battle between china and the u.s.? richard: i think it is coming. janet yellen is the best person to deliver that message. i will not say she is a popular figure in china but she is respected. she is not considered an ideologue like some members of the biden administration. i would say she is well worth listening to. in america, i think we will see chinese ev's stocked one way or another. europe is the big game with a european investigation into subsidies or dumping. i think it is a real thing about chinese overproduction and sending it offshore. however many dozens of chinese

ev companies, they cannot all make money in china. they have to sell offshore. europe and america will push back against that. stephen: geopolitical tensions not necessarily on the back burner but they are in the south china sea, the philippines and china, taiwan, what is on your radar, geopolitically? richard: we have not heard much about taiwan here. a little bit about the philippines but nothing sort of meaty. . sorry, i have a bug, as well. i might have swallowed that one. i think taiwan is interesting. the chinese response post the january election, he was elected, he was not beijing's favorite candidate. since then, there have been no

big military response. it has been calculated, small-scale responses. that gives beijing the ability to dial it up at some stage. we have to be wary around the inauguration, which i think is in may. stephen: may 20. richard: beijing is not resting on this issue. stephen: richard mcgregor, thank you for your time. sorry about the bugs. we will try to fumigate the place. more coming up, interviews coming up from the boao forum. haidi: interviews and taking out bugs is a lot stephen engle is dealing with in boao. we will be bringing him back with more conversations from the boao forum. scott morris will be with us in the next hour. ♪ okay y'all we got ten orders coming in... big orders!

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haidi: the global landscape is changing fast with the rise of remote work, ai and an emphasis on diversity, we get his outlook on the latest episode. here is a preview of that conversation.

>> all developed countries are having less supply of labor force. in the u.s., 10 years ago, 20 years ago, the u.s. had an additional 3 million population. 2018, 2019, the u.s. had almost zero working age population. in japan the number of working age population is decreasing. >> recruit is a company with glassdoor.com. recruit acquire the site 10 years ago for $1 billion. with that acquisition comes a deep pool of data on the job market. >> work is still strong. jobseekers started to look for remote work jobs or flexible jobs. that is a big trend where we can

-- we compare before covid and after covid. a number of job postings with remote work is shrinking a little bit but still way higher. haidi: you can see the discussion in full on latitude beginning this thursday here on bloomberg television. hearing from recruit holdings and their focus on wages, the boj summary of opinions has been coming out for the march policy meeting, that historic meeting where we saw the hike in rates and the take away are getting is this is not a shift, at least one member is saying this, toward a timing regime. the achievement had come into sight. we will want to delve into the details. it seems like a cautious policy stance coming through, given -- yes, it was a hike but it was a dovish hike.

that has led to the currency witness. you have the dollar strength that is continuing to hold with the expectation fed rate cuts might not be around the corner. the japanese yen, fairly steady off that. important meeting minutes. haidi: it is a crucial set of meeting minutes because we want to get a little more context in terms of what the boj members are thinking. the messaging and the amount of what they did really having negligible market impact in terms of any huge volatility in both the currency and equity markets. that popular trade we are seeing with the yen and the nikkei has continued to the point that the divergence being perceived between the fed and the boj is at a point where we have seen intervention to try to prevent any further weakness in the yen. it is unlikely the summer is likely to change that. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this is "daybreak asia." we are counting down to asia's major market openings. if the latest boj meeting minutes are anything to go by, we could see a little more weakness to come in the currency. haidi: it certainly does not change the narrative that the bank of japan is not in a hurry. they are cautioned and not wanting to take this too quickly. it feels more than ever that lift off is more symbolic than anything. you could argue this was the messaging they wanted to get across the entire time, not create too many le