kailey: we are 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day on this monday, april 1. welcome to the second quarter. the expensive s&p 500 should be taken up your worry list but wall street is on edge ahead of the tesla quarterly deliveries. expectations for the even makers delivery figures and we will preview what to expect and tesla is the worst performer in the s&p 500 so far this year. a food inflation check with fritz holdings which owns restaurant chains. the ceo joins us in a minute. ♪ ♪

kailey: welcome to bloomberg markets. katie: take a look at markets on the first trading day of the second quarter and there is green on the screen behind me. the s&p 500 is up about one just 0.1%. the nasdaq 100, the big tech benchmark is higher by about 0.7% even though we are seeing a pretty meaningful rise in yields to start this morning. the 10 year yield is currently up about 10 basis points or so. this is amid some breaking news with a lot of economic data crossing the terminal. michael mckee is here to break it down. mike: we have bond yields rising because we have the first positive reading for the ism manufacturing index in september of 2022. it comes in at 50.3, up from a

significant beat and new orders crossed, going up to 51.4. production is also up. employment rises but it is up to 47.4%. prices paid rise to 55 point 8% from 52.5 so we are seeing some inflation but we are also seeing some strengthen the economy. jay powell talked about that friday. they don't have to get started right away with cutting interest rates. katie: catch us up about what we learned friday. we had pce and we heard from jay powell himself. a lot of us were working so what did we hear? mike: basically, we saw the pce inflation numbers going down still. the speed of the decline was falling off.

what howell was saying is we see that and we see the strength of the economy and we are not convinced yet that we are going to be completely on the path to the 2% target. because the economy is strong and we will get friday is jobs report friday, they can wait because they don't need to stimulate the economy is his view. with today's data, that reinforces that. katie: thank you so much and you can see the reaction in the bond market. 10 year treasury yields are currently higher by about zero point 10%. we've a great guest to delve into this. nancytengler is with us. let me start with valuations. it feels like after several months of stocks going straight up, when you want to worry about something, you worry about valuations. goldman had a note today saying

that if you put together your worry list, that's probably not something that should be on it. what you think about how expensive this market is? >> thanks for having me on this first day of the quarter. if you look at the market unless use the nasdaq is an example because everyone loves to hate tech at the moment. the nasdaq is actually down a couple of percentage points and earnings didn't do much either, up about 10%. if you look forward, we know that these other companies, the technology companies that are able to deliver reliable earnings growth if you are worried about a slowing economy. the ism numbers are pretty compelling. if i look at these companies on a valuation basis and compare them to the 1990's. it's the right analogy for this market, we are not in stressed valuation land. we are in fully valued areas but

expectations of the overall market is 10% this year and 13.5% this year. stocks trade and earnings group -- growth so once we get through the fed noise, the use cases were ai will continue to drive margins and profits and if you look at these companies on a price to sales ratio, they are not expensive at all based on history. i think investors -- this is the most unloved bull market but we are in a bull market expect it will continue with corrections along the way. nonetheless, the long-term trend will be up for the foreseeable future. katie: are we ever truly threw the fed noise? it seems that's the constant of the market. >> especially this fed. i long for the days when the members didn't talk in the fed chairman rarely spoke instead of a press conference every day. what you can use as a playbook from the 1990's.

greenspan raised rates aggressively in 1994 and a 1995, we only got three cuts and then he held -- constant in nine -- and 96. chairman greenspan appreciated the value of productivity to driving non-inflationary growth. we also had inflation about 3% for the entire decade and a 10 year that adverse 5-7% for the entire decade. if you get the right fed action and it may be wise to pull from the 1995 playbook, you can get stock appreciation coexisting with higher adjust rates in relatively higher inflation. that's where i think we are. katie: it feels there are a lot of parallels to the 1990's in terms of the price action on the market but also when it comes to the monetary policy. when you think about these tech companies, it seems everyone loves to hate them but they can

provide reliable growth when you are not necessarily getting that in the economic backdrop at you think about the environment right now and the u.s. economy is on strong footing and yet you have tech leading the way. do you see any batons being passed off to the cyclical market? >> i think we started to see it already. if you look at industrials, they have done quite well and some financials but not every financial. i think the health care play is yet to ignite. we were making those moves, increasing our exposure to industrials and financials last summer when we trimmed technology and when we got the selloff in the third quarter in technology, we went back in and added to those names. you need to anticipate as a portfolio manager. portfolio managers that say you

need staples in this environment, i don't think so. you may look at some selective utilities but generally speaking, there are better places to be overweight and that's where we are, avoid text, energy, materials and industrials. katie: would you say you are underweight staples or that is not the sector you want to be heavy in? >> we are definitely underweight staples. at the moment, we are underweight electric utilities as well. couple of interesting names we are looking at that will be beneficiaries of the ai cloud computing boom but a lot of those names we have already run so we are late on that one but we are waiting for an opportunity to get in. katie: we will take a quick look at what's moving underneath these markets with bailey. we start with the data leak? >> i am an at&t customer so hopefully my information is not out there but at&t is down 1.7%

after the company said 70 throw me -- 70 thrilled -- 73 million accounts were leaked onto the dark web. also 65 million former customers. that includes personal information such as social security numbers and that appears from 2019 or earlier, company is saying it's unknown how this happened and they will investigate it but it's never good when you have a security leak on that scale. katie: this data leak appears to be from 2019 or earlier. maybe a bit of old news and that's why the stock is not falling much more. that's some bad news there so what else you got? >> 3m is trimming by about 1% after the formal split of its health care unit sold and formally trading on the u.s. exchanges as a member of the s&p 500 but also after news there $10 billion pfast deal was approved which have been closely

watched. they have so much litigation on going. it can be one box checked as investors try to get through and understand what those settlements could look like. katie: traders are welcoming that news this morning and the stock is currently up about 1%. the final company on your list i've never heard of. >> no one has. disc medicine trade -- traded down. they treat a rare disorder that affects the spinal system and they had a strong placebo response. when the ceo said they need to conduct analysis of their final data set to work with investigators and regulars and bring in the patient advocacy groups to define the path forward, this never a good sign and that's why the stock is down 55% but that's the way biotech moves, boom or bust. katie: it feels like you will get a binary reaction either way

but it's to the downside for them. thank you so much. coming up, the s&p 500's worst performing stock so far this year, consensus trends for tesla going in the wrong direction. more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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four years. ed ludlow is sitting right beside me on set which is a treat. before we catch up, tell me what we expect from tesla. ed: based on the numbers, the average estimates that tesla will deliver 453,000. the reason this specific number is important is sequentially, the average around this estimate is a quarter on quarter decline. against the same time he year ago, that's where you want to look because there is a really wide range of estimates. they did 422000 and the first quarter of last year. if they were to come in below that this quarter, it would be the first time in a long time where year on year sales have declined. there were so many factors. it's been difficult for tesla. maybe interest rates, competition and domestic china but over all, there is concerned that this will be a tough one. katie: where is the company in

terms of its lineup? it sealed feels like elon musk over promises but in january, he was warning that tesla is between two major growth paths? ed: the vast majority of what tesla sells is model y and model three. the market for that has been and gone. they were really aggressive in lowering prices on the y in particular. i least one because the availability of incentives. his tube good to pass up and a raise prices again. there is a world out there were even $40,000 tv's are too much in the next phase of the tesla growth is this $25,000 tv but they are not there yet. at the same time, tesla raise prices again today. they said they would do that but the opposite is happening in china. they have stuck with it and continue to cut prices.

tesla is facing both market competition but also what they offer, there is a big question whether there are buyers left out there for the $60,000 ev. katie: i feel i see so many tesla's on the road. they are all over the place. who is left is a great question. talk to me about the other things like the cyber truck. ed: i went to pick up my model y last thursday in the bay area, there were a number of cyber trucks waited to be handed over but it's a small volume. it's not going to move the needle in the course of this quarter. i speak to many ceos in the ev space and they say this is the biggest problem, lack of consumer choice. think about the different types of sedans and suvs and pickup trucks you can get with combustion engines. tesla offers to anna sedan.

and then niche snx and a cyber truck so we need more types of ev's to meet the demand of the average consumer. katie: before i let you go, would tesla ever go for a hybrid? it seems that's where the consumer is now. ed: no, the hybrid has a role in this market but tesla is committed to factory electric technology and the bigger goal of advancing transition to sustainable energy. katie: great to see you in person. rumors say he will be here all week. we are back with nancy tengler. i want to debt i won't ask about tesla but i will ask you about home depot. you look at the stock performance and it's basically in-line with the s&p 500. what are you seeing around that name? >> the housing start members --

numbers were pretty optimistic as well as permits which tend to be a leading indicator. even though this stock shouldn't necessarily trade on new-home sales or housings starts, it does. it's been a pretty poor performer for the last three years and it's picked up recently. the latest transaction in the construction space will give investors potentially an opportunity to get in while the stock flattens out or digests the news. this is a name you want to own for the long term at strong dividend growth and competent management. i think they will continue to take share from lowe's particularly in the pro-business. katie: home depot made waves last week by buyingsrs distribution to go after that professional audience. when you think about home depot in relation to lowe's we talk

about the diy customer at home depot all the time but it's a good reminder that that the professional audience is very very important to them. >> it is, it's a significant portion of margins and growth. home depot dominates in that space and this puts them further ahead of lowe's i love the ceo at lowe's any denigrate job, this transaction will be pivotal and strategic for home depot over the next three-seven years. katie: so you are sticking with a winner at home depot. it's definitely performed. can't say the same for medtronic? >> i know i will be sorry i took this one but it fits our theme of old economy companies that are embracing generative ai digitization. they finally turned the corner

and should have. this was a triple play before them. earnings, revenues and raised on guidance and expectations were superlow because they have underperformed for so long. in addition, they announced five new products that are driven by ai. i think that is important as we look forward to the future of the company. they have not innovated in recent years and this is an indication that the company is poised to participate in this new economy. fingers crossed, strong dividend goa dividend growth the stored but very disappointing two years which is often the hardest time and the most important time to step into these companies katie: over the past couple of years, the stock only up about 9% and compare that to the s&p 500 which is up 100% in that time. when it comes to medtronic, it sounds like this is truly a bet on the future.

they are poised to participate in some of these themes but they are not necessarily there yet. >> that's right, we just recently added to it. we are not overweight in this sector, it's at our minimum level. along with home depot, we have names that we like the dividend growth space. we will continue to focus on them and we have technology in there as well that we focus on opportunities that fit within our meme. katie: let's talk about uber and lyft. your view is that home depot will continue to take share from lowe's. it seems like a similar duopoly to uber and lyft. who else is competing with uber

at this point? who is their serious competitor? >> i think in different segments of their businesses, there are some competitors but they've streamlined but shorn up all of the underlying businesses and turn the company to profitable. we got it had $28 a share -- we got in at 40 in the stock had been a 28 but it's 75 or 70 60 doesn't feel like a bad decision. that's the conundrum that investors have two way. relative price to share ratio in stocks that don't pay a dividend in the name was attractive and what drives our fundamental work is management and a catalyst for performance. profitability was the catalyst and that's a name we still hold and i've added to it over the past few months where the market

bottomed in october of 2022. in november, we added more. katie: it's always great to speak with you and we hope to do so soon. still ahead, we will look at the companies making the most social buzz today. this is bloomberg. ♪

katie: it's time for social climbers, look at the stocks making waves on social media this morning and first up, is it time to stick a fork in tupperware brands? it may not survive for another year because it's running out of money. the 78-year-old company has been facing higher costs for its

products, labor and logistics. next up is openai which is planning to open an office in tokyo this month. the japan office will be its first in asia as the ai pioneer starts building out its international operations. ai adoption is spreading quickly among japanese companies as the race to roll out services for japanese takers. we have ups taking a victory lap after it beat out fedex to become a primary provider of air cargo for the u.s. postal service. fedex said its agreement with the u.s. postal service will expire on september 29. you can follow all the latest company buzz on the terminal. let's clickly check on the markets. the s&p 500 is currently down about 0.1% and the nasdaq is holding on, up about 0.3% and 10 year yields are 11 basis points higher after seeing hot economic data at the top of the hour. coming up, consumers in the

restaurant business will speak to brix holdings next. feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh

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katie: coco prices have seen a steady rise over two years but they skyrocketed in march. let's look at input prices and what that means for the restaurant business with the ceo of brix holdings. they have over 300 locations across 38 states through their various brands such as friendly's and red mango. coco prices have been absolutely on fire. it's been crazy to watch. how has that filtered in through your business? >> that's a great question. we've gone through supply chain issues since the pandemic as you know. as the rest of the market has been stabilizing, we get one or

two ingredients that tend to just do an abnormal type of rise. we just have to manage through it. consumers are battle tested right now. they seem prices increase significantly in both the grocery and restaurants and at some point, we have to hold the line. we are not raising prices. katie: you will not change her miles because what's going on in coco. over the past few years, seems like every couple of months, it's one particular ingredient that seems to skyrocket. we've seen some weird movements with sugar and soybeans. outside of coco, what are your inset costs compared to the last couple of years? >> as you mentioned, proteins

and some other grains, we've seen prices have increased and they've kind of stabilized for us. they took a giant leap in 2022 and in 2023 they stabilize the it and we are really not seeing anything more than one or 2% inflation this year from ingredient perspective. that's easily manageable in terms of how we innovate and prepare the food to ensure we absorb that type of cost increase. katie: talk to me about the consumer, the battle tested consumer. it's been a crazy couple of years when you think about the hottest inflation in a generation. you are competing with eating at home or other restaurants and with grocery stores. how is the consumer coming to your restaurant now? what is the temperature check there? >> as you point out, our grocery prices and our food at home versus food away, that gap has

increased. when guests come to any restaurant, they need to expect more. they need to expect value and if that's a quick trip and you're going through the drive-through, value to you is i'm spending money because of speed and convenience. if you come to a sit down restaurant like a friendly's, you're thinking about the experience and giving my kids the best experience in a family setting. you are willing to pay a little bit more but that food, service, hospitality, everything is to be there. that's on us as restaurant tours to provide that or we will lose. katie: what degree of pricing power do you have left at this point? are you not continuing to raise prices? >> we are not. we believe we are at that inflection point. the guests have an option. they can go to the grocery store and eat at home.

it has to be something that's plausible to go out and spend some money on not just a special occasion but go out once or twice a week to your favorite restaurant. we are at that tipping point now. some of the labor issues that arise throughout the country in terms of minimum-wage will continue to put pressure on restaurant tours to hold that line. katie: when it comes to holding the line, let's talk about prices coming down. common wisdom is that when prices go up, they tend to stay there. i would assume that's true your industry? >> it is. we really don't see any types of reduction across the board. katie: let's talk about your expansion plans. friendly's is pushing into the sunbelt with red mango into florida. talk about the push out from the northeast.

when you identify potential expansion opportunities, what does that checklist look like? >> it comes down to a couple of things. you look at where the people are that have disposable income to go out to eat. they are targets for our brands. the great thing about the u.s. now is people are moving around. there is lots of transplants. i walk around in dallas and everyone knows friendly's because they for what within came from the northeast. if you look at texas specifically, his faith largest economy in the world, not just the country. when you have that type of rent familiarity, it's a no-brainer. let's bring the brand to the people that know it and can afford it and wanted here. you see that across the sunbelt. you mentioned frozen yogurt. frozen yogurt was on an increase in now its decline in the last couple of years but we believe there is a lot of untapped potential to bring frozen rubber back to it -- frozen yogurt back

to a number consumers around the country. red mango is a little bit more healthy and our orange leaf frozen yogurt band is willy wonka for frozen yogurt for kids. katie: i would really love to see more frozen yogurt locations throughout the country particular in new york city. it will be interesting to watch those developments. we are talking about frozen yogurt and i would eat frozen yogurt for breakfast but most people wouldn't area talk to me about brackets as a potential growth opportunity. do you see that as an avenue you can expand into or are you sticking to lunch, dinner, dessert? >> we believe breakfast isn't untapped part for us. that's especially in our sit down like friendly's. we have a number of restaurants now that have revamped and we've operated our breakfast menu. we bring friendly's twist on it. you might have a supervised

cream on your waffle, something different for breakfast. that -- that's something only families can provide. business in red mango's during the morning hours. people come in in the morning is a breakfast meal replacement. that's a growing segment and a growing need in terms of what guests are looking for. we believe it's a major growth opportunity moving forward. katie: let's talk about friendly's a little more because you bought that chain out of bankruptcy in 2021 which is interesting. it's a difficult time for the restaurant industry. would you be opt or -- opportunistic in adding to your portfolio or do you feel you are at a good size? >> we are actively looking to grow and add to the portfolio. there are a lot of opportunities now in the restaurant space with a lot of chains that may not be rolling as expected and looking to get out.

we as a portfolio group can leverage that and help those brands grow. we have a great core service group here in dallas that can support many brands. we can create leverage for guests. think about a loyalty program where they can go to seven brands, not just one. there opportunities as a portfolio group to continue to grow and leverage and gain scale for the benefit of our shareholders and our guests. katie: a really interesting conversation. an interesting conversation on the restaurant industry. let's get a check on the markets. we will do that with simone foxman. >> i agree with you,froyo for breakfast would be a sweet start to the day. the s&p 500 has two straight

days of gains below the record high. the nasdaq 100 is seeing enthusiasm to start the quarter. oil is also up now ahead of an opec meeting later this week. our two year yield is higher yields rising across the curve maybe on the back of some of that strong ism manufacturing data we saw this morning. another big story we are watching into the second quarter is what's happening in gold. gold is marking another record high, now at $2200 per ounce. it's not only helped by the core pce data which suggested lower rates but also because of geopolitical tensions in the middle east and strong buying in china on the part of central

banks and consumers. jp morgan since it's the number one -- says it's the number one pick. look at the big movers going into today. this growth sentiment really driving among the gainers here. alphabet is hitting a record high, 20 years to the day after gmail debuted. many folks thought that was april's joke when gmail came out. the joke would be on the doubters. nvidia shares are also getting this morning with china complaining about some of the negative restrictions around semi conductor imports from the united states. on the losing side, we have ups down even though it has struck a deal as the primary air cargo provider for the postal service and fennec shares were sinking on that as well. at&t is less surprising with shares down 1.70 5% after

disclose the presence of a data leak affecting 73 million people, many of them former customers. katie: thank you so much. coming up, we will take a look at operation challenges following the collapse of the francis scott key bridge. we will speak to the ceo of supply chain management company exeger next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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francis scott key bridge collapse, brenton daniels and david westin join us now. it's a conversation i feel we will be having for weeks to come. david: it still one of the top stories around. thanks for being back with us. we've had a few days now to observe as much as we could and the shock of what happened in the baltimore harbor but what do we know now that we didn't know when it first happened? >> one of the things that came as a surprise here was how fragile our infrastructure was. this is coming up over and over again. we are seeing these major supply chain shocks having reverberating effects more than we thought. second, we are seeing continuing operations being impacted for longer than we thought. when i envisioned the baltimore port, it's 4% of the united states maritime logistics.

i would have envisioned the baltimore port in a situation like this coming up much faster. it is that critical backbone. what we are seeing is that the supply chain shocks are much more endemic. they're much more impactful than we could have envisioned we have to be better about business continuity planning in our critical infrastructure. katie: let's talk about whether different industries are disproportionally affected. you hear mixed things on how important the port of baltimore is in some would say it's the 17th largest port in the u.s. but others point out that if you look at the auto industry, it relies on this port. walk us through the ripple effect and how that varies industry to industry. >> you are obviously going to have a disproportionate impact on automotive. companies like jaguar land

rover, mercedes, hyundai all use the ports pretty substantially. in the last 12 months, it shows that was a major thoroughfare for the automotive industry. it's not just the automotive industry. it's also where a lot of our farm and construction machinery come through. that has an impact on the agricultural sectors. in terms of major food inflation, this is a major transit hub for sugar. it is one of the largest transit hubs for sugar for the american sugar industry. what you will see is systemic effects and a few critical sectors that are pretty important to us. david: what is the workaround? let's say if it remains shot, how difficult is a percent some of the shipments to go through norfolk or new york or new jersey? >> the good news is, after the

immediate shock, those ports are able to absorb a lot of this additional capacity. the port is important but it's 4% of total trade. the ports of new york and new jersey by comparison account for about 38% of total u.s. east coast trade volumes. there is the ability to absorb the additional capacity. one of the things to note here is that this is not just about the port. it's also about the bridge collapse. one of the things that's notable for merit data was that i the- 695 route is the recommended route for transporting all

hazardous materials. dangerous goods and goods that require specific routing like gasoline, propane, explosive and radioactive materials, those are all supposed to come through this existing route. those materials will undoubtedly be slowed for the foreseeable future. the other ports can absorb this after the initial shock and there are some shipping companies today that are utilizing dropping goods at ports of making people find out how to get in from those ports to their extended locations. long-term come i think the other ports can absorb this volume but the more difficult challenge is actually the ground transportation of some of these hazardous materials. katie: i want to talk about the bridge a little more and whether

you think there will be lasting impacts that come out of this episode in terms of how vessels come into and out of the port. when it comes to this bridge in particular, it wasn't that old. it was built in the 1970's but you think about container ships and they are so much more massive than they were in the 70's. how do you operate around that? do you think there will be any changes coming out of this? >> yes, i think there will be changes coming out of this. our bridges and our roads are failing. as you mention, this bridge is not that old but our infrastructure from a bridge perspective has been aging and it has been decaying and we haven't seen this much infrastructure spend as we anticipated when we started to see the infrastructure funds come in from the current administration. bridges will need to be

reinforced to me have to build more bridges because there are a lot of bottlenecks like this. the other thing is, from a port perspective, i think having alternative channels, alternative routes is a big learning lesson here. the last thing is from a navigation perspective, as you get into highly populated areas and as you go through major thoroughfares, there are going to be new requirements that come out from a logistics perspective in terms of how you navigate around the structures. there will be requirements in terms of monitoring these big container ships as they commit to port. there will be better lighting, there will be more navigation channels, there will also be probably manual steering through these ports as people get closer to heavily populated areas. i think there are a bunch of

lessons that will be learned from this incident that will start to get integrated into our infrastructure funding. david: if you are running a port now and you say i have to have alternative routes, how much time does it take to develop those? >> it takes a good amount of time. ports are some of the best design but also highly architected. they are designed to bring in millions of the cargo blocks you see driving down the street or on top of a container ship. they bring through millions of them every year, tens of millions in many ports. these ports are highly architected and those routes are set. it does take a long time to

develop alternative channels and to have the business continuity plans that stop this from happening again. . i think this is going to require a re-think of more traffic. katie: brandon daniels, thank you so much. who else do you have coming up on the program? david: we will talk to the head of securitize. they got a big new money market fend where your ownership interest is in -- is represented by a digital token. on friday, we will have an extended discussion with ray dalio a bridgewater. he wanted to talk about the biggest mistake he ever made on the original wall street week. that's at 6 p.m. eastern time on friday. katie: looking forward to that conversation. this is bloomberg. ♪ personalized financial advice from ameriprise can do more

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katie: let's take a quick look at some stocks hitting highs today. allstate is hitting a 52-week high after the price target was raised to 180 eight dollars. allstate falling a little bit with the broader market. my plan also hitting highs after bank of america raised its price target to $144 on ai tailwinds. that's good for a 6.4% rally. take a look at the broader market and the s&p 500 continues to drift lower, currently down about 0.3%. the big rally that big tech was sitting on is starting to unravel. the nasdaq 100 is slightly higher. ian rogers is the ceo of ledger and joins caroline hyde and ed ludlow that does it for bloomberg markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide. this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. >> i'm caroline hyde. >> i'm also in new york, this is ed ludlow. >> we will take a look at what we can expect from tesla's deliver little -- delivery report. details ahead. >> more momentum in the ipo market. we will bring you the latest. caroline: we will sit down with the production company shy kids as