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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  April 1, 2024 11:00pm-12:00am EDT

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haslinda: it is almost 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." chinese shares gaining in hong kong as traders return from holidays on fresh signs the recovery is gaining pace. investors also assessing u.s. data, supporting the view the fed will be slow to cut rates. the yen remaining on intervention watch. authorities could target a five-yen rally if they decide to act. and we have a special guest this hour to discuss the cell china by india strategy. let's get you to markets. gains in asia pretty much boosted by hong kong back from a holiday. it is up more than 2%.
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pricing in less than a 50% chance of a cut and fewer cuts for the year as well. looking at where we are for the asia thing index, extending gains to about .5%. xaomi jumping on early signs of success for its ev. it received 90,000 orders within the first 24 hours. in china, no momentum after it rose the most in about a month on monday. two sets of data suggesting his recovery. currently, the csi index down .2%. speaking of china, it is about the yuan. versus the usd, weakening ever so slowly, which we are keeping a watch on. we had weakness persisting despite yet another strong fixed
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by the pboc and speaking of currencies, the yen on watch as well weakening towards 152 versus the usd. the finance minister tried talking about, but nothing we have not heard before. speaking of japan, japanese officials were ramping up warnings against speculative moves in the yen. let's discuss prospects for intervention with our guest this hour who is synonymous with imaging and frontier markets investing, mark mobius, chairman of mobius marketing fund. this intervention incoming, not for the moment no. >> i don't think so. you still want to sell the yen at the moment. we are talking about a very incremental change in policy recently. the fact is japan still has by far the most deeply negative real yields in the world, and as i'm sure mark mobius will tell us, the environment is broadly constructive for em at the
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moment. at a time when you want to be expanding investments in discounting em assets at the -- in discounting em assets around the world, it will have to tighten policy further, but it will not be enough to significantly close the gap, so even if we get into venture, it just needs a few yen difference, and soon we will be moving back on shore to the yen again. >> pretty much short-term gain for the yen if intervention comes, but when will intervention come? 155? >> if we get to 155 slowly, i don't think intervention comes then. i could see them coming in an intervening if we get to 154 really rapidly, but they don't want to fight the fundamentals. they know they are fighting a losing battle. unless we suddenly get a change and we start seeing fed cuts come through for real. haslinda: it is about the fed and its rate differential that
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is guiding the yen. >> at the end of the day, i agree with what you just said. the japanese are fighting a losing battle at might as well give up. at the end of the day, it is probably good news for some people because if you are shorting the yen, you're doing fine, but the interesting thing about the yen is that a lot of the japanese investment money is finding its way into southeast asia and to emerging markets generally. i think that is a very interesting development because they realize now that they have been making their mark, like china has been doing in these countries, so the yen would be distributed widely in these emerging market countries. haslinda: we talk about how the yen is supporting the stocks.
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we are looking about a 40% upside for japanese stocks. how much more upside can be expected? the likes of larry fink says as long as the yen remains about 115, we can expect japanese stocks to continue to go upwards . >> it will continue to move up, not necessarily because of the yen, but because of what is happening with japanese industry and what is happening in the chip market. the chip revolution globally is becoming more and more intense with more sophisticated chips being produced, and japan is at the forefront of this development. the chip exports are really leading the export revolution. >> there's a structural reform happening. yes, they have come a long way
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over the last couple of years, but it's not like they are long-term expensive yet. it still seems like good investment, but they are probably unlikely to continue leading the gains in asia or do you think they can continue leading the gains? can you think of somewhere else in asia that can start taking the forefront of gains? what -- where is your pick of the other asia equity markets? quickly pick for me is india. even though india has come back a lot and has even at some point outperformed the u.s. market, india still has a long way to go. by the way, japan is going to play a role in india. as you know, relations between japan and china have not been the best. china has been a big market for japan, but they realize this cannot continue, and they begin to make a big push into india. that will boost not only indian stocks but also help japanese stocks as well.
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>> are you not concerned by the extreme valuations we are getting? i understand the structural story. incredible growth, great demographics. long-term, it's brilliant. i know you have been a long-term fan. i know it will be there for some while, but the valuations in indian stocks make u.s. stocks seem discounted and cheap. i think if you are looking to play -- i'm not saying you want to fight that trend. i'm like you, the trend is your friend and i don't want to go against it, but i don't see the upside for the year ahead. there are a lot of other markets that just a much more discounted compared to india. >> that's a very interesting point you make. yes, it looks cheap. if you look at the hong kong market, some of these other markets compared to india, but what we like to focus on is return on capital. return on assets.
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if you look at the indian companies in that regard, you find you are doing exceptionally well. we have found companies with a high return on capital, high return on assets tend to catch up on the p/e level. in other words, the p/c level is high -- p/e level is high at a time you notice this high return on capital. as you go forward, that level will come down. the earnings will come down faster than the price. this is one thing and a lot of people are afraid of, the high level of the price, which makes india look expensive, but when you look at it the other way, we look at what will happen down the road, and they are doing exceptionally well. haslinda: the thing is, the indian market regulators are also seeing a bubble. it has been coming up in arms trying to moderate sentiment in the market. we have seen this before, and they say we have seen perhaps
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exuberance, particularly in mid and small caps. how are we assessing that? >> event tends to be very conservative and concern, which is why they probably will not reduce interest rates. they see the stock market as booming a little bit too much, but as we have seen in the past, this kind of boom can last a lot longer than the bank would like, and i think that is the case with india. haslinda: is it justified to take money out of india to go to china? we are seeing increasingly being done, and people say it is an inflection point, but from what you are suggesting, it's not the right move. >> with china, i believe the place to look would be the government companies. as you know, xi jinping really wants to have the government
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companies dominate the chinese market. you might want to look there, but again, when you look at the metrics, when we look at return on capital and even some of the other valuation metrics, you find that it is not really that attractive. in other words, there are not that many bargains you want to go into, not only because of the change in government policy but because the economy is also -- has also been slowing. in the past, you could throw money at anything and it would work, but now you have to be a lot more selective, and for that reason, we are watching it very carefully and maybe picking one or two stocks that might be able to perform, particularly if they have government backing. that is the important factor that i think you are seeing in china. >> he made the point that in china investment the last couple of years, stock selection has been so vital. obviously just investing in the
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index is has not worked. there has to be much more active management. you talked about government companies being more supportive, and that makes sense and that has been the trend recently. china governments say they are supporting a high-tech kind of moonshot and very aggressive plans for the expansion of the tech sector, and if you think there has been any merit of moving into those small cap tech startups again in china that has been so battered in recent years until the last couple of months, do you think this is the start of a nascent recovery or another false start? >> no, definitely i think it is a good place to start for the reasons you mentioned. the government is pushing tech, particularly the high-tech sector. in semiconductors, i think there is support. interestingly enough, one way to get into this market is through taiwan because taiwan is
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supplying a lot of the technology, even with the u.s. restrictions. taiwan is supplying a lot of this software. yes, there's companies like that in china that you want to look at, but you might want to also look at taiwan as an entry into that chinese market. haslinda: which chinese stocks would you buy? some suggesting tech is the way to go. alibaba even tencent. >> the one i would buy is tsmc in taiwan. i think, of course, the chinese will likely get their hands on tsmc. they already benefit to some degree on the products from tsmc , but that is the one i would bet on. >> so you would not be picking up any chinese stocks? >> not at this stage.
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haslinda: all right, thanks to our mliv executive editor, mark cudmore. mark mobius sticking around. bear with us. still to come, goldman sachs shares their outlook on india's financial sector. it appears that strong growth is over, at least in the near term. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: asia." markets expecting the fed to wait until september for its first rate cut on the back of that strong i sent back to be pivot data. traders also pricing in rate cuts in july from the ecb and bank of canada and more moves from the boe and rbnz in august. let's talk central banks. we continue our conversation with mark mobius, chairman of emerging opportunities fund. is this a sign of more to come? >> i think yes, it could be. there is a very good possibility, yes. haslinda: in terms of how
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certain factors are being factored in, what assumptions are you making about the fed? >> i personally think the fed will lower rates sooner than later for one particular political reason. that is, they really don't want the current president to be disadvantaged in the upcoming election. i think biden needs help from the central bank, and i think they may give it to him. i know that as an outside view, but that's what i think. haslinda: markets have gone from seven to three and now possibly two. you say the fed will move three this year? >> yes, i believe that is quite possible. you must remember that supply has come down. the growth rate has declined dramatically, and we are seeing
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the total money supply curving down. we have already achieved that, and therefore, they should not be worried too much about inflation. it may be that they would be willing to lower rates at this stage. haslinda: we knew that the fed and the strong dollar have had a strong influence in asia in particular. how do you see this playing out in this part of the world? >> i think the strong dollar is great for the rest of the world. of course, if they have a relatively weak currency against the u.s. dollar, they can export to the u.s., so i strong dollar is not necessarily a bad thing. haslinda: we know that you are looking at india in particular.
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how do you see the rpi factoring in fed moves into its own decision? >> i think they are watching very, very carefully and wondering, like we are, what the fed will do next. but the big question mark in my mind is what china will do because china needs to boost exports much quicker than we are doing now, and in order to do that, they may need to weaken the renminbi even further, and that could cause all kind of conflict with the u.s. it will be interesting to see how this develops, but i think that is another thing to watch very carefully. haslinda: the pboc is reluctant to see a weak currency. we saw a very strong fix today, below what was anticipated. how are you viewing where the
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you goes from here? >> if you look at the export numbers, you can see they are very weak. the chinese economy, as you know, is weak, and they have to do something to boost consumption, which is really what they should be doing, but confidence is so low in china, it is difficult for them to boost consumer confidence, so i don't see any other path for them to try to boost exports. haslinda: we are also keeping up on what the boj is likely to do, the next challenge for the boj is to pull back stocks and bonds in the market. how do you see the boj doing that when it holds about 15% of jgb's and about 80% of etf's in the market? >> the boj have been doing some irrational things for a long
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time, and it's quite possible for them to continue that. i think they have woken up to the fact that the bank's policies really did not do anything to accomplish -- to accomplish inflation targets they were pointing at. now they are thinking of doing something differently, but it remains to be seen if they are able to really make a dramatic change in their policies. i'm sure there is a big debate going on within the financial circles of the governor about this whole issue, what to do next, and it's not easy for them to change tack. haslinda: is it possible for the boj to withdraw without causing market turmoil globally? >> yes, it is possible for them to do that. they would have to do it rationally, but there's no question they could do it without creating any the issue. haslinda: how about in terms of
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the carry trade? what are the prospects from here? >> from my point of view, you will continue to see weakness in the yen, and those of shorting it probably will make some money, but other than that, it will not be dramatic. there won't be a big, dramatic change. it will be a gradual change. haslinda: some say that perhaps even as we talk about the economy improving, it won't trickle down to the people. how might this play out for the japanese economy? >> what happens in japan, as you know, is an incredible amount of discipline within the banking sector. the banks do what the central bank tells them to do, and they are very disciplined in that regard, so any direction the government wants to move, they are able to move in that direction. japanese bond are very used to
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extremely low interest rates, almost negative interest rates, and they tolerate it because this is what the discipline is all about in japan. i don't see any change in the government policy. haslinda: hang tight. mark mobius is sticking around. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back. singapore airlines reportedly resuming flights to three chinese cities later this month
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following a three-week suspension due to what he described as regulatory reasons. services will restart on april 22. singapore airlines has not elaborated on the reason for the suspension, but this is not the first time. tesla may be headed for a gloomy sales milestone as waning demand for electric vehicles and elevated interest rates take a toll. analysts have rapidly lowered projections for this week's earnings report. and record 10 groups that to be coming back to the high-yield bond market -- rakuten group said to be coming back to the high-yield bond market.
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but first, let's do a quick check on the markets. xaomi jumping as much as 15% early this morning in hong kong on the back of orders for his first electric vehicle, topping estimates, fueling optimism smartphone maker may succeed in china's cutthroat car market. gold is what we are watching as well. record highs right now. gold at $2253. keep it with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ it's an amazing thing
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when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. haslinda: welcome back. we had the csi 300 index in
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negative territory down .3% after rising the most in about a month. yesterday, two sets of data showed manufacturing expanded, encouraging signs for exports, consumer prices as well, but not enough to lift sentiment currently in negative territory. we are keeping an eye on the chinese yuan, weakness persisting despite yet another strong hang seng. in terms of the shanghai calm, currently flat. change income, down .2%. we are also tracking japan as it comes back from lunch break. japan, of course, it is about the yen in particular, weakening towards 152 versus the u.s.. finance minister suzuki had said repeatedly the bank is willing to take bold actions, but nothing so far. 152, unlikely they say to see
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intervention. the yen, 15172. some say 152 may not be the point of intervention. it could be closer to 155. the rba set to switch to a new framework for the implementation of monetary policy. the assistant governor for financial markets outlined the changes in a speech at bloomberg's sydney office. he also spoke about the outlook. >> the board has made it clear he thinks the interest rate path that will best bring inflation down in a timely manner is uncertain, so they have not wanted to rule anything in or out with regards to interest rate changes. we are in a better place than we had been. inflation appears to be moderating, but the path, according to your forecasts, is a gradual moderation from here.
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labor market pressures are still tight, but they are easing. that's because the market is growing. all those things in place. our central forecast is sort of predicated on further good things happening, including productivity growth, but there's a lot of uncertainties around that, and i think the key point is those are reasonably well balanced as best we can tell, and because of that, the path is uncertain for the next rate change. >> when you talk about the inability to rule out shocks, how much risk do you worry about that might be geopolitical, that might be electric -- election-driven? and structural macro dynamic assets we have not seen in the data set yet? >> it could be both.
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we just don't know. we are all subject to developments of sure. we have talked at length about what is happening in china. china is a major export market for us, and there are concerns there about the property sector and the problems they are trying to deal with, so that can have an impact on things like demand for our key commodities like iron ore, and it could move our economy around. how households will behave in the future will be a key point for where the economy goes. haslinda: for more on australia, let's bring back the chairman of the mobius emerging opportunities fund. you do get the sense the rba is stuck between a rock and a hard place. >> yes. in my mind, the australian
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economy is in very good shape. the real estate arm particularly in sydney is really booming. it may be over price, but prices continue to rise. australia is getting rich, and a lot of people want to be in australia. it is a great place to live. if you asked me, they may have a little problem getting inflation down, but generally speaking, the economy is in good shape. haslinda: it really is about the property sector. prices keep going up. >> yes. i was recently in sydney, and i realized why people are buying property in australia. it's a wonderful place to live. a great atmosphere, great climate. well organized society. if they open the doors to immigration any further, they would get a flood of immigrants coming in, so i think that is
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the problem they have. haslinda: if you want exposure to australia, how best to play that? >> of course, equities again. you have to be in equities in order to get exposure to that market. i would say the service sector is the way to go because it's got a booming service sector, and the sector is growing at a rapid pace. haslinda: take us through your investment strategy. how does your portfolio look like right now? >> right, it is very tech heavy. i don't mean tech stocks necessarily, but companies that utilize technology to improve their profitability and their [indiscernible]
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that could be in the service sector, in mining, anything, but generally speaking, there is a tendency to be into software companies, companies that are doing any kind of software, for ai, for chips, or for anything in the tech sector. if we look at india, a stock that would be interesting is exporting software all over the world. we are looking at many companies like that. going forward, i believe the hardware sector in india will become more interesting as they move into chip reduction and production of other tech products. haslinda: how much more upside do you think there is to the tech space? you look at what's happening in
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the u.s. with nvidia, how it keeps testing new records. how much more upside can we see? people basically are investing in the future. what is not really known yet. there is a risk to that. >> yes. some of this has gone completely crazy. you get new ipo's coming up with no earnings. that tells you there is an incredible amount of money sloshing around the market looking for a home. the sentiment is generally in favor of ai or anything related to a high, if it's chips in the ai sector or software or whatever. that's why you have stocks like nvidia doing so well. but nvidia laid out the stocks benefiting from this technological revolution. it seems that the sentiment goes after -- goes more wild kind of
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odds that you see in the tech sector, stuxnet promise an incredible future but may never deliver. you have to be very careful. you cannot condemn the whole tech sector, but we've got to be very selective. haslinda: can you name some of the stocks we should be picking up if you want to play tech and ai? >> we are now in the process of buying some of these, so we don't want to give specific names, but i would say you have to look at those stocks that are actually making money. haslinda: which stocks and sectors are you staying away from? >> generally speaking, we don't stay away from any particular sector because we are finding opportunities in almost every sector, but if you look at the big picture, probably anything related to mining, but even oil
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production. there's some stocks that are doing very, very well. like tidewater in the u.s. is doing very well and has a great future. given those kind of stocks. other than that, we are not staying away from anything in the sector. haslinda: which market do you see over performing, outperforming by the end of the year? might that be china? might that be japan? might that be the u.s. still? >> there's no question in my mind that india will continue to outperform. of course, now they have the election coming up, but it looks like modi will come back with maybe even a stronger majority in congress, and that will set him on the road to push the indian economy further. i think india is the place to
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be. haslinda: not long ago, vietnam was also the darling for investors. mike vietnam surprise investors? >> yes, vietnam has been very high on our list, but the problem with vietnam is that politics get in the way. you know, you have the problem as you have in china where the communist party may decide this private sector business has gone too far and we want to slow it down. you can see they have already taken some measures in that direction, so you have to be very careful. they may find they are suddenly in a politically unfavorable position, and the stock could go up with them. no question vietnam is a very dynamic society with an incredible future ahead, but again, the political aspect is something you have to look at very carefully.
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haslinda: we love asking you this question. if you had $100,000 right now, where would you invest it in? >> i would first of all put it in stocks. probably 50% of it i would put into u.s. bonds because although i love emerging countries, emerging markets, the u.s. stocks have incredible presence in the fast-growing emerging countries. if you look at the percent of earnings on companies like apple or microsoft, the amount of money they earn overseas and in emerging markets is tremendous, so in some ways, the u.s. market is an entry into emerging markets. and it is a very liquid market. maybe 50% in u.s. equities and 50% in other countries around the world.
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taiwan, korea, thailand, indonesia, india, of course, brazil, maybe even south africa. haslinda: just one final question before we let you go. we know we have a rematch between biden and trump at the end of the year. what would trump 2.0 main for markets? >> i think trump may be good for markets because his first measure would probably be to reduce taxes or do something with taxes to help companies, and he probably would be good for the market. haslinda: thank you so much for your insights today. mark mobius, chairman of the mobius emerging opportunities fund. still to come, our interview with goldman sachs asia financials research unit. here why they have downgraded indian banks to market weight as a sector. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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thanks to avalara, we can calculate sales tax automatically. avalarahhhhhh what if tax rates change? ahhhhhh filing sales tax returns? ahhhhhh business license guidance? ahhhhhh -cross-border sales? -ahhhhhh -item classification? -ahhhhhh does it connect with acc...? ahhhhhh ahhhhhh ahhhhhh
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we are keeping and i on the indian rupee, which has been pretty resilient versus the usd given the inflows coming into the indian market. indian markets being reshaped by an influx of cash brought out by the country's inclusion in the key global bond index. data showing foreign investors have pumped some $9 million into eligible sovereign bonds since jp morgan's landmark announcement in september. inflows are leaving a mark on a variety of assets, including carbon bonds. the yield on top-rated 10-year note has declined about 30 basis points since the index inclusion announcement. let's get perspective from our next guest, cohead of asia financials research at goldman sachs. good to have you with us. what you make of the sentiment? some say it is time to pull back. >> good morning, and hello to everyone. we are constructive on the indian markets.
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having said that, focusing on my own space, which is the financial sector, they have moved down to market rate, and we also downgraded the sector about a month back. while we are still constructive, there are pockets for investors, but you should always be selective in choosing what you buy. haslinda: why downgrade indian banks? >> clearly, indian banks saw a overactive period the last couple of years, which was characterized by sharp improvement. we feel that. now it's time that banks start to consolidate. we expect that somewhat over the next couple of orders.
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second is the unsecured lending where we feel the third cycle is already on, and third, the people who invest in expansion of capacity buildup. clearly, all of this is not really conducive for the top line, and investors need to be selective when it comes to picking and choosing financial stocks. haslinda: so there is concern. credit growth is a case in point. it is set to slow. how might that affect profitability in banks? >> why we still believe that structure is rightly placed in the longer term, but in the near term, we see consolidation happening in the consumer space because we see that household balance sheets are getting leverage. even lenders who own this portfolio need to consolidate. that will impact revenues or the
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margins. we have cut the earnings estimate. we have gone below consensus now because we see some of these battles play out. if the current quality worsens more than what we are expecting, clearly, there will be negative motivation to the lender's. haslinda: how about deposit growth? we know there is intense competition in this space. how do you see banks trying to boost growth in terms of deposits? >> that's a very good question. deposits is an important part for indian banking system. almost 70% to 80% of lenders assets are funded by deposits. what we have seen over the last couple of years, i have binged
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much higher. we feel that it has to consolidate. lenders are following different strategies. some lenders have gone ahead and put up strong capacity build outs. some are trying to boost productivity, but the coalition between the deposit market share and the branch market share in india has been very high. therefore, in our opinion, banks need to keep doing the hard work of reaching out to the customer at the ground level by expanding institution funding. some of the banks are yet to follow suit. haslinda: we have heard from regulators, their concern about shadow lending. your thoughts on what the risks are out there. >> clearly, i think the action
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seems to imply that there is very little scope for any loose governing standards -- governance standards, so to speak. what investors are discussing with us is arbitrage that existed between the banks' initial lenders seems to be fitting away. i couple of years back, i knew governing structure for banks was unveiled, and that perhaps left an opening for shadow bank lenders to keep working hard on improving standards. where there are gaps, those lenders will need to answer regulators, but from our perspective, we look at the broader space that has so we's, -- s o e's, private banks, non-bank lender companies.
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coupled with strong governance standards. haslinda: do you see regulators coming down further on shadow lending, or do you think this is it? >> we are focusing more on fundamentals because it is too difficult to estimate. we are keeping an eye on how different lenders are behaving differently. because there is definitely a sense that things will be sensitive sectors such as unsecured lending, which where the doubts exist, if this money has been used or it is getting funneled to stock markets. you need to be careful. focusing on the growth is lenders are delivering and then on profitability they are delivering coupled with the quality of the portfolios. haslinda: we have seen how global banks have been cutting jobs in a huge way.
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yet, indian banks have been hiring in a huge way. how are you reading this? can they sustain that kind of hiring? >> one is the structural drivers for lending growth, which we still feel impact with nominal gdp growth expected to be close to 10% or a bit more. that would translate through the banking system, and for that, lenders would need to hire more to support that momentum. second is deposits and therefore hiring employees is very much part of the expansion, the capacity expansion plan. the lenders can already shy away from investing in the capacity buildup. that's the reason why lenders are still hiring in huge numbers compared to the global environment. haslinda: great insights. thank you so much for joining us.
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it has been trading for about seven minutes now. let's take a check on how they are doing. we know indian stocks are under pressure in line with the rest of the region which has been pretty much supported by that run-up in hong kong stocks playing catch-up. let's do a check on where they are. the index down .3%. nft index also lower along with the bank index. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: welcome back. it is a muted session in asia on the back of better than expected out of the u.s.. here in asia, we are seeing the asia pac index up by .4%. it has pretty much lifted by the hang seng in particular. strong china data boosting sentiment in the likes of xaomi jumping as much as 15% on the back of early positive sentiment for its ev suv. we had treasury yields higher across the board. 10-year yield jumping, near that 2024 highs, and that is on the
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back of stronger than anticipated eco-data supporting the fed's view. bond traders now pretty much pricing in a less than 50% chance of a hike in june likely to be in september. they say hire for longer, a phrase we have heard for so long. this is how it is looking in terms of the broader market. the hang seng index up by 2.4%. in terms of the fx space, we continue to keep track of the yen, inching ever so close to that 152 level. that is it from bloomberg markets: asia. "daybreak middle east and africa" is next. keep it here with us. ♪
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