in singapore and shanghai. here are the top stories, asian stocks ride -- rise with fed chair jay powell reaffirming his view that rate cuts are still likely this year despite strength in the u.s. economy. oil extends its rally with opec-plus, also ahead, we're live to taipei for an update on earthquake recovery efforts as crucial chipmakers resume production. and we have some great guests weighing in this hour and the outlook for india's active markets. asia tracking gains in the u.s., traders taking some comfort from jay powell saying that perhaps those direct cuts are coming this year. he also said that recent inflation data has not distorted the picture. all eyes on the jobs data coming out of the u.s., for greater

clarity, s&p futures also heading up by .2%. we are keeping an eye on the dollar, weakening on the back of what powell said. then he kate leading the pack higher for investors who have been eager to buy japanese stocks. boosting profits for the likes of toyota and high taxi. -- hitachi. china is on holiday along with hong kong and taiwan. all three markets on holiday, tomorrow hong kong will be coming back online while china and taiwan will be joined by thailand. the top story, the latest comments from fed chairman jerome powell, signaling patients over the timing of a rate cut. have a listen. >> recent data do not materially

change the overall picture which continues to be one of solid growth, strong but rebalancing labor market, and inflation moving down toward 2% owner sometimes bumpy path. haslinda: our next guest believes inflation will moderate enough to allow major banks including the fed to start easing around midyear. the chief economist at the bank of singapore, good to have you with us. how are you assessing what powell said? >> markets realize that powell doesn't want to cut interest rates. he made that clear. he did caveat his views by saying they want inflation to continue to ease again so they need more moderate ratings. haslinda: powell wants to cut rates, prompting some to say he's got e.g. fingers. the data not supporting that cut

. is there since perhaps powell could be wrong? the fed could be overenthusiastic and wanting to cut rates. >> last year when inflation numbers were moderating quickly the second half of the year, the fed signaled that would be patient, they wanted to see more evidence. they want greater confidence inflation is moderating. if they get that the next two or three reports, then powell is saying they can start cutting interest rates now. haslinda: how are you setting the risk of him getting it wrong? >> and say between 20 and 30%. the blindside -- supply-side is getting better. lower demand as well. the chance of him getting it wrong is that minority in terms of probabilities. haslinda: interesting to see the

reaction and that dollar, weakening on the back of what powell said. >> it is very interesting because that correlation has been one of high u.s. stocks, higher dollar. now powell comments seem to be have having more confidence from investors that maybe the fed will cut rates and that should weaken the dollar. haslinda: you talk about confidence in the fed wanting to cut rates, how consequential will data like the jobs data be? how will that meaningfully change his thoughts on where fed policy should be? >> he did talk about how the jobs data had surprise on the upside in january and february. get the march data tomorrow. we do need to see a slowdown and if wages continue to ease, that will help as well. jobs data and inflation are the two key releases.

the bond market selloff has been a major development. bond markets are concerned that inflation won't moderate. haslinda: neutral rates, some are saying it's going to be higher but some suggesting it could be 4%. >> that debate is very important. i suspect the fed will want to cut rates even if neutral rates are high because they realize to percent real rate is slowing the economy down. haslinda: what does it all mean for other central banks you have been waiting to cut >> they have been ready to cut since the beginning of the year. indonesia even thinking of perhaps a rate hike. >> powell made it clear last night that the fed won't hike rates again.

so central banks in this part of the world can have some relief from that but they will want to see the fed cut rates first, so they will have to be patient, just like the rest of us. haslinda: some say the ecb is likely to cut ahead of the fed. >> we think the ecb will be a bit cautious, they will want to see more evidence that inflation europe is slowing down. we expect cuts from june and not from next week meeting. haslinda: from the sound of it, everything is waiting on the fed. they have been under pressure, the likes of the yuan engine. are they likely to be under a lot of pressure? >> most currencies will be on the back foot because dollar interest rates are high.

they will be waiting for the fed just like the rest of us and the fed will be waiting for u.s. inflation numbers. once those numbers moderate, policymakers and asia will be able to follow the fed and cutting rates, but not before then. haslinda: some say perhaps devaluation of the yuan is the way to go is a reflection of how weak the economy really is. what is the fair value for the yuan right now? >> the pboc is caught between a rock and a hard place. they don't want the currency to slide. it does look undervalued. fair value is difficult to work out. but i would say beyond seven, if the fed does cut rates, it takes the pressure off the dollar and the yuan will start to rally. haslinda: you are saying the yuan is undervalued?

it has been supported by the pboc. >> the exchange rate is strong on that measure. that is what is keeping the yuan under pressure in the short-term. the yen just looks way too cheap, to be honest. we had intervention coinciding with the turn in u.s. bond markets. we are likely to get interested again but you need the fed to cut rates as well. we think it's going to happen, so we expense -- expect dollar-yen to finish the year out. >> can the boj afford to wait until october, given that the currency is so weak?

>> boj will take their time. they want inflation to get entrenched after all these decades of the inflation. haslinda: we are also looking at oil. some suggesting it could get to 100. what is the risk of oil -- taken a step back and efforts to cut rates. >> a very important point. the conflicts begin to broaden. let's say we get a shocker in the middle east and oil goes beyond $100 a barrel. i suspect the fed would have to rethink its strategy. they will be cautious about cutting, at least in the near term.

as soon as the middle east situation calms down, probably around $85 by the end of the year. haslinda: and gold at an all-time high. is that surprising? geopolitics possibly supports gold at such prices, but it is also a hedge against all the risks. >> gold is definitely proliferating for a few reasons. we've got all the tension in the middle east but what is underlying this is that central banks were shocked after the war in ukraine began. gold cannot be seized like dollars or euros or yen. >> the chief economist at bank

of singapore. still to come, more market analysis with jp morgan. why they think indian stocks could deliver high returns over the long cost. tune in next for the latest on recovery efforts. this is bloomberg. ♪ lates anywhere. so i started my own studio. and with the right help, i can make this place i love even better. earn up to 5% cash back on business essentials with the chase ink business cash card. make more of what's yours.

haslinda: welcome back. you're looking at live pictures from taiwan. the earthquake killed at least nine people and injured more than 1000 others, toppled dozens of buildings. our reporter joins us with the latest. no major damage at tsmc. >> that's right, they don't see any major damage but the production line has not fully resumed production yet. they filed an announcement late last night saying it has almost

resumed, it is unclear when they will get back into normal production. haslinda: what kind of ripple effects are we expecting if production does not start again? >> i saw a report yesterday saying there will be some delays on revenues of tsmc and also shipping and all sorts of stuff. the cost of small disruptions for the supply chain, so far we know that the company aims to restore to full capacity within 24 hours. we are still kind of waiting for the company's latest updates on how the recovery is going and we

are also waiting for implementation of the financial office from the earthquake. haslinda: in terms of recovery and rescue efforts, where are we with that? what is the latest? >> right now, the government has already located around 101 people trapped inside the mountains, there are still some 40 people still missing and the majority of them are staff in local hotels. it is kind of concerning because it has been over 24 hours now. unable to get in touch with them

will likely mean it might not be good news for us. haslinda: how about international help? who is coming forward? >> a lot of countries have expressed that they're willing to help. we already have our emergency operations team heading in and cleaning up the roads and the collapsed tunnels in the mountains. so far we haven't heard of any other countries rescue teams coming in but interesting that china offered help for taiwan. haslinda: thank you so much for that from taiwan. speaking of china, chinese state media has used a disaster to

reassess beijing's claim of taiwan. our reporter joins us now. these are real concerns, but some might say china is taking this as an opportunity. >> it was really interesting listening to your conversation, she hit the nail on the head when she said that taipei firmly rejected the office of assistance and aid from china. we have seen this happen before, as i've described in my column today. in 1999, the last major disaster that struck taiwan, more than 2000 people were killed and destroyed thousands of buildings. they said beijing was using that

opportunity as a sort of political maneuver because china had said all of the egg needed to come through the mainland to get to through. haslinda: so the mess -- best thing taiwan can do is just maintain peace in the region. >> frankly, just to stay out of the way. if china is sincere about security -- ensuring the rescue and search operation is prioritized, and that is the key focus right now. there are still dozens of people who are missing. taiwan needs to look after the welfare of its people first and foremost. we have seen offers of assistance from around the world . interestingly, india also saying it is willing to help. what is symbolic and significant in that, it also reflects the

fact that they are not as afraid of china as it had been in the past. the tide is turning against china a little, and you are seeing that in some of the statements coming out. haslinda: we have the earthquake hitting your japan's fukushima and it's on the intensity of four out of seven. so yet another earthquake hitting the edge of fukushima. i want to bring up the fact that taiwan is in a pretty precarious position. it is not a member of the you in , it is in a very difficult position. >> it really is. it's entire political relationship with the entire

world, what has done in the past is try to build trade relationships with countries. it has tried to be diplomatically very helpful to countries. china on his part has slowly chipped away and eroded at those relationships. it has been very successful. there are only a handful of countries that have a relationship for diplomatic ties with taiwan. looking at the gray zone activities with warplanes and vessels from the mainland rearing -- being sent into the season skies around the island. that is very difficult for the taiwanese military to manage, particularly in they need to get the resources out to the stricken areas, the remote parts of the island or people need to be found and helped. that must be the focus. haslinda: of course we have

taiwan playing a key role, supplying 90%. [indiscernible] that's exactly the answer, it is a key supplier of semiconductors around the world. there has been so much concern about the potential blockade or invasion, call it what you will. military experts are constantly warning about some action from china. this is one of the key reasons that taiwan is in this very delicate position and why it is a major flashpoint we are looking at as we head into the u.s. election season. haslinda: be sure to read her article in bloomberg opinion. to recap the headlines out of

japan, hk reporting that no tsunami threat in particular, but shaking intensity is four on the presence of -- plenty more head. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ at ameriprise financial our advice is personalized based on your goals, whatever they may be.

all that planning has paid off. looks like you can make this work. we can make this work. and the feeling of confidence that comes from our advice... i can make this work. that seems to be universal. i can make this work. i can make this work. no wonder more than 9 out of 10 clients are likely to recommend us. because advice worth listening to is advice worth talking about. ameriprise financial. so, what are you thinking? i'm thinking... (speaking to self) about our honeymoon. what about africa? safari? hot air balloon ride? swim with elephants? wait, can we afford a safari? great question. like everything, it takes a little planning. or, put the money towards a down-payment... ...on a ranch ...in montana ...with horses let's take a look at those scenarios. j.p. morgan wealth management has advisors in chase branches and tools, like wealth plan to keep you on track. when you're planning for it all... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

haslinda: let's recap the lines out of japan, the japan earthquake had an initial magnitude of six and a depth of 40 kilometers, according to the japan agency. we have been reporting no tsunami threat from that japan earthquake according to nhk and

initial magnitude of six and a depth of 40 kilometers. that earthquake hitting near japan's fukushima. we will bring you the details as the come along. onto the markets, the circuit out chipmakers are doing. tsmc resuming production after deadly earthquake force it to shop -- stop ship making momentarily. sk hynix higher by almost 4%. samsung up by about 1% as we speak. taiwan was hit by's largest -- earthquake in 25 years yesterday. initial inspection of the site showed things were normal but small tools were damage.

iron ore coming down by 1.7%. copper is extending its gains and hitting a 14 month high with the man rising and supply getting squeezed. in terms of the s&p, currently up by 4%. ftse futures pointing to a higher open, up .6%. gold rose as much as 2230 initially. overall gains for

(aidyl) hi, i'm aidyl, and i lost 90 pounds on golo. i struggled with weight loss and weight gain my entire life. with all the yo-yo dieting i did in the past, i would lose 20, 30, 50 pounds just to gain them over and over again. thanks to golo, i've been able to steadily go down the sizes in my closet and keep the weight off. for the first time in forever, i feel in control. (announcer) change your life at golo.com. that's golo.com. not all caitlin clarks are the same. caitlin clark. city planner. just like not all internet providers are the same. don't settle. you want fast. get fast. you want reliable. get reliable. you want powerful. get powerful.

get real deal speed, reliability and power with xfinity. she shoots from here? that's kinda my thing. haslinda: welcome back. china is on holiday, earnings season is done in china with

100% of companies in the msci china index reporting net results. let's do a recap on that data. annual earnings, 31%, 6% in line with expectations. china property front and center. developer woes continue, weighing on sentiment. country garden surprised by missing a deadline for annual earnings results. that is impacting investor sentiment, other saw jumps, all not looking well in china. he says he won't abandon china's economy even with all the problems including the risks of a war with his own country.

ray dalio made the comments on the linkedin post. there you have it, japan back from lunch, looking like this. japan leading the pack in asia in positive territory, extending gains given how weak the currency has been. the weak yen is having some trouble despite intervention from officials in japan. the yen has remained extremely weak after boj delivered its first rate in 17 years and the government's top currency official issued a strong verbal warning to speculators. let's bring in mark cranfield. >> it is probably going to

resolve itself pretty soon, i should think. i would say the japanese ring has reach a point where the authorities are clearly concerned and letting everybody know they cannot go too much further. the u.s. jobs report coming up on friday which is often a big mover for foreign exchange markets. japanese will probably say enough is enough. we will see dollar-yen going lower next week, maybe as low as 145 or something like that. if you get to the we can without a strong jobs report, investors will probably just get tired of it. they haven't seen much joy in the past couple of weeks. we could see a gradual decline

in dollar-yen anyway, even if the authorities have it coming. we will probably see a resolution pretty soon. haslinda: i'm surprised by the optimism. the fed is likely to delay its rate cut even stronger. the data has been pretty strong. >> the fed has now become a neutral factor. there's a conflict between the fed speakers and the data. so for the next several weeks, we will have a constant back and forth between -- it will go on for quite some time. as farce the market you have flat u.s. yields. that is a good, constructive situation for the equity market.

from the dollar's point of view, that is exactly a slight negative. if you tell them they will be flat and go michael -- likely lower. >> our guest things the value is over reported. the difficulty is, they cannot -- it could cause rapid outflows and that would be disastrous for china. they've experienced it before and they don't want to repeat it. the trick is to let it weaken gradually enough that it doesn't upset the stock market and doesn't hurt the economy as well. they realize they will have to let the you want we can gradually. it is just a question of when they will next allow a move a

little bit softer. what we saw yesterday was banging up against the limits they set. another offshore has become a slight problem for them. they will settle there more aggressively than the even haslinda: -- and never before. just to recap, the japan earthquake is taking down buildings in tokyo. the initial magnitude of six, a depth of 40 kilometers, according to the japan med agency. and we have a six magnitude earthquake off the east coast of honshu, saying there is no

tsunami threat from that japan earthquake. it is making comments on the back of that earthquake in japan. the cio at t. rowe price says it risked losing credibility if it cuts rates too soon. he told us it could trigger a repeat of the 1970's when central bank took its foot off the base. >> what stands out to me, if you go back to what powell said early on. if you go back and look at the mistake made then, it was cutting too early. if you map the cpi to the beginning of this cycle, it is following a similar curve. >> so you perceive that as the biggest risk, cutting too soon?

what would it mean for bond markets if they did? >> you would have the spike up and then have to react in a way that would put them on their back foot. >> i want to challenge one thing you said, which is that powell is a student of the 70's. it sounds like he really wants to cut rates. a lot of people are looking at that as a reason to buy stocks. are you saying they have it wrong? >> i do think he is a student of history. to find the middle ground of that group and presented in a way that does indicate consensus broadly, and balance out the other speakers. he is very much trying to do that right now. as you look at the next several months, the idea of cutting where we offer many common perspective does not make a ton of sense right now.

>> if you think the risk of a 70's scenario is greater for the risk of some unforeseen downturn, do you just buy commodities and stocks, avoid bonds at all costs, because it is not clear that this fomc has a conviction to make the right call and not have a policy era. >> i would not go that extreme. we are dramatically neutral is the phrase we have been using between stocks and bonds. but that is where we are. commodities are really interesting. we are overweight energy in the vast majority of those in different ways. there are some really interesting opportunities coming from the bottom up. haslinda: now to energy markets, and with brett closing in on $90 a barrel, it says food prices

could continue climbing. >> i assume we will be hitting $90 by may. but again, as a youngster pointed out, where on the way to hitting $100 as well. haslinda: let's bring in our senior energy reporter. $100 a barrel? >> what is interesting is, the market has shifted so dramatically. look at the chatter on twitter and just a few months ago people were bearish and the people calling for $100 oil were looked at with skepticism. but clearly what is happening is opec-plus has continued cuts. they moved millions of barrels and extend that -- extended

those cuts through the end of june. demand has been a bit more resilient than folks had expected. out on top of that geopolitical risk. the tension that is continuously rising with iran, the united states and the israel-hamas war. you also had mexico looking to reduce their exports to -- when you look at the whole opec-plus situation, they have not been doing the best job at doing it. iraq has also been producing pretty strongly. there is also the question that physically you might see them cut back for real this time. they might actually start to reduce their exports.

all of that together is pushing forward this $100 narrative. the thing is, it it has been such a rapid rise. the bearish tone to the bullish tone, for a long time, going into 2024, there was the idea of a glut. haslinda: they have said the cuts might be maintained through june. they must like the process where they are. >> opec-plus has to play a very delicate game. they want prices above $85, they want saudi arabia to balance their budget and then push forward. once we start hitting $100, that

is when joe biden starts calling you. gasoline prices are rising, and not just joe biden. it is the customers in asia as well. when you look at what opec-plus is supposed to do, they are supposed to provide balance. if the deficit is going to get worse and they are continuing those cuts, soon there -- they want people buying their product, not scoffing at them or politicians calling it out. haslinda: china's economy is in the doldrums. imagine if china were to pick up in his recovery. >> it could put a lot of fuel onto this. >> any of that would add some fuel to the fire. there is resilient demand for oil but the china story has been

won of missed expectations. we will keep expecting china to bounce back after covid but that didn't happen. haslinda: oil headed to $100 may be. still to come, jp morgan expecting more foreign inflows after the general elections. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ ok y'all we got 10 orders coming in... big orders! starting a business is never easy, but starting it 8 months pregnant... that's a different story. i couldn't slow down. we were starting a business from the ground up. people were showing up left and right. and so did our business needs. the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that.

and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase with the chase ink business unlimited card. make more of what's yours.

haslinda: welcome back. let's do a check on how indian might be shaping up, it seemed volatile, seeing massive inflows from international investors pulling their money out of china. perhaps it is time to do the reverse, take money out of india because of the extended valuations and put it into china. let's look at where we are in terms of the india open. asian markets in gains, the other benchmarks in india all in

positive territory. it is a weaker dollar story today. the rupee pre-much unchanged, it has been resilient despite gains we are seeing in the usd. good to have you with us. you are seeing more inflows into india. ? ? what would be the catalyst >> the rally, we have not seen foreign investors participate in that rally. the entire rally has been led over the last 2.5 years. foreign investors have become massively underweight on india over the last 2.5 years because they could not catch up with the benchmark. haslinda: a headline out of india, small caps erasing losses

, sincesebi cautioned on fraud. do you still play those small and mid-cap players? >> the correction happen from early february to mid march. it was an attractive value opportunity to look into the small-cap. i will say that after the recent rebound, it is still abroad play for us. it offers you exposure depending on which country, as well as affordable housing. those plays are not available in larger businesses. they are the growth drivers. for the past five years, we'd cap has given close to 60% versus large-cap which only delivered 20%.

we expect it will continue this year also. haslinda: it's always about returns and you are respecting high returns from indian stocks. can you quantify that? >> if we are seeing continuity in the policy, indian equity market can trade near 25,000. so far whatever returns we have seen in india have been driven by growth. we have not seen any kind of valuation -- if we have continuity, india will do well. haslinda: there is so much complacency. we talk about expectations of policy continuity. if there is a risk out there from this election, what would that be? >> historically we've seen going

into the election, high volatility. as soon as elections are over, there's a sharp decline in volatility. if there is any kind of a concern like this leading to a dip or consolidation, it will end up as a buying opportunity. the clear example is the last two months what happened in small and mid-cap. people missed it and now they are regretting they didn't join the bandwagon. haslinda: what would you be buying right now in terms of sectors? >> financials, real estate, and health care. on the longer term, industrial, utilities and auto will be the play. haslinda: elon musk saying tesla is interested in investing in india. how might that change the narrative and make ev's more attractive in india? >> the global carmakers coming

to india will be very important to maintain the switch to an early rate cut. we seem rapid demand for olympic scooters and the two wheeler in india over the past 2-3 years. the reason it is because charging opportunities are limited. you need a lot of global investment. that is my last month we saw reducing import duty for any global makar -- car manufacturing who set up in india. haslinda: would you trade on tesla's possible move in india, given the fact that indonesia was burned? >> i still say the ev is almost a long-term thing for us. the government is still targeting 30% penetration.

anything linked towards an ev play, everyone in the ecosystem is going to benefit. haslinda: people are talking about taking money out of india and putting it in china because of the overstretched valuations. are they justified in doing that? >> there will be some hedge funds that will be taking the technical bet of near-term. he could be a trade for a very short term, 2-3 months only. beyond that, the structural place will remain. haslinda: oil is surging in india imports most of its oil. is that a risk for the market

and the indian economy? >> definitely. higher oil prices, in case oil keeps going higher, we have seen over the past five years we have a substantial amount of a buffer in there. with india purchasing oil from various countries, that brings some amount of relief. haslinda: so it seems like the long-term trend for india is higher. thank you so much for that. let's do a check on how indian stocks are trading six minutes into the trading day. gains pre-much across the benchmarks in india. also small caps erasing losses since sebi cautioned on that froth. every down day is a buying opportunity when it comes to

india because of the long-term potential. plenty more ahead. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

haslinda: let's do a recap of the headlines, the latest line from tepco saying no abnormalities at the fukushima plant from the earthquake. the quake has caused some shaking in buildings in tokyo. tepco said it was checking the status of the fukushima plant and now saying no abnormalities. the initial magnitude of six, depth of 40 kilometers, according to the japan agency and also a six magnitude quake off the east coast of honshu. saying there is no tsunami threat from that earthquake in japan. we continue to bring you the headlines. tepco saying no abnormalities at the fukushima plant from that earthquake. in the wider market we are seeing gains across the board,

markets like china and taiwan and hong kong are shut for the holiday. we will watch those commodity plays, gold surging come up by .2%. brent crude also surging, closing at $90 a barrel. prompt thing -- prompting some to say we could soon see 200. copper also and outperformer. gains pretty much for most of asia. that is it from bloomberg "markets: asia." keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

do you want to close out? should i? normally i'd hold. but... taking the gains is smart here, right? feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

>> the following is a paid program. the opinions and views expressed do not reflect those of bloomberg lp, its affiliates, or >> the following is a paid