we are 30 minutes into the u.s. trading day here are the top stories we are following. coming in hot, traders pricing and chose to rate cuts from the fed. we will discuss what those sticky price points mean. godiva raising prices on chocolate. we speak about pricing with master chocolatier jacques torres

. katie: there's a lot of right on the screen. big tech also down 1% after the cpi figures with 10 year. let's talk about that hot inflationary data slamming the door on the june fed pivot. across the board this came in higher than expectations? mike: both headline and core was up .4 which pushed up the

year over year rate. a big disappointment to wall street. a disappointment to the fed. the fed has not moved its target rate since july of 2023. the inflation rate has stalled out. we have not seen inflation rise since then it has stayed roughly in the same place. it hasn't gone down and that is keeping the fed and investors unhappy even though the fed follows the pce numbers, these numbers matter to the market which banners to the fed. this means a big change in expectations. the market has priced out a june, july and september price cut and now we are back to a september rate cut but only to

this year. will the fed ratify that? they don't produce a new dot plot until then but the may meeting is off the table. katie: were talking about a potential rate cut close to the november election when you think about the political implications hobbled the fed be thinking about that stock and mike: it will be looking at the implications but avoiding them because they don't want to get involved. but the president has to hope that they do. inflation itself keeps going up. the rate of inflation has fallen

but as you can see, has not changed in months. americans are looking at the inflation level in the white house wants to point to the blue line but there's not a lot of progress. katie: are things to have mike mckee joining us from washington. we are joined by and very threatened needle ventures founder. let's talk about what is happening in markets because the s&p is down by 1% on the heels of that march print. does this reaction make sense? ann: i don't think the market should have been surprised. i do think it's the magnitude is

pointing to the risk of no rate cuts and that is new. katie: you have that on one end and state street saying of 50 basis point in june. underneath what we're talking about you have inflation but we are talking about high prices continuing to rise. what does that mean for the consumer? ann: what we have seen the consumer to is adjust their purchasing. when i think about what that means for certain sectors, it's a continuation of what started last year which is 17% training down to cheaper options. katie: there was a story

crossing the terminal a couple of minutes ago from goldman sachs that advocates it is time to take the profits you have made in technology and broaden it out to other areas. maybe it is time for other sectors to see that love and see that in the price action. how do you feel about the tech? ann: we pre-alternated to names like old-time to try and get more diversification if we go into this uncertain environment. katie: we are on the heels of cpi figures and people

reprioritizing their spending. why beauty? is that broad brush strokes? ann: historically it comes to be resilient because people said at home and spend real money on cosmetics and skin care. we have seen consumers tighten their belts around luxury but beauty to's to do ok. they came out last week and said the categories have difficult growth comps. katie: when it comes to old to, give me some more color there? ann: i am having slight deja

vu. in 2021 walmart started to make noise around is odd tech business. 100 million americans come into our stores so we have to do more with that data. ulta has 43 million on his loyalty program which is a massive opportunity for sophisticated merchandising, more can be done with data. i do think there is a retail media strategy that is untapped. ulta has a 20 billion cap in the room. katie: when it comes to the media strategy, tiktok and the

social media apps because these get ready with me videos. people watching other people do their makeup. ann: we have the shift towards skincare, spf and sunscreen in names like lola plex because it is high functioning and high performance. the content driven sales model because the average shelf life of these influencers is short. but this retail strategy with great loyalty programs. you have websites where you spend time browsing and not something you can do around odd

tech. katie: does this thesis apply to clothing distributors as well? ann: i don't like apparel because of the frivolity around it is difficult to invest in. abercrombie & fitch has been nothing short of spectacular and they have been clever about getting an affordable reformation brand. katie: we talked about it yesterday, the ability to reinvent themselves but bring that to ola plex. is that

reinvention possible for a name like ola plex? ann: abercrombie was tainted with controversy around sexual harassment. ola plex had a name about restoring hair. there was a claim that it damaged hair and it's hard to restore trust. i think this will force ola plex into m&a. katie: it comes down to the

product and whether it works. i so enjoyed this conversation and i hope i get to see you soon. and barry with thread needle ventures. delta airlines is really popping right now. >> we are seeing strong expectations for a second quarter earning which is helping delta, united and american airlines. this is based on study travel demand. delta has been benefiting from the weakness from domestic travel and strong traditional demand with corporate travel and all of those names benefit from that used a travel.

this shares saw a big jump today, delta is the best performer for all the big airlines in the first one to report on results so far. we are seeing a good path ahead for the other airlines who are yet to report because a revival in business travel could be shares in those companies as well. katie: need good news for the airlines. talk to me about intel because that's a different story. >> we saw a reaction in the intel stock but this is hard to follow. the story from intel has been quiet there has been a turnaround going for a while but it has fallen to 27 billion.

the biggest concern is ai and investors are worried that intel may be moving too slow and missing the ai way. we are seeing a big gap between competitors. a strong year in 2023 and it is down with nvidia doing quite well. that ai competition is tightening up. katie: a company with ai and esteem is down. this is the same team. they are announcing the intention to sell shares. we saw a roaring start of the

year but if you look at the last few months, the picture has turned dire and is perhaps part of the team of fewer and fewer winners. they may offer to sell up to 150 million shares so you can imagine that is not a good sign for investors. katie: that share is down mere 7%. how surging inflation is affecting manufacturers. we will speak with nicholas t pinchuk snap-on inc ceo ofsnap-on inc ceo ofsnap-on inc ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks, and you're in business. make now the future at godaddy.com/airo

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ceo in this country's inflation is hot, why am i not raising prices? i'm going to get double-digit earnings, inflation is up and other people are raising the prices why don't i raise my prices? and that becomes the self-fulfilling prophecy where the rubber meets the road. katie: that was the reaction to this morning's hot inflation data. let's get the boots on the ground of how this is playing out. with us we have nicholas pinchuk where you surprised to see inflation come in higher? nicholas: i'm not sure i can measure the difference from where we are on the ground it

doesn't seem that much different. in terms of manufacturers, inflation isn't the big factor. some are up, some are but we just came through a difficult p eriod. i would say this interlude is not troubling. your previous clip showed people wringing their hands but i don't see that with manufacturers. other things bother manufacturers about the global environment so those things that are not quantifiable are bothering consumers. katie: go into detail about what is bothering manufacturers with

the global landscape? nicholas: it is a tale of two cities. small and big manufacturers. small manufacturers were more optimistic and big manufacturers were looking to see a recession coming in the third quarter of last year it changed in small manufacturers became more worried and continue to be so where larger manufacturers felt they could manage it. we have the ability to manage it while small manufacturers have less room for error. like consumers the mechanics they are worried about the bad news for breakfast. you cannot be comforted by economic models like to worsen the middle east and the conflict in china with taiwan and the

cuban missile crisis. you are talking about the border where a lot of people know they get their workers but is turned into a frenzied migration in the red sea. the optics of the bridge and the uncertainty of the election. fear is the mind killer. it is the outlook killer and you see that in small manufacturers. manufacturers are disappointed with the government. coming out of the pandemic they were going to be the heroes cap the essential work going and managed through the supply crisis. they don't see that in policy.

tax credits are not working the way they anticipated. katie: there is a lot to dig into but i want to talk about small business. we also got data when it comes to small businesses and their confidence and optimism dropped to an 11 year low which matches up with what you were saying. when it comes to those small businesses and small manufacturers how does that influence the decisions they're making versus large manufacturers? nicholas: they are a bit like the customers in the garages. mechanics get paid by the job about the hour. they will focus on smaller and shorter payback items with capital expenditures and make sure they don't get out in traffic.

they are worried about the future. small manufacturers have a lot less room for error. just like regulation, everyone complains about them but they way down manufacturers but small manufacturers are burdened twice the amount the larger manufacturers by regulation caused by employee. katie: that's a really good point in a good perspective. some of the things we are talking about when it comes to sentiment and optimism you talk about on shoring and geopolitical tensions. some of these issues transcend more than a four year trend but how do you expect this to resolve when we get past the

presidential election? nicholas: stability is an important thing. if you know what happens you can create stability for the future. if you look at the consumer, people talk about the atlantic monthly and wall street journal why are consumers working on feeling rather than the economy. there are a lot of people changing supermarkets because of coupons. things like strawberries and other things and what they are seeing is milk prices going down slightly but they are still above their bubble some people worry about that.

in terms of manufacturers, the message i am giving is the people at work at both small and big manufacturers they are cash rich and a good environment. grudges are brimming. i talked with people in atlanta and california and over in iowa. the garage is our strong, people are cash rich book confidence poor. you see some of that in asia and that's what's driving the chinese economy. they are cash forward, china has never been at its grassroots less confident. juxtapose that with india. the current leader i think they found their guy who can find commonality out of that

patchwork that is india and they are very confident about their economy. japan has an extreme rate problem. malaysia and singapore doing pretty good. katie: we have to have you back soon because i really enjoyed this conversation with important perspective there. we are with nicholas pinchuk. you look at the s&p 500 it was off 1% and some of that is coming back at s&p is still down .8% with big tech down .9% with the bond market taking the brunt of the selloff with the 10 year higher at 4.5. life is a box of chocolate which

is really expensive. we will speak with jacques torres. ♪ ad nauseam. but oh how he can nail a software solution like the best high screen pick and roll you've ever seen. you need ron. ron needs a retirement plan. work with principal so we can help you help ron with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours. should i? normally i'd hold. but... taking the gains is smart here, right? feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

>> coco prices have nearly doubled this year things to global shortages announcing today the price of a box of chocolates will rise thanks to these rising costs. jennifer takes a look at what's going on underneath the wrapper. jennifer: that weather and crop disease have impacted aging coco trees, decimating harvests. ivory coast now expects output to slump around 25% this season. in neighboring ghana, output is set by 35% and in both countries coco processing plants are facing shortages and some run the risk of shutting down. the world's largest bulk

chocolate maker expects a global deficit to continue. manufacturers hershey and cadbury have warned of higher prices for consumers. with chocolate maker's for supply, it's doubled in less than three months. surging for the first time. yet farmers have struggled to benefit from these record prices. even after winning a higher pay deal because west african growers are paid set prices imposed by tight government regulation. even the economies of ivory coast and ghana will benefit as they sell most of their crop one year before the harvest starts. they could sell at current prices but they've run out of stock amid the surging demand. new european union rules banning imports of beans grown on deforested land risks limiting output even more. all of this means a meltdown and the chocolate market could be

looming unless their long-term structural changes in place. >> that is jennifer zabasajja. let's look at the potential chocolate meltdown she mentioned. we are joined by the master chocolatier and the founder and ceo of schock torres chocolate braided amazing to have you in studio. i will ask the obvious question. how are you dealing with this? >> we did not raise our price yet because it takes sometimes before so the question is for this coming christmas and halloween. , certainly we are going to get higher prices. we already have two increases in prices for chocolates. that's the forecast we have and then we will miss 25 to 30%, we

have less cookout in the world today. it is a challenge. >> it is interesting to hear you say that this will affect christmas. it sounds like this isn't something that will be resolved in a couple of months. >> it is going to take time. the ivory coast and ghana get hit by a little bit too much moisture. unless prediction and then dryness after that. so that will wipe out a lot of trees. i am not against the higher price of coco for the farmer to get the fair share. the farmer gets their fair share i think that will keep grain to cow and stay. but it is way possible a lot of the farmers say we want another crop and then it's a catastrophe. so again we need to pay those farmers a little bit more. they need to have their fair share. >> it's a great reminder we operate in the physical world and when were talking about

things such as the whether in fungus it's not like you can just move numbers around and it goes away. when it comes to potentially having to raise prices from here how would you expect your consumers to respond. >> you don't have to eat chocolate. maybe but usually not. what's going to happen is people will buy less chocolates. the sales of chocolates already are down so it's going to i think not be a very good season for us. what we can do is put a little bit more inclusion inside the chocolates. if the elements are less expensive than to cow then we need to find a little bit more elements. so the chocolate bar is the same weight. the customer gets the same product and i think they will be happier than shrinking the size of the product. that's what i try to do working with the inclusion and maybe

innovation work and maybe it's an opportunity for us. >> so you might actually change the product recipes around to sort of make up for the fact the price of coco is going up and there's less available of it. jacques: we do that. i usually buy mike cow from central america from the americas let's say from venezuela to mexico. i'm part of a farm with 5000 trees and we grow very rare to cow. i might make more of that because we are going to have a shortage on the other. it should not impact us so much to get the cow but it is going to be impacted. so the price will go up definitely. >> that was one of my questions

is are you going to change how you source your beans but it doesn't seem like it will impact you as much. >> it's a little bit easier for us. it is a shorter trip. and leads to better cookout. if you look at africa it's more, those big companies from africa. we buy less from africa and more from the americas. >> when it comes to how you by your coco. how far do they go. >> if i buy finish chocolates usually make the contract for a year and that's difficult because we negotiate pretty hard and we don't always get what we want. if i bike a cow i usually go directly to the farm and talk to them. and pay them more than the market to be able to get what i need. that's the only way you have to pay. >> when it comes to you potentially having to raise your

prices to consumers, what sort of magnitude of price increase could we be talking about. >> i know between today and the end of the year two time the price of my chocolates going up. by 10% each time. they already went up to time so we know pretty much what we are doing with prices and the only thing we can do is buy a little bit more now, dark chocolate has a most two years of shelflife. but eventually we will get hit it's the question. katie: we are talking about coco now but if you look at the past several years from the start of the pandemic now it is coco but it was wheat and palm oil, sugar and dairy. jacques: i use a lot of 60% coco contents was a pretty high coco contents but the 40% are sugar. i think people 40% sugar.

so all the price transportation is up so yes we will have to work with the consumer and try to raise our price a little bit. we cannot go too far. katie: to your point you don't really need to eat chocolate every day. a lot of people do but given we are talking about these raw ingredients. that seem price stability. do you think that's going to change how you do your business. jacques: i think we going to different way. it's a lot of mismanagement. aging population, aging trees and mismanagement so i think a little bit more investment into those to cow farms will help -- cacao farms will help. i don't see how we can keep going the way we do today.

katie: we've been talking about the past few years you've been in this business for quite a while now. can you think of any other period of time similar to what we are experiencing right now. jacques: never. it went over $10,000 a ton on the future. that's the first time we've seen something like that. i heard about shortage and helping to find different trees to produce more so that was kind of results but now the climate changing and again the farm being mismanaged we need to change something there. >> i hope to speak to you again soon. let's go back to these equity markets right now. get a check on what's going on. we will do that with abigail doolittle. abigail: in the premarket we had the s&p 500, futures down 1.5%.

at this point we have the s&p 500 just 6/10 of 1%, cooler heads reacting. after that warm cpi print. above the 15 handle. we also have the bloomberg dollar index. heading to its best day since february at the highs. take a look at the 10 year yield. this is where the real action is. bonds with this big backup in yields as investors are pricing in the idea of higher for longer. swaps looking at just two cuts this year for the fed if you compare that to market expectation up six or seven last december. that of course means we have the two year yield close to back where it was last november and close to the psychological important level of 5%. confirming a bottoming pattern

the does suggest we could see it go well above 5%, the highest level since last november. in the biggest backup in yields for the two year yield since the svb blow up in prices, that's the degree of repricing we are seeing. as yields go higher we have seen these levels of stocks could digested. pressure for some of the tech stocks and putting apple and microsoft, both of those down 7/10 of 1% liquidity fears there's not to be as much as expected. there is a bright spot. that of course is delta, that is a nice move higher today over the last four days we are up 4.6% at the highs on the day more than 3%. very exciting is they are talking about strong travel demand. their outlook for this quarter on a profit basis to $2.50.

delta in the green. katie: coming up as india prepares to head to the polls we will hear from the rockefeller international chairman about investing in india. that's next, this is bloomberg. ♪

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you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh abigail: you're looking at a live shot of the principal room. an interview with the edward jones ceo. this is bloomberg. katie: it's time for our daily wall street week conversation. it's just over one week till india voters go to the polls in the general election. it will be far from a quick process per the world's most populous democracy votes in seven phases over 44 days. rockefeller international

chairman spoke with david westin yesterday about india's economic rise and what to expect from the upcoming election. >> if you look at india's economic progress since it got independence in 1947, right up until the 1980's india was a big economy, it's ranking per capita incomes in terms of the gdp size kept on falling for the entire period. the turning point as far as they were concerned i would say was really the 1990's when you had the major boost of economic reforms when the indian economy went bankrupt and had to go to the imf program. india's economic turnaround, that's what led to india's rise

and what we see over the past few years is a continuing momentum of that rise in the early 1990's. david: that began before prime minister modi came to office. how much is he getting credit today in india for that as he looks towards these elections. ruchir: he is getting a lot of credit for that. one is the fact that it's reached a sort of critical mass which is when india was rising in the 1990's were the 2000s the base was much smaller. in per capita income terms it's a relatively small base but now that it's become the world's fifth largest economy that just tends to have a much greater effect. but in terms of his direct credit i think the one thing which is possibly underestimated is how non-inflationary this has been over the last few years that if you look at the previous growth spurts india had particularly the preceding

government one of the big problems was it also led to a surge in inflation. inflation is been relatively low and that's a big plus because in politics around the world economic growth won't matter, inflation matters. nothing kills the prospects of incumbents as much as rising prices and the fact that inflation has been relatively under control is one of those underappreciated factors because we as economic commentators focus so much on the headline gdp growth so the fact we have very low inflation, a relatively low inflation i think has been a positive. the other things which are working in the favor is this growth spurt has happened at a time in so many other emerging markets including china. >> which i think takes us to an ultimate question for wall street week is is it a good investment. in the past you've said india tends to the point -- disappoint

he optimist and pessimist sooner or later. it sounds like modi is a pretty good investment but not as good for india once it moves past modi. >> it said india is a very good investment. i think that india in general is a country that needs to move along. it's two steps forward, one step back. under modi you've got economic progress but i only say two things to summarize my view here. yes india does appear to have a lot of great momentum for now. the second thing i will caution is that don't put all your eggs in one basket. for five years ago everyone only wanted to speak up on china as

the operative emerging market and it sucked the energy out of so many investment opportunities because it was seen as the only real big winning bid in emerging markets. all the sentiment turned on that. >> that was the rockefeller international chairman. and of course wall street we coast david westin who joins me now. great conversation. a lot to get into. one of the biggest questions heading into the election is how much credit modi deserves for what we are seeing out of india's economy. david: and how much of the indian people giving him whether he deserves it or not. he's done a superb job of the pr marketing in his country. at the same time is done superb job of discouraging some of the critics in the press and some opponents over there which is something that used to happen in south korea or taiwan. he is very charismatic.

katie: a lot of it when it comes to translating economic successes is marketing and how you actually invest in that. when you think about the different policies what are the examples of policies that were put into effect by modi that are bearing fruit right now. >> he was very pro-business, he was very anti-regulation really try to have some stability but also is invested a lot in infrastructure which india has needed badly and invested a lot in infrastructure and its perceived -- he could do more, could have done more. but he has done a fair amount so it makes it much more attractive. a good investment compared to what. the fact people don't want to invest for the most part in china -- katie: how many times have you heard india x china, i thought

it was interesting the comments on you don't want to put all of your eggs in one basket. like people were doing with china may 5 years ago. david: don't we tend to see every buddy rush to one place which is generative ai or nvidia and they may be good investments but it's also the markets tend to overreact a little bit and their other emerging markets that make some sense to invest in. places like indonesia for example. vietnam that are over in the asia area. katie: people just run to one side of the vote -- of the boat all at once. great conversation per who also we have coming up. david: we talked to natosha at yale who has a new project called the budget lab. she's put together a nonprofit nonpartisan to analyze the fiscal situation and what happens if we extend those trump tax cuts. katie: our thanks to david

westin. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ hello, mia. are you ready to meet your demise? man, we really need to upgrade your trash talk. ♪♪ nice shot... shot... taker. who programmed you?! i'll see you tomorrow. the future isn't scary, not investing in it is. 100 innovative companies, one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

>> let's take a look at some stocks hitting highs and lows and we will kick off with bmw hitting a 52-week high and sales of the german automakers surge in the first quarter outperforming rivals like tesla. you don't often hear about surging ev sales but you've heard it from bmw. hitting a 52-week low after they marked the lowest delivery since mid 2021. an engineer is alleging company took manufacturing shortcuts on it 787 dreamliner aircraft. boeing shares off by about 2% down by more than 30% year-to-date. that pain continuing today.

we want to look at charter communications also hitting lows after it was put on a negative catalyst watch. currently charter communications shares down about 4%. it is a down day for the broader market as well. after we got the cpi figures for march you take a look at what's going on with the s&p 500. it's off its lows but pretty close currently down about 1% or so even worse if you take a look at big tech which tends to be more sensitive in the bond market. you take a look at the nasdaq 100 currently off by 1.1% is that selloff in the bond market continues. the 10 treasury up 13.5 basis points. it's a whisker good low 4.5%. coming up, the general adventure partners joins us with caroline hyde with ed -- with caroline hyde and ed ludlow.

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>> from the heart of her innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. caroline: on caroline hyde in new york. ed: this is bloomberg technology. caroline: full coverage on the inflation print cpi harder than expected openai board member larry summers joins us to discuss. ed: tsmc sales surge after riding the ai chip boom. we will break down the details and discuss in