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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  April 15, 2024 11:00pm-12:00am EDT

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is almost 11 a.m. singapore and shanghai. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." here are the top stories. china's first quarter gdp growth meets expectations, but retail sales for march missed forecasts, showing consumers are still not stepping up. the pboc, forced into a weaker yuan fate. the bank indonesia intervenes andyen traders, bracing for intervention. we have a great lineup of guests. morningstar's global cio just ahead and later we will be joined by crypto.com's chris m. let's take it to the asian stocks. under a lot of pressure. the ms ci down almost 2%. it was down about 1% yesterday having to do with those u.s. retail sales numbers, cpi suggesting sticky inflation,
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pushing back on expectations of the rate cut -- a rate cut by the fed treasury. yields climbing. 10 year yields at a new high. data has been pretty mixed. the yuan weakness, persisting. some suggesting the pboc finally vowing to reality. take a look at where we are, beating estimates of 4.8%. a busy day for key data out of china. china's economy beat expectations the first quarter boasting expectations the government can meet its ambitious annual target of 5% but more of a mixed bag, with much activity data, while fixed asset investment the results for industrial production and retail sales, they both missed estimates. meanwhile china's new home
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prices are showing a slight improvement in march from february while still contracting for a 10th straight month. we heard earlier from the blackrock vice chair, philip hildebrand, on his take of the chinese data. >> there's a lack of domestic demand that is going to be a challenge going forward. number came in roughly a little bit above expectations. you can see the global activity helps. the policy stance helps. but over time the challenge is going to be this domestic demand problem and of course the fact that china is really in de flation. >> let's get more analysis on china's economic data as well as today's swings with our chief asian economist and strategist stephen c. a strong beat on first quarter gdp but disappointment elsewhere. what are some of the key
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takeaways? what does it tell us? >> the that a today certainly -- >> the data today certainly contains some positives. but in the meantime it raises quite serious questions about recovery sustainability. if you look at the data in detail, the beat is entirely driven by government spending. it is positive in the sense the government has been more proactive compared to last year supporting growth so it can lift sentiment and drive initial momentum in recovery, however, it is not guaranteed that it will turn into a self sustainable recovery because as we can see the production has been very weak and the demand as
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reflected by retail sales is a pretty feeble. >> so, that 5% gdp target which some say is pretty ambitious is pretty much intact at this point in time. but nonetheless more stimulus is needed, more help from china. >> indeed. we do see going forward the economy does need support. certainly the government will support it. at this point we see the support will mostly come from the fiscal side rather than the monetary side in the near-term. the government has been much more proactive than last year. we see fiscal spending the first couple of months has been faster than the previous years. that certainly can give the economy much needed support. at this point the pboc's policy
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is constrained by the weakness of the yen. i think the pboc has a renewed focus on the exchange rate. previously, during a few years, it was less focused on the exchange rate. but now it is sort of going back to worry about the exchange rate again that does constrain how much or when it is going to start cutting the interest rate again. >> let's talk about the yuan. it does seem like the pboc's finally bowing to the reality of a weak economy. the weakest yuan in about a month. >> this is bound to happen. it's just a matter of time. because the dollar is so strong across the board, firstly because of a more hawkish fed and the right expectation and secondly the geopolitical tensions between iran and israel helping the dollar. that's why it will have to
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be under pressure against the dollar. the pboc decided to lift because the yuan's basket is to strong in their eyes -- too strong in their eyes. that is why they yoan might look weak against the dollar but it is strong against other currencies. especially the euro and the yen in particular. it's not just about the dollar, but they have to care about the yuan, being weak enough as well against the rest of the basket currencies. that is why. >> i know it is really difficult to predict, but what really is the true value of the yuan? what do you see the pboc doing from here? >> to be very honest, we have a fair value model. fx traders right now have
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a value of about seven. that would be a fair value. given the strong dollar, every kind of valuation doesn't work not just for china but every currency basically. as long as the dollar stay strong, we think the upside pressure will be there. that's why they will have to stay on guard. keeping this level for longer, they would have to stay around to support the yuan until the fed really cuts for the first time. >> we talk about how the pboc on the government will have to take additional measures to stimulate the economy, when might that be? what might that look like? >> in terms of the fiscal side, it is ongoing, as i mentioned, the first couple of months, the government has been very clear about how they are going to support the economy. in terms of the monetary side, when is the pboc going to cut
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the rate given the constraints? on the exchange rate side. there are different scenarios. one possibility that statement just mentioned is the pboc waits until the fed makes a move. another possibility is the ecb indicated it might not wait for the fed. entirely decided based on europe's development. so potentially if the ecb makes a move ahead of the fed, that makes the pboc, if it wants to make a move, it means that is not going to be the first central bank to cut interest rates this year, so that potentially creates another window to move ahead of the fed. >> stephen, it is about a strong dollar environment causing massive gyrations
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in the asian fx space. bank indonesia has intervened to support the currency after it reached 16,000 to the dollar. the first time since 2020. what kind of headaches must this be creating for central banks in asia? >> we put out a note this morning talking about this. now it is very similar to 2022. basically across asia, all central banks are facing pressure. now we are at very interesting levels if you look at other asia pairs. taiwan, the rupee, the peso, these are the intervened or talked about it and we are back to these levels. that's why we have to watch the central bank actions. they will be more active this quarter to support currencies. >> not too long ago they were talking about rate cuts. not only the case --
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case in point not the case right now. let's get more reaction to china's economic data was -- with the chief research officer at porn -- at morningstar. how is this shaping how you view the investments? >> currency we know is very volatile. it is very difficult to predict. stephen said it is a trading asset. so really investors need to think of it as a risk. it also drives revenues. the market could be slow to see through the impact of revenues and costs. currency is important. we tend to think of it as a separate thing to worry about when we look at individual asset classes. the rise in the dollar is on everyone's minds at the moment. >> the rest of the dollar putting a lot of pressure on the
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yuan and chinese economy as well. how are you looking at it and the lens of exceeded expectations? does that encourage you to put more money into china? >> it was a little bit mixed but better than expected. the thing to remember -- you know this about economic data. it's always backward looking. the first quarter was a bit better. now we have to look forward and see what lies ahead. what we seem to be seen in china is a bit of an emergence of more confidence among the consumers there and the government's tried to promote growth because growth is good for china and that looks like it is taking hold. that may be great for chinese assets, as people think again about the outlook for china and hopefully become less bearish. for us we have had positions in chinese technology companies for the last couple of years following the shortfalls but it
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has -- but it is still a small part of our portfolio. >> so when people were exiting china, you made a bid for china. which ones in particular ny? is at about valuation? >> primarily about valuation, it is the big quality high-tech names that you might have heard of that my compliance people insist i don't talk about what people can imagine -- so yes, it is the large cap chinese technology companies. we think they are great businesses. they suffered terrible sentiment that is still ongoing in many cases but we have seen good valuations. thinking about investment, it's always about the quality of the business first and then the value at which you can buy it today. >> kind of like a stock pickers market. >> it really is. >> what else looks attractive in china apart from tech? >> some good names around the
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consumer space as well. that reflects valuations primarily. when thinking about real estate, around the whole region, it looks very cheap but there are structural challenges there. it will take a brave investor to jump into that right now but we have seen good valuations. there are plenty of opportunities. but as you say, when thinking about not just china at the moment but the broader market, it is much more of a stock pickers market then we have seen over the last two years. >> the counterargument is there are other markets. china is to for a reason and people are saying, take money out of china and put it in india where you will seek -- see even 10% growth in the future. why? >> you never get things that are cheap without a reason and the reason is always the same, the reason is sentiment. and sometimes that sentiment is
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valid. sometimes it goes a little too far. in china it seems to us and has gone a little too far. if you look at india, that is a wonderful market. it's got a very rich set of good companies. as you say, as an economy and nation, it's going very quickly. it's an exciting, vibrant place to invest. but we see valuations being quite high. the good news is already priced in. the returns are lower than elsewhere. >> the pace of gains we have seen in india is not sustainable. is that a fair assumption? >> that is right, we would see india's pretty fully valued. it doesn't mean it can become overvalued. that happens in the short-term. sacks in more money and more optimists. but from a sustainable perspective, it looks expensive to us and better opportunities elsewhere. >> can you give us a sense of how it is looking? >> for global portfolios, both markets will be fairly
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small for investors. >> 75%? >> i would say with china, 5%. -- >> about 5%? >> i would say with china, 5%. exactly right. we certainly favor china over india. that reflects to say valuation perspective. india with 30,000 listed stocks, there will be plenty of opportunities for individual investors but if you are thinking of it from a market perspective, we will see more opportunities elsewhere. >> and tight -- hang tight. still ahead, this hour, are exclusive interview with chris m. we discuss expansion plans and the outlook for digital currencies. less a preview of -- plus a preview of rocky giraffe. all that coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> u.s. data overnight, suggesting higher for longer even though the fed did say that they expect rate cuts this year but the timing remains the uncertainty. we are talking about retail sales, cpi beating expectations. the vix also by the way hitting levels unseen this year.
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we are seeing a surge in treasury yields. two-year yields right now, 492. i got to 4.99 -- 4.92. it got to 4.99. we are not far away from that level. let's bring back the chief investment officer at morningstar. we have seen a massive run in mega caps. time to lose elsewhere. >> absolutely. particularly the tech stocks have been driving the market. particularly the first quarter. the so-called magnificent seven of last year which probably are not seven anymore but certainly they are driving the market. people are very enthusiastic. where we are seeing the value is further down the market cap scale, we have seen much better value and more cyclically orientated stock split particularly in some of the --
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further down the market cap. we may be going into a stock pickers market for the first time in a long time. >> and a space you are comfortable at. what have you been doing as of late? taking a look at the overbought position of the seven, where exactly are you looking at to pick up the stocks -- pick up the stocks? >> about 18 months ago, we were in the doldrums, people concerned about rising inflation and rising rates and large cap type sold off. we added to positions there. right now we are gradually reducing those positions in favor of smaller cap stocks both in the u.s. but also looking at some of the other develop an emerging markets around the world. if you look at what morningstar says, they are seeing the same thing, valuation of the top of the market and opportunities at the bottom.
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>> we have seen a surge in yields, how will that way on stocks? >> the last couple of takes, it is already weighing on stocks. people were hoping for low yields and lower inflation and rates this year and now that mary expectation has been confounded gradually at first and then quickly over the last week or so, people are looking for confirmation of the new narrative that there will be higher rates for longer, but in reality we don't know what the next stage of the economy is, we have gone through an extra mary period -- extraordinary period that started with the recovery. one economic polls has moved through the economy, we don't know exactly what's going to happen next. but as it weighs on stocks, and of course hurts the current valuation, it creates more opportunities. >> 3.5%, 6%, what are we looking at? >> 6% seems strong when people
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are expecting rate cuts at the back end of the year but 5%, we are almost there. it's been that shocking last rise in the last few days. when the market really gets behind a price or really gets behind the yield, it can move very quickly and momentum builds on itself. the key thing is to not assume that things will always count as they move away from that fair value it becomes harder to sustain the momentum. >> as far as you are concerned no conviction when it comes to big tech. we have an mlive question, how will the earnings season impact big tech's momentum? >> that's a very good question. it depends on what the rest of the market is doing. in that first quarter, there is strong earnings -- very strong earnings out of big tech. what we saw last week was some of the banks, with disappointment in the outlook leading to sharply falling prices. this is a market it seems now
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we are investors don't like to be disappointed by earnings. so we could see both disappointment that comes to any stock drive prices low but now that the large cap tech is so dominant, really how they do against expectations will be really important. but like all companies, they are hoping to beat by bringing back expectations going into the quarter end. >> before we let you go, your conviction calls, what will make you the money this year? >> the first conviction call is to look beyond the top of the market. move beyond idea that it is all about geopolitics and all about the fed. that's what is dominating our heads. but for investments we need to look lower. second, we are seeing more value outside the u.s. we talked about emerging markets. also parts of europe as well where we are seeing opportunities. for all investors, cast the net really brought. stocks over bonds this year,
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but every basis point that bond yields rise, they become a better value, better foundation for your portfolio. >> thank you, dan of morningstar. plenty more ahead. keep it with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> markets, under pressure on the back of heightened expectations and data out of the u.s. and china. gdp come up eight, exceeding 5% -- gdp, exceeding 5%. under pressure along with the shanghai comp door my 1% -- down by 1%. it is about the yuan. currently at 723.68 weakening
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the fix at the lowest level in a month. some suggest and perhaps it is a true reflection of the chinese economy. overall it is a read day -- a re d day. stocks and bonds under pressure. currencies in particular. it's a strong dollar story putting a lot of pressure on emerging-market currencies the likes of, idr, bank of indonesia intervening with the idr, surpassing 16,000 to the dollar. still to come, crypto.com's coo will be joining us. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...”
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haslinda: welcome back. we are taking a look at
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cryptocurrencies. bitcoin, $63,228 is the level we are looking at. hong kong has given conditional approvals to start spot bitcoin and either etf's. that is expected to boost digital assets as well as the wider crypto market. competing with singapore, dubai and others to become a digital asset hub. for more we are joined exclusively by kris marszalek, cofounder and ceo at crypto.com, a crypto currency exchange with about 100 million customers worldwide. first up, the pros and cons of doing business in hong kong. kris: obviously we are very pleased that the change in the hong kong environment in terms of the approach to digital assets. new framework has come out. in the conditional approval of
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bitcoin and ether is a sign of general support in hong kong. haslinda: how does hong kong compared to a market like korea for instance, where there is great interest in crypto among retail investors? and you are launching your app at the end of the month. how do you expect to do in a market like korea? kris: korea has historically been very difficult to enter. we have spent over two years preparing for launch. it is obviously one of the largest crypto markets globally with very high adoption rate and extremely active retail user base. so we will see how we do. we are in it for the long term. we have entered through acquisition of two licenses in a very prolonged buildout. it has allowed us to provide a competitive off -- offering to korean consumers. haslinda: in terms of rocks and
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services, what -- products and services, what can be expected with your app? kris: our mission is to provide access to digital assets on a global level and doing it in a regulatory compliant manner. users in korea can expect us to continue in this fashion, being a trusted place where they can trade crypto and a good selection of it. further down the road we are very well known for our crypto card program. we will do our best to launch it in korea as soon as possible. haslinda: i want to talk about the spot bitcoin etf that was bigger than expected demand. what assumption are you making about appetite going forward and the long-term impact that may have? kris: i think structurally it is a very good set up. you have daily inflows against
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the backdrop of bitcoin coming in a couple of days which will reduce supply-side further. structurally this is well-positioned. obviously bitcoin in crypto right now in general is part of a global financial system so we are not completely disconnected from what is happening in equities, for example, and what is happening with monetary policy or with what is happening in the geopolitical environment. i think there is a general phase going on right now similar to the previous cycles. haslinda: do you see any change in terms of the crip market structure on the back to that etf? kris: definitely.
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those are flows that were previously not present. so i would say probably the proportion of coin prices being driven by retail activity, slow investor activity versus institutional is changing during the cycle. the things we used to look for is decision-making on bitcoin etf's and perhaps other crypto currency etf's or even crypto currency basket etf's in the future because again this may strengthen flows. haslinda: you talked about the bitcoin halving expected to happen in april. i'm wondering how much impact that might have given the kind of demand we are seeing for that etf as of late. might that take away some of the impact? kris: i would say that it improves the overall situation
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because we have less bitcoin coming into the market being sold by the miners and you are just cutting this in half. it will not make a difference over a day or two or a week. but over a period of six months and makes a substantial difference. so this is definitely a very positive development for the market. one must always remember -- as we approach this date there might be some selling coming out. haslinda: right. and we are seeing easing of bitcoin prices right now, below $64,000 as we speak. do you see the rally continuing? what might lead bitcoin higher from here? kris: again, i think this is a period of consolidation. we are seeing this happen in previous cycles.
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this is an asset you want to hold for a of the -- hold for a very long time, for decades. i strongly recommend everyone at this to your portfolio. i personally expect a big performance over the next six months. haslinda: in terms of your own strategy at crypto.com, how does it look for the next six, 12 months? kris: all about scaling the size of the platform. we are approaching 100 million users. the retail intent so far has been muted compared to the previous cycle. he gives us this notion that we are still early in the cycle. it is all about scaling. again, we have almost completed our regulatory licensing in all major markets so we are ready to grow the business as fast as we possibly can. haslinda: and a time when we are
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seeing pretty aggressive strategies from chinese exchanges, how might you counter that? kris: we have a completely different strategy. we are building this business to last decades. from day one we have followed very stringent rules regarding anti-money laundering. this is our way of building this business and we believe if the market is supposed to reach one billion people have to be sound. we want to be the trusted place for people to interact with cryptocurrency. our strategy does not change. some of our competitors that pursued aggressive tactics are now in hot water and we are perfectly positioned to take advantage of that. haslinda: given your expansion
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plans and long-term plans as well, what are your hiring plans on the back of that, and which markets are likely to drive growth? kris: right. we are hiring right now very thoughtfully and strategically print we have a couple hundred openings in the company. outside of customer service to meet demand and increased traffic we are doing so very thoughtfully and strategically. again, we want to make sure that we remain very nimble, fast-moving company in this rapidly developing space so we can capture all the opportunities. we don't want to be a very large slow-moving corporate. that is just not how we want to build the company. haslinda: any plans for spot sponsorship?
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kris: those are great properties and great partners. i think we have already established ourselves as a globally recognized brand. we will be very selective moving forward. not all of these partnerships move the needle. we want to make sure whatever we choose to do is true for us and what we stand for as a brand. haslinda: kris marszalek, cofounder and ceo of crypto.com. now of course we have a strong dollar environment and on the back of that the indian rupee has weakened to a record low. both at a five month high. 14 day rsi back above 70 for the first time since october. not surprising asian currencies are under a lot of pressure. the indian rupee weakening to a
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record low versus the u.s. dollar. let's get more on the weakness we are seeing across asian fx. mark cudmore joins us now. not surprising. mark: this is really a dollars story. it is important to get that headline. the rupee is at a five month high against almost every g10 currency. even on that screen we just showed it has gone through a350. the rupee is down .1% down against the dollar when the dollar is strengthening massively. the rupee is still going to be a relative outperformer in asia. we have had recent good economic data. trade deficit data came through that is strong. it is world leading growth. generally a good story. i am still on a relative basis bullish the rupee. haslinda: but it is not just
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about the rupee, it is about emerging-market currencies. breaching 16,000 a bank indonesia to intervene. that weakness in the emerging market currencies will persist. yuan case in point as well. mark: absolutely they will persist. first, strong dollar and higher u.s. yields is not generally good for emerging markets. yuan theyuan policy is important. we see the pboc has allowed more weakness. that means a shift lower in asian currencies in particular. so yes this is a tough environment for emfx but i think these currencies like the rupee, where the central banks are acting to defend them, they will be relative outperformer is in such a world. the same with the yuan because they are lower volatility currencies. on a relative basis these are still quite good currencies.
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i prefer the rupee but i am happy on that regard. haslinda: we are waiting for intervention in terms of the yen. we are talking 15155 and now it is 160. mark: i just don't see intervention happening anytime soon. if we are at 160 tomorrow we are going to be intervening. i don't think it is quite the level. in this dynamic where yields in the u.s. are likely to keep on going higher, i don't see the fed being able to cut this year. we are still pricing in almost two cuts from the fed. that has to be a crisis coming through. unless that comes through in the u.s. the fed will not be cutting and dollar-yen will go higher. the nof will intervene on instruction of the boj to slow the overall gain in dollar-yen good essentially if they whack dollar-yen down traders are going to be going great, better levels to sell the yen again.
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you have that slight volatility that is not great because they will intervene. do not worry about levels. we could go much higher in dollar-yen if we go there gradually. haslinda: what is the biggest rate for the fx base? is this still about the fed and when it begins to cut, and how many cuts this year? mark: the biggest worry is where is the volatility. it has been a bit boring at the moment. i am not missing not being fx. fx volatility will return. we are starting to see a pickup in fx volatility and that were process. i do not think the fed will cut this year. until we get with that program i think the dollar will stay strong. i think ultimately when we realize the fed is not going to cut it is not a dollar strong world. haslinda: no cuts this year? mark: i have been there for a month. i think we are in a no landing world. ever since the fed ramped up the
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economy by giving an extremely dovish message at a time when they are saying we want to cut even when the economy is strong. that was basically saying we are in a no landing market. haslinda: ouch. mark cudmore saying no lending, no rate cut this year. still to come, we discussed the key issues at stake in india's general elections with only a few days to go before the first ballots are cast. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haslinda: india kicking office trading day under rascher along with the rest of the region. the nifty index under pressure, down .7% each. the indian rupee at a record low versus the usd, 83.53 is the level we are looking at. the world's most extensive -- political funding through electoral bonds was scrapped by
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india's top court but promised -- prime minister narendra modi defending the move. he is accused of using it to raise funds. let's discuss this with arati jerath. your thoughts on those bonds. arati: there has been a long demand from opposition parties for transparency on the bonds. the main grouse being donors are anonymous. in the public has no idea who donated what to which party. now that the genie is out and they are beginning to connect the dots, the picture emerging is quite disturbing for the ruling party. there seems to be a rather quid pro quo between the companies
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that purchase the bonds and the political party they donated the bonds to. mainly, the ruling party. this is obviously raising a lot of questions about the whole purpose of the bonds in india. the bonds were supposed to bring transparency into the funding process but it has become much more opaque after this whole bonds business started. so of course i don't know how much of an election issue this will be. all these revelations have come just on the people of the elections. the public has not really had time to digest the kind of information coming up. the information is coming out very slowly. haslinda: if you were to hazard a guess, do you think the bond issue may impact narendra modi's
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popularity in any way? arati: i am sorry, i did not hear you. haslinda: do you think the bond issue, which has raised a lot of questions, might impact modi's and bjp's popularity in any way? arati: no, that is exactly what i said. i don't think it will become an election issues because the revelations have come much too late. this happened just on the eve of the vote. information is coming out in drips and your abs. i don't think the voting public has had time to really digest the kind of information that is coming out. to get the picture really. so i do not think it will impact elections in any way. but just in terms of a system that was put in place as
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transparency, it just made the process much more opaque. haslinda: what is shaping this election? we know that bjp and modi i've been campaigning on the economy. arati: there was a survey done by one of the most respected surveyors in india very recently which found that for most people , inflation and unemployment are the two key issues worrying them. and these two issues, although they figure in every election, they have never figured as strongly as they are. so i think the way the economy is seems to be the key issue.
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they were hoping -- that that would become the main driving force behind the election. unfortunately that seems to have petered out. they have not been able to maintain that momentum. and stress on the ground is really what seems to be the thing now. haslinda: you say the bjp have lost momentum. candidate get the 370 seats it is targeting? what does it need to do to get there? arati: they not only have to hold on to all of the seats that they want, which last time they virtually swept. they will have to hang onto that and also make huge inroads into south india and east india,
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which to me looks like a very difficult proposition. the south has its own dynamics in the bjp's attempt to push this as their main agenda does not seem to be working very well in the south. and recently as you know the governors won to big -- two big state elections in the south. it seems to have revived itself in the south in the bjp is making a very big push but it will be very difficult. so although it may get a majority come i think this whole thing of 370 plus, 400 plus that have been talking about, that seems to be a very tricky proposition. haslinda: thank you so much for your insights. arati jerath, author, political
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haslinda: it is risk off in asia. asset classes pretty much across the board getting sold off on
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the back of the better-than-expected data out of the u.s. inflation remains persistent, resilient. the index down more than 2% right now at session lows come on track for the worst day in a year. of course we are tracking treasury yields on the back of the 10 year yields at a new high year-to-date. two-year yields flooding with 5%, touching 4.99. higher yields sending stocks here in asia. it is also about data out of china, which has been pretty weak. it is mixed in terms of gdp coming in better-than-expected but retail sales as well as industrial production disappointing. the yuan weakness persisting as well. the pboc surprising with a loosening of its grip i weakening the fix at the lowest level in about a month. some suggestion the pboc finally bowing to reality. take a look at that.
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it is read across the board. most benchmarks are down about 2% across asia and in the foreign space is that strong dollar story which already had bank of indonesia intervening after the rupiah slumped in excess of 16,000 for the first time since august 2020. the won down about 1% along with the sing dollar also showing weakness. take a look at where we are in terms of bond yields surging in asia. pretty much the same story as what we saw in terms of treasuries overnight. that is it from bloomberg markets: asia. daybreak middle east and africa is next. keep it here with us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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