>> here are the toss toys that we are following. all about margins this earnings season. we will chat about the outlook for big tech to luxury as stocks continue to wobble. the focus on ships. under pressure after result showed ongoing weakness in smartphones and pcs. micron said to get money in grants from the chip stack. and following the insurance brokers beat. the ceo will join in just a bit.

i am katie greifeld in new york. take a look at markets at the moment. it is an interesting but quiet day in market. slightly higher. i emphasize slightly. about .1%. the nasdaq 100 currently off to the tune of .2%. take a look at small caps. currently at about .2%. we will see how long that can hold. the chipmaker delivering a better-than-expected revenue outlook on a high demand from expecting it to grow this quarter. and love though joins us with the details. take a look at what is going on

with smartphones and pcs. ed: down more than 5%. there were a lot of notable milestones that make us think. to explain that basically, they actually manufacture this my conductors. 50% revenue growth. you are right about the topline growth overall. the most in over a year. the market really seizes on that number. when they saving are going to commit to this, it gives you confidence that they see markets that are growing. the downside is that there is the weakness. it is a pocket where we are still seeing slow growth. even if aia is fantastical. katie: that is what is interesting here.

ai saying that they are expecting to see a growth tailwind, but it is the smartphones and the pcs managing to overshadow ai. ed: nvidia is the market leader for high-powered cpus or accelerators. they use the latest in cutting edge technology, but apple is also a big chunk of the revenue, depending on any given quarter. it is because of the footprint of the iphone. that is where the weakness is right now. there is a holistic view of semi markets that you have to take. overall, this is a market where growth will not be as good as we

thought. katie: we appreciate the context as always. take with us now. lead equity analyst. delighted to have you with us. this line catches my eye, that this earnings season is all about margin. how are you expecting that to fair? >> fundamentally, but we know is that there is a huge correlation with what margins do. for me, i think as much as there is a great deal to be excited about as we head into the earnings season, i do not think the margin pressures -- i think margins are going to be under a lot more pressure than is being priced in. the amount of money that needs

to be spent in order to get ai propositions off the ground and into something tangible is not being priced in. big tech names have absolutely a lot of reliance on more traditional revenue flows. getting it bearable cost a lot of money. we have a lot of consumer weakness. katie: i'm glad that you say that because i have been saying for a while that it sounds like a story -- and actually starts. we have talked about relation to tech and ai but when the focus is on margins in the benchmark, what might that look like? >> sure. this is quite a broad spectrum.

as you say, on one side, tech could have some names with a little bit of trouble there. when louisiana all the way out and start looking at other sectors, i think that there is a lot of pain to come. you have been talking about it being more sticky than everybody -- anybody thought. they have actually stopped spending. what is left is drastic decision-making. i think that there is a great deal of challenge to traverse. i do not think we are through the worst of it yet. katie: we have reached the limits of pricing power. >> i exit -- i absolutely believe that.

luxury is actually performing pretty well. growth has slowed. people are ultimately by their clothing at these crazy price points. prices to video is really something that is causing a lot of headaches. it could get worse before it gets better. it feeds into the story and investing in cloud. they all feed into each other. katie: maybe some pain in the middle market. let's talk about the other end of the barbell. what is the mood music there? >> this is a really difficult one. we have absolute best in class,

successfully pumping up volumes and managing to keep their prices on the floor. because of that, i think that we could be seeing some consolidation coming through. as much as people are listening to me thinking that the retail numbers were better-than-expected -- they weren't, but they were still very sluggish. it tells me that they are very discerning. it is a scary place to be largely because your margins cannot stomach any level of disruption. some consolidation is possible. katie: it is interesting. you add it altogether and who are not necessarily looking at defensive.

encyclicals still look pretty good. >> we expect them to be a little more resilient. it bodes well as a whole. it is not something that should be ignored. they should be considering the cyclicals, but at the same time, i do not think now is the time to be completely a mooring the options either. a debate on the team. i think they should include defensive names at the moment. not the most exciting names. not the most exciting, but certainly worth attention. enough to cyclicals on the moment, certainly. katie: we will get into some single names, next. we will do that with emily.

morgan stanley with us with some tough words for ebay or the upset of that. >> they did have tough words yesterday. the most bearish analyst. the lowest on the street and now they have upped the price target to the bullish on wall street within ovary -- overweight meeting. it is all about ebay's embrace of generative ai. looking at some of the ai tools that has been rolled out, one of them is a tool where a seller can take a look at a listing and they will fill out the description of the actual listing. all they have to do is snap the photo and continue on with the

listing. they can look at items and get more tailored recommendations. if you like this, maybe you will like that. katie: it is only worth a 2% rally, but we will see how that rain plays out. talk to me about las vegas. >> it was declining by 9%. when you look at the top line earnings, it was not that bad. they exceeded profit expectations, but a lot of the revenue is from the macau regions, despite the name las vegas sands. we look at some of the property is adjusted. missed estimates coming in at $314 million versus 222. they also set on the call that the results would be further impacted by motivations. a number of downgrades.

this is a less bold call. katie: ok. some movement. looking at shares having their worst days since 2022. let's start with a good story. >> paring some earlier gains. revenue and sales expectations for the full fiscal year projecting deliveries to 91,000 homes, which was higher than earlier estimate. the previously owned homes, a lot of that is locked up.

it has actually been good for builders of new homes because of the supply that is now straight. katie: almost 50% last year. thank you so much. coming up, blackstone president and coo says interest rate will be coming down. our conversation with john gray, next. ♪ and so did our business needs. the chase ink card made it easy. when you go for something big like this, your kids see that. and they believe they can do the same. earn unlimited 1.5% cash back on every purchase

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katie: let's get back to the markets. sophie is the lead equity analyst. sophie, we are on the cuffs of

earnings season. when you look ahead to the future, to think there is any one name that is the bellwether of this market? >> there are a couple. i do not think we can ignore netflix. they are an important consumer in a big way. particularly netflix. the stickiness tells you that if it starts to taper, there is almost definitely pain further down the line. it is actually going to be microsoft. microsoft positions it tells in terms of ai and the monetization of ai. their outlook statement there, their performance in that sphere tells you and sets the bar for everyone else. if they are struggling, it tells

you that there is pain for others for sure. katie: as you point out, they report in a couple of hours. it is such an interesting business right now. and then there is netflix, the clear leader. how long do you think that headstart, that gap on the rest of the field will actually last? >> they definitely are the leader. they are definitely looking over their shoulder. that space is a lot more crowded with genuine competition than five or so years ago. within that, i think netflix remains best in class and they have the best tools in their toolkit to maintain that edge. they are actually ahead in terms of original content creation as well as the local productions.

i'm talking about production distribution lines that they have in other countries and local language content is actually huge. we know that massively helps with retention. they are fun of the pack when it comes to those sorts of productions. that is something that will take a while to catch up on, if they decide to do it at all because it is not a cheap undertaking. the cash flow situation could be interesting. we know that they pulled back on spending. how realistic is it? i think it could be a bit more, but fundamentally, they are best in class. that should maintain them. katie: a lot to look forward to. keep an eye out for that. one of the names and most interested in is probably meta-. they really does -- they really

surprised with cost cuts. really paid off for mark zuckerberg. can they continue that discipline? will that continue to pay dividends in terms of stock performance? >> the year of efficiency. how many years does that actually need to be? what happened last time is they had grand ideas but it spooked investors because the outlook, their plans were quite opaque. i do not actually think that investors are ready for them to revert to this high-octane but low detail metaverse, ai plan. what we could see as hopefully they have learned their lesson. a more measured, detailed plan

on how they might better capture the ai race because they are not as much of a pure play for that as some of the others. they are spending about $100 billion over all. we just need some finer details. it is a little bit opaque. investors do not respond to that in the current climate. katie: you touched on something that i have been wondering. do they risk falling behind in key areas? >> i think that is a risk that needs to be monitored. that advertising business is the absolute epitome of what they do. there is an element that they need to do what they are doing. i think they need to keep an eye on the future.

it does potentially mean that they could be left behind. katie: great conversation. we hope to check in with you as we get deeper into the earnings season. let's turn to the banking. john gray says he is optimistic. >> where we are in the cycle, it is picking up, as i noted before. we focus on deployment. a big pickup in terms of deployment the last couple of quarters. i think that will continue because we think there are attractive opportunities across a range of sectors. getting companies ready to sell, doing ipos, those things take a little bit of time. what you want to do is do it in

a deliberate fashion. i think you will steadily see it pick up, but it will take time and it will be more towards the end of the year into 2025. our investors are focused on maximizing returns. we think that is the right way to do it, to be deliberate in terms of realizations, but recovery and equity is an important early sign as we move towards that realization cycle, looking forward. katie: can you have significant m&a with the cycle staying this high, given the expectations have changed so much for may cuts to c-reactive -- for rate cuts this year? >> cost of capital has actually come down pretty materially from october highs. high-yield spreads have tightened. commercial mortgage spreads

probably 125 basis points. not only has the costs come down, the availability has gone up materially. that is an important first step. you are right, that as the fed cuts rates, it will be easier for people to do transactions. but even with rates at a more elevated level, you will see more transaction activity given the reduction in the cost of capital. katie: that was john gray and tsunami bassett. we will take a look at the companies making the most social buzz, up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does.

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katie: time for social climbers. first up we have the online insight match getting downgraded. fighting concerns over tender's saturation. they are not innovating enough to attract more users. younger daters are looking at snapchat and tiktok to make connections. netflix reporting after the closing bell today. expecting to report another strong quarter of suppressed -- of subscriber growth. and we have the restaurant chain tgi friday's planning to go public after merging with its u.k. franchise. headquarters will remain in dallas. you can follow all the latest on your bloomberg terminal. coming up, the stock popping after announcing earnings.

we will speak to john doyle, next. this is bloomberg. ♪ do you want to close out? should i? normally i'd hold. but... taking the gains is smart here, right? feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app. when you've got a decision to make... the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management.

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>> marsh mclennan out with strong first-quarter earnings. natalia is here with more. natalia: better-than-expected results, investors really like the earnings report. it's up by almost 4%. this is one of the world's largest insurance brokerage companies. it provides different areas of risk and strategy. we see they beat expectations and revenue came also above expectations. this chart shows revenue growth and we see for the first quarter it reached $6.4 billion.

at the same time we know adjusted operating margin came slightly below expectation. it was 32% analyst expected 32.2%. the numbers below expectations for both of its segments such as risk assurance services and consultant segments. overall investors really like those results and i think some analyst pointed out now when we so many risks in terms of geopolitics, economy, rising yields and volatility, companies like marshall mcclellan can do really well. katie: for more i'm thrilled to say weird joined by john doyle. joining me on set. i'm to read out some numbers. for the first quarter we are talking about adjusted eps of $2.89.

revenue coming in at $6.47 billion. the estimate had been four below that as well. beating across some key metrics. where did that strength come from, that surprise to the upside. >> i was very pleased with the start to the year both topline and bottom-line. you mention some of the high-level data. to me the strength was across-the-board and we had excellent growth in our consulting businesses when some others have been reporting challenges on the risk side of her business demand is quite strong. while the macro environment has agreed -- a degree of uncertainty and complexity to it , right now it is driving strong demand for our services. >> if you were looking for something to pick at you could point to adjusted operating margins at 32% just below the estimate, you really have the long history expansion.

can you explain what levers you have to pull right now when it comes to margins as we were talking with our first guest, margins of the focus for the earnings season. >> i think our growth exceeded expectations as well. we are very proud of our track record 16 consecutive years of margin expansion. we've got into further margin expansion in 2024. we had a bit of a slower start to the year, some year-over-year headwinds but we expect margin expansion to build. it will be another good year of solid margin expansion. can you go into what potential levers you do have. when it comes to a retailer for example i thing everyone knows so you can boost margins there but when it comes to your business, insurance brokerage what can you do? >> we have ongoing workflow and information efforts in each of our four businesses, we are also looking for value and creating

efficiencies at the intersections of our businesses as well so those are important levers for us. we are leaning in and experimenting in a big way around ai and that's more down the road and expect the impact maybe not even 20 but those are all levers for us so we see a fair amount of opportunity. >> you brought up ai so we have to talk about ai. how do you see ai fitting in to the portfolio. >> we've used various ai tools for a number of years and candidly with mixed levels of success we probably had more success in context around the world with prior evolutions of technology and then we have some other experimentation around data ingestion, policy review as you might expect. but we are quite excited about the possibilities around the large line with models. with greater safe environment inside of the company to test and protect data and our

colleagues are excited about it. we have 50,000 colleagues testing ai we encourage them to test. we are aligning around a number of use cases that have some level of potential to scale. i'm reasonably certain he will make us faster. i've got a lot of optimism around what will make us more efficient. i think the bigger question ultimately is does it make us smarter. and we use these tools against our data sets and provide even better insights to our clients than we have in the past. >> it sounds a cure in early stages of a lot of those questions. do you have thoughts about time frames over what timeline this could be a benefit to you. >> it's a great question, i don't expected to deliver much value to shareholders in 2024. i think we are a couple years out of use cases that will drive meaningful value. >> i want to talk of the stock performance. i was taking a look at your stock over the past five years

and was shocked to see was up and really your entire group has performed really solidly, outperforming the s&p 500 over the timeframe as you can see on the chart there. how confident are you the group as a whole continues to outperform or would you use this opportunity to maybe set expectations? >> because of that track record expectations are high and makes today particularly pleasing. we got off to such a terrific start to the year. we are resilient business and fundamental to the economy. probably a little underappreciated in terms of how important we are to economic stability and growth and really around the world. we have got a track record across cycles. we've seen some downtimes and the economic challenges connected to the pandemic is a recent example. but we have an operating model and a lot of confidence. today is with the macro risk

issues, geopolitical risk, economic related risk, technology including cyber. climate, adjust the frequency and severity of climate events. all driving challenges for our clients. what i would say to you is coming out of the pandemic and maybe with two wars happening in the world and some of the supply chain stress that we've been living through over the course of the last seven years, clients are more risk aware than they have been in the past and are trying to find a better balance between efficiency and resilience and that's leading to greater demand. katie: what do you think is at the top of the list right now because you list it off a whole bunch of concerns. john: i heard of the wall of worry line and i think that's quite apt. but in my conversations with

ceos and talking to our colleagues who are in front of our clients all day long it is geopolitical risk. there's some major geopolitical risk and on that list of the worries, those are all risks that businesses have been confronting for a long time. but they are all at an elevated level and so that leads to a complexity at this moment that i think sets it apart. >> i do want to talk a little bit about m&a because there was recently a large acquisition in the middle-market brokerage space. marsh agency's or middle-market business. you completed some acquisitions there as well. you see more m & a in the future. john: it's been an important value creator for us. we built a platform for 15 years. we stitched together the best regional agencies across the united states and so we are very excited about our position in the u.s. and more broadly around

the world. we can bring scale benefits to that segment of the market and we have protect us businesses that will continue to be a focus for us. >> i know it's a busy day on your end so appreciated taking the time. we are about one hour into the u.s. trading day so let's get a check on these markets. we will do that with bloomberg's abigail doolittle. >> we are seeing something we haven't seen too much this week which is we have the opening higher and then the dip lower but we are actually higher so we may not look at the bearish reversal. this is the nasdaq 100 up about 2/10 of 1% after taking that depth. let's see whether the bulls can hang on. into today there has been some gain especially for the s&p 500 into today the index had been down for days in a row. going to the bloomberg terminal we can look at this and here is that day, the worst stretch all

the way back to the very beginning of january what's important about this is we have the s&p 500 one-year uptrend snapping so the bulls are no longer control, the dip buyers are not out despite the small gains so it's interesting to see how much more the selling has to go and probably having a lot to do with rates, the two year yield near 5%, less liquidity coming into the market and the quiddity potentially coming out. beneath the hood today we had some big winners and losers on the upside, they put up a great quarter, the guidance is strong and with existing home sales not a lot of supply up there. even with rates high meta-platforms up 2.9%. they saw a reaffirmation or upgrade for one of the debt servicing companies. one of the ratings companies talking about their strong execution. tesla a lot of pain it once again down 2.7%.

the worst day in more than a year and they beat on the surface top and bottom line adjusted earnings when 5% better. 63% of their business uncertainty for china, waiting on the outlook plus they may need to renovate and that will wait on -- way on profits. now in a bear market over the last year. katie: coming up, inflation trending in the right direction in europe but the geopolitical tensions could threaten the economic progress. paschal donohoe joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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katie: time now for our daily wall street week conversation and the global economy is poised for a year of steady growth but the imf warns of headwinds for europe probably because of two regional wars. paschal donohoe joins us from the world bank meetings in washington along with wall street weeks david westin. a great conversation to kick off the spring meetings. david: a lot of fiscal demands but also over in europe. thank you for being with us prayed we heard from the imf warning the united states for off-line money how much fiscal money does your euro group collection of countries have. do they have demands in ukraine to try and help, we also have the climate change. how much is there to address some of these issues? >> there is some but the truth

of it is there needs to be more. and we has governments in the european union faced many challenges of needing to normalize policy but at the same time we need to find funding to make our economy screener and our country safer. that's why they're such work underway now within the european union regarding the future of the markets. and as we speak all of the prime minister's of the european union are meeting each other to find ways in which we can accelerate progress in that project to look at how we can make better use of the private savings in europe as we begin to normalize budget policy to invest into different priorities. katie: part of the conversation is large borrowing when it comes to defense and when it comes to ukraine. i do want to talk a little bit about defense because him curious what you make of financing europe's ramp-up, its

military capabilities with new commentary. >> there's a debate with regards it's fair to say at the moment that consensus is not yet been achieved regarding that discussion. but i don't think we should lose sight the rest of europe is already making and has made with regard to supporting the people of ukraine, the funding that's been made available at the moment prayed the 50 billion euro package that's been agreed within the european union to support ukraine across the medium-term. and even changes underway regarding the potential role of the european investment bank of the future, what role they can play in responding back to the defense and the investment needs that are there. so the discussion is underway but much has already been achieved regarding how we can support the people, the economy and the security of ukraine. david: you talk about the need

to tap in, do you have a price tag or a target of the sort of funds you think you are going to need over the medium-term for the two priorities you identified? paschal: there is a range of different prices and the only thing they have in common is they are measured in the many hundreds of billions of euros per year. the progress we have made in trying to respond back to the needs we are discussing is the creation of the next generation eu budget which, for many of the larger economies within the european union is worth hundreds of billions of euros over a number of years that's been funded by new forms that's looking to invest into a greener and more digital future for the european union. there is still a funding gap and that is why what we have done within the european union is try to agree a budget framework for the years ahead that prioritizes

capital investment and prioritizes spending in those areas so that year we can reduce that gap and get growth outlook up as we are getting inflation down. >> i would love to get more specific on the countries within the region. let's talk about france and italy and their fiscal situations. are you concerned about their debt and deficit levels? paschal: i have absolute confidence in the ability of those countries to manage their public finances in the covid era, we had a need to move higher levels of borrowing to tolerate a higher level of share of national income. those economies led by the minister are butting and implementing plans needed to now reduce borrowing, stabilize public debts as a share of national income and get it to a point that it will fall over time. so the euro area and the members

of the euro area have a finance profile that's -- that i'm confident we can support and back and managed carefully. >> you mentioned growth and trying to make sure we get our arms around inflation. right now it's perceived at least that europe may be lagging a bit behind in terms of competitiveness and growth. what can the countries do there physically they can spur that growth for the longer term? 0 i think -- paschal: i think it's a fair critique. we have been successful in getting inflation down if you look at the growth outlook we have for this year it's probably going to re-around 0.8%. so much of that unfortunately is explained by the economic effects of the war on the people of ukraine. we need to look at how we need to improve that growth outlook. i would pick up to particular

priorities, the implementation of the eu budget that i referred to a moment ago. and is looking to provide new forms of funding in return for structural change within economies funded by new forms of debt. the implementation of that in the years ahead is a really big priority but we are looking at. and then secondly on a national level we are trying to get that balance right between reducing current expenditure as the economic conditions allow us to do but prioritizing capital investment and investing in those projects that can help europe in the years ahead. that is very much a national balancing act that the finance minister colleagues at the moment are working on. for implementing an 2024 but thinking ahead 2025. katie: let's talk about new forms of debt and what form that

might take. we were talking before the segment about the concept of the eurobond and forgive me if this is a silly question but there is a common currency. is there something in the debt market that is similar to the euro, has that actually all come to fruition yet and if so if it has why isn't it as ubiquitous as the euro. >> 80's very much under way in terms of new forms of debt and again going back to the discussion we've had regarding the european union budget we now have the european union as an issuer of debt to fund many of these plans that are underway. we need to continue to do with built-up confidence in that is a form it's been really well received by the markets already. in terms of your point regarding the gap between our currency and the forms of that -- forms of

debt, we had a euro this been around for a number of decades that's very well established as a global reserve currency. these new forms of debt have really open -- only happened and the european union wants to make the debt that we've already issued a success and as i've said there's a big debate underway, not yet an agreement regarding playing a different role in the future. >> the euro currency is much more mature than the eurobond, really enjoyed this conversation. our thanks to paschal donohoe. who else do we have coming up? david: we have steve ratner at 6:00 p.m., he's in charge of president obama's task force we will also talk with a member of the task force. all about the wake of tesla's cutbacks. >> are big thanks to wall street we coast david westin.

this is bloomberg. ♪ you know what's brilliant? boring. think about it. boring is the unsung catalyst for bold. what straps bold to a rocket and hurtles it into space? boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years, pnc bank has been brilliantly boring so you can be happily fulfilled... which is pretty un-boring

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>> let's take a look at some stocks hitting lows and today we only have one and its name is tesla hitting a 52-week low. elon musk apologizing in email to employees that severance packages for recently laid off employees were too low. tesla announced it would/global headcount by more than 10% as insurers 40% year-to-date. a broader look at the markets right now there is a bit of green on the screen. the s&p 500 up by 6/10 of a percent. if that holds it will be coming after four straight days of losses so it's been a rough run for the s&p 500. the nasdaq 100 hanging onto gains there. currently up, bloomberg

technology coming up next but that does it for bloomberg markets. i'm katie greifeld and this is bloomberg. ♪

>> from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and ballon -- beyond this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde ed ludlow. caroline: i'm caroline hyde at bloomberg's world headquarters ed: i'm ed ludlow in san francisco. caroline: we will break down tsmc's first-quarter earnings report as the company scales up profit but scales back its outlook for ship market expansion. >> google fires 28 employees after they were involved in protests against project nimbus