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tom: good morning, this is "bloomberg daybreak europe," i'm tom mackenzie in london. asian equities getting after softer than expected u.s. jobs data revives bets the fed will cut rates this year. the israeli military asked some civilians in rafah to move out of the city as preparations for a ground invasion move forward, after israel closed a humanitarian crossing into gaza following a,'s rocket attack. xi jinping touches down in paris to begin a three nation european tour, as french president emmanuel macron seeks to reset ties with beijing. let's check on these markets. u.s. stocks ending last week higher with gains coming through friday. the nasdaq up more than 2%, the s&p adding gains of a little over 1%, another big week in terms of the central bank story. the bank of england and their decision on thursday. before that, the rba of

australia coming through with their decision tuesday. earnings in focus with disney out of the u.s., ubs out of switzerland tomorrow. european futures in the current phase of this morning pointing higher 0.3%. there is a bank holiday in the u.k., so trading, but if you strip out the ftse 100. the gain stateside, the relief coming through from what looks like a slightly softer jobs market in the u.s. the print well below estimates, gains of 0.1% flagged by the s&p after upside of plus 1% by the end of close friday. let's flip the board and look cross assets at currencies with a focus on the bloomberg dollar index, but also what is happening in oil markets given the geopolitics. the blooper dollar index gaining 0.1% in the session. the pound in focus as we lead up to that bank of england decision. we have heard relatively dovish comments from the bank of england governor andrew bailey.

will that be reiterated thursday? 1.25 on the pound. oil prices edging higher zero point 3%. we keep across the lines from the middle east, 83.20 three on brent freight iron ore getting a lift on additional support measures being flagged by officials in china. that is boosting the property sector but giving aid to expectations that there is demand for more iron ore, up 1.4%. we will look at the mining space later in the session. let's cross over to asia where ever longest any by in singapore. what is standing out to you? >> a couple of themes here. one of them is the extent to which mainland markets are catching up with their hong kong counterparts, after returning from the long holiday, but also, the reaction in the asian markets to softer than expected u.s. payrolls. we are seeing markets in the region mostly positive, but the csi 300 has been in focus, for

climbed as much as 1.8%, but it is not as pronounced a move considering how hong kong stocks fared last week. the hang seng's rally is taking a breather, this is all in reaction to what we got from that politburo meeting, those pro-growth signals that policymakers are trying to find new ways to fix the housing crisis. that is seen as a tailwind. let's flip the board because something else to consider amid all this, as chinese stocks get too cheap to ignore, and corporate earnings have been resilient, is that msci china specifically, the equities risk premium has widened a fair bit compared to other asian peers. making the bull case more compelling for chinese equities. flip the board again. i want to zoom in on that recovery on the dollar-china, as its move away from the levels of last week. this is the first chance for

onshore yuan to react up the long holiday -- after the long holiday. it has binge trailing compared to what we see from the fed. a lot of it has to do with what we see on dollar-yen. dollar china hovering back towards the 7.22 level with yield differentials between the u.s. and japan in focus as well. tom: april with a check on the markets and the catch-up coming through for chinese stocks too cheap to ignore. let's check back in on the geopolitics. the redhead that crossed on in the last few minutes, israeli military has asked some civilians in rafah to move out of the city. we know, and we have listened in to netanyahu of israel, who has suggested they remained determined to clear out that city because of the hamas battalions that continue to shelter there. there are of course hundreds of thousands of civilians within that city.

israel has said it will enable the evacuation of civilians. critics suggested that will be challenging. the talks within the context of ceasefire talks that have continued over the weekend, but we know have stalled. let's get the details with paul wallace in dubai. israel's military is asking civilians in rafah to move out of that city. >> hi, tom, it is significant and could well be the prelude to an offensive on the city that israel promised for months. it always said this would be the first step. that civilians would be moved out before any attack on the city. we have little idea how long this process will take. there is some debate within the israeli government and military. back in february, there was optimism among the israelis that it could be a short process, a matter of days, before the bulk

of the roughly 1.4 million civilians in the city are moved out safely. more recently however, they have extended that time frame and a lot of israelis admit at least on private, that it would take much longer. perhaps up to a month. we have to wait for more details from the idf on exactly what they are doing in the coming days. but certainly, this is the first time they have announced any sort of evacuation of civilians from the city of rafah. tom: this following those talks around potential ceasefire taking place over the weekend in cairo. paul, what is the latest in terms of those conversations, and how do we think about how that ties in to those negotiations? >> as you mentioned at the start

of this clip, those talks look like they have stalled. they didn't make much progress in cairo. the big obstacle was hamas' demand that any truce is effectively permanent and ends the war. israel says that cannot be the case under any circumstances because there are still formal military structures of hamas in the city of rafah, which is why israel and prime minister netanyahu are so focused on the city. they say even if there is a truce, that the war must continue until those roughly 5-10,000 hamas fighters are destroyed as military units. it is quite telling that the idf announced of evacuation today. it suggests that the talks really didn't go well in cairo. there was a deadly rocket barrage by hamas yesterday on

the border crossing between israel and gaza, that killed three idf soldiers. that is the worst rocket attack for some time from hamas. everything the passport of ours points to -- the past 24 hours points to the trees talks not progressing. tom: a story we continue to monitor. asian stocks are rising on revived bets that the federal reserve will cut rates this year. mark cranfield joins me now with the latest. what was the cross asset message from what we got through in terms of the jobs data come the softer print on friday? >> it was pretty much a goldilocks event as far as risk assets are concerned. treasuries will be relieved that the number wasn't so high that it questions the idea that there could be another rate hike this year.

it has completely taken that off the table. jerome powell already said during the fomc that he was not expecting higher rates, and that looks like the case is definitively now, after the u.s. jobs number, so treasury bonds heavy with it. equities are pleased because the u.s. economy is coming along nicely, jobs are being created but not too many, so it is not overheating. in terms of the u.s. dollar, because treasury yields came down slightly, that helps the u.s. dollar. all in all, it was a near perfect scenario. you see a continuation of the good mood going on in asia today. in terms of thinking this sets the stage for early rate cuts in america, people need to back off a bit from that. it really is not the case at all. there is a long way to go. and the inflation path of the story hasn't changed yet. we are still talking about 3.9% unemployed, which is a number which usually the fed would

never lower interest rates in such a strong employment situation, so it needs the inflation date of the next three months to come down quite quickly, otherwise the fed will be looking at the fourth quarter for their first rate cut. tom: a will deluxe report, but maybe -- goldilocks report but maybe markets getting ahead of themselves about the prospect of cuts. presumably there is relief to those sitting within tokyo within the ministry of finance and bank of japan, the risks around intervention arguably still in the cards, 153 currently on the japanese yen, how does that tie into the intervention story? >> here we are, a week after dollar-yen touched 160. we have made progress, the end is stronger, but not overwhelmingly. markets won't sit back and say that is the end of the story. the yen is a clear case of appreciation all the way from here. it is nothing like october 2022, when two weeks after the big

round of intervention, everybody sat back and said we will never shortly yen ever again. you can see in the data on friday from the cfd, the short positions are still very large, it's only a snapshot of the overall market. but clearly leverage traders are not giving up on the idea but the japanese yen is still the best carry trade in the market. the reason of course is the bank of japan. the bank of japan still needs to come through with a much more aggressive tightening of interest-rate policy to raise rates by 10 basis points, and then look as though the job is done, really not going to convince foreign exchange traders for very long. we need to hear a lot more from the bank of japan in terms of what they will do in the months ahead. otherwise, we will be talking about dollar-yen being much higher within a couple of weeks. tom: mliv strategist mark cranfield, breaking down the implications of the jobs data out of the u.s., 175, below the

estimates and with that eye on the intervention question around the japanese yen. breaking lines around the i.t. company that is central to france that struggles with its debt woes, this coming through from atos, getting an offer from bondholders bain, kretinsky and onepoint part of restructuring proposals for atos as part of the current conciliation process. the new proposals around the debt were presented to atos' board of directors on may the fifth, yesterday, it included a or per and banks from the company's banking groups and the company says it will not pursue talks with bain capital, but it did sign an agreement around 100 million euros in terms of interim financing with bondholders. there is an agreement on a financial restructuring solution that apparently is acceptable to creditors targeted for may the 31st. a few more details as atos

attempts to get some clarity in terms of its debt and liabilities. again, getting offers from creditors. it is a big earnings week once again with the focus on disney in the u.s., but there is one in europe will be ubs, those earnings coming out tuesday. the details, as we continue to watch the integration of credit suisse, and how ubs is navigating that. on thursday the central bank, after the rv out tuesday, it is all about the bank of england. that decision coming out thursday with a monetary policy report as well. will they go in line with the ecb with a focus on june, or hold slightly longer? we have heard slightly dovish comments from andrew bailey. friday we get k first quarter gdp. expected to show we are out of the recession. that data out on friday out of the u.k. china's xi jinping touches down in paris for his first eu trip

in five years. we look at what he is aiming to achieve. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak europe."

chinese president xi jinping is in paris as he kicks off a three nation trip to europe, his first visit in five years is aimed at stabilizing ties in the face of mounting trade tensions. let's get more from caroline connan standing by in paris. what does the french president hope to achieve? >> for president emmanuel macron, it is clearly a charm offensive today and tomorrow in paris, and the southwest of france. last year, remember, macron also went to china for a state visit. that was seen as a way to counter the u.s. on the international stage. it is macron's turn to be the same. there will be the official part of the trip with a military parade today and a state dinner at the elysees palace. last year xi took macron to the

province where his father used to be the ceremony of tea, there will be a similar personal touch, tomorrow macron is taking him to where he used to go as a child. there is reciprocity in the symbols, but also politically, as there has been a lot of trade tensions between the eu and china. macron called over the weekend in a long interview about a reset of economic ties with china. he can't go all alone. he has to give a european dimension to the trip. this morning, the president of the eu commission ursula von der leyen, will be in paris for a trilateral meeting with president xi. tom: so, rich in symbolism as you say, but in terms of trade, slightly frameworked by brussels and broader europe. how is that conversation likely

to evolve between these two partners within that context? >> going on a charm offensive does not mean you cannot carry firm message. that is what macron intends to do. in fact, france has been specifically hurt by the recent chinese probe into cognac makers, which is directly targeting paris given france represents 99% of the cognac market. as you mentioned, there is a lot of eu probes into chinese ev makers, that's also impacting competition with the likes of stellantis and renault, which are also trying to break into the ev car market in europe. and more recently, into the procurement for medical devices in china. so a lot of probes into all these chinese companies. four president xi, the goal of

this trip is to avert any new tariffs, any restrictions of access to the european market. there are thousands, even tens of thousands of chinese ev's waiting in belgian ports to be sold into the european markets. that will be very high on the agenda for those discussions. macron's approaches different to olaf scholz, the german chancellor who visited china last month, he has been much more pragmatic. he said over the weekend that whether it is for climate, for safety, we need the chinese. tom: caroline connan in paris, following xi jinping's visit to the country. three days in france before moving on to hungary and serbia. bloomberg learned that cicc is planning to demote some of its senior bankers and cut their

pay. the move could lead to voluntary departures from one of china's largest investment banks. sources say cicc told staff that some individuals can lose managing director titles and be relegated to lower ranks under a new performance rating system. cicc has been slashing bonuses the past three years amid a slump in dealmaking. it was once referred to as the goldman sachs of china. liv gulf ceo greg norman says the rebel league isn't going away, as talks about a possible merger with pga drag on. more from our exclusive interview next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: i'll come back to "bloomberg daybreak europe."

liv golf ceo greg norman says the rebel league will continue expanding, as questions remained over a potential merger with the pga. he spoke with haslinda amin on the sidelines of the liv golf tournaments in singapore. >> you talked about access to the game. there needs to be streaming and distribution channels. how are you looking at that? what exactly are you looking at. >> yeah, absolutely we are. >> give us a sense of who you are in talks with in terms of distribution and streaming. some have suggested people are not really tuning in and watching liv. >> what the definition of tuning in? turning in channel 44 and saying i will watch the next four and a half hours is tuning in. to an 18 or 25-year-old, tuning in maybe 12 seconds on the

phone, let me look at that, then another 14 seconds on this. that to me is tuning in. that is a market that is normatively wealthy, right, and enormously influential in the direction where we are going. we are talking to corporations, i'm not going to give you the names of course, but we just did a great partnership with google. >> there is a great divide in protocol, pga and liv, negotiations are ongoing. it is a decision imminent? how are you looking at it, is it important that there is a merger or not? >> i'm just going to answer the ceo of liv. my boss told me liv is not going to go anywhere. it will be well and truly an operation running well past his death. he is a young guy. he has asked me to stay focused

and deliver liv. liv is a standalone entity, we have invested billions in this, and we are starting to see the creation of an roi in this. so we are going to stay focused. tom: liv golf ceo greg norman. for the exclusive interview on liv golf's plans, it will run in the next edition of latitude with haslinda amin in june. a prospective buyer of everton football club has been accused of fraud. the miami firm bar against assets it didn't own didn't exist, or were already promised to someone else. the fund has been thrust into the spotlight as after it move to take over everton last year. an inquiry has been set up into 777's funding. the league signal it will prove the deal subject to conditions. 777 has been approached for

comment. heading for $200 billion, berkshire hathaway's cash pile hits another record high. the highlights from the annual meeting of warren buffett's conglomerate, his use on apple, paramount, and optimism around prospects in india. all that to unpack from berkshire hathaway coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ you're probably not easily persuaded to switch mobile providers for your business. but what if we told you it's possible that comcast business mobile can save you up to 75% a year on your wireless bill versus the big three carriers? you can get two unlimited lines for just $30 each a month. all on the most reliable 5g mobile network—nationwide. wireless that works for you. for a limited time, ask how

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tom: good morning, this is

"bloomberg daybreak europe," i'm tom mackenzie in london. asian equities gaining after softer than expected u.s. jobs data revives bets the fed will cut rates this year. the israeli military is reported to have started moving civilians out of rafah, as preparation for a ground invasion moves forward. this after israel closed a humanitarian crossing into gaza following a barrage of rockets fired by hamas. xi jinping touches down in paris to begin a three nation european tour, as french president emmanuel macron seeks to reset ties with beijing. let's check on these markets. investors continue to to digest the jobs data in the u.s. softer than expected print of 175,000 mobile of the estimates, unemployment ticking up to 3.9%, and average hourly earnings

below the estimates, that is crucial in terms of considering where the fed goes next. so repricing and currently the expectation that the fed could go twice in terms of cuts this year. european futures pointing to gains of 0.2%, for the week they closed lower last week. u.s. futures currently flat, last week they added gains, but still around a little over 2%, below records in march for the s&p but it was solid on friday. mastic futures down 0.3% after gains of around 2% on friday. big week for the earnings story. ubs with the details tomorrow and disney out of the u.s. let's flip the board cross asset and focus on the u.s. dollar. the blue bird dollar index up 0.1%, the pound at one point tony five, big week for the bank of england. brent 83.31, up 0.4%, with a focus on what is emanating out of israel and gaza into ceasefire talks. iron ore up one point 5%, that

being linked to comments from chinese officials around additional support for the property sector. geopolitics is in the lines for us again today on these reports that israel has started to move civilians out of that city of rafah, where we know well over a million civilians are sheltering. the shekel currently lower a full percent versus the u.s. dollar. the israeli currency moving sharply lower on the back of this news. it could be a prelude to that attack on rafah that the israeli government has been flagging on the x platform, the israeli defensive forces saying they will act with extreme force against terrorist organizations in areas of residence, addressing the civilians of rafah. the financial times is reporting that credit suisse ceo ulrich koerner will leave ubs on in the coming weeks, after the completion of the merger of the two former swiss rivals. ubs is working to complete the

integration of credit suisse by the end of this month. this was government last year orchestrated the ubs takeover of curtis weise as it was teacher in -- teetering on the edge of collapse. warren buffett praised apple after revealing he has cut his stake. he discloses moved during berkshire hathaway's annual meeting in omaha, the first since the death of charlie monger. >> we will have apple as our largest investment, but i don't mind at all under current conditions building on the cash position. when i look at the alternative of what's available in the equity markets, and the composition of what's going on in the world, we find it quite attractive. tom: for now, let's bring in our

deals reporter. there was some nice product placement with sees candy box. buffett a strong believer in this company but cutting his stake? >> you were discussing in the newsroom today. the holding was reduced by $40 billion. quite amazing. it still remains the largest investment by warren buffett. he is a strong believer in the company. he mentioned how the iphone may be one of the greatest inventions in history. he hinted that there were some tax implications. that he had already sold some shares in the fourth quarter already, so he has been reducing exposure, even though he remains

a firm believer in the company. he was mentioning how when he sees other alternatives, there isn't a clear alternative out there. apple has been faced by some challenges on its own, the shares are pretty muted so far this year. we saw the antitrust, the $2 billion antitrust fine slumping sales in china among other things. all in all, he remains a very large investment by warren buffett definitely. tom: you touched on this, the cash hoard, he flagged that it could hit $200 billion in the near future, what is buffett holding onto that much cash, is it lack of deals leading him to be risk-averse or him not wanting to pull the trigger? >> definitely, i think that was one of the main top picks of

discussion during the meeting over the weekend. it is fast approaching the $200 billion mark. a lot of cash in hand. you rightly pointed out there has been a dearth of sizable deals. he is well-known for doing big deals in the past. and we haven't seen a big one in a while there that's part of the reason, but given volatility in the stock market, geopolitics, inflation remaining high, and uncertainty around interest rates. i think all those uncertainties are leading to warren buffett holding that big amount of cash. it remains to be seen whether he will be able to deploy a big check into some m&a, but nothing for the time being, definitely. tom: manuel, thank you indeed. what we heard from warren buffett over the weekend.

chicago fed president also will be says the latest u.s. jobs report gives him comfort that the economy is not overheating, but when it comes to rate cuts, he says he needs to see more data confirming inflation is under control. >> 175,000 is a very solid report. some of the root of our frictions here might be, there is kind of a day trader's timetable and there is an economic timetable. for setting monetary policy, of course, you have to take a longer arc view on inflation and employment. we are trying to figure out after the excellent dual mandate performance of 2023, where inflation fell almost as much as it has fallen on record, and it did so without a recession. how much can we continue that into 2024?

we had a bump at the start of the year on the inflation front. now everybody has to take a step back and figure out is that a sign that the economy is overheating, or a sign of some other thing? the more jobs reports you get like this, where they are solid, but clearly moving back into something that looks like pretty covid and conventional times, the more confident we can be that the economy is not overheating. but we have got to watch this. >> i don't want to use the word dovish, but you were one of the more optimistic people about the possibility that rates could be cut this year. how do you feel now? the ism numbers show slowdowns. spending numbers were lower than anticipated and lower than in the last quarter. are we setting up to go back to the idea that rate cuts happen this year? >> i don't like committing tying

of our hands even for the next meeting, much less when it comes to the fall and going into next year. i will say, i was optimistic in 2023 that we could hit what i was calling the golden path. that there were reasons why in an unprecedented way we potentially could get inflation down significantly, without having a big recession, which previous to 2023 that really doesn't happen. we did that in 2023, as we are looking in 2024 we clearly hit a bump at the start of this year, and we just have to get comfort that it is not a sign of rear acceleration of the economy. tom: chicago fed president austan goolsbee speaking with our colleague michael mckee. let's focus on what is happening in terms of gaza.

the context is that ceasefire talks happening over the weekend in cairo coordinated by qatar and the u.s. seem to have stalled. now we are seeing reports that israel, and confirmation that the military has now put in an evacuation order on 100,000 civilians in rough. according to the israeli military. there is a limited scope operation in parts of russia which is a densely packed city, well over a million civilians packed into that city. they are saying that the kerem shalom crossings into gaza remains closed. a hamas attack led to the deaths of military personnel over the weekend. there is no change in the aid flow. the consequential line is that the military has asked some rafah civilians to move out of that city in preparation for an attack.

where israel says there are hamas battalions sheltering. the israeli currency drops its most in two weeks. 1.1% lower versus the u.s. dollar in terms of moves for the israeli shekel. we continue to monitor this story. oil is higher in the session today. brent up 0.4%. wti at 78.48, up 0.5%. this is a move the u.s. has warned against in terms of a potential attack on rafah, as has the european union. labour sweeping the u.k. local elections. keeping yet more pressure on prime minister rishi sunak. what it means for that impending general election. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> saddiq khan has been duly elected as mayor of london. >> an historic third term in the capital for labour's khan, adding to woe for prime minister sunak. the labour party is on course to win the next general election to be held later this year. the conservatives lost 470 council seats across england rate of the 11 regional layers up for election, -- mayors up for election, 10 were labour.

in blackpool south, another defeat for the government. the parliamentary by election seeing the only westminster seat up for grabs going to labour. this was the last major test of public opinion before a general election which has to be held within nine months. the threat of a or native move to oust the prime minister seems to have receded. his right-wing critics signaling they want sunak to own these losses. >> labour have been maintaining this lead. ever since rishi sunak, the third prime minister of this parliament came into office, there is nothing he has done that has moved that lead. if anything, things have got slightly worse. >> it was not all plain sailing from labour. signs the opposition is losing support because of it stands over the conflict in gaza. rishi sunak insists he is soldiering on. these results suggest the public is hungry for change. tom: alex morgan reporting.

let's bring in ros mathieson, bloomberg's news director in the mer region -- emea region. the threat with challenge from his own party seems to have receded, but your takeaway in terms of how bad this has been for the p.m. and his party, what is the top line for you? >> it is interesting how prime minister rishi sunak talking about minority government, they might lose the majority. the question also is when does he call it? he has got limited time until he has to have the election. does he wants him breathing space to let this all settled down? and that he is forced to call the election possibly at the worst time for him. he is running out of road. he needs to do something to regain voters. not just labour taking voters,

but his right flank potentially taking voters away. he is leading voters on either side. what can he do to rally the ship for the tories, at least to mitigate a tory lost later in the election later this year, but again, sunak really acknowledging he could be facing the effort to form a minority government. tom: what can we expect from the british prime minister in the weeks ahead as he looks to reset the agenda that presumably is in the cards for his team? do we know what the next steps will be given the challenge of this result? >> we can see many in his party, at least the far right, are urging him to tack right, that means more on immigration and pulling out of the human court. they are saying shore up that side but it was the left

that took puts away. it was not just labour, it was the greens, and that suggests voters are swinging, that they can be brought back to the tories, they are fiddling around with some of the other smaller parties, so their boat is up for grabs. it is interesting to see these parties saying you need to go really to the right, separate yourself completely from labour. and especially go hard on immigration. tom: a different message from the outgoing mayor of birmingham suggesting there was a moderate approach that should be taken. that debate remains acute within the tory party. ros mathieson on the consequences of local elections in what is very likely to be a general election year in the u.k. a big and wider implication for the u.k. prime minister and conservative party. bloomberg's news director in the mer region -- emea region. thank having lend may offer a

clearer signal on whether it plans to cut interest rates this summer. let's bring in ven ram from our bloomberg mliv team. the boe decision on thursday. we have been hearing dovish comments from bailey. is he expected to double down on that, is this a more dovish boe? >> it is a remarkably dovish boe we are looking at. this week i don't think they will have too much headroom to go hammer and tongs on the theme of dovishness because we will need to wait for april inflation data, and that will be crucial for the boe's calculus. the bank of england thinks april inflation data will give them go-ahead to cut rates later in the year but we need to wait and watch. headline inflation cooled a lot, but it is the core inflation metric and services metric that matter a whole lot. core inflation is running north of 4%, services inflation is

nudging around 6%. you have a policy rate at 5.25%, you have to ask what is the real policy rate? the real policy rate is probably 90 basis points if you look at core inflation, and negative if you look at services inflation. so the headroom for the boe to cut rates isn't a whole lot from here. tom: limited headroom. when it comes to other central bank decisions, what are you looking at? >> we have got the rba meeting tomorrow. and we had a nasty inflation surprise out of australia for the first quarter, or core inflation came in higher than anyone inspected on the street. the markets were thinking the rba may be able to cut rates later this year. that inflation print has shrank the market narrative. now the market thanks the next move will be a hike. we have got the swedish central

bank meeting later this week. for all the central banks in the region, i think sweden and switzerland have the greatest room to cut policy, and we may well get a rate cut from sweden because the economy is quickly going downhill and inflation is pretty well behaved. tom: potential cut coming through from sweden as we look ahead to the boe, but restricted room for the central bankers of the u.k. ven ram from bloomberg's mliv team. we will bring coverage of that boe rate decision and andrew bailey's news conference this thursday. that's from 12:00 p.m. u.k. time. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this could not have been scripted better.

this report runs the tables for a good report. >> a goldilocks report that will please the fed and markets. >> this is a good report across the board for validating what we heard from jay powell on wednesday. >> people are concerned we needed more hawkishness from the fed. we did not get it on wednesday, we got a more muted version of what's going on. >> now we are pricing two cuts for the year. >> people are looking for a little bit of a slowdown because they don't want to have to think about rates staying high for much longer. >> i think the fed would like to get a cut or two in this year. today opened the door for them to get that cut. tom: some of our guests on those u.s. jobs numbers. a goldilocks report coming through on friday last week. again underscoring the view that this is a federal reserve that can reconsider the prospects for

cut spray the markets pricing close to two now this year. odds on, basically split in terms of september, the odds are split in terms of whether they go in september. the market is pricing close to two cuts because the number was well below the estimates, but importantly, the average earnings that came through the lowest in terms of the increase on average hourly earnings since june of 2021. that is being scrutinized by fed officials. the top line was 175,000 well below the estimates of 240,000 and follows what may be perceived as dovish comments from powell, when he suggested it was unlikely the next move would be a hike. mark cranfield pointing out that the stickiness remains within the inflation components in terms of the data out of the u.s. but you did see that chart move on the front end in terms of yields lower and bonds bid on the back of that data. switching focused and recapping

what's been coming out of rafah. the israeli army saying 100,000 civilians are under evacuation order. we continue to monitor for you. the shekel is under pressure. oil is up on the back of this news. it seems israel is preparing for that military moving to rafah where well over a million civilians are sheltering. that order coming through after talks appeared around the ceasefire to have stalled over the weekend in cairo. there is plenty more coming up on this story and the broader market context. "markets today" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

>> good morning, i am anna edwards. here is what you need to know. stocks rise