daybreak: asia." counting down to asia major market opens. u.s. inflation front and center for us especially following university of michigan survey results on friday, but numbers coming out of china as well. haidi: really dire numbers when it comes to credit demand, but you look at households and corporates, just the difficulties that beijing policymakers are working with even as some parts of the market have run with the narrative that we have had a few good prints on certain parts of the economy, but the challenges still front and center there. annabelle: the open of japan, south korea, watching the nikkei225 coming online this morning. fairly flat so far, so tracks dissociated we had a wall street

on friday, university of michigan survey showing deteriorating sentiment that sets the tone for inflation numbers due later this week and what it means for the fed. japanese yen tracking a slight decline, firming up following two bouts of intervention, but today we are getting closer to the 156 level at this point in time, and also keeping track on whether that becomes a net negative for investors. blackrock is the latest saying yen weakness could deter foreigners from japanese equities even though we have's seeing it be a big moose when it comes to export gains. let's look at what is happening in korea. trade data, we do get the 10 day trade data from south korea that drops. we are waiting for those numbers

to come out, and exports gaining 16.5% on the year. not just for this region but korea a trading bill for the economy. haidi: take a look in terms of how we are starting to come online when it comes to that stagnant open in sydney. market to coming off three weeks of consecutive gains, perhaps a breather being taken there. one of the stocks we will be working -- watching our anz, australian regulator investigating the execution of a government bond issuance. 10 year treasury bonds by the australian office of financial management are fully cooperating. a bit of downside, 3.6% of the downside for anz bank.

watching the bonds, traders talking about australian fundraisers -- traders but also cpi traders waiting for the cpi to go in the opposite direction. we have seen the rebound for treasuries this month, the signs of cooling in the labor market in play. watching oil edging lower, really putting the spotlight on what to expect from opec+. iraq saying it will not agree to more output to more output cuts, and that raises the stakes up to the meeting on june 1. printed trading under $83 a barrel losing one point 5% in the friday session. wti at $78 u.s. as well. so much as been underpinned by supply cuts from opec was. look at treasuries, it is wait and see when it comes to the april consumer price index.

could you be the biggest test yet in terms of where this really goes, fed expectations and where the fed cut expectations will fall as well. annabelle: ramifications across a lot of different asset classes, but let's bring our nine next guest who says the market has a benign backdrop. george, what do you make of that dynamic we are seeing in the market at the moment, because the emphasis and enthusiasm around big tech, ai continued in 2024. do you want to be looking outside of those names at this time? >> i do. it is not as if big tech is compelling and intriguing. everyone is herding. it is leaving opportunities

available elsewhere especially in a global economy that is relatively stable. annabelle: when you look at the opportunities that are outside tech or ai, is it about finding new opportunities in those sectors or downstream different applications or about looking at something completely different instead? >> it is about. there are derivative plays when it comes to ai. nvidia has started brilliantly. microsoft is thinking of investing $100 billion data center. who will funnel all of the work that goes into it, everything from bulldozers to copper, so there are opportunities to cross that. if we have a stable economic environment, there will be a cyclical recovery and activity, and there are opportunities around ai cyclically driven. annabelle: we had the university

of michigan survey coming out showing consumer sentiment starting to weaken. we saw it in the results from starbucks and mcdonald's. are you concerned about the u.s. consumer at all? >> for sure, and i think the u.s. consumer is bifurcated. there is the high-end that is holding up. equity values and home values have held up. the folks that are not that are feeling inflation bite harder than their wages are going up, and you were starting to see credit deteriorate, so you have a dual speed consumer and it is something worth noting. haidi: the contrarian call on china as become less contrarian, but the data over the we can put into sharp relief the massive structure will slow down the government is dealing with. where do you see the opportunities? valuations are still cheap, but how selective are you in this market? >> i have a different take on the china credit data.

the credit is not great. it is a sign of a weak aggregated economy, and the credit impulse reflects that. heavy leverage, a lot of spending going on everywhere. so to see it a restructuring in a more healthy way and see less debt impulse is not negative from the long-term perspective in china. what is intriguing about china is not the cyclic he oriented areas of the economy but more secularly oriented areas. you have a lot of chinese companies that have fantastic business models where outside of china does a business models have been rewarded handsomely. in china they have not. to me that is the opportunity to play. haidi: i agree with what you have just said. after the difficult restructuring to the new normal, which of the sectors do you think will benefit? >> within china i love

technology and communications. those are the spaces they have been hit the hardest. people have flown into them and run away partly over worries of government policy, which i felt heavy-handed with response -- with respect to governing those sectors. we are seeing more balance going forward, and there was a concern these companies are getting left behind their western counterparts and in some ways they may be. part of this restructuring we are seeing with respect to geopolitical alliances is creating a more close it of companies for doing business within china and then companies within china that can serve the chinese market, whether it is consumer business, they will be better off and chinese tech companies are well-placed for that. haidi: you mentioned geopolitics. it we are still digesting implications of the quadrupling of tariffs on chinese ev suit being proposed by president

biden. how much volatility are you expecting to come up as we get closer to whidbey on november? do you think there will be meaningful challenges for chinese companies going forward? >> i think the tariffs are being contemplated and levied are for headlines and not impacting the economy much. you do not see chinese ev selling within the united states already. this is for headlines. a bigger concern is what happens postelection this year in the united states, whether there will be a hardening of tensions. right now things are pretty bad. hopefully they did not get worse, but a lot of that negativity is already reflected in chinese equities. we have seen three consecutive negative years. all you need this less bad news to get things rolling again. annabelle: less bad news makes me think of sentiment around

china, and it can be pretty anti-china and the u.s., and -- in the u.s., and a lot of guess we speak to our disinterested and investing in the market. do you think there was an understanding of the chinese economy and other parts of the world and a chance other opportunities are being left on the table? >> for sure they are opportunities being left on the table. china is relatively opaque on the lack of transparency is causing distress especially when you see regulatory action of been as quickly, and people say it is not worth it, and they are ignoring positive steps being taken to get investor confidence back into china occurring, so there is substantial negativity. i think the negativity as well overdone and creating massive opportunities. there will be a lot of criticism of our china actions from a regulatory perspective whether

for-profit educational companies, regulation on the big tech companies. we have seen that some of the regulation happened in the west. we have seen europe attack big tech, united states take out for-profit educational companies. if it happens in china, they get panicky. that is an opportunity. haidi: george, great to have you with us. take a look at some of the early movers we are seeing in japan, also in australia. honda expected to be an outperformer out of japanese automakers reporting, and we have positive numbers, upside above her 4%. sessions of the most in three years and trading volumes triple for this talk after the boost in buyback seeing another record year on hybrids when it comes to

profits from hybrids particularly in the u.s. market and two wheeler demand in asia. second largest automaker doing well. tokyo electron doing better-than-expected a given full year operating profit and income forecast all missing estimates. upside of about 1.3%. also watching softbank expecting earnings, said to return to profit after the shift from ai and the demand for chips, that is what bloomberg economics is expecting as well. we are seeing the selling of vision fund assets, pivoting away from the aggressive vc strategy. taking a look at stocks in sydney, anz bank is what we are watching most closely, saying the regulator is investigating

an australia bond issuance case there when it comes to downside. little bit of pressure on anz down 3.5%. the execution is in question in terms of 10 year treasury bonds by the office of financial management. annabelle: we will have more on the head hearing from the treasury, sees inflation returning to target. we will have an interview with jim chalmers. president biden is said to hike tariffs on a range of chinese goods with eeev's in -- with ev's in the crosshairs. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: the biden administration is said to significantly hike tariffs on some chinese goods and including nearly tripling tariffs on chinese electronic vehicles. stephen engle is there, and some of these are not big exports to the u.s., so is this more bark than bite? >> it is a lot of politics. it is an election year in the united states if you have heard and trump has been harping on tariffs as well. biden is taking a harder line on the green three, and chinese manufacturers who are seeing

their margins get crimped quite badly and their profitability is nonexistent, they are trying to export this excess capacity, but the biden administration sticking their can the ground and saying were not going to come here, because it is a political year. keep in mind only about 1% of all vehicles on the roads in the united states are ev's, and it looks like detroit is pulling back from that wave of enthusiasm. tesla is seen trouble, 32% stock down. the pace of growth is down considerably overall for ev's, so as our correspondent says the industry that made the automobile industry is sort of losing its nerve toward ev's. that is the back story when it comes to these terrorists.

we are hearing from sources that the biden administration will raise the tariffs on chinese made ev's to 102.5%. they're also good to a doubling or tripling of duties on other products made in china, whether that is solar cells, batteries, steel, and aluminum. there might be a bit of reprieve for solar cell manufacturing commitment as that is been asked for by the industry. haidi: does this define trade from what we have heard from trump? >> trump once i tougher trade regime and he mocked a's goal -- biden's goal. he said he would raise it up to 200% and warned of chinese manufacturers making ev's in mexico and under the

u.s.-mexico-candida agreement exporting them to the united states. he would put 200 percent tariffs, and trump said he wants to impose a across the board 60% tariffs on all chinese imports. we will have to see whether that is a significant talking point on that came pain -- on that campaign. haidi: don't miss our exclusive interview with janet yellen on the u.s.-china relationship on monday at the 5 p.m. hong kong live on bloomberg tv and radio. this comes as treasury is forecasting australian inflation could return to the central bank's target band before year end. jim chalmers told us about government spending priorities with his only international television interview. >> i think we have to strike a finer balance in this budget

between the near-term and long-term, and making sure we can provide cost-of-living relief for people who are doing it very tough. it will be a responsible budget. it will ease cost-of-living pressures, but we will also invest in the future. forecasting inflation at the moment is tricky at the best of times, but what the budget will do is it will put downward pressure on inflation rather than upward pressure on inflation. we have made substantial progress in australia in the fight against inflation, but people are still doing it tough, so people will be focused on that. >> the last six months or so the outlook for inflation is changed quite a lot. has that change your thinking on the way you would put your budget together? >> we are making progress on the fight against inflation. we know that it needs to be the primary focus particularly at the front end of the budget, so you will see substantial spending constraint, are

cost-of-living measures designed to take the edge of inflation rather than add to inflation, so overall our budget will be part of the solution to inflation rather than the problem. >> the future in australia, and how does that differ from the ira in the united states? >> what we are trying to do is make sure australia grabs the vast economic and industrial opportunities from the global shift and at zero, whether it is in the united states and most of the developed world, forest rally at we have huge advantages. our resources a, industrial base, energy, human capital base , our attractiveness as an investment destination, so what if future is all about is not about replacing private investment in the opportunities at the future, but attracting more of it. we need to make sure we get value for money for that. we have got our own unique set

of advantages as the economy changes, the global economy and the pace of that change accelerates. we want to make the most of it in create good, secure well-paying jobs and prosperity into the future, and that requires us to renew and broaden and deepen our industrial base. >> you mentioned australia's unique advantages, but isn't australia coming too late to this. our partners have by these policies in place for quite some time. >> we better get cracking then. we have made substantial investments in our ambitions to become a renewable energy superpower, which is really at the core of the future made in australia. the global economy will be powered by cleaner and cheaper energy, and we have a big role to play and that to become a reliable supplier, but there is more that needs to be done. a combination of tax incentives, targeted grants, making sure

that we have got the architect ure two attracted to play this investment. >> on critical minerals you will have announced $5 million for critical minerals. is that all we are expecting for critical minerals? >> you should expect more. critical minerals are the opportunity of the century. this is a golden opportunity for australia. our critical minerals bases one of the reasons why there is so much attention from global and domestic investors, but we need to make sure we can attract and apply that. exploration is an important part of that. geoscience open source science to map australia, groundwater, critical minerals opportunities being important part of it, but there will be more. >> china is starting to see a couple of green shoots and economy, but for australia we would like to see more.

from your conversations from around the world are you expecting to see more stimulus in the chinese economy going forward? >> there is a prospect of that. our budget will forecast chinese growth with a floor in front of it in the near term, and if that eventuates that will be the weakest period of growth since china began opening up in the late 1970's, so the chinese economy has been solved. the property sector has been a big part of that but not the only part of that, and that weakness as offset in our global forecast the strength we are seeing in the u.s. annabelle: that was the australian treasure jim chalmers. we will have more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: some political developments we are tracking this morning, the philippines says china as it deployed vessels and divers to explore in the south china sea for reclamation. it sent to patrol ship to deter china's activities. the area is close to a philippines island which directly faces contested waters. it adds to growing tensions between manila and beijing. the u.s. says israel risks fueling a postwar insurgency with thousands of armed militants remaining in the territory even if israeli forces invade rafah. israel says it is a vector with

a part of the city as it prepares to expand operations. last week the u.s. that it would withhold weapons that may be used in rafah and solid evidence that israel has raised international laws protecting civilians. russian president vladimir putin has replaced as long serving defense minister in a surprise move. he had been in the post since 2012. this is the first major shakeup of the kremlin's military leadership since the ukraine invasion and comes as a question it's easy to capitalize on a battlefield advantage in the war. we will be speaking exclusively to emmanuel macron about the war, trade, her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock.

so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

i haidi: we are half an hour of trading in japan, korea, and

australia, pretty muted start to the trading week. nikkei down by point three of 1%. a little bit of a boost when it comes to the kospi at a broadly downside before australian stocks. this is a market coming off of three weeks of gains, so perhaps a breather being taken here. new zealand downed .6 of 1%. some of the stocks we are watching, she soto -- shiseido is one of them. a bump up about 6% rising on the first quarter core operating profit. was up by 7%, the most at about 1.5 years. broader declines of the topics, shares up about 11% this year. first impressions according to the likes of nomura, positive

reaction. olympus gaining 5.7%. downside to reaction being seen by anz, an investigation of the bank six you should have a government bondage ration -- bond issuance last year. at is being investigated? >> they are looking at what happened to the sale of government debt and anc's role in that, so it is typical for banks, a syndicate and a number of banks together to be involved in the sale of government bonds, but something seems to a pickup -- to have picked up some irregularity, so they are looking into one of these sales last year and anz's role in that.

those of the basic mechanics of what has happened in come out in the last few hours, but it begs quite a lot of questions now, which we hope to answer in the coming days to two weeks about what really did happen during the trading of this? at the time, was it something that happened subsequently, and what worthy the other banks that were involved in this? is this something isolated to anz, or were there other firms involved in the sales that also look in some way irregular as well? of course, the broader context here is this is not the first time an australian bank has been involved in accusations of impropriety in markets like these. if you cast your memory back a few years to the swap rate, there were cases taken to the court not just for anz, but

other banks as well around irregular trading that existed in those markets, so it does bring back memories of those markets, but it is too early to tell what happened. we need to dig into the details and understand what was anz's role in this government on sale and what are the specifics of the irregularities that happened that prompted them to look further and investigate just what is happened. annabelle: anz says it is cooperating fully, but do we get a sense of what the investigation it would look like and how long it could take? touch more on the possible penalties here? >> it is a little bit early to tell, but the bank is cooperating with the regulator as you would expect. the question is what that level of interaction and communication is?

are they really drilling down into specific one-off irregularities they found, or is it more about a series of events that happened over time? and therefore it is really too early to throw around any numbers in terms of what might result out of this or any potential penalties further down the line. we do not know enough about what happened, what went wrong, and why it went wrong. that is what we will be looking at and some of the key details we want to drill into and try to find that in the coming days. annabelle: that was our finance editor. sticking with equity markets, taking a look at the moves regressing to the upside for china and hong kong stock so for this year, up more than 9% over the course of 2024, so on part of the s&p 500.

that comes after three brutal years that's all major chinese indices plunged more than 40%. let's bring in now reporter. there has been so much optimism around this, policy support coming through from the politburo, better economic numbers. how much further can we go from here? >> we have been seeing that rally coming on the black of the blazing tech rally. tencent, alibaba, baidu, and jd.com, and they make up more than a quarter of the china msci index. they have been pushing these indices up to be on par with the s&p 500 just like you said, but there are so many asterix coming in especially with the chinese government rolling up more of these subsidies and announcements in the property

sector, and we have the dollar pegged to the u.s. dollar, so they were so many aspects that are looking good for these equities, but there are some concerns. there is a concern of equities being overbought now that a lot of foreign investors are coming in with this fear of missing out, and they are saying it could be a tactical rally for the time being, so we need to watch out for all these matters, especially geopolitical tensions with the u.s. is a space we are watching very carefully. haidi: four inflows for stocks as early as monday, so we have had advance warning of this. what are you watching in terms of the reaction? >> so the chinese government decided to switch off or

planning to switch off as early as today these live feed of purchases and sales of local stocks from foreign investors, so in the past we were able to trace that real time, but now they will turn it into a daily basis turnover release, so that will be on par with international centers. that is what authorities are saying, but it would be a difference is not every fund will be able to watch real-time data. of course the stocks rallied after this announcement, because retailers in china have been warning for this to happen, as this is fueled negativity into real-time data, so we will see how equities react to that today, and of course, we are also watching biden's terrace as our u.s. colleagues were reported on friday that he is potentially going to be releasing more tariffs on solar

cells, ev makers for china, so we are watching the shares. annabelle: that was our asia stocks reporter, and we will have more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: asia's earnings spotlight shifting to internet giants. single digit revenue growth according to estimates and sewer first quarter at a growth for baidu and better margins for jd.com. also hearing from japan up las vegas megabanks they could to get jump in their annual profits, and the one we want to litter on monday, softbank will probably report treatment pluses -- trimmed plusses. let's get more insight with our guests. tell us what you were constructive on softbank. >> i think that the two great business driving something today are arm and the japan businesses

, which are the telecom businesses, and that is growing 16%, 70% in organic profit terms, and something growing a strongly as that is misunderstood and trading on a organic price-earnings, single double digit, no double digit is it attractive investment proposition. the vision fund is massively important, but it is very hard to assess the vision fund quarter to quarter. valuations on the investing companies, it is hard to gauge the overall direction just from that. we think the vision fund will be a massive lung torrents -- long-term story for softbank. they are driving a very stable, visible profit growth for what you do not have to perry very much for this misunderstood company in our view.

haidi: we have seen the portfolios shrink by $29 billion since the end of 2021. it has been a series of sales at a write-downs. the strategy has prevented -- p ivoted to ai. >> that is a great question. and it is true that softbank has changed a little bit its direction. it has done that many times during its life. remember the exits debate on the vision fund, actual cash exits have been positive. its investment track is very good, and money it has made it is employing in slightly different directions, including arm's proposal to enter ai chips.

that is not a totally different direction. obviously the major, almost exclusive supplier for chip architecture for mobile. it looks like they will be using outsourcing arrangements and selling infrastructure themselves. it is a new tilt, but it brings together all of softbank's amazing resources, obviously with arm and of the companies in the semiconductor supply chain and the many users of the semiconductor technology especially including automated driving and energy and many energy related investments it is made. there is something of a change of policy, but the fundamental idea of investing massively and early in pioneering and changing forms, that fundamental idea has always defined softbank can define something today --

softbank today. annabelle: if you were saying softbank is undervalued do you think is the true value? >> there are two ways to answer that. if you look at the price-earnings multiple and comparable multiple for internet global megas and the growth this company is giving, it is probably 50% undervalued right now. another way to answer the question it is to look at the net asset value. the vision fund stakes and someone, and on a net value as it basis, softbank is probably even more undervalued than what i said. it is probably 60%, 70% undervalued. this is one of the most misunderstood large japanese companies. it is growing fine even on visible earnings. it is undervalued, and the

potential in division fund is very large, including in this new enhancement of potential move into ai semi conductors. annabelle: how many other misunderstood or undervalued companies do you see across japan's tech landscape? >> a ton is the simple answer. we have $1 billion u.s. worth of investment in the japanese space, companies that make chips, make the materials that make chips, and softbank which is all of this exposure to the semiconductor supply chain, and that $1 billion we hold worth of japanese semi conductor stocks, thing from laser tag chemical company and semi conductor equipment, we things -- we think those things are undervalued possibly because they are in

japan and people do not realize that they are global companies indispensable to the supply chain. factories in columbus, ohio, taiwan, or arizona, these companies are vital parts of the design and manufacture with these global companies are using, and so we think that the semiconductor space is particularly undervalued opportunity within the japanese market. stepping back a little bit, the japanese market the less you are so has been led by a few sectors, like banks and commodities stocks and cheap yen place. we think the market is due for a leadership change and the stocks could well be new leaders of the market into the next phase of the market's appreciation, we suggest. annabelle: that was richard kaye. let's think about who the market

leadership was being driven in china, and that is the tech space predicated on the moves we have had a big tech, and alibaba, tencent among those, so they will be reporting the results on tuesday. let's get up review from our tech reporter. let's just start with alibaba. what are we expecting, and probably a particular focus on the ai front as well. >> we have not had alibaba and tencent reporting on the same day for years, so it will be exciting. it investors will be comparing the results side-by-side. it is a barometer for the chinese economy, which is not doing so great. for alibaba, at the bottom line is there e-commerce, and on top of that ai. it made its ai language model open source, meaning more developers will be using their services, and it is a strategy mirroring microsoft.

in alibaba's case, commerce will give us a sense of where chinese consumers are spending and on the cloud side we will see if it can compete against other makers like tencent and baidu. haidi: tell us what we are expecting for tencent. these two companies are major barometers for the broader economic recovery story. >> for tencent the growth is centered around wechat. we have a video feed and live shopping and games that will contribute to their advertising and game purchases. wechat has this program ecosystem that is a major part for revenue, so it is sort of

like tencent's growth is too much, and at the same time tencent's main gaming business is not doing so great. these are years old, and executives told us less on the gaming revenue will be picking up from q2, that means in this past quarter. we will probably still see a sign of weakness in their bread-and-butter division. annabelle: tencent, alibaba, the first time we are seeing them reporting on the same day and a number of quarters. that was our tech reporter. we will have more ahead on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

annabelle: quick check on some of the results of our latest mliv survey, this taking a look at whether the yen is a safe haven currency? the majority of respondents saying "no." unsurprising of course, some of the respondents citing ultra easy monetary policy really driving the big weakness we have seen in the japanese yen this morning around the 156 level, so

the dollar being seen as the best currency and swiss franc as well. we are also looking at inflation hedges, and this was more of the interesting findings. the majority saying large-cap or big tech is not an effective recession had, but nearly 40% saying u.s. tech stocks not only i bet on possible hedge against price pressures but the traditional bet on the innovation. chip stocks and semi conductors in particular does come down to the race we see between major superpowers, and you have got the u.s., the european union funneling $88 billion that escalates the global slowdown was trying out for chip supremacy.

mckenzie hawkins joins us for more. we have seen so much money coming through from the u.s., europe, announcements from korea, japan as well. how much does that stack up against the level and size of the get coming through from china? >> a lot of these questions are playing catch-up to decades of china industrial policy in this space. we estimated china is on track to invest $142 billion into chip making compared to $39 billion from the u.s. it is a lot of catch-up, we are seeing an investment into different type of technologies. in the u.s. and european union they are pursuing the most advanced semiconductors, where china is doubling down on older generation chips. haidi: how are we seeing the issue of export controls come into play here? >> until 2019 when the u.s.

listed huawei, it was catching up, but with the initial sanction and u.s. sanctions on the chip makers and sweeping export controls initially implemented in 20 and have ratcheted up, that assaulted china in its tracks on producing the most of events chips, so the response from beijing is to double down on state aid to its price technology companies and focus on the areas where they can win, and didn't that space it is old semiconductors for go into every piece of technology did you can think of, and there is worry now that china will produce so many of those chips -- if they have the world -- set to open all over the world that

could create a glut. haidi: let's take a look at how futures are setting up. this is the picture when it comes to trading in the u.s. consumer numbers as well as setting up for expectations of inflation data out this week will kind of determine which direction this market goes, looking flat at the moment. taiex futures up about .6 of 1%. percolating through disappointing credit data that we have from china over the weekend. dollar-ch trading pretty steady at this point. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: asia." ♪ boring does. boring makes vacations happen, early retirements possible, and startups start up. because it's smart, dependable, and steady. all words you want from your bank. for nearly 160 years,

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david: we made it, it is monday. i have an hour away from the opening bell in shanghai, hong kong, and shenzhen.