haidi: this is daybreak asia, counting down to major opens. we are expecting a lift to equities following the u.s. inflation print. japan gdp figures were really disappointing what economists expected. haidi: thank key cpi data, by the way, seems like it came out early. we are hearing from the bureau of statistics talking about the early release of the cpi and real earnings data that they had inadvertently loaded a subset of files 30-minutes before the release, the office of the inspector general had been notified of the incident and they are conducting a full probe into controls there. annabelle: certainly and is a surprise for markets because we saw them push higher off the

back of that record, record, record -- we cannot say that enough -- because we have indices at fresh record highs and the u.s. stocks one of them, 23rd-the s&p 500 this year. that is playing into the session, the nikkei 225, up .80% today, and we saw that rally rod base in the session but in japan, the focus is on financials because we had a number of banks yesterday recording better than stronger forecast for the year ahead. what also's claim into the dynamic are gdp figures -- what is also playing into that dynamic are the gdp figures. a lot worse than what was expected with the contraction of 1.2%, and retail and business spending, as well. let's switch to korea because we are coming back from an extended holiday on wednesday. the kospi pushing up high, 1.4%,

softening the weakness we saw in u.s. housing and retail sales. we are also seeing the focus in korea is on how korea is trying to boost its online stock market with the program that mirrors what we have seen in japan so far, and we do know that the korea exchange ceo is planning to hold a roadshow in new york to sell the benefits of it. haidi: take a look at how we are trading, just getting sessions here in sydney, but we expect strong gains, really, the dual forces and also getting benefits for australian assets when it comes to the reports, suggesting beijing is so sitting feet back on a plan that would allow local governments snap up unsold homes, one of the most ambitious steps we would see if they were to take it to address the property glut and the broader property issues there. take a look, up about .30%, and

we are seeing some benefit in terms of the china eco-proxy. and we are seeing the move across treasuries for us trillion bonds, following the gains we saw in the early part of the session. slightly yes then the u.s. treasuries, where yields fell across the board, but we are seeing that move tracked by australia and we are getting more data from australia later on thursday, and the rba's assistant governor said that there is no quick fix to australia's crisis in housing. both rentals and purchases are facing the worst housing crisis in living memory. let's bring in marc franklin, a senior portfolio and edger for

many life investment management. great to have you with us. if you strip away the headline number, the super corn of her still show that there is sticky inflation elements, still kind of the first encouraging sign we have had across consumer inflation in six months. what is the reaction outsized to you? marc: good morning. you have to remember that for the time of january to march, we had three successive months of upside surprises. yesterday's print, which was not event in the course that it was probably in-line, but it really show that inflation moderated, so it is .8% the prior month, and that created welcome relief for markets, and we start to see rate hike going back to two from 1.5. from that point of view, the breaking of the upside surprise

trend is not all that surprising since they reacted favorably to the data. haidi: there is still a great deal of uncertainty, and if you listen to the messaging from the fed, jay powell, how do you play the market at the moment? do you take advantage of the next couple of months of higher for longer before you pivot? marc: i think we have to look at different asset classes. equities, and the growing sentiment toward them, incorporate earnings season where nobody is tracking really well. the gdp growth data has moderated somewhat over the last couple of weeks, and for the time being, if the market comes more familiar with the short-term asset, we think that they quite well. one thing we have contemplated is to broaden out and diversify

our equity exposure more globally, so diverting a little bit away from the u.s. model, such as asia, europe, hong kong, for example. on the fixed income side, we would still like inflation protecting, such as treasury inflation bonds, floating-rate notes, and to cancel the risk that inflation remains volatile, and above target, we continue to look for opportunities in the commodity and energy space, as well. annabelle: i wanted to ask about commodities. we are hitting the highest in a year, and there are inflation threats, so how you think about the risk and investing around it? marc: for some time, there has been structural underinvestment in major commodities globally, and there was always going to become of wayne's where that structure under the new supply onto the market would spot prices, so look at copper.

that has really gone ahead the last few weeks. we are signaling that copper has a structural supply issue the next decade, and we did not expect that the front curve would rally just now but eventually. we also like uranium because of the preparation of ai and data demands, which is going to feel increased interest in nuclear energy, so it is a supply driven story that is meeting a growing short-term demand pressure point, so we are looking selectively across the commodity complex but because of our secular view over the next decade or so, because of our fiscal stimulus, inflation will remain volatile, supply resilience will be tested, commodities look like it will be an asset class that will figure prominently in our portfolios. annabelle: what about other markets? japan is sensitive to any policy

direction and we had gdp figures coming out on economist expectations, the story of weaker retail and business spending. do you think that will give investors a reason to pause on that market? marc: great question. bank of japan is in a challenging spot. it is not confident that inflation will reach its target, so it might surround the conditions quite loose, that that creates downward pressure, and one reason why they are happy and japan, and you see that in the gdp data, it is because of a sense of loss of purchasing power because of the weaker currency in rising inflation, so how businesses are screaming for a tighter policy scenting, they are concerned about inflation tailoring off, and that is one challenge. while there may be further adjustments in terms of balance sheet policy by japan, there

will also be baby steps. at the same time, we don't see any particular point every acceleration of growth. that is not such a bad situation. a competitive yen fueled by a perception that the boj is running easier monetary policy than other central banks should attract close in equity market -- flows in equity market. the bank of japan has been a big buyer of equity etf's the last few years. those purchases are on pause. will they consider starting to dispose of those etf holdings into the market? on a fundamental basis, it makes sense because it is large profits, where they to become into the market, that would pressure japanese equities relative to other markets. haidi: i would like to talk on something top of mind, national security policy, and other things surrounding what we have

seen with the proposed brian, the tariffs, -- buy-in, the tariffs, australia's policy, which mirrors what we see with the inflation reduction act, how do you invest around these themes more broadly? marc: great question. one of the things that we learned from covid was you cannot always rely on your traditional supply chain. and fast-forward to today, we have a geopolitically tense situation. the world is becoming increasingly volatile and they are looking to shore up their industrial base. make sure that it is not dependent for critical products and services on overseas supplies. and with that is doing is it is fueling rising investment in strategic governments in their domestic industries, creating opportunities for midsize businesses in the industrial

space in the u.s., which are benefiting from government subsidies as those countries start to bring their supply either onshore domestically or to reshore back to friendly economies and trade economies, as well. haidi: that was marc franklin, senior portfolio manager at man u like investment. annabelle: you can get around up of stories you would like to know on this edition of daybreak. today very much focused on u.s. inflation numbers in retail sales numbers on what that means for the outlook the fed. you can get that on your terminal, and you can also get it on the bloomberg anywhere app and customize your settings so you only get news on the industries and assets that you care about. what else we are tracking is how the markets are performing. we are mostly seeing moves to the upside. we will have more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: taking a look at numbers for japan's megabanks, earnings yesterday from mitsubishi, matsuri, and mizuho financial group. pretty much downside with straight lenders coming through. let's get more with our editor, russell ward into deal.

as soon as i sell the numbers coming online, i was surprised given the record profits, and i talked to you about it, and you talked about the size of the buybacks in particular. russell: that is right. it is strange, japan's biggest banks forecasting another round of record profits, and the shares fall. really, this is because they are not sharing enough of the profits with investors in investor eyes. a buyback plan was announced a ¥100 billion, and that is less than 1% of its outstanding stock, so one analyst said before that this would be a negative surprise, and he was right about that. the buyback was the same size, but the percentage of the stock was a little higher, so we are seeing it rise a little bit. also, it's forecast was

higher-than-expected, and in the third bank, mizuho financial did not announce any buyback, but that is in line with expectations. obviously, just disappointing news, as well. annabelle: what is the downside risk in this set of results? russell: i mean, if you look at the results themselves, they are really positive, and the banks are in an urn of right addition right now with a weekend -- weak yen, and, of course, the negative interest-rate policy is now gone, so i would expect for more income at home has improved, but one thing that they are reliant on, the local stock market. they have been offloading a lot of cross shareholdings and

booking gains. the stock market reached a record high last quarter but the rally has stalled since then. sorted of at the whims of the market -- sort of at the whims of the market, there is a downside risk. and the ceo was expecting briefings on the risk of geopolitics, which all companies have to contend with. but the megabanks are aware of those, as well. for the megabanks, it is pretty positive, and you should expect that they will come out conservatively this fiscal year, with the prospect of more share back returns and that is something to look forward to. annabelle: you mentioned geopolitics. what other somatic stood out for you from earnings? whether any notes made around hiring trend or anything around other factors that would be

coming across two different lenders? russell: yeah, i think one thing that the banks like to show off in the results is their ability to diversify away from lending, particularly on a global basis, and look into different markets, and into more feed businesses, so one ceo was keen to point out that they have been doing well in investment banking and that they have had a lot of good deals in the u.s., so diversifying away from traditional banking areas into other areas, and that is important for the megabanks. haidi: russell ward in tokyo. the largest u.s. crude so exchange coinbase is eerily -- is zeroing in on australia sector. this is a significant portion of the market, about one quarter of the pensions market that we are

talking about in australia. why do we see this interest by coinbase and one other trying to do about it? >> a few things, but, firstly, the growth in australia's pension fund system generally attracts new businesses that see the long-term trajectory of the growth, so that overall high is growing, so wanting to get a slice of it are an increasing number of foreign funds. in the crypto space, what coinbase are doing, they did not elaborate, but they are targeting the funds in australia, and they seem to have more of a higher propensity for risk in areas like cryptocurrencies, where the big institutional money managers who manage the majority of pensions and australia have shied away from the assets and are more interested in the traditional bonds, equities, that kind of allegory that they tend to stay away from crypto, but coinbase

in this interview showed that with their representative hearing in this part of the world that they do not even need lots of trading. they need a customer to come and execute and by some crypto assets, and then essentially, just leave it in holding as part of their smf s folio, so then what they are looking at is the increasing number of customers, particularly younger ones, interested in building a crypto position in their pension that they can essentially set and forget, leave it, maybe come back to in a few months and years and tweak it, but it is using that appetite and to build it out as a long-term component of their pension fund at the time. annabelle: we have seen a lot of the larger pension funds shying away from assets like the. is that caution warranted?

adam: it is no secret that digital assets broadly speaking have been very, very volatile asset. we have seen that in a number of the drawdowns, bitcoin, but also another cryptocurrencies. clearly, there is no element of how big a position do you want to take in a crypto market? in something like a pension fund, which is going to fund you in your retirement. there is still some anxiousness and some wariness around making that position to make, and that is what we heard from someone in this story here is a very well-regarded person who is on the association who looks after the people who are doing these self managed funds, so that is an area of concern but coinbase and some of the other big rivals , but also the local players,

btc markets and some of those other local players, clearly, you see the overall growth outweighing any risk associated with volatile processes -- prices. haidi: more to come here on daybreak asia. ♪

annabelle: russian president vladimir putin arrived in china on the first foreign trip of his new term, underlying the importance of his relationship with beijing as russian forces press forward in ukraine. stephen engle is here with the details. this visit is off the back of his meeting key leadership changes that signals he is setting up for a long conflict

in ukraine. how important is the timing of this visit given -- stephen: the friendship. annabelle: exactly. stephen: china is an indispensable ally for vladimir putin in moscow as the warheads into its third year. no doubt you need friends, finances and firepower, but i'm not saying china is supporting that or supplying the weapons needed on the battlefield, but there have been dual use technologies found on the battlefield in ukraine that have come from china. i'm talking semiconductors, dual use technologies, ball bearings -- anybody who knows anything about war, they need ball bearings for their machinery and the like, and other equipments and electronics. he arrived at 4:00 a.m. the guy gets up earlier than we do incorporate television. so he will have meetings with

his no limits friendship, his friend xi jinping, before heading off to the eighth annual russian-chinese expo. that is more symbolic. he is there to shore up support. he is bringing his new defense chief, an economist by trade, and he is also replacing his central bank governors. annabelle: i mean, he is bringing the brass, the new defense chief, and the central bank. haidi: has this given us an indication of the wants from this trip? stephen: as i said, you need your finances straight. the biggest benefactor to moscow right now is, of course, china. and there has been some rumblings, growing pressure from washington on the banks in china not to fund some certain trade

between russia and china because of of the concern that it could directly support the war in ukraine, so we saw a two way trade between moscow and china and that is more than double what we saw in 2020, but we have also seen the last couple of months a year over year trade decline on a year-over-year basis. russian media reported that chinese banks in late march locked payments for electronic assembly. that is an indication perhaps that there is some worry and the chinese banking community of state banks not to violate, you know, u.s. sanctions, and the potential threat of secondary sanctions coming from washington being cut off from the u.s. financial system. and we are hearing that they are bringing his central bank governors for one thing, to find

ways to use smaller banks that are not tied to the u.s. banking system to facilitate some trade. that is one thing on the agenda, as well as talks on the power of siberia's gas pipeline. haidi: stephen engle looking at that trip and what will be on the agenda. looking at our futures in europe, we saw that continuation to the cpi print in the european session. this is the picture as we see pictures setting up another set of gains. we saw the rally on the inflation sales number, we saw hefty gains across the floor. watching the euro in terms of watching the euro in terms of the year to date trendline, life's daily battles are not meant to be fought alone.

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haidi: taking a look at the japanese yen, you see it holding onto the recent advance. we had the biggest drop for the dollar gauge overnight after that inflation current came through. still, we could test a dynamic is the japan gdp figures because they came out a short time ago, showing the economy and japan contracted in the first quarter, that is consumers and businesses that decided to reduce their spending. let's bring in senior editor brian fowler. we can get to the boj in a moment but firstly, the numbers themselves, it was a fair undershooting of what economists had expected according to their survey. what drove that? brian: that is absolutely right. the numbers were terrible. as mentioned, this is investment that failed more than expected, personal consumption failed more than expected and exports were

also a grind, so we have a bleak result. in addition, for fourth quarter 2023, it was revised lower and showed no growth at all, so for the last three quarters, we have either had minus results or no growth, so it is looking really bad on that front. a lot of that is inflation, which is weighing on consumption, but some of the results in some one-off factors, we had the new year's day earthquake that struck northern tokyo, and then we had disruptions to the auto center, and there was a scandal over safety certifications that were forged, and that halted factory output, and that is all back online, so those are one-off factors that definitely weigh on growth more than expected the first quarter.

haidi: when it comes to expectations for growth going forward, i guess the premise that the boj will be able to move quicker from here? brian: we can expect a good balance of the april-june quarter. for one and, one-off factors have all disappeared, the faculty outcome is back online, and they will also be a pretty solid base effect after three quarters of contractions or zero growth, we can expect a bounce there, and we have rate hikes that we decided late in the quarter, late, late march, which were bigger than expected. the boj has said a number of times, that consumption has started to rebound if and when we see an increase in real wages, and that would be the first time in a couple of years. if we get rate hikes of 5% or

more, that is a faster pace than the inflation we expect this year, so that would be a substantial increase in real wages, and that would used household spending for the first time in more than a year. economists are saying in terms of the boj making its next move, we still think it will happen this year, a mixed situation in terms of expectations for june and july or waiting until october, but when we see the april-june data for gdp, the boj will get a green light to move. so probably in the second half of this year. haidi: brian fowler, senior editor there. we are seeing great across the board as we see record high after record high sector across global markets with a look at european markets, and we have germany, france, broader european stocks, both major

benchmarks in the u.s. setting fresh, record highs, and on the back of the exuberance over the fact that specifically, core u.s. inflation was the lowest in three years, perhaps looking at the stickier core readings, but this is as we continue to see the nikkei 225 despite concerns over the gdp numbers, we are seeing upside. the kospi is showing leadership when it comes to korean stocks and the benchmark, rising as much as 1.6% previously in the session, set to set the new year to date high. we are seeing in particular gains for samsung, as well, but it is the broad-based rally that we are seeing across asia. annabelle: also going to be watching how china markets, online and the return of trading in hong kong because baidu and

jd.com are reporting on thursday, so far, mixed results, tencent with a better-than-expected set of earnings, and alibaba. let's bring in the head of asia internet research at goldman sachs, ronald keung, we have had questions on how much profits will be squeezed here. ronald: we had to make cap reported so far this week, and a few more coming. so far, it has been solid earnings, and any topline that came in line. this is part of our four themes that we expect that china internet has revised and updated for april, which is to fight back the incumbents. we have alibaba and tencent talking about gains accelerating, gm coming back at alibaba and the fight back of the incumbents are leading to

revision of topline or at least some expectations at the top line where we accelerate into the rest of the year. and then into this second quarter so far, as we look at the conference next week in hong kong, with 160 companies coming, we expect this to be the meeting around how the current economic and consumption trends are going, and we have seen them track ahead the past two months, part of growing around 20% to 30% year-over-year in the recent one or two months. that means consumers are buying still, cheaper things, the average ticket size is coming down but they are still buying, and that is on the front of expectations that will be key to the sustainability of how internet performs, and the internet rallied funny percent year-to-date, while shareholder return is the other thing highlighting, which is how they are buying back 5% and 9% of

shares plus, buybacks, so this could provide downside potential while anticipating consumption into june 18. annabelle: you mentioned the return of incumbents into the space, and looking at jd.com and alibaba and how much their revenue growth has trailed their peers, the expense of alibaba to regain market share can come against jd.com, and they are really fighting against each other, so how much has this become a real zero-sum game and now both companies are hit? ronald: we see china e-commerce as a zero-sum. we see it growing at 8%. the value are at 8%. we have five to six players, not just alibaba and jd. there are other platforms, and therefore, this year, what we see is the fight back of giants, and double-digit growth in the march quarter.

we will see where the numbers look for for jd tonight, but we have seen a slowdown in the initial share gainers in the fight back of the incumbents within this increasing zero-sum game, but within it, we are seeing ai and applications into helping merchants target consumers more effectively and we are seeing tech driving and looking at increase in e-commerce, and that is one of the views that tech remains a key driver in china online advertising, and like the competition in e-commerce, we are seeing upside to add revenues from applications of ad tech. haidi: for zero-sum survival of the fittest, does that apply for who you would choose within the gaming space? ronald: in game mean, we think the leading players continue to consolidate the market, and with applications that we talked about on the ai applications,

games is one, and we are seeing continued consolidation within the china gaming market like tencent, and there are upcoming lunches, as well, so we are seeing with this re-acceleration with evergreen titles, which are gains that have been launched for a long time with tools, and at the same time, companies are looking abroad, so international gaming, growth has accelerated this year with titles that have been popular and has been driving some increase in growth and trend in international gains, as well. annabelle: before we let you go, i would like to get your views when it comes to the future of tiktok. we are hearing that there are very specific interests, and it will be a hard and expensive so, but there are moves for

conglomerates and buyers. how do you see the story playing out? ronald: in one of the names we highlight for china internet is the domestic landscape is increasingly supporting a platform economy so that domestic businesses lift china verticals with recruitment on these players, and we are seeing a shift in investor sentiment into going global, and that has been for geopolitical concern and scrutiny across chinese or china apps operating in u.s. and europe, so there is produced investor appetite and taking views in some of these global platforms, and we have seen some of the bans proposed and

passed, and we think investors are more focused in education names, and slightly less into companies with more geopolitical concerns, but in that case, we are seeing more companies looking into growth outside of china, and looking into south america, and these are still key growth drivers for e-commerce platforms. annabelle: thank you, that was ronald keung. tracking through the morning session about the reaction to the prints, and one thing to notice, the japanese yen strengthening beyond 154, the first time we have seen that since may 7. we will have more ahead on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪ but... taking the gains is smart here, right? feel more confident with stock ratings from j.p. morgan analysts in the chase app.

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haidi: the political stories we are watching, the u.s. will send a delegation to taiwan for the inauguration of the president-elect. washington says it is an keeping with the practice of sending officials to support the democratic electoral process. the election was a setback in the chinese presidents attempts for more influence over the self-governing island. the new prime minister of singapore's warning for a more

violent world. wong so singapore should brace for new realities as great powers will try to redo world order. he says it is not just for u.s. and china. the indonesian new leader says he would like -- >> i'm determined to build on that foundation on that foundation, and my first will be food and then energy security, energy self-sufficiency, and then we are determined to bring

down poverty and effort, determined to get rid of hunger amongst our people, especially the young, and in the end, we have to concentrate on processing our natural resources. we have to make a great effort in down streaming and industrialize, and all of this needs good governance. i'm determined to cut down corruption. waste. and with that, we are confident and bullish and determined to bring this all about. >> all ambitious if you would like to do it in your first term, five years.

can you achieve a growth target beyond 5% in order for you to fulfill what you have set out to do? in my conversation earlier, he said he has laid the foundation, implementing the policies, and put infrastructure needed for indonesia to grow at 7%. can you achieve 7% or more in five years of government? >> i'm very confident. i've talked with my experts, i have studied the figures. i'm very confident we can easily achieve 8% and i'm determined to go beyond. >> 8% within the five years, the first, second year? or are you going beyond? >> i would say within three years, yes. >> you talk about down streaming, what are the other growth drivers? or were down streaming be key to

you achieving 8%? >> down streaming will take several years. what will be a gross driver in the first years will be our concentration on agriculture, food production, food distribution, and energy. we would like to go green in a quick way. we would like to reduce our palm oil diesel, and this will be a very strong growth driver. we import $20 billion every year for diesel oil, so can you imagine the savings we will have when we will switch to biofuel?

>> i would like to touch on your spending plans. you talked about how you would like to provide free lunches, free milk for students, and some are questioning how you would pay for such a program. can you fund that program if you are unable to raise the limit of your budget office beyond 3%? you have said you can. >> we have studied this. we have -- we have studied all the figures, and we are very confident we can do that. we are very confident that we can do that, -- >> while keeping your budget deficit at 3% -- >> yes, 3%. and 3% is not arbitrary. not many countries hold to that, but we have a tradition of prudent fiscal management. i think we have the lowest jet

-- lowest debt to gdp figure in the world, one of the lowest. so now i think it is time to be a bit more daring within good governance. haidi: that was the indonesian president-elect with haslinda. we continue to watch the situation when it comes to central banks. the big question is the inflation numbers overnight. does it change the trajectory when it comes to the fed? that has huge implications for global and asian central banks. we are watching what to expect from the philippines. they are expected to stand pat. in fact, a lot of the same challenges are being played out when it comes to the philippines and the fight against inflation and the weakness we have seen in the peso, and with what we

have seen in the u.s. dollar and expectations, essentially we are getting to work point where we are seeing a reprieve. all 26 in the bloomberg survey expect the fed to leave the rate steady, a hold for a fifth straight meeting. the inflation, the most recent numbers, for a third straight month. within the 2% to 4% target, but higher food costs are starting to weigh in here. annabelle: you mentioned the weakness in the philippine peso. if we continue to have that direction of cuts, that may ease the pressure but when you look at where we are trading now, near the 58 mark, and that does really constrain the actions of the bsp. and more context on that, we are looking at a drop of 4% over the course of the year. it has been asia's

worst-performing currency this quarter. there isn't just the fed dynamic but also territorial tensions between the philippines and china, as well as other things we are tracking. certainly one of the decisions we are tracking today and a big interview tomorrow. haidi: we will be able to talk about the weakness in the currency and whether it is limiting the options of the central bank. straight off the back of the rate decision, we will speak with the bsp governor, eli re molona, at 11:00 a.m. here in sydney. morehead on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> humanity needs to mine about as much copper in the next 25 years as we have mind and last 25,000 years to maintain mobile gdp growth. we are going to dream about energy transition to power these lights, we need to mine the same amount of copper in a short amount of time as we ever have. most of the world's minds have been dried for capital, and we need them to be done in a new way, cleaner and a more sustainable way to mine, a huge challenge that requires a higher

price to stimulate capital investment. haidi: that was the capital founder and chair, speaking to us at the qatar economic forum in doha. across the breadth of trading at record highs from equities to the big moves in currencies, bonds and commodities, that is when we are watching at the moment. this is driven by the copper short squeeze that materialized in new york, being felt across the broader global market, but we are also seen oil dig higher, as well. and their broader risk on move is triggered by the in leash and print signs -- triggered by the print signs, and we are seeing gains that are continuing to get some positivity with the hopes that perhaps we are seeing the bigger support for the property sector coming from beijing. annabelle: but those moves are

underpinned by the dollar weakness in two assets, first, the japanese yen holding onto its advance following the u.s. inflation print, so it is narrowing somewhat, even though we saw those japanese gdp figures contracting 2% on an annualized basis, first quarter, undershooting what economists predicted. the other big market, korea, rallying this morning, leading gains and asian equities so far, taking a look at that advance year to date has been really aided by that purchases by foreign investors, so another market we are tracking as you see the strength of the korean yuan. our coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trade in hong kong. ♪

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