>> it's almost 1 p.m. in 11:00 a.m. in singapore and shanghai. welcome to bloomberg "markets: asia." top stories, inflation reinforcing bets on fed cuts it might come as early as september. major equity benchmark setting records worldwide as treasury yields retreat. china tech earnings on the way with jd.com and baidu results and signs of pressure on profits. and the latest travel trends from mastercard and we report on the industry that is breaking boundaries. a welcome ceremony for russian president vladimir putin. he did arrive in china in the early hours of this morning so he is on his way to beijing where he will meet chinese president xi jinping.

this is an extension of the relationship they signed back in 2022, which happened just before russia launched its invasion of ukraine. this will be the 40th time xi and putin have met since xi jinping first came to power. so just awaiting the russian leaders arrival there. the talks will take place with the chinese president and we will have more on those pictures as soon as something actually happens. but putin is on his way to that welcome ceremony. in the meantime let's look at how markets are faring. a lot of green on the screen today. avril: this is the post u.s. cpi everything rally, whether you're talking about stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, all gaining ground amid those expectations that we will see

fed rate cuts as soon as september. we are hearing some of the fed speakers not sounding terribly convinced. that is worth noting, one economist says the fixation on inflation out of the u.s. seems to be prompting an overreaction to the u.s. cpi print. still we are seeing green, australia's leading the charge. we had some jobless data and a surge on the jobless rate pumping expectations of a rate cut there. even the guinness climbing, despite japan's gdp contracting more than expected. let's flip the board, we are back from the holiday and traders are getting their first chance to react to some of these chinese tech earnings. tencent beat on earnings we sell the lift for sales coming through from the tiktok style services. it was a different story for alibaba.

it was amiss, dragged by investments. the divergence in profits reflected in the stock performance. the big story coming out of china is how those reports show that authorities might actually be mulling a plan for local governments to actually get these unsold homes from distressed developers. so we are seeing the gauge of property developers in hong kong surging about 11%. that is the highest since december. paul: let's take you back to beijing, xi jinping has just made an appearance as he awaits the arrival of russian president vladimir putin who did touch in beijing in the early hours of this morning. the welcome ceremony about to take place. china has been a very important partner for russia since its invasion of ukraine and has

helped russia whether all the u.s. and european sanctions. it's a tricky balance for xi jinping to strike because he still needs access to u.s. markets and needs an ally in russia so a bit of a balancing act for it xi jinping as we await the arrival of vladimir putin and that welcoming ceremony. let's take a closer look at the latest u.s. cpi report, really moving markets today. the headline figure rising slightly less than was expected in core cpi for the first time in six months. it snaps a streak of three above forecast readings. >> inflation is taking its sweet time coming down but we still think it is a downward trend. the big picture on a core basis

is that inflation has come down a lot. >> this to me is a chair who wants to cut. i think if he has the opening he will take two. data like this, if it persists, that will give him that opening. i do think september is possible. >> we need to see more weakening in the data for the fed to begin to gain confidence and get comfortable in terms of beginning to ease rates. >> i don't think we are heading into a higher for longer environment. i think we are heading into a normal for longer environment. paul: our next guest says u.s. disinflation is still sufficient to allow for september rate cut. chief investment strategist at lgt making in asia. let's get straight to the chances of a rate cut. we have a chart that illustrates

the markets now looking at two rate cuts this year. what is your view, and if you agree with this, when do you think the first move might be? >> first of all, in terms of the numbers themselves, it's really not so much about the actual print but the fact that for the first time in what feels like a very long time, it was a little bit better than expected. that's why you get all the celebratory analysis that we just heard from many other guests. for us, we thing september would make the most since. you have this further flight path of dental disinflation taking place in that will open the door for september cut. it's not really about the numbers themselves, it's about the expectation change that happened which is why the markets are in such a good mood today. paul: on-screen is russian president vladimir putin arriving in beijing.

there he is with the chinese president xi jinping greeting various other dignitaries. the russian president will have talks with xi and will visit if other areas while he is in china as well. that welcome ceremony just taking place at the moment. let's get back to our guest, just in terms of what you are saying around expectations for rate cuts, inflation is well, have another chart that shows super core inflation did in fact tick up a little, 4.9 percent. do we need to be a bit mindful here also that even though the fight against inflation might not be over yet, we've had a few false starts before. >> that's right, but we can look at the data from a different perspective, making it into services versus goods. the services side is a little more sticky, but goods inflation, for example the

notorious used cars component, which skyrocketed during the pandemic, that is falling quite sharply. the good side of things is certainly better than services but the overall blend, we need to continue to watch this closely, but september think still makes sense for that first cut. paul: let's talk about the market impact, it certainly was profound. we seen rallies everywhere, u.s. indexes at a record and the joy has spread to asia as well today. the u.s. dollar having its biggest one-day drop this year. do you think this is the start of a trend, and if so, which emerging markets might best stand to benefit? >> i'm not sure we can declare that as a trend, but it's the yen out of all the currencies of the asia back region that we have to focus on.

we think it is far too cheap and represents a major challenge for the bank of japan and the ministry of finance on the ground in tokyo. import inflation for food in japan is extremely high. getting that yen stronger one-way are the other is the only real way that households in japan can still get some relief given what has happened with the major depreciation we have seen so far this year. paul: an easy way to get in strength will be for that boj to continue tightening. but 2% contraction on the year for the quarter, the boj is on the horns of a dilemma. >> it is an exceptionally difficult challenge. for japan it's a tougher road ahead than the ecb of the fed. but bear in mind that potential gdp growth in japan is very low

because there are structural factors. your at a run rate of maybe .5 or a little higher. any given quarter, japan can easily slip into recession. it's not about the gdp story, it's about can the boj be brave enough to move forward and tighten conditions so that the yen appreciates. that is really what has to happen here. paul: thank you so much for joining us with your insights today. let's take you back to beijing, and there you see two best friends, russian president vladimir putin chinese president xi jinping, attending a welcome ceremony, inspecting the troops there. vladimir putin, this is the 40th time he has met his chinese counterparts since xi jinping took power. he will be there for a few days. you will be visiting a northeastern city as well and

taking part in the opening ceremony of the eighth russian and chinese expo. let's bring in our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle for more context. give us a sense of the importance of this visit for both leaders. >> it's definitely important for latimer putin. you said it, they have met more than 40 times since xi jinping took power in 2014. they've been meeting more frequently in the face of the sanctions against russia for its war in ukraine, and increase pressure from washington against beijing to not supply it with dual use technologies that could end up on the battlefield. that is one issue that perhaps these two gentlemen will be talking about because it is no surprise as well that he is bringing along his new defense

chief, who is an economist by trade. he is also bringing along his central bank governor. there is lots of speculation that perhaps i will try to find ways around avoiding the potential u.s. and secondary sanctions on chinese banks. we all know that the russian trade relies on china. a record 240 billion dollars in 2023, more than double that of 2020 of 108 million. latimer couldn't and the russian economy right now absolutely needs china, and china feeling diplomatically isolated as well in the crosshairs of washington's pressure is shoring up that support between these two gentlemen. there is lots to talk about, potentially securing a new deal for the power of siberia

pipeline, they will probably be talking about the viability of the power of siberia to proposed pipeline that would go through mongolia, and again, issues surrounding trade finance through the banks. paul: it's an interesting point you make about vladimir putin bringing his new defense chief, the central bank governors will. if these two countries figure out a way to circumvent u.s. sanctions, there is just a risk that sanctions news could get tighter. >> that's right. i was there in beijing when antony blinken gave a press conference and he said to us gathered there at the u.s. embassy that they reminded beijing again that the potential of sanctions against chinese banks is real, if there is evidence found that state owned

banks in china are helping facilitate the trade of so-called dual use technologies, also semiconductors, ball bearings which are very necessary in the industrial base, but also in a mechanized war, and other dual use technologies that have found their way onto the battlefield. so again, that's why think there will be a lot of discussions in this trip to beijing about potentially using smaller chinese banks that are not necessarily tied us closely to the u.s. financial system as the state owned banks. we did see in data, i mentioned that moscow trade with china reaching $240 billion in 2023, but in the last couple of months, bloomberg data is showing especially in april, we saw chinese exports to russia were down 13% year-over-year. the second month in a row of an

annual decrease in russian media is essentially reporting chinese banks in late march began blocking payments from companies in russia and buying components for electronic assembly. so the two sides could be having serious unanswered dialogue about how to bypass that. so they are not sanctioned. paul: stephen engle there, as we see pictures of that welcoming ceremony for the russian president. he will be in china for two days for talks with xi jinping. still to come, analysis on chinese tech giants ahead. we will discuss why they are expecting strong earnings from jd.com later today. this is bloomberg. ♪

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paul: let's take you back to beijing. there you see presidents of china and russia side-by-side as the welcoming ceremony appears to be wrapping up. vladimir putin arrived in beijing early this morning. he is there for a two day visit, the two countries looking to continue to deepen ties, as we heard from stephen engle a little earlier there. russia's defense chief and central bank governor also there. we're expecting some discussion may be taken place on ways that russia may be able to find workarounds to some of those sanctions imposed the western nations.

there may some risks involved there for china as well. the russian president will also be visiting one region. the two leaders heading inside now. let's get to some other geopolitical news of the day. singapore has a new prime minister. he officially takes the helm of the city state and saying singapore should race for new realities. he says singapore will continue to engage with both the u.s., its largest foreign investor, and also china, his biggest trading partner. >> is a small country, we cannot escape these powerful crosscurrents. as an open economy, our livelihoods will be hit when multilateralism fractures. as a diverse society, we will be vulnerable to external

influences that prompt us in different directions. we must raise our self to these new realities and adapt to it messier, riskier, and more violent world. paul: for more on the new leader, let's bring in our opinion columnist in singapore. the commissioner talking about a messier, more riskier and violent world. what struck you about the speech? >> everything he pointed out in terms of the fact that it's a far more dangerous environment as he takes on this extremely important role, becoming only the fourth prime minister in singapore at a time of real upheaval around the world. i think it is worth pointing out, and i've written about this before in my opinion columns, where we are in an environment that in many ways has mirrored the beginnings of an singapore first started.

overseeing that tumultuous period of singapore separation from malaysia, trying to carve out a niche in the world is an independent nation. at that time, singapore depended on things like globalization and free trade in order for this tiny island going from third world to first. this time around, singapore cannot depend on those friendly forces of globalization anymore. it's a far more fractured global environment and that is precisely what lawrence long as telegraphing as he takes on this road to try to ensure the survival of this nation. paul: in a speech he also pledged to create a just and more equal society. let's have a listen. >> young singaporeans in particular have spoken clearly.

they want a country that is not defined my materials -- by material success alone. i am determined to help singaporeans realize your dreams. we will foster a fairer, more just and more equal society. paul: a lot of our viewers might be familiar with the so-called five c's of singapore, cash, credit, clout, car, and cargo. is that going to be the story going forward? >> not at all. certainly you hear what lawrence wong said, it chimes in with a lot of singaporeans across the spectrum who are saying it is time for a different kind of singapore dream. singapore has sort of grown on the back of this idea that it needs to survive in this very difficult environment, but now it is one of the richest

countries in the world. there is a very good standard of living here economically, but what people are craving is a different way of life, i think it is fair to say. you heard that from what the prime minister was talking about in his speech, moving to perhaps the three c's, cooperation, and in particular, compassion. lawrence wong has talked about the compassion deficit in singapore in the past. that is something he seems very keen to address. my suggestion to him as he takes on this new role and gets settled in would be to not just listen to members of his own cabinet, but also to seek out alternative views, because as tiny a singaporeans, is changing and there are different norms at play here. it would be worth listening to some of those people, perhaps in the opposition as well, and inculcating alternative uses as he moves the country forward into the new era.

paul: our bloomberg opinion columnist there in singapore. other top geopolitical stories we are tracking, the u.s. says it is accelerating arms supplies to ukraine as a country's confronts a rut -- russian assault in the northeast. russian troops are taking control of some villages close to the border. the offensive is stretching ukraine's fortunes and may push redeploying units from the front line to the east. a power vacuum in gaza is urging leaders to focus more on postwar planning. israel's gradual deployment of troops appears to be the start of a full-blown invasion. we have plenty more to come, stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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paul: let's bring a tale of two tech stops -- tech sox, alibaba losing a little it of ground come after fourth quarter profit came in weaker than expected. tintin on the other hand, had a pretty good quarter there is well. we're waiting to hear from baidu and jd.com after the close today. elsewhere we got china property starts doing pretty well, the broader index in shanghai doing pretty well also. more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: welcome back, live pictures of shanghai, china market shows heading to lunch. pretty good day, most markets around the region in positive territory. csi better than -- by .75%. this rally is looking pretty broad-based. avril: it is, and almost everything rallying. it's at fuel from the u.s. cpi print, but on the man land -- on the mainland are getting the added lift on expectations and policy support for the property sector and the gauge of developers in hong kong jumping by 11%, the highest level since december. we are also keeping an eye on tech, earnings have been pretty mixed so far but we will see how the rest of the tech eight perform later today. let's flip the board and take a look on the japan gdp numbers because they contracted more than expected for the first

quarter. this is as consumers and companies cut back on spending. our economist flagged there might be a temporary factor at play here. industrial production reduced as an automaker was forced to idle output given the safety scandals. despite that, were seen an expectation of a boj rate hike. the unions still climbing, let's look at what else is happening in japan. with those bonds climbing, stocks also riding higher. we can fit the board and look at what we are seeing on the stock market, the nikkei is still in the green but you can see how the banks are still coming under pressure. it's the boj narrative, despite the forecast of record profits. automakers also down today on the stronger yen. paul: thanks very much for that. as you mentioned, tech stocks

joining and almost everything rally with one exception's. we are keeping an eye on shares of baidu and jd.com ahead of the earnings releases. bloomberg intelligence believes baidu may post lower due to advertising growth amid competition from short platforms. and jd.com with greater utilization of its logistics assets. our next guest primarily researches logistics stocks. she is a senior equity analyst of morningstar investment analyst asia. want to start with your expectations around jd.com. is there risk here perhaps to cost? it has widened its free delivery service.

what sort of impact might that have? chelsey: i think you're right that there would be some pressure on costs. this year we are expecting net profit on that basis, i don't think it can rise much. in fact it's possible that it will decline. so i think the sheer margins in net profit will definitely see pressure, because jd has to retain customers, and i believe that probably 40% comes from loyal customers at jd, and these people are what jd.com want to retain, at the lower shipping threshold. paul: jd.com along with a lot of other e-commerce names are very reliant on the health of the

chinese consumer. how is that looking to you at the moment? >> absolutely. i think that you can see that there is a bit of pickup and consumption in the discretionary side. according to alibaba, they said there is some green shoots, but i don't think the trend is very certain yet. i believe that anything is going to be slow because i don't think that just like some property release will boost the confidence of consumers. paul: we got shares in jd.com on the up about 16% this quarter. it sounds pretty good but it does like some of its peers. do you have an outlook for the stock price? chelsey: for jd.com, we have a long-term investment horizon. i think jd.com is still a cheap

stock to own. so i think in the long term we are still quite bullish on the properties because i think it's coming off from a tough year last year with restructuring going on. the first quarter will be the first quarter where you will see normalize growth excluding the restructuring efforts. i think we remain buyers for jd.com. paul: you say you have a longer-term look at the stocks and i know you have a target of their value at $96 on alibaba for example. the fourth quarter profitability as i mentioned earlier coming in a bit weaker than expected. how long is it going to take for alibaba to hit their target? chelsey: alibaba -- the reason

is we are encouraged by the double-digit growth, but we really want to see this together with stabilized margin. i think it will take a while. so if we see that and we see improvement and consumption, especially in the discretionary side, where alibaba is stronger, then i think we can see the share price rise toward our fair value of 96. paul: bloomberg has put together a chart which shows alibaba revenue growth compared to some of its peers at 6% in the first quarter. is pretty good, but it is still trailing some of its competitors. what is more important in your

view, is it revenue growth or is it the fight for market share? chelsey: for alibaba, right? honestly, i think it is important for companies to do three things, like i said, revenue growth and margin cannot decline so much. a lot of return back to the shareholders. so i think investors are quite demanding these days. market share i think is important but it depends on how you achieve that. if you just achieved by giving out subsidies, is not sustainable. but if you achieve by lowering what consumers consume, i think, and also offering competitively priced products, these are the

winning recipes. so to achieve market share through that, and then with market share, you can have better line share. then i think tech rate will come naturally. so i think these are the ways how e-commerce companies should work on. paul: i want to quickly get your views on tencent as well, it's having a pretty good day in hong kong, up by about 4.2% right now. what is your outlook for the coming quarters for tencent? cannot sustain this momentum? chelsey: -- paul: we will have to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us. you can find more on the story

and all the days trading on her markets live blog on the bloomberg and you can get a market run down with one click. commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors and find out what is affecting your business right now. ♪

paul: welcome back to bloomberg "markets: asia." you're watching the india focus. let's check in on the premarket session. chinese stocks in india might be set to stall as investors turned her focus back to china's fundamental problems. tell us more about why that rotation trade is fading. >> the net sentiment on china remains positive, but there are a few things from the long-term perspective. earnings were improving in the margin but that case is crumbling again. you can see what tencent and alibaba have delivered in terms of growth, not impressive. earnings estimates for india are going upwards. on valuation, that was a prime

argument for some rotation that started from india to china. if you look at the overall picture on the economy and triggers, india is commanding the world's fastest growing economy in china is mending its economy. in terms of triggers, india is said to have another cycle and china is facing a u.s. election cycle where rhetoric against chinese actors are only going to widen. from a long-term allegation -- allocation perspective, at these levels the risk is not there. don't get me wrong, these are both markets to own, but there is one market, china which is value market in india is a

better route. paul: what does it mean for china's ongoing rebound? >> like i was saying, china has become a market, is portfolio has essentially change. prior to 2019 used to be a bet on growth, but valuations are really cheap. it has started commanding a roll of income and portfolios, so from the perspective of increasing bond flows, the value will widen. u.s. elections are on the horizon. we've seen a lot of rallying, this would get checked if a earnings fell to the liver. so far the first quarter season has not been great. what would turn the tide in the wake of the u.s. and the european union going against

china, that is hard to imagine. even as the risk remains on the upside. paul: our asian equities reporter there, thanks for joining us. let's take a quick look at some stories making headlines in india. the trade deficit widens as strong to mystic demand bumped up, the trade ministry figures show a gap between exports and imports totaled more than $19 billion, topping forecasts. imports rose on higher inbound shipments of gold and electronics. bloomberg has learned of real estate joint venture to elicit property trusts backed by the canadian investment giant. sources say the deal may value the deal at around $750 million. into real estate trust is also set to pay for the state by

issuing new units to the party. we are just seconds away from the open in india. went to spate we see the rally extending to indian markets as well off the back of that cpi print we had out of the u.s. a little earlier. that came in a bit softer than anticipated on the quarterly read at least. there are some signs that core inflation remain sticky but it was enough to spark pretty much in everything rally across the asia pacific. if you look at futures for the india premarket, they are in positive territory as well. one particular side issue that could throw a wrench into the works is the ongoing election. signs are that voter turnout is not everything the incumbent thought it might be. india opening for trade now and

as perhaps of expected, seeing a pretty reasonable bounce to the upside. the benchmark's insects up about .4% in the first few seconds -- benchmark and the's insects -- sensex up .4%. the dollar is down against most currencies at the moment. do stay with us, we have more on the markets in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: a look at some of the top corporate stories, bloomberg has learned that hsbc is looking to appoint his next ceo from a short list of internal candidates. there are leading replacements for noel quinn. hsbc has engage in external recruitment firm for external candidates for the role. the takeover saga is expected to continue. i've told bloomberg there's room for a third entry. both previous approaches were rejected so far.

paramount is said to have had discussions with amazon about a spending ties between their media businesses. paramount has been struggling with falling ad sales, money-losing streaming business and takeover offers from david ellison as well as apollo global management. singapore outlines said to be reporting a consecutive -- 7 -- second consecutive report. it says demand for lots remains healthy, citing robust appetite for travel and the cargo sector. the global travel sectors breaking boundaries in 2024, according to mastercard economics institute. consumer spending and tourism remains robust. passenger traffic is soaring as well. the annual travel trends report shows japan welcomed

record-breaking arrivals in march while outbound travel from china recovers and more indians are traveling that at any time in history. for more on how this is impacting some of the region's largest economies, were joyed -- joined by david mann. thanks so much for joining us. let's start with japan, topping the trending list, it is a notoriously expensive destination unless the end is really weak, which has been for a while. how much of that responsibility and you park at the door, and can japan retain its top spot? >> first, thanks very much for having me back on. it's great to be here today to talk about the travel report. certainly your point about the relatively weak yen, and it is very weak against almost any other major currency that we look at, that is a big factor in helping to drive up the strength of the inbound tourism into

japan over the last year, and actually because they give after the moves of the last couple of days has gotten a bit stronger, compared to where it has been over the last few years, that very attractive exchange rate does make japan a relatively cheaper option and more attractive destination for those travelers where the exchange rate has moved even more in their favor. for example from singapore from the united states, there is a major gain that can be had from going there. the other big thing i would notice that of all the big travelers destinations around the world, of course it is all about the experiences. in the case of japan, we are seeing not just the strength of travelers coming in for the experiences and fine dining, but they are heading to the shops, too, when it is a relatively cheap destination as it has now become. that is quite different to the broader trend of global travel that is been more biased toward experiences spending over the usual retail therapy that had been available all the way

through the pandemic period. paul: so talking about experiences, what sorts of experiences are travelers looking for? >> of the big ones, the once we've looked into quite a bit has been various concert events. for example, the taylor swift concerts in singapore through a major spike into the amount of cross-border tourism. the experiences of going skiing or dining, that has been a big part of the experiences spending numbers when we look into the details, and going somewhere like japan, famous for being so good on the cuisine front. and a nice destination to cool off if you are in somewhere that is as tropical singapore, that's been making a big difference, especially when the price is right alongside that. compared to 2019, there has been an extended duration of the

average trip by around one day extra worldwide. it has been slightly more gains in the average duration of trip in where the prices of those destinations have not risen this much paired to places where they have risen a lot more. more potential for more spinning as people spent longer traveling, compared to the more expensive destinations where they have raise prices a lot more, they have not gained as much. even those that raise prices have seen an impact of travelers staying for a bit longer. paul: in terms of extending trips, how much of that do you think is a function of the fact that not all air ticket prices are quite back to where they were pre-pandemic? >> there certainly is a rover that as people prioritize travel. once you are there, make the most of it. there could be some element of

hybrid work playing a role in this as well. that is to write with thinking about it, we've seen this increase and it could be making the most of those trips. there's been an accumulation of excess savings that we think is being used up by a lot of these travelers. the affluent consumers have been much more dominant on average than the spending power of folks on the airplanes trying out for international trips to date is probably higher than it would've been if we go back to the pre-pandemic air a. in places like australia we've seen a big difference between affluent consumers versus mass-market consumers. most likely comes down to a lot more of the domestic trips being an attractive all tournament -- alternative when cross-country is relatively expensive. paul: i want to talk about the specific findings in terms of chinese tourists. demand is recovering. where are at in terms of domestic and outbound chinese

tourism? >> the domestic tourism story picked up and fully recovered as of about a year ago. the international side is still about 20% below the passenger volume levels we were at in 2019. we think we will get there, most likely by the end of this year. it has been a little bit slower. in the meantime, while we are waiting for that to happen, what we have seen is been a major pickup in the other populist consumer market in the region and globally, which is india, where we are seeing more indians traveling in general that we have seen any time in history. 2024 has seen more travelers than you would've seen for a full year only 10 years ago. with the growth of the middle class there, 20 million more we think will be added to the population of middle-class in

india over the next five years. the demand-side is very strong and we think it will be a long-term story. but we might become -- comparing india to china as the most dominant spenders in this region or even globally at some point. paul: thanks so much for joining us, david mann of mastercard. that's a good out markets are trading at the moment. we will look at the yields on the 10 year, that is slipping down to 4.31 at the moment. it looks like everything rallied . here in asia we are seeing pre-much every sector, every stock in positive territory. that is it from bloomberg "markets: asia." horizons middle east and africa is up next. ♪

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