>> we are getting closer to a point where we might see cuts this year. >> looking for easing now to september. >> the fed put is still alive and well. >> it is just inflation hanging out where it is that i think they keep postponing. >> we all talk about wanting to go back to 2%. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: let's get your week started.

live from new york city, good morning. what a week ahead. nobody earnings two days away. coming into monday -- nvidia earnings two days away. we are picking up on the sent of capitulation at morgan stanley. mike wilson has a new year end price target, 5400. the old price target, 4500. a wider range of outcomes and opportunities. lisa: he talked about the fact it is getting harder and harder to have any broad assumption where the market is headed. a lot of analysts have been head fake by a lot of different cycles that are overlapping and prolonging this recovery. annmarie: -- jonathan: mike wilson will catch up with us tomorrow morning. that follows deutsche bank lifting the 2024 forecast. looking for 5500 year end.

annmarie: i think the biggest data point we will get this week that will decide the direction in the short term is going to be nvidia. going back to morgan stanley, "macro outcomes have been in, increasingly difficult to predict as data has become more volatile." that is the theme on the show. everyone is finding it difficult to say where we are in this cycle and where we are going. jonathan: you mentioned the data point of the week is nvidia. the second division from u.s. data is the quote from kitt jukes, existing home sales, durable goods, second-tier data. we are light on fed speak. all in the next 24 hours. looking forward to some of this. lisa: over this week we have williams as well as a host of others from the ecb. chris wallace might be the most

interesting because he will be talking about the long-term idea of inflation. that is where they have to go. right now they are talking about data dependency. this has become a confusing moment that mike wilson has been grappling with. jonathan: they seem reluctant to talk about what normal is. hopefully they entertain that idea. here the scores on the s&p 500. positive .1%. yields unchanged. in foreign-exchange, 1.0 870 into a week full of second-tier data. lisa: second-tier data and second-tier central banks. the ecb speak will come out and we talk about what is going on with the euro and the idea of the ecb pushing back expectations. wednesday is the big day because we get fit meeting minutes.

we get 20 year bonds being auctioned off. nvidia, i want to put this stat out, 12 months ago nvidia's share price climbed 20% on the result. since that day it has tripled in value. this is a stock that can change the dynamic. to meet wednesday will be the key moment in nvidia can be a much bigger driver. jonathan: jim reed of deutsche bank said the same thing. coming up we'll catch up with steve chevron of federated. terry haines on the death of iran's president and abigail watt of ubs. equities building. steve chevron saying the word is fine. economic data has come in slower but find, inflation is stick here and higher but find, it all combines to keep our base case

scenario and play. an economy that remain stable and rate cuts that eventually come. everything is fine, is that a good thing? steve: you have a wall street that is waiting for something to break hard in one direction and everything is fine. inflation is grinding slowly lower and growth is also softening. it is fine. it is a fine environment for bonds, for cash, a fine environment for stocks. jonathan: is it fine that you have a lot of company? steve: that makes us nervous. when we came out with a 5200 target for this year that was the high on the street and it is not anymore. you start to ask yourself a question. will any of these things break harder than you expect? will growth slow more than you think? i hate to say it but right now it is fine.

it is moving in the direction accepted. lisa: things are not fine for red lobster. things are not fine for a number of companies that are struggling with higher costs, fixed leases, the idea of labor that has going on. is everything fine at the index level but does it justify expanding into last loved areas or do you stay with that just fine along with everyone else consensus? steve: quality matters because you have rates that are higher for longer. that will put pressure on weaker credit and weaker companies. slowing growth does the same. you see the same thing on the low end of the consumer. it is fine at an aggregate level but there is pressure the weakest players will have a harder time with standing. as an investor you have to make sure you are buying quality, higher-quality credit, better balance sheets, better cash flows. there will be weakness and volatility. lisa: are you just looking at

portfolios in saying that is fine and checking out? steve: no. what we are doing is questioning ourselves. because so many people have moved to a bullish positioning and it is less lonely up here, we are questioning the assumptions. when you look at the retail sales number last week, is that softer is that a sign of real consumer stress? credit spreads, we are watching those on a weekly basis. two or three weeks ago they look like they were moving higher but they have gone back down. we are constantly questioning these assumptions. nothing is violating it. what we are in is an old normal expansion where it is higher rates, higher growth, higher inflation. that is enough for equity markets to grind higher. annmarie: one or two cuts this year or maintain?

steve: we are more towards the one. certainly the retail sales number and the jobs number puts two back and play. generally speaking we think it is one or two. i think the gulf between one or zero is huge. the market will start to price in the cycle. annmarie: what is the data you need to see to put two before the election in place? steve: it is labor market. june is probably not in play. that leaves july. i have to imagine they would like to avoid september, november if they can. the idea of july or december, but certainly december. jonathan: let's go through some quotes on the sales side. this bigger and not tighter economy allows the fed to start cutting rates in september. what you make of that quote?

the baker and not tighter economy allows the fed to start cutting rates in september. you share that view of the way the economy is performing? steve: you have to be careful with inflation. once you get past june or july the year-over-year comps get difficult. we are still running about 4% annually. three is top. jonathan: is why inflation will come down. peter tchir, "if inflation continues to come down it will likely be tied to a weakening economy which should be good for bonds but not so good for stocks." it is working out why inflation will come down from 2% towards that 3%. lisa: people are thinking how much will we see -- or are we still looking at lag effects from the pandemic? what i find interesting, and bank of america really went through this, this idea of a very loose fiscal policy with a

restrictive monetary policy. if you have fiscal policy that starts to lighten -- that starts to tighten, then what happens with monetary policy and does that ignite weakness? this goes to the heart of the uncertainty of the moment is we do not understand the crosswinds of policies that are on on -- that are at odds with one another. jonathan: final word on that? steve: i think that's right. you have a former fed chair running a monetary policy that is very different than the current fed chair. we might want to think about getting the same thing for having the fed chair run treasury. you have competing monetary policies coming out of there. i think the stimulus you have seen has boosted small business, the consumer, the inflation impulse, and is why so many people looking at this from a macro perspective have had a tough time over the last months. jonathan: you have some company.

it is great to see you. equities at the moment just about positive .1% on the s&p 500. with news elsewhere, here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: president biden came face-to-face with campus protests this weekend. the president gave a campus speech at the historically black morehouse college and said he is working around-the-clock to get more humanitarian aid into gaza. students and at least two faculty members showed solidarity with the palestinians. recent polling showed significant numbers of young and black voters disapprove president biden support for israel. nippon steel is gearing up for its takeover of u.s. steel, going to pittsburgh this week to meet with global staff and elected officials and is sending technical teams to review u.s. steel mills, hoping to find ways

to boost investment and labor commissions to went over union leaders. -- to win over union leaders. a birdie on the final hole was enough for zander shop late to clinch his golf title. he finished with a record 21 underpar. after being arrested before play on friday -- scottie scheffler finished in a tie for eighth. jonathan: congratulations. a fantastic performance from start to finish for the weekend. coming up, i ran's president killed in a helicopter crash. >> a shocking event in one of the most important countries in the region but the immediate geopolitical implications may be quite limited, assuming iran does not blame outside countries or forces for this. jonathan: the latest out of the region coming up next.

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the answer is j.p. morgan wealth management. jonathan: live from new york city come equity futures on the s&p 500 positive .1%. just about unchanged on the 10 year. in the commodity market down half of 1%. iran's president killed in a helicopter crash. >> a shocking event in one of the most important countries in the region but the immediate geopolitical implications may be quite limited, assuming iran does not blame outside countries or forces for this death. there on lengthy to significantly -- they are unlikely to significantly change iran's foreign parsley but it is -- iran's foreign policy but it

is early days in terms of the blame game. jonathan: iran's news agencies have confirmed the president and foreign minister have died in a helicopter crash. the chopper went down on sunday in an area covered with dense fog. bloomberg's africa and middle east anchor joins us for now. talk to us about the latest coming out of the country. >> it took us a while to get full details of what happened. late in the evening iranian state tb confirmed the president had been involved in a quote unquote hard landing situation. it took a while for rescuers to reach the site of the clan -- the site of the crash. only after 6:00 this morning did they get access to the site. only then did they confirm the president and the foreign minister were two of the nine passengers on the helicopter. all of them died in the crash.

shortly afterwards five days of mourning were declared in the country. what is happening in terms of who takes over, the vice president will take over tentatively as a transitional president, but as for the procedure, the country needs to hold another round of presidential elections within 50 days. it should be stressed that ultimately the decision maker the country, the ultimate power still lies with the supreme leader. he was quick to put out a statement saying there will be no disruption in the country's affairs, even if it is confirmed the president had died. it did emerge the president was killed in a helicopter attack. it was a shocking sequence of event for the country, but the messaging from the supreme leader is it is business as usual.

the public may see it differently because the backdrop is iran is undergoing a deep economic shock, inflation running closer to 35%, and they are being weighed down by the sanctions i'd to the country right now. annmarie: when it comes to the supreme leader and the ayatollah, he was an official that would be a top contender. where does it leave that succession because the ayatollah is 85 years old? joumanna: that is the question. the pathway to becoming the supreme leader is becoming president. the assumption from the outside world is the president was on that pathway. he was seen as being close to the ayatollah. he was seen as a conduit for many of the conservative fundamentalist policies the ayatollah wanted to apply. it leaves one person in mind, the ayatollah's son as potentially the next person who

could take over. it comes down to what the clerics within the iranian guardian council want to happen. this raises questions about the upcoming presidential elections in which of the candidates will be vetted by the guardian council in order to run for presidential elections. in 2021 there were no other people who were allowed to run against him. the turnout was low. only 50%. who they decide to run as candidates could be a reflection of how they are thinking about a potential successor to the supreme leader. jonathan: appreciate the update on the latest in the region. terry haines joins us now. let's talk about your reaction to what took place over the weekend. terry: in addition to what she already said i would add only that geopolitical risk is elevated further by these deaths. but that the impact could be

quite limited because in the iranian system what matters the most is the supreme leader first, and secondly the proxies are generally run by the irgc and not directly by the president. in terms of iran's outer facing activities, i would expect that to be virtually unaffected. lisa: there is a question of can you walk and chew gum at the same time for a number of countries in a very fraught region given the fact you will be trying to come up with a new president and potentially hold elections in 50 days in iran at the same time there is huge dissent in israel given what is going on with the war plan or lack thereof. how do you see this wrinkle as affecting what is going on right now and the tensions between iranian backed groups and israel? terry: it will make iran double

down on its own stance for the next couple of months. you point out the 50 day bogie in terms of a new election is very important. they will go out of their way to show that it is basically business as usual. at the same time you have a crisis in israel's government. many senior figures in the government and the effective deputy saying they need to see something from the government sooner rather than later by early june about a plan to deal with gaza postwar. you are looking at a situation where for the next very few weeks the puzzle pieces are thrown up in the air more than they normally are. annmarie: we see this administration have to spend a lot more time in the middle east than they plan to coming in. we have jake sullivan in saudi

arabia and israel over the weekend. any signals from those trips they are closer to striking a defense security pact between saudi arabia and the united states or even normalization with israel? terry: the fact they are over there a lot says positive things about the possibility of that. it is very much in the administrations interest to want to put that together. benjamin netanyahu thought, the saudis thought, even before the war started, that they were down the track on this. i expect them to redouble their efforts. the physical presence of the united states officials makes that clear. it is very much in the united states interest to make sure that happens. annmarie: your note over the weekend is talking about the election and debates coming up.

with foreign policy continuing to be top of the headlines every single day, how much will the debates focus on that and who do you think the voters give her credit to when it comes to foreign affairs? terry: i think the debates will feature foreign policy rather more than most people expect. the buzz in washington is domestic issues take over. that is very much on top of voters minds. at the same time, one of biden's top pitches is he is working hard to create a safer world. one of trump's top pitches is that biden's actions have contributed to making the world more dangerous. i would expect it to be a bigger piece of the debate that most people do. jonathan: can we finish on your base case in november and whether your confidence levels have gotten greater or worse? terry: my base case remains that

the president is reelected, barely. what we end up with is a split congress. that means continued not attention to debt and deficits but a largely unified foreign policy. that said, my faith and that gets a little bit narrower most days. jonathan: why is that? terry: too many issues. a lot of it is beyond the white house control. at the same time, the fundamental issue to this election is not any of those issues. it is whether the president has still got it, whether or not the cognitive issues are real or not. he will have to demonstrate that and continue to demonstrate that. what the attorney general did last week in taking a nonprivileged conversation in trying to assert executive

privilege shows you how sensitive the white house is to that and it can validate it. jonathan: hypersensitive. terry haines of pangea policy. the latest polls are not great. arizona. annmarie: arizona and florida. the issue is abortion will be on the balance for democrats. when it comes to arizona and florida, we are seeing there is more concern about inflation, the economy, immigration. jonathan: how does he turn that around between now and november? lisa: i don't think anyone knows . i think he is hoping the debates will do something to draw contrast with former president trump. in nbc news survey last month found that interest in the election is at an all-time low back to 2012 and had declined since september. people are looking at this and getting less and less interested in more and more disconnected. jonathan: the hope for the president is as we get closer to

november to become more interested and lean towards him which is one of the reasons they were pushing to get the first debate in early june. annmarie: they wanted to come back into the households of the american people and remind the american people of some of the rhetoric you saw a lot of independents have issue with when it came to the former president so they will move up that debate because the numbers are showing biden has to get out in the public and make his pitch. jonathan: that is the latest on washington and the middle east. coming up, big moves in the commodity market. gold and copper surging to all-time highs. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: equity futures positive to kick things off monday morning. on the nasdaq we are positive .2 following four weeks of gains on the s&p on the nasdaq and the russell. price target upgrade coming out of barclays this morning. 1100 from 850. all signs point to another revision higher. how many revisions higher have we had from nvidia? lisa: that is why we have seen its valuation triple in the last year. this is been a moonshot and it will direct the approach of the

market and the tone of the market. what you have seen under the hood is some of the big tech names regain dominance but you have not seen the momentum trades take off. there has been a shift under the hood. jonathan: nvidia up in the premarket around 1%. let's turn to the bond market. 10 year yields down three consecutive weeks. we have been pulling back. your 10 year 4.4179. on the two year 4.8180. lighter economic data. amh all nvidia the data point of the week. lisa: the fact that people are talking about the fed minutes from the may 1 meeting is all you need to know, that is the big data point. i think nvidia will be better than that. there is a real question of how far the goldilocks can go and whether the softer than expected prints economically and the citigroup economic supply index that has been falling, whether

that speaks to true disinflation or whether this is another head fake. that is in agreement you can feel and all the notes over the weekend. people are not on the same page. jonathan: lisa mentioned the surprise index. take the data relative to the dollar -- last week on the euro, the currency pair, the biggest gain since march. 1.0 874. lisa: maybe the disinflation is coming back and you have an european central bank were even the hawks are talking about the potential for the june rate cut. how many notes did you read talking about emerging markets as this new bet? a lot of crosswinds. early days. i think kit jukes solidifies it where he is saying every day do not get too excited. it will not get exciting. jonathan: it is a challenge to peak exceptionalism. peter tchir of academy security

has been fantastic at that. top stories. out of iran, the president killed in a helicopter crash sunday. his death was announced by state media early this morning. he was widely seen as a candidate to become the next supreme leader. we are working out who is next. annmarie: that is the big question. it is less who takes over as the president and more in line who is the next supreme leader which is the decision-making power within iran. the thinking was always between raisi and the ayatollahs son. it seems like the one individual who can take over for the ayatollah, who is 85, is his son. iran never wanted this to happen. they overthrew a monarch and then they are going back to that. jonathan: that is the medium to long-term.

can we talk about the short-term? whoever sees the military will not be affected. it will be 50 days before we get an election? annmarie: if you look at the iridium constitution, the ayatollahs that we will follow this. we will have a caretaker government and that in 50 days call for the election. you had raisi standing alone in that election. and "election" will be taking place the next 50 days. jonathan: here in the united states focus on the central bank in the federal reserve. plenty of fed speak on tap. we will also get the fed minutes as well. weekly jobless claims and the umiss consumer sentiment survey. when you are light on data you run the risk of putting too much emphasis on the data we do get and that data is very light.

lisa: the fact that you said university of michigan sentiment survey. it is shifting from 100% phone two 100% online. if you thought it was unreliable before, it might be more so. i think ongoing commentary from the likes of macy's and lows and target this week, even though those are second-tier names and second-tier data points will give us color in the consumer following on what we heard from walmart and whether the downshifting that walmarts's gain as everybody else's loss. annmarie: michael gapen is talking about the minutes being important. potentially we get more insight into what they were thinking. jonathan: i'm always wondering how much more dovish chariman powell is on the fomc. lisa: every single time there is

a fed meeting everyone says this is jay powell's chance to push back against the market and tighten financial conditions and every time he cannot help but do a dove. he cannot help but be a little bit more on the dovish side and that speaks to your point. is he more on the extreme dovish side where he wants to nail the soft landing and solidify his legacy on achieving what a lot of people thought was impossible? jonathan: he has one gear and he is stuck in it. lisa: maybe. maybe he has other gears. jonathan: let's see if he has any. gold and copper surging to all-time highs. extending a months long rally driven by expected supply shortages and gold hitting a record high boosted by increasing optimism. the federal reserve will start using monetary policy. let's talk about copper first and that we can talk about the broader commodity complex.

what is happening with copper? how much of this is just speculative and how much israel fundamentals driven by a lot of demand and not much supply? >> copper has been a darling for a while. a lot of reasons hedge funds, mining companies have been talking up the bullish fundamental stories of copper. that has slowly been gaining interest in you start to see more speculative money coming in. we are seeing a huge influx of investor money coming in. the long-term fundamentals are still yet to be born out. the momentum is getting out and now you have the momentum and the systematic coming in so i think it has become a frenzy right now. jonathan: basic -- lisa: basically right now the momentum has further to go but fundamentally things have not changed.

even if things are good they might not be as good as some of the speculation is driving. am i characterizing that correctly? kona: the story about mining issues is not enough as it should be happening considering how big the demand for metals is expected to be. that will happen in the future. today the story is still china where demand is lackluster. there is a lot of demand for the new economies. that sort of thing is boosting. in terms of real estate, that demand is still lackluster. premiums in china are still very weak. i think short-term it is more about the investor frenzy in anticipation of the longer-term fundamentals. lisa: our columnist put out a great column that i recommend everybody read. i wonder if there is a similarity between what is going on in copper and what is going on with gold, hitting yet another record and continuing to

climb. is it the same tenor in terms of what is driving people to these metals or is it different? is there something more sustainable in one versus the other? kona: gold is definitely a bet on the fact that the fed is likely to cut interest rates this year. that is weakening the u.s. dollar and lifts all commodities. those are the things commented copper and gold. gold is benefiting from safe haven demand given the fact of the iranian president dying and ongoing geopolitical tensions around the world. that is definitely boosting gold. going forward, i think gold has hired to go, particularly if you are a dollar bear and you would be a dollar bear if you think interest rates will keep weakening. i do not think the fed needs to cut interest rates. i think the u.s. economy is running hot so i think they can hold. i think it we start getting data

coming out of the u.s. economy suggesting it is still very hot and therefore the fed may have to delay it, i think that could then weaken the gold rally to a certain extent. going forward, i think geopolitical tensions are here to stay. that could be supportive. i think copper has the environmental story and supply-side in response. that is potentially supporting copper. annmarie: how much do you think the gold rally has been down to u.s. sanctions policy? kona: could you repeat that? annmarie: how much you put credence that there is a rally in gold due to u.s. sanctions policy and the concern not be able to trade in the u.s. dollar? kona: that is a tricky one. i think ultimately sanctions, policy, geo policy, they all have an impact.

gold will always be a good bet as a hedge against any of these uncertainties. i think to a certain extent that does have an impact. i think today it is still in the short-term the dollar dollars expected to weaken and i think central bank buying is definitely going to support gold prices. fundamentally it is more of a currency compared to other different commodities. high demand fundamentals are not something you can use as gold. it is your view on the geopolitical situation right now. jonathan: appreciate your time. big moves in the commodity market. update to guidance coming from j.p. morgan ahead of their annual investor day. at 91 billion u.s. dollars. they had seen previously 90 billion u.s. dollars.

let's go through the premarket price action and look at the stock. positive .6%. lisa: they also talk about a $1 billion increase in their total cost, and that is because of a donation they made to the j.p. morgan chase foundation at a time they are increasing revenues. there is also the line that tailwinds from 2023 are likely turning to headwinds and i wonder how much that has to do with some of the extra interest they have to pay depositors to keep some of their money. we have gotten a lot of messages from our respective banks saying by the way, i can offer you this savings rate, i can offer you this cd. the pace i've been getting them is significant. how much has that become a bite into how much they can capitalize on higher rates? jonathan: will they do the thing that annoys me where they set a target for how much you need to have in your account you get a bonus. a cash bonus for keeping it there. lisa: you mean if you have an

amount that is way over the fdic's limit? basically get an extra $2000. jonathan: awesome, great. tom would always talk about a toaster. lisa: that was the thing in the 1980's. i got stickers when i open my first account at age 11. jonathan: i am sure you would prefer 5%. lisa: at that point stickers were just fine. jonathan: here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: morgan stanley's mike wilson now sees the s&p up 2% by next year, boosting his target to 5400. wilson and the morgan stanley team said they expect us on a macro environment but wilson did reiterate his view that outcomes are becoming harder to predict. he said last week he was steering clear of big calls given the economic uncertainty. mike wilson will be joining the

surveillance team and 8:00 eastern tomorrow. the ship that destroyed baltimore's francis scott key bridge is said to be removed to nearby docs today. 18 hours of preparation began yesterday. officials will be using several tugboats in a so-called reef loading operation expected to take 21 hours. transit begins at high tide. it crashed into the bridge march 26. manchester city were crowned champions of the premier league for a record fourth consecutive year. it was a 3-1 win. it is the 17th trophy for the manager at manchester city and that could become 18 next weekend when they meet the crosstown rival manchester united. that is your bloomberg brief. jonathan: i say it through gritted teeth, congratulations manchester.

clip this for next year or the year after. lisa: doesn't it get boring? jonathan: someone tweeted what u.s. franchise would you compare this to? lisa: the new york mets. annmarie: the mets,,. jonathan: they all missed that lance armstrong reference. lisa: i get it. they are doping. jonathan: up next, rethinking 2%. >> we talk about wanting to go back to 2%. every quote assumes 2% is the inflation target. jonathan: that is next. live from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ [busy hospital background sounds] this healthcare network uses crowdstrike to defend against cyber attacks and protect patient information. but what if they didn't? [ominous background sounds] this is what it feels like when cyber criminals breach your network. don't risk the health of your business.

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not stop in the commercial break and it was just as dreadful in the commercial break as it was life. lisa: it was not dreadful. jonathan: it was pretty bad. yields unchanged on the 10 year. 4.4179. under surveillance, rethinking 2%. >> we talk about wanting to go back to 2%. every single 2% -- we should realize that if we pursuant the wrong inflation target there is a risk of a mistake and that mistake mean sacrificing growth unnecessarily. jonathan: 20 of fed speak on deck, including barr, waller, jefferson and raphael bostic sitting down with michael mckee. ubs reading "we expect the general message remains of needing to wait longer than

previously assumed before beginning to dial back restrictiveness.." abigail joins us for more. what are you looking for from fed officials as they communicate from the general public? abigail: the main thing this week is thinking about the speeches where the fed speakers will be talking about the economic outlook and those speakers are in the board of governors. we have vice chair jefferson speaking today and he will be speaking on the economic outlook and on house prices and then we will have governor waller speaking on the economic outlook on tuesday. i think the way fomc members are digesting some of the better news they saw in the april inflation data last week and how they are balancing that versus some of the disappointment they have referenced through q1 inflation data. also of note be governor

waller's speech on friday in which he will be talking about rstar. we have talked about this idea the fed is operating as a short run rstar has increased and governor waller has sounded skeptical on this. we'll be looking for those comments friday as well. jonathan: let's talk about the data. kit jukes calling it second division data. how much attention does something like umich consumer confidence numbers, how much weight or how much focus does that deserve? abigail: i think there are a couple of date releases that i would watch. maybe not as in focus because they are slightly more lagged. we will be getting the data for q4. i think we have been seeing a

different strength in terms of the employment growth versus nonfarm payrolls with that running a little bit slower. i think that is one thing we will be looking out for. there is also the quarterly services survey. obviously these are quarterly surveys. the quarterly services survey will impact into the services spending estimates in the q1 revisions next week. in light of some of the weakness we saw in last week's retail sales data i think it is worth watching to see whether there are any kind of revisions coming through the pipeline on the services side of spending as well. as you say, university of michigan will get the final release from the survey later this week. one of the things people are watching in the preliminary release was the inflation expectation series and we did see them a little bit higher. i think one thing we will be watching is how do we see that example of risk pulling into that data is whether we see any

revisions on the inflations expectations side. those are the key things i would be watching on the data side. jonathan: there's another -- lisa: another key thing i am watching is the price of copper and gold. you've been talking about the weakness we've been seeing in manufacturing. how do you pair that with one away prices in copper and gold. abigail: it is a good point around the strength of the manufacturing sector. if we look at the hard economic data, the initial production data last week were fairly weak. looking what is coming this week , we will get the s&p global manufacturing pmi. our expectation is we see that back down into contraction. we have seen the softer survey measures and also the harder industrial production data coming in weaker in general in the manufacturing sector. from an economic perspective

that is what we have seen in terms of the hard data on the manufacturing sector. we continue to see weakness in that in the surveys we get on the manufacturing sector this week. lisa: we kicked off the show with steve saying everything is fine, data fine, economic activity, find. you say you are fine when you do not want to get into all of the details. does that work for you, that things are just fine commend if that is the case how long can things be fine? abigail: our expectation is we do see growth slow through this year. i think it is when you are coming off some of the resilience and the strength you saw. 3.1% annual growth last year it was a strong growth out-earn in the u.s.. some of that moderation in the pace of growth is probably what you are getting there. it is more of a slowing in the economic outlook that is coming

through there. i think you're coming off a very strong growth prints so that is what you are seeing. more they moderation back down towards the normal paces of growth rather than some of the booming print we saw last year. the same on the labor market. we are seeing a slowing in the labor market. i think it is a slowing in some of the momentum we saw given the strength you are coming from. lisa: on the heels of a lot of -- annmarie: on the heels of a lot of consumer sentiment showing consumers are concerned, what you make of the state of the u.s. consumer? abigail: we have been looking to see the upper end of the income distribution and the lower end. you are seeing the balance sheet of those at the upper end holding up fairly well despite the fed hiking cycle. you are seeing at the lower end, you are starting to see signs of stress.

recently we got the new york fed consumer debt credit panel and and that we saw delinquencies continue to rise and surpassing rates seen at the end of 2019 for credit cards and auto loans. when we look at the distribution of who contributes the most to spending in the u.s. economy it is the upper end of the income distribution, and we look at who contributes to the growth, it is the upper end. one of the reasons we are still expecting the consumer to slow -- we have had to mark up our expectations on the back of that resilience in the upper end of the income spectrum. jonathan: do you think there are contradictions between what the companies are telling us in what we are seeing in the data? abigail: it is very difficult to get a clear read. i think it is important to focus on some of the distributional effects. that is something you can miss if you look at the headline.

a good example of that is if you look at overall delinquencies. they are sitting well below where they were in 2019. that is very much depressed by student loan repayments. and, to a degree, mortgages. it masks some of the stress you might see in the consumer sector. jonathan: abigail watt there of ubs. to break down the consumer, ask a bank, ask the company, look at the data. there seem to be contradictions between the three. lisa: this is the reason why it has been complicated and mike wilson has been saying it is very difficult to get the macroenvironment as he shifts to a more bullish stance. jonathan: upgrade from mike wilson making headlines. coming up next, we will catch up with stuart kaiser of citigroup,

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>> it is the lower end of the income distribution that is having a hard time. >> these delinquency issues could make the group more sensitive. >> the markets will be willing to withstand that confidence. >> seems to be a growth slowdown is a further risk.

>> this is bloomberg surveillance with jonathan ferro , lisa abramowicz and annmarie hordern. jonathan: good morning. positive by 0.1%. let's get you set up for the week ahead. nvidia after the close, the main event. here is the next 24 hours. 7:30 eastern time. lisa: how will they interpret the weakness that we have seen? are they being more tepid about it? we need a couple more months. more interesting will be friday. i know people i thinking, and i really going to care about that? the idea of embracing longer expectations. jonathan: everything is fine.

could it be better than now? lisa: if you say, how you doing and they say fine, does that leave you said friday? d feel like you understand how they are doing in any way, shape or form? they do not want to talk about their feelings. it leaves you hunting for more. annmarie: not a lot of conviction in fine. since the beginning of 2023, they have balance between hard landing, soft landing and the landing outcomes jonathan:. with thing -- outcomes. jonathan: all the news over the past few months has been about upside inflation surprises. fine is good right now, which is what was trying to be communicated.

lisa: fine is not good enough. one if i missing? right now we are looking at a situation that could potentially turn. you could have the wrong kind of inflation. jonathan: sometimes you have to worry about upside risk. this is what morgan stanley has to say following an upgrade. a sunny macro environment. a clear path over the next few months since a very constructive outlook. lisa: how much depends on fiscal spending? i do wonder if we are really ok, if you get the same kind in the initial jobless claims. i understand things are looking pretty good. we still have to go back to that. why are you seeing certain

cracks in certain segments of the population? annmarie: part of it is that it is hard to explain that the rate of inflation is coming down by the price is not going back. 5500. the ending cycle has plenty of legs. jonathan: the one thing that got steve nervous is that a lot of people agree with him. >> i said what are you doing with fine? i just wonder if he said, i am actually getting nervous and questioning my theory because it does not file something sticky. jonathan: stuart will join us in a moment. equity futures positive by 0.1%. look out for four weeks of gains.

looking forward to catching up with ed on the latest in the middle east. we begin with our top story kicking off the week with all eyes on nvidia. markets will be captivated by nvidia earnings. there are about two weeks without clear catalysts. both outperformed the s&p by about 200 basis points between nvidia earnings and the march cpi report. we like positioning for a similar pattern. two weeks of data. is it a good thing? >> this time, there is a two-week window. do people trim some risk? or is it everything is fine and dandy?

i think you can kind of drift higher. our view is strong earnings season. it tends to favor large cap. once you get out of that event, we think you can get an episode of broadening. jonathan: the emphasis on a little episode? why is that? >> there is still some anxiety in the system. a lot of it revolves around the labor market. if you look at the labor tracker or other metrics, there are some cracks or reads in the garden that you have to deal with. it does keep people a little bit conservative. lisa: momentum has not recovered . i thought that was interesting point, that this is not necessarily the gamestop frenzy that will fuel the everything up

kind of moment. what do you take from that, that the momentum is not really driving this? >> you had strong earnings from companies. i think that is what really stabilized the market. now that you have gone through that period, people take a little bit of methods and risk off the table. we are below 5000 earnings. i do think you are seeing people adjusting positioning. lisa: is that what you are recommending? do you feel fine? it is different than fine. i just want to say that. initial jobless claims. i thought that was interesting. i remember when people used to care about those. >> claims are important. last year we printed 105 and had claims about 250. the market is not going to like that combination, so claims

matter. it is just tough at such a low level. kind of ticking up is not going to do it. annmarie: how dvd inflation data? we got one that was basically in line and everyone is excited and, we are back to this inflationary trend. is that fair? >> it is a good question. the fed is taking it very well. this is a fed with a cutting bias to it. it gives the fed the kind of leeway to cut later this year. printing 30 basis points, yaro must back -- you are almost back. it gives people confidence that they are willing to cut in that environment.

you soft land and do not go into recession. that gives you a strong outlook and potentially get a little bit of juice on the valuation side. that is what the market is wanting. when you get data that allows you to confirm come i think the market tries to run with it. jonathan: your team is predicting that on the economic side of the research division. does it become increasingly short-term? is it more difficult to have a long-term view? >> 100 we recommend hedging to manage the risk. it is not what it was. you have u.s. economic surprise quite negative. there are some hiccups going on. we are keeping it much more tactical. i think it makes sense to hedge

or use options fear upside. it feels like a very responsible way to have year long exposure. i think the market is showing you that. it will be responsive to bad news. jonathan: how high is it for nvidia? widely anticipated. all signs still point to another revision higher. how high is that bar? >> i think it is the high. 2 billion used to be a big number. the buyer is pretty high nvidia. perhaps a little less high that a couple weeks ago when the market was some 5000 and there was some stress in the system. the issue is that it has been a

huge part of market cap. when you multiply it by the market cap, it can move 40 to 50 basis points by itself. the buyer is definitely high. it is not quite as aggressively high as last quarter. last quarter you had inverted skew. that is highly unusual at the single stock level. bullish, definitely. it does feel may be like people are starting to accept the fact. i think people have prepared themselves a little bit. lisa: fine and dandy. one thing i find interesting is that we used to have bellwether companies, whether it were the banks, whether it was walmart -- not necessarily a macro story. it is nvidia serving more as a macro story where we get a

broader read through from nvidia than just an nvidia story? >> i think so. you have seen how aggressively they are priced. i think we have talked in the past. it increases productivity and can lift growth. there are massive impacts in the market. nvidia is the most direct way to trade. it has made that macro story. i think others would fall into that category as well. those are the themes. annmarie: goldman sachs last week said $1100 per share that they uplifted for nvidia. maybe less and fine. jonathan: got a couple of words? >> they are not the best.

i root for the mets. jonathan: good to see you. it is fine. it will be all right. let's get an update on stories elsewhere. dani: hitting a 10 year high. a level last seen in 2013. expecting 30 or more hikes this year. i was told earlier this morning that the market was underpricing the start of japan's hiking cycle. >> possibly we get up to a range of 40 to 50 basis point. certainly a more hawkish boj and the market are under price for what is coming. dani: that was on the bloomberg brief.

j.p. morgan has lifted its net income versus the 90 billion predicted in the first quarter earnings report. they raised guidance but that is largely due to a donation made to the jpmorgan chase foundation. and shares of ryanair falling this morning. the airline announced ticket prices in the summer maybe flat to modestly higher. strong demand is there despite strained capacity. quest we are taking it -- >> we are taking it. the advice would be, the fares are only going to go in one direction. dani: stick around for the interview with michael o'leary.

that is you are bloomberg brief. jonathan: a big conversation coming up about pricing. the program, iran's president killed in a helicopter crash. >> it will make them double down on their own stance. for the next couple of months. jonathan: the latest out of the region, coming up. good morning. ♪

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lisa, that is four weeks of gains for the market. lisa: we did not even talk about the dow. crossing that mark. i thought to myself, if someone were here, we would be talking about that for the entire day. can it continue? jonathan: if you want to get some down share and are in the blue -- and are in the car right now, bloomberg radio. i suck about what is going on with fixed income. three weeks of declining yields. it is all pushing in that direction over the last month or so. it has been that way for a while. lisa: it has been viewed as a good thing.

the question is, how much do you see the weakening of the data and the fact that you are seeing some sort of real slowdown that is native for rosy projections? jonathan: let's give you a sneak peek of what is going on with euro. all of that stuff coming together and pulling down yields . a weaker dollar and a slightly stronger euro. the might have more ahead in the short-term. it is unlikely to move the dial. maybe getting europe's space to outperform again. i mentioned commodities. all-time highs on both gold and copper. what did jeff curry say recently? that this might be one of the trades of his career?

annmarie: he called it one of his best trades possibly ever. he is so bullish on copper. this has to do so much with the industrial play. the fact that this is the commodity to have for electrifying the grid. jonathan: gold positive by 0.9%. we have seen a series of all-time highs in the commodity market. under surveillance, iran's president killed in a helicopter crash. quest it is elevated further by the deaths, but the impact could be quite limited. it will make iran double down on its own stance for the next couple of months, that 50 day bogie in terms of a new election is very important. it will go out of their way to

show that it is basically business as usual. jonathan: there supreme leader announcing days of morning. the -- and elections will take place in the next 50 days. allie, can you describe the next 50 days and that country and what it will look like? quest as of today, the vice president has taken over the responsibilities of the president. he is in collaboration with the heads of the parliament and heads of judiciary to organize the election. candidates would have to announce that they are running for the race in the next few days and then there is a complex process in iran that is likely to disqualify anyone can heard a critic of the system.

only agreeing to the most loyal insiders to run for the president be, and then they would have to organize the election, which is a tough challenge for the regime. just last week, only 8% of the population in the capital city actually showed up at the polls. they have to put together a new cabinet and get confirmation for the new minister. annmarie: does this mean that the sun will be the next supreme leader? >> there is a lot of talk about it, but i do not think so. if it comes a -- i think it will be than shooting themselves in the foot if they did that. what they would like to do is to be able to continue running the

show from behind-the-scenes. that is why i think the president was an attractive candidate to groom for the top job because he was so subservient that they would have been able to preserve their influence after his passing. annmarie: what is going to change between today and 50 day out? >> not much. the president has very little sway when it comes to internal policy. especially in the case of the president who really disempowered the executive branch more than all of his predecessors combined. i expect more continuity than change. one thing is clear that in the next 50 days, iran will be internally focused. the question is with that provide an opportunity to

adversaries to push back against it? the regime feels like it is already in a position of weakness and is likely to lash out. i think there are significant risks. lisa: what does that look like at this point? >> we saw what it looked like last month. 99% of them were shut down but this was a highly telegraphed and made-for-tv attack. at a larger scale, it would be much more difficult to get away without significant death or destruction. this is talking about what iran could do. there are unilateral actions that they could take in targeting shipping in the red

sea. the risks in the region remain particularly high. the only thing that has been added to it is this degree of uncertainty that did not exist at the top of the system, but now it does. annmarie: he recently of -- he recently wrote an open letter. he is seen as a centrist reformist. what happened to those individuals? >> they have been completely sidelined because the system primarily cares about ideological confirmation at the top rather than the genesee from the bottom. the entire focus of the republic right now is on the question of succession. they want to take no risks. they want only people who are loyal to the supreme leader's vision for the country to be in charge. that is why others and the

former president have been completely marginalized. i expected to be similar to u.s. primary election where you have an intro conservative election with only the most devoted members of the party going out to vote. jonathan: we appreciate your time this morning. coming up shortly, michael mckee sitting down with raphael bostic. that conversation is five minutes away. live from new york, you are watching bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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jonathan: equity futures look a little like this. a by 0.1%. on the nasdaq we are positive. the longest winning streak going back to february. it looks a little something like that is following three weeks of decline. foreign-exchange after, the biggest going back to march. but 08 point 63.

a tough story. ivana's president has died in a helicopter crash. he was seen as a candidate -- and elections will take place in the next 50 days. it will be quite the 50 days for that country. annmarie: they need to go to elections. in that kind of circumstance, they can lash out. we are on the cusp of more geopolitical tension in this region that is already very high. lisa: it raises the question of what the election looks like. it is not the same kind of election that takes place in other places. jonathan: let's turn to the latest on the earnings front. the ai poster child. the company has seen double-digit gains in three of

the past five report. the stock is up. we had had upgrade after upgrade. berkeley and others with price targets for the stock. lisa: anything other is considered a menace. -- amiss. share price has tripled. in that one day alone, one year ago when they reported earnings, it was a 20% pop in one day. it highlights how significant the name is as a driver of the ai narrative that kicked off something that was very unexpected. jonathan: we have seen that across a few names. legal hear from others later on today, but right now michael mckee sitting down with raphael

bostic. morning. >> good morning and good morning to all of our listeners and viewers worldwide. we are at amelia island. the tests graciously agreed to join us. i'm not going to ask you when you are going to cut rates because nothing has probably changed in your view. it is not time yet and you need more confidence. >> nothing has changed. good to see you. welcome to the conference. what you said is exactly right. the numbers are very bumpy and suggest that inflation will come down far slower than expected. rather than focus on the numbers, the issue right now is, when are we going to be certain

that inflation is on its path to 2%? >> what is it that tells you that you might get one or no cuts this year? >> we do a lot of talking to business leaders and they say things are slowing down but very slowly. coming off of high levels of profits and revenue. there will be continued momentum in the economy. it will take a while to play through. pricing power is weakening. they do know that the expansion and large growth is not on the table. for me that says, it will slow down and it will get there eventually. >> is it likely that inflation goes down or that it could go up again?

>> the unexpected can always happen. the pandemic was not expected. if that happens, we will be ready and respond as appropriate. what happens next? your higher for longer now? some think you will be higher forever. you're not going to have to lower interest rates. >> i hope we do not go back to zero interest rate because that means something will have happened. it would not be ideal for anybody. i think it is likely to be higher than what people have

known over the last decade. we will have to see. going back to zero means something bad happened the economy and we want to avoid that as much as possible. >> what you say to people who want to buy a new car? how long do these industries have that they can hold out until you decide what is next? >> i do not think anybody is waiting for us on the business side. producers and auto dealers, they are adding incentives. we have talked to major sellers of cars. they are trying to do those things. for consumers, it is back to how the economy used to work. you have to find opportunities.

what i am finding and seeing is that most of them are doing that. it is a special case. because we have remote work and people working these situations, there are opportunities to engage in the economy. >> many look at the housing and other areas that have slowed down. there are arguments that may be will be behind the curve. by citing not think that is the right way to think about it. we're are looking at maximum employment. we are still seeing many jobs being created. still have police to go. for us, we need to get that

stable pricing to where it needs to be. the economy will be positioned to stand on its own, to move forward and create growth and prosperity. >> you have said as a group that we are not doing forward guidance anymore. is this what you are doing anyways? it seems that you are guiding the market or that they are reacting to everything that you say. >> i do not think this is new. we are open to all possibilities. there are scenarios where it will expand or slowdown. and then there is my outlook scenario.

in all of those cases, there are policy prescriptions. unlike in the pandemic or even the great financial crisis, when we knew that most of the risk was on one side, now there is not a bias in one direction or the other. if you want to call that forward guidance, that is fine. in many regards, that is life. you just have to be ready for it. >> you have another month before you have your next meeting is to put out your forecasts. give us a look at what you think growth and inflation will be like for the rest of the year. >> i do not know. the way the process works is as we get closer to the meeting, we try to get a sense of where everybody is. there are many great economists

to have their own views and opinion on how they will move forward. we will get to a narrative, but right now i'm just worried about this conference and making sure it goes off as well as it can. we will see. >> when you look at the economy overall, does it surprise you that we are seeing strength in the labor market that we are seeing? are you hearing anything from ceo's about that? >> what i have heard from business leaders, today, labor markets are weaker than they were, softer than 12 months ago, but they are not soft. this is a question that we ask all the time because we need to know the labor side of and what they are doing. i think it is important when we think about workers and the

labor market is that before the pandemic, labor markets were tight. i do not think we are likely to evolve to a place where -- there will be many people out there available for work. we will go back to where we were. they have been many reports that show that immigration has been an important contributor. we will see how the ball is moving forward. >> the big question that people on wall street and main street are asking is, is monetary policy restrictive now? is what you are restricting the problems for inflation or is it stuff that you cannot do anything about? >> i think that our stance is restrictive. another thing we do is surveys. i ask people all the time, you think our policy is to is

preventing things from happening that you do otherwise? many of them say yes. others say that it has changed their forecast they do not need to use that instruments for that. as one acknowledges that our policy may is slowing things down and tightening. that is what gives me the confidence that we can get inflation back to our 2% target. >> we are obviously in a season where everyone is getting asked that feeling on the economy. we will changes over the next? >> hard to say. inflation will continue to come down leumi. he will continue to create jobs and less economy will continue to be the leading economy in the world. >> will people feel that?

>> one of the things i have heard is that we do not have just one economy. we have people on the lower end of income and wealth distribution. they have gone through their access paving and they are feeling the same way they were before pandemic. and we have other people who would create -- who accrued a lot of savings through the pandemic. they are still in spend mode. a lot of what i'm trying to do is your out how that fit together to give a picture of how the aggregate economy will move forward what i am hearing today is that there is still enough spend on the upper and that the economy can continue to grow, but it is slowing down. >> we will check in with you, in a couple of months.

we will send it back to you. jonathan: looking forward to your coverage throughout the day. look out for mike catching up with the cleveland president later on. we are not slow on that. things are softer than they were come that they are not soft. more on that in a moment. stories elsewhere. here is your brief with dani burger. dani: stepping up efforts for the takeover of u.s. steel. this week, they will meet with local staff and elected officials. also sending teams to look into steel mills. declining to comment on details. testimony resumes in the market manipulation trial. they have already heard him say

that they lied to their wall street counterparties. the former chief risk officer is expected to take the stand as one of the prosecution's star witnesses. the jury has been played requiring -- has played recordings already where he assured that the family office is fine, even as it is collapsing. see foodchain red lobster has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy after facing higher costs and a disastrous unlimited ship promotion. they struggled and failed to attract customers, losing money in the fiscal year. the company also turned its english shrimp promotion into a permanent fixture at a cost $11 million as diners devoured plates. bankruptcy allows them to operate while they figure out a way to repay creditors.

jonathan: that is her favorite story this morning. lisa: i never understood the idea of selling lobster and shrimp for that cheap. if you have teenagers at home, you know that they look at where you can get all-you-can-eat and then they figure out where they can get it. annmarie: this is what executives had to say in 2003. it was the third that hurt profits. why are they doing it again? jonathan: as a promotion, i get it, but as a permanent fixture? i do used to do the same thing with pizza. lisa: there are always stories about the all-you-can-eat places and at what point you can get kicked out. jonathan: the boy's been going to red lobster?

next, is in mind the new beat? >> it could be a fed reaction function which we think is more dovish. it is very constructive for credit, heading into the summer. jonathan: you are watching bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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jonathan: welcome to the program. s&p futures just to check on the scores. we are positive. under surveillance, is in my new? >> a rally in credit. it could be this benign environment you have a fed reaction function. it is very constructive for

credit. jonathan: light on data and heavy on xp. when we going to get certain? i think it will take a while before me know that. amanda, good morning to you. great to hear from you that a fed president. this is what he had to say on the question of being restrictive. do you think we are restrictive? >> in general, markets are moving ahead. one area of concern for corporate credit is a lot of focus on rate cuts and it seems like the market expectation is that once it begins, it will be a deep rate cutting cycle.

what if we stop and we had there for a long time? i have been encouraged to see that they are chipping away at maturities. i think they are saying, we are not reading this near-term relief. we will move on with it. the one area you are seeing activity beings the dude, not strategic, but where the financing decisions are more of a calculus for the returns. in general, there are pockets we have discussed previously. you can find them in companies underperforming. my bigger focus is not on the timing of the re-cutting cycle but how far do we go? jonathan: you have said it a few

times. all are created equal. let's that is a wide month range. in mid april we changed it to say that the risk is quite balance. not all of a cuts are created equal. it is an environment where i would expect credit spreads to be wider. if we are getting bay cuts because of an improvement -- it has been somewhat elusive, and that is much more benign. if we are not getting bay cuts until late 2024 or 2025, credit can digest that, but at that point it introduces credence and

it is not good for credit. >> going back to zero made -- in terms of not of a cuts are created will, the balance has shifted. it has turned out a lot of edits debt. private credit is not that story though. they are starting to see a little more leniency by lenders as the competition heats up. >> first on the high-yield supply, one of the stats i found striking was 77% year-to-date high issue volumes were earmarked for refinancing. in private credit, we tracked an index and it is 5000 u.s. portfolio companies, somewhat counterintuitively.

part of that is increased flexibility that they have. many got an amendment from their lender. i think it speaks to the inherent flexibility and longtime lender relationship. are they better placed to make it through versus the public markets? lisa: it does not sound like there is a massive wave of defaults. the bad news is, is it really effective? are there other ways to finance an >> if you look at me and lending, you would have expected it. full rate but instead we are looking at 5.5 to 6%.

they have entered from a position of strength. they have refinanced in 2020 and 2021. in some areas, the economy has not been as sensitive as we would have expected. we are seeing that across the board but i think it speaks to the unique nature. it is true so far, two years and change. what if that is a common feature through 2025? at some point, what matters, if you are living fei company, are you lending to a company that can grow in an efficient way? >> how temporary is this? one of those sources of finance. is it a permanent shift beyond where they used to get it?

>> i think a big part of it is -- while the idea of middle-market lending is not new as a standalone, sizable asset class, we believe it is here to stay. the asset class can compete and i think that is here to stay. that competition between public and private market, where they choose to access funding -- i think it is a positive. are the company is growing in the -- in an efficient way an where are they zombies that were kept afloat? no one should be lending to those companies in public or private. jonathan: coming up in the next hour, we will catch up with phil . the ryanair ceo.

from new york with futures just about positive, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are getting closer to a point or we might actually see cuts this year.

>> we are still looking for easing now to september. >> the fed put is still alive and well in people's minds. a better bear case would be re-acceleration inflation. >> it not a trend down. it is inflation and hiding out where it is. >> we talk about wanting to go back to 2%. 2% is totally arbitrary. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, and annmarie hordern. jonathan: the third hour bloomberg surveillance begins right now. getting your trading week started with a few deep creatures -- getting your trading week started with equity futures. raphael bostic sitting down with michael mckee. the take away is what we have heard a lot already. we are slowing but we are not slowing. equity markets are softer but not soft. lisa: we don't know anything.

that is life. going back to zero mean something bad happens in the economy. not all rate cuts are created equal and they are not sure what kind till be doing. jonathan: on wednesday you get nvidia and then after nvidia there is nothing for two weeks. on june 12 there is everything. you have cpi and the federal reserve. annmarie: when it comes to nvidia, this is the stat that stands out. analysts expect nvidia crew earnings by more than 4%. that has to do with bloomberg consensus data. whether nvidia does well or not can spell whether this market is fine were not so fine. jonathan: the big data point of the week. lisa: i think it might be the 20 year auction on wednesday for treasuries. jonathan: that would be very on brand. lisa: i am very curious to hear

what happens with chris waller on friday. not all fit speak is created equal. do they address the idea of where the longer-term inflation rate really is, including with people saying -- jonathan: governor waller set the tone before. interesting to see if he does that this week. equity futures positive. in the bond market yields unchanged on the 10 year. the euro slightly negative against a stronger dollar. coming up, we will catch up with jp morgan's phil camporeale on why nervousness around rates is overblown. ryanair ceo michael o'leary in the building on boeing delivery delays. and stephanie roth on her outlook for slowing inflation. stocks edging higher following

four weeks of gains. phil camporeale saying stocks are trading all-time high after reducing the number of cuts in 2024 from six to less than two is a good sign. we do not think the economy it's an imminent cut in rates and we are not coming as an ease to validate our overweight. phil is with us around the table. last time we spoke you were super upbeat about bonds and stocks. has that changed? phil: it was overweight to credit on bond markets. we would much rather play offense and defense. we are still overweight stocks. if you can get the u.s. consumer right, you can get the allocation right. our consumer today -- this time is different. why? this is the first time since 1984 the federal funds rate is higher than the average effective mortgage rate. i love this stat.

the fed is charging 5.5%. the consumer is paying zero interest rate policy. the average effective mortgage rate folks were paying from 2008 to 2015 was about 4.3%. the effective mortgage rate today is 3.8%. that is important. the other piece is the high-yield market. if you are a cfo you went into the office and refinanced your corporate balance sheet. only 2% of the high-yield indexes coming up for maturity? 2%. you have to go out a couple of years to get serious issuance on the high-yield side. here is the other piece. here's an interest rate cut -- that is why the last couple of weeks were so important.

the bigger signal is the move index or interest rate volatility. not the number of cuts being priced in. we have just had six straight quarters of above trend growth at a time we had high interest rates. jonathan: let's unpack some of this. when you hear fed officials say we are restrictive, what are you thinking? phil: not as restrictive as they probably believe. there are a couple of things on one side of the balance sheet. there is a $7 trillion fed balance sheet. and we just talked about how interest rate incentive the u.s. consumer is. for speculation they are probably restrictive, but in terms of getting folks to stop spending i do not think they are as restrictive as they might think they are. that is a high-class problem. it meets we are not going into recession. you can get 2% inflation in a hurry but i think this will be the most lagged effective monetary policy we have seen

because of how unique this cycle was. lisa: i was thinking everything is fine because fed policy does not work. is that how we can frame this? phil: it will not work if we get accelerated inflation. that is where we have to draw the line. in his last press conference he raised the bar for them having to hike. they will have to see significant evidence their policy is not restrictive. i do not think you can go there until you get wages picking up. i think the wage story being at or around 4% is just a really good environment to take risk in. if wages are not accelerate they can be down for a while. lisa: one thing i've been doing recently is talking about people i engage with about who you are feeling -- about how you are feeling with the economy. i'm curious about the site dia that people have been feeling crappy even though the data is good.

people who feel good -- people who are wealthy feel good. every one else is struggling. at what point is allowing inflation to run hot making it more difficult for a certain subset that is flat on its back and is rate sensitive? phil: we are 100% in agreement with that. i am talking about an asset allocation decision. there are folks where delinquencies are picking up in the lower income cohorts. that stuff is happening. it is not enough to drive the economy into two consecutive quarters of negative gdp. lisa: how much do you lead into the story and go straight luxury? everything catering to people who are wealthy, people who want to lose weight, people who are on the chip trade, and ignore the rest? phil: it is not ignore the rest. the secular themes are something we are focused on.

you mentioned ai and obesity drugs. it up watch a sports game on live tv without seeing ozempic commercial. those are big secular themes we are focused on in our portfolios. it is not just that. if you do not have recession view things like i unicredit make a lot of sense, not because we are getting incredible spread but we are getting after yield. as an allocator after the devout stocks and bonds. jonathan: can we get within stocks a little bit more away from ai and weight loss? what is it you do like? is this a broad s&p story? phil: good question. i've to manage against the morgan stanley all world index. we have about 6% -- we have a 60/40 portfolio. two thirds of the overweight are

in the u.s. s&p and then the balance of that we have an overweight to develop non-us. we like the european story. we like japan. we are neutral on emerging markets. quietly emerging markets are making a comeback. not willing to go overweight. would not be under emerging markets. jonathan: is there a china factor that holds you back a little bit? phil: there is an amount of confidence that we cannot get to yet with the emerging markets driven by the china story that we can get to in the u.s.. lisa: you're not alone. phil: thank you. lisa: here is the issue. a lot of people have been talking about emerging markets as part of this reflation trade in the commodity sector is part of that. where are the limits where this becomes a problem? i am always looking for the problems. i'm wondering at what point do

you start seeing increase in commodity prices as a headwind, especially if you are worried about strength being too strong and you are worried about the idea of inflation? phil: there is a line in the sand. start to think that would be a tax. whereas, we have a long way to go to get there but also emerging markets have been so left behind that any reflation right now is good for that market. there is a point where the commodity story becomes the tax. we are not close to that. there are two things that look cheap. one is emerging markets and the other is small cap. we do not want to be underweight either of those but small-cap you want to see multiple federal reserve cuts with above trend growth which is not our view. we would avoid large-cap versus small-cap. annmarie: you go to oil but the commodity story is metals right now.

copper, the record we have seen overnight in london. isn't that a concern given the changing economies in the united states and asia and europe? phil: we have upgraded our view for precious metals in our long-term capital market assumption. the last cycle was not the new normal. we think that over the next decade we will see a two way risk on inflation the way we always saw before 2008. post financial crisis there was only one way risk, getting inflation to percent. i think the precious metals story makes sense in a structural asset allocation based on the view you may not get the protection you necessarily have been used to getting fixed income. jonathan: this was great. good to see you. fill camp rally of jp morgan -- phil camporeale of bonds -- of jp morgan on bonds and equities. ed ludlow catching up with cso's

-- ed ludlow catching up with ceos of dell and nvidia. lisa: all i can think of is dan ives description. he has his leather jackson -- he has his leather jacket. jonathan: the market has gone 20% just like that. let's get you an update on stories elsewhere. here is your bloomberg brief with dani burger. dani: morgan stanley's mike wilson now sees the s&p rising 2% by june of next year so he is pushing his target to 5400 from 4500 which would've been a 15% drop. wilson and the morgan stanley team said they expeca sunny macroenvironment but wilson did reiterate his view that outcomes are harder per ticket with volatile data -- are harder to predict with volatile data. he did say he was steering away from big calls. the saudi crown prince is postponing a trip to japan due

to concerns about his father's health. the trip was said to begin today and would've been the crown prince's first visit to japan in five years. saudi state media reported the 88-year-old king is suffering from inflammation of the young. mohammed bin salman is next in line to the throne. jeff bezos blue origin resume sending tourists to space. it launched six private plasma shares -- it launched six private passengers in its first mission since august, 2022. jonathan: or from dani it about 30 minutes. plus ryanair ceo michael o'leary . up next. ♪

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jonathan: live from new york city come equity futures positive .2%. a little lift on the s&p 500. in the bond market the yields unchanged. first up, barclays raising its price target on nvidia to 1100. analyst seeing $1 billion in upside for first quarter revenue. that stock is up 1.3%. morgan stanley upgrading micron to equal weight. analyst point the strengthening demand for ai related projects. jeffrey's initiating coverage on u.s. steel with a buy rating and a positive backdrop for the metals and mining sector things to ongoing u.s. economic strength. let's turn to travel. shares of ryanair lower with the airline same summer fares may be flat despite low capacity. ryanair plenty to offer discounts.

the ceo michael o'leary joins us. michael: pleasure to be here again. jonathan: let's talk about pricing. capacity is down. prices are flat. michael: difficult to understand it ourselves. we thought pricing would be softer. at the moment it looks like it is flat. a bit of consumer resistance. capacity is constrained in europe. we thought that would lead to stronger pricing. easter was early so that means april and may and june or softer. we still see pricing up through july and august and september. we are concerned because of boeing delivery delays. prices will be softer. good for consumers. not so good for shareholders. we have announced a share buyback today. jonathan: the strength for summer, soft now but you expect

prices to increase as the summer progresses? michael: in the april may june quarter pricing is down. pricing is up small. we've only sold about 40% of the seats. it could still be upside higher, it could be lower. we have costs well under control. we have hedged our fuel. we have saved $450 million. we can use that to stimulate pricing. when we have done price stimulation we have seen strong responses. i think consumers are there. they are nervous. you give them a price incentive, the volume is very strong. lisa: does this take the pressure off of the 23 deliveries of boeing jets you are waiting for? ultimately capacity is less of an issue. michael: i would prefer to take the aircraft. you could fill those aircraft through july and august and

september, travel will be strong and pricing will be strong. we regret that will be 20 aircraft shorts. our labor will be a little higher in the second quarter but volume is lower. we have had to pay back our full-year forecast last year to about 200 billion passengers. it does not really help because we are geared for the growth and we will be 20 aircraft short. lisa: you have known for being incredibly cost-conscious. return to get a deal on some of these jets, looking to buy some from others or say if you want to shift to airbus that is fine, i will take your max 737. michael: when united came out with those comments -- those stupid comments early in the year, we will not take those aircraft, if you don't want them we will take them. they mumbled and decided they will take them anyway. aircraft deliveries are tight. airbus and boeing are running

behind in their liveries. there -- in their deliveries. 20% of the airbus fleet is grounded. europe is in airbus market. capacity is constrained. pricing is soft this summer. we thought pricing would be stronger. if the consumers are more price conscious pump if they are more price sensitive, it is good for our business because we are the lowest price provider. annmarie: what are you hearing from boeing. in the past you said you thought the deliveries could slip further. how much further are we talking? michael: we are 20 aircraft behind. you see signs of improvement in recent weeks. stephanie pope and her team in seattle do a good job. we are not yet seeing a speed up in the turnaround times in seattle.

they are still taking 12 or 14 weeks to produce an aircraft when it should be eight to 10. two weeks ago they sent us an update. we are expecting two deliveries in june, two in july. we are beginning to see the situation improve. we will still take aircraft through august and october even though we cannot fly them during those month. we think we get all 59 aircraft in this calendar year. the big issue with boeing is when we get the 29 aircraft deliveries contracted between january and april 2025. they are taking small steps. annmarie: if that is your big question into next year how do you weigh the impact of your business for 2025? annmarie: -- michael: for march 25 -- i think will get most of those aircraft from

boeing and then we would like to see ourselves grow to 250 million passengers through summer 2025 into march 2026. we still think pricing will be reasonably robust across europe because capacity has to be constrained. airbus and boeing cannot deliver additional aircraft. the engine issue is a huge problem for the airbus fleet. they are talking about 250 days to repair the engines. we think it will be 400 or 500. a lot of airbus planes will be grounded for the next two or three years. lisa: how much of this is pricing power and we are surprised there is more pricing power? how much of this is the end of the boom we saw in travel and people are constrained by the fact that hotel prices have tripled. you can see any restaurant you go to is incredibly expensive. how much have we reached the tipping point where we go back to something that is pre-pandemic and not this you can work anywhere and travel all

the time mentality? michael: i think europe is a fundamentally different market than the u.s.. north america you see a lot of travel price inflation in the last year. the average fare southwest charged was $170. the average ryanair was 48 euros. there is no doubt in my mind the european consumer is careful, they are cautious. go out with seat sales, we sell out straightaway. we have higher interest rates, goldman is coming back on inflation. consumers are a little bit nervous. interest rates will fall, if not this year through into next year. we will see some rebound in consumer spending. they will protect travel. the experiential spent will continue. it will trend down to lowest cost provider. jonathan: is this a time to get more aggressive? michael: i would love to. if i could get more aircraft out

of boeing i would be on it like a rash. we are taking more market share. nobody is expanding in europe. we are winning huge amounts of market share despite the fact that our capacity growth is constrained by boeing delivery delays. we are taking market share. that will continue. if i could get more aircraft i would try to grow faster at the cost of lower airfares. jonathan: you have a good read on the consumer. do they care what plane they are flying on? michael: most do not know what plane they're flying on. i don't know which plane i am flying on most of the time. i would prefer to fly on a boeing max aircraft because it is quieter and i know that plane is burning 60% less fuel than the older 737s. boeing make great aircraft. they are getting a lot of unfair publicity in the last 12 months. jonathan: what has been unfair? michael: is a maintenance issue

for those airlines. it is not fundamentally a 737 issue. the seven great airplane they are making phenomenal new engines and the engine technology has been transformed. we cannot wait to get the max 10. they will carry more passengers but burn less fuel. not only will it transform our economics but it will make us a cleaner -- a greener and clear airline. jonathan: good to see you. michael o'leary, ryanair ceo. equity futures positive .1%. live from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: 60 minutes away from the bell. the nasdaq up by .02. another week of gains across the board in the equity market. mike wilson making headlines. new price target, 5,400. old price target, 4,500. that's quite an upgrade for mr. wilson over at morgan stanley. >> at a certain point you have to go to where the parkt -- market has gone. earnings have been better than expected. you are seeing earnings growth after the first quarter about on par to where they were in the fourth quarter. looking at 7% earnings per share

growth, which is kind of in line or a little bit more than people thought. jonathan: do you think j.m. morgan is up next? >> i think so. 4,200. what gets us there? what weakness will we get that completely torpedoed the momentum? jonathan: bear in mind where we were in september, october. steve was with us from federated early this morning. we kicked off the morning with him. he said he had a price target of 5,200. 4,400 on the s&p 500. talking about upside of 15%, 20% back then. we have a very different story now. >> the idea that 5,200 is bearish now because it means the market has to go down at a time when you have to wonder what will tore torpedo it. the discussions we have had this morning, fed policy has not been very effective. as much as people want to say it's restrictive, for the overall macroeconomy you are not seeing it be effective.

jonathan: let's turn to the bond market. 10 year, 30 year. yield is up by about a basis point, on a two year just about unchanged. over the last three weeks or so the trend has been clear particularly at the long end on a 10 year. yields have been declining for three weeks. foreign exchange, the euro negative against the dollar. the dollar is stronger with the exception of the swedish krona. under surveillance this morning, the iranian president killed in a helicopter crash. state news agencies confirming his death along with the country's frm after rescuers spent hours trying to locate the crash site. dense fog covered the area on sunday. annmarie, some pictures coming out over the weekend, no wonder they couldn't find the chopper. annmarie: they had the likes of

turkey to help them. it held the foreign minister as well. the conduit to have with saudi arabia. now what you have is an iran that will be looking internal. you have the vice president coming up and he will be a caretaker and they will announce elections in the next 50 days. jonathan: the next 30 days, a lot to watch. i want to turn to this story. looking to sweeten its proposed u.s. steel. to meet with local staff and politicians. it's also sending technical teams to review u.s. steel mills in an effort to boost investment to win over union leaders. it's not just union leaders they need to win over and that's the problem. annmarie: part of this feels like how much time do you bide and how much road work do you lay before the election? before the election, there is no way because president biden has made it clear that he doesn't really want to let a foreign

company buy a u.s. steel company because it falls upped national security and all sorts of arguments. but afterwards a lot of people say it will go through. >> it depends who is in the white house. trump has vowed to not let this deal go through. biden's words recently when he went to pittsburgh was this is an iconic american company and it should remain totally american. jonathan: good luck to them. another busy week of fed speak on deck. investors also looking ahead to the minutes from the last fed meeting. jobless claims and consumer sentiment. joining us to discuss this, stephanie roth with mark mccormick of t.d. security. stephanie, we heard from the atlanta fed president about an hour ago. he said things were softer in the labor market. they weren't soft. would you agree? stephanie: absolutely. we have seen softening. it was a type of print where you had a 175 payroll numbers good by historical measures and

average engs on the -- earnings on softer side. there are some concerns in the market that the labor market will start to crack. there are no signs of that. people are just taking the narrative and running and flipping it upside down. that's not a fair characterization either. realistically we are seeing a rebalancing in the labor market that's working out fairly well. jonathan: mark, should we flip q1 upside down? is that what q2 has in store for us? mark: the market is taking a positioning in a tej narrative and overlaying it into fundamentals. if you look at the morn important points, like employment index, some of the other indicators, there is no sign here that inflation is cracking. if you look into details, it's robust and relatively strong. i think also if you put it in line with where the fed is supposed to be, they're looking for 15 basis points.

it looks like core p.c.e. is tracking about 25 basis points. it still feels like there is a big disconnect. >> do you agree that this resurgence of inflationary wave is the biggest risk and look more feasible? stephanie: it's a risk. is it one i am concerned about? no. the data is starting to look better. q1 was driven by seasonals. powell seems to believe that as well. what we are starting to see is a normalization in inflation. i think this was the most important clean read of inflation that we have got in this year because seasonals were driving up q1 inflation and april was a lot better. we tracking core p.c. of 25 basis points. financial services, back down towards 2%, it was 2% month on month. that is exactly what the fed is looking for. it's very easy come the summer

months to be tracking along those lines. the fed should be comfortable cutting in september. >> even though you do see the resurgence under the hood of stickier inflation, commodity prices getting hotter, from your perspective you are talking about how that's your fear. at what point is this driving flows internationally into the u.s. at a time when some people are saying weaker dollar can make sense and other people say hold on because on a relative basis, rates are so much higher in the u.s., strength is there and the fed won't be able to cut as much as the e.c.b.? mark: it's very interesting because there's a clear focus on growth and inflation. towards the end of last year, there was a convergence with the rest of the world coming into the u.s. u.s. exceptionalism peaked last year. everyone seems to be overlaying this fading u.s. exceptionalism now which i think is interesting because this is more about positioning and valuations that we are extremely stretched in favor of the dollar, couple good

data prints, but what we are seeing if you start testing f.x. strategies, they change their focus on inflation. i think the one thing that's interesting about the fed is it's asymmetric from a risk perspective. there is an election. it's the el fapt in the room. there is no room for error for one inflation print to come in from the summer above expectations and still be able to reliably expect september to actually be live. if you take out september, then you have november and december. how is the fed going to cut in november around the election and given the results of the election, how could the fed cut december? the way we are thinking about from a trading perspective is you could have inflation kind of go back to the levels people are comfortable with but do you price in three hikes? do you get more confident in two? if you get one bad number, that makes september a very tricky indicator especially to trade it

into the election. i think a big part of this is we know other g10 central banks are about to cut but we are not clear on whether the fed can and whether they will. the big driver for the currency market is inflation die divergence. jonathan: there is tons to unpack there. what convinces you that the election is so important? when we go back to 2012, september, what does it matter so much more this time? mark: i think a a big part of it is inflation. we can see that you get policy actions and it's usually not a problem, but inflation is way above target. so it's like this would be the first cut with very elevated inflation, a tricky election where the polls are neck and neck and there is a lot on the line. it's a very contentious election. i think the policy implications from one side other the other are so massive that the market is placing so much emphasis

especially for the effects market because it is the most actionable way to look at the presidential implications in terms of terrorists, tax cuts, those are two big things sitting on the table for next year. the corporate tax cuts will expire and the discussions around tariffs will remake the entire currency market. this fits into the story around the geopolitics, around capital flows. if you look what is happening with currency markets, like china and russia and emerging markets are aligned where they are basically settling currency and they're finding ways to nudge themselves away from the dollar. this is why gold is trading at the levels it's at. there are so many implications. the easiest thing to think about is how much can the fed cut into the election if inflation is still well above target? jonathan: stephanie, does the election matter? stephanie: i think the fed is in a tough spot. powell has indicated they're planning on cutting if the

conditions are right. it's purely on the last part of that, if the conditions are right, which means the core p.c. needs to be trending at 2% month on month. as mark mentioned, it has to go exactly right in order for the fed to cut. if they have a couple of missed prints, then yeah, the fed can't be cutting. you have a lot of conditions that should be continuously is inflationary between now and september and they'll be able to move. at this point they're caught in a box and they have to go on what they've indicated is key bench mark indicators. if those things are consistent with the fed cutting, they will be cutting. regardless what they do, they'll be painted as politicized. they can cut in september. november is probably out. december is the next one. >> that's if inflation is on the trajectory lower but if there is a move and softness in the labor market, that would give them some cover to cut into an election do you think? >> absolutely. if you started to see softness in the labor market, they would

have every indication to cut. in the beginning of 2023 they were in a position if they saw weakness they couldn't cut immediately. we are talking about 3% inflation. that's a much different backdrop. so they're now able to be more nimble and be able to cut interest rates even if inflation is a little sticky and even on the employment side of the mandate. >> you see there is very little room for the fed to be cutting rates. you could see them not cutting at all this year. at the same time, you see a resurgent inflation as one of the biggest risks. so put that together in terms of what is going to be the main driver of either dollar strength or weakness. >> i would say the last couple of months we flipped, quite bullish, the dollar against g10 currencies. that is the backdrop that it's asim met symmetric -- asymmetric. the fed can cut. that's our baseline call. when you think about the

markets, how people have to deal with the risks, the risk is if there is no room for error and data is volatile and we constantly have to look at revisions to understand the trend, the trend in u.s. inflation is quite different from all the other countries that you track in the currency market. the other implication is that the asymmetric outcome is one where if you think about the market was very excited that powell said there are no hikes, that's fine, but we weren't like market was talking about five or six cuts. now it's ok we don't have any hikes at all. but i think if you think about it this way, if we do have a more volatile fall and inflation is generally sticky and the polls are leaning towards a change in leadership for the dollar, it has to price in the risk of tariffs. it has to price in the risk that corporate tax cuts will be extended. so in a very strong economy that's dealing with elevated inflation, you have macropolicy

moving more inflationary so the market will have to reprice the expectations. whether or not it evolves that way but it will have to reprice a narrative next year that is the rest of the world is cutting. the u.s. economy looks like it could get stronger and the fact that you are adding tariffs makes it much more inflationary. so you kind of have to rethink the way that you look at the entire markets, particularly from the f.x. side. we are looking at a strong dollar against g10 currency but also like the commodity story so it's a buffer for some ee -- emerging markets. it is moving back into the terms of trade shop and it's a world where it kind of creates conditions where we were expecting financial conditions to ease this year to see the economy evolve in a better state. if what we see is u.s. inflation and the dollar creating tension around that, then we can't realize those financial conditions and we can't realize

the groat expectations that were priced in this year for next year. that's what starts to see the volatility increase. that's what starts to see trades and this is what adjusts market sentiment. these are the risks we have to focus on and that's request we -- why we are more bullish on the dollar. >> stephanie to tease out one part he was talking about, this idea tariffs would mean the dollar would be stronger, that some of the protectionist policies some people are talking about being implemented especially if there is a change in leadership would cause more inflationary pressures and would cause a stronger dollar because the fed would have to remain higher for longer. is that kind of an outcome that you agree with? stephanie: it's a difficult one and that might be how the market prices the election initially but the tariffs wouldn't go into place until 2026. second of all, it's possible that the labor market is actually in better balance by the time of election comes so the trump administration turning off the immigration flows might not be as inflationary as many

fear. by the way, the biden administration has done a lot of spending themselves. so it's not actually entirely clear that if we do get a change in administration you will start to get a real pickup in spending. either way, we will be gotting tax cuts extended. the trump or biding en administration would be extending tax cuts. it depends if you carve out the upper income people. it's not going to be a boost to the economy serge when you are thinking about tax cuts because it's extend whag we have today. the tariff one is a difficult one. i would view that as more -- could be dollar positive but it would also be an environment where growth would likely weaken. the policies that trump has alluded to with 60% china tariff or 10% across the board tariff would be incredibly difficult for growth. realistically it's possible it wouldn't be that inflationary. the fed should probably pause, see what happens and then they would likely react.

it's not as clear-cut as trump is inflationary and the fed would no longer be able to cut in that environment. that's not necessarily the case. annmarie: when it comes to tax cuts and tariffs, whether or not it's biden or trump, we are likely going to see more of the same. it just depends how aggressive they are going to be. so in that case what do you have in terms of the direction of the dollar under a trump 2025 or biden 2025? mark: i think the part of it is that with trump it creates more uncertainty, more volatility and like the way the markets are trading, the currency market, they're trading -- i hear it a lot from client discussions. the rest of the world is improving is why people want to sell the dollar. we are a bit confused because a lot of our indicators suggest the global economy is not accelerating, it's losing steam,

but there are some anecdotes china is trying to clean up the housing market. commodities are doing well across the board. maybe that's part of the reflaton. people are excited about the global economy and the slowdown in the u.s. and you have to unpack it too as well because laying out slower growth and those type of things that would come from a trump administration is bullish dollar because it's risk off. the people are trading right now kind of risk on. u.s. is slowing but not by enough. you can get fed cuts. so i think what people are trying to figure out is which matters more, u.s. growth outperforming others? u.s. inflation being stronger therefore the fed has to react to that? or whether or not in a trump administration, does the rest of the world underperform? like do we get the rug pulled out from us as the rest of the world seems like it's doing ok.

europe's leading indicators are improving. does that go away under a trump presidency which is what we saw the first time around, which is the u.s. outperformed the rest of the world. u.s. growth looked good because tariffs and the macropolicies were administers -- administered, slowed down the rest of the world. that is what people are trying to figure out is high inflation kind of weak growth environment good for the dollar because we move out of this goldilox environment. i feel like any state we go through over the next six months is something that's more volatile and the volatility -- again first order and second order effects. the first order is you price the risk premium. second ort effect is we agree if trump wins, it's actually you could see the dollar weaken dramatically after the first year. you could see the implementation of a new plaza but those are results of the fact the dollar

strengthens so much to pricing the risk around these economic policies. >> stephanie, final word. stephanie: it's complicated. for now it's all about fed policy and whether inflation can be consistent with the fed being able to cut. the market will not be abl to price during the election until maybe next year. so for now it's going to be all about whether the fed can be a little more dovish which in the first quarter we think we just passed hawkishness. it was all about u.s. exceptionalism and inflation overheating but if you remember back to december, we were talking about the opposite. we have been swung around by the data. it's really all about looking through a lot of the noise. we are looking at inflation running 3% a little bit too sticky but nothing that's that dramatic and an economy that's starting to slow down. for us it looks fairly

goldilocks. jonathan: stephanie, good to see you, mark mccormick. this on waller from city. the governor's comments may have more impact than stale minutes released on wednesday. i think a lot of people would not as they listen to that. an update on stories. here is your bloomberg brief. >> j.p. morgan has lifted its interest income to $91 billion. the firm also raised its expense guidance to $92 billion but that's largely from a $1 billion donation to the bank made to its foundation. the new guidance comes ahead of its annual investor day in fork city -- new york city. testimony resumes in the fraud trial of bill wong. jurors have heard people say they lied to counterparties. the former chief risk officer is

expected to take the stand. he was a key contact for the banks and the jury has been played recorded conversations where he reassures them that wong's family office is fine even as it's collapsing. becker will testify as a cooperating witness. the nba conference final matchups are set. sadly the indiana pacers beat the knicks in a dominating game seven performance on sunday. they take the top seed boston slt iks, that series starts tomorrow night. in the western conference the minnesota timberwolves upset the defending champion denver nuggets. the wolves came back from a 20 point deficit in the second half to take the series. they'll be facing the dallas mavericks in a series that starts on wednesday. that's your brief, jon. jonathan: thank you. up next, setting upper -- you up for the day and the week ahead. you are up and about. equity features just about positive.

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jonathan: 36 minutes away from the opening bell with equities just about positive. how restrictive is fed policy? >> i think that our stance is restrictive. another thing we do, we have surveys and i ask people all the time, do you think that our policy stance is preventing something from happening that you would do otherwise? every business leader says yes. that's what gives me the confidence in a we can get inflation back to 2%. jonathan: is the trading for the day ahead we will hear from fed's chris waller. ed ludlow speaking to the c.e.o.'s plus it's jp morgan's invest the day. for a final word, annmarie. annmarie: i have an interview coming up with senator cruz and

senator brit who is on trump's v.p. short list. this is going to be about abortion and i.v.f. how the republicans are really trying to actually change how the electorate thinks about the republican party when it comes to those issues. lisa: if everything is just fine, which is the bigger tipping point? what i thought was interesting today is people are putting aside a weak labor market despite the population and some of what people are saying in terms of sentiment. jonathan: the theme of the morning, not sure how nervous that makes you that everything is just fine apparently. coming up tomorrow, claudia sarb, morgan stanley's mike wilson and we will catch up with matt lasetti. thank you very much for choosing bloomberg tv. this was "bloomberg this was "bloomberg surveillance." food isn't just fuel to live.

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>> from new york city for our viewers worldwide looking at new records across the board the count onto the open starts now. ♪ matt: coming up, stocks holding near a record as a major bear capitulates pre-fed speak ramping up with limited data on the dock. earnings season ramps up. we begin with the big issue stress