>> good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak. i'm tom mckenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. stocks and bond selloffs are the strongest amid u.s. consumer confidence. another record powered by nvidia. israel's army says tanks are in the center of rafah. the strike on an encampment was devastate bug will not affect arms shipments. polls nope south africa. -- open in south africa. we're live in dur been this morning. let's check -- in durbin this morning.

elon musk may be buying the h100 chips but then more concern more broad will about demand for u.s. treasuries. demand at the weakest level in over a year. european stock futures down. are ftse 100 futures looking to losses. the s&p looking down by .3%. it is knack futures after the record was crossed looking to lose. the focus again on the treasure curve. 10-year yields up eight by a points ises. 4:56on your bench mark ten-year. the pound continues to come through for sterling and hedge funds. upping their bets.

at the highest level since 2008 since the yen. brent crude, $84. geo-political risks coming back into the oil marks with the focus on the middle east. gold down .8%. avri, what are you looking at? >> the selloff in u.s. treasuries and how it is filtered into the u.s. pacific. equities losing ground. declines from tokyo to sydney and the gauge of stocks in the region declining by the northeast more than a month. csi is more of an outlier. relaxing home buying restrictions. special mention as well for the stock after its labor union says it will strike for the first time dispute over wages, raising

concerns about production especially when this company is trying to catch up with some of its other chip making rivals. the bond space because as i say there is that selling going on. take look what the we're seeing from australia. the 10-year is perform there go. the move of about 15 basis points. the biggest since july 2023 at least. investors grap blg eking with the higher u.s. yields. the consumer confidence. we also got australia, cpi numbers showing a quickening. then we have investors bracing for this hawkish rba. this is what we're seeing. given those expectations of what the reserve bank of australia is

going to do and there being no alternative for yen, aussie yen at the highest level since 2013, and this is against backdrop of a resilient dollar. tom? tom: avril, thank you very much indeed. treasuries are under pressure. two key got auctions were met with tepid demand. the pceat the that comes through index friday. mary from our markets live team and we also had the events from neil kashkari. let's start with the tepid demand for the five-year and two-year out of the u.s. is this a oneoff blip or are

there broader concerns about resog the issuance from the u.s. treasury? >> i think there is just general concern in terms of how the fed is speaking and the rhetoric coming out from the fed. just adds more invest orangest as to whether treasuries are in fact a good buy at this opponent. but one of the things we do snow that neil kashkari pointed out that rate hikes are not off the table but it was very low. it implies that rates are peaking at these points. there is still invest orangest. tom: on the data question, we had a consumer confidence survey

come in higher than estimates. that is surprising. how much clarity do we have around the resilience of the u.s. and whether or not we are starting to see cracks? >> a lot of data has come out mechanicsed in terms to have activity holding up. there are some cracks in the system. overall, the message is still that the u.s. economy is holding up. of course we're going to get affirmation from the q1 gdp that is going to show that consumption which is the key thing now and the key driver of the u.s. economy is still holding up. as long as you don't see cracks in the consumer and labor market the fed is still going to remain cautious in terms of when to start its easing cycle.

tom: thank you very much indeed. we look at the u.s. 10-year. not a lot of movement after what we saw yesterday. let's look at the middle east. israeli tanks reaching the center of rafah. residents reporting clashes between israeli and hamas forces in the center of town. john kirby says the white house does not support a major ground nation in rafah. >> we have been very consistent on that. the president said should that occur, it might make him have to make different decisions in terms of support. we have not seen that happen at this point. tom: let's get more. what is the latest in terms of

development on the ground? >> i think the immediate question supreme asked after the air strikes attack on sunday is what that would mean the terms of the u.s. and whether or not this biden administration saw that attack as a red line. it became apparent yesterday dwhrarch the u.s. does not deem that the israelis crossed a red00. he said i have no policy changes to speak to. the idf put out a statement saying they had used precise small how do you know i guesses and they are investigating the cause of that secondary fire that later engulfed that encampment. we know up to 45 palestinians, many children and women were killed. overnight we heard israeli tanks entering into the center of

rafah they ruled that israel should stop with the military offensive and yet they have continued after the u.s. has said they have not so far crossed that red line they speak of. there is no upcoming potential pausing of international aid. i out this it was notable that the saudi arabians put out a strongly worded tweet. this is a quote. they say israel must stop with the genocidal massacres, very strong words coming out from saudi arabia. another major step from european nations spain, ireland and norway recognizing palestine as a state. tom: what is the sensitivity? what is your take on the

sensitive to the oil markets, the oil markets? >> yeah. obviously very topical given we have the opec plus meeting coming up this weekend, tom. some support has come through. by and large over the last couple of months we have seen the energy complex brushing ahl off some of these geo-political concerns actually zero dollars of premiums priced into the oil curve. this was up to $12 after october 7. what is going on here is a mismatch between the supply that is available and the demand that is coming through namely out of asia. that will continue to post headwinds despite the geo-political tension we're seeing in the reason. tom: thank you very much indeed.

here is what else to be thinking about in terms of the rest of the day. 5:00 p.m. u.k. time. that deal the bhp anglo offers, that closes 5:00 p.m. they will have to come to some agreement or it get scrapped. bhp has to convince anglo investors of that offer. they have rebuffed it three times. we'll see how that story unfolds. 7:00 p.m. u.k. time a bit more detail on the health of that u.s. economy the fed beige book. that is an important gauge in terms of the surveys. confidence surviacomming in higher than the estimates. 8:00 p.m. u.k. time the polls close south africa. the most closely run election sense 1994. so crucial to that nation.

and coverage of south africa's election continues. we'll speaking with the.com economist about the economic priorities that the next government in south africa should be putting on their agenda. the economic challenges for that company. stay with us.this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. polls have just opened in south

africa's most consequential election since the end of apartheid. take it away. what are we looking at? >> tom, as you just mentioned polls just opened here in south africa. we are actually standing in front of the largest polling station near durbin which is hope also to a very strong stronghold. it is one of the key provinces we're paying close attention to. the home to johannesburg and the western cape, home to capetown. the reason why they see are such a focus is because of the population size and the economic activity. in mar here, the big question is what is the split going to look like if we are going to see a

split? are they going to be able to hold on to this outright majority that they have been able to hold on to for the past 30 years? if not, what does the coalition look like? has the question investors and the public is asking themselves. we have seen a lot of instability. just because -- considering the myriad of issues that are facingthis country, will a coaln government be able to come together and tackle a number of these issues, tom? >> lose everywhere across the country. they have lost their base support which is mostly of course black south aftercancer. they have lost a lot of votes. has the second biggest province ens in south africa in erms of

voting numbers. that hurts them. >> so, tom, that was one of the guests we were speaking to in the western cape talking about tow consequential it could be. the interesting about this province, durbin, it is an amc stronghold but pull out a little bit more, this province is very large. in the rural area, we're seeing a number of supporters for former president jake only zouma. if that is what the result is going to be what does that look like? tom: ok. it is getting very busy. there were five or six people behind you when we started this report.

it has doubled or tripled. we'll watch the turnout. thank you very much indeed. at this point let's bring in a development economist for the context in some of the economic challenges facing south africa and how they rate on voters' minds. where do they sit in terms of the priority of voters? how important is the economy of south africa for them? >> i think it is the bottom line that that aeffect each and every household and consumer. household disposable incomes have shrunk considerably with the rates rising from the reserve bank side with the high cost of living reflecting every south african. the pig context is issues around growth projections and economic activity in each of the province. are households working?

particularly particularly businesses. because of the infrastructure constraints around energy and high cost of inputs a lot of businesses are having constraint productivity. on the other end, we're seeing a lot of policy imperatives that have not been executed. there are a lot of targets with a projected 1% growth for this year. what we're seeing is that the demand side and productivity is not enabling the growth of south african needs. you can see from all aspects of the economy overarcking that the slowdown and low growth trap is befght economic sectors and households and there has to be a decisive economic policy put in

place. tom: what is then the policy prescription in your mind to get out of -- as you describe that slow growth trap facing south africa? >> we need a strong economic strategy that enhance labor demand. we have to stimulate productivity. we have to look at subsectors in the economy that have high labor intensity. a trust of economic sectors of institution in the economic cluster. they are not necessarily as well coordinated as they ought to be. i believe all of these sectors that contribute to economic output need to be managed, we need an economic council of sort that drives both agricultural productivity as exporters of

gdp. in the peripheries of our economy and also expand new economic sectors. if we look at renewal energy, one of the components is the components that you can actually locally produce. many are imported from bigger economies like to chinese. even the north americans, production is really minimal. i think the reform of those value chains and insuring that inclusivity curse. and will drive sectoral reform that will come up from manufacturing. these are the subsectors that we have seen declining over the past 20 or 30 years.

tom: it is fascinating to to what extent is it -- we have seen it eroded in recent years. the blackouts. is this the lack of political will? how much confidence do you have that the government will be able to address the infrastructure of south africa? >> i believe we can get that right. port infrastructure hasn't been as optimal in terms of ability to produce what is required at the different ports. we see the rail infrastructure in terms of the rate at which we're able to get our platinum and iron ore, whether it is exports, a key part of our policy output eut out into the markets where we had to slow down because of logistics.

a lot of freight pressure. everyone is moving products and goods on the road and the maintenance cost of that is serious. south africa has put up an infrastructure to quell some of the infrastructure finances. tom: we have run out of time. fantastic insight. on the economic priorities for the next south african government. be sure to catch our interview at 9:30 a.m. stay with us. this is bloomberg.

>> china's economy is continuing to recover, so we certainly are seeing that consumption is

recovering but still has some ways to go. public investment remains. private investment is still weak mainly because of the weakness in the property sector. we are seeing signs of recovery, but yes, there is still more that -- we need to see more evidence of that. despite that, we do expect that growth will be around 5% this year. >> what more needs to be done? >> i would like to recognize the the policy steps that have been take. the recent announcement upgrading equipment of firms but also consumer good of households that can help. but yes, in our view, more will be needed, specifically on the property sector front. it will be very help to feel deal with the problem of presold housing. houses that have been presold but not completed here. we see a bigger role for central

government to come in and deal with that, to be able to complete those presold houses because when that happens, that is going to help household confidence which is essential at this time and also help with the exit of nonviable developers. secondly in terms of providing support overall we think this should be a fiscal neutral stance. i think it is important that the spending goes in the direction of helping low income households. they are the once able to consume more of that additional income. that will provide a boost to the economy. tom: the first deputy managing director for the imf. craig here pays too much for verizon wireless. so he sublet half his real estate office... [ bird squawks loudly ] to a pet shop. meg's moving company uses t-mobile. so she scaled down her fleet to save money. and don's paying so much for at&t, he's been waiting to update his equipment! there's a smarter way to save.

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tom: good morning, this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. stocks and bonds set off after stronger-than-expected may u.s. consumer confidence. in hawkish remarks from the fed's neel kashkari. the nasdaq marks the trend in closing in another record powered by nvidia. israel's army says tanks are in the center of raw. meanwhile, the u.s. says sunday strike on an encampment was devastating, but won't invade arms shipments to israel. palms open in south africa as the tightest election since the anc first came into office in 1994 gets underway. we are live durban this morning for all the reaction. let's check in on these markets. it's the selloff in the bond markets that has our attention. given the weakness that we saw in terms of the treasury

auctions of this week. the two-year period the five year, the demand of the weakest level. we have a seven your auction later today. but also, neel kashkari putting back on the table optionality across a wake -- rate hike across the federal reserve. not the base case but saying it will not be ruled out. consumer survey coming in higher. all of that leading to the selloff across the bond market. when it comes to stocks picture, looking to losses of around 2/10 of a percent. ftse 100 pointing down. s&p futures looking to losses of 4/10 of a percent. nasdaq futures pointing the losses of 80 points after breaking through a fresh record yesterday. nvidia the catalyst with a 7% gain coming through for the maker of semiconductors around ai. let's flip the board and look across assets. eight basis points higher for the yield. 10-year currently at 455. pound at 127, relative strength for the pound on expectations that the boe will not go as soon as the ecb.

brent at $84 a barrel getting 2/10 of a percent with the geopolitical lens on the middle east and go, 2360 flat for the yellow metal. let's get back to politics from south africa to europe. polls open for european parliamentary elections from june the sixth and a consequential vote that could see far right political parties make significant gains. migration, climate regulations, geopolitics are among the key issues this election. joining me now as lead candidate of the party of european socialists and eu commissioner for jobs and social rights. commissioner, thank you very much for joining us this morning. as we look ahead to the eu parliamentary elections, what is your level of concern? what is the level of concern within your group as to the shift, the potential shift to the right within the bodies of politic of europe? >> i would not say that we are directly concerned because we are the campaign to fight and to

convince citizens to explain what is at stake in what is at stake is the future of europe. it's a choice between strong europe and a europe that could disintegrate. and i think that it we still have a week to go, but it's important to make clear that there is no possibility to cooperate with those who want to destroy or at least build back the european integration or european union. tom: pretty stark language in terms of the potential breakup of the european project. what would lead to that? that would be a result of a significant shift to these right-wing wing parties, that's where your concern is, a potential breakup of the european union if you see a significant shift to the right? >> we live in a different world.

there is really a change in the geopolitics in the economy, the global economy. so what we need now is a stronger europe, a europe that works with much more together, which integrates its financial markets, for instance, and the other option being disintegration would finally bring europe as an insignificant actor in the world. tom: your grouping, the socialist grouping polling and expected to come in second. we will see how it unfolds after the actual vote itself. if you are compelled to go into some form of coalition or power-sharing with other groups across the eu parliament, where would your redlines sit? >> i think we are very clearly, already defining our redlines. so we cannot have a coalition or

an agreement or any kind of arrangement with the extreme right. this is our redlines because you cannot have a deal with those who have a totally different vision of the future of europe. tom: just for clarity, which parties fall into that definition of extreme right? is it the id group, marine le pen's party within france? collects when you look at the different groups, there are two groups which can be considered as extreme right. they are partisan there, which are very similar. what they say is also very similar. so, when you take ecr, ecr is not the conservative group with her being a pro-european. for us, it's clear these are two

groups which obviously are extreme right and do not share our vision of europe. tom: in 2019 there was a big focus on the need to address the climate crisis. that seems to have dropped down a list of priorities. is that your assessment, this is less of a priority as you focus on those geopolitical challenges? >> that is one of the big dangers and that's coming from the extreme right and that has been taken up by the more conservative's in the epp. that would be the biggest mistake if we stop our climate policy for two reasons because climate change is going on massively, and second, we have competitors be china, japan, who continue massively to invest in technologies and transformation of the economy. if europe stops, if europe pauses, we lose competitiveness,

and we lose -- tom: the eu's climate ambitions are at risk in this election? >> we have to make sure that they are not at risk. for us, it is essential to continue the implementation, that's another issue, we have to discuss with all the stakeholders how to implement the green deal, but it is essential to implement it. tom: what should the priorities be in terms of challenges with competitiveness within the eu and the need to shore up the defense industry? >> first, i think competitiveness is about investment, it's about productivity and here we are lagging behind in terms -- in comparison to u.s. and others. i think we have to push for investment. investment means better financial conditions. again, we are back to the european capital market. the second one is about energy.

energy prices are more than doubled. those in the u.s. and even higher than those in china. we have to work on a real energy policy at european levels. so these are the two major issues for competitiveness. the third one you mention his defense, yes, we have to invest in our defense industry. boldly, rapidly, urgently and this can only be done in a european context because these investments are quite important, quite huge. so we have to mobilize with resources to strengthen our defense industry as we have also to invest in our defense in general. so being less dependent, more autonomous on that has also a positive economic impact. tom: are we edging closer to collective defense spending and defense funding within europe? >> this is what i wish. this is what i think is the only reasonable way how to go.

because we are in the context of real threat, ukraine is one example, but we know that it could not just stop in ukraine. that's clear, the european option is a better collective defense. european, which does not exclude nato, but we all know that they have quite the question marks. europe has to be adult in terms of its own defense capacity. tom: before we let you go, if you win, if your group rent -- wins, you become european commission president. polls suggest you will come second, in which case with the european council presidency be up for grabs? is that what you would angle for? >> i think we have a system that is a system of lead candidates in the lead candidates of the winning or most important group

should become the president of the commission. if that is mean, i think it should be normal that the european council proposal is made the parliament. it is up then to the parliament to have a vote because that is how european democracy functions. tom: ok, nicholas schmidt, we appreciate your time, lead candidates of the party of european socialists in eu commissioner for jobs and social rights. as we lead up to those important parliamentary elections, eu elections next week. other stories making the news today. french president emmanuel macron says they must be allowed to target missile cruise inside russia with european supplied weapons. his comments, as forces are struggling to defend the kharkiv region from russian air attacks. >> how do we explain to the ukrainians that they must protect the areas around kharkiv? if we tell them you cannot of fat -- attacked the points from

where the missiles are being fired. we will tell them to deliver weapons but you cannot defend yourselves. so we are maintaining the same framework. we think we must allow them to neutralize the military sites where the missiles are being fired from, from where ukraine has been attacked from, but we cannot allow them to pursue other targets in russia. civilian or military. tom: the french president emmanuel macron. here in the u.k. labour party leader is determined to cancel tory claims that his party and shadow chancellor would increase further to -- further chances on britain's banks if it wins power at the general election. bloomberg understands labor is not looking to either impose on banks or increase the surcharge on banking company profits. bhp have until 5:00 p.m. today for a final takeover bid for anglo american, but will the mining giants iron out a final

deal? more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> is a change in mindset which puts competitiveness first. europe has had many years and all of anything else but competitiveness had priority, now we have a very detailed micromanagement of almost everything that omicron correctly address this issue yesterday saying we are competing when there are no rules involved for many areas. i think they have to revise the economic policy and has to reconsider its regulation and be more competitive.

>> how can remake the capital markets union an interesting topic for people? a lot of topics for people, a lot of promise for unlocking potential is there. how do you make the capital markets union sexy? >> it affects everybody, it affects people who are saving for whatever reason, for their pension or other purposes. they can do so most efficiently for the capital markets. so we need to organize an environment where the people can invest, can save, and we need to readjust our pension schemes and directed more towards using the capital markets. that is one sexy point. no matter whether they need bank financing, traditional bank financing, securitization could help make it cheaper, help combined the bank financing traditional sme financing for

banks with the enormous potential of the capital markets. for start ups, it's also necessary and really vital to have capital markets in place. so i think these are relevant and special issues for all society. tom: ok, german deputy finance minister talking about the sexiness or not. some other stories making the news this wednesday. bloomberg understands that siemens energy is cutting 4100 jobs in its troubled wind turbine unit. it comes as they enter talks on structural changes. the group has spiraling pressures on internal when unit issues with affected turbines which could cost billions of euros in losses. shareholders approve chevron's 53 billion dollar takeover despite reservations among several prominent investors about disputes with exxon mobil over a key asset.

the transaction still need to get past the trade commission as well as the ongoing arbitration case brought by exxon over control over the interest in a guyanese field. exxon has said the proceedings may drag into 2020 -- 2020 five. just hours left on the clock for australian mining giant bhp to convince anglo american on its ambitious $49 billion acquisition plan, the deadline to salvage the deal expires at 5:00 p.m. in london today. let's get more on the story with bloomberg's -- she was in singapore for us. what are we expecting? >> i am going to reach for the same football cliche that has been handed to me several times this morning, it is all still to play for. we have until 5:00 p.m. tonight, london time as you said. as far as we know the two sites are very close, only question is whether they can get over the

last concerns on the anglo american side, particularly regarding structure and the cost of some of what bhp wants to do with her south african assets. this is an iron ore business in the platinum business if they can get close enough, it's likely we will have an extension if not actually a final bid today. that would at least be progress. it is of course possible that they do not see -- and that one week is not enough and at one point bhp could walk away and would have to stay away for six months. tom: is that the crux of the disagreement, less about the value of this bid and more about the south african assets? >> it is really about the structure. if you look at the change in the initial rejections focused on undervaluing and what we find in rejection statements from targets. it was about undervaluing a complex structure. the recent statements have focused on the structure and a lot of that is about who carries the cost of restructuring the south african business.

that always has been the problem for anglo american. everyone knows the copper piece of it is brilliant, but what do you do with the south african assets? tom: what are we watching for? we have the 5:00 p.m. deadline and then the potential scenarios after that. >> up in it -- the potential scenarios are they agree and we will see a firm bid from bhp. if they do know it but see enough space to potentially reach that, we could see another extension. anglo has to ask for that so you have to see some competence from the anglo board that they could see movement on the bhp side otherwise bhp walks away and has to stay away for six months. if that happens, it is not the end. it's a marathon, not a sprint. the anglo board would have six months to make park -- progress with her self-help plan. if they do not, they become a target again and not just for bhp. tom: the self-help plan of

thank you very much in terms of the latest with what we hand down to the latest in terms of the offering, 5:00 p.m. u.k. time. plenty more coming up. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> i've been asked many times would we take potential interest rate increases off the table? i don't think anybody has formally taken them off the table, even me. i say that we could see it here for as long as necessary until we get convinced that inflation is sustainably going back to our 2% target. i'm not ruling out potential interest rate increases from here, but i think standing where we are is the more likely outcome. but of course if we get surprised, then we will do what we need to do.

tom: minneapolis fed president neel kashkari, i am not ruling out further interest rate increases from here. not a voting member, but clearly any comments where you put a potential hike with all the caveats back on the table, there a market nervousness to that kind of hawkish commentary. in terms of the resilience of the u.s. economy, which again, neel kashkari flag in that speech yesterday in london, the strength of the consumer is part of that picture and here's what's happening in terms of consumer confidence that came out yesterday above all estimates. but it also speaks to a bifurcated consumer in the u.s. it picked up in terms of survey, but was also picked up was expectations from the survey, the consumer in the u.s. about concession risks. the concerns about concession grow us the confidence more broadly across the consumer base group. but you break it down, and it's those with exposure to higher networks, individuals in the u.s., consumers and the u.s. with exposure to the u.s. equity market that seems to be more

confident given the rally in the run-up that we've seen for the stock markets. those that don't have that exposure are feeling much more glum. you have to break it down to see a picture of u.s. consumer. you are getting the fed out later today in terms of building out picture of the resilience, the relative resilience of that u.s. economy. if we are starting to see cracks, we see this across global bond markets in the session today is the lack of demand, the relatively tepid demand for the auction. $70 billion with a five year options. two-year auction than a five-year. it was the weakest demand in over a year. seven your auction later today, leading concerns to some to leave to the yields and treasuries. more demand for higher yields. softer demand, higher yields and that potentially is a concern. we think about the cutie operations of the federal reserve only saw eight basis point move in terms of benchmarks. let's flip the board and see and have a little reflection of

what's happening in the technology space. nvidia in the run-up continues of 20% since the earnings report which blew past all estimates up 20% adding 470 billion u.s. dollars. $470 billion since the earnings report. it is now closing in on the $3 trillion mark. a 7% pop in the shares for nvidia yesterday. that lifted the nasdaq. let's flip the board to the record high. futures pointing to pressures on the back of that yesterday. but the enthusiasm around nvidia linking to ex ai's musk challenger and the fact that they raised six billions, reported suggested he could spend 6 billion on h 100 chips made by nvidia. again, pushing that story the nasdaq to fresh records. in terms of what else is happening, it is the election story in south africa that remains in focus. polls closing 8:00 p.m. later

today u.k. time. our coverage of south africa's election continues. stay tuned. we will have an interview with the managing director on expectations amongst the market that may be a more benign scenario that comes out and maybe some of those reforms are starting to pay off with all the economic challenges of that country. that interview 9:30 a.m. on the pulse. we will also be speaking to a shipping executive. really interesting given what we see in the red sea. at 3:30 p.m. u.k. time. up next it is markets today. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ >> good morning from london. here's what you need to know. bonds selloff over night after neil kash