it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. we have been able to reach over 100 million people impacted and affected, and at risk of hiv. the rocket fund takes all of the work that we're doing, all over the world, and looks at the most effective ways, to get resources to them, to get services to them. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything. ♪

>> good morning. this is bloomberg daybreak europe. these are the stories that set your agenda. donald trump is found guilty on all 34 counts becoming the first former u.s. president to be convicted in a criminal case. crucial data on both sides of the atlantic. investors watch for the trend for their preferred trend. and we'll preview the numbers. bloomberg reveals that u.s. officials are slowing ample i. chip exports amid a national security review sending shares of n have you had yeah and am d-loor. let's check on some of these financial assets are trading. the hand over from the market not yet emerged. the chipmaker supplies to the

middle east. we saw n have you had yeah drop 3.5%. today, you can see that the pictures are still not pretty europe stocks are slightly up. photechy similar by the nasdaq is still seen dragging. we rally five basis points with that risk off move yesterday in the u.s. session. u.n. focus we have that c.p.i. data coming through. it's not just that number that we're looking for, also european c.p.i. data that we're watching for at 10:00 a.m. london time. gold back in the picture coming off record highs. still up 14% for the year irks eking out some gains by the end of this week. it has been a major recipient in terms of safe haven flow and on expectations of easier monetarily policy coming out of

the feds. all eyeses on the energy complex. we will be talk about that throughout the course of this show. for now, let's see how the asian markets are fareing. >> yeah, jumada, somehow it is risk on. the stock bench mark is sessions three-session losing streak. the gauges are right. -- rising.good news for markets. perhaps the optimism that we'll see more policy support whether it's because of that softer usdg. or china's p.m.i. on the factorial tentative run missing the mark. that might prompt some expectation of how the stabilization for the property sector might be a bit more forceful. this is what seeing among stocks. today, we also got those tokyo

c.p.i. numbers and the gaugele rose. and this was driven mainly by the renewable energy surcharge. not quite because of the wage growth pumping that was the d.o.j. wants to see but it's still it's rising trending in the right direction this could prompt the nationwide price trend next month could also reaccelerate and that seems to be spurring bets and the d.o.j. continues to have those rate hikes. the treasure is on the japanese bonds. we're seeing the yen moving closer to 1.567 against the dollar. but all things considered you're seeing dollar china dollar yen being sideways in anticipation of the core. let's flip the board and take a look at what we're seeing in china on the manufacturing perform m.i. really missed the mark. this was the biggest miss in

more than a yee. it is coming through from output and new orders an why this is raising concern that the activity is because this is a sector that the authorities have been relying on to drive growth. and there are some concerns as we head into the u.s. elections. we might see a ratcheting up of trade tensions that could put pressure on manufactures. jumana? jumana: avrel thank you so much for the overview. our top story, donald trump has been found guilty and the first former u.s.' be con convict. it is a verdict that could reshape the political landscape five months before today. >> this was a disgrace. this was a rigged trial by a

conflict judge who was crept. a rigged trial. a disgrace. they would give you venue teams. we had 5% or 6% in this district in this area. >> a good place to start would be for us to talk about exactly what president trump had been charged with. and then what happens next? >> yes, this is 34 counts as you mentioned of falsifying business records to hide a hush money payment to stormy daniels. about $130,000. the argument that the prosecution was doing this was crucial information that the voters needed to determine if they wanted someone to be

president. of course, that has been now confirmed by about the 12 jurors unanimously in this trial. what happens next is a little bit hazy here. the next step will be the sentencing. it's four weekdays before the republican national convention where the g.o.p. will officially likely confirm president trump as the nominee. he is the presumptive nominee. it's a question of what does that sentencing look like? he is eligible for up to four years in prison at this moment. >> if he is sentenced to prison, the expectations that they would appeal and then the next question becomes how long does that appeal process run for? but let me ask you, how is it likely to affect trump's presidential run into this round of elections? >> if you look at the poehling

it's split because they have con paired the policy between trump and biden. they're pretty similar. they had said that a unanimous verdict on this jury could sway their minds. however, we have seen historically going into some of his criminal investigations even including the case against him that he was a part of the capital riots or at least encouraging him. that would eliminate from the presidential race even in the face of that, you've seen the republicans that have rallied around him really say, look, this is more of a reflection of the justice system than any wrong doing on his par and still lead in the polls that the develop is still prepared to make him nominee. >> tracey, thank you so much for the overview. such a huge moment in u.s. political history. investors are looking ahead for the release of for more clues on interest rates. lowery logan said rates may not be restraining the economy.

by contrast, john williams said there may be enough evidence that it is working on bring inflation down. >> looking at the broader context provides ample evidence that the monetarily policy is restricted in a way that helps us achieve our goals. we're seeing clear and consistent signs between the balances of supply and demand. we've seen a broad base decline in inflation. >> let'sen up the conversation with illinois. william seems pretty convinced that the interest rate level where it needs to be in order to start bringing down inflation. the question is where does he expect inflation to end up given how restrictive rates are? >> well, nothing super surprising. but he did say ultimately that we're looking at maybe 2.5% by

the end of this year. still obviously well outside of the inflation tart. i think what this is telling us is that we're seeing fairly -- at least one fed cut rate this year that seems to be something -- we've been getting out of this fed. but the ben officials aren't going wait for it to fall back down before they start making those cuts. what we need to look for is as a lot of these officials have been saying over the past several weeks is this idea of several sustained months that actually shows that they're making some progress, that they're actually trending towards the target. we'll see what the latest plan will tell us later today. that's really the feds' flavor. we're actually going to see the slowest monthly increase there

and it's all here. that would indicate that there has been some level of progress that we're going to continue to make. a lot of the officials have been out. they really want to see that sustained cooling in that inflation gauge over the next several months as they fine tune exactly when they may be making that first cut. >> yeah, the skeptic in me is saying they're still at 3:00%. let that was bloomberg's gia. >> the ruling a. n. c. falls well short of a majority leaving it to seek a coalition to retain power. jennifer is at the national result and mid runs. and jennifer, it seems that just over 51% of the yet are going to

be count. it doesn't look good at a.n.c. at this point. >> that's really the septemberment that we are feeling that point in time and really the discussion right now and not just that, it's surprising how weed so that they can predicted. but really the other story here too is really the votes that were taken from the a.n.c. to jacob zumas party. it is tracking to be third biggest party with support in terms of the support and rule areas. surprisingly well. and that was scene seen as aquation nair area. potentially dangerous area. they were concerned about this going into this selection. and so the question is, does this continue to hold out as we get more votes in? and we should caveat this by

saying and you mentioned this in the intro, just over 51% of the votes counted. the election commission here is anticipate that they'll be able to finish. we could see the ruling party get back support in particular here, which is one of the most popular progresses. >> this seems to be a referendum from a lot of the rural voters here in south carolina. concerned with the direction of the company and what ruling party has said over the past few years. which parer in if they are to start at what is likely to be a new era of coalition government. which of these will they team up with? >> yes, and that is the big question. certainry it seems to be -- thank you. also coming up, on the shore,

u.s. officials flow the exports sighting national security conversation and m have you had yeah set to be affected. >> plus, catch our exclusive interview at the shagrilav dialogue. that's later this hour. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak europe. bloomberg understands that u.s. officials have slowed the issuing of licenses to ship makers like nvidia and iamd. the moves comes as officials conduct a national security review of a.i. developments in the region. let's get more from peter

elmstrom. maybe tell us a little bit more about why the u.s. are apparently slowing down these export licenses granding of these export licenses. what is the reasoning for this move? >> sure. it's important to distinguish what the u.s. is doing here and what it's not doing. it is not stopping the shipments. it's slowing them down. they want to do a national security review of exactly where they're going, what they're being used if, what kind of applications are being developed by some of these middle eastern countries. a.i. accelerators come from nvidia corporation which has become a dominant player in a.i. chips. they're used to train the a.i. models. they're a player here. but a much, much smaller player. what we saw in 2022 is that the u.s. put export controls on the

export of these chips in china. after this, we saw a huge development in particular. u.s. is getting a lot of this money. china and the u.s. are the primary development and nubs the past. but we've seen an increase in the am of investments in the middle east. the complexity is that it's not clear how the a.i. applications are going to be used and who they're going to be used for in the middle east, they will be working with chinese companies or other asian companies as well. they're trying to see how they're being used especially the high volume shements. where are they going to go before they grant more licenses to the likes of nvidia and m.d.? >> we werier we were talk talking about the yeso and nvidia had to sell off.

what does it mean for the companies involved? >> nvidia has been a rocket ride. it's a 2.7 investors. jason wing said they can sell as this point. the biggest or customers are all the big american tech giants led by microsoft and google until particular. it's also selling it to other regions. so their sales are not isn't it part of their sells that point and they certainly respect ainge to get alternative first him. there's some others intel that are trying to get into this ground. but for them, it could mean a little bit to a slowdown in sales. they ex-- extend the seem -- >> , yeah such an interesting

story. we're going to keep monitoring. we put out as a clothes there for nvidia, more than 3.8%. that was bloomberg's peter elmsstrom. your grid needs a $640 billion upgrade. we'll look at the challenge to achieve net zero by 50. this is bloomberg.

♪ >> opec have told us the group is moving closer to an agreement that may stretch into 2025. let's get more on this story ahead of sunday's meeting with markets reporter anthony with me here in cubism interesting story from our bloomberg team that they're considering the extensions all the way into

2025. does that tell us if they go go ahead. it is a reflection of how week they see the global economy. >> we're seeing signs that the market is going to look washington next year -- weaker next year. and prices will be lower than average. there are concerns about the strength of demand, growth. we are expecting demand to start growing. we've seen records bringing in. that's expected to to keep going. how much capacity is coming online because we have a strong growth in the u.s. we've had growth in brazil, giana. some of the opec people want to produce. so some of those done are producing more than they have pledged to. we'll see what happens. these are some of the effort.

let's talk more about the demand picture. we had some weaker factory datas. and the signal is coming out of china has not been so positive. how is that likely to impacting the outlook for al? >> there's some -- outlook for the oil? >> there's a major impacting. so when the products markets go down. and the refiners need to produceless, they're going to ask forless crude oil. that will demand that day. we are seeing a lots of oil on the quarter. and so that supply coming in is going decrease. some of if -- some of the demand there. >> we do see lot of demand for oil burning in that power stations before it tarps off. plus, the u.s. driving season. a lot. those things are bottom.

they're trying to look -- weaker months going forward. >> up with thing to keep in mind is i've been reading about china building their own stock miles. something to feed that too. >> let's talk to anthony. >> time now for their deep -- on the green energy transition. one of your biggest challenges on the road is building more power lines and the vast in factment that is needed. sole' must start off by asking you, how much europe is going to have to spend on these grits >> well, last year, europe spent about. it is produce to where it's consumed. it's been trending up. out to the end of the decade spend $440 billion and doubled

to $100 billion. if you look further out has a second cycle of spin. it happens after 2035. you end up with these two discrete cycles of investment that is need to build out this net power system. >> and is it a case of just expanding the grid to accommodate new renewables? how about more e.v.'s needing to be charged. >> it's a bit of both. reknuble and e.v.'s. i think when you look at the first spin cycle, renewables really take the first front seat. they're about 40% of the capital expend cure to -- after 2025 you end up with e.v.'s. electrification of industry.

general load growth. when you zoom back, you end up with a double spin profile. the one is decarbonizing degeneration and the first is to get into that electrified 10 energy. how is all of this going to get financed? >> the financing question is one of on top of mind. i think one interesting way of looking at this data is by normalizing it. be by the amount of consumption. when you see that -- great pressure is really highest this decade. and then it falls. out to 2050 because there's more consumption to pay for that. they're trying to look for. not in this type official or others. what that means is long-term ability to be able to move some

of that investment. it's going to be needed this decade into the later half of the -- the transition the 2015 is going to be an important part of financing that's investment. >> so interesting. thank you so much for joining us today. download the switched on podcast on apple, spotify or whatever you. donald trump found guilty on all 24 counts in his hush money trial, a verdict that could help ahead of the election? we'll bring you the latest. th

♪

>> these are the stories that set your agenda. tltro is found guilty, becoming the first u.s. president to be convicted in a criminal case. investors watch for the preferred inflation print. it we preview the numbers. opec-plus is moving closer to an agreement. we look ahead to the meeting. what's get you caught up on markets. risk off transpired yesterday, wall street taking a turn south. nasdaq lowering suggesting the

u.s. is slowing down licenses for chipmaker sales. the big story overnight. the nasdaq is opening down 3/10 of 1%. s&p futures are weaker. in terms of other assets, 10 year yield is above 4.5%, risk off became the theme. euro sideways, gold coming off record highs, greener today and brent is $81, shy of $82 with a big meeting this sunday. donald trump has been found guilty in the first criminal trial of a former u.s. president in history.

a jury convicted him on 34 counts and district attorney alvin bragg who brought the case spoke after the verdict. alton: while this defendant may be unlike any other, we arrived at this trial and this verdict in the same manner as every other case. following the facts and the law and doing so without fear or favor. joumanna: major story. let's get more. we have all been watching this court case playing out. many paid attention to what michael cohen had to say, former trump ally.

give us details about how this came to be and how the jury came to this conviction? reporter: a conviction of 34 counts of falsifying business records to stormy daniels delivered by michael cohen, to the value of $130,000. he is the star witness saying i delivered and i can prove it is true. the concern was this was vital info needed ahead of the 2016 election. it hid the fact of donald trump's character. when it comes to star witnesses, michael coleman was a game changer and alvin bragg is the

lead prosecutor and new york state attorney. this is crucial in terms of the bias that trump alleges exists within the judge. merchant has been a judge of other cases around trump, so there had been moved by the defense to remove him from the case proving to not come true. joumanna: mmm. the sentencing date is july 11. what happens if trump is sentenced to jail? kriti: the sentence could be four years in prison. likelihood is low. one factor is the lack of precedent when we talk about a

candidate and former president. there are security concerns that the judge indicated will be part of his thinking and his age will be a big one and impact on the wider voter rhetoric. this is the same case around the federal reserve not making decisions because of how it changes the voter demographic. july 11 is four days before the gop convention, crucial when it comes to the timing and whether they decided an appeal would be valid. joumanna: mmm. let's remind viewers this is not the only case ongoing versus the former resident.

three other criminal charges still being brought so what is the status of the other three and what are we watching out for? kriti: this case is brought by violations of state law so even with this conviction he is a legible to run for president. we are talking about cases in washington, georgia, florida. in the constitution they say if you are convicted of treason you cannot run for president, whether he instigated it those are the cases we are waiting to hear from.

you can see the republican base has only gotten bigger despite allocations. joumanna: thank you very much for the extensive overview. turning back to markets, the dollar is steady. core pce indicator so let's bring in mark cudmore. good to have you with us. let's talk about the expectation that it will see how, were looking at 2.7%, comfortably above 2%. mark: we have sticky inflation for a while because the service component is sticky but

commodity prices are high, shipping prices are going up. if it is a soft print we will get a big dip. if it is hot the rise in yields will create demand. the dip will be bought because we have rebalancing and a bunch of flows regardless though the bigger backdrop is upward pressure. there is demand to buy treasuries. joumanna: mmm. we've got the ecb on thursday and they may start their rate cutting cycle, but it feels many dialed down expectations of

subsequent rate cuts, what is on their minds? mark: i am -- time -- i am with the consensus that there needs to be rate cuts. we will price in more from the ecb. they want more cuts, a dovish component in the reaction is dovish. the fact is german growth and european growth is not positive. less pessimistic and inflation is not going away. global issues and sticky inflation so i don't think the ecb will deliver cups so the theme of pressure is global. not just a fed story.

ecb will price more rate cuts. overpriced at the moment. joumanna: mmm. mmm. and let's not forget about jgb's. thank you for joining us on the show. that was mark cudmore. coming up, we talked to lithuania's prime minister on defense in singapore next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> disinflation has taken place. we see pressures on the u.s.. moderating in the second half of the year. joumanna: that was john williams

about the impact on inflation of rates. we have a pce print, let me show you a chart because the expectation was it will be dropping and moderating around 0.25% which keeps the rate at 2.7% and this is what core pce looks like over the last six months. the trend is downwards although stickier than some hoped. the other chart this boil. this is positioning futures, i.e. speculators positioning for lower prices has reached the highest level since 2020, quite extreme. there could be a squeeze if there is a surprise this

weekend. plenty more coming up, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ joumanna: u.s. president joe biden says ukraine can launch munitions against russia after mounting pressure from allies. russian gains are feeling fears in the baltic regions. there is an annual gathering of defense officials and haslinda is there with a guest. reporter: it is crucial ukraine wins the war. with me is the lithuanian prime minister.

it is important ukraine wins and the question is how? >> we all know what we have to do to help ukraine because we see determination in the country flat by family integrity is there despite doubts and problems. with weapons and support in congress for ukraine adopted we know this is there. we need to provide ukraine with help and on the other side we need to reduce capacities of russia with sanctions, restrictions to gain money to finance the war. haslinda: you talk about

assistance. who should it come from? what the u.s. can do? guest: level of support differentiates across countries. for lithuania this is a number that is 1% of gdp but we are a small country so 1% is not huge in terms of actual nominal value of support. when we compare what countries are doing in terms of capacity for gdp, it is lower, different calculation saying everyone providing at least .5% of gdp in the aquatic world, big difference to what is there. looks like smaller countries tend, it is a ratio calculated

based on value of weapons to the country gdp in terms of the volumes of course u.s. and germany providing big amounts of -- of -- of support, but each country can do more and look at what is doing well. haslinda: lithuania has troops on the ground. is it something ukraine asked for? >> this is long-standing exercise where we train ukrainian soldiers before invasion. long-lasting cooperation between military forces in ukraine, we train them in the countries. we would train them in ukraine in partnership with other countries willing to do so.

haslinda: how are you assessing a win for ukraine? guest: it depends on us, because along the way we are in the third year and there were episodes of hesitation about whether ukraine can withstand, we were always certain they would fight back and we need to provide support. capabilities of smaller countries are smaller than bigger countries and it took a while for countries to say can we provide vehicles, this, that, will ukraine be able to defend and we see it is stable in the third year, still standing and holding the line so it is our duty to do what we can.

haslinda: lithuania says nato is keeping its safe. it is among the countries that is vulnerable to russia's goals. how are you looking at how may to token prevent such things from happening? guest: it is two-way street, not only nato, but each member of nato and i think we were among the first to sort of learned the lesson from 2014, increased our defense spending now close to three and this will continue for a long time because article three comes before article five, he mindful and then rely on partners. the mindset of our partners who were reluctant to increase defense spending is changing and

what we see now, country by country planning to increase or increasing defense, commitment of german government to with the laney and others. this is what it's about because the eastern flank due to its proximity to countries that cannot live with the idea that countries can decide for themselves, this is a threat. we need to adapt actions. we had two members of nato recently joining, something not in debate five years ago and now it is a fact the whole situation and security is changed for

good. >> trump was convicted of all 34 counts but it does not stop him from being the next president and now we know he said he may be less committed tomato. how are we assessing possibility? guest: you hear quite a lot of rhetoric that you are not sure what part you need to take into account. and what is the real thinking so it happens and i remember the debate about nato during the term of president trump and that was the very remark for europeans that you have to be mindful that russia is in europe and this is the closest proximity so take commitment

seriously, not rely on u.s. guarantees and not all countries heard the message. we made this decision ourselves because russia invaded and annexed crimea -- crimea. the politicians in the baltic states agreed to, but not all countries and now we are in the third year of invasion and this change the mindset of most, most european countries. defense spending increasing, sort of commitment for collective security becoming stronger. haslinda: you have the european election coming up, how much is at stake? prime minister: lots is at stake because ukraine realized support

of allies like u.s. 4 -- four dashboard particular countries provide significant amount of weapons and financial support, where european union is very important because we provide significant chunk of money for ukraine to meet daily needs because it is important. state need to be run and tensions need to be paid. european union is very important part, we cannot think we've nothing to do with it so the leadership, the president of commissioners should stay there. haslinda: we have to leave it there. prime minister of lithuania giving her assessment on the outlook when it comes to ukraine. heading back to you. joumanna: thanks for that

interview. one line stood out in the fact that she said security has changed. in response to the question about nato and the need for the article five to be beefed up by european nations. interesting commentary. help me to come not just for ukraine but applying sanctions. that is it but later on bloomberg television do not miss our interview with ed from dubai and guy johnson. up next is markets today, this is bloomberg.

it's an amazing thing when you show generosity of spirit to someone. and you want people to be saved and to have a better life, then you don't stop. the idea that we have saved five million people's lives, it's overwhelming. it's everything.

>> good morning, here is what you need to know. the