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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  May 31, 2024 10:00am-11:00am EDT

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katie: we are 30 minutes into the trading day and here are the top stories we're following. core pce cools, the fed's favored inflation measure reinforces views there is room to run this year. the ai race failed to impress the street. david jones is the ceo of grand tech and joins us with the ai roadmap. stellantis plans to introduce a $25,000 jeep as it unveils a new all electric suv. we will kick the tires in just a bit. ♪
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katie: i'm katie greifeld, welcome to bloomberg markets on this friday. we see some fading enthusiasm on the board behind me. the s&p 500 is currently not changed. some of the gains are coming out now and more so if you look at the nasdaq. your big tech indexes sinking to end this week. we are seeing a rally in the bond market. the 10 year treasury yield is lower by 5-6 basis wanes. we are below 4.5% but that's not helping big tech. let's talk about the pce figures. the fed's preferred measure of u.s. inflation is moderating in april. michael mckee has the details. you've had 90 minutes to go through the details, what was behind we saw in april?
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mike: we saw some of the areas we expected to see get some disinflation back including used cars and housing but not by very much. it was a moderate victory for the anti-inflation crowd with pce falling 0.2% for the core and 0.3% rising. no changes year-over-year. we saw a slowdown in spending which went from 0.7% in march 20 point 2% in april and incomes did not rise as fast as they have been, led by wages up only 0.2%. at this point, it may give us some evidence that the debate among fed officials of whether they are tight enough is falling
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on the side of maybe tight enough. katie: let's talk about real personal spending. it was expected to rise about 0.1% but it dropped by about one -- 0.1%. should i be worried at that? mike: i don't know if you're trying to find something to worry about but this is not something to worry about. it's expected that spending would slow because the fed is tightening credit and trying to slow the economy and inflation is coming down. there is less of an inflation add into spending. most of what happened was spending this past month was and services, up 0.4%. there is a 0.2% decline in goods bending net tracks with the numbers we seen for auto sales and the service industries. katie: have a great weekend when you get there. thank you so much.
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let's bring the conversation to the markets and we will do that with steve sosnick. i need you to explain what's going on. we had this premarket gain in the s&p 500 and the nasdaq 100. it all went proof, what's going on? >> good morning. i think what happens today is we had an initial relief rally. the futures traders physically in the premarket are pretty much set up to play rallies. depending when you wake up, you will see the futures typically up a little bit and then they rise and assuming the numbers ok , today was less at than expected. that was the next signal to rally into the open. that faded out because you need someone to follow. you can't just ramp up futures without any follow-through. i think we had a bit of a seachange in the technical nature of the stock market from that big reversal we saw last
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thursday. it's taken a few days but that's the signal usually that we may have had a short-term top and when we took out the lows yesterday, that tells us at least in the near-term, things are not necessarily as rosy as we are used to. katie: not to read too much into one single day price action, you have a rally in the bond market. you look at yields and they are solidly lower. it feels like yields going higher to not hurt the equity market on the way up and out yields rallying below 4.5% on the tenure is not helping things out today. >> that's exactly it. for a while, stocks had been ignoring higher yields for most of this year so far. the reason was as we were pricing in a stronger economy, we were pricing out bond yields. as a result, the stock market can rally in the face of higher yields. this month, it petered out.
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the rate cut expectations have bottomed out at the one or two level having been at six and seven which was unsustainably optimistic earlier. this is a bit more realistic but the stock market in may continued to charge ahead while ignoring the bond market to some extent. now that the bond market is getting more helpful, ignorance may be coming back to haunt us a little bit. katie: maybe the outlook is not as rosy. are there any necessary headwinds? what could go wrong at this point? >> there is always something. what goes wrong is usually what you least expect. in turn -- in terms of the known/unknown, one of the big things to keep in i on is the nvidia stock on june 10 or 11
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because the market is extraordinarily dependent upon nvidia these days. this has been a phenomenal thing for that stock and its holders and for the market in general. that makes is a bit more susceptible if there is a little give up after the stock splits. in general, i think the conflicting signals we are getting out of the economy leave us susceptible to a hiccup in one direction or another. people only want to listen to what jay powell says they don't provide a lot of weight to the supporting cast. i think we are getting mixed messages from them and in general, a lot of them are more hawkish than the fed chair who tends to sound dovish even when he's trying to be hawkish. these are the type of things that can trip us up as we get into the next couple of weeks. katie: not going as far as talking about rate hikes but still a hawkish tilt
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nonetheless. when it comes to known/unknown, let's talk about political risk with history made yesterday with a guilty verdict for donald trump. do you think that matters for equity markets? >> no, it's an extraordinarily inconsequential news. it's historic but i will leave that to the other commentators who understand the politics and the government of a better than i do. you are -- you shouldn't look for people in the markets to interpret geopolitical events. markets are terrible at this. they don't understand how geopolitical effects the bottom-line companies. might know how the geopolitical events will affect sales and earnings at walmart or costco. from a broad market point of view, this becomes background noise because it doesn't
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necessarily translate into the things that investors are good at meaning what will this do to revenues or bottom lines were cash flows. is very nebulous. there is still a lot of political noise and it doesn't necessarily resolve anything in terms of clarity about how the election outcomes may affect the market. it's there but it's just really in the background. i hate to call it a distraction because it's not, it's far too consequential. as far as markets are concerned, is not a market event. katie: that's a great point, maybe not a great consequence to the actual markets but when you talk about political history, let's talk about the election. there was an article in the terminal this week or last week talking about if you take a look at the vix curve, you are seeing a premium start to get priced in for october. if you are looking to hedge the election, do you do it through vix futures or is there a more
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sophisticated way to do it? >> in many ways, is the simplest way to do it. the market has gotten hit to the idea of pricing in election risk. traders have learned the hard way. it's important to remember why october vix is where you see it. vix is a 30 day look at heads with the market's best estimate of volatility over the coming 30 days. the october futures which expire mid-october is the time that covers the election more directly than november would which expires mid-november after the election. it can be a little counterintuitive but we are seeing that bump. volatilities in general have been very low. they have risen considerably in the last week or so since we've had this many turnabout in the market. -- this many turnabout -- this mini turnabout in the market.
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the number of ets that cell volatilities are great. during any positive moves in the market, volatility tends to be suppressed. katie: that's a good place to end it and i always enjoy speaking with you and our thanks. let's take a look at what's moving underneath these markets. tell me what's going on with the app. >> this is a real turnaround story for gap. everyone should go on the bloomberg terminal and read the story by lily meyer. it's all about this undergoing transformation that gap has had after bringing in a new ceo. he was famed for revitalizing the barbie brand for mattel and since he was brought into gap about a year ago, the company has been embracing celebrity marketing. they put anne hathaway in a gap try -- in a gap dress at a red carpet event.
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i used to think of them as switchers and dreams and they are undergoing a transformation. you can see it's been paying off. comp sales beat estimates for all of the gap brands. they all beat expectations. you can see it in the stock price. this will be an interesting story to watch how they can continue that growth under the new ceo. katie: really impressive portfolio of brands and that gap logo is iconic. tell me about all talk. >> this is a beauty brand ul,ta but paring gains, up as much is 9% and only up about 1% now. . the company re--- recorded first quarter epa that -- cps that was a surprise. the ceo in april had warned of cooling demand and the beauty category. you look at analysts saying the guidance is more achievable but
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this uncertainty will continue to wait on the multiples. ulta is already down 20% year to date and you look at its rivals, net sales were ahead of estimates. we will have to see how this continues because it was up and now it's paring back those gains. katie: currently up by about 1.4% and it has been much higher. one of the biggest stories today is what's going on with dell. >> the biggest drop since about 2022. that's after the pc maker's strong pc service has failed to impress investors. i think this is a story of expectations being way too high heading into an earnings report. the stock was up a whopping 280% over the last year. the company came in and posted these fairly decent numbers and yet investors, it wasn't enough for them. you look at the revenue from the
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ai server sales more than doubled from the prior quarter to $1.7 billion in the company said it expects demand to continue through the year but yet it wasn't enough. the server sales came in strong and the prophet less so. morgan stanley said near-term expectations are getting at of themselves but they are confidently buying the dip today. it's a good day to buy the dip when the stock is down over 20%. katie: more of a wipeout then a dip at this point. incredible for dell, down 20%. thank you so much. coming up, the ai sprint is more of a marathon. we will speak with david jones and how companies can leverage the technology. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: the stock we are keeping an eye on this money is dell because it is falling at the companies ai service sales failed to impress investors. dell has been writing an ai way that seen the company stock more than triple for the past year. our next guest says the ai game is only in the first inning. there is david jones from brand tech, and ai marketing firm. if we truly are in the first inning, that means that there is the potential for a lot of winners but also a lot of losers. >> absolutely, when you talk about dell, they doubled their ai service sales in their stock plummets 20%. it has much more to do with the fact that the stock is up almost
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300% over the last 12 months. what i think it underscores is that all roads lead to nvidia. dell is still a fairly major company but they were very much the poster child of the pre-mobile world. nvidia is very clearly the poster child of the ai world. they have $26 billion of revenue in quarter one. 206 -- 276% growth. dell doubled their ai server is great but if you look in relative terms to 260 2% overall growth that nvidia, they are a laggard. katie: maybe we are in the second or third inning when the roads lead to nvidia. let's talk about your business. you are and ai marketing firm so maybe tell our audience what that means. are you using ai to make the answer using ai to identify
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where the opportunity is? >> we have a platform called pencil. it's been markets since 2018 and aggregates all of the best large language models and it uses them to create finished ads. it's unique because it doesn't just do an image or a video or text. it creates finished ads and plugs into the advertising accounts like tiktok and instagramming youtube. we have made over one million ads using generative ai across 5000 brands. we spent $1 billion of media through the platform which allows us to deliver predictions on what will work better. over that time, we've seen we can double the performance in terms of return on ad spend and correct the content 10 times faster and at least 50% cheaper. a great example is there is a campaign this week for a luggage company.
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quite a lot of work went into it but we were able to create over 1200 images. we refined that down to eight final images in eight final cities which we could do in six hours. if you compare that to the old way of working, people, 20 people would have gotten on planes and flown to tokyo and paris and athens and going all over the world and it would've been a major carbon footprint and in the new world, you can do that in six hours. katie: i'm sure there are people listening or worried hearing you talk. how much human oversight is there when it comes to creating ads with ai? i played around with chatgpt and it spit out some pretty crazy things. maybe it's a similar story when it comes to the ai you use. >> i personally think we will see the greatest creative revolution in history. i personally think this will be a fantastic thing for humans. there is about the same number of people who work in the
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traditional advertising industry did dead today as did 20 or 30 years ago. there is no 60 million people who live -- and bangka living in the greater economy. if the mobile phone made everyone a creator, i think this will be a huge creator of jobs and employment. if you look across human history, every time humans have had exceptional tools, we've done amazing things with them. a simple example like in the 1800s, over 90% of the world worked in farming or making food and today it's less than 2%. you can conclude there must be mass unemployment amongst humans but not. to answer the specific question, the reason pencil is called that is we believe it's a tool for humans to use but not a tool to replace humans. if we call artificial intelligence augmented intelligence, people would be
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more relaxed about it. what we see a do every day is important but it augments what the human can do. katie: i'm watching mad men for the first time ever now. i would love to see mad men set in 2024 but that's a different conversation. you've made over one million ads through pencil. is there any specific type of company industry that's more open to using ai than maybe others? >> at a big picture level, we are really at the start of what will be the most remarkable revolution. i feel like i've open the door and looked inside and seen that someone has created electricity and close the door and gone back into the real world. there is not a single thing the human brain does today you can't do better, faster and cheaper aided by artificial intelligence. where works best when it comes to advertising, its social content, digital content and
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tiktok videos and instagram posts. it does end to end so you can literally ask for insights as to what would be a better way of selling ice cream in winter for example. you can go to creating finished ads at a scale you can create in the old traditional world. katie: great to speak with you and we appreciate your time. our thanks to david jones. still ahead, we will look at the companies making the most social buzz today in our social climber segment up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you automate sales tax with avalara, you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates, exemption certificates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh
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katie: it's time for social climbers, look at the stocks making waves on social media this morning. first up is the company behind vance in its hiring the lululemon former head of product. it's attempting to leave a turner -- lita turnaround after
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it reported its seventh straight quarter of declines. membership based social club rejecting a buyout offer because it didn't reflect the company's value. a short seller suggested solo house may need -- may meet bankruptcy. chipotle is getting spicy feedback on social media after some tiktok and read it uses claim the mexican fast food chain is cutting back on portion sizes. the ceo disputes claims saying that disappointed customers can get more food by giving workers a secret look by widening your eyes and nodding your head when portions are being doled out. in any case, you can follow the latest company buzz on tren go on your bloomberg terminal. jeep is charging into the all electric suv category we will speak to the company ceo next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: we are just about an hour into the trading day on this friday. let's get a check on the markets with abigail doolittle. abigail: the smaller moves on the day but we are looking at declines for the week. it's the first time. the dow is down 2.4% and the nasdaq about the same amount in the s&p 500 down 1.6%. it's the worst week since april 19 so the bullishness in the month of may maybe disappearing. let's check in on a chart we haven't looked at for a while because it appears the s&p 500 may possibly be going back down
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into its range. out of the october lows, it's nicely above the 200 day moving hours. here is the 2024 range. hasn't felt that way but it charts that way over the last two days on three down days in a row. we are currently looking at the s&p 500 back down in the range. momentum is suggesting maybe we will see the s&p 500 go back to the lows near 5000 or below. a lot needs to happen for that to happen but it is a possibility. as for some of the individual areas we like to look at, let's put it into the world of ets. it's etf fry woul -- friday and volumes are needy. they are mainly down for many of these etf's. they are up about two .7% versus
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the 30 day average but for all these other sectors, real estate volume for etf's related to real estate down 35% versus the 30 day average. as for the etf's themselves, that's a pretty bullish picture for the month of may. spy up about 3.8%. at one point even higher on space for its best month since 2023. gold is higher and bond is higher but not so much for the dollar. the dollar is down. katie: happy etf friday to you. let's talk about cars because jeep is unveiling its first all electric suv in the u.s. the jeep wagon near s will retail for about $72,000 and hit the market this fall. we have the ceo of the jeep brand. let's talk about the price tag.
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72,000 dollars is relatively high compared to some of your competitors. talk us through the pricing strategy. >> the value we put in this is outstanding. this is the fastest jeep ever. it goes from 0-60 in less than 3.4 seconds in a range of 300 miles plus. 45 inches of usable experience -- of usable space inside. there is a sense of craftsmanship in the car with an unbelievably dynamic design. it's exactly in the middle of the suv segment. the preorder opened today.
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for clicks to get your car. you go to your dealer and you buy it so please do it. katie: there you go, point taken. we are talking about speed and features but even still, i'm curious to hear more about the jeep pricing strategy overall. the narrative out there is that prices are too high and jeep is losing share in the u.s. and inventory at dealerships is piling up. how do you adjust? do you cut prices or production? what's next? >> we will have a second half with new launches and product action. we will work on product competitiveness. we will give to our dealers more incentive to sell more jeeps and other stellantis cars. we believe the second half a bit the perfect time to adjust inventory while we work on technology and innovation and
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product compatibility and price. katie: through price and incentives, sound like production levels are not necessarily going to change there. >> production i believe can stay at the level it is. we will monitor it week by week. maybe some fine-tuning is needed but the point is to heat up sales. to do that, we launch product action associated to price competitiveness. katie: addressing that through demand and trying to boost demand rather than supply. i want to talk about something the ceo of stellantis said. that's your parent company and they said the company plans to roll out a $25,000 ev in the u.s. very soon. how soon is very soon. >> i confirm but i cannot say how soon. in the next one year, jeep has three important launches on the
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same platform. today use jeep wagon near s to preorder online. then you will have another one in three months and then you will have another one but i cannot say the name. it will compete in the mainstream suv segment. we have three jeep cars on the same platform built in north america and in the test and designed by american engineers that will be available to the market in less than 12 months in the core of the market which is the mid suv segment. it's a segment of 4.2 million units sold. it's the largest segment on the planet. jeep will have three in less than one year. katie: it's four clicks to preorder that jeep. i understand you won't tell me the name or specifics on the timing of when we could see that $25,000 ev but i have to make
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some news here. can you give us any color on where it will be built? what platform will you use? >> the three cars i mentioned will be built in mexico on a large platform. the 25,000 ev jeep will be built later so after this year. we are still identifying the plants. the platform is what we call stella's mall which is a very competitive platform and that's why we are able to build such a big value jeep branded into 25,000 ev. we have other options. our strategy is freedom of choice which means out of the seven in the market, we will offer six in our range.
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we are launching extended range next year. that will happen in the next 12 months and later. katie: a lot to keep an eye on when it comes to jeep in your future plans, i'm curious about what your ambition is when it comes to where you are geographically. i spoke to our resident car guy this morning and he made the point that there aren't many jeep dealers in europe. if you want to buy a car there, you have to do it through an importer. how global do you want to be when it comes specifically to jeep? >> we are the most global brand of stellantis. last year we sold one million units with 70% of north america but 15% is america and 15% is europe and the rest of the world. our global stance gives us the opportunity to assess on global scales. volume means to a brand of cas the possibility of
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synergy to a higher resource and investing more. to be global is very important for jeep. we are deep into american roads. we are the most patriotic brand overall. this is recognized by americans. there is a survey that states that jeep is the most value oriented brand overall. we come in before mcdonald so we are very recognized as american but we are global. this gives us access to global scale which is important when it comes to product development. katie: i want to talk about your commitment to battery electric vehicles versus hybrids which a lot of your competitors are pivoting more heavily two. how are you thinking about that as you look to the future? will you double down on full ev's for maybe the future looks
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more hybrid? >> we have the possibility to offer absolutely everything. our strategy is freedom of choice and gives the flexibility to put out many innovations. we are in a moment where the growth of the vehicle is there but not at the level we thought. we will launch very soon extended range. we will launch after a big success. [indiscernible] to jeep, the point is, how much time do we need to offer on that platform?
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our engineering gives us the positive billion six months on the same platform for one powertrain to another. katie: before i let you go, tell me about the future of gas powered jeeps. will you keep producing them or scale back production? >> we are producing them for sure. it's the powertrain that we want to offer. katie: still committed to the gas powered vehicle. we appreciate your time and i know it's a busy day for you. he is the ceo of jeep. coming up, we will hear from neil ferguson, the hoover institution senior fellow and joins us to talk about the economic impact of falling fertility rates. this is bloomberg. ♪
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abigail: the boca capital partner joins bloomberg tv at 3 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ katie: it's time for our daily wall street week conversation. host david westin spoke with neil ferguson at the hoover institution about his concerns about population growth. >> when you and i were young, the world worried about a population boom that would be a crisis named after the great 18th-century political, most where overpopulation would lead to famine and disaster. it was those ideas back in the 60's and 70's that led to some drastic population all lessees, not least the one child policy in china. in the 20 20's, it turns out the law of unintended consequences has struck again. we now are facing significant population declines. it's not only in asian countries
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but right across the globe except in africa. it looks as if you can debate the exact timing, humanity will peak in the 20 60's and we will get to the maximum population probably way below the 10 billion mark and after that, population will decline and decline pretty steeply. this is easy to illustrate with the case of china where the population is forecast to decline by half between now and the end of the century. it's not just a chinese story. it's ultimately a global story. this is a trend that i think most people haven't fully grasp. it's a little bit out of the average person's planning horizon. david: why do we have fertility rates going down in so many countries around the world? >> that's not the easiest question i've been asked today.
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explaining why in all kinds of different contexts, households have chosen to reduce the number of children they have below the replacement rate. it's typically said that the average couple has to have 2.1 children and there is no such thing as .1 of a child but just above to for us to maintain population. obviously, there are some people who die prematurely and perhaps even in childhood. the lure replacement rate is 2.1 per couple but all over the world, couples have taken that number down below to any countries like south korea, the fertility rate is below one on average. the one child family has become the norm in east asia and it is rapidly spreading around the world. population in the united states has continued to grow only because of immigration. it's not because of a natural increase.
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in the united states as a most western countries, the average fertility rate fell sometime ago below 2.1. there are all kinds of explanations you can advance. maybe it's the attitude of women that changed because women began to pursue more ambitious careers in the wake of feminism. maybe it's just as society has become more economically advanced, people decide to spend the resources not in having more children but more vacations or requiring yachts and mcmansions. there are a bunch of different text nations at work. i drilled down to the south korea case and the answer i got from the south koreans i talked to was it's so expensive to raise kids these days. we spend a fortune on educating our one kid so who can imagine doing it for two.
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what is the rationale for a society that invests so heavily in education that the fertility rate falls to below one? that's a society that will be highly educated until it goes instinct which happens pretty quickly if you reduce your fertility rate down to .5 or .6. david: what can governments do to affect this? the one child policy in china is trying to be changed but we hear in the united states suggestions that things like the child tax credits, subsidizing and making work more flexible may encourage more birth. do we have any idea those things might be effective? >> pretty much not. governments have been trying to do this since 100 years ago. mussolini talks about a battle for births. there are all kinds of incentives created by the totalitarian regimes of the mid 20th century to increase the birth rate not that they work.
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once people have gotten to two children, it's hard to get them up to three. i think it's hard to find any evidence of a successful economic policy that changes the decision-making that couples make about family size. you are staring at this dramatic decline in population in china. the workforce is already shrinking. the one child policy which was a dramatic intervention the chinese communist party did as been replaced by three child policy. the number of chinese couples i know who are planning to have three children is tiny and it's highly unlikely that china will be able to increase the fertility rate back above 2. if you assume the fertility rate stays where it is in a country like china, then the population will fall faster than 50% between now and the end of the
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century. the thing that is striking is if you look beyond 2100 into the next century, what's really amazing to me is how quickly global population could decline. katie: that is neil ferguson from the hoover institute. also david westin. be sure to tune into wall street week tonight at 6 p.m. new york time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katie: former president donald trump has been found guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. it will be sentenced on july 11 and we are expecting to hear from the former president in just a few minutes time.
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gura is at trump tower in new york awaiting a press conference. what are we expecting to hear from the former president? >> i think we will hear some reiteration of what the former president said day after day at that trial in lower manhattan. during the course of that, he would come downstairs to the lobby and he was upset about the way the child was proceeding and would rail against the judge in that case. he will do that again today with this new backdrop here at trump tower. it's become quite a scene here along fifth avenue. if you are trying to go travel downtown, this is not the day to do it. protesters who are cheering the verdict reached yesterday or
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across the street holding signs of their own. the crowd swelled and it's unclear that they will see much of anything. the former president is supposed to speak from the atrium behind me. we are listing for any indication of what the next steps are for the former president when it comes to legal challenges. he is keen to look ahead to november 5 to move out of the legal arena into the political one. he said he was upset he wasn't able to campaign during the course of the trial but the sentencing looms large. between now and july 11, there will be a flurry of paperwork. the maximum penalty for each of those 34 felony counts is four years in prison which could be served concurrently. it's up to the judge's discretion. we will see what happens and we will wait to see what we hear
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from the former president about what his next steps will be going forward. katie: we appreciate your reporting. he is the host of the bloomberg big tech podcast. we will have full coverage of the press conference coming up in the next hour. let's take a quick look at stocks hitting highs and lows today. eli lily hitting a 52 week high after goldman sachs says it sees the obesity drug market growing to $130 billion from 2030 which is upper my prior forecast. on the other hand, we have gilead sciences hitting a 52 week low after his bladder cancer trial failed in its latest test. it rebounded a little bit now but still a little depressed there. let's take a quick check of the markets. the tide has turned for the s&p 500, currently lower by 0.4%. we are looking for declines of almost 2%. that follow several weeks of gains but the streak has been
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broken. the nasdaq 100 is off by about 1%. that does it for bloomberg markets. i am katie greifeld and this is bloomberg. ♪ hi, i'm janice,
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and i lost 172 pounds on golo. when i was a teenager i had some severe trauma in my life and i turned to food for comfort. a friend told me that i was the only one holding me back from being as beautiful on the outside as i am the inside. once i saw golo was working, i felt this rush, i just had to keep going. a lot of people think no pain no gain, but with golo it is so easy. when i look in the mirror, i don't even recognize myself. golo really works.
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from the heart of where innovation, money and power collide in silicon valley and beyond. this is bloomberg technology with caroline hyde and ed ludlow. ed: i am at in san francisco. this is bloomberg technology. we bring you live comments from former president trump we will

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