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>> good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm tom mackenzie in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. stocks asia struggle as investors assess the impact of weak u.s. factory activity on the fed's path to easing rates. indian stocks tumble as early numbers come to a narrower win for modi than expected. plus, israel says there will be no permanent cease-fire in the war in gaza until thomas is destroyed -- until thomas -- until hamas is destroyed. the data out of the u.s., particularly when it comes to manufacturing, the ism survey coming in well below estimates, suggesting that there is a cool down now happening in the u.s.. repricing around the fed, expectations that maybe there is a 50/50 chance the fed could cut

as soon as november. september is certainly not all off the cards as well. in terms of the numbers on india, we will get there before we get to the cross asset story because you have a significant selloff reversing gains we saw yesterday in terms of indian stocks, the rupee is under pressure. bonds are under pressure, and that's because of the early tally of vote counts coming through from the country. it seems to suggest that the sizable win many heads expected, 400 plus seats for modi, is not what is happening. you are seeing a reversal of yesterday's trade, and it is quite pronounced, particularly around the modi-exposed stocks. across the nifty 50, you are seeing losses of 2.3%. again, indian bonds under pressure and the rupee down .8 that point to's percent -- .2%. further evidence you are now seeing a slowdown in the u.s. or

at least the fringes of a slowdown, particularly given what we saw around the cooling of the consumer in the u.s. another factory story, particularly when it comes to new orders and the pricing components within that, certainly the slowdown is coming through across manufacturing in the u.s. the u.s. futures looking lower, just by .1%. you do have a bit of upside coming through. ftse 100 futures in the u.k. looking to shine. s&p futures, unchanged. looking for the next catalyst. what would be the job openings data later today or the nonfarm payrolls? out on friday. briefly then come across asset because you did see a big rally in treasuries and bonds. he'll spell 11 basis points. the pound at 128 versus the u.s. dollar. brent also took a hit yesterday on details around plus.

looking to put some increased production back into the market as soon as this year. bitcoin, by the way, cross bank about 17,000, now at $69,000, just shy, down .1% so far in the session today. let's go to asia now, singapore where april is standing by with a check of the markets in that part of the world. >> really interesting how today for the first time in a long while, we are seeing how bad news for the economy is turning out to be bad news for markets. the nikkei, the kospi both in negative territory after the weak u.s. factory activity data raise concerns about recession fears in terms of sectors. energy is leading losses. after we saw the way brent crude traded, we are also seeing in specific stocks, toyota is among those that are the biggest drags on asia's stock gauge, against the backdrop of japanese

regulators rating offices amid a safety scandal that has hit a number of japanese automakers. chinese equities doing their own thing today. i think there is some optimism a stabilization in the real estate sector. i want to take you to what we are seeing in bonds because it is interesting how we are seeing a bit of my divergence. it was a off in japan and south korea, but look at how they are faring in japan. they are tracking gains in u.s. treasuries overnight, and that is against the backdrop of optimism of fed rate cuts. this mixed performance suggests investors are really waiting for more data. remember, we get jobs data out on friday. investors will be given something else to chew on, but something else is interesting in japan as well. we are talking about japan bonds, given expectations of

rate hikes potentially coming through from the boj, introducing bond purchases as well. that has prompted higher yields and seems to have been enough to draw investors to the japanese bond market. today we got a 10-year option that saw a pretty solid demand. that is what we are seeing in the bond space is for the board. we are seeing a softer greenback, but that does not seem to be helping the japanese currency, weakening towards the 1.57 level earlier today, and this is on a day where investors are kind of digesting the comments from the finance minister for the first time since late april/early may. we stepped into the market saying that intervention was effective to some extent. tom cole into the top story of the day, at least for now, indian stocks reversing gains that pushed him to record highs. as i mentioned, euphoria around exit polls that predicted a landslide third term for prime

minister narendra modi. haslinda amin's life for us on the ground in new delhi and has been following this for us across the morning. thanks for joining us. what is the latest with account out of india? haslinda: it is a fast-changing story, a fast-changing picture. not the same picture is when we kick off vote counting three hours ago. remember, we talked about exit polls, expecting modi and allies to garner about 350 seats out of the 543, but at this juncture, these are the numbers that we have. modi and his alliance leading in 271 seats, and for the opposition party leading in 184 seats, so the margin for the bjp as well as modi shrinking as we speak. his it's not what the market anticipated, hence we are seeing reaction in the market. if you look at the an fte, it

surged more than 3% yesterday, the biggest in about three years. today, we are seeing it down by almost 3%, so giving up pretty much all the gains which it had yesterday. disappointment obviously if this line continues throughout the day. we will get official numbers in the hours ahead. we will mill the trends in the hours ahead, but right now, disappointment pretty much across the board. tom: as you scrutinize the vote count that comes through after this six-week election in india, which states are you looking out for in particular? haslinda: there's several states in focus. the home state of modi himself, in particular, look at the last election in 2019. the bjp party secured all 26 seats. the other one is the most populous state in the country. 80 seats up for grabs.

the bjp secured 62. if you want to win this election, it is important that you win this province. also, maharashtra, they state that is home to mumbai, which is the financial sector. if you have been following the story, the traditional alliance in maharashtra state has fallen through, so it is up for grabs. we do not know how it will fall. of course, when it comes to southern states, they are in focus because modi and the bjp have had a difficult time trying to make inroads in the southern states. states are richer and more educated than the rest of the states in india, and i have pushed back on modi's pro-hindu narrative simply because they are not hindu speaking and because they want equality when it comes to the wealth of the country, better distribution. that is what the opposition

parties have capitalized on, and perhaps that is the narrative that is winning them both right now. tom: really fascinating, and a turn of events many had not expected out of india. bloomberg's chief south asia correspondent haslinda amin covering it for us who will be back i'm pleased to say in the next 20 minutes with further updates out of india. thanks very much indeed. turning focus back to the u.s. and the data we got out overnight, concerns about the health of the u.s. economy. expectations of early fed policy easing a few weeks factory activity data, friday's u.s. jobs report looks to be the next big catalyst. let's bring in a strategist who has a finger on the pulse of all of this. does the rally we saw, and it was a pretty sizable rally in treasuries overnight, does it signal, do you think, a turning point for these markets? >> as you say, there is a

question if we are at an inflection point. we saw the manufacturing gauge come in weaker than forecast. the pricing component moderate, but we have seen some heavy selling in treasuries in the quarter leading up to the data, so there were some short positions presumably taking money off the table on the back of the news, but if you look at the sector and core position of the data we got, we saw seven sectors reporting and expansion and seven reporting a contraction. in a typical inflection point in the economy, you will see more of the sectors -- pretty much an overwhelming number of sectors -- turning southward, and that is not what we are seeing. we are seeing weakness and strength pretty balanced at this point. what we see is an economy that is kind of incrementally moving towards slowing further and further, but is it the inflection point? i don't think so. if you look at the labor market, the fed thinks that we need an

unemployment rate above 4% to bring the market back into balance. this week's data that is upcoming on friday is forecast to still show a 3.9% number. that is not enough. that is not nearly an inflection point in the economy. tom: this is not the inflection point. i wonder how this all fits in to expectations around the fed's forecast, the dot plot we should be getting next week. there has been a debate. where do you think they land on this? what are you preparing for when it comes to those updated forecasts? >> i think it will be too much for the fed to acknowledge that they have made a mistake here and go from 321 cuts, so i expect the media to show two cuts. three cuts at this point almost at the end of the first half of the year, it just looked like they will be able to shop three cuts in by the end of the year,

so i think some of the hawks on the council will indicate just one rate cut, i think, and i think there are plenty of examples of that. i would not be surprised if kashkari indicated that, but i think the median will still show two cuts, and that will give the fed wiggle room to cut if things start going pear-shaped quickly enough. we are not at that point, as i said. we are not at a turning point in the economy, but the fed will want to give itself room given there are still six more months in which to get their act together, so i think that is quite a possibility. tom: always smart on how to think about the fed and repricing. thank you very much indeed. anyone who is arguing there is still too much liquidity in the system might look at gamestop and what has been happening with shares, surging yesterday.

it drove the meme stock mania of 2021 after what appeared to be a $160 million position in the videogame retailer. that screenshot posted by keith gill shilling and stake of 5 million shares. let's bring in charlie wells who has been following the twists and turns of this fascinating meme stock story. what catalyst drove -- is this just one man and a flash card? at one point a 70% rally. what is going on? >> i want to go on -- i want to know what is going on on keith gill's sunday nights. this is when he posts these tweets. this is when he gets on ready to show this position. remember that position also included 120 thousand call options to buy shares later in june at $20 a share. it really is this guy. let's not forget that keith gill is one of the main actors from

2021 who helped propel game stock over 2000%. it is looking based on the yesterday that this is not going to be 2021. shares started before at $23 and have jumped to eight dollars, and at $28, so a 21% gain, but again, no fundamental change in gamestop. this really was keith gill sending out a social media post. tom: this is about the fundamentals of gamestop? >> that's right. tom: he took a photo of what appears to be his account -- we have not verified it -- an e*trade account. in others reports suggesting e*trade may put him off the platform. >> this was an interesting story in "the wall street journal" reporting to -- according to people familiar with the matter. this goes back to his -- back to the rally has social media post appeared to spike in may where it appears they got a large volume of call options that sent

shares soaring. the concern is that his stock price manipulation, so they have been looking into potentially closing his account. e*trade has wide latitude to do this. we know according to people familiar with the matter that no decision has been made, but we know the sec is looking into this, and the crux of this debate is how much power do influencers have to manipulate stocks? that's one side. the other is that there's a huge following these retail influencers have. if you kick gill off the platform, do you get the wrath of that army? do you lose other customers? that is the debate they are trying to reckon with. tom: and that wrath can be quite something. thank you very much indeed, the latest around warren kissing and what that trade is doing to game and others within the meme stock space. thank you very much indeed. coming up, israel's prime minister reiterates there will be no permanent cease-fire unless hamas is destroyed as the

war in gaza enters its eighth month. more from the region next. plus, bloomberg has learned russia is pursuing uranium assets in niger. we will have that story for you shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the israeli prime minister has repeated there will be no permanent cease-fire in the war against hamas in gaza, at least until israel's conditions are met. he says the country is willing to pause hostilities for the sake of hostages. let's get more on this story. what is happening on this front? president biden says there is a three-step plan for peace.

he says it is israel's plan potentially for a cease-fire. israel coming out saying there will be no cease-fire unless it's conditions are met. what are we hearing? >> i think the language that has come out of israeli officials and particularly the prime minister the last couple of days, is pretty telling. the prime minister essentially saying that the permanent cease-fire idea is not something they are going to pursue at this point in time, namely because they have not yet accomplished their main condition, which is the full dismantling of hamas' governing and military capabilities. a three-phase plan was put forth on friday. subsequent withdrawal of israeli forces and finally, the permanent cease-fire. it is on the latter that israeli officials have come down very hard. however, the prime minister has signaled that they are willing to talk about a potential pausing of hostilities if that doesn't allow for an exchange of

hostages, and it is worth pointing out this does not get a lot of attention, but there have been mass protests within israel, tel aviv, 120,000 people took to the streets over the weekend calling on the prime minister to accept the cease-fire proposal and also pushing for that release of hostages, so public pressure within israel is building on netanyahu to accept this deal and push for the exchange of hostages. tom: that is an important dynamic, isn't it? that domestic pressure as well as international on the government of israel. what are the next steps? >> one of the main things that could potentially happen or not, the prime minister, netanyahu, is set to address the u.s. congress. we are hearing that may not go ahead because it is a jewish holiday, but it does still underline the fact that the prime minister has a willing and receptive audience in the likes of u.s. lawmakers, so that could be a potential day to watch out for, but even before that, you

may recall back in may, one of the centrist allies in the government imposed an ultimatum on the prime minister and said that unless he comes up with an alternative plan of what happens once the war is a with respect to the gaza strip, then he would be looking at leaving the government. that is set to happen on june 8, so that is another date we need to bear in mind as well. in addition, we have heard from other, more right-wing members of the israeli government saying that if he does sign onto this proposal put forward by biden, they would also leave government as well, so there is a lot of pressure on netanyahu from all fronts, be at the right-wing coalition allies, the centrist, the public, and of course, the international community who are watching what is happening very closely right now. tom: thank you very much. bloomberg understands that russia is seeking to take over uranium assets in niger currently held by a state-controlled french firm. let's get the details.

what do we know about this apparent russian plan to take over these assets? >> what we know so far is that conversations are going on about acquiring mining permits, but it's not clear what kind of assets that are interested in because the negotiations are at an early stage as there has not been a laid on in the terms. it is a really important company because it is a majority shareholder in other companies that do mining in niger. they maintain that they are not aware of any deal between russia and niger to take over their company. the atomic energy agency says it is aware of potential transfer of uranium assets. where it gets interesting is that this russian opposition is likely to split the market, and

we are likely to see the u.s. and allies wanting to import from a line countries. the only problem is they do not have domestic production. tom: fascinating story. thank you very much. don't miss bloomberg's monthly deep dive into the political and economic landscape around the continent. increasingly, the geopolitical landscape as well. south africa's election will be in focus as we speak exclusively to an economist and political analyst. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: forward says it is just two years away from offering technology that will allow drivers to take their eyes off the road and their hands off the will. the president and ceo spoke to

bloomberg. >> we are getting really close. in fact, we can do it now with a prototype, but doing it in a cost-effective way's progress we need to make. we have to build the architecture inside the company. we cannot delegate to our suppliers anymore. we need to also offer code in the company to control the car, but it is close. i have been doing this for 40 years. i worked for toyota for a couple decades. i have never seen a competition like this. they have full sponsorship of their government. they are the largest market in the world, and now they are the most important market in the world. tom: ford motor president and ceo speaking to bloomberg. some of the stories making news on bloomberg today, a glitch during a software update early yesterday led the nyse to halt trading at about 40 stocks displayed on trading.

this disruption is the third episode to hit u.s. markets just in the past week. the exchange reverted to back up data to resolve the issue and says it will cancel the bad trades. coming up, and in stocks tumble as accounts indicate a narrower than expected win for modi. we are live in new delhi with the latest as the nifty 50 and the celtics post losses. we are back in india after the break. this is bloomberg. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock.

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tom: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm tom mackenzie in london, stocks and asia struggle as investors assess week u.s. factory activity on the fed's part to easing rates. indian stocks tumble as early votes counts point to a narrow road win expected in the country's election. prime minister richie sunak is dealt another blow as breck six architect says he will stand in the general election. factory orders are playing into expectations around the fed with markets pricing and a possibility of a cut in november. european futures pointing lower. these are also markets looking

-- possibly a come through on friday. ftse 100 lower by 13 points. s&p flat after modest gains yesterday. nasdaq futures also flat. looking to that next catalyst. that's what the board, a rally in u.s. treasuries on the back of that weaker ism manufacturing data. for 40 on the benchmark 10 year right now. the pound at 128 versus the u.s. dollar. brent fell on the details around opec-plus, putting some additional production back in line. that is the expectation. $77 on brent. bitcoin cost $70,000 and it's the major cryptocurrency at 59 thousand. let's get back to india. this is the story at the moment. stocks and bonds in that country, slumping as they suggest a narrow victory that expected for prime minister narendra modi. joining me on the ground in new delhi's bloomberg's chief southeast asia correspondent haslinda almond, who has been following all of that for us. we talk about the notch to the

equity markets that has been quite pronounced. what is the latest in terms of the count out of india? haslinda: tom is not the same as we kicked off the vote count three hours ago. if you recall of the weekend we had an exit poll suggesting modi and his allies would win a landslide majority. by that we mean 350, that is the minimum. if it's up to modi, he's looking for 400 seats, which would be a super majority, but not the case as it continues three hours on. these are the numbers we have in terms of bj and its allies. we are looking at them leading in 278 seats. for the opposition party, it is 186 seats. they are leading in 186 seats, which is a wider margin than most had expected. remember that the opposition parties have struggled in the last two elections, but this

time around they came together under one roof, more than 20 parties calling themselves india, and they've adopted a policy of ensuring that people know that modi's wealth, modi's growth that we've seen so far, 8% is what we are looking at, has not been equal and perhaps it is that messaging that's impacting the voters right now. as it stands now, the bjp party and its allies seeing a gap that was expected and has received that play out in the market. you talk about the nifty index down 4%. remember, it rose more than 3%, which was the highest at about three years. it has given up more than a gains yesterday. tom: indeed, the markets clearly had not priced in this result. the result not rounded out as you made clear. six point collection, 640 million or so votes as they all have their own idiosyncratic stories, which states are on your radar going forward?

haslinda: there are basically four states we are looking at, modi's own home state, this is where he and his allies won all 2060 seats up for grabs. the most popular state here, 80 seats up for grabs if you want to win the election, you have to win this. the last election in 2019 we had the bjp and its allies winning 62. we are also keeping a watch on where mumbai is. you know mumbai is the financial capital of india. the thing is, with mumbai, the traditional alliances have fallen through, so it is pretty much up for grabs, and the southern states. the likes of -- they have traditionally voted for the opposition. let's see if the messaging that we see for modi has worked all the messaging from the opposition. it is interesting that he put in

a lot of effort in states that were dominated by the opposition parties, and he had the energy to crisscross the country talking about the motivation, the modi effect and how the country has done so well under his government. over the last 10 years under modi he says he has lifted 250 million indians out of poverty. but that doesn't change the landscape. 900 million are still below the parlay line. time: 900 million still below the poverty line. in terms of the majority for modi, translate that story for the market story. why is it important to have that majority for modi to have a sizable majority? what does it mean in terms of policy going forward for this leader?haslinda: we talk about a growing at 8% and is the fastest growing g20 nation out there. 8%, it's massive, but for india, it's not enough. as a vision, in ambition, and

wants to be a middle income country by 2047. for that to happen it needs to grow at least 9% in the next 20 years. for that to happen, we have to see very controversial reforms. land reforms, labor reforms, and modi will not be able to put in place all these reforms if it doesn't have that super majority. that is bound to be opposition to the changes he wants to make, he needs to get four hundred seats at a 540 three to push through the reforms he needs to make india a middle income nation. tom: bloomberg's chief southeast asia correspondent with a fantastic update out of new delhi, battling the smog. haslinda almond, thank you very much. now to the uk's election. staying on politics with a very different story unfolding. u.k. brexit cheerleader and populist that he will run for parliament. he will run days after voting himself out. he will stand as a candidate for

the reform u.k. party as well as taking over as the party's leader. our u.k. correspondent lizzy burden is here with the details. we know that nigel is one for a political drama. my goodness, to people it off yesterday, what is it mean for prime minister rishi sunak? >> he tweeted he had an emergency announcement to make, there is a whiff of despair around the conservative party. he announced later on that he's going to the eastern england coastal town where his previous political party had most of its success. and it's not as if we are imagining that the prime minister, but the effect it's going to have on richie sunak's it's likely to suck him to the right of the political spectrum. we have already seen this happening, him trying it fend off the threat for reform. we talked about it, it's why they've had policy announcements like a return to national service, this tax guarantee for pensioners.

but that effect is likely to be even stronger and it leads the center ground for the opposition labor leader to fight on. we have more polling data yesterday just before this announcement. showing that labor is headed for historic majority, bigger than tony blair in 1997, the worst defeat for the conservatives since 1906. he remember that song that was playing in downing street, things can only get better, when the election was announced it really seems like things have only got worse for the prime minister. tom: the conservatives will say that the only poll that matters is the pole that takes place on july the fourth as they continue to unveil what they say will benefit the u.k. that would be the argument for the conservative party. there's a television debate tonight, the prime minister against keir starmer, how important is this and how significant -- could it move the dial? lizzie: in the u.k., when donald trump's drama came out last

week, that seem to sweep up the headlines. so this, for many people in britain will be the first real spotlight on the election debate. you mentioned the charisma and neither sunak or -- is known for being in order. it will be interesting to see if they can grab the moment today. in terms of approach, while richie sunak is trying this fend off the right flank, he will focus on the center. he wants to prove he is not his predecessor, jeremy corbyn on either national security or economics. the labour party says it wants to be the party of change, it wants it to be an economic election. but this was the subject of bloomberg u.k. podcast yesterday. they are taking risk because of the fiscal constraints in the post list trust era. despite having this poll lead, they aren't offering to raise any of the main levers of tax.

our economist at bloomberg economics are asking how much difference will it actually make for fiscal studies -- the institute for fiscal study says you cannot just hope and pray for growth. our economists analysis says it might not make much difference whoever is elected in terms of growth on july the fifth. tom: fiscal constraints are clear for many. lizzy burden, our u.k. correspondent with the preview of that leadership debate that takes place later this evening and the u.k.. to the eu, the landmark climate policy could be under threat after this week's european elections. back in 2020 the block adopted what was called the green deal. still called the green deal. the commitment to become carbon neutral by 2050. that was the target, but with the energy crisis hitting voters while its, that ambition could now be more difficult to achieve. let's ring in bloomberg's climate and energy reported with the details around this. the politics plays in to this

ambition in the eu. in 2019 the climate election -- the election was all about climate. it dominated -- dominated the political field. are we seeing that against the eu's climate agenda? how much risk is it to that agenda and to these targets? ask as you mention 2019 was the time that election saw loads and loads of protests across the world and also in the eu. five years later, things looked different. we've had covid, we've had the russian invasion of ukraine, the energy crisis, something that has really hit voters pockets. we are seeing a backlash to that . we think in the elections coming later this week, that they will hold their majority at the same time the far right is picking up a large number of seats in that could braylen's parliament. next with the eu's climate laws have been agreed, but the key question is how those are going to be implemented, and that is

where we could start seeing the impact of these elections felt. parties could start to put in obstacles. they could not agree to funding, which will be crucial to see when these climate targets hit over this coming seven or eight years. tom: give us the kind of context in terms of size and scope, how it compares to other plans across jurisdictions. how significant this plan is and what the challenges are for getting it across the line. john: the eu was the first continent that agreed to be climate neutral by 2050 and part of that it some of the strictest measures and it wants to cut by 55% by 2030. it's also moving very quickly in this direction. just to give you an idea of the key laws that have been agreed. perhaps the one that most voters are worried about is this transition to electric vehicles. the eu wants no new carbon combustion energy cars to be sold after 2035.

we know that electric vehicles are much more expensive than their combustion engines and other rules are hitting. the carbon market which in 2027 will be expanded to cover buildings. that means if you are filling up your petrol car, you're likely to pay may be extra $.10 on the euro to do so. and these are measures that, without grants, without fundings, without subsidies, could become unpopular and further spur the far right. tom: they can vary much with the details on how the politics and the changing politics of the eu, in a big election week for the european unit could affect those climate targets. in other news today, shipping giant maersk racing is for your profit -- forecast saying contraction in the red sea is having a larger than expected impact which is boosting freight

rates. they now see underlying -- this year between 7 billion and 9 billion dollars compared with the previous forecast of 4 billion to $6 billion. quite the upgrade coming through. treasury yields sink as u.s. data fuels fed. a little bit of a modest turnaround in the session and the global chief investment officer at bnp paribas. wealth management is here. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. happy tuesday. not so happy if you are invested in indian stocks because you have reversed and more all of the gains they came through yesterday. the polls the exit poll that

suggested there would be a sizable mergers -- majority for narendra modi. the narrative is changing. it looks like that there will be a nearer victory for narendra modi in the party. you are seeing a significant selloff in indian stocks. the nifty 50 down almost 5%. more than reverse of the gains they came through yesterday. a selloff in bonds pretty pronounced there in terms of the tenure in india and the rupee under pressure versus the u.s. dollar down 4/10 of a percent. let's get market analysis and bringing global chief investment officer at bnp paribas are wealth management. they have always been this concern at least in a few months around. the expectation was modi would get the sizable maturity. he would enact his policy, the economic growth would continue. now there seems to be question marks. is it temporary, do you follow

this trend? >> i think it's a little bit of nonsense. but this is often the way. tom: which bit is the nonsense? >> it went up 3%, now down 5%. very short of volatility. people are very shortsighted. the ultimate story about india for the last couple of years has been the anti-china trade. some awaiting in emerging markets. they've invested in taiwan and they love the technology in taiwan. the destination of choice is in india, given the fantastic growth and given that china -- india will be the next china. it has been a big component with

a ton of money coming out of china. india has been one of the safe havens within india. it has performed well. this has become rich and valuation. it is always a bit expensive but now it's really quite expensive. if we think longer term we have to remember that india is not at all like china. it's not the same story in one of the changes modi has as prime minister is he sits on top of a more decentralized economy than china. each state has a lot more power at the local level, the regional level. tom: how does that inform your investment thesis. you do not think china is in investable, so how do you look at those two jurisdictions and how do you invest along those? >> i think people are getting a

little over excited and there are certain challenges for the indian stock market. if we take the i.t. services sector, it is the most famous part, the most expensive part of the indian stock market, that is one of the sectors that can come up with the most tact from artificial intelligence. if you listen to people like peter thiel who said you don't need --, you need verbal skills. by the way, if ai can program better than the programmers, why do we need the call centers because we will just use chatbots which are just better, more efficient and cheaper. tom: i could spend a whole show talking to about what's happening in india. for some it will feed the narrative that maybe you are starting to get up at nine cool the u.s. others are saying there is french's of a recession. we have softer data when it comes to the u.s. consumer. it's coming below the expectations. is this a benign slow down or is

at the start of something uglier? >> it could be a benign slowdown, it depends on how quickly the federal reserve acts and how quickly the employment market changes. pray for the consumer, a bit more than fully employed in wage growth has been extremely robust, which is why we've had higher than expected in the u.s. we could see that from it all pointing the same way, it's been great, it's going to cool down, which is great for inflation which means wage inflation should trend lower. on the other hand, if the fed doesn't cut in the economy continues to slow down, then that call becomes a little more worrying. given a higher probability.

it depends on how the employment outlook slows slowly, quickly and does the fed reactor does it sit on attempts to long, which is always the risk the fed could make a mistake. tom: you will give us more color. when it comes to the bond rally that we saw yesterday, do you see that rally having legs in the short term? >> when i look at the inflation, the inflation components, which have been too hot in the first part of the year in the u.s., we have seen revisions to the number of rate cuts from the fed this year as a result. it has been not very many components that have been too hot. it's everything to do with housing. the whole calculation of housing inflation is weird. it's very lagging, very backward looking and if you have real-time data, it's a lot lower. that suggests the housing cpi part should cool down.

things like car insurance, medical care, very specific elements. these things could cool and if they do inflation could be closer to 2% faster than you think. tom: really great analysis and take what's going on. admin, global chief investment officer at bnp paribas are wealth management. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: redhead crossing the terminal the last few minutes. airbus in talks to sell more than 100 wide-body jets to china. we will look at that stock at the market open at 8:00 a.m. u.k. time. beneficiary of the u.k. politics and the travails of boeing. airbus in talks with china around 100 wide-body sales. let's look at indian assets. what a sale in the session today. a reversal in more of the gains

we saw yesterday as the vote count comes out in india and suggests that modi will have a slimmer majority then please markets and many others had expected. a loss of 4.5% so far on the nifty. a similar picture on the since -- a drop of more than 4%. under pressure, selling off in india, yields up almost 11 basis points in a drop in the ute -- ruby versus u.s. dollar. this is the story we will be keeping a cross in the next few hours, the importance of india with the surprise coming through from the vote count. markets today show is next, more analysis on these markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.

anna: this is bloomberg markets today, i'm anna edwards. with cash trade just one hour away, here's what you need to know. india stocks