Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets  BLOOMBERG  June 12, 2024 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
♪ ♪ >> [speaking foreign language] ♪ sonali: welcome to bloomberg markets. stocks are hitting all-time highs after u.s. inflation broadly cools in may and wall street is awaiting comments from the federal reserve. let's get a check on the markets with a lot of green on the screen with the s&p 500 flying past 5400, up more than 1.1 per se -- percent today in the two year yield seeing a massive like lower with a 15 basis point move this year's bit in the bond market as the markets price and more rate cuts this year with a two-year below 470 and standing at 468 now ahead of that critical fed meeting. the 10 year yield is also below that critical 430 level.
12:01 pm
it's about a 14 basis point move lower. some midday movers, oracle reporting better-than-expected bookings come announcing partnership deals with microsoft and openai. the company plans to expand its cloud infrastructure unit sales by 50% and if today's gains hold, than the stock will reach the highest level on record. oracle is up more than 11.5% on the day. clay vio has been upgraded from equal weight to overweight bite barclays raising their price target $25 to 29 -- it $29. it sticks out as a top growth asset says barclays and is the fastest-growing software stock and it covers clavio up more than 5.6%. today's fomc meeting will be one of the more pivotal meetings of the year as chair jerome powell may provide the clearest hint as
12:02 pm
to the interest rate cut timetable. michael mckee isn't d.c. with more and we are awaiting that dot plots a what do you expect? mike: the dot plot is at 2:00 p.m. eastern time and what we expect after the cpi report is the fed will cut to cuts this year. they could go to one but today's news makes likely that we get2. most of the members are probably expecting2 and willing to change if they got a bad inflation report but they got a good inflation report. we will expect them to say 2 this year which might put them at three next year and given the fact that we got an election coming up, you can't trust anything beyond the first part of 2025. when they get started, that will matter. the timetable will be the key question today. do they let the markets believe as they do now that september
12:03 pm
may be the kickoff rather than november? or could he possibly say july? we will get some more inflation reports and another jobs report so a lot to look forward to in the news conference as well as the. lot. sonali: there is a lot of excitement about the inflation print but how convincing is it when you still see home prices on the rise and it is still technically one print? mike: i will let you in on a little secret. one of the questions on my list is how seriously the fed is taking home prices. nobody really likes the rent system they use to measure home prices in the u.s.. take that out of the equation and the u.s. interest rate for the u.s. inflation rate is basically where europe is. the european central bank just cut rates are do they look beyond that? could it start to go down at a faster pace? those are good questions because
12:04 pm
otherwise, the report is good news. we expect to see gasoline prices go down. you can see that at the pump but for the third or fourth month, food prices are contained, flat or barely moving. we saw a motor vehicle insurance prices fall for the first time since october of 2021. some of the things that happen pushing inflation up in the consumer price index have reversed. it's one report so we will see if they continue but it is a good start and it contributes to what the fed is looking for which is further confidence inflation is going down. sonali: i'm very much looking forward to your coverage of that fomc meeting and the press conference right after. the white house is also reacting to the cpi report. president biden said prices are still too high but today's report shows welcome progress on lowering inflation. many families are feeling
12:05 pm
squeezed by the cost of living he says and that's why i'm fighting to lower costs for hard-working americans. the white house senior advisor joins me now. even the president is acknowledging this idea of prices being higher, grocery prices have flattened in recent months but the price level has gone up and hasn't changed. home prices are still rising so how do you convince american things are getting better? >> what you heard the president say is we absolutely focus every day on the cost-of-living for american families. that's beyond the inflation rate which has been about student debt and childcare care prices and rental prices and so many things this president has been fighting about. what you heard the president say today as he is not satisfied. he knows a lot of family still feel a little squeezed as they go through the grocery lane or
12:06 pm
the gas pump. it is also important to understand where there is progress. to your comment, this is not just one month. we've had pce which is the measure of the fed at 2.7%. it was 2.8% core and now you see grocery prices flat or going down for four months. we have wages going higher than inflation so people are getting almost a 1% real wage gain. these are all signs that we are not satisfied, there is a lot of -- a lot more we want to do but it's important to see there is real progress and you don't have to just take our view. look at walmart and look at target. they are slashing prices on thousands of products. just like when you root for a
12:07 pm
sports team, one can be not totally satisfied but recognize when things are going better when there's progress and we are seeing that a lot today. gas prices are now below where they were a year ago today. sonali: i understand you may not want to address the federal reserve actions and what they may do but i want to ask you if the strength of this economy in the face of currently higher interest rates we've seen in the last decade a liability for the administration for the rest of the year? >> i would say an economy where hit an historic number of people are working and where you have record numbers of women in prime age, in the labor force, these are very positive things. let's be honest, if you went
12:08 pm
back and did interviews a year ago or so, -- not to quote muhammad ali but it would have literally shocked the world to know that the united states was not only headed for a downturn but would be the one place in the world where international forecasters are increasing their growth level and we are averaging 250,000 jobs per month that you are seeing growth estimated going up to 2.5 or 2.6 this year in a year many saw as a downturn. the most prominent of our work now in this recovery is resilience. it is surprising resilience but we felt that the design of the american rescue plan was exactly designed to make sure the balance sheets of families in
12:09 pm
the balance sheets of state and local governments, the balance sheets of small businesses would be strong now and would continue to provide confidence in the economy. sonali: to what extent would be helpful for consumers and the president of rates did go down this year? >> obviously i think there is a lot of us that would love to see mortgage rates go down and i think there is a divide between spreads that suggest that could be happening. the fundamental decision obviously of lower interest rates is one of the fed's mandates. we try not to comment particularly hours before they are about to speak. i want to say one thing on confidence, there's probably nothing that shows more confidence in the economy than somebody saying i will take my savings and borrow for my
12:10 pm
sister-in-law or go to a bank and i will start a brand-new business with all my life savings. what you are seeing today is we once again have record small business applications. the fact that we saw again today the record small business applications for those planning to hire, that goes beyond what somebody says to a pollster. the president likes to say that's the ultimate act of hope and it's also the ultimate act of confidence in the economy to decide to start a new business. we also saw it today in the news with record small business applications. sonali: thank you for joining us on a critical day when it comes to inflation data. it's a busy moment ahead for the federal reserve and that's the white house senior advisor jean sperling. also ndc's carlisle's washington day. we cannot bring you coverage but the private equity firm built
12:11 pm
his foundation in the nation's capital before joining carlisle, jason thomas worked as part of the white house staff as special assistant to former president george bush. he is now head of global research and investment strategy at carlisle and joins us now to talk about where the monetary meets the fiscal and given what we've heard about inflation, its front and center for investors and put the data into perspective. i think there is a lot of skepticism out there on how much and how much risk there is the inflation story right now. >> is great to see you and thank you for having me back. if you want context, we can go back to the start of the year. interest rate futures at that time, the fed would be announcing its third rate cut of 2024. obviously, the pace of disinflation has been a lot slower. it was expected at the start of the year but a lot of that has to do with the economy proving
12:12 pm
to be much more resilient in the face of the seemingly very high real interest rates than many expected at the time. with core inflation still at 3.4 percent on cpi and probably 2.6 on cpe, what it suggests is that 5% base rates are a lot closer to normal than anyone would have expected six or 12 months ago. sonali: i think you've been up pro at this because of your former experience in washington. to what degree does the fiscal start to get in the way of the monetary policy? there has been concerns from both sides of the aisle about government spending. >> you don't hear much about it in the campaign. yes, you hear talk from various quarters but it is remarkable to think about a fiscal deficit that is approaching 7% of gdp at full employment.
12:13 pm
what that implies is if the economy were in a recession, tax receipts were to all and transfer payments would increase, you could be looking at a deficit of eight or 9% of gdp. right now, the deficit is so large that the after-tax incomes of households and businesses is about 1.1 trillion barges larger than it would be if the debt were on a sustainable path. to say this is working at cross purposes with the fed trying to cool the economy and prices is an obvious understatement. sonali: how do you think about this in terms of short-term versus long-term interest rates? you do say significant cooling in yields today so where does that go moving forward when you look further out on the curb? >> i think the big story over the last 12 months is the extent to which the treasury has been funding the deficit in money markets.
12:14 pm
over that 12 months, the treasury has raised about 2.6 trillion dollars in cash on net. of that, 1.9 trillion has come from t-bills. so over 73% of issuance. this has cap long-term yields lower because there hasn't been the same bond issuance. bill's only account for 15% of the funding mix. at some point, they will have to turn back on the note and bond issuance. you can't have the weighted average maturity of a treasury stock getting shorter inside of five years. that would become sooner they didn't term out the debt to some extent. what is the price which this market will clear? what kind of yields when this issuance gets turned back on will we see? i wouldn't be surprising to think that it's 50 or 75 basis points north of where we stand today. sonali: i think you heard us
12:15 pm
talking to jean sperling as well and the resilience of the economy. what is the bigger focus heading into the election cycle? is it the strength of the jobs market or the level of inflation? >> if you look in europe and the votes that occurred there, this cost-of-living shock is really weighing on the electorates mind. depending how was measured, everyone's price basket is somewhat different. they've had different experiences with wage growth over the past few years. a typical household could have seen cumulatively something like a 7-8% decline in living standards in terms of the decline in real incomes as a result of this cumulative increase in prices. will also when we think about inflation slowing, we are talking about the change in the
12:16 pm
price level. many voters say i don't see low inflation because they are thinking about the actual price level itself, in many cases up 20%. to say prices are only increasing 3% annually from the 20% increase is something that also is not terribly satisfying from their perspective. sonali: how do you think about this in terms of the path forward? even if you have a promising inflation print, i think you're one of the people that is drawn concerns in the past about the neutral rate. how do you pair what we see in the existing data with a long-term trajectory of pricing in this country? >> when you have a fiscal policy mix like this, when you see the economy -- at the start of the year, people thought real rates in excess of 2% was going to suffocate activity but that hasn't happened. that suggest that a 2% real rate over time is something the
12:17 pm
economy can withstand. if you add 2% inflation to that was the fed gets back to target, you can think neutral rates of 4% or higher is what's reasonable to expect. while today's written inflation report makes one or more likely to rate cuts is your very likely, september is in play. how much space to the fed have two cut relative to the new -- to the neutral rate. there's probably about four cuts we can agree to get down to. people betting on cuts below that have to be expecting some sort of financial shock traction in activity. that's something that doesn't look like it will take place naturally given how resilient the economy has proven. sonali: we thank you so much for your time and that is jason thomas, the head of global research and investment strategy from carlisle.
12:18 pm
up next, we will talk more about the state of the economy with michelle girard from natwest on the fed decision in her investment outlook. stick what just stick with us, drumbeat to the fomc, this is bloomberg. ♪
12:19 pm
12:20 pm
sonali: this is bloomberg markets. the s&p 500 and the nasdaq are currently sitting at record highs. traders are pricing in earlier fed cuts in 2024 after today's cpi report showing cooling prices and ahead of the big fed decision at 2 p.m. michelle girard is the head of u.s. business of natwest market
12:21 pm
and joints me now. you have the market exuberant just from the stock market to the bond market. if you see the move we had and bond yields today alone, do you think they're justified? >> i think the market is certainly anticipating that it will be easier with more evidence that inflation is moving lower for the fed to move policy to a less restrictive stance. you see in the bond market, the market is pricing in fed rate cuts earlier than expected, more than had been feared would be the case when we had stronger data. for the equity market, also the benefit of the fed pivot being much more likely now and being able to look ahead while the economy is still showing signs of relative resilience to be able to think about the fed doing what it can to support the economy, avoiding a hard landing by taking -- by having more room to take his foot off the brake
12:22 pm
if it can before the end of the year. sonali: what are you looking for today from this fed meeting and the dot plot in particular now that we know what we know about inflation? >> i think the. plot is what everybody is fixated on to get updated guidance on the fed's thinking. we expect the fed will show that most things will be to rate cuts are likely rather than three. it will be apparent but perhaps not as significant as might have been the case had the inflation numbers this morning yield concerns around the down trend in inflation. our view is that the fed wants to maintain optionality. if inflation numbers continue to calm down and if we get more evidence of the labor market softening up and i think there
12:23 pm
is underlying evidence of that despite the strong payroll print come i think the fed wants to be able to move more than once before the end of the year without necessarily having to have gone against guidance it will have given today. mainly to maintain the optionality, the fed will signal today that the best cases to rate cuts but i think you will ever good number of fomc members who think it's possible they should only cut once. sonali: we have the story on the terminal about the trading desk. how prized in our these rate cuts? does the relationship between further rate declines and the stockmarkets own exuberant start to break down? >> the market is priced for almost perfection but a scenario
12:24 pm
that's incredibly positive in the sense it is assuming effectively don't end up with a hard landing. if you do with the fed being able to lower rates because inflation comes down gradually, and the expectation that market rates or yields will move lower. i think there clearly are risks as we saw on the first half of this year. it could be the economy remains more resilient in the fed is not able to do as much as we hope or think they can do today. of course, we have concerns with the size of the deficit and potentially more issuance keeping up yields. sonali: thank you for helping us out. stick with us, this is bloomberg.
12:25 pm
12:26 pm
[introspective music] recipes. recipes that are more than their ingredients. ♪ [smoke alarm] recipes written by hand and lost to time... can now be analyzed and restored using the power of dell ai. preserving memories and helping to write new ones. ♪
12:27 pm
12:28 pm
her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an and heunderlying issue.w ones. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock.
12:29 pm
so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. okay, that's uncalled for.
12:30 pm
sonali: this is bloomberg markets. let's get a check on these markets. everybody woke up and put on that buy signal. the s&p 500 is up more than 1% on the day and the nasdaq is still higher than 1.3%. after the inflation data this morning and ahead of the fomc meeting, you have the two-year below 470. 15 basis points lower on the day in the 10 year yield is that 425 gaining some steam in the 10 year, now more than 14 basis points lower on the day. on the equity side, a firm holding shares are rising dramatically after they announced products would be available to apple pay users later this year. people were worried about that move by apple.
12:31 pm
the firm is up more than 18% over two days we are also keeping an eye on fedex. it says it will cut up to 2000 european jobs in the company's overall plan to streamline its global workforce and cut costs. fedex said it dissipates job cuts will result in 375 million dollars. experts say the plan will generate annual savings is up -- of up to 170 5 million starting in 2027. with the view on the private markets, let's go back down to carlisle's washington day and we are joined by brian bernasic. we are excited to pick your brain. how do you think about the role that washington is now playing in the future of investment check out carlisle started its roots in d.c. with big defense deal so what does that look like
12:32 pm
now? >> thank you very much for having me. in the midst of our washington day, we have a group of air t investors in town for some time with policymakers and thought leaders. this been a wonderful day. it's great to be in washington. our heritage is in washington and our roots are here in the firm was founded in the late 1980's in washington. we've done a number of deals in investments in companies in this region and the government services area. we've invested $30 billion of value in over 50 companies in this area. a number of our professionals have been at the firm for over 20 years. we become a part of washington with friends and relations and their kids have grown appear and there is a network affect that's helpful and what we do. it's not only an understanding where budgets maybe going in opportunities made be on the regulatory side but where the
12:33 pm
streams are for future funding. sonali: so much question around how much the government is spending on certain parts of the economy. how does carlisle follow the money here? is this increased government spending fueling the ability to do more deals in the sector? >> if you look back to the time when david rubenstein was in the carter white house two today, government spending is up six times but the number of employees that are federal employees are about the same. the reason for that is there are tons of businesses in town that support the government that are here locally and that's a strong target area for us for investment. because we are close to the action, we can see the customer and understand the customer and where the trends are. there is a stream of funding and there are streams that move much faster. we target those. sonali: cat carlisle, you invest across sectors.
12:34 pm
if you could put into perspective how much government defense is part of the broader bullet private equity, do you see it being a bigger pie given what you just said? >> government services is one sector, health care and industrial, technology and financial services are the big five sectors and they could be 20% of the particular fund and we would expect government services will be at eight -- every bit of his old position going forward given the opportunities on the quality of our team. sonali: i want to get your view on the broader private equity involved -- environment as well. everywhere where we look, there are firms that see the environment is getting better for exits and we will start being able to eventually return profits to investors through sales and ipo's with the progress in 2024 has been fairly slow. what starts to turn that around? >> things are beginning to improve certainly and when you
12:35 pm
look at how active we were in 21 and 22, we are not at that level but when you combine the business performance across portfolios and you see some stability in rates and where the equity markets are and their credit markets are strong, we begin to see the old market improve on buying and selling and we expect we will be more active in businesses in the back half of this year into next year. it will be a steady improvement cycle and we are getting confidence. sonali: what is the roadblock and what is starting to improve? this is a day where you see massive moves downward in yields . how much could that help improve the environment for dealmaking? >> i suppose it could help to some degree but for us, our approach is always been to buy good strong businesses where we can identify a clear plan to make those companies better and
12:36 pm
help on the top line and help on operational improvement to drive earnings and we partner with world-class management teams networks whether the rates are up or down a little bit. over time, that's the process. sonali: you are seeingsonali: a market floating at record highs and another roadblock we've been hearing about his valuations. our valuation string to improve to the point where sales are more possible? >> i do think that's the case and valuations are becoming more in the zone. you see more confidence in the market with there is more certainty where the extreme is likely to be for the next year or two and confidence in the credit markets and businesses have grown into a more actionable zone on exit and those new deals as well. it's taking time for this to come back together but we are beginning to see the signs of it. sonali: you spoke a little about how you are investors and you speak with policymakers.
12:37 pm
we are months away from an election but what is top of mind right now for investors in d.c.? >> number of the topics we've hit on are certainly the election and what the implications of that might be on markets and rate changes and the likelihood that inflation will come in or not. those of the big topics that are on everyone's minds and certainly on the minds of the folks managing some of these rates. sonali: and less than hours away from the fomc meeting. the carlisle coed of private equity in the americas, we thank you are bringing us more about what's happening under the hood at your business. coming up next, we will talk about broad, earnings and then we will show if ai chip demand has broadened. the big topic in the markets today so stick with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ e sales tax with avalara,
12:38 pm
you don't have to worry about things like changing tax rates or filing returns. avalarahhh ahhh how am i going to find a doctor when i'm hallucinating? what about zocdoc? so many options. yeah, and dr. xichun even takes your sketchy insurance. xi-chun, xi-chun, xi-chun! you've got more options than you know. book now.
12:39 pm
12:40 pm
12:41 pm
sonali: this is bloomberg markets and i want to show you the 10 year yield. we are at the lowest levels of the day and the lowest levels since december.
12:42 pm
you are seeing a stunning move of roughly 15 basis points on the 10 year and you have the markets pricing in about two rate cuts this year, a more than 66 percent chance you see one in september. a 43% chance in november and the 76% chance for december. it's an exciting year ahead for the rate market and exciting for the fomc meeting at 2 p.m. until then, we'll talk about the stock of the hour, broadcom reports earnings after the bell and citigroup says demand will put it on track to raise full year ai revenue target to a least $11 million. jon erlichman joins us now. this is another stock with a lot of implications for the ai boom. jon: and arguably for them -- for the larger market because this stock is been hot in recent years we talk less about broadcom versus nvidia and maybe
12:43 pm
they are not apples to apples but they are in the same apple orchard and the demand for ai has fueled this company into the unique and exclusive group of highly valued companies worth more than half $1 trillion in the united states. the thing with broadcom's this is a business that maybe they don't quite make that chips like nvidia but they definitely benefit for more spending on data centers. as does their business designing ai-related ships with the likes of alphabet. you talk about the citigroup estimate and last quarter, the company talked about generating upwards of $10 billion from their ai related ships. if they share more upbeat outlook, maybe that continues to fuel the stock but it's been hot recently. this is not just in ai chips story, software businesses getting a huge lift and there
12:44 pm
are parts of the business that could be soft. there is a bit of uncertainty around that last time they reported so a lot to watch. sonali: you're watching the stock at a record high today even before earnings. when reeser -- one reason investors like them is its a dividend stock name. put this into perspective for us. jon: there is definitely a huge narrative that is growing with these silicon valley players around the willingness to take some of that growing cash flow and give it back to shareholders. the dividend forecasting suggesting broadcom which is ripe and growing its dividend in recent years is projected over the next three years to grow that dividend by another 10% or so. meta recently put its hand up and said we will join the dividend club. it's a number -- is another company that should see growth over the next few years with microsoft and salesforce. there's an interesting conversation around what these
12:45 pm
technology companies that typically maybe would use all of their money toward continuing to grow the company but they have been growing quickly and now i more money they can put toward shareholder friendly things. does that put pressure on other players in technology to issue more dividends at a time when the stocks have had huge run ups. sonali: we have adobe earnings tomorrow as well. what comparison can we draw between broadcom and adobe? jon: when we have this freight train that is ai, it's helpful to look at which businesses are benefiting and which are leaning into it and which are caught in between. it feels like adobe might be an example of that. does this company see a huge ai opportunity? do they want to add on to their lucrative subscriber business by having more ai tools? but there is this growing dialogue that if you are a traditional adobe user, are there more ai tools that will do the work that has been done by
12:46 pm
adobe in the past whether it's openai or other players like canva. that will be a key theme to watch into tomorrow. like broadcom, a huge stock winner as we serve recently with the reaction of salesforce. when you transition to ai, things can be complicated in the short term. sonali: thank you so much for the analysis. coming up next, kate anderson ceo talks about his outlook on our terms of investing as we watch the interest rate environment change right before us. stick with us, this is bloomberg. ♪
12:47 pm
12:48 pm
investment opportunities are everywhere you turn. do you charge forward? freeze in your tracks? or, let curiosity light the way. at t. rowe price, we ask smart questions about opportunities like advances in healthcare and how these innovations will create a healthier world tomorrow. better questions. better outcomes. sonali: checking in on markets because you have an s&p 500 still up about one point 1% on
12:49 pm
the day. absolutely flying with all that green on the screen at to the cpi print this morning. the nasdaq 100 gaining steam, up nearly 1.5% on the day. the 10 year yield is down more than 15 basis points now and that bid has been accelerating ahead of the fomc meeting and you are now watching the 10 year at 4.25 on the day which is not only the lowest levels on the day but is the lowest level since december. it's time for the wall street beat with two interest rate cuts priced into the market. let's discuss the impact on real estate. pimco expects more regional bank failures in the united states because of a very high concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books. there is the sense that two rate cuts might not be enough to fix it. this firm has $35 billion under management. there is a lot of exuberance under the potential for at least
12:50 pm
two rate cuts this year but the reality is, we have seen rates go much higher in a short amount of time and a lot of the maturities we've seen that could come do have not. how ugly can things still get even with two rate cuts? >> banks at record levels of unrealized losses on their balance sheets. there is $2 trillion of real estate debt that will be due over the next few years and one trillion is on bank balance sheets, 20% backed by traditional office so can get ugly. we had 7500 banks and we have 4600 banks today. i guess we will have 1500 banks five years from now so i think there will be a lot of consolidation and some pain. tangible equity is bank balance sheets are challenged intangible equities are in trouble at a lot of banks today. sonali: when you look across the real estate sector, you see the moves under the service the mode
12:51 pm
-- the most people don't get to see so what might show up in the next 12 months. as that comes due and can't get paid off, banks add to figure out how to get liquidity. it presents a tremendous amount of opportunity for those of us who have capital and dry powder and who are prepared to take advantage of this dislocation. i think we absolutely are in a bottoming phase. is there a dislocation in a buying opportunity? absolutely. sonali: the idea that inflation could be cooling and rates might come down, how much do the cuts start to help the market and doesn't mean we are seeing the bottom now? >> cuts will deftly help. i think jerome powell and the fed are smart enough to recognize that the bigger risk between price inflation and asset deflation is asset deflation. the bank balance sheets are troubled and it takes a while for rate cuts to work themselves
12:52 pm
through the market. it jerome powell, i doubt that he cuts today, i said the milken conference last month that he would because this month but i will push that back a month and i think we are getting a rate cut in july. i think we get to-three rate cuts this year and i think we get five or six next year. the risk of a financial crisis and a contagion with bank failures outweighs the inflation risk. now that he's been given some evidence that inflation has cooled, i think he will take the step in july of reducing interest rates. sonali: contagion is something people don't talk about a lot with an economy this strong. what becomes a bigger problem as time goes on at this level of interest rates? >> we saw it with svb. we have greater losses than we had during the entire gf see. it didn't take long. svb wasn't too big to fail but
12:53 pm
it was the 24th largest rank in the u.s.. that was going to be a contagion unless the fed and the u.s. government stepped in which they did. however, that is an easily repeatable process. many regional bank balance sheets are in trouble today so in my view, powell wanted to add that off and he needed to see some evidence that inflation has cooled. he needed to show the american public that he understands the pain they are seeing at the gas station and the supermarket checkout. i think that came in today i think we will see some easing next month. sonali: you have seen some real pain in real estate as far as valuations plunging. where is the greatest opportunity for you now whether it's in real estate or other forms of private markets? >> in real estate, we see a lot of opportunity on the equity and debt sides of the equation. there is a rotation of capital
12:54 pm
that's happening into alternatives today. we've been focused on demographically driven sectors for a long time meaning regardless of what's happening in the macro economy, the sectors continue to grow and health care is one of those sectors of medical office seniors housing is a huge opportunity. you've got demand tailwinds because for the next 20 years, you have a dramatically aging u.s. population and supply tailwinds because of the illiquid credit scenario. you have forced selling or highly motivated selling that's happening today. that confluence of events only happens every 10-15 years in the last time we saw this buying opportunity was posed gse. sonali: what you think about the private credit market? a lot of your rivals have stepped into the market and said this is where private credit can play a role. at the same time, a lot of fear
12:55 pm
is growing about a bubble. where is the balance? >> i think there is an opportunity in private credit and i think the returns are outsize relative to where they have been normally. there is a fair amount of cushion that has been provided. i don't think it will all be roses. it is important who you were investing with and certainly there will be some issues in some places. the private credit market at 12-14% which is 400 basis points above market norms over the last decade, there is a fair amount of cushion even to shield from a downturn so i think it's an outsized opportunity set but the word of the day is caution. sonali: what mistakes are people making right now? >> one of my sayings is that human nature is very strong driver and people don't want to
12:56 pm
see negative things. human nature tends -- that's why we want to be long in that short and want to think things are great and not troubled. the reality is that there are a lot of warning signs out there. there is $16 trillion of consumer debt, banks of record levels of unrealized security losses on their balance sheets not to mention real estate in the 16 trillion has 12 trillion a mortgage and 2 trillion of student. there are signs the consumer is definitely strained at this point in time. i think the market is ignoring the warning signs and clamoring for rate cut but rate cuts take a while to work through the system. sonali: we have to leave it there. that is canaan and, thank you for your time. that does it for bloomberg markets. just over an hour away from the fomc decision special coverage
12:57 pm
beginning at 1:00 p.m. ♪ her uncle's unhappy. i'm sensing an underlying issue. it's t-mobile. it started when we tried to get him under a new plan. but they they unexpectedly unraveled their “price lock” guarantee. which has made him, a bit... unruly. you called yourself the “un-carrier”. you sing about “price lock” on those commercials. “the price lock, the price lock...” so, if you could change the price, change the name! it's not a lock, i know a lock. so how can we undo the damage? we could all unsubscribe and switch to xfinity. their connection is unreal. and we could all un-experience this whole session. life's daily battles are not meant to be fought alone.
12:58 pm
- we're not powerless. so long as we don't lose sight of what's important. don't be afraid to seize that moment to talk to your friends. - cloud, you okay? because checking in on a friend can create a safe space. - the first step on our new journey. you coming? reach out to a friend about their mental health. seize the awkward. it's totally worth it.
12:59 pm
>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is balance of power. live from washington, d.c.. joe: next comes the fight over taxes, welcome to the facet show in politics as washington
1:00 pm
prepares for the return of donald, visit tomorrow and the grand debate over potential he making the trump tax cuts permanent. welcome on bloomberg tv and radio. we are one day ahead of this one. it will be a big debate that starts tomorrow. kailey: a meeting with house republicans than senate republicans and a meeting with the business leaders here in washington. he will make a full court press if you will in washington to talk about things including his tax agenda but that's tomorrow. we also have to talk about the news of today which was cool cpi ahead of the fed an hour from now. joe: our special coverage starts in 30 minutes on this fed day. that means a busy one for the markets today. kailey: let's check on those with charlie pellett. charlie: one word for you, record, dow and s&p and nasdaq are advancing now with records for the

29 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on