paul: it's almost 1:00 p.m. in sydney. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." asian stocks fall following wall street's decline on fire 50. the strengthening dollar putting pressure on the region's currencies, forcing the pboc to step up. also kind of preparing potential tariffs on china-made ev's, aligning with the u.s. and europe. first off, let's check on how the asia trading day is shaping up. pretty tepid end to the week. most markets either flat or in modestly negative territory. the nikkei flat as we went to the break. very weak yen, closing out, 1:59 at the moment.

cpi in japan accelerated after two months of slowing, but once you take out energy and food prices, the picture is somewhat different. take a look at china, particularly the csi 300. that's on a five-week losing streak right now. we are set up now for the first week in two months. the index really stuck in its 100 200-day moving average, approaching oversold territory. the rebound we saw in the hang seng not extending to today. we have the hang seng off by 1.5% at the moment. let's talk a little more about japan's inflation. it did accelerate last month, as i mentioned, after the government increased renewables, and that result that's the case for the central bank to raise rates again in the coming months, or does it? let's get more with mark cranfield in singapore. as i mentioned, if you pick into those inflation numbers, the

picture does become a little bit murky, but we did have headline inflation picking up after a couple of months of deceleration. how does this change the picture for the boj? >> maybe it doesn't because investors are still disappointed by what they heard. it was just a week ago that we had the bank of japan meeting and expectations going into it were very high. we could see some complete measures in terms of policy tightening to add to what they did in march, we got nothing. people have been pretty skeptical of what it is that is needed to push the bank of japan into any tightening measures, so we went into that meeting will be expecting that we would get guidance on when the next interest rate hike was going to come, particularly as the bank of japan probably had that cpi data and knew that inflation was starting to go towards their target, and yet, they still did not give any clues at all on

that. also, we heard nothing on the increase or rather the way in which they were going to decrease their balance sheet. i talked to a number of japanese bonds they were holding, which would be seen as a slightly hawkish measure. there was no information on that. they pushed it forward to the july meeting. if you put all that together, you can see the response in the market, which is that traders have become negative again on the japanese yen. that is the result of the bank of japan pushing away any decision-making until either july or august. paul: we have the yen just below 159. the trend seems to be pushing it closer to that 160 level. yet, there is a feeling that we are not going to see intervention at this time. why not? >> it is a huge dilemma for japanese authorities. when the japanese yen reach around 162 the euro's dollar,

pretty soon afterwards, we saw very heavy direct intervention. two rounds of dollars selling, and volume, and by most measures, it is a direct amount of intervention by japanese authorities, and yet, here we are almost back to those same levels again a few weeks later. now japanese authorities are saying, well, we have spent a huge amount of money and we have very little to show for it. what would happen if they go into the market around 160 again or somewhere near there? the market may just think essentially they are wasting their time, and we could end up with dollar-ian bidding higher again and japanese authorities are spending even more money, so it is a huge dilemma for them until the bank of japan actually change policies. the most effective thing to do would be for japanese authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market around the same time as the bank of

japan is actually hiking interest rates. we don't know if that will be july or august or sometimes later. meanwhile, the yen is really in the hands of the market, and traders know that the yield differential with the u.s. is so wide that it benefits them to continue being short the japanese yen. paul: talking up week currencies, let's take a quick look at the yuan. we had a bit of support coming from the pboc with today's fixing. what does this speak to? a managed decline or a line in the sand? >> it looks like a managed decline. today's action was because chinese authorities were spooked by what happened yesterday in the options market. there was huge volume in the dollar-you want -- dollar-you on -- dollar-yuan options space.

it's quite usual for the japanese authorities to respond the following day, so today, we saw a huge gap between traders' expectations and where the dollar-yuan rate was actually set. nearly 1500 pips, which is very big. that can only buy a bit of time for the central bank. there's not much they can do about u.s. dollars. when u.s. yields are high, there weak yen. the swiss national bank just lowered interest rates, which leaves everything stacking up against chinese authorities, making their child much more difficult. paul: thanks for joining us. let's get a bit more market inside our chief economist and head of global markets research and strategy at ocbc. i would like to start in japan with cpi numbers. the headline looked pretty good,

digging into figures, perhaps not so good. are you one of those that is sitting there waiting for some news, something concrete from the boj in terms of what will happen with bond purchases and eventual tightening and what it all means? >> actually, the cpi numbers are living in the right direction but actually missed market expectations, so that is a bit of a setback. generally, dollar is king because the fed is higher for longer and i think the pressure is really on the japanese yen, so as far as the boj is concerned, our initial view was they should have probably tightened in the june meeting, but they did not and basically left the option open for july or august, but without specific guidance, i think markets are a little bit in no man's land for the moment. we do expect boj will tighten, possibly by 10 or 15 basis points at one of the upcoming meetings, but then again, it is

already priced into the market, so i think it is a little bit of a washout from that perspective. going ahead, we do expect that with inflation going in the right direction, the boj will move. it's just that until the fed starts to cut rates, there will be pressure. paul: i want to come back to the fed and the yuan in a moment, but sticking with japan, we have the yen continuing to weaken, as we were discussing a moment ago. 160 now back inside, but intervention not in the cards at this time. is that your view, and do you consider intervention a worthwhile pursuit anyway? >> i think we have seen from the past intervention exercise that it just buys a little bit of time. it's very hard to fight the tide when the dollar is so strong and

having we data coming out from the u.s. that will add to the fed speculation of when rate cuts will come. intervention alone will not turn the game around. they may try to smooth out some of the excessive volatility in the short term, but i think it is very much a waiting game for a lot of central banks in asia, and for bank of japan, they would fall. if you remember, the u.s. treasury department has also now identified japan to be on its watchlist, so that puts them under greater scrutiny in terms of intervention measures they have been undertaking in the days ahead. paul: let's talk about expectations around the fed. we have jobless claims and housing starts to climb. we have traders lifting bets now on a cut perhaps in august, but at the same time, we heard from neel kashkari saying it might

take a year or two to get inflation back to target. what is your view in terms of what we might see in terms of easing from the fed in the coming months? >> i think the fed basically is in data-dependent mode. we have had strong inflation numbers and labor market numbers in the first quarter, which cause them to postpone the timing of the first hike. and we have started seeing slightly softer inflation numbers come true in april. it may take two more months of confirmation before the fed is ready to move. nevertheless, if you look at the dot plot, they have already penciled in one cut this year. there's no change in the total number of cuts they are looking at, and from kashkari's point of view, he is probably looking over the span of the next 2, 2 and a half years when inflation comes back to target. they will execute a plan to ease monetary policy by around two

percentage points. for us, we see that as push in terms of timing. actually, there's no real shift in terms of intentions to ease monetary policy and has incoming data continues to probably soften in the months ahead, i think that will open the window for the fed to start cutting rates. that said, we had the u.s. presidential debate coming up and in the run-up to the u.s. presidential elections, i think the timing will become of the essence for them to actually move before markets get too caught up over the whole elections process. paul: it's true, neither candidate particularly shy about spending. the yuan also on the list of currencies impacted by dollar strength. it looks more like a managed decline than a line in the sand. where do you see it heading?

>> i think it is very much a managed decline. in the sand has been gradually moved over time -- the line in the sand has gradually moved over time, and as i said, it's hard to fight the tide when the dollar is king. managed depreciation through the fixing is one way to try to not basically throw the door open at this juncture, but the pboc is juggling a lot of balls at the moment. china has a lot of challenges in property markets. if you look at this morning's fixing list, china said they did not cut rates, which tells you they are focusing more on the stability in the renminbi at this juncture. that also means there will be greater pressure, i think, that will build up over time for the renminbi to continue to weaken

as long as the fed does not cut rates and the pboc basically tries to hold a line in the sand, it's going to be enjoyable. boj, pboc, and a lot of the central banks are trying to smooth out volatility. they are not trying to turn things around at this moment as far as currency markers are concerned, so i think this is the general theme for the asian markets. it's going to be tough. paul: thanks very much for your views today. still to come this hour, a deep dive into opportunities in private credit markets in india and south asia, including the esg space with a capital. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: let's take a look at how stocks in hong kong and china are faring this friday morning in china. well, not too well is the answer. hang seng had been having a reasonable week up until now. right now, off by 7%. that is weighing on all the equity indexes. we had the csi 300 on a five-week losing streak. policymakers did moved to prop up the market today. a lot of read on that screen. a vstoxx suffering as well on the news that canada might impose tariffs in line with the u.s. and eu. let's get a little more on that story, canada preparing

potential tariffs on chinese electric vehicles, and that would bring them into line with some of their trading partners. our china correspondent joins us with more. what more do we know about this plan from canada? >> it's hard to say how high those tariffs would be. canada is said to be just starting consultations on this right now, and this huge pressure on prime minister trudeau to really match the tariffs introduced by the biden administration. the u.s. have quadrupled tariffs on chinese ev's to upwards of 100%, and the eu has also imposed tariffs of up to 48%, and now, the province of ontario, especially, which is the largest and most populous province in canada and also the auto manufacturing hub, is putting pressure on the premier of ontario, saying that china is taking advantage of these low labor standards and dirty entity to flood the market with cheap vehicles that will undercut

jobs, and there's pressure from the domestic auto sector as well, who is calling for steep tariffs. they say canada cannot afford to sit out, especially with a review on their free trade agreement between canada, the u.s., and mexico coming up, and we know canada's auto sector is tightly integrated with the u.s. one. they sell parts and finished products to the u.s., and most of their exports are going into the u.s., so president trudeau really has to balance between the u.s. and china here, and of course, there's the fear china could retaliate as well. paul: in terms of retaliation, what might we see, and what could the impact be on china's ev sector? >> the short-term impact is not likely to be very huge because canada is still a very nascent market for chinese ev's, but of course, china will be blocked out of the whole market before

making inroads into the country, and we know that tesla will be disproportionately affected because last year, canada did see this fivefold surge in chinese ev's, and most of that is driven by chinese-made tesla's, but other ev's like ne-yo and byd do not have a lot of presence in canada as well -- other ev's like neo and real id. of course, canada is trying to build up its own domestic industry, pouring in billions of dollars to build up their own domestic supply chain so that market barrier supply chain will just keep going up in the future. paul: still to come, our exclusive interview with oaktree national management cochair howard marks. we hear from why he is refusing to back away from investments in china next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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paul: veteran investor howard marks says he is not backing away from china. the oaktree capital cochair told us how the company is handling the fallout from evergrande's downfall and where they are going next. >> given that the u.s. is priced highly, and a lot of the opportunities for bargains are outside the u.s. obviously, china is on a lot of people's un-investable list. that tends to depress its value. we like to look at things other people are not interested in. china is one good example, but we are not macro investors.

we are not tapped out. we go where the bargains are, and we are finding lots of bargains in many places. yvonne: you mentioned china giving good opportunities in the u.s. i know you guys focus more on the loan side of things when it comes to your distressed strategy in china. how are you viewing distressed properties now in the mainland? is there a sense that you are adding to your exposure in any way or backing away from the sector now? >> we have been investors in npl's for close to 10 years -- nonperforming loans, that is. every banking system generates some nonperforming loans. china has set up mechanisms to get them off the banks' books. we have been participating for, as i say, close to 10 years. the legal system has operated as

it should. we are happy to continue in that role and we are not backing away . yvonne: you are kind of caught up in what happened with evergrande. i was wondering, where there any lessons learned from this fallout, and how much of the assets was oaktree able to salvage? >> the lesson is to be careful when supply is created by strong availability of capital. capital was made available to the property development sector so that it could contribute to gdp growth. it expanded rapidly and made use of that capital. it built some buildings, which from time to time turned out to have supply exceeding demand.

we participated. i think another important lesson is it's a good idea to get collateral. we got collateral on our loans to evergrande when many others did not, and we think we are coming out very well. as i mentioned, the legal system is performing for us. we have gotten control of the collateral, and there have not been any disappointments on that front, so as i say, we are continuing with our involvement. paul: that is oaktree capital management cochair howard marks speaking exclusively with bloomberg. some of the other global stories we are following, tiktok and its china-based parent company arguing that washington could have enacted less restrictive alternatives to address national security concerns. in a court filing, they say the u.s. government has multiple layers of safeguards.

tiktok has maintained there is no evidence the app poses a national security threat. swiss watch exports fell in may due to a persistent slowdown in demand for premium timepieces in china and hong kong. the industry says shipments fell by value 2.2% to about $2.6 billion. i exports to mainland china were down 18% while sales in the key trading hub of hong kong slumped close to a quarter. let's take a look. -- a look at some of the stocks in trade. we are seeing a bit of red on the screen, but seeing manufacturers gain. why? china has promised to guide capacity expansions, so that addresses some of the supply issues that the national energy administration is saying it will

mark, and that will help improve conditions and already you are seeing stocks rising. take a look at softbank as well. the softbank agm is underway. we will be keeping an eye out for details. for the next big move, they are going to look at ai. this is what is moving in terms of global market movers as well. i lot of red on that screen also. we will be back in a few moments with more. this is bloomberg. ♪

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price stuff. i was born to realize aasi. agi stimulates agi and drives evolution. paul: the softbank group founder speaking at the company's annual meeting. let's get more on what we heard from that meeting with our technology editor in tokyo. masayoshi son -- masayoshi-san pushing the concept of super intelligence. that i think is what elon musk was talking about. tell us a bit more. >> we saw he was much more

energized today than he has been in the past. he was very upbeat. last year, he was much more humble. he had made some big mistakes and lost millions of dollars, and he said he suffered a crisis of confidence, but the big talking masayoshi-san that we know and love was back. he did not go into details, but remember, he is sitting on quite a bit of a cash pile now, so he has that behind him, and they blessing of his chief financial, who has traditionally been sort of his foil. he has grandiose dreams. he said his mission is now to help humans evolve and to bring about artificial super

intelligence. paul: yeah, let's see how that works out. masayoshi-san famous for big ideas, big bets as well. anything else in the presentation that stood out to you? >> there were questions about buybacks, about the share price. he did, as he has done in the past, kind of scolded shareholders to think bigger. he said share prices are a small matter compared to the great mission that his task before softbank and shareholders to bring about the next ai revolution, so it was kind of light on details, but we really got a sense of how at six years old, he is gearing up for what might be his last big challenge.

he has said in the past how he has always felt that his legacy failed compared to other tech giants like steve jobs, and, yeah, it really felt like he was going up for something big. when he talks about big, we are not talking about pennies or millions of dollars. we are talking about billions. we will see. he did expound a lot on how arm will be centered to got pushed. paul: history suggests he is not afraid of betting big, but softbank's history is littered with some billion-dollar failures. chief among them, we work. are there any guardrails in place to make investment decisions perhaps a little more careful in future?

>> he did say that his experience in the past has been practiced for what is to come. he has many more lieutenants with financial expertise now, with m&a expertise, so there may be some financial schemes that might lower softbank's direct risk to his next bet. we have talked to executives who have spoken about a possible project finance-like schemes, about ways in which they can get other investors on board to support their next push, but, yeah. really, the biggest guardrail would have to be the past.

he has burned his hands many times and hopefully has learned something. paul: a very well bound her in hand. thank you for keeping an eye on that. we are also keeping an eye on a bank ceo saying a $1.5 trillion loss may change on financial conditions. he spoke on the sidelines. that was triple the estimate from about a month ago. the ceo said when asked about the expected losses possibly exceeding the number, it depends on the financial environment. expected losses may swell to ¥1.5 trillion. that's $9.5 billion. let's look at how markets are tracking over in japan. pretty much the story of the region at the moment. some modest losses for the

nikkei. the yen continues to weaken. 158.90 three against the dollar at the moment. we did have cpi out of japan a short time ago for the month of may. it did accelerate after two months of slowing. not as much as expected, though. and once you take out food and energy, the picture gets a whole lot clearer as well. let's get to the top geopolitical stories we are following now. russian president vladimir putin is not providing north korea with high precision -- not ruling out providing north korea with high precision weapons. he says russia reserves the right to supply other nations in the region. the russia and north korea packed as prompting south korea to consider its own ban on sending lethal weapons to

ukraine. the u.s. has criticized what it calls china's escalatory actions in the south china sea after recent clashes with philippine ships and crew. the state department says secretary antony blinken has repeated washington's ironclad commitment to its defense treaty with manila. the philippines is reportedly reinforcing a broken down warship that serves as its toehold in a disputed part of the south china sea. "the financial times" says the philippine military has conducted missions in recent months to bolster the resting vessel and fears that it is in danger of breaking apart. manila ran the ship aground in 1999 to reinforce its claim over the area, which china also says is part of its territory. they had of tibet's government in exile is calling on other countries to join the u.s. in pressing china for right talk.

he spoke to us as a delegation of u.s. lawmakers visited the tibetan spiritual leader, the dalai lama. he gave us his response to the u.s. legislation boosting support for tibet's exiled leaders. >> once printed by it and sends it into an act in the next few days. it talks about china's disinformation on tibetan history. after i came into this office, we decided to change our strategy a little bit to show we are committed to this office, trying to seek nonviolent negotiation, but if there is no recognition when we talk about

middle way, there is a middle way. one polarity is under the repressive communist government. we have not been just doing the talk, but we have been working very closely with the u.s. congress since june 2022 where we had the first hearing of testimony on the historical status in tibet in the u.s. congress for the first time. >> on the ground, how much of a difference does this make? how much does your life or work change? >> for china, sovereignty is an issue. that is also the reason why we thought we addressed their major concern. by focusing on the historical

status, it's more like we are trying to wrestle with china, so this will be a new dimension to our struggle. this will be a new tool to reach out to other governments and see if they can take similar positions as the united states, which would force china to come and negotiate with us. >> there were some reports that your government was in some kind of back channel talks. can you give us some kind of understanding, when did that start, where is it now? >> there was some outreach since january of last year. that has already been one and a half years already. there is an interlocutor that i have appointed and interlocutors on the visiting side. if you look at what president xi

jinping is doing to china and more particularly, regions like tibet and also in hong kong, it does not look likely that we can have too much expectations out of this. the first thing would be to reestablish contact, but in the last one and a half years, we have not been able to do that. so it is still stuck based on some of their thinking and how we perceive our base. there is nothing concrete to talk about. we do not have expectations if you look at what xi jinping is doing, but if you ask me, when you don't have expectations, we cannot think only short-term. we have to think long term. we traveled around the world to speak with governments, and they assure us there are a lot of discussions going on, but not so much visible right now because

of decoupling. eventually, it should take shape, and as we travel around the world, no more people want to understand china for what it is, and we have lived with china for centuries as neighbors. we know china respects only strength, not weakness, so we ask people, other countries to stand up for their values of freedom and human dignity and democracy, all those things. paul: the prime minister of the tibetan government in exile, speaking with bloomberg. china's foreign ministry has today addressed the u.s. lawmakers' visit to the dollar in a regular press briefing, sadie called tibetan government in exile isn't out and out separatist political group and and in the organization -- is an

out and out separatist political group. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: welcome back to "bloomberg markets asia." you are watching the india focus. indian markets looking good, backing the trend we have seen elsewhere across the asia pacific today. tech stocks leading the way. private credit is fast emerging as an alternative investment option in india and financing vehicle for startups, and sme has been struggling to find other sources of capital. joining us, md of an apac focused private credit firm. thanks so much for joining us. you are responsible for sourcing, executing investments in india, south asia as well. where are you seeing good opportunities right now? >> thank you for having me. as you rightly said, the opportunity in asia generally is

small and medium enterprises. as everyone knows, they constitute a significant percentage of opportunity. these estimates do not find funding from the traditional financing sector. it relies on capital providers to take advantage of the cyclical changes happening in the marketplace today, and that is where the impact on credit comes in, and we have done financing already in the space over the last 20 years in india. paul: in terms of numbers, how much credit did you deploy in india last year compared to years prior? >> over the last few years, the opportunity in india has grown significantly and we have

deployed over $230 billion in the space, both in terms of new companies as well as new opportunities as well as more opportunities with existing companies as they seek to grow their asset space. it has been pretty diverse in different sectors as well. paul: how are some of the challenges in india? >> on the one hand, opportunities are immense, but there are challenges as well, particularly in terms of the idiosyncratic nature. more importantly in the last several years, with the macro situation being the way it has been as well as the diversity of sectors, i think what is

important with the rising interest rate scenario over the world bank in india as well is that we need to be very cognizant that there is an impact on individual companies, which could work very differently for different companies and sectors, so the ability to be very selective, do your homework, and do the due diligence required to support those companies that will survive and grow in this kind of environment. paul: you have also got to focus on smart cities, urbanization, but india has a somewhat creaking electricity grid. load shedding is quite common. how does this impact your spending and the way the people you lend to are able to develop? >> this comes even more towards what is the need of the hour,

which, as you said, is to spend on making cities smarter. it is not necessarily only on electricity which will be the need of the hour, but in various other kinds of infrastructure. when it comes to the way we look at it, the way we would like to look at smart cities is by looking at the supply chain of infrastructure companies and helping those cities in the supply chain of these various infrastructure sectors to meet demand. at the same time, focusing on a combination of technology and sustainability in order to make cities more efficient, more smart, more sustainable to encounter the challenges of the longer-term. paul: you also launched an indonesia-focused fund last year

. i know you cannot disclose performance, but can you give us a sense of how satisfied you are with the performance and some detail on the assessments that have been made? >> the fund in indonesia is actually looking at an impactful sector whereas what we are doing in india is what we call esg integrated investments. as i fund -- it is a fun, and as a company, we are focused on improving aspects of all our transactions. we have focused on companies that we have helped in improving incrementally their environment, social and government aspects, both in terms of improving, for instance, gender ratios in companies or even accommodating

the risk of severe climatic changes we are seeing in the marketplace today, so i would say we are pretty satisfied. paul: how do you balance -- how do you find a balance between those impact metrics and financial metrics? >> very interesting aspect to consider. the way you look at impact metrics and encourage our companies more importantly to look at metrics is if they are not being met, they are a risk to the company's own financial future. if you talk of climate risks and environmental risks, we are seeing all across the region, we were talking about flooding a while earlier. therefore, to look at it as a risk is very much supposedly

part of our underwriting due diligence. the other aspect is that of social indicators. a more diversified gender balance definitely helps more fair growth for companies so they can sustain the future. long story short is that it should not really affect returns when we are seeking impact from these factors. paul: thanks so much for joining us today. let's look at how the indian markets are faring in the meantime. i modestly risked on day. we will take that compared to what we are seeing elsewhere. indian tech stocks are doing reasonably well. we have the rupee hovering near

record lows at the moment. we are hoping to bring you some life pictures of the sunrise at stonehenge. it is an important date, of course. it is the summer solstice today, and it is pleasing to see the sun. it is always hit and miss when it comes to that particular part of england, but this is the longest day of the year. the sun rising behind the heel stone, which is some distance away from the circle, and it shines directly onto the center altar stone. there first stones were laid in 2500 bc. always attracts a crowd, as you can see there. some are still cyst -- summer solstice at stonehenge in salisbury in the united kingdom. ♪

paul: let's look at how markets are tracking. you see some ev manufacturers in china. pyd, -- byd, neo, having a rough day. we have a bloomberg group out of canada which says canada may be following the lead of the united states and european union imposing tariffs. we don't know how much the tariffs would be and who they were target, but as we heard from our reporter earlier, tesla could end up being worst

affected because those other stocks export a vanishingly small number of electric vehicles to canada. let's take a look at what is going on in the currency space as well. we have a substantially stronger fixed in today, suggesting that policymakers in china want to manage the yuan's decline. the yen, meanwhile, knocking on the door of 159. less than two weeks now until britain's general election. the u.k. business and trade secretary and jonathan reynolds will join us live in a televised debate moderated by francine lacqua. you can see it at the times on your screen. this is bloomberg. ♪

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